ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Friday April 20th 2012
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 6 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to better than expected first quarter earnings reported overnight by Microsoft, McDonald’s and General Electric. Microsoft added $1.04 to $32.05, McDonald’s gained $1.82 to $97.10 and General Electric improved $0.26 to $19.40. Index futures also responded to hopes that the International Monetary Fund will provide another $400 billion of funding to stabilize Europe’s growing sovereign debt crisis. Discussions about additional funding will be held this weekend at the G20 meeting.
First quarter earnings reports continue to pour in this morning. Companies that reported overnight in addition to Microsoft, McDonald’s and General Electric included SanDisk, Altera, Advanced Micro Devices, Capital One, Met Life, Ingersoll-Rand, Honeywell, Kimberly Clark, Canadian Pacific and Manpower.
Canada’s inflation rate remains in check. Consensus for Canada’s March Consumer Price Index on a year-over-year basis was 2.0%. Actual was 1.9%, down from 2.6% in February.
Today is Triple Witching Day. Look for higher than average volume and price volatility.
Nexen is expected to open higher after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform.
Nike is expected to open higher after Benchmark initiated coverage with a Buy rating.
Altera slipped $0.27 to $38.23 after Citigroup downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.
SanDisk plunged $5.14 to $35.33 after reporting lower than consensus quarterly earnings. In addition Deutsche Bank, Stifel Nicolaus and CLSA downgraded the stock.
Bank of America is expected to open lower after CLSA downgraded the stock from Underweight to Sell.
Cameco added $0.30 to US$21.48 after TD Securities upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
Technical Watch
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) – $32.05 added 3.4% after reporting higher than consensus quarterly earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $30.23 and resistance is at $32.95. The stock is expected to open above its 20 and 50 day moving averages at the opening. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of December. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image001111.png "clip_image001[1]")
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image279.png "clip_image002[1]")
General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) – $19.40 gained 1.4% after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Resistance is at $20.36 and support is at $18.70. The stock is expected to move above its 50 day moving average at $19.34 at the opening. Short term momentum indicators have started to recover from slightly oversold levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been neutral since the beginning of February. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image003110.png "clip_image003[1]")
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image185.png "clip_image004[1]")
McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE:MCD) – $97.10 gained 1.9% after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock confirmed an intermediate downtrend yesterday on a break below support at $95.13. Resistance is at $99.50, $100.44 and $101.51. Resistance also is likely at its 20 day moving average at $97.42 and its 50 day moving average at $98.17. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has negative since mid-December. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. Preferred strategy is to sell into strength closer to overhead resistance at $99.50 and $100.44.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00517.png "clip_image005[1]")
![clip_image006[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image267.png "clip_image006[1]")
Recent Leibovit Volume Reversal Signals
Short JPM (JP Morgan)
Short AAPL (Apple)
Long DNN (Denison)
Long FAZ (Direxion Financial Bear 3x)
Jon Vialoux on BNN Television
Jon was invited to appear on BNN Television yesterday after the close giving a U.S. and Canadian stock market overview. Following is a link to Jon’s interview with Michael Hainsworth:
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip662392
Interesting Charts
Apple remains a short term driver of U.S. equity markets. Its 20 day moving average is proving to be short term resistance. Strength relative to the S&P 500 has turned negative.
Responses to first quarter earnings reports remain problematic for the bulls. Except for companies that reported blow out earnings (e.g. Chubb and Microsoft after the close), most stocks came under profit taking pressures following release of results (e.g. Bank of America/Merrill, Dupont, Nucor, Philip Morris International and Union Pacific). As of the close yesterday, 20% of S&P 500 stocks had reported first quarter results and 80% reported higher than consensus earnings. Yet, the response generally was to sell on news.
Weekly Review of Select Sector SPDRs
Technology
· Intermediate trend is up. The intermediate trend line has been broken. Resistance has formed at $30.62.
· Remains below its 20 day MA and briefly broke its 50 day MA yesterday.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is changing from positive
Materials
· Intermediate trend is down. Resistance is at $37.65 and $37.83.
· Finding short term resistance at its 20 and 50 day moving averages and support at its 200 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is changing from negative.
Consumer Discretionary
· Intermediate trend is up. The Index has broken its uptrend line. Resistance is at $45.56.
· Remains below its 20 day moving average and held above its 50 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are trying to bottom at a slightly oversold level.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Industrials
· Intermediate trend is neutral. Support is forming at $35.56 and resistance is at $38.11.
· Found short term resistance near its 20 and 50 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are trying to recover from oversold levels.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Energy
· Intermediate trend is down. Resistance is at $76.21 and $75.47.
· Trades below its 20 and 50 day moving average and fell below its 200 day moving average yesterday.
· Short term momentum indicators are oversold and trying to bottom.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative, but could be changing.
Financials
· Intermediate trend is up. Its intermediate uptrend has been broken. Resistance is at $16.01. Support may be forming at $14.95.
· Remains below its 20 day MA and is testing its 50 day MA.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Consumer Staples
· Intermediate trend is up. Its intermediate uptrend has been broken. Resistance is at $34.42
· Trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are slightly overbought.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Health Care
· Intermediate trend is up. Its intermediate uptrend line has been broken.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages, but just below its 20 day MA.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Utilities
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $33.83 to $35.94.
· Trades just below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Add Seasonality Analysis to your investment selection to enhance return potential of your portfolios.
You are invited to attend a special presentation session hosted by:
Paul Svana, B.A.Sc. Managing Director, Wealth Management – Union Securities Limited.
Guest presenters:
Mr. Don Vialoux, CMT and Jon Vialoux
Research Analysts – Horizons Exchange Traded Funds – advising the Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC).
Creator of www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com web sites
Date:
Tuesday, April 24th, 2012
Time:
12 noon
Place:
Union Securities – Boardroom
151 Yonge Street, 13th floor
Seating is limited. Please RSVP with Paul Svana at 416-775-4655 or 1-866-244-2144 or email
Refreshments will be served.
CSTA News
Winnipeg Chapter of Canadian Society of Technical Analysts Meeting
Location: NRC East Building-Ground Floor
435 Ellice (at Vaughan)
Time: Wednesday 25th April at 7pm sharp.
Presenter: Don Vialoux, CMT – Conference call and slide presentation. Bring your laptops.
Topic: Seasonality as influenced by The Presidential Election Cycle and a review of other timely investment opportunities.
Don is a leading Canadian technician and is a regular on the BNN TV network. he co manages a seasonality based Exchange Traded Fund and manages a very popular website – Timing The Market.
Please feel free to invite new guests
Meeting is free to CSTA Members and first time guests. Casual/repeat attendees $20.
For information call Allen Hosey 453-3241 or email ahosey@shaw.ca
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
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Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Australian Dollar Forex (FX:AUD) Seasonal Chart
Eric Wheatley’s Weekly Listed Options Column (not)
Note: I’m in Toronto this week for meetings, bringing me up to date with the administrative processes and ETF education I’ll need in my eventual portfolio management functions at J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc. Due to unforeseen time constraints, I wasn’t able to produce this week’s options commentary and I apologise to whomever would’ve read the thing, if any. We should be back next week.
I’m writing this because last week, we had an email malfunction. I had invited anyone who wants to read the draft version of our Options Guide to write to me, but I found out a few days later that my email account was buggy. If any of you had tried to reach me, I’m just letting you know that the account is back online, so feel free to write to me and I’ll send on the Guide. As a reminder, we present options to beginners intuitively with analogies to cavemen, zombies and $250 napkins.
Thanks and sorry,
Éric Wheatley, MBA, CIM
Options Analyst, J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 19th 2012
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: GE, MCD, MSFT
April 20th, 2012 at 7:09 am
yesterdays #162
eve, tony, kc…thanks all for comments and ideas
April 20th, 2012 at 7:34 am
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=WN.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p49836339699&r=1334921551208
this is what i was seeing for a bottom W formation ….. maybe early but looking for the upswing i hope
April 20th, 2012 at 9:08 am
Hi all. Here’s a comment from Donald Dony, Technical Speculator:
This correction appears to be nearing the end. Upward pressure should develop in May.
April 20th, 2012 at 9:13 am
Michael: What reasons does he give? or is this just an opinion. Most of these guys have no justification for their cheer leading comments. It reminds me of Goldman Sucks.
April 20th, 2012 at 9:18 am
I think the market is sending Obama a message that he can’t control the price of Oil given that the US uses 20% of the world consumption and only produces 2%. Oil is already up $2. Expect more talking heads to put down the evil empire.
April 20th, 2012 at 9:18 am
Hi Slava. Regarding Canaccord’s Wednesday event, the red wine was disappointing while the cheese was outstanding. Luckily that was sufficient, so I had no need for any borscht!
Not surprisingly, they remain bullish on the stock market, especially dividend payers, auto parts and natural gas companies, but very bearish on bonds and gold. Interestingly, they still recommend around 35% exposure to fixed income and no cash.
April 20th, 2012 at 9:39 am
Hi Ray-Kitchener. Mr. Dony uses proprietary models to forecast. I only get his free email, so don’t know what’s in his models. He’s a “master technician”, but have found that his forecasts aren’t perfect. As examples, he didn’t believe in the Santa Claus rally and called for January market lows (comparable to October). However, he became bullish in February and looks like he’s still very bullish.
April 20th, 2012 at 9:52 am
Michael
Re #7 – The brokerage firms and mutual fund companies, do not make money if clients hold c ash, right? LOL
April 20th, 2012 at 9:54 am
Kay
Sure did not think I was stepping on your toes re UpTrend? YOU, probably did introduce this to the board, I just blabbed about it more, being a subscriber and having had success with it. Wish I had stuck with it this year.
April 20th, 2012 at 10:04 am
Michael,
Mr. Dony warned about the market in March and early April. He then turned positive about the market recently saying the correction is completed but the market will be still rough for a few more days.
April 20th, 2012 at 10:05 am
Good morning, guys
How is trading?
April 20th, 2012 at 10:05 am
Good morning, guys
How is trading?
April 20th, 2012 at 10:07 am
Lin
Hey there. Nice to see you back.
How are you? Been travelling, have you?
Are you bull or bear now?
April 20th, 2012 at 10:09 am
Tawny,
I am still on the way. But just settle for a while. Still bull more than bear. I will look into more. And post more. Thanks Tawny.
April 20th, 2012 at 10:10 am
Good Morning Lin
Have a great day, you deserve it
Riptor
April 20th, 2012 at 10:12 am
Yes. Everyday is new beginning. Thanks Riptor. I just like to make a good model to my kids!
April 20th, 2012 at 10:14 am
Good morning Lin!
April 20th, 2012 at 10:16 am
Hi Lin, you’ve been missed. What parts of the world are you travelling through?
April 20th, 2012 at 10:17 am
Interesting Note: Options Pain on the SPY is 138. Presently at 138.48. The Options sellers get richer. Surprise.
April 20th, 2012 at 10:17 am
Michael, so Canaccord is bearish on gold.. hmm.. Did they talk about gold companies? (seniors vs. juniors – I know juniors are having a very tough time raising funds, etc.). Thanks.
April 20th, 2012 at 10:25 am
Eve, Tony, Mick, Canuck,
Since I am still learning, my inexperienced eye is still trying to catch things that you are more proficient at seeing. Are triangle patterns a significant event and what do symmetric triangles mean? Do you see the SPX in a sym tri pattern since the end of March ? Is that bearish or can it go either way?
Thanks,
KC
April 20th, 2012 at 10:28 am
I think fm.to is a buy here at $21.36 for a day trade.
April 20th, 2012 at 10:30 am
Michael and other IVL users, just an fyi that some of the stock prices may not be updating “real time” in the streamer, I just noticed.
April 20th, 2012 at 10:32 am
“The G-20 meets this weekend as Ms. Lagarde tries to raise more money for the war chest at the IMF. Some will be forthcoming though there is notable pushback to determine its use by Canada, the United States and some other nations. The outcome of this meeting will be interesting and probably determine the open on Monday. One other interesting note is the upcoming EU meeting where France and Germany will propose the reintroduction of border controls which flies squarely in the face of stated European Union policies for the past decade.”
April 20th, 2012 at 10:48 am
Hi Slava. I haven’t noticed InvestorLine’s streaming quotes being fickle again, but thanks for the heads up (I complained to them last week, and two other times, that if they are having problems, notify us on their bulletin board.)
Canaccord suggested to buy gold equities rather than the bullion but didn’t mention which ones.
April 20th, 2012 at 10:49 am
Slava
That was wonderful trip. Thanks. Young Thank. Have get ride of JE.to
April 20th, 2012 at 10:49 am
Slava
That was wonderful trip. Thanks. Young Thank. Have get ride of JE.to
April 20th, 2012 at 10:50 am
Thieves Of Bay Street (Fargin Bastigers – my husband’s favorite expression!)
And, I thought we were “Canada, the Good!” I am becoming so disillusioned on the entire world financial system. Cheers to those of you that day trade and scalp successfully!
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/11/bruce-livesey-thieves-of-bay-street_n_1417795.html?ref=canada-business
(Check out the salaries of the Bank CEOS at the bottom of this article.)
“Any doubt about veteran journalist Bruce Livesey’s regard for the Canadian financial industry is immediately dispelled by the title of his new book. Released by Random House late last month, Thieves of Bay Street: How Banks, Brokerages, And The Wealthy Steal Billions From Canadians, unapologetically chronicles the worst moments in the industry’s recent history.”
April 20th, 2012 at 10:50 am
Hi kay. FYI, I sold most of my CCO. It’s getting a little ahead of itself.
April 20th, 2012 at 10:59 am
Hi Slava and Eve,
I picked up RAX and LNKD to short, however,I missed the entry point @$108 for LNKD.
What’s your take on both stocks.
April 20th, 2012 at 11:00 am
Hi Slava,
re LNKD:
As I’m sure you recall, I wrote this yesterday:
Eve Says:
April 19th, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Slava,
Yes, you can short LNKD – BUT don’t do it until tomorrow – wait til it gets to around $107/ $108 (it might go to $110 tomorrow too for options expiration – it isn’t known if it will be $105 tomorrow or $110 as both have similar levels of call volumes) – BUT on Monday, it should come down to around the mid keltner level at around $100 / $101. So, i would wait until tomorrow to short it …
————————————————–
See today what it did?? Up to $107 and then down to $105.50 – then up again to $108.20 and then down to $106.70 and now up again to just over $107. So, yep, a couple of shorting opps in there from just today
LOL – too funny!!
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 11:05 am
Hi Ania,
Oh funny – I just wrote to Slava about LNKD. See my post above about shorting it.
RAX isn’t really a good short Ania as it’s a strong stock – it could though get down to its 9 day MA at $56.38 OR to the mid kelt at $56.55 in the coming days (depending what the markets do overall – and they should be down on Monday – BUT RAX will often be up when the overall markets are down – it has strong support too at the $55 level – so, it “could” get down to there too).
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 11:09 am
PS Ania,
re LNKD:
Should be down on Monday – if it gets to $101 area though, I’d cover your short. BUT, it could still get to $110 by end of today (due to options expiration) – so, must be aware of that Ania. It usually makes a run higher in the day around 2 to 230 PM after it hits a low there. So, must be aware of that too
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 11:21 am
KC
Can’t comment on triangles, Eve is probably the best person to do that. For the S&P as long as the price does not break out of this box to the downside then I would not consider it to be bearish.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p70876640546&a=183214001
April 20th, 2012 at 11:28 am
Hi all. Here’s something from Zacks, who tend to be fairly bullish:
Right now we keep getting support each time we hit 1370 on the S&P. But I sense that odds are increasing that we will soon head under that mark with 1300 being a logical next level of support.
April 20th, 2012 at 11:33 am
Hi Eve, you know your LNKD! It did exactly what you described. I tried to short but didn’t get filled and then I got busy washing my hair, having breakfast, etc. Missed a bunch of trades.. and now I have to leave for work. I am keeping a close eye on lnkd for a shorting opportunity, so thank you for your note on lnkd.
I’m trying to understand the weakness behind fcx today.. markets up, copper up a lot today – must be the option expiration factor at work. My gut told me to sell fcx at the open but I didn’t listen, oh well, at least it’s a decent stock.
April 20th, 2012 at 11:34 am
Slava
This chart is for you
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p70309985284&a=264819355
April 20th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Hi Lin – You have been missed! Still keeping up with the “Princess” LOL
April 20th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Michael
Such conflicting views out there. I am wondering if the Bradley April 23 date will affect only Europe or some region other than USA… I guess we will know soon enough.
Today is options expiration – so with that, what do we make of today’s moves?? Are they reliable or just proving maximum pain as per Wayne’s post the other day?
April 20th, 2012 at 11:45 am
Saw Don’s son on BNN last night.What happened??
April 20th, 2012 at 11:55 am
About 50% articles I read says Bull trend is over, and the other 50% says we hit the bottom and new uptrend is beginning.
So confusing nowadays.
However the market is very shaky for sure.
April 20th, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Hi Tawny. No pain, no gain! I love how the media is spinning that the earnings are so good. It will be interesting on Monday, with all that’s going on in Europe and Mondays tending to be bullish. We’ll soon see.
April 20th, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Hi Eve,
I did read your post to Slava re: LNKD, and that’s why I picked this stock today for shorting. I will keep watching it today for a good entry point, then exit on Monday
Thank you very much, Ania
April 20th, 2012 at 12:39 pm
KC
I saw your triangle here is the thing either SnP breaks above 1395 for a bullish ride or breaks below 1376 for a bear ride.
now indicators William is going north with highr troughs and Same goes for MACD
4MA is headed north
now price is tagging the 4MA so as lng as price follows the 4MA to a T we are eaded in the same direction.
April 20th, 2012 at 12:45 pm
KC
some could argue that we have a flag and if this is supported then this would be bearish as the flag formation was on the way down.
if you look at the month of december we have the same pattern but inverted.
April 20th, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Michael
The IMF got more billions of money – big meeting this weekend – what will they do — Good Grief….the world is crazy…
next month big concern is IRAN…. and the U.S. Secretary of Defense says “we are five minutes from War”
Leon Panetta has the answer today in this clip. Somewhat shockingly honest, Panetta changes the metric from time to distance and states, on CNN’s ‘Situation Room’, that “We’re within an inch of war almost every day in that part of the world, and we just have to be very careful about what we say and what we do”. As Politico reports, the lugubrious Leon says that America is prepared for “any contingency” that might result from North Korean actions.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/forget-5-minutes-midnight-we-are-inch-war
April 20th, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Tawny,
I think we are headed down, however where we head down from is the question. From S&P 1388 area or from S&P 1398 area. So, maybe Monday will decide for us.
Have no idea of what to do today. Do you still have your short positions? Does Stephen Whiteside advise to keep short positions?
I listened to his presentation this morning, however really did not grasp a direction from him.
April 20th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Slava
CMG
Big volume,
Below 18MA,
MACD peak from March is higher then the recent peak,
forget about the options, as they are selling all the calls and buying some top puts but selling everything below.
April 20th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Hi Eve,
Can you comment on the chart for GLNG please. Its still in a downtrend and I’m wondering if you see it as wise to short it today since it may not get above the mid-Keltner. Is it safe to hold the short into next week for a hope to bottom Keltner around $35.80?
Thanks,
KC
April 20th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
KC, Ana, and anyone else interested:
I wrote this yesterday re the SPX – it is still valid for today:
Eve Says:
April 19th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Re the SPX:
Ron/AB pointed out (about 2 to 3 weeks ago) that there was the central pivot at 1390 level (it’s at 1389) (this is a resistance point once the SPX fell below that pivot) – and in sync with this, the SPX has not been able to get significantly above that pivot point since its run back up above 1375 (it got as high as 1392 this week BUT this is not any significant amount above the c pivot at 1389) – so, as it has not been able to get above that CP level, then this shows there is a weakening in the SPX that was not there from Jan til March – this suggests the next major move would be to the downside rather than more upside to the 1400 area plus.
Also, there is a pattern showing on the SPX of a potential bear flag – and if this gets completed, then the SPX should go down to AT LEAST 1357 (this was the low point for the first down stroke of the W seen in the past few weeks). IF it bounces up from around 1350 and above, then it could potentially become a W pattern (which is bullish). IF it goes below 1350, then its next major support is at 1340. If that can’t hold, then easily it could head to 1300 to see if support could be found there. There’s more likelihood right now of going to the downside – so, expect those kind of support prices to be tested in the very near term (within the next few weeks).
The 50 day MA is at 1378 (where the SPX is right now as I write this) and the 200 day MA is at 1273.
Any of these price levels I’ve written herein can act as support levels
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Eve,
Did we just see a double top in the S&P 500 futures?
April 20th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
mick and tony, thanks for your update on cmg.. the exact same thing happened three months ago.. CMG went down quite a bit a day after earnings annoucment only to pick up steam later and move strongly. So I’d like to see what develops this week, this stock is very manipulated.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Any opinions on Apple for the rest of the day? Tony, I remember you said yesterday that it’s likely to fall more and this is what it’s doing so far today. I’m wondering if we’ll see a rebound in the final two hours or more selling? Hard to bet.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
KC,
re GLNG:
It’s hard to say and here are the reasons:
Bullish indicators:
1) 4 day MA has crossed up above the 9 day MA (and the 4 day is curling UP)
2) stochastics is going up from oversold level and is “almost” half way up stoch at 38.81
3) MACD histo is going up
4) RSI is now curling upwards
Bearish indicators:
1) yes, still in a downtrend UNTIL/ UNLESS it can get above that mid kelt level DECISIVELY and not go back down through the mid kelt – as in, the mid kelt would then act as a support level
2) got today to the mid keltner and then came down from there
Conclusions:
To me, it’s more of a wait and see at this point – and the candlestick showing thus far today on the chart is a doji (signalling indecision of where to go to next in price). Where it goes from here will depend on where nat gas price goes. So, for now, it seems like a wait and see rather than shorting or buying. That’s just my opinion though.
Sorry I couldn’t give you more of a definitive answer with this KC
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Ana,
No, as it hit 1383 today as a high in the SPX futures – and this week, the high was around 1390 for the futures.
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
PS KC,
A guess though for GLNG would be more risk to the downside rather than to the upside (due to its several month downtrend and due to it having failed today to get above the mid kelt).
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Tuesday’s low for AAPl was $576.70.. it may get there soon. If it does, let’s see if it holds.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Slava,
No, Tuesday’s low for AAPL was $571.91 – check it out on stockcharts OR on yahoo finance (I have AAPL in my watchlist and I watchjed it on Tuesday go to that $571.91 right at the open as it opened at $578 area and went to that $571 within the same minute on opening).
eve
April 20th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Hey Eve, wow.. all the way down to $571.. hmm.. I bought 100 shares above $580 to see if it holds and it didn’t. So will take my loss now I guess.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
PS Slava,
Here’s the stockcharts chart of AAPl – it shows Tuesday’s low price (571.91):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p34606830721
Where were you getting $576.70 from hun??
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Ana
UpTrend did not have sell signals yet on bears that have been on the buy signal. HVU has an early warning signal though. Buy signals for energy HEU, HEG and Gold bear HBD… but the charts show that these are whipsawing. Personally, I will hold on and watch Mon/Tues. events…. I am surprised France was up today given the election this weekend and the expectation of Holande to win which would be negative for France and possibly even affect all Euro.. markets. I am getting so tired of all this and not into trading at the moment so I will just play the UpTrend, I guess.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
#51 and #55
Eve, on a S&P 500 Futures 5 Minute Chart.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Eve, I looked at finance.google.com chart.. it looked like $576. May I ask for your thoughts on AAPL? The contrarian in me keeps thinking that “they” will turn it around in the final two hours since everyone now wants to sell or short because of technicals..
April 20th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Hmm.. I’m wondering if this has smth to do with Apple’s plunge today:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hagens-berman-lawsuit-claims-wide-range-of-apple-devices-infringe-patents-for-screen-manipulation-aapl-2012-04-20
April 20th, 2012 at 1:35 pm
#62,
Eve,
Or, on a SPX 500 (5 minute) chart.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Ana,
Here is what I look at for the SPX futures:
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
If you put your mouse over the SPX box, you will see a graph of the SPX futures of the last few months – you can see the high of today for the futures and the high of the last few days. The high today is lower than the high reached at that 1390 level this week. Don’t know what else to tell you as that is what I look at for the futures of the SPX (BUT, I don’t follow the futures for doing TA of double tops, support/ resistance, patterns, etc. – I do TA with respect to the spot SPX).
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Ana,
for TODAY’s action in the SPX spot market (on a 5 min chart):
we had a high of 1387 and then dipped down to 1384 and then went back up to 1387 and then came down to be sitting right now at 1383. So for today’s price action only – then yes, thus far for today, we’ve had a double top at that 1387 level (looks like an M pattern).
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
tony, did you end up buying Osisko as it held $9.57 support? It’s up +2.2% back to $9.84 now while other gold stocks are quite weak. And above my recent purchase price of $9.80.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Mr. Dony said the downtrend is completed in his letter.
Let’s see how accurate he is.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Slava,
For today, yes AAPL may turn up again – but for next week, I feel it will test that $571 area OR will go down to its 50 day MA at $569 so that it can go up after it reports earnings next week.
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Thank God for stop losses – the only way to daytrade! I got stopped out of fm.to at $21.40 and just reentered back at $21.02 average, 1,500 shares.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Tony,
What do you think of NZ.V?
It is a small cap play, but it looks good to me.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Eve, thanks again for AAPL.. what do you make of fcx and fm.to action today? Rather abnormal.. I think it has smth to do with options expiration because both of these stocks should be up on a day like today.
April 20th, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Hi Eve,
What are the criteria for a good stock to short.
Thank you, Ania
April 20th, 2012 at 1:57 pm
#51, #55, #62, #65, #66, #67:
Thank you Eve, I guess I look for patterns during the day, because I day trade.
I often see this type of a double top in crude oil.
Also thank you for your post yesterday and reposted today (#50)
I went to a seminar last night and forgot to thank you for your post on the SPX.
April 20th, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Ana,
I didn’t realize you were only asking about the day’s price action on the SPX – when you asked me originally about a double top on the SPX, I thought you were meaning a double top within the past week or so. If I had known you meant a double top “intraday”, then I would have answered you appropriately (as I did in post 67).
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Ania and Slava,
I’ll get back to you both later today with answers to your recent posts
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Eve,
Thanks for GLNG. What do you think of RSI.TO and SGG ? Do you think SGG will rise to mid Keltner?
KC
April 20th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Anybody trading FAZ? All the banks are tumbling.
Long this am FAZ after GE report.
April 20th, 2012 at 2:17 pm
#76
Yes, my comments are not that comprehensive when I am trading. I did not correctly state my question in #51. Just wanted to get a heads up to day traders. Hard to read minds from Toronto to Edmonton!
April 20th, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Wayne
FAZ
From december until early april FAZ has been falling, it almost never broke above the 18MA.but since april 4th the 18MA has been support is this coincidence.
would be a good entry point and should it break below 18MA which is currently 50cents below well it could be a winner.
indicators seem to be indicating maybe more up movement.
April 20th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
BAC
Stopped out this morning in margin account; as the saying goes “don’t let a stock make a new low on you”, not for margin trading purposes anyway as the clock is always ticking (margin costs). Will return when chart looks better.
Still holding in RRSP as my time horizon is in years…
April 20th, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Young
NZ.v
Ok indicators look good.
looks as if the downtrend has been broken.
Volume looks good on the buying.
only concern is that 38MA was resistance back in early april can it hold on to this sudden burst of gains or are the HFs playing the Retail investors?
if you have bought 2 days ago I would say thats your stop in case it heads lower, otherwise I would have to say use Canucks methodology buying on the way up but sell if it drops below 2.60
April 20th, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Canuck2004,
I was watching BAC like a hawk this morning – just after the GE #’s came out. C,JPM,GS all turned negative – so I piled into FAZ.
I was wondering if you got s/o. I was going to buy a June 10 put on BAC – but decided on FAZ.
Best!
April 20th, 2012 at 2:53 pm
# 84- Wayne
BAC… good thing anout high volume stocks, one gets stopped on the penny.
When a stock makes a new low like that and breaks its 50 DMA, which held up during the past correction, something else is at play that is not obvious to us… it’s certainly not one little analyst downgrade, as that is meaningless… or the overdraft news… not when the volume on this one stock is double the TSX.
BBD.B still hanging in there… don’t know for how long tho…lol…my defensive stocks in margin account, like REITs, UTEs, etc., doing quite well….so far.
April 20th, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Tony,
Looking at the same pattern. After the spike, it bounced 50% of the run-up – now with higher lows – looks about to climb back to 23.50. I’d take that, then re-assess. But there’s weakness right across the board. JPM, MS, still falling.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Canuck2004,
Negative article out this am in the G&M on the bomber. I wouldn’t touch it here. Just to think that I used to trade this dog when it was at 31.00!!!!
April 20th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Wayne: Did you buy GE before their release?
Went in UCO yesterday and sold today at 43.38. Don’t you miss the oil?
April 20th, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Wayne: Did you get back into SPXU? I bought HSD in my Canadian account.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Eve, so Apple dropped to $572 exactly and bounced off it.. if it doesn’t hold I may short. On the sidelines now. I was doing well Mon-Thur and today is just not my day.. oh well.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Hey Ray!!
No. I waited for about 15 minutes – then hit the bid on FAZ. I suspected that GE would not hit the high notes – it’s a bellweather – then the whole group headed south. The last of the big banks to report(I think). But the players are fading this move.
There’s a nice downtrendline forming on Oil – it’s bounced off it 6 times so far – so I am looking to short at the 105.00 area. I’ll put in a tight stop just in case the sob runs up on me. I’ll ‘E’ the chart to you.
Best!
April 20th, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Slava,
Whoah!! There went support for AAPL at 571.91 – next stop is the 50 day at $569. If that doesn’t hold, then not a good sign
eve
April 20th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
# 87- Wayne… I’ve probably made more money on the Bomber over the years, every year, than any other stock. All I care about is catching the up trend…. if we get one….lol
Usually now good time of year until the Paris airshow in June.
There’s always negative news about the Bomber… is the stock tanking on this news? nope… just trading sideways….slowly creeping up. If the trend changes, I’ll be out. Not something I worry about.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Wayne,
just bot AAPL at @ 572, planning to sell the upside covered call…
Q. is May 12, 2012 exp. strike 610 @ $16+ prem. sounds good?
Planning to flip it on tues/monday if in gain.
they report on tues. after hours.
Pl. & Thx.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Eve, yes, when it rains it pours when it comes to Nasdaq stocks.. I wish I was short today – for some reason I’m not. With msft beating I was projecting more strength in AAPL.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Ania,
re LNKD today:
Just a super small bounce up today at 230 PM EST – unusual for it – BUT, with today being Friday AND options ex day, then it isn’t surprising at all!
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 3:16 pm
PS Slava,
Oh ok – for now, that $571 level held for AAPl – next week will be interesting with it reporting earnings – and with it being close to the 50 day ma
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Eve, still 45 minutes to go.. crazy day. I’m still wondering how much of this is due to options expiration today – perhaps it’s affecting AAPL in some weird way? Or is this a purely technical event? Or is the stock overvalued? Or is this because of the lawsuit? I have too many questions..
April 20th, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Slava,
Now if you had shorted LNKD at $108 today, you’d have done well as it just went to $103.80
it recovered now to $104.16 – typical of it to do 
it makes a new daily low after 2 pm (from the low made in the morn) and then bounces up from there (does it daily for the majority of times) 
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
And COG went from $31.54 down to now $30.17 even thought both ng and oil are up today.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Eve
in the last 9 days there was only one up day.
usually if you have consolidation at the bottom, don’t you have consolidation at the top.
never really looked at number of down days so I can’t give a more indepth analysis on this. will have to look into it.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
gmsa,
Look at the chart. You want to buy this??? Even selling the call will not protect you –
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p03275127939
April 20th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Slava,
cog went up yesterday while ng was taking a bath….so it’s a pay back time
April 20th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Wow – Wall street guys are good. Maximum pain for options on SPY is 138. Where are we right now – 138.14. What a bunch of crooks.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Eve
AAPL
in the last 9 days there was only one up day.
usually if you have consolidation at the bottom, don’t you have consolidation at the top.
never really looked at number of down days so I can’t give a more indepth analysis on this. will have to look into it.
but next tuesday is do or die for AAPL as they report earnings.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Slava,
AAPL isn\t overvalued at all – its p/E is only 16 LOL.
I was going to suggest to you yesterday to short RVBD as it ran up in price yesterday AND was reporting earnings last night – BUT, it missed last time around and I wasn’t sure if it would miss again – so, I didn’t say anything to you about it! It missed and is down today by close to $8!!! THAT would have been a nice short for you!!
Same too with SNDK – its down $5 today from earnings last night.
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
gmsa,
This is the chart I should have posted. Look at the bounce off of R1 – now it’s blasted down through the central pivot (IMP) and we have a 5/18 cross down, AND a 21 RSI cross below 50. Not good. I think that Newton discovered Gravity after seeing this!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
I hope that I’m wrong for your sake – but this is what the chart is telling me.
P & F is worse – targetting 505.00 as a bottom.
Best!
April 20th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Wayne,
thx for the chrt & the reply.
two gaps 550 & 564.
will quit if drops below 540
for flipping purspose only I bought this. Want to write naked calls as well on top of the covered call…but not v. sure about the naked call writing very much.
today’s bath mainly speculators unloading the long positions b4 the weekend – I feel.
between – acknowledge your comment from yesterday on the CEOs, exactly my point…however, I like how you put it colourfully
Also the Tall grass remarks yesterday lol
April 20th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
tony,
Oh AAPL reports on Tuesday?? Oh ok – I thought it was on Thursday. So, it makes sense then that AAPL is pulling back as much as it is just 2 days before reporting – it’s just making room for it to have a bounce up after earnings.
I don’t think AAPL has missed earnings in the last 3 yrs!
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Wayne,
just noticed your #107
thx for the further comments
appreciate.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Slava
CMG=417 was at 423 when I last wrote to you about it.
think the guys on fast money were right last week buying the selling the 420 puts and buying the 390 puts.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Eve
Apr 24, 2012
Q2 2012 Apple Inc. Earnings Conference Call – 5:00PM EDT -
April 20th, 2012 at 3:44 pm
tony,
LOL – that wasn’t necessary – I believed you when you told me the date – I was saying I was mistaken as I had thought it was on Thursday – but that with you telling me it is on Tuesday, then it made more sense to me as to why it’s down as much as it is today
So, I believed you tony 
no need to “prove” it to me LOL 
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Re: AAPL,
Here’s an article on Apple. I wouldn’t recommend the Condor tho.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/513511-apple-may-iron-condor
April 20th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
HGU makes me sick.. I’m down so much on this stupid thing – how can gold stocks just keep dropping whether gold is up or down? Just terrible. HGU is back to 52-week low.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
gmsa,
Re: Apple.
Here’s something to cheer you up from a fellow blogger.
Anyone who’s tracked AAPL for at least a year, understands it moves in scary roller coaster fashion: Up big, down big, up big. And, so far, the ups always are to awe-inspiring new levels. The smart trader buys the stock when others forget what the company offers and how it cycles. So, looking at what’s happening now: There’s lots of profit-taking, amnesia about how the stock is still undervalued and with a pipeline full of new products, and uh..oh yeah, China. Earnings are next week so expect a big run-up just before. Then, depending on what the quarter looked like, the stock could hit new highs or fall back another 5-8%. The thing is once we’re done here, there’s the new MacBook, iPhone, maybe new iPads, and the uber big one, iTV. All this will propel the stock well above $650, so at $588 (yesterday’s closing price), AAPL is a screaming good buy.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:55 pm
#104
Ray-Kitchener, I’m interested in hearing more about your comments on maximum pain for SPY options. Can you explain it to a newer trader please? Many thanks. (Eve, your posts are priceless too.)
April 20th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Hi Eve and Tony. I believe that AAPL missed on their earnings two quarters ago in October (?). You are probably right that there will be selling into earnings and they should exceed expectations again.
April 20th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Out FAZ at 22.61 from 21.81. Not holding over weekend!
April 20th, 2012 at 3:58 pm
s/b 22.21
April 20th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Ray,
U holding SCO thru weekend??
April 20th, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Michael, Wayne’s fellow blogger said that ” Earnings are next week so expect a big run-up just before”..
April 20th, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Hi Michael,
AAPL missed?? Oh ok – thanks for giving me the correct info on that Michael
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Slava,
Remember what I’ve written about AND proved over and over and over again about how stocks tend to act right before they report earnings: IF a stock is close to its all time high price OR yearly high price OR makes a run higher in price just before earnings reporting, then the stock will go down after they report – regardless of beating OR missing.
If a stock PULLS BACK right before earnings (by a rather good amount – not just by a $1 or $2 from its all time high or yearly high), then after reporting, the stock will move up in price!
RVBD and CMG just proved this yet again with their price action of today vs their price action yesterday of what they did before reporting yesterday after the close.
So, if AAPL moves UP just before earnings AND gets close to its yearly high (or even close to it at say $620), then that kind of price action would suggest the stock would be sold off after earnings reporting – I expect an up move in price after their earnings which means, no big run up in price going INTO their earnings
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Thanks Weaver
Re max option pain info that ray-Kitchener posted today on the SPX:
Ray got that max option pain thing from ME
and “I” got it last July from Rol Lew 
It’s about putting a stock ON options expiration day to the price point that will have the most pain for puts and calls at that strike price such that those calls and puts expire worthless. Ray I’m sure is going by the calculator I posted on here last year that gives the “max options pain price” for any stock or ETF – he’s using SPY as a proxy for the SPX (I told Ray and the board last year that I use SPY – the ETF – as a proxy for the SPX for the max pain price in the calculator).
I’ve explained though several times on here that the max pain price given in the monthly calculator cannot be relied upon by 100% as it can often be wrong – for where it states a stock’s max pain price will be “put” to (ie. is called “pinned” to in options slang) on options ex day (monthly options ex day that is – not weekly). Sometimes it’s bang on accurate – but other times, it is way off! So, it isn’t 100% accurate in reliability
Here’s the Max pain calculator I’ve given out on here last year for this:
oh sorry – I’ll have to post it in a separate post…
Look up info on max pain options price by googling it.
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Eve, I’m very curious to see what happens on Monday and Tuesday. Will be anxiously waiting. In the meantime my biggest worry by far is HGU. It can’t catch a break. I don’t care if I have to hold it for 6-8 months – I hope it can recover at some point. Behaviour of gold stocks is just puzzling to me, I just don’t understand why they are so beaten up – they are making decent money even though costs have risen.
April 20th, 2012 at 4:24 pm
Weaver,
Here’s that calculator – I’ve put in “SPY” for you so you could see what Ray-Kitchener was talking about re 138 and the SPX being pinned today to 1380:
http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php
Just scroll down to the bottom half of the page to see the SPY – you can see the little box above the chart too where it says: Stock Ticker – that’s where you can put in whatever stock or ETF you’re wanting to look at – I don’t know though if it works for Cdn stock tickers – I’ve only ever used it for US stocks/ ETFs.
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 4:27 pm
Slava
You think too much. As Ron/Bc used to say, ‘Follow the train tracks’ , that will keep you out of trouble.
April 20th, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Wayne,
Taking a break now for ‘breathing’… was holding lots of shorts on energy/silver/gold/coal/basemetal stocks…and for past 15-20days was getting the yo-yo action on those.
So decided to take out all those positions throughout the day, mistake that I was mentioning yesterday AM here on the blog is now fixed. Didn’t bother whether it was $48 profit or $729 profit, if a/c showed any gain – closed those positions.
Don’t care too much now if the markets go up or down come monday, will decide what to do 2 days from now. Freed up lots of margin too!
Still holding spxu,hxd and some other tech. stocks as short. So AAPL long should act as a hedge for the portf. – although for short term.
Next long position I want to take is in HND.TO was very tempted to take initial position today but since I was too focused on cashing out my ‘short’ profits had to let it go.
Reasons behind this action today- if Hollande’s win in France (Tawny’s fav. politican
) gives boost to the EUR/USD come monday, will get crushed on those many -so called ‘risk-on’- shorts.
Thx again for the comments & charts on AAPL. It came within $1 range of the 50sma.
.
Michael,Eve & Tony:
Found your inputs on AAPL worth reading as well.
April 20th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Wayne: Yes. I am going to swing trade with SCO.
April 20th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Slava,
re HGU – there is a time period in May when gold stocks go up – it’s a small window of time though, so it may not get up to your break even price of $10.20 area. The seasonal period for gold starts at the end of July – who knows though at what price gold stocks will be starting at in price at the end of July – but hopefully, you’ll be able to get out during their seasonal period. From end of July, gold stocks go up into beginning of Sept (1st 7 to 10 days of Sept usually).
BUT, here’s the thing with the gold stocks: remember that STOCKS “LEAD” the commodity – so, the fact that gold stocks just can’t seem to go anywhere in price to the upside, this could very well be suggesting that GOLD will be coming down in price. Once you see the gold stocks starting to go up by any conviction, then this is when you’ll see gold price start to move higher too!
And the same can be said for copper price today and the coper stocks:
Copper stocks today were telling us that copper price today being at $3.70 is not sustainable – the fact that the copper stocks started moving up in price when copper price was going down to $3.60 area tells us that copper price IS sustainable (FOR NOW) at the $3.60 level (like IN the $3.60′s) – but that anything higher than $3.70 (for now) is just not the right price for copper – if it were the right price for copper, then the copper stocks would have gone up again in price to show this – yet, they didn’t! So, expect copper to come back down again in the near term as this is what the copper stocks today were telling us.
Eve
April 20th, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Re post 124:
MCD and SLB today are other examples of what I’ve written in post 24 about price action of stocks BEFORE their earnings are announced – and other ones that did as expected this week (when looking at price action just before earnings announcement) were: TPX, HBI (for today), FFIV and EBAY this week
I’m sure there are others too but these are just some from this week that come to mind
eve
April 20th, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Eve, thanks for 131.
When I left for Mexico (and HGU was around $10.33) I was hopiong for a replay of last March to April period when HGU moved up about 21% from March 16 to April 11.. well, this year HGU did the opposite dropping -20% during the same time frame.
I have such bad luck! Why does it happen to me when I take such a large position!! I still don’t see an explanation why barrick is trading at April 2010 prices when gold was $1,150. Anyways, I keep repeating myself now
April 20th, 2012 at 5:51 pm
I was just recalling how I was dealing with the same HGU agony in December 2012.. sucker for punishment? I guess so.
April 20th, 2012 at 5:54 pm
December 2011.. I’m fast forwarding already to December 2012 – probably will be dealing with the same..lol
April 20th, 2012 at 6:48 pm
#133
Hi Slava, sorry to hear about your troubles with HGU. I’m in similar situation; not holding ETF, but bunch of miners that got beaten up big time. Short term I believe there’s more pain to come; hopefully the trend will reverse soon. I don’t want to offer you any trading advice, because I’m sure you have your own ideas on the subject. The only thing I’d like to say from my own experience, when trading ETFs in the past and found myself holding some losing positions I managed to trade my way out of the mess quite a few times. I don’t know what are your exact circumstances and how much time you can commit, but if you can/like you might try day trading HGU (on the up trending day with stop losses in place), so you can reduce your cost average (ACB) bit by bit. It worked in the past for me, but took long time and required quite a bit of discipline and tenacity. Good luck with whatever you decide – have a great weekend
April 20th, 2012 at 6:50 pm
For Slava # 134
http://charts.equityclock.com/?s=gold
April 20th, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Anna, thank you for the advice but I find that watching hgu/hgd daily is too much work and I’d rather concentrate on other stocks right now. Perhaps if/when hgu moves back to at least $9.50 I’ll exit and start trading the combo again but for now it’s too much work and my paper loss is around $40k at this price, crazy, I know.
WLM, thank you for the link in 137 – let’s hope gold stocks report decent results and move up in May as per seasonality charts.
April 20th, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Speaking of gold-related ETFs – anyone holding HEP or planning to buy some soon? Was looking at div. but not sure about their covered call write strategy – does it work well in this type of market? If anyone would be so kind to share some knowledge on the subject, it would be great – much appreciated.
April 20th, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Thank you Eve, I am looking to exit LNKD on Monday.
Have a great week-end, Ania
April 20th, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Tony,
Thanks for your analysis. I hope it can break 3.60 resistance.
I didn’t avg down, but I hope this is a good turn around story.
I put a stop loss at 2.65.
April 20th, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Not really sure what to make of fm.to chart… on the one hand 4ma crossed and fell below 9ma but then it’s pulled back on low volume this week while it went up on very large volume last week. I suppose we’ll see next week where Mr. Copper is.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FM.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p39471418272
April 20th, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Hi All,
Just wanted to share this article with the newbies out there.
A Trend Strength Hint from the Market (trend reversals)
http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/article/a-trend-strength-hint-from-the-market/
April 20th, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Slava # 138
See also today ….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21122031982&a=241497573
April 20th, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Hi Slava.
Hope your luck improves soon re HGU. AS you probably know this is a double leveraged ETF wether moving up or down and it is reset every day on closing which is why it is not advised to be used for a longer time hold of more than a few days to a week.
I know you have great trading skills and will trade your way back from this but since I have seen the compounded results as of this sort of trade in a downtrending market I thought I would mention it.
Best Gene
April 20th, 2012 at 9:58 pm
Anna/To # 139
Compare also 5m, 3m;
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XDV.TO&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=HEP.TO
April 20th, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Wayne,
re.#114, Iron Condor on AAPL for May
Funny that the same was later discussed on today’s ‘Options Action’ program on CNBC!
How true it is that just few days ago analysts were tripping over each other to raise the targets including $1000 & some heavy call option trading for $980 or so strike :O
And now that it’s down @ $71 (@10% from intraday peak), the same TV station is parading all those analysts (that I never heard before, Ever!) who are VERY bearish…lol!
Price tag makes all the difference, right? $64 stock down to $57 – no big deal but this is AAPL with extra zero at the end.
The Hockey Stick chart pattern that I have been waiting to see break, seem to have taken it’s first turn & those steep angled trend lines will flatten out somewhat now… unless the earnings & guidance are either really awesome or awful.
Last time I played from short side on AAPL was when it was around $400 – made money on those 3-4 shorts. Will see how this long position works with selling of CC.
Have to make up for those puts that I bought a month ago or so that gave me back big ’0′…not ‘revenge trading’ as you might call
This year’s $45 EPS & $100/share cash on their balance sheet.
Next year estimated $51 EPS after paying out the div. ($20Billion per year) will still be piling up huge cash on its balance sheet (from humongous FCF) is still the fundamentally strong co. with a promising iTV launch – although I never believe in these product hype.
Meanwhile some channel checks @ AT&T or Verizon says that activations are down a bit not sure on ipad or iphone…who knows.
I will sell my upside call (covered) when the volatility really spikes on this name mostly on Tuesday.
Here is an interesting take on the subject with some great screenshots of some awesome platform (I don’t even know confidently how to read/interpret those charts in detail & make best of it to create some strategy, so will stick to the basics only)
But I’m sure you can ‘see’ more there.
http://www.riskreversal.com/2012/04/20/aapl-just-spotted-the-very-rare-cupertino-condor/
April 21st, 2012 at 12:14 am
Wayne,
Next week seem to be both the Fed & BOJ on the menu…busy week for you I guess.
I didn’t expect so much strength in Eur/Usd this week, was actually hoping for DXY to close above 80.30.
Since you trade currencies, let me ask you these 2 things:
)
1. Is there anyway to confirm or see the total amount ($ value) of crosses traded in each pair? (w/o hacking into the respective central banks’ computers that is
For example: last severals days/weeks/months worth of historical data on ‘total amount of USD’ for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and so on?
I’ve even no idea about volume data on # of crosses changing hands let alone $ value tag.
2. Would there be a correlation in the popular currency ETFs with respect to their currency pairs/crosses – from $ value angle? I feel there shouldn’t be as these ETFs/derivatives are trading vehicles and/or hedging vehicles only. Not for actual money transfers/movements by individuals/corporations/govt. or central banks.
Will appreciate your reply; when you can please.
Thx.
April 21st, 2012 at 12:23 am
Ray-Kitchener,
re.#5
Thought you might like this:
“Suppose all 5th grade teachers at a given elementary school give their students ample amounts of candy before recess each day. This sugar high has led to wilder children on the playground. It has also emboldened the kids to act more dangerously as their risk-taking is near perfectly correlation with their classroom popularity. Taken together, the now rowdier mob of children has led to an increased number of serious injuries on the playground. And pretend for a moment that the rest of the student body is responsible for the hospital bills of these injured 5th graders. And pretend that prior to the teacher’s decision to sugar-up her students before recess the rate of injury was insubstantial. What might they do to mitigate the increased cost the public must pay for the hospital bill?
Easy. Lower the heights of the playground equipment and pay new playground police to monitor the situation closely. But don’t alter the pre-recess candy supply (maybe even increase the supply if the kids begin to look sluggish now that the playground equipment isn’t as inviting …)”
taken from-
http://www.blackswantrading.com/blog/bid/77200/Those-wretched-crude-oil-speculators#Comments
A comment I like (& is so true) at the bottom of that article is:
How much margin is required of NYMEX members per 1000 US barrel (42,000 gallon) contract? How many (what percentage) of the contracts traded are actually settled in delivery?
April 21st, 2012 at 9:37 am
gmsa,
# 46.
The condor that this guy is setting up reminds me of the Billy Walters strategy. Walters is THE most successful gambler in Vegas.
He is playing volatility – which in the case of Apple, is probably the highest probability trade you could execute right now. His timing needs to be precise to lay this on. Max loss, as he pointed out will be $ 5.00. On 100 contracts, that’s $ 50,000.00.
There’s no telling what Apple’s #’s will be like. The whispers will probably start to circulate on Monday – giving options traders a bit of an edge – maybe.
I don’t know why he would just lay on a simple strangle, (or straddle just before the close on Monday) – and if he is optimistic – go heavier on the calls. Trouble is, you are paying a premium on volatility. That’s why he’s laying on the condor.
One hard and fast rule I have is to NEVER sell p/c prior to earnings. You can get badly chewed up if it spikes either way.
You’ve got guts tho…. that’s for damn sure!
April 21st, 2012 at 9:44 am
Eve, thanks for the replies and the option calculator. Now I have something to look at this weekend besides income taxes.
April 21st, 2012 at 9:57 am
Does anyone here trade Arc Resources (ARX)? I was in it briefly this week, planning to hold for the dividend next week. The quick swing in price on Thursday and Friday gave me pause, so I exited with a small profit. I’m not certain where the markets in general are headed so have been very cautious in taking any long term position…but dang, I’d like to just settle in to something for a decent dividend!!
April 21st, 2012 at 10:12 am
gmsa
# 148.
1. No, there is no such reporting.
But if you go to the CME website, it will give you daily volumes of the currency – and futures options.
Here’s the page:
http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/volume-open-interest/fx-volume.html
The ETF,s track the currency well. I followed a study that asked that specific question and was satisfied with the answer. I use the Rydex group as my primary source. But these are specifc currency related ETF’s.
If you are looking for data on crosses, that’s not readily available. All of the Rydex ETF’s are traded in USD – if you go to Forexpros – hit the currency chart tab – it will give you up to date charts on the specific currency that you are trading.
BTW – the Yen has retraced somewhat. Since I am still long from 118 – I’ll exit if it drops below 120.00. But, I still expect a reversion to the uptrend.
Best!
April 21st, 2012 at 12:54 pm
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/canada/2012/04/gold-a-little-change-today-in-the-mining-stocks.html#more
April 21st, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Good morning guys, I’m at work today catching up.. no markets to distract me.
Here is Frank’s RGR chart which he created a few weeks ago. Probably a few more dollars left to the upside, a very strong stock and new 52-week high. Earnings will be reported in early May.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGR&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p46509961146&a=262513967
another look:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGR&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p27186144614
April 21st, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Gene and WLM, thank you both for your support
April 21st, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Post 155 is awaiting moderation so I’ll break it into two parts:
Good morning guys, I’m at work today catching up.. no markets to distract me.
Here is Frank’s RGR chart which he created a few weeks ago. Probably a few more dollars left to the upside, a very strong stock and new 52-week high. Earnings will be reported in early May.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGR&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p46509961146&a=262513967
April 21st, 2012 at 1:02 pm
More on RGR.. besides great technicals it’s also in the right sector right now – guns!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGR&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p27186144614
April 21st, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Apple looks very oversold based on RSI and CCI 20 ..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44003957239
April 21st, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Interesting website:
http://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=aapl
April 21st, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Great info on FCX and why it’s a buy from a fundamental point of view:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/04/21/10-key-reasons-to-focus-on-freeport-mcmoran.aspx
April 21st, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Slava re your mention of RGR,an option subscription I follow recommended this play and gave the following details for current trades which may be of interest:
Sturm, Ruger & Co. – RGR – close: 53.44 change: +1.92
Stop Loss: 48.90
Target(s): 54.85
Time Frame: exit prior to May 1st earnings announcement
Comments:
04/21 update: After Thursday’s questionable trading session it was nice to see RGR showing relative strength on Friday with a +3.7% gain. This is a new all-time high for RGR. Our exit target is $54.85 but more aggressive traders may want to aim higher.
We do not want to hold over the May 1st earnings report
April 21st, 2012 at 4:40 pm
SNDK at $51 a month ago and at $35 now.. that’s technology companies for you:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SNDK&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59708083433
April 21st, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Gene, thanks for #162.. I’ve been trading RGR back and force for some time. I should have just held after buying at $38 a few months ago.
April 21st, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Speaking of copper prices, take a look at the 5yr LME copper warehouse stock level:
http://www.copperenews.com/copper-warehouse-stocks.asp
From what I can see inventory is down to late 2008/early 2009 levels, this should provide support to copper prices
April 21st, 2012 at 8:23 pm
Hi Eve and TONY,
I was wondering if you could please give me your input on ATA.to.
Looking at the charts, it seems to me it’s in the oversold territory and would be best to wait for a pull back around its support level around $7.50: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ATA.TO&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p15164141753.
Great Thanks, Ania
April 21st, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Wayne,
First of all, many thanks for your replies @ #150 & #153 along with your view & the link of the cmegroup.
One of the reasons I was trying to find out the $ data in those crosses was to find out the strenght of the underlying currency flows and profit from it using the stocks & commod. complex.
re.FXY: I was reading somewhere about the correlation between the 10year treasury yield & usd/jpy cross…don’t remember the exact time frame the article was looking at but, I think, it was about past 1 year or so. I’m sure you will see it if you overlay them together on a chart. The article was concluding that the increased divergence in recent weeks between usd/jpy and the 10yr yield needs to be watched v.carefully and chances are that FXY will get pulled down i.e. rising usd/jpy. This ananlysis was partly focusing on recent double tops in 10yr yield which has yet to break below the base/neck line of 1.88%.
Once again, thanks for the prompt replies earlier today.
April 21st, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Beware of Defensive Stock Advice!
http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm3
April 21st, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Hi All,
An interesting article, titled: Talk to Your EGO Before You Trade!
Liked the bottom line as well —
Pick a chair close to the exit before you buy an equity and then sit down. As they say in the movie MARGIN CALL, “it’s not panic selling if you are first out the door.”
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/journal/2012/04/talk-to-your-ego-before-you-trade.html
good night!
April 21st, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Slava,
Weired equilibrium you’re trying to achieve with a combination of
LULU – good health, peace & progress with spiritual upliftment!
RGR – killings & destruction all over!
Missing are the liquor, smoke & gambling stocks – and if you do, then short LULU -ethically it will be correct (and balanced) thing to do.
What’s up with those ethical investors? huh?
Just noticed it, hence mentioning it…Cheers!
April 21st, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Ania
ATA.TO
beautiful chart just to bad I forgot about this one after I sold it in july at a nice profit.
nice train track 18/50.
this one just like cmg is trading on the 18MA tho it loves to pull back by approximately 50cents so I would suggest looking for an eventual 50 cents pull back to pull the trigger, if it should fall by more then 25cents below the 18MA I would be worried people would exit this one.
April 22nd, 2012 at 12:03 am
WLM
Thx for the defensive stock article, yes even the reits were killed back in 08. but as they say 80% of stocks move in tandem with the market.
you should look at th sh, qid, faz charts they all look the same, trading between 18 and 50MA break above 50 and its go long about to get an 18/50 bull cross on them.
April 22nd, 2012 at 6:57 am
Hi Eve,
Thanks for all the post esp on s&p,gold(stocks) & hvu/uvxy.
I looked at TDW & uvxy chrat is less than 6mnths & if I understand correctly then HVU is in C$ & hedged while uvxy is in US$. If one expects that C$ will appreciate (seasonality as per tech talk) & there will be fear starting next week till end of may then would one be better off holding ( if fear expectation plays out) HVU comapred to uvxy.
Just realised uvxy hold 30days futures & hvu 2 mnths.
Also would appreciate your views as to where you see these 2 going next week/month.
Thanks in advance
April 22nd, 2012 at 12:50 pm
gmsa
Just checking my e-mail and read ChartWatchers – noted above your post #169 and amazing, you posted the line at the bottom that I was just about to post. BECAUSE, just last night I watched the movie Margin Call on the TV – I heard that line.
What a movie! No wonder the 1% are attacking Wall Street. Imagine earning $250k at the tender age of 23….. and then on to those more amazing multi-million salaries and at the expense of ?????
April 22nd, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Thank you Tony.
April 22nd, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Hi Eve,
I will like to read your post in regards to company reporting and what to expect if the stock then goes down or up. I seen your post somewhere, could you please let me when you posted that information and what’s the post number if possible.
Thank you, Ania
April 22nd, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Hi Eve,
I meant company reporting earnings.
Thank you, Ania
April 22nd, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Ania
Earning report vs price.
I also, as Eve, have noticed in the past that most of the time the week prior to earnings if a stock moves lower upto earnings release usually earnings will be better then expected. if on the contrary price moves higher this is usually a bear signal that earnings will disappoint (even if they beat eps and all)
I traded rimm in the past and performed exactly as mentionned. Bought rimm on the monday at 98 and at the close on the thursday it fell to 92 after earnings were reported, it popped to 115. the next morning a fews weeks later i sold t at 135
April 22nd, 2012 at 10:17 pm
other companies I owned were bidu, but I had invested in it a month an a half earlier. so don’t remember how it performed as I was making money even though it lost some ground. FMCN is another company I bought but closer around two to three weeks prior to earnings but this one moved higher and after the earnings it lost 10$ so I was in the hole. This is when I came to the conclusion that price move is inversely related to how it will open after earnings.
But on fmcn had I kept it I would have made more then my money as two months later it was worth 10$ more then where I had bought it.
and all this I remember for two reasons I diversified my money between appl and goog back in 07 and this money was part of goog 10K investment that, switched to Rimm in early october, then switched to BIDU and finally bought fmcn.
April 22nd, 2012 at 10:19 pm
FMCN its not a loss of 10$ but lost 10$/sh
April 22nd, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Ania,
Let me try & if I am wrong Eve will correct me.
If stock price goes up days b4 earnings report then share price will go down even if co beats expextation. opposite is rue. If stock price is down days b4 earnings then stock will go up after earnings report irrespective if the co beats expectation or not. NB: Gold stocks are exception to the rule(they have a mind of their own).
Anna/TO
I do not own hep but according to Richard Croft you do not want to own this or write cc on gold stocks bcs by nature they are volatile & will be called away when stock goes up & you will be stuck with it when it goes down. Having said that I would encourage you to compare with XGD,ABX & YRI & you will notice HEP has underperformed.
I do own ABX & write CC based on seasonality. Hope this helps
April 22nd, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Muntazir
You still own gold stock but season has ended and will be back in july.
April 22nd, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Tony,
Yes I own ABX & have written cc for July48. Plan is I will write cc again in sept(original plan) or might rollover earlier. Looks its only 2 of us here. Probably others are getting ready for snow tomorrow
April 22nd, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Well we had some this morning on the cars.
And people say I am crazy when I say never swap snow tires before may 1st.
as there is always chance of snow in the first week of april.