ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Wednesday April 25th
U.S equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 Index futures gained 9 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures responded mainly to Apple’s higher than expected fiscal second quarter earnings report.
March Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT were less than expected. Consensus was a decline of 1.9% from February. Actual was a decline of 4.2%. Excluding transportation, consensus was a decline of 0.5%. Actual was a decline of 1.1%.
The United Kingdom economy officially entered into a recession after first quarter GDP was reported as a 0.2% annualized deficit.
First quarter earnings reports continue to pour in. Companies reporting overnight included Apple, Norfolk Southern, Amgen, Aflac, Nabors, Northrop, Sprint Nextel, Harley Davidson, Wyndham, Eli Lilly, Wellpoint, Encana, Caterpillar, US Airways, Southern Companies, Hess, Corning and Boeing.
Canadian National Railway is expected to open higher after Raymond James upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform.
US Steel added $0.45 to $28.10 after Macquarie upgraded the stock from Under Perform to Neutral. Target price was raised from $25 to $29.
JC Penney added $0.43 to $34.24 after BMO Capital upgraded the stock from Under Perform to Market Perform. Target was raised from $29 to $35.
Apple gained $55.22 to $615.50 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter results. In addition, Scotia Capital upgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Outperform and raised its target from $656 to $843.
United Technologies added $0.37 to $80.25 after Argus upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy. Target is $95.
Wal-Mart and McDonald’s could open lower after Argus downgraded them from Buy to Hold.
Technical Watch
Apple, Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) – $615.50 jumped 9.9% after reporting blow out fiscal second quarter results. The stock has a positive but deteriorating technical profile. The stock has a positive, but deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Resistance has formed at its all-time high at $644.00. The stock trades well above its 200 day moving average and is expected to open above its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and set to recover this morning. However, strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned negative early in April and seasonal influences turn negative at the end of April. Preferred strategy is to take profits on strength closer to the stock’s all-time high.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image001113.png "clip_image001[1]")
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image11.png "clip_image002[1]")
Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) –$75.00 added 2.5% after reporting higher that consensus first quarter results. The stock has a mixed technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Resistance is at $75.81 and $76.64. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average and is expected to open above its 20 and 50 day moving averages at the opening. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher, but are overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-December. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to take profits closer to resistance at $76.64.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image003113.png "clip_image003[1]")
The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image38.png "clip_image004[1]")
Caterpillar, Inc. (NYSE: CAT) – $107.20 fell 1.1% despite reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings. The company also lowered its second quarter guidance. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Resistance is at $113.77 and $116.46. The stock trades above its 20 and 200 day moving averages, but found short term resistance at its 50 day moving average at $109.36. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and starting to roll over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-December. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to take profits on strength closer to resistance at $113.17.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image005111.png "clip_image005[1]")
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image006[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image85.png "clip_image006[1]")
Interesting Charts
Responses to first quarter earnings report were substantial yesterday. Generally, companies that report significantly higher than consensus results saw their share prices move sharply higher (e.g. Apple after the close, Hersey, Baker Hughes, Illinois Tool Works, AT&T, MMM) and companies that reported less than consensus, in line or slightly higher than consensus results (e.g. Texas Instruments, Netflix, Big Lots, McGraw Hill, Air Products and Chemicals, US Steel, AK Steel, Zion Bancorp) saw their share prices move sharply lower.
Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column
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What Are You Worth?
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach
Did you ever ask yourself what you feel you are worth in trading?
A good way to evaluate what you are worth is to compare yourself with others who have worked to be successful traders.
· Have you gained resources from the past that will help you become a trader?
· Do you have enough capital for your trading business and for your trading account?
· How many books have you read?
· How many seminars have you taken?
· Do you have a mentor and or coach?
· Have you put together a trader’s business plan?
· Do you have a tested strategy?
· Have you been consistently earning money?
· Have you handled your self-sabotage issues that keep you from your full potential?
Now let’s evaluate the time that you have put into becoming a trader.
· All toll, how much time did it take for you to become a trader?
Now deduct:
· How much of that time was wasted because of bad choices?
· How much of that time were you undisciplined and not consistent?
Now let us look at other professions that could bring in a large return.
· How long does it take to become a doctor, lawyer or any other white-collar profession?
· How long does it take to become a recognized artist or professional athlete?
· How long has it taken others in trading to reach the top of their profession?
Based upon your answers, how much do you feel you should be earning from trading at your stage of development?
Most of the top traders that I know, if they have made good choices, take at least three years of earning a profit in trading before they are ready for becoming a top trader. And, this is only if they have the money, time, strategy and have overcome their self-imposed limitations. Trading is an exceptional business, but it is not for someone who thinks that they are going to earn top profits without smart decisions on how they use their resources.
The misguided trader
Ray was like so many traders I have met over the years who thought they could become an instant success in trading. I first met Ray at a Trader’s Expo when he laughed at the sign in my booth, “Discipline Problems – Stop Here.” He said like many who have passed my booth that he wanted to send me his children. Ray then asked me who I thought were the best teachers to get him to the top quickly, because he wanted to give up his profession as a doctor.
The next year, Ray showed up again at the Expo and said that he should have followed my advice, because he lost over $50K dollars and was no closer to giving up being a doctor. This time he came to my lecture and was willing to follow my advice about who to work with. The only problem is that he also decided to work with several other teachers as well and read about many different types of trading strategies.
Ray came to my booth the third year and said that he was now down over $200K dollars. What he was trying to do by incorporating so much advice was to filter out any possibility for losses. In doing this, he confused himself. He said to me that with all he had invested in time, money and aggravation he should be at the top of the trading profession.
What do you think Ray is going to report to me next time I see him at the Expo?
Conclusion
Just because you have the passion and put time, money and energy into trading does not mean that you deserve to earn a high reward for your efforts. It takes using those resources wisely to earn the top that the profession offers.
New Free Weekly Newsletter
More Articles by Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Coach
Sign Up at – www.TradingOnTarget.com
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Canfor Corporation (TSE:CFP) Seasonal Chart
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Interesting Globe and Mail Comment on Ontario taxing the rich
Tim Cestnick offers some interesting observations
The connection between copper and equity markets
GlobeandMail.com headline reads, “Copper market signals a nasty outlook for equities”. Following it the link:
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 24th 2012
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April 25th, 2012 at 8:35 am
Hi Michael. Hope you are well. What are your thoughts on SLW.to here ~$28.30 ? I’m also tempted again by AXR.to ~$6. Thanks,
Paul
April 25th, 2012 at 8:54 am
Make or break day for the Gold/Silver & poss. the markets?
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/gold-close-to-declaring-its-next-significant-move-121204
Not sure how to take the position in the precious metals….
Sell OTM puts on (esp.Goldcorp) & also buy OTM calls on GDX?
Suggestions, anyone?
April 25th, 2012 at 9:24 am
Hi Paul. I would have been doing better if I had bought Apple and held onto Sprint! SLW is oversold but still could drop to around $26 and hit the downtrend line. As for AXR, it dipped below support around $6.25 which is never a good sign BUT could be on its way to a recovery since when it hits or comes close to the lower Keltner, it seems to recover. The big caveat today is that Bernanke is speaking. He might be inclined to hint at another quantitative easing (good for precious metals) given the signs of a slowing economy; however, if he doesn’t, silver and gold will likely tumble. I’m looking to add to my half position of SLW and repurchase either CEF.A and/or HZU given that silver tends to go up briefly in May:
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_metalle_silver.html
April 25th, 2012 at 9:27 am
Hi Eve,
What is your TA on LULU at this point please? It should pull back to the 4ma today I guess? Do you think its a good short around the 4ma and do you expect it to drop lower into further next week?
Thanks,
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 9:29 am
From yesterday’s market close @ 4pm to current 9:25am
USD/CAD: Has dropped from 0.9885 to 0.9834
Dual listed big caps expected to show weakness as compared to their US listed counterparts.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:43 am
gmsa, thanks for the link re gold – good read
April 25th, 2012 at 9:46 am
Slava,
you’re welcome, it’s going to be a very important day for you.
DXY is down today because of the fear from BernanQQQ
Sold my AAPL shares @ 613 – missed the 617spike by few precious seconds
watchin the puts & calls anxiously
Gains none the less.
Cheers!
April 25th, 2012 at 9:49 am
Goldcorp is reporting after hours today yet there is no short-covering or buying happening.. actually Goldcorp and Barrick just turned red again. It’s been a huge test of my patience to say the least. I suppose we’ll see what the numbers are this afternoon.
Also, durable orders are down in the USA yet railroads are up again strongly.. If economy is not doing that well as per housing and other recent data then why do railroads keep going up? CP is settping up to be a good short in May.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:50 am
Gmsa
Well, with the jump up today are you remaining bearish?
Bnaqui speak and markets will squeak! Will gold soar or stocks sour?
R U ready to gamble today?
April 25th, 2012 at 9:57 am
gmsa, as you know I sold my Apple yesterday in the after-hours.. was tempted to rebuy today when they dropped from $615 to $607 but I feel so gun shy.
I did pick up some gmcr for a trade..
April 25th, 2012 at 9:59 am
At what time is Bernanke speaking?
April 25th, 2012 at 10:04 am
I see it’s a 2:15 EST.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/default.htm
Great, I’ll be at work in meetings..
April 25th, 2012 at 10:07 am
Slava,
fomc rate decision 1230hrs,
press conf. with Q&A @ 2pm
Tawny,
Still all other positions are same.
I’m still looking for the markets to go down.
Actually sold more AAPL upside call to collect prem. hope Ben tanks the markets.
will look at some gdx & g options @ 12noon time.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:13 am
GMSA, Eve, Tony, Tawny,
SPX breaking above downtrend line from end of March and above 18ma for now. Is much of this an Apple related spike for a day? Are we still in a downtrend into May? Still holding my SPX shorts and getting nervous.
Thats a huge gap in AAPL too, wonder if that will get filled soon. Can someone shed some light on whether AAPL options are pointing lower for May?
Thanks
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 10:13 am
Rol Lew,
you said yesterday that the 500puts should tank close to nickel or so.
It did but I was busy looking the AAPL price to sell my long
AAPL 500put came down to 0.05 and now 0.47. Will buy back those to free up my margins.
610 AAPL calls still much higher from my 7.90 cost, current 23+ will wait for them to turn down.
Sold 620aapl may19 calls to pocket @ $20 prem.
Glad to see that AAPL found resistance at 618 as I predicted & placed my bets around it yesterday b4 the close
Thx again for your help.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:16 am
KC,
pl. look at my note to Tawny @ #13 for the answers to your questions.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:25 am
Anyone holding or looking at MG.TO ? Ron Miesels indicated it might be a good buy a little lower from this price. I think he said he sees it in an uptrend, I dont.
Eve : Do you see it going to bottom Keltner? Would you stay away form it for now?
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 10:25 am
Thanks gmsa
April 25th, 2012 at 10:27 am
Go GMCR Go! +4.6% so far.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:31 am
Tony, Eve,
I would love to hear your thoughts/TA on SBUX and FTK as well.
Do think SBUX is a safe buy at its where it is today (midKeltner and 18ma)? Stop loss at $58?
FTK in an uptrend since October, seems to have broken uptrend on monday, but MAs 9/18 are moving sideways? What do you think please?
Thanks,
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 11:12 am
Got stopped out of gmcr for a nice profit.. off to work now. Keeping my fingers crossed for gold stocks!
April 25th, 2012 at 11:14 am
We haven’t seen mick/inv for some time.. mick, where are you?
April 25th, 2012 at 11:15 am
Looking at gold futures on Forexpros, looks like price manipulation to me. Looks like somebody does not want gold to go up.
April 25th, 2012 at 11:18 am
Slava,
You do seem to be good at day trading indeed. Can you share what strategy you use and whether you avoid a buy in the first 1/2 hour in the morning or do you not worry about false indications within that first half hour?
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 11:22 am
Slava
I have been around just nothing to contribute at the moment. been selling some stocks, bought PFE a couple of days ago. Hope you are making some money today.
April 25th, 2012 at 11:24 am
gmsa
As noted yesterday, sold most of my Nasdaq bear yesterday. Wondering where to place more bear $… what sector (s) do you think will be / are the weakest?
Would appreciate your thoughts here.
April 25th, 2012 at 11:31 am
Tawny,
Put your bets on SQQQ again. Can’t loose much from here on unless spx settles above 1394-1400 range.
Ben’s Q&A and the market reaction to that will show eventually where we are going.
Also look @ #13 – the last line.
I’m still holding spxu, hxd, hnd & other shorts.
April 25th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Hi Eve: The Bradley date turned out to be positive thus far. The S&P head and shoulders invalidated, however its far from the 4MA, so tomorrow I guess could be down a tad.
Michael: I am holding PD.to, out by about $60 wonder if I should sell, most analyst aren’t optimistic on drillers. Your thoughts are appreicated. Thanks and happy trading.
April 25th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Michael, re #3, thank you ! Paul
April 25th, 2012 at 11:44 am
Hello Don,
I have this to reply to Tim Cestnick:
It is from Elizabeth Warren. It applies to Canada, as well.
“I hear all this, you know, ‘Well, this is class warfare, this is whatever.’ No. There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own—nobody.
You built a factory out there? Good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory—and hire someone to protect against this—because of the work the rest of us did.
Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea. God bless—keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is, you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.”
I also really like this:
April 25th, 2012 at 11:54 am
Hi kay. I don’t follow PD, but it looks encouraging as it seems to have found a bottom/consolidation while the 4-day MA has crossed the 9-day. If history repeats, the top of the trading range is between $12 and $13, which would be a nice gain. On a PE basis and an FYI, it’s more expensive than TCW and CFW. As for the analysts, I would say that they are more often wrong than right.
April 25th, 2012 at 12:11 pm
gmsa, tawny,
What is the difference between SDS, SH, SPXU please?
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Gmsa, Tawny, Tony, Mick, Lin,
Do any of you play European indicies ETFs? How can we play inverse of EWU, EWI, EWS and such?
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Michael: Thanks for your comments, I will hold and place stop loss.
April 25th, 2012 at 12:25 pm
gmsa
Thanks you for both #13 and #26.
I would expect if the Fed does not indicate further easing that gold could drop – I have had my sights at around 1600 before buying CEF.
I am not into options, but could buy HBD.
If you are looking at GDX, you are going long?
April 25th, 2012 at 12:27 pm
#32/33
http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/leveraged-etfs.html
April 25th, 2012 at 12:28 pm
KCV re #32 – you should be able to discover these differences for yourself on an ETF site…. sorry, but at times a little research effort is best way to understand and remember for yourself.
Re #33
I looked into finding ways to play Europe down a while back… for specific countries, I think you would have to short, if your bank has stock. To short Europe as a whole there is EPV which I have done… hope this helps.
April 25th, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Took a nibble at Goldcorp this am at 39.50. Looking at long term chart, $40 has been
a major support, so if it breaks lower (closes below $39) I am out as it likely means
gold will go down from here. Also nibbled at AEM as an oversold candidate. Will also
sell if it breaks below $32.
I haven’t been trading gold stocks for months but think they are trying to find a bottom
here. If not, I’m out and will have very little loss. But if they seem to be rising from
this level, I’ll nibble a bit more. Gold is a useless metal and is driven by psychology
more than anything else. I’m not married to any gold holdings but just treat it as an
occasional indulgence for purely opportunistic reasons.
April 25th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Gold – timberrrr! Yet again, after FOMC “news”
April 25th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Tawny,
wrote to you on GLD levels yesterday, I believe.
157 & then 150
Don’t rush YET to get into CEF…when gold goes down why own CEF?
Major move will occur soon.
.
KC,
I don’t know those off top of my mind. I would check yahoo or the proshares website for subtle differences.
April 25th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Anna, I wonder why.. This sounds bullish for gold:
“The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at a meeting of its policy-making committee, reiterating the central bank’s vow to keep rates at “exceptionally low” levels if necessary through late 2014.”
I was reading Mark Leibovit’s notes this morning and he firmly believes that the Fed is holding down the gold price via intervening in the futures markets.
April 25th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
#41
Slava, markets hoped (again) for some QE3 hints – so far nothing. Prolonged low interest rates old story. I agree with Fed manipulating the prices, but for now looks like they are successful – every chance of breakout is nipped in bud. Short term I see more pain for gold and miners (HGU) – arrrrghhhh….
April 25th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
#41
Slava, I don’t know if you are familiar with this site – it has wealth of gold-related info. Highly recommend!
kitco.com
April 25th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Anna, I’m really worried.. yet to trigger a loss of $51k on HGU? I suppose I’ll need to ride this one out but it’s very hard mentally, barely slept last night. I don’t know what to do.. Goldcorp reporting this afternoon.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Morning KC
I use EWC to hedge my USD. I haven’t used these Bear ETF yet. It will be the same TA anyway.
May be Tawny can help with these.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
gmsa
Re CEF – I said I was thinking of it IF gold got to around 1600.
Oops, did not think about your comment on GLD from yesterday… getting old, I am!
April 25th, 2012 at 1:04 pm
KC, it’s hard to explaing my day trading strategy.. do they call it “reading the tape”.. or smth like that? There is a bunch of stocks I follow and I look at the overall markets, underlying commodity prices, news, charts, volumes, etc. and the way the stock tends to behave compared to its peers, etc. Also, most of the time I put a stop loss after I purchase trying to limit my loss to not more than $300 or so. The problem is when my stop loss doesn’t get triggered since most of the time I would put a stop limit price and the price sometimes plunges through that without triggering a sell. Sometimes I buy in the first 30 minutes if I see a “good deal” as in if a stock open sharply lower, gaps down and then starts to recover quickly.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Slava, I’m so sorry about your HGU – hang in there! Maybe for now don’t take any other unnecessary risks with your portfolio – avoid juniors and stay as much as you can in cash; close some of your winners or protect them with stop losses – preserve your wealth until you see a trend form (bull or bear). Right now markets are very choppy and it’s very hard to successfully trade. If you have “sure bet” day trades – go for it! Just keep your positions small and set up stop losses! Good luck – keeping my fingers crossed for quick turn around!
April 25th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Slava
so you are reading the tape. girl , there you go.;)
April 25th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
See Slava, gold already bounced back up a bit – HGU at day’s high
April 25th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Lin, I’m trying to be humorous
..lol.. I like the sound of it “reading the tape” – very sophisticated.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:11 pm
What just happened? Gold jumped up all of a sudden? Crazy markets..
April 25th, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Hi Slava. As of this second, gold and silver are recovering. All is not lost!
April 25th, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Anna, thank you
April 25th, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Hey Lin, will you be visiting Vancouver as part of your travels this time around?
April 25th, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Tawny,
Sorry forgot to write about GDX, looking to go short on it via options.
Also may decide to go long hgd & short individual precious metals equities.
but not much price movement to confirm bear side YET.
Gold $1617 & then $1600-psychological support- needs to be taken out.
May be reporters will try to get Ben say something specific?
May be another 70-90 dollar move on downside?
Just dreaming, may be…
Another data: Gold was hit hard against almost all the major currencies by upto 1% after the FOMC meeting data. Came to unchanged on most. Recovered the best (actually in green now) against the YEN & REAL.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Post Fed statement immediate gold/silver action:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-responds-coy-fed
interesting….
April 25th, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Lin: Nice seeing you on board. What is the market telling, much more upside. I noticed you were long VIX, are you still holding. Happy trading.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
So what caused the gold to snap back up? So volatile – it’s crazy. Here is an acticle from kitco:
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120425JW_update.html
April 25th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Gmsa
Thanks for #56 and expansion of pm views. I am typing with playbook – not so easy. Ha ha learning curve, I am at low end of curve.
Have not yet bot more bears as market is still up bound?
April 25th, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Slava
I am not very sure when I will be Vancouure. If I do , I will let you know. Thanks anyway.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Hi, kay
Yes, I have got very 1/2 position on HVU.to. Will add more when it under 3. If it is going to there. Anyway, we are getting there for bear ride.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Lin, if you have a minute – what are your thoughts on COG and PCLN? Thanks.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:35 pm
I think the world knows that whatever Bernanke says needs to be taken with a grain of salt.. Euro kind of screwed, UK may be slipping back into recession.. and here is US debt clock:
http://www.springgrovemnheritagecenter.org/u-s-national-debt-clock-real-time/
China is already prepared to pay Iran in gold for its oil..
April 25th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Slava,
Slava Says:
April 25th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
So what caused the gold to snap back up?
That’s why Stphen Whiteside says “PRICE IS TRUTH”.
All the gold bugs (including Mr. Leibovitt) believe that Fed & Central banks are keeping the PM prices low artificially…but aren’t they (bankers) the one gave boost to the gold price?
So why blame them when they are bringing it down?
It’s just human emotions that we resort to conspiracy theories when thing don’t work out the way we like. Nothing wrong as it’s eventually about our own money & how we want to invest, right?
April 25th, 2012 at 1:45 pm
#47.
Slava,
When you have more time, please add more of an explanation to KC.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:46 pm
COG is on longer term down trend, 23 would be next target.. I may wrong but that what I have seen on the charts.
PCLN, I will read more and post here later on. Slava.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
gmsa, re #65 .. or perhaps there is only so much the Fed can do with its manipulation and international buyerse of gold futures can see throught the BS.
Europe (and Euro) are dealing with huge issues.. as we can see now a lot of Europeans are not welcoming the severe austerity measures – be it Greece or Spain or France or Holland, etc. US has a huge and growing debt. Japanese Yen will go down as well. So if you are China, Russia, Brazil, etc. – would you be in a rush to keep your hard earned money in US dollar, Euro, UK Pound or Japanese Yen given the issues with those currencies? I don’t think so.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Hi Slava. Well, the Fed seems to be committed to low interest rates until late 2014. Not a smart commitment. Inflation can easily pop up without higher rates to tame it. With that in mind, gold is still seen as an inflation hedge. Interestingly, ABX is lagging at this point.
April 25th, 2012 at 1:55 pm
#51-Slava
“reading the Tape” is an old expression from the days of the Ticker Tape Machine which was in use before electronics. In those days, streaming stock quotes would be printed on a narrow piece of paper, just like a “tape”.
See picture:
http://www.edisonticker.com/
April 25th, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Canuck, the 2nd photo from the top is a fairly accurate description of my facial expression during the market hours on most days.. lol
April 25th, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Anybody playing the COG b4 the results tonight?
April 25th, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Slava,
I heard this morning that Russia is buying gold. Eventually gold will rise again. I would hang on if I was holding your hgu position, unless I saw better opp elsewhere and needed to free up some cash – theni would only sell portion…. If this was my decision to hold, I would then accept the status quo and stop worrying. I still hold some hvu at large loss – fear will return sooner or later. I hope this point of view is somewhat helpful to you.
April 25th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Hi Ana, I don’t really have much more to add to #47 as I don’t really have the exact “system” – I just go with what I see (and I also make mistakes obviously).
I’ll give you an example of what I do.. so right now I’m watching gmcr.. currently the price is $45.74 and falling.. you will also notice how $45.61 is today’s support line. So as I’m watching GMCR (and the markets plus other momo stocks), I may buy around $45.65 or so if the price gets down to around $45.61, holds and bounces back. If it drops below $45.61 and continues to head lower than I’m out with a small loss.
April 25th, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Slava,
re.#68
what you stated is true for months now if not years.
when trouble is smelled, DXY is the one place to go. Not good for gold, Period!
Did recent spanish & Italian issues brought any floor to the $gold? No, right?
I wrote often about overlaying silver on top of the gold chart with time frame adjusted to show peaks at the same time…it is the psychology that plays the game eventually.
After the SNC got hit with bad news etc. and when it was recovering to just above 42 wrote here about ‘one cockroach’ theory and today it took the low out from late Feb. Brokerages were all telling ‘screaming buy’ with average target price of 48 dollars, guests @ BNN were painting all rosy pictures & so on.
Same with Walmart now…time will prove it sooner.
CG.to mentioned about them coming out with bad news & mine issues etc. (similar to AEM issues), it’s steadily sliding ever since (ofcourse, after trapping bottom fishers on the bounce up first).
SNDK, FSLR, BBY, HPQ etc. – the stories change, but the psychology remains the same which gets reflected in the price.
April 25th, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Darn, down we go again.. gmsa, did you buy hgd?
April 25th, 2012 at 2:07 pm
#44-Slava
Sorry for butting in…. but I can’t stand it anymore…lol…
If you have trouble sleeping over an investment, the old saying is to “sell to the point of sleeping soundly”.
Now I have taken losses in the past, some as large as 200k, but not on one stock however. A 200k loss is a big loss, but a ot better than a 500K loss. Like they say, your first loss is your best loss (meaning whenever you decide to bail as the loss is capped).
Losses must be taken in a cash account and you don’t have to sell it all. But stock losses can be carried forward indefinetely for tax reasons, and can be applied to the last 3 years to any capital gains you paid tax on. You will get the tax back for those 3 years and it will allow you to make a lot of money, tax free, over the next few years.
Charts on HGU are not good and it is currently in a bear trend. How low can it go? you tell me… P&F chart targets are quite low…these show the potential bear target IF the trend continues.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=HGU.TO,PLAADANRBOPADF1!3!1.0!!2!20&pref=G
There is no shame in taking losses, it’s natural in this game. Even the best, like Buffet takes losses. It’s not always a bad thing AND it leaves enough to make it back somewhere else. Don’t wait until it’s all gone… wait of an up day and start bailing. You can always make it back.
But you shouldn’t suffer like this, not worth it, life is too short… but that’s what old guys always say…lol… like me.
April 25th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
gmsa, it says here that COG will report during market hours:
http://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=cog
P.S. What you said in #75 makes a lot of sense
April 25th, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Tawny, thanks for your post and support
HVU is bound to spike again in the next few months.
April 25th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Canuck, so potential target on HGU is $2.58 according to this chart (if I’m seeing reading it correctly?).. wow.
I’ve never taken such a large loss on one stock/etf. I think the largest one so far was CMG short at $17k… last month.
April 25th, 2012 at 2:29 pm
For those watching gold:
http://www.kitco.com/reports/template_jimw.htm shows Gold solid support $1613.
April 25th, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Is Eve not well or away today?
gmsa, Tawny,
What is your take on SPX after fed speech?Do you think the rest of this week will be an UP/sideways days or can we expect it to go back below 1380? If it closes above 18ma is that a short term trend change ?
Thanks
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Canuck2004,
If you have some time, would you be able to verbally interpret this chart. I am unfamiliar with a P&F Chart.
April 25th, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Canuck2004:
Would appreciate to hear your opinion on the market. Are you selling stocks in margin account re seasonality. I read you usually hold RRSP account, Bradley date so far was positive, do you anticipate any change in market direction in the near term 1-5 days. Thanks and Happy Trading.
April 25th, 2012 at 2:47 pm
KC,
moving averages don’t matter esp. the short term ones like 4,9, 20 in these kinds of markets. Look at the larger picture first & then watch the support/resistance levels in light of the events. One step at a time….esp. if you’re doing short term trading.
No one has any crystal ball.
Besides, Eve is busy minting her ‘Goden Coins’ at the moment
April 25th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
“” Also, most of the time I put a stop loss after I purchase trying to limit my loss to not more than $300 or so. The problem is when my stop loss doesn’t get triggered since most of the time I would put a stop limit price and the price sometimes plunges through that without triggering a sell.”"
Slava,
Are you talking about 1000 shares here?
So 30 cents per share?
Or is this $1 loss on 300 shares?
Or could be $3 loss on 100 shares?
The loss is the same $300.
But I would think that the $3 loss may be easier to avoid.
There is a method to this madness – think about it.
”………………..
Lin, Slava,
Can you point me to a couple places where I can read the tape?
I sure would like to know what that is all about.
I have i-trade and interactive brokers – they do not mention that,
I don’t think.
………………….
Slava, do you have freestockcharts dot com.
I would like you to have a look at the 2-hour GDX chart.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=157b40b1-127e-4f46-be92-2d834ec93f02
Don’t just stand there, do something. Your house is burning down.
No – the fire will not go out by itself – that only happens in the
movies, and not too often either.
gmsa, did you look at gdx puts?
gdx is 45.89 the June 45 puts are 1.79 /1.81 and have 51 days to go. Delta is -.42
25 puts will cost 4525, equal to the money you made on 100 shares of appl today.
The next meaningful support for gdx is down around 41 which is $5 from here. If gdx falls by another $5, these puts will gain around 2.50, so 6250. That would be better than watching your hgu holdings continue to bleed. If HGU then starts to go up tomorrow, then at least the bleeding has stopped.
April 25th, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Slava,
no position in any PM or HBP etfs yet except for some OTM GDX puts that I bought few hours ago.
I’m also short puts in Goldcorp (collected prem.) & willing to own if put to me.
Thx for the COG related link…I know they are reporting afterhours today & conf. call is 2moro AM at 930.
April 25th, 2012 at 3:00 pm
I have never seen “read tape” is so funny at these picture.
April 25th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Ooops @ #85
meant to say ‘GOLDEN COINS’
April 25th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Slava
Re your response to me – HGU will go up again too… Charts show May on Equity Clock – do look at this then do WHAT YOU ARE COMFORTABLE WITH AND WILL STOP WORRYING YOU SO!
Consider YOU underlined for emphasis.
http://charts.equityclock.com/?s=gold
April 25th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Gmsa,
#83, 86
Thats why I asked about the 1380 or maybe its 1379. That was support/resistance in the past. Essentially my question is whether SPX will back off from 1390 resistance this week or tear through it to 1400 and then back down from there. If it does back down from either of those, then will it again bounce off 1379 or I guess it could head down to 1365 area. :S
Thanks for your comments,
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Slava
More….. the central banks are buying more gold – no one has given up on it ! Not for long.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/russia-and-mexico-both-buy-nearly-1-billion-worth-gold-march
Above is from April 24th ..
Russia And Mexico Both Buy Nearly $1 Billion Worth of Gold in March
Central banks are expanding reserves due to concerns about the dollar, euro, sterling and all fiat currencies.
There is an increasing realisation amongst central bankers that gold is a less risky alternative to most paper currencies and a recent survey showed that that majority of central bank reserves managers were favourable towards gold.
Signifying the mood of caution among the world’s central bankers, 71% of those polled said gold was a more attractive investment than it had been at the start of last year.
Central banks added 439.7 tons last year, the most in almost five decades, and may buy a similar amount if not more in 2012, the World Gold Council and many analysts believe.
April 25th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
#83-Ana
P& charts are some of the oldest charts around…
http://support.stockcharts.com/forums/30077/entries/21293
April 25th, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Rol Lew,
re.# 86 bottom part comment to me
I’ve no position in hgu/hgd/hbu/hbd/dust or any other individual equties at the moment no longs or short.
Have been on a short put position on G.to & willing to take long position if put to me under 39.
Did a silly move couple of hours ago & went for cheap, I mean really cheap OTM 43.5 GDX put at $0.08…here is the worst part, 2 days left on expiry
Guess it was a way too silly move on my part for a quick gain.
+ve is only $100 bet on that.
Might close it or just let it go up in the smoke…
Thx for the june GDX put suggestion, will think about it poss. after the market close (for a quieter & more balanced thoughts).
April 25th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
#84-kay
RRSP I’m rebalancing due to recent REIT mergers where I owned both names and now have larger than desired positions.
Will more than likely redeploy in CHB and XHY as yield is better and increases diversification in my 100% equity by adding US junk corporate Bonds (hedged to CAD).
MARGIN ACCOUNT: sitting pat on “core” defensive names (pipelines, REITs, etc) waiting to see an opportunity in more aggressive names that I follow and usually trade often… nothing so far. Maybe this year I will not make money on the Bomber…who knows?…one day at a time…lol…I do expect the market to rebound in the next couple of weeks… S&P 500 and DOW are steady as she goes and TSX seems to be recovering…
April 25th, 2012 at 3:26 pm
gmsa
Just bought back my SQQQ (Nasdaq short) at almost $1.00 less than I sold it foer yesterday…. It has been hugging its 4ma.. so it could bounce up tomorrow, even if it doesn’t stay there…
April 25th, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Rol lew
Buying any oil stocks? I am looking at CVE which has a 4/9 cross, down a little today on essentially good reporting.
I am interested in this one – any comments anyone?
April 25th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
#80-Slava
yep 2.58 if the trend continues. In any case leveraged ETFs are for short term trading and should not be held too long… listen to what Berman says about them (on BNN Mondays).
April 25th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Tawny,
Good for you on sqqq for nailing down the timing in your favour.
cheers!
April 25th, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Canuck Re #98
I hear you but Whiteside uses them (leveraged ETFs) extensively and holds them for some time until trend changes… He IS very successful.
April 25th, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Canuck2004: thanks for your comments, you sure know how to pick those dividend paying stocks.
April 25th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Is anyone holding fm.to? I’m trying to decide whether I should sell or hold.. Is today’s increase of any technicla significance?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FM.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p82999508776
April 25th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
gmsa
Re #99
Will see in next day or two if this was a good move – may have been better to leave as SOLD.
What do you think of energy stocks now… I am interested in CVE ?
April 25th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Slava – did you see #92 – for you?
April 25th, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Joe Terranova of Fast Money show on CNBC:
He was SUPER –
bearish on AAPL for past many weeks – AAPL did the opposite.
bullish on TXN & JNPR after their recent Q. releases- both went down 3-5%
bullish on COG after 2 for 1 split announcemnt- it never came back to those price levels, NEVER!
bullish on IBM b4 it 200mark – was repeatedly saying ‘date with 200′ since last nov/dec/jan. Then he gave up on IBM about 200 price tag & it hit 200 in feb.!
Does all these mean – you buy when we sell & you sell so we can buy?
.
Wayne,
Nat gas up 5+%, time to buy more HND.TO now?
thx.
April 25th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Hi Tawny, just saw it, thank you. I’m glad gold didn’t fall apart today. I so hope that the seasonality plays out in May. More on gold:
http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/25/matt-badiali-equities-will-catch-up-to-higher-gold-price-gdx-nem-abx-gg-slw-rgld-kgn-mvg-sa/
April 25th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
gmsa
Re Nat Gas – it just might continue to go up… will some time
April 25th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Sold half of my fm.to at $21.18.. will keep the rest. A lot of buying late afternoon.
April 25th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Any Whiteside listeners?
Whiteside indcated today that if AAPL closes above $607 he sees that as a buy signal. However, how do we know what his upside target is and when to get out?
Thanks
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Does anyone know what those channels are that Whiteside uses in his video and how they are used ?
KC
April 25th, 2012 at 4:16 pm
#77, #83, #93:
Canuck2004,
I was attempting to ask, how the number of $2.58 was arrived at.
The same chart, now states, $1.76.
April 25th, 2012 at 4:16 pm
#77, #83, #93:
Canuck2004,
I was attempting to ask, how the number of $2.58 was arrived at.
The same chart, now states, $1.76.
April 25th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Ana, I don’t think that chart is accurate when it comes to double leveraged ETFs. If hgu were to fall to $1.76 from this level than all major gold producers would have to go out of business.
April 25th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Tawny,
Speaking of dilemma on being undecided, no guts no glory…no pain no gain.
FED is walking the tight rope on their dual mandate.
Gut/glory part perfectly applies to me on my today’s $gold views. Nothing significant on gld/slv part (chart wise) as well. No money made on these, nothing lost either (except for that darn stupid gdx put purchase for 80 + 20-comm.
Don’t follow energy stocks like su,cpg,cve or cnq.
Sorry can’t say specific on these. Heard on TV few times that components of OIH oversold & charts show ‘trying to recover’.
OIH: still not broken above the downtrend line yet. $wtic might be a drag on all the names though, if it fails to break above 106/109 level. Don’t know CVE enough to comment on it’s pros./cons.
.
Slava,
Good day for you with longs like tck/fm/fcx & hgu.
Cheers!
April 25th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
gmsa, thanks. I need a few good days in a row! (more like a few good months in a row to get out of the mess).
I’ll know better next time when I go on vacation to drastically reduce my equity exposure prior to departure. Who buys $230k worth of HGU and goes away without logging in for three trading days? I must have had a sun stroke named “Michael”.
April 25th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Question for anyone here who has a long term buy & hold view.
One of my better holdings is Inter Pipeline Fund (IPL.UN)
My total return so far is 48% and I’d hate to give a lot of that up when a sharp correction occurs. I’d like some input as to where to place a stop which would keep me in during normal market swings, but get me out in a serious down turn.
The 20 MA on the monthly chart looks reasonable to me; right now it’s about 16% below the high. I could live with giving up 16%.
Thoughts anyone? Thanks in advance.
http://i49.tinypic.com/6eje5s.jpg
(slow loading today)
April 25th, 2012 at 4:32 pm
#113,
Slava,
That is why I asked how the number was arrived at. It is a little confusing to me.
#105,
gmsa,
I agree with you 100% on Joe Terranova on CNBC. He totally misses on his analysis, especially on $WTIC. I heard him constantly tell us that oil will reach $120.00 to $125.00, since January.
April 25th, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Slava,
Slava says “If hgu were to fall to $1.76 from this level than all major gold producers would have to go out of business.”
All those hoarders will become the suppliers along with the etf GLD as well. Why do you want to mine then?
Did you hear about the GOOG’s exec. and James Cameron launching some venture together to mine gold & other PM along with water & hydrogen from asteroids close to the earth?
So sell all your gold NOW!
just kidding…
April 25th, 2012 at 4:36 pm
gmsa, when is your birthday? (or zodiac sign)
April 25th, 2012 at 4:40 pm
NTR
As I was browsing through various TV channels last night I stumbled upon some real estate show.. so basically what I “gambled” on HGU could have purchased a decent house in some sunny parts of the USA… and I live in a 780 sq. ft rental condo. It was a bit of an eye opener and a confirmation that I might have gone crazy. Anyways, enough on that – I’m starting to sound like a broken record. Puts things in perspective.
April 25th, 2012 at 4:41 pm
gmsa, “All those hoarders will become the suppliers “… lol.. you are very funny.
April 25th, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Hi mick, you always have great things to contribute to the conversation. You’ve been missed! What’s new in North Van? Let me guess? Rain and more rain..
April 25th, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Hi Slava. Re #115, that’s why you should go on vacation with another Michael!
Gold stocks were very encouraging today, so it could be the beginning of the upturn.
Today nonetheless was very frustrating for me (should have, would have could have). I should have held on to both Sprint and Tempur and would have sold this morning, and could have bought HZU around $5.40. And my Molson’s started off well and dropped throughout the day. I’m going for a beer!
April 25th, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Slava,
I would really like to know what you do for a living. You do seem as though you have a great deal of time for trading during the day. Also, I am sure that your income is a generous amount.
April 25th, 2012 at 4:48 pm
NTR
Michael, re “that’s why you should go on vacation with another Michael”.. is this an invitation? I’m in! Perhaps you can teach me TA during our travels
April 25th, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Hi Slava. There are far better TA teachers on this board. I still maintain that I know nothing! But when you end up with a profit on HGU, I can show you how to buy some AZ real estate.
April 25th, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Slava
NTR
I like you too, thanks.
Now how did you know it would be raining in Nvan? You must have spent some time here.
April 25th, 2012 at 5:22 pm
gmsa,
“Natural gas prices surged today, as shorts covered their positions after prices failed to break below the $1.90 level over the past week. Prices were last trading higher by $0.09, or 4.76 percent, to $2.07/mmbtu.
The funds appear unwilling to press the short side of this market at sub-$2 levels, said Jim Ritterbusch, head of trading advisor Ritterbusch and Associates.”
I wouldn’t touch HNU with a 10 ft pole. I have seen several comms hug the bottom over a period of years – everybody thinks that it’s a bargain – well.. it can get to be a better bargain. How about 1.00 – 1.50? I need confirmation before I even think of getting interested. There is such an oversupply – storage is getting close to the tipping point. Flaring has been so extensive that producers have been forced to cap it. Rig counts are way down – but not down far enough yet.
Mt trader buddy is waiting for the 50 ema bounce again – thinks that he has one more kick at the can before it goes into suspension.
But, a number of producers are applying for licences to ship LNG to Asia and Europe where price is almost 4 X higher. That will take a few years yet. The only hope as far as I can see.
Best!
April 25th, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Ana
When looking at a sector you have two choices either the sector,
EX for gold its $gold, banks $bank or the none levered etf such as gld or xlf is the chart to look for
April 25th, 2012 at 5:41 pm
# 100 Tawny
Find out what is “contango” on leveraged ETFs.
http://investorjunkie.com/11698/etf-contango/
April 25th, 2012 at 5:45 pm
# 111- Ana….
“A Point and Figure chart is a study of pure price movement in that time is not taken into consideration while plotting the price action. Since only price changes are recorded, if no price change occurs then the chart is left untouched. A Point and Figure chart is also called a “P&F Chart.”"
http://support.stockcharts.com/forums/30077/entries/21293
April 25th, 2012 at 5:48 pm
# 113-Slava
I’ve seen Gold at $ 250 an oz., so anything is possible….
April 25th, 2012 at 5:52 pm
There’s an old joke about the stock market:
Q: How do you make a small fortune in the stock market?
A: You start with a large one.
When trading with large amounts a tight STOP and constant monitoring is required. I speak from experience here….lol…
April 25th, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Goldcorp results are below expectations.. well, expectations should have been revised downward based on the falling stock price. A year ago GG was at $55 and today it closed at $41. Still, “Excluding an impairment charge related to certain equity investments and other one-time items, first-quarter earnings rose to $404 million, or 50 cents a share, from a year-earlier profit of $392 million, or 49 cents.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/25/goldcorp-idUSL2E8FPJFR20120425?feedType=RSS&feedName=basicMaterialsSector&rpc=43
April 25th, 2012 at 6:01 pm
# 116 Irwin
I have owned IPL.UN for years… I was buying it aggressively in the single digits…
In my RRSP I have been taking profits during the past 6 months and redeploying the profits into other names, loosly as per Sector Rotation Model. I keep a 5% position in RRSP… forever. Once it gets beyond that 5% hold, I trim it down some.
It has a relatively low daily volume so stops are not really effective here so not advisable… often has a very wide bid/ask spread. I speak from experience….lol…
April 25th, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Canuck
I know, I know, re #`130. But , if and when one is on the right side of the trade, you still make way more money than a single ETF… that is a big IF, tho’. I have succeeded with these at times.
Re #133, very funny saying… but I bet you were not really lol. lol!
BTW, if you lost $250k at one time – you must by very well set for retireent by now.. with all your experience and those massive (but only 5% or less in each) Dividend Stocks in your retirement portfolios + your house. You are expecting to live a long time or have one helluv lot of fun on retirement! Whippee!
What do you think of entering into Energy-based divie stocks at this time. Thinking CPG or ???? CPG technicals look good to my inexperienced eye.
April 25th, 2012 at 6:21 pm
#131.
Canuck2004
Thank you for pointing this out to me Canuck2004. However, how was the number of $1.76 calculated?
What is your occupation?
April 25th, 2012 at 6:22 pm
I hope Goldcorp is not going to ruin this set up:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02158130151&a=241497573
April 25th, 2012 at 6:31 pm
Tawny,
Maybe it is time to begin to warm up to the oils.
I do not have CVE, but I have IMO.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IMO,CVE,SU,CNQ,XLE,OIH,WLL,CXO,GEOI,CRK,APC,COG,|C|V25
Look at them. Everything seem to be beginning to turn,
except the gassy ones, as in cog, apc, gassy stocks turn
could be just around the corner, but their charts are still
saying sell.
So yes, I took the bait a couple weeks ago on IMO. Stock only.
……………………….
re your #90 – equity clock for golds – looking at GG, it worked pretty
well in 2009 2010 2011 early months, feb – march – april – may – even june
But this year is not falling into the pattern. Just ugly.
Yes – gold stocks will turn around – but will HGU regain its pre-plunge
levels? 17 in nov, 16 in dec, 13 in feb?
These leveraged etf’s are strange creatures, look at HNU-t…. it is down
91% over the last year while XNG the gas index is down y-o-y just 10%
The same thing is shaping up for hgu …. down draft, then a 1 for 5 consolidation.
It has happened a few times with these leveraged products that do not go up.
Cantango & daily rebalancing just kill you. If I am not mistaken, and forgive me
if I am wrong, but you used to trade HNU, so you understand things that cometh not back.
April 25th, 2012 at 6:42 pm
$138.
I have saved this chart as well! This is very generous of Ron/BC to continue his commentary on his charts. This chart was Wayne’s birthday present, from Ron/BC, however I pirated, it!
If the RSI drops below 30, maybe sell it to buy back at a lower price.
That is the last of the advice…
April 25th, 2012 at 6:47 pm
#129.
tony,
What is this information in regard to? Would you please send more explanation, when you have time?
April 25th, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Canuck #135
Taking some off when it goes over 5% is a good strategy. IPL.UN is now 5% of my total liquid holdings; keeping it at that level would do away with having to make a decision.
It was a top pick on Market Call Tonight.
Thanks for the reply.
April 25th, 2012 at 7:23 pm
# 136 Tawny
RE: 130… I never said one can’t make money using leveraged ETFs, I use them all the time, but they are for SHORT TERM trading, not buy and hold for extented periods:
“Contango becomes more obvious when investing with leveraged ETFs. Leveraged ETFs are ETFs that are designed to magnify gains or losses compared to an index. So for example, if you invest in ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) it’s designed to give 2x return of the underlying S&P 500 index. The issue is this: Every day the indexing is reset since the ETF is futures based. Over time your returns do not match S&P 500 multiplied by two. Because of this, a leveraged ETF should only be used as short term (a few weeks) investment.”
And I said I lost 200k, not 250… but I was trading in the 7 figures on margin. Too much money at one time for trading, so these days keep it much smaller. I lost it over a short period of overtrading… I should have known better but at times one starts to think one is invincible….lol…beware of hubris…
April 25th, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Ana
this
comment on 129
This was about doing TA on leveraged etfs you can’t use those etfs because they are not reality 2x doesn’t actually give you that 2x exposure to a sector.
Berman and all other managers that trade ETF have mentionned this so often:
” as time goes by leveraged etf erode themselves faster then they can make money.” so doing a T.A analysis is like doing an analysis on something that jumped higher because it got taken out, TA don’t work anymore.
so if doing a TA analysis you either take the sector etf or commodity etf. or basically the commodity chart.
so you either take $gold or gld, but you can not expect to analyze on HGU.
April 25th, 2012 at 7:47 pm
This is one of the reasons why I love this forum so much – people are so candid and honest and not afraid to share both successes and failures.
April 25th, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Ana
this
comment on 129
This was about doing TA on leveraged etfs you can’t use those etfs because they are not reality 2x doesn’t actually give you that 2x exposure to a sector.
Berman and all other managers that trade ETF have mentionned this so often:
” as time goes by leveraged etf erode themselves faster then they can make money.” so doing a T.A analysis is like doing an analysis on something that jumped higher because it got taken out, TA don’t work anymore.
so if doing a TA analysis you either take the sector etf or commodity etf. or basically the commodity chart.
so you either take $gold or gld, but you can not expect to analyze on HGU.
April 25th, 2012 at 7:50 pm
Wayne,
Just popped in to quickly check the blog.
Thanks for showing the risk/rewards of the HNU trade.
I’m, in fact, on your side and completely agree with you.
But at #105,
I was actually asking on HND.TO – The inverse of HNU. Cause I’m bearish.
“Wayne,
Nat gas up 5+%, time to buy more HND.TO now?
thx.”
I took a position @46 and then it tanked afterwards (2 days ago I guess)
However, not a huge position for me so willing to buy some more with the same views that you expressed.
Where do you see the next good resistance level on this Nasty Gas? May be I will average down at that point on HND.
So when would you suggest I buy this HND.TO – the one you are (sill possibly, hopefully) long.
Between, that the link I posted on Iron Condor from that guy, he now says this: “As for the trade that I put on yesterday afternoon, ( AAPL ~$556 Sell Apr wkly 585/590 Call Spread and Sell the Apr wkly 525/520 Put Spread for Total of $2.50) this trade is in a tough spot, and I am likely to lose the 2.50 in premium that was at risk. The real problem with this trade is that volatility came in too much and I didn’t do a great job of adjusting my strikes, and the greater than expected implied move is what did me in.”
Glad I made some money on AAPL.
Thanks again.
April 25th, 2012 at 8:01 pm
COG’s results… not sure how the market will react, they missed on the revenue:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cabot-oil-gas-corporation-announces-first-quarter-profits-record-quarterly-production-volumes-2012-04-25
April 25th, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Ana,
Glad you noticed the same with Terranova.
A nice way to feast on to the innocent individual investor!
.
Slava,
I’m a Libran.
.
Tawny,
re.#107
agree with your view on nasty gas. It may go up some more from here but the question is for how long & how much..
April 25th, 2012 at 8:40 pm
KC
SPX
three things
1 yes price is above 18MA but 18MA crossed below 38MA
2 the 4 is still below 9MA,
3 we got what is called a W formation
wonder if this is not simply a a double top formation.
ok now if we buy here. stop loss just below 1333 would be less then 5%.
April 25th, 2012 at 8:57 pm
Hell everyone
You may want to give this a read on what the future holds for the stock market. I read Carl everyday.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.ca/
April 25th, 2012 at 9:05 pm
KC
AAPL
If you recall yesterday just like previous earnings they played it exactly the same why prior to earnings selling calls buying puts.
What happened both times HFs played us for fools.
I said yesterday it would hit 700. Today they were buying calls shy of 745 at this level they are selling the calls. and this is for both the month of May and June.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:13 pm
KC
mg.to and FTK
FTK for the time being if you can buy 500 shares you buy it at 11.80 and sell it at 12.45+ for 250$ per day and if you are the shorting type well you get my drift
if it breaks below 11.20 you get out. if it breaks above 14 you go long in.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:23 pm
KC
mg.to and FTK
FTK for the time being if you can buy 500 shares you buy it at 11.80 and sell it at 12.45+ for 250$ per day and if you are the shorting type well you get my drift
if it breaks below 11.20 you get out. if it breaks above 14 you go long
MG.to don’t like the chart 18/50 bear cross now if it holds above 40.40 then probably it could move higher but this 18/50 scares me in the short run. for it to come way lower and I read a title saying something about management but you have to look at it for yourself as I won’t do your readings
Its my rule I will give you the best I can in TA but you will have to do any reading for negative outlooks. I have enough of my companies.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:41 pm
Slava
Stop losses.
how can you say I don’t want to lose more then 300$ a day. some companies move by 2-3% if not more so you must put your stops accordingly.
putting a stop loss at 300$ if you buy on a 30$ is not the same as 300$ on a 60$ stock and how many shares you trade has big influence on this.
If price gaps lower its not a reason to hold it. Look at my bnp.to at 19.50 I was still at -4.2% I had a -6% stop loss, the next day it gaped lower and when I came to realize this I was -8.2% do you think I held on to this NO WAY JOSE, as it went all the way to 16.66 this would of been more then 20% loss for me.
So as BNS Says you are richer then you think WELL YAaha!!!
now knowing they issued shares at 28$ it would be a nice trade but is 16.6 a good resistance don’t know. as right now I don’t like the indicators.
I think I heard the niew issue was for them to pay their dividend so I think I will pass on this one.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:51 pm
Slava
COG
it has been having a hard time breaking and staying above the 18MA if this one really wants to perform it knows what to do.
did you read what I wrote to you yesterday? to sell it before 10 you didn’t get the max but you got more then I gave it.
and look at how today it closed the last 10min more selling then buying yesterday total opposite the last 20 it was all buying.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:51 pm
tony, I meant when I daytrade on margin.. let’s say I decide to buy 1,000 shares of GMCR for a day trade.. Obviously I try to time my purchase as well as I can – let’s say I buy 1,000 shares at $45.16 as I determine this to be a good entry point on that particular day. I put a stop loss at $44.84 immediately after purchase. If the stock starts moving up right after purchase I would move my stop loss accordingly to protect some profit, in the meantime I may be entering another trade (like pcln or fm.to, etc.). I know this may be a bit backwards but it seems to work for me. This way I know that my loss on that day on gmcr will not be more than $300.
Sometimes I hold overnight but most times it would be a smaller $ position. I got stuck with fcx now for a few days since I didn’t execute according to this plan.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:54 pm
More on gold..
“Shorts Now Trapped & Gold Could Gap Up to $3,000
April 25, 2012, at 11:09 am
by Eric King in the category King World News | Print This Post | Email This Post
Click here to listen to the full audio interview on KingWorldNews.com…
Dear CIGAs,
On the heels of the disclosure that China will buy oil from Iran using gold, legendary trader and investor, Jim Sinclair, told King World News that the massive paper gold shorts are now trapped and may see gold gap up to $3,000 if a vacuum in the physical market develops. Sinclair described this event as “historic.” But first, here is what Sinclair had to say about the recent trading action in gold: “You have seen in the last month, a phenomena. If you have eyes in your head, you have to know when the gold banks enter into the gold market, offering more for sale than would be mined in the next five years, they are not in there to sell anything. They are in there to manipulate the price.”
Jim Sinclair continues:
“Well, we’ve seen some V-bottoms during daily operations, where they (manipulators) have forced gold (down) and it just snapped right back. There is no question, it is a matter of record, that multiple central banks around the world have been large buyers of a significant amount of gold in the last two months.
As the paper speculators attempt to manipulate the price lower, they have run into the physical buyer who won’t let the physical market follow the paper market. Who is giving gold a chance here? Who’s talking positively about gold, except a very few?
(Listening to Martin) Armstrong and financial TV, you would imagine that gold didn’t have a chance. Yet every time the manipulators come in to reduce the price they are running into significant physical buying….
More…”
April 25th, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Slava
OK so you it didn’t work out as predicted it gapped below.
but if you are playing for 300$ and you lose 500$ because of the gap.
this is what I would tell you, get out of the trade if it decides to move back up after you decided to sell you can always get back in with new stop loss a few pennies below where you sold it. so If you are in luck you price will come back and you loss will be 4 commissions and the price you got back in – where you got out. if it was only a short bounce well then your loss will be 4 commissions and the total downside you took.
now about your daytrades you can put 2-3 bet at a time and this is way to much for you as you have a full time job. and you can’t monitor all the trades while in meetings. and so forth.
1 in your case is more then enough.
and if you know your company you know how it reacts during the day does it move 1-2 or 3-4% in a day and this is what you should be looking for.
if you are in the middle of the road. well you say ok wait to see what it wants to do. go up move in, go down short out.
I hope you do go to the option seminar in Vancouver. and the following day stockscores.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:11 pm
gmsa,
LOL. Yes, I saw the HND – but I got carried away about the slaughter in HNU!
He is looking to short it around the 50 EMA, which today was 2.26.
Ric – I read his blog daily. Funny that he has a pic of General Curtis LeMay (Old Iron Pants)as his profile.
Tony, Re # 146
Good post!
Several months ago I posted an analysis of why you can’t apply TA to derivatives. You need to track the underlying. Contango, backwardation and daily re-sets plays havoc with indicators. It’s an eroding asset – almost as bad as an option. The triple ETF’s are a nightmare. Don’t track HGU/HGD – track the TSX Gold Index! That’s what you should be focussing on when trading the gold majors.
But, I was wasting my time so I no longer mentioned it.
Berman has mentioned it often – but he keeps on getting the same calls from people who don’t understand what they’re doing. Like the call he got last Monday – the guy had been holding on to HNU for almost a year!!!
April 25th, 2012 at 10:12 pm
“… and may see gold gap up to $3,000 if a vacuum
in the physical market develops.” ~from #158
Can you imagine if that happened?
Note to self: never short anything PM (not that I ever short anyway)
Like Peter G says, “All the surprises will be to the upside”.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:17 pm
Slava
gold
gold has bumped its head 3 times against the 100MA and this MA is moving south so unless it can open and close above this level this is a no no,and even there its still a no,no
WZR.V look at its support and look where its going to the sky not the dump.
gold is going to the dump. so unless you get both price above 100MA and 100MA going north this is not a good trade.
now I know some will mention the 150MA Ron/BC said this was its daily support.
well 150MA is also headed south so not again not a good trade.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:31 pm
tony, perhaps gold is trying to complete inverse head and shoulder formation?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p46960742187
April 25th, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Slava,
John ING has the same target on Gold – $ 3,000.00 for somwhat different reasons, although he made a good case that it has morphed into a currency. Central bank purchases, which have been going on for several months now, is one good indicator. A few years ago, they were net sellers. Then India bought several tons last year at $1,700.00 which put a floor in gold at the time.
Interbank lending has been slowly grinding to a halt – and it is rumored that exchanges are taking place in bullion – not currency. Governments are settling debts in bullion based transactions – India and China are reported to be buying Iranian Oil with their massive bullion reserves.
Towards the end of this year the USD has a gazzillion dollars worth of debt to roll over. They are already starting to worry about it. A rating agency is holding off a downgrading of US debt – probably until after the election. But if there is another financial crisis like the one that occurred last August, all bets are off. There are a number of critical events that could develop into the perfect storm – all to the benefit of gold.
It’s not just the inflation factor that has investors concerned. It’s the massive world wide debt load, led by the USA that really gives them nightmares.The only “asset” that still holds value is gold.
The amount of debt is truly staggering, and I for one am convinced that it will never be repaid. It’s like paying rent on a house that has already burned to the ground. Massive devaluation, and hyper inflation is inevitable, unless we can come up with a new economic model. Time is running out.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Man I must be hallucinating
I tought I saw Lin asking me for my email adress and can’t see it anymore.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Tony
You did, I wonder if our friend is back as that comment has been deleted.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Mick
thx for the heads up.
April 25th, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Mick
thx for the heads up.
I had been having problems all evening on ths site.
with internal DB errors.
April 25th, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Slava,
Heard a new song tonight.
It was sung by, wait for it….. “Benny and the Inkjets”
Re: H/S pattern in gold. Here’s a post from my guru.
http://peterlbrandt.com/
April 25th, 2012 at 11:14 pm
#164 Wayne
You are a ray of sunshine…wow….lol
April 25th, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Tony
I have had the same issue.
April 25th, 2012 at 11:50 pm
Canuck2004,
I had a long conversation with a banker friend of mine tonight. He works for J.P. Morgan – one of the international desks. He tells me that he has never seen it so gloomy and that events in Euroland are far worse than what’s being reported. We’re not getting all the facts (if that’s not new) and that they are seriously concerned about the French election. If Snarky loses – all bets are off. Britain’s recession was on their radar a couple of months ago and they were already taking steps to protect themselves from further fallout. There are signs that Germany is stumbling and are getting pissed off by all the financial support they have been asked (demanded) to provide to support their lazy cousins to the south. Refugees from Greece, Hungary and other eastern european countries are flooding into France and Germany looking for jobs.
My buddy just has a couple of years before retirement – and is seriously considering getting out now. Banking is out of control. They don’t trust each other and are not lending as easily as they did a year ago. He told me that he expects the Euro to collapse – the costs of keeping it together are becoming insurmountable.
Makes you want to pour another Whisky!!
April 26th, 2012 at 12:01 am
Wayne, you’re scaring me! All those damn bankers ruining the world. At least no one can blame us!
April 26th, 2012 at 1:22 am
#146.
tony,
Thank you for reminding me about this, I understand this concept. When trading HOD and HOU, I always refer to $WTIC.
I was merely responding to the P & F chart on #77 and wondering how they arrived at 1.76.
I am a bit confused over the market direction at the moment. Doug Kass is in a full, long position at the moment.
However, most indexes are completing a head and shoulder patters, as shown on Equity Clock. All of the focus was on Apple today and the fact that the UK is now officially back into recession was barely recognized.