Apr 19
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April 19th, 2012 at 8:33 am
Key.to
Thanks Tony and Eve for your help last night, I do appreciate your comments. I will only watch today as it could go either way. Thanks again
April 19th, 2012 at 9:28 am
gmsa
Thanks for your message yesterday. Re “BOE and an European Central Bank official signaled more monetary policy easing measures were unlikely.” I checked some of my sources and I did not see this news, so thank you for that – and the whole message.
There is more to life than chasing mondy as your e-mail the other day pointed out!
I took mosty of the day off and intend to do more
April 19th, 2012 at 9:31 am
gmsa
NTR
Sorry for all the typos – I am barely awake – yep and it is 9:30am. Some nice things about retirement = sleeping in!
April 19th, 2012 at 9:33 am
# KC Says:
April 19th, 2012 at 1:03 am
Eve,
Great comments in #106 yesterday. However, I do see that UVXY did stray away from its 4MA for more than 2 days on a few occassions. Dec, 2011 and Mar 2012 are two examples I think. So there will be occassions where the 2 day rule does not work ?
Thanks,
KC
April 19th, 2012 at 9:48 am
This is why I have been w atching the French election…
“Markets brace for bumpy ride after French election”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/19/markets-france-elections-idUSL6E8FJ7HN20120419
April 19th, 2012 at 9:49 am
kay, congratulations on fcx.. market seems to like its earnings report released this morning.
April 19th, 2012 at 9:54 am
Huge gap up in RAX at the bell – I’m out @ 59.67 – thanks for this one Eve.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:02 am
Ray/K
To sign up for free UpTrend daily Videos – both US and Canadian markets…
http://www.theuptrend.com/Index.aspx
just click on each or both “Sign up Now” boxes
April 19th, 2012 at 10:26 am
Slava: Thanks, bought some Lundin LUN.to for a speculative play…someone mention maybe they may be taken over. Funny I was thinking the nite before to buy IVN.to the next day then I heard the announcement.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:33 am
Tawny: Merci. Thanks. Muchas Gracias
April 19th, 2012 at 10:39 am
lun.to
Lundin is a strange stock.
they have suitors they refuse to sell themselves and company goes down just goes to show you if you got a good company and you refuse to sell your company they will destroy you.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:42 am
Again, we have a rally based on a bad news – I understand markets “hoping” for more QE, but I just don’t get it…. Getting killed on HVU which I thought was a “safe bet” today – arrrrgh
April 19th, 2012 at 10:43 am
funny
VMW vs EMC
VMW up 5%, major holder EMC down by almost as much
April 19th, 2012 at 10:43 am
funny
VMW vs EMC
VMW up 5%, major holder EMC down by almost as much
April 19th, 2012 at 10:45 am
tony, Osisko is down again today, what’s wrong with this stock? Very strange.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:47 am
I was doing so well with my trading this week until I shorted rgr this morning.. big mistake. Down $2k right now, ouch! Luckily I bought another 1k of gmcr and 2k of fm.to this morning so they are helping offset the loss.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:47 am
Slava: Hope you got in FCX when it went down, looks like we are going to 1398 S&P now.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:48 am
gmsa
are you trading the range on pot?
April 19th, 2012 at 10:49 am
Michael: Notice drillers are doing well, bought PD. Is it because of seasonality or valuation or speculation of takeovers. Happy trading.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:51 am
Hello Slava
Tony Says:
April 17th, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Slava
OSK.to
I would wait to see if it holds 9.57 before entering.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:54 am
kay, on I missed fcx, was watching other stocks.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:54 am
tony, I’m trying to understand why Osisko is behaving so poorly.. even on a day when gold is up. Company’s fundamentals look decent.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:57 am
CJ
RAX congrats on the trade hope it wiped off a big chunk of this years losses.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:09 am
It happened again with me in this past couple of days….watched my profit$ turn into the losers, CDN$ is partially responsible today. But mainly it’s my psychology & portfolio management process. Nothing heavy but a glaring example of repeated mistake.
Darn!
April 19th, 2012 at 11:11 am
Slava
You keep fighting the trend and trying the proof the market wrong. The market is not wrong very often. here is a chart that I posted awhile ago on OSK.to, I have not adjusted it since then, it is hitting new lows again and there is no indication that it will turn around. By the way, where is your stop?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OSK.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p82688618128&a=261833111
April 19th, 2012 at 11:15 am
Tony,
re.POT
No I have not touched it in past few weeks…should have. Lack of margin mainly due to overweight in metals & energy sectors short.
It’s in a step down process since early 2011. Bands are 51/47.50/44.50/42.25/38.50 on the POT@NYSE not CDN listing.
POT market is one of the worst of the Cartels.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:18 am
Tony #23 – Thanks Tony – No, just enough to cover a moderate dinner out for two LOL
$67.23! Paper losses continue… TCW.TO -$2,919.49; POT.TO -$1,394.89; CNQ.TO -$963.60
April 19th, 2012 at 11:22 am
Tawny,
#2 & 3
Good you’re relaxing & enjoying the things you love to do.
Keep your PB handy while gardening for occassional glance at the markets through QFolio. FYI…another software upgrade -minor one- for PB. Make sure you do that.
BOE commentary was there at many places yesterday AM. However, only 1 or 2 sites (that I browsed through) showed that ECB official’s comments on monetary easing.
Thx for today’s link @ #5
April 19th, 2012 at 11:25 am
mick, I bought 2k of osk.to this week at $9.80.. saw it go to $9.90 this am but didn’t sell. I currently do not have a stop loss on it. Thanks for the chart.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:26 am
CJ,
I know I’m repeating again & I’m not your age to advise you.
But why work so hard for few bucks & make only the brokerage houses rich at the risk of your own hard earned money?
May be just play 1 or 2 index ETFs instead of diversifying too much in small chunks spread across many stocks.
Feel your pain, hence these words. Pl. don’t get me wrong.
All the best!
fyi…there is a minor software upgrade for PB.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:27 am
kay, I just bought fcx around $38.23.. will watch it carefully.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:32 am
KC,
Did you notice my reply to you @ #56 with regards to your question @ #40 on GTE.TO yesterday?
Looks like you missed the reply again.
What did you do with that position?
April 19th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Todays close – do you think the “euphoria” about the bad data and possible QE wears off and we close lower? Or it’s up, up we go? Asking, because I’ve bought some HVU for day trade and not sure what to do – my BE 4.43. thx
April 19th, 2012 at 11:33 am
Hi kay. The drillers are likely doing well because Haliburton reported good earnings yesterday and all of them are somewhat oversold. I’m out for the next few hours.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:38 am
Slava # 22
OSK.TO
During March/April, insiders exercise of options [ $ 2 - $ 5] and selling
on market for + $ 11:
http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=osk
April 19th, 2012 at 11:38 am
gmsa #28/30
As soon as I read your note to Tawney, I started the pb update – thanks much as I had not heard of this one.
Would have been nice to be in EBAY this morning Holding 10 names altogether including the 2 in my TFSA am hoping to whittle that down if/when I can unload without taking huge losses.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:39 am
I think we’ll close lower, the hey the snow is all but gone here, time to get out.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:40 am
Tawny, Eve & Ray-Kitchener,
re. Stephen Whiteside’s video letters.
Another quicker & easier way to access them all (including the historical ones) w/o waiting for the e-mail is to check this site every business day AM.
However, every once in a while you will see no updates there – today is the same case. So far two letters from him via e-mail but no updates on his twitter page.
http://twitter.com/#!/market_timer
April 19th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Last night I listend to the conference call by one of the US hedge funds managers… he was giving his reasoning why he is now short lulu, lnkd and kors as well as other info. It’s a little lengthy but very useful.
https://www.yousendit.com/transfer.php?action=batch_download&send_id=1470079789&email=923e3aa177ea4ecce5a03741c657e820
April 19th, 2012 at 11:43 am
I particularly liked his reasoning for shorting linked in.. it’s crazy expensive and he just doesn’t believe in the business model.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:45 am
I feel I could be making much more from trading but I need a whole differt set up.. most of the time I can’t be quick enough to enter trades and they move on me. I need an assistant!
April 19th, 2012 at 11:47 am
Hi Slava,
Kay left you a message yesterday to read what I had written to her (Kay) on FCX. I don’t think you read my posts on it though because if you had, i doubt you would have bought FCX at $38.32 today as I had written 2 things yesterday that would have “hopefully” meant you didn’t buy it today at the price you did – and that was these: 1) there is resistance at $39.09 – the price today got to $39.13 and came down from there – thus, resistance held! and
and 2) that the 4 day for today would need to be tagged by FCX and trhe 4 day for today was under $38 – it didn’t tag it this morning due to its earnings announcement (I didn’t know they were announcing today when I wrote what I did yesterday) – so, as it didn’t tag the 4 day MA this morning, then it instead went up and further away from it – then hit resistance and is now coming down to get back to its 4 day MA (or CLOSE to it) – currently, the 4 day is at $37.78 and FCX got to $37.88 as its low thus far for today).
I hope it continues going up so that you can sell it at a profit BUT it may not get far beyond that $39.13 level (the high of today) due to that being a resistance level for it – IF it can get above there though, its next resistance is at $39.85.
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 11:50 am
Goor morning Eve, I read your post on fcx yesterday (most informative, as usual
). I wanted to be back in the stock and just picked a price and entered a trade. Seemed like a decent entry point… it did get cheaper right after my purhase but it looks like it’s moving back up now.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Lightened up on HVU by selling half of the position at small loss at pivot (4.40) before it turned down. Going to ride out the rest until the close.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:52 am
gmsa:
I think I was the one that posted Whiteside website long time ago, however, charts are slow in catching upside/downside, so just bear that in mind, I am using another that counts waves and cycles and find even though its not reliable I have more success. Happy trading.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:57 am
KC,
There is no perfection in trading! This is why I write things “tend” to act this way – i say “tend to” because things aren’t perfect AND things can change every day! So the fact that you found a couple of occasions where UVXY stayed away from its 4 day MA by more than 2 days is not any big surprise – you need to look at its history of months and see how often it stays away from its 4 day MA – and for the most part, it can stay away from it for 2 full days before it needs to tag it again. Can it stay awaqy from it for longer than this?? Of course it can!! Just as the SPX can stay away from its 4 day MA for more than 2 days too – but on average, they “TEND” to need to tag the 4 day MA if they have been away from the 4 day MA for 2 full days!
When I give ANY kind of numbers on here for resistance or supports levels for example, a stock of course can go above or below those levels and then come down (for resistance) or go up (for support) – just like FCX did today for example as it had resistance at $39.09 and it went to $39.13 and then came down. If you are wanting perfection KC, then you won’t find it in the stock markets as it is very rare that anything in the stock market will act 100% of the time as it has shown it has in the past – or will go PRECISELY to a target number of say support or resistance and then reverse course in price – the markets just are not precise that way! So, I am sure if you look some more, you will find that UVXY has been away from its 4 day MA for MORE than just 2 full days – but when I write things, I often say that this is not 100% as things are – OR I’ll say things like: things can change every week – if not every day – etc etc – or I’ll give a price as a “level” or “area” to show that the price will not be EXACT to get to that resistance or support or target price etc. – things are never EXACT in the markets – and that is the point of why I am writing this in response to your post to me today on UVXY. This is what must be remembered AND understood about the markets!
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 11:59 am
Kay: Why 1398? I see about 1385 – 1390 max.
April 19th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
An observation:
$SPX @ 102% higher than it’s March 2009 lows.
@ 12% lower than the all time high.
Lowered Q1 expectations are being beaten hand over fist by most of the cos. so far in past week or so. But still most cos. are going down
1. because of poor visibility to the next quarter
2. profit taking after such a huge run from oct. 2011 and
3. Difficult to beat q2 (next q.) comparatives from last year.
Spain’s stocks are down @ 40% from early last year. Remember Greece had the similar chart patterns once the qeustions were being raised. EU banking sector very close to their lows from last fall lows.
US sectors that lead the markets higher from last fall XLK, XLF & XHB are rolling over. XLY still very persistent & showing strength.
Nothing broken down yet.
Will see how this & the next week ends when most majors are done reporting their Q1.
And then how the charts looks on all of these.
April 19th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Slava,
Ok hun – good to know it’s heading back up again after almost touching its 4 day MA – just be aware though of those resistance levels for it
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Eve, what do you think about shorting LNKD for a hold?
April 19th, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Re the markets:
Frances Horodelski (spelling??) from BNN said today that this week (options expiration week) is the most bullish week of Q2 – and that after this week, the markets go down into the summer months. This coincides with the Bradley date that is coming up on Monday – it shows the markets turning down until June – when the next Bradley date comes out on June 12th – this shows the markets going up from there until July when the next Bradley date comes at July 28th.
The Bradley dates states that it doesn’t forecast “market direction” – that it just forecasts “market turns” – BUT, since 2011, if you look at the Bradley dates, each date hit shown on the sideograph, had the markets go in the direction of what is shown on the sideograph – and the same thus far has occurred this year too! So, the sideograph shows that starting on Monday next week, the markets will go down until the Bradley date in June. Here’s the website where these dates on this graph can be seen (for both 2011 and 2012):
http://www.amanita.at/FAQ/FragenzumBradley-Siderograph/Bradley-Siderograph/
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 12:13 pm
eve,
would you agree that by indications WN.TO is about to make a W pattern that you have written on.. and if so would you think a initial position here would be wise .. thx
April 19th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
I overlayed rgr and lnkd chart for today and they are moving in tandem even though one is a gun co. and the other internet media.. interesting.
April 19th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Eve, thank you for post #51.. incredible! I better find more stocks to short.
April 19th, 2012 at 12:21 pm
BNN was just quoting Don V. that he was going to cash two weeks earlier this year.
April 19th, 2012 at 12:22 pm
I have a day off today.. so nice.
April 19th, 2012 at 12:23 pm
CMG is reporting earnings after hours.. but I’ll be disciplined and stay on the sidelines although I’m very tempted to short.
April 19th, 2012 at 12:27 pm
CJ,
Good that you got out of RAX today. I wish though that you had gotten out the last time it hit over $59 (2 weeks ago) as you had several buying points in these last 2 weeks of where you could have bought RAX at lower levels and sold it for $2 higher and that could have been done at least 2 times in these past 2 weeks (I wrote to you back then saying $57 was support as was $55 and twice, it went to both these support points and bounced up by $2 each time)!
If you had bought it at its support of $55 level last week for example (it went to $54.51) as I had written 2 weeks ago was a support level, then selling it today could have given you close to a $5 gain in it rather than the less than $1 gain on it that you ended up getting for it by having held it for these past 2 weeks.
Please just remember CJ – that sometimes it is better to get out of a trade that was gotten in to by like “accident” (as you got into RAX on the day as it was coming down in the afternoon by chasing it up from the morning’s open that day) at either break even OR a bit of a profit OR even a BIT of a loss too – IF you know (or can see from the charts OR know by the feel of the markets) that lower prices will be coming soon (which had been the discussion on here 2 weeks ago when you had bought into RAX) such that you can then buy a stock at a lower price and then ride it up by say $1 or $2 several different times for buys and sells in that same time period that you’re choosing to hold on to a stock that has gone down from your buy price and you’re now “waiting” for it to get back up to your buy price such that you can sell at break even OR a bit of a profit as you did with RAX today. It’s better to just “trade” stocks rather than just buy at a high and see it go down and then you’re “waiting” for it to get back up to your buy in price – you know what I mean CJ? I know I said this same thing to you in January too for COG – sorry to be repeating myself – but I just thought it is good to keep such a strategy in mind rather than buying at a high price and then having the stock go down and now you’re in wait mode.
Hope you don’t mind me saying this CJ
just trying to give you a better strategy is all 
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Slava,
Yes, you can short LNKD – BUT don’t do it until tomorrow – wait til it gets to around $107/ $108 (it might go to $110 tomorrow too for options expiration – it isn’t known if it will be $105 tomorrow or $110 as both have similar levels of call volumes) – BUT on Monday, it should come down to around the mid keltner level at around $100 / $101. So, i would wait until tomorrow to short it (as it often does big up moves in a day after 2 pm EST – so, we’ll see if it does it today again too). If it does do its big 2 pm move today, then it might get to $108 – it “could” be a short then as it will come back to its 4 day MA for tomorrow which will be around $103/ $104 level.
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Anna/TO: Not that my opinion counts against the market manipulators and plunge protection team, the time to short is approaching. Despite the cheerleaders and those stating recovery, unemployment is moving up in the US, manufacturing is moving down, and housing sales and prices continue to move lower. Throw in the basket cases in Europe and the macro outlook is to the downside. The media will have you believe that earnings are beating estimates, etc. blah, blah, blah. Take the US banks 1st Q earnings as compared to 2011 as follows:
Bank 2011 2012
BAC 2,049 1,454
JPM 5,600 5,400
MS 984 -78
GS 2,735 2,109
And these big 4 play a huge part in stock manipulation. You would think they would all have higher earnings in a recovery?
April 19th, 2012 at 12:42 pm
bob,
Yes, if WN.TO gets down to around $61 (which is where its first dip of the “W” was at $61.01), and bounces up from there, then yes, it looks like a W pattern could get completed – and WN is a defensive play – so if the markets are going to fall starting next week, then it would make sense for WN to rise during that time. The price could go a bit lower too OR a bit higher than the $61 low and still have the W get completed.
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Eve, thanks for lnkd..
April 19th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Kay,
re.#45
Glad to note that you introduced that site to this board.
Charts always lag the fundamentals & the perception of what’s coming next. Still good consistent charting technician can project the range and the targets, ofcourse all depends on the underlying volatility.
My carving of THE crystal ball is still not done yet
April 19th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
#60
Ray-Kitchener – I completely agree with your longer term view, but was puzzled with today’s market action (esp. volatility). Took day trade position in HVU expecting some fireworks based on econ data, and boy, the fireworks did I get!
Anyways, managed to trade my way out from what was a big loss in am – yes, averaged down based on pivots and it all worked out – closed the trade for a small profit. Hardly was worth the time and the aggravation 
April 19th, 2012 at 12:51 pm
gmsa
Re #28 . Thank you. I downloaded PB update yesterday – don’t know what changes there are but I now see date and time at top of screen
I can watch my portfolio thru my bank site at RBC Direct. Also have several other sites saved.
Re#48 – great report. BTW, I am hearing losts of warnings now about Europe, even from Lagarde.
April 19th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
gmsa,
Thanks for the info on Whiteside – i receive his daily videos BUT I never watch them (I watched a few of them a year ago when I first subscribed to them but since then, I never watch them). Thanks anyway though for the info
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Slava
OSK.to
look at its weekly chart and put a 200MA on it and there was your support.
and BANG!!! right on it.
Had to leave for a short meeting and I heard on the news there was so toxic fumes Nitrogen Dioxide so this should be something to watch out for it could put the stock in jeopardy
April 19th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Slava,
Just saw your post 39 – all stocks in my list AND ALL stocks that the insiders have been running up in price for the last 3 to 4 months – interesting then that this man now considers them all a short
very interesting indeed 
so, thanks for that info Slava 
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Re UpTrend
I have been a susbscriber for about 6 years. Certainly not going to argue, though, about introducing to the board…
The free daily reports provide a lot of good informnation – the proprietary data is actually very worthwhile and works well for Swing Trading… accordingly I have not been knocked out of my bears (yet?)
I think HVU at these levels is a worthwhile hold… Whiteside does too. His videos still show the VIX on the buy side. As we know if danger/fear presents itself the VIX products can escalate very fast.
Subscribers can look up many, many stocks and ETs…. a few of the bloggers here, have told me they became subscribers. This is not for day trading.
April 19th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Ray-K
Re #60 – RIGHT ON!! IMO
April 19th, 2012 at 1:04 pm
spx Option Expriry & the April Option exp. data:
apr. op. exp. since year 2000
8 times +ve : avg. for this +3.09%
4 times -ve : avg. for this -1.15%
since last apr. spx monthly op. exp.
6 positves : avg. +2.06%
6 negative : avg. -2.39%
Now Thurs. & Fridays historical behaviour during past 24months’ op. exp.
avg. return : thurs. -0.11% Fri: -0.04%
DYODD
April 19th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Eve
SLF
since you have studied patterns more then I did, do you think april 12 and the following days are what is considered a flag pattern on slf.to
thx for your opinion.
April 19th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Montreal Exchange
Odd enough hereI said in the past there are companies that once in a while they are in the top
today
sjr, erf, lun haven’t seen them in a while( think it is months if not years.
April 19th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Eve & Tawny,
Acknowledge your respective posts. Thx to you both.
Tawny: that’s what I thought about you introducing it to this board but then again, I can’t rely too much on my memory. (I can somehow remember & analyse these historical data from my brain with great accuracy – as posted @ #71
).
Regardless whoever did it & reposted it again here -my sincere thanks to all.
I love to learn from Stephen Whiteside’s analysis, various data points & signals that he looks at. How he prevents his ‘thoughts’ coming in the way of his money management.
)
The other thing I like is he follows certain things and then depending on the charts takes long & short positions. Like he loves to call his ’5 stocks’ – v, ma, cme, goog & aapl. He has a position on these always, either long or short.
If you know something well why not play it from both sides ?(Eve & Tony – I know you don’t do it but try doing it – even a small time bet just for testing the waters – it’s really NOT that scary or disastrous for any non-taxable portf….although Slava & I are addicted to it – so pl. beware!
April 19th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Re the SPX:
Ron/AB pointed out (about 2 to 3 weeks ago) that there was the central pivot at 1390 level (it’s at 1389) (this is a resistance point once the SPX fell below that pivot) – and in sync with this, the SPX has not been able to get significantly above that pivot point since its run back up above 1375 (it got as high as 1392 this week BUT this is not any significant amount above the c pivot at 1389) – so, as it has not been able to get above that CP level, then this shows there is a weakening in the SPX that was not there from Jan til March – this suggests the next major move would be to the downside rather than more upside to the 1400 area plus.
Also, there is a pattern showing on the SPX of a potential bear flag – and if this gets completed, then the SPX should go down to AT LEAST 1357 (this was the low point for the first down stroke of the W seen in the past few weeks). IF it bounces up from around 1350 and above, then it could potentially become a W pattern (which is bullish). IF it goes below 1350, then its next major support is at 1340. If that can’t hold, then easily it could head to 1300 to see if support could be found there. There’s more likelihood right now of going to the downside – so, expect those kind of support prices to be tested in the very near term (within the next few weeks).
The 50 day MA is at 1378 (where the SPX is right now as I write this) and the 200 day MA is at 1273.
Any of these price levels I’ve written herein can act as support levels
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 1:32 pm
gmsa
One reason why I don’t short is that most of my trading capital is in an RRSP.
which you can’t short if memory serves me right.
April 19th, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Hi tony,
re SLF on the NYSE:
Yes, there was a bull flag pattern showing that developed around April 12th to the 16th (took 3 days to complete – one big up day was the flag pole and the next 2 down days were the flag/ pennant – it was more of a bull pennant actually) – then complete the pattern by going up from there on the 4th day and thereafter. So yes, it was a bullish pattern on the chart
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Eve
SPX
On a daily chart 18MA has been resistance in the last few days.
9 just crossed below 50 and 18 is 13 points from there. if we do get a 18/50 TIMBER!!!
April 19th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Tony,
exactly the reason why I wrote “non-taxable” portf. @ #74.
Between, if CRA allows shorting on individual securities – I will soon be a millionaire & retire by next year
(I dream, anyways!)
April 19th, 2012 at 1:37 pm
CJ,
re RAX:
BIG reversal today!! WOW!! Glad you sold it for a profit. I had told you a few weeks ago around the time you bought it that it should go to $60 by April options expiration – and poof, it went straight to $60 – that’s just pure manipulation!!! Anyway, glad you took profits today. IF the markets go down from here (as I suspect they will), then look to buy RAX back at around $50 or $48 as it will get down to those levels IF the SPX goes below 1340 and heads to around 13200 or to its 200 day ma of 1273.
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
#79 meant to say,
if CRA allows shorting on individual securities in REGISTERED A/Cs…
April 19th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Tony: You are correct – you need margin. Time to sell you house. LOL
April 19th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
tony,
re the SPX:
Yes I know – I look at the keltner channel (not the 18 day MA on my charts) (and the mid kelt is at the 20 day MA) – and yes, it hasn’t been able to get above the mid keltner in this past week which means it will be trading in the lower part of the keltner – and the kelt bottom is currently at 1349.
I consider the 18 day MA and the 20 day MA too suimilar to put both on the chart – so, i get wghat i need with just the 20 day MA (which is the mid keltner
).
Thanks tony
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
gmsa, I’ve had some very bad shorting experiences as documented on this site in the last few months. Lost a lot of money shorting cmg and lulu (and some on CP but made that money back by trading cp).
April 19th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Slava,
#84
Same here.
NOw pl. sing with me ‘wind at my back’ song!
April 19th, 2012 at 1:59 pm
gmsa
Whiteside has been playing his 5 favorites for a long time. I have had quite a few conversations with him…. he does so well I’m sure he has a grand net worth. Wish some of that had rubbed off me… I always regret when I do not follow his charts (except when the markets were wildly volatile – with no trend). He told me his RSPs were all in HBP products. Yep. BTW, although he can see a bit, he is legally blind. I went to a presentation of his several years ago in Vancouver (I was living in Kelowna at the time).
April 19th, 2012 at 2:00 pm
gmsa, singing the song in Russian as I’m typing ..lol
Good luck with your trades, my friend.
April 19th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Speaking of shorting, this a.m. was the perfect time to short aapl, pcln, cmg and other momo stocks. I shorted RGR which is up..
April 19th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Slava,
GIRL how many times do I have to tell you (man you are stubborn)
short when it opens above the 4MA to the and then you exit the strategy.
RGR at the open was a short went right to the 4MA before heading higher.
10 min chart on this one 50MA was your stop and where is price headed as we speak again on to the 50MA
April 19th, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Slava
AAPl you got another 20$ to short on this one it will retest the 50MA if it fails as support earnings would have been the catalyst that brought the house down.
April 19th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Tawny,
Thx for sharing that info.
I mostly invest my all regd. a/c money in HBP products as well…wish I accumulated wealth like him
Irony is when I liquidated some of those (HBP) to take individual stock positions in them in last 5-6months got beaten up badly…RIM @ 17-19 level. COG – presplit 82-86 level.
Now back to ONLY the etfs SPXU, HXD & HGD positions.
I’m thankful to Stephan for the lessons he has taught me & am still learning.
.
Slava,
#87, 88
sometimes I feel when we take a position long or short, mr. market sees that and does exactly the opposite. oh well…
April 19th, 2012 at 2:23 pm
HVU.TO
Is anyone trading this today? R2 is 4.73, Fib R3 is 4.72, Break Out Long is 4.64.
However not sure about holding this “wild thing” overnight, as Eve is saying that tomorrow will be an up day? Am I correct, Eve, that is your opinion? Thank you Eve, as I do not have a clue, as usual.
April 19th, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Tony,
Any more update/comment on TCK.B today?
April 19th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Young,
re.#93
Two words, if I may, on copper/coal things or metals in general:
‘Stay Away’
April 19th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
#92
Ana, I was trading HVU, but got fed up with it & had to go out – ended up selling for a small profit – thought the irrational markets would run up some more. Now watching it climb and I’m very frustrated – could be up hundreds if I didn’t sell out earlier. Personally, wouldn’t hold it overnight (maybe small or half position only) – usually there’s a chance to buy in lower at some point in the day and if it really runs up tomorrow you can still catch some gains on the way up. Just my 2c.
April 19th, 2012 at 2:42 pm
GMSA
#32 : I did not go long or short, I stayed out of GTE.TO for now. I feel the itch to trade the channel its been in since February, but I’m sleptical about it breaking below 50MA which is where the uptrend line is as well – around $6.00 now.
Question about resistance, once its broken is that still considered a resistance point in the future or not? For example GTE.to broke $6.10 resistance on 30Apr12, but then fell below ir on Apr 9th.
Thanks for your help.
KC
April 19th, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Ana,
LOL – that’s cute Ana
Well, the Bradley date change comes on Monday – BUT, the Bradley date can be + or – 4 days of when the market starts its turn (as per the Bradley date). The 4 day MA right now on the SPX is at 1379 and currently, the SPX is at 1371. So, tomorrow, the SPX might be at around 1377?? 1376?? in which case if say the SPX closes today at around 1371, then the SPX should go up tomorrow at least to its 4 day MA – it could move up to 1380 though too or higher. BUT, as we are within the 4 day Bradley date, then after moving up tomorrow to its 4 day MA, then it could just come back down again after that. So, for me as well (for how things are standing RIGHT NOW), it is hard to know what may occur tomorrow. I am fairly confident though in saying that for Monday, it will be a down day. So, HVU might be a good hold from buying it on the dip tomorrow to its 4 day MA of tomorrow (and seeing where the SPX tomorrow goes to after it has touched its 4 day tomorrow).
Sorry i couldn’t be of more help
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 2:43 pm
tony, I already covered rgr short.. pretty stressful ..from -$2,700 to +$1,050..
April 19th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Slava,
Re #36, Did you watch the video completely? Any chance you can summarize the words on LULU in 250 words or less ?
thanks
KC
April 19th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
oops I meant #39 not 36.
April 19th, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Eve,
I’m thankful to you for your take on SAP.TO a few days ago. I held onto it and will hopefully see it climb as it is a defensive play. Is there any break below, where I should get out for sure or does it look good to hold into fall at least?
Can I ask for your take on LULU please?
Thanks
KC
April 19th, 2012 at 2:47 pm
PS Ana,
Tomorrow’s price action will depend on where the SPX closes today relative to its 4 day MA.
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 2:50 pm
KC, lulu is towards the end.. scroll forward to 57 minutes or so.. best to hear from the horse’s mouth, right?
April 19th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Eve,
Re #46. I do agree 100%, trading is in no way perfect and might I be daring enough to say neither are any of us. I just wanted to clarify how well the 2 day rule works.
Thanks
KC
April 19th, 2012 at 2:56 pm
KC,
As long as SAP.TO stays above the mid keltner (at $43.79 right now), then it should head higher (AFTER it has come back down to the mid keltner once it hits the keltner top at $45.88) – give or take 20 to 30 cents here and there on those numbers given. The resistance levels I gave you before are still valid ($46 and $47 areas).
LULU:
It can’t seem to get decisively above the mid keltner point these days – this suggests more downside to come. It tends to respect the bottom bollinger band and then bounces up from there – right now that is at $71.64 (it can dip below there to say $71 and then bounce up from there). IF it goes below $71, then it looks like it will head to the bottom keltner at $68.40. There’s strong support too just below this at $57 yo $67.50 and at $65 area and then at $63.50 area too!
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Slava
NTR
During the game last night, there was an L.A. player named Slava, since that was a guy, I assume Slava is not your real name? Just curious.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:00 pm
mick, let’s just say that in Russia “Slava” is both a female and male name
April 19th, 2012 at 3:00 pm
mick, Eve knows my real name and she says it’s much better than Slava and suits me more, right Eve?
April 19th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Eve,
What do you think the SPX will possible open and close as tomorrow considering its options exp week and all that jazz? I’m holding SPX shorts and wondering if I should hold into next week or sell and re-enter next week.
Are you having a fairly pain free day?
Thanks again,
KC
April 19th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Mick/nv & Slava,
That’s what I thought during today’s market call program on BNN, a guy often calls in on OSK.TO and is very passionate about it’s prospects.
And I, for a moment, thought could this fellow be ‘THE Slava’?
April 19th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
gmsa
But he didn’t have a sexy voice that I heard that Slava has.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Tony,
Talk about a gamble.
BAC April 9.00 puts opened this am @.09. Total so far of 56,335 c’s taded. Trading at .25 now.
April 9.00 calls opened @ .19 – now trading @ .01. Total of 297,922 c’s.
Lots of straddles bought yesterday prior to earnings.
I am looking to buy – but will wait a couple of days.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Mick/nv,
re.#111
Lol! so ture!
May be the upcoming site upgrade from TechTalk will include many enhanced features & hopefully, will include ‘voice sampling’.
Slava: See, you’re so much loved here & are in such a great demand! No wonder you call this site your 2nd home!!
Cheers!
April 19th, 2012 at 3:13 pm
mick and KC, osk.to and gte.to are the two stocks I’ve been trading since 2008.. so one might say I’m passionate about those two
April 19th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Slava,
re post 108:
LOL – yes, very very true re your real name
DEFINITELY is suitable to your personality (unlike the name of “Slava” 
).
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Just wasted more time on the phone with Itrade… they let me put a buy and a sell through and then when I tried to do the same transaction again the system said “insufficient margin”.. they put me on hold for 15 minutes to investigate and then said that the system was wrong the first time letting me do the purchase.. what a joke!
April 19th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Tawny and gmsa:
Just to clarify, long time ago someone ask me where I got the info. I posted and I said its from a website. They then ask me to post the name of the website which I did, however, prior to that never saw it mentioned on the board unless I missed it, so maybe people have been using it but never mentioned it. Why are people so sensitive and spend so much justifying thiings here is unbelievable. So lets say Tawny its you and not me and do apologize. Have a great day.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:16 pm
KC,
Oh i have no idea where the SPX will open or close at tomorrow – I can’t give precise numbers like that for open and closing prices LOL. To get an bidea of my thoughts on tomorrow’s SPX, please take a look at my replies today to “Ana” AND the posts I wrote today on the “markets” and on the “SPX”.
No pain today – thanks KC
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Slava
You may need to try another broker, it seems that the one Tony uses is quite good, I have never heard him complain
April 19th, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Wayne
NTR
I introduced 6 ladies to The Pilot House yesterday for lunch – most of us had fish and chips and they were pretty much in top form (I have found that the f&c quality is not consistent, so I was relieved). I have been arranging Ladies Lunch Out (monthly for the Kingston Newcomer’s Club this year. Well, that’s my last pig out for awhile… going off the bad stuff to lose weight going forward.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:18 pm
So Apple has been stuck in this $587.80 range for the last few minutes, which way will it break?
April 19th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
mick, the great thing about itrade is that they almost always have all kinds of US stocks in inventory to short.. I don’t know how they do it! Pretty much anything is available for shorting through itrade – it’s not the case with most other Cdn brokerages.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Tony,
#89, Is this an intraday strategy for all stocks? Can you elaborate on it a bit more please?
Thanks
KC
April 19th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Mick/nv & Slava,
ITrade is the only bank led broker that routes directly to the respective exchanges w/o any interferance (as in case of the other bank brokers they route the order first to their trading desk & then after it will be sent to where ever)
About shorting, it’s a great broker as things are always available 99% of the time.
The only thing that I asked for and never got is IOC in the US…rest all okay all the time.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
gmsa, that’s exactly it! Once or twice Itrade didn’t have ioc to short but some other times they do.
By the way, that hedge fund manager I mentioned earlier in the day has IOC as his #1 largest short position.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:36 pm
CMG reporting earnings in 30 minutes.. my curiosity is through the roof! I have no position in it currently. I would be pretty chocked if they miss and crash..
April 19th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
TD Waterhouse,
I can not get Markets & Research, which is where all of the charts are! Is anyone else experiencing this frustration?
April 19th, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Tawny,
I have been going there since 1985. Every Friday night, a group of lawyers gathers there for several ales. I used to hang out with Ross Drummond. Heard he just became the new Crown Attorney for Kingston. I have strict instructions that my ashes get flushed down the toilet when I leave this vale of tears. Is the patio open yet?
April 19th, 2012 at 3:41 pm
NTR
Re “a group of lawyers gathers there for several ales”.. Hmm.. this is exactly the kind of place where a gal like me should be hanging out to meet her soulmate!
April 19th, 2012 at 3:43 pm
tony, I think osk.to is looking like a buy finally here at $9.59. I knew I was early. I just looked at Level 2 and there are some very sizeable bids lined up, meaning institutinal buying.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Eve,
Thanks for #105, I have saved your old notes for SAP.TO
KC
April 19th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Young,
tck I was bullish I had high hopes it would break above 38$ but it didn’t probably will pull back a few days and try again but will it be able to move higher afterwards
April 19th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Young,
Further to my reply to you @ #94
CNBC just paraded ceos of PCX & FCX: Both are very bullish & optimistic !!
No one wants to look at the growth that they saw in past 7-8 years is gone and well behind it. Not even acknowledging the Chinese slowdown for steel, iron ore, copper, met & thermal coal.
Then again, they are the CEOs and can’t be allowed to speak -ve on their outlook, right?
April 19th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Wayne
you are to funny the only thing I can say about BAC today was were it opened compared to the 4 it had to tag it and it did so I would had bought some puts.
man I can make a habit of buying calls and puts daily.
on with respect to the 4MA.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:55 pm
So I guess I’ll be holding fcx overnight..
April 19th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
KC
4MA
most stock, some do defy gravity, will tag the 4 during the day this is theoretical tho, as a gap because of a catalyst (earnings, or any other phenomenon) will make it either fly so high or fall so low that it will take a few days for the 4MA to tag along.
Some companies a while back we had to leave them the benefit of the doubt that it tagged as we are talking pennies short of the 4MA but their value was so heavy that a 10 cents-30 cents not tagging the 4 was considered normal.
April 19th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Slava
What happens if FCX drops tomorrow?
April 19th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
gmsa,
These CEO’s are usually under strict instructions from their boards, not to bad mouth or make any negative remarks concerning the companies they represent, during their tenure. Some have punitive claw back provisions in their contracts. They, and many of the board members have sizeable stock and option holdings in the company. You want to “bite the hand that feeds you”?? Go ahead. You’ll be the next trainee in the Walmart Greeter program in Tulsa!
April 19th, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Wayne
I will to do a thorough study on options vs the 4MA see where price opens see how a daytrade calling the 4 as target and see how price of the options move. it should be more then difficult on thinly traded companies.
bac, c should do the trick.
April 19th, 2012 at 4:10 pm
mick, I’ll just call Investorline and tell them to reverse the trade as it does not appear to be profitable?
April 19th, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Tony,
Been there – done that. I did that on Abx last year. There is slippage on the bid-ask and in order to make a profit, you need to cover your trading fees. You can still be right on the direction – but you’ll get hosed over costs, and slippage on b/a. Unless there is a major move and your timing is perfect, you will lose.
I do know that there are vendors who sell an option daytrading service – they go for the big Nazzie’s (apple – Google) – lots of liquidity, narrow spreads and lightening fast executions. But them’s the big boys.I’m not tall enough to p%#@@ in the tall weeds with those elephants!
Best!
April 19th, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Slava
130 OSK.TO
you missed my message on the news out from the air contamination, they had some kind of problem and they suspect Nitrogen Dioxyde has been pumped into the air.
Wonder how long they knew about it as it’s the first time I hear about it, but I don’t listen to news that much.
April 19th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
tony, the market seems to shrugg off the news.. buyers are coming back to osisko!
April 19th, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Slava
Well at least you won’t lose money then.
CMG had stellar earnings during the quarter and outlook is good for the next. might be sell on news tomorrow or maybe a continuation of the upward trend.
April 19th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Well, I have to leave to run some errands.. will be wearing my new beautiful Hermes scarf purchased with trading profits (those things are so damn expensive!) .. it reminds me of Paris
Have a great afternoon everyone.
April 19th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Wayne
NTR Re#128
You mean you used to go there? You don’t come to Kingston e very Friday night now – me thinks not. Yes the patio is open – Wednesday lunch there were quite a few senior fellas – I told the single ladies at my table that it was a Seniors Pick Up Joint – just kidding around with them, of course. It certainly is a Kingston Tradition – The Pilot House.
Next time you’re this side of the lake, let’s do fish & chips there… get Hneil to join in too!
April 19th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Wayne
Ooohh I see,
so tell me your call earlier on options was this from what you have seen the day. or going foward into earnings.
April 19th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Tony,
Lotsa grunts play the earnings game. Especially with the large momo stocks that have been hyped by Crammer and co. Straddle the sucker and wait for earnings announcement. The p/c costs – this close to expiration are in pennies. So they can lay down a nickle or dime and hope for a double or triple. Get out just after the open after the spike – and trade out of the loser. If you’re quick enough – you can win big.
There was a story of a trader in the WSJ who played that game on a select number of big names – only played around earnings – he’d drop 5- 10 grand on each position – his previous year trading earnings – he made 1.5 mil.
April 19th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Young
TCK.b
they are hiking the price of the may 36$ puts with the highest volume of the day.
so should be careful at this point in time.
April 19th, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Heyyy, Jon V. is on BNN right now!!
Way to go Jon – first time on BNN – yes?? Way to go with that Jon
Eve
April 19th, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Michael, how was the Canaccord event last night at the Four Seasons?
April 19th, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Thanks Tony & gmsa.
Have to be very careful nowadays.
I am thinking about increasing my Monthly Income Funds and XRE.TO, and keep re-investing distributions.
A couple of stop losses got triggered today and lost $$$.
April 19th, 2012 at 7:58 pm
WOW – do have a look at this graphic demonstration of what bank exposure to derivitives looks like in terms the eye can relate to… SCARY!
http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html
April 19th, 2012 at 8:15 pm
#61 thx eve ..
will add to this defensive / good yield position as a long term hold .. would / could you suggest other stocks to hid in for the summer with yield ….thx in advance
April 19th, 2012 at 8:16 pm
#53
Tawny, I was marveling over that page earlier on today – pretty scary stuff. Make sure you check the other graphics – the links are at the bottom of the page. I see you’re a real fan of ZH
Me too!
April 19th, 2012 at 8:54 pm
bbd.b.to
also a bottom W formation on daily chart … anyone agree
April 19th, 2012 at 9:38 pm
slava=glory
Am I correct Slava ?
April 19th, 2012 at 10:27 pm
KC
about my price vs the 4MA analogy you can read it in my guide to new investors I have sent out so many times. last one was back on January 6th 2012 from the home page you can select the month and then from there select the date.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Rick, you are correct
April 19th, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Rick, you are correct
April 19th, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Young
XRE.TO
I went to see xre.to chart, as I was a bit curious where to put my money into a safe place,
I don’t like the chart.
Reasons
1- Volume on march 19th vs price action. big price drop on big volume.
2- double top at 16.40
3- my macd indicator has just turned south. and at the price we are the this peak should of been higher then on march 14th.
I would wait and see if the march low 15.68 was just below 50MA now we would be around 100MA.
April 19th, 2012 at 11:04 pm
bob
WN.to and BBD.b
I hate going against Eve’s analysis
but weston has been in a downtrend since November.
if you take out everything prior to march you could see a Head and Shoulder. we just need to go below 61 and that would be it you would have about 3 extra$ of downside.
Yes
now if you print bbd.b chart vs wn chart
you will see what my indicators are saying and you should be able to see the clear winner
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WN.TO&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p30875036505&a=264870115
April 19th, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Bob Eve,
posts 61 and 162.
sorry hate going against Eve’s analysis
I have just reread post 61 and and you said if it bounces it would be a W formation I missed that part.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:39 am
Tony, Eve,
WN.TO does seem to be in a downtrend. Has it not been making lower high and lower lows? 50Ma, 100ma in a downtrend? Eve, what entry point would convince you to buy in ?
KC
April 23rd, 2012 at 11:13 am
This market is really a TA market.
I was looking how WZR was fairing and boom went close to 150MA at 67cents on thrusday and today its up to 83 cents.
I got to many TA charts that I need to flush a few out.