ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Monday April 30th 2012
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 3 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news that Spain has entered into a double dip recession. In addition, Standard and Poor’s downgraded 16 Spanish banks due to their holdings of Spanish sovereign debt.
Index futures moved lower following release of economic data at 8:30 AM EDT. Consumer Spending slowed in March. Consensus was an increase of 0.5% versus a gain of 0.8% in February. Actual was a gain of 0.3%. March Consumer Income was higher than expected. Consensus was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in February. Actual was a gain of 0.4%.
Canada’s economy surprisingly slowed in February. Consensus for month-over-month GDP was a gain of 0.1%. Actual was a decline of 0.2%. Consensus for year-over-year GDP was a gain of 2.1%. Actual was 1.6%. The Canadian Dollar weakened on the news.
Sunoco has agreed to a takeover by Energy Transfer Partners at $50.13 per share. Value of the offer is $5.3 billion. Sunoco gained $8.34 to $49.25.
Procter & Gamble is expected to open lower after Oppenheimer downgraded the stock from Outperform to Perform.
TransCanada is expected to open lower after Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce downgraded the stock from Outperform.
Kraft added $0.35 to $39.75 after JP Morgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight. Target is $45.
Nokia is expected to open lower after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Sector Perform. Target was reduced from $7 to $5.
Technical Watch
Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE:KFT) – $39.75 added 0.9% after JP Morgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight. Target price is $45. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock closed at an all-time high on Friday. Support is at $36.75. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive in mid-March. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG) – $64.25 is expected to open lower after Oppenheimer downgraded the stock from Outperform to Perform. The stock has a deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock fell below its 20 and 50 day moving averages on higher than average volume on Friday after the company lowered guidance for fiscal 2012 ending June. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and rolling over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since last October. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to support at $62.04.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image002117.png "clip_image002[1]")
Nokia Corp. (NYSE:NOK) – $3.67 is expected to open lower after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Sector Perform. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the end of October. Better opportunities are available elsewhere.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image003116.png "clip_image003[1]")
Economic News This Week
March Personal Income to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in February. March Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.8% in February.
February Canadian GDP to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.2% in January.
April Chicago PMI to be released at 9:45 AM EDT on Monday is expected to slip to 60.0 from 62.2 in March.
April ISM to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to slip to 53.0 from 53.4 in March.
March Construction Spending to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.5% versus a 1.1% decline in February.
The April ADP private employment report to be released at 8:15 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to fall to 170,000 from 209,000 in March.
March Factory Orders to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to fall 1.8% versus a gain of 1.3% in February.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to fall to 375,000 from 388,000 last week.
First Quarter Productivity to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to decline 0.6% versus a 0.9% gain in the fourth quarter.
April ISM Services to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 55.5 from 56.0 in March.
April Non-farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 162,000 from 120,000 in March. Private Payrolls are expected to increase to 165,000 from 121,000 in March. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.2%. Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.2% versus at gain of 0.2% in March.
Earnings News This Week
Equity Trends
The S&P 500 Index gained 24.83 points (1.80%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 1,357.38 and resistance is at 1,422.38. The Index remains below its intermediate uptrend line. The Index moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above its 50 day moving average increased last week from 50.20% to 60.20%. Percent has returned to an intermediate overbought level.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above its 200 day moving average increased last week from 80.20% to 81.60%. Percent remains intermediate overbought and in an intermediate downtrend.
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) increased last week from 1.91 to (290/144=) 2.01. The ratio is intermediate overbought and continues an intermediate downtrend.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks slipped last week from 74.40% to 71.00% and remained below its 15 day moving average. The Index continues to trend down from an intermediate overbought level.
The Up/Down ratio for TSX Composite stocks slipped last week from 0.99 to (113/118=) 0.96. The ratio continues in an intermediate downtrend.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks slipped last week from 55.24% to 54.84% and remained below its 15 day moving average. The Index continues to trend down from an intermediate overbought level.
The TSX Composite Index gained 89.97 points (0.74%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. The modified head and shoulders pattern remains intact. The Index has returned to the bottom of its pattern. Support is at 11,868.97 and resistance is at 12,788.63. The Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving average, but moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week from 35.08% to 43.95%.
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above its 200 day moving average increased last week from 47.58% to 48.39%. Percent remains in an intermediate downtrend.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 199.05 points (1.53%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Average remains below its intermediate uptrend line. Support is at 12,710.56 and resistance is at 13,297.11. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks was unchanged last week at 83.33% and remained below its 15 day moving average. Percent continues to trend down from an intermediate overbought level.
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks slipped last week from 61.05% to 60.10%. The Index continues to trend down from an intermediate overbought level.
The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 68.75 points (2.29%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Index remains below its intermediate uptrend line. Support is forming at 2,946.04 and resistance is at 3,134.17. The Index moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages on Thursday. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned negative.
The Russell 2000 Index gained 21.32 points (2.65%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. The Index remains below its intermediate uptrend line. Support is at 783.56 and resistance is at 847.92. The Index moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from negative.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 33.14 points (0.63%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. Support is at 5,029.41 and resistance is at 5,390.11. The Average moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages on Friday. Short term momentum indicators remains slightly overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is neutral.
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index slipped 11.02 points (0.25%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 4,234.44 and resistance is at 4,472.20. The Index remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
The Nikkei Average fell another 40.47 points (0.42%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support has formed at 9,388.14 and resistance is at 10,255.15. The Average trades above its 200 day moving average but remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Seasonal influences are about to turn negative.
The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 10.54 points (0.44%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Intermediate support is at 2,242.34 and resistance is at 2,478.38. The Index remains above its 20 and 50 day moving averages, but remains below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
The London FT Index added 4.96 points (0.09%), the Frankfurt DAX Index improved 51.20 points (0.76%) and the Paris CAC Index gained 77.69 points (2.44%) last week.
The Athens Index fell 18.75 points (2.62%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Intermediate support is at 621.71 and resistance is at 847.63. The Index continues to trade below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but continue to trend down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar fell another 0.85 last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 78.10 and resistance is at 81.78. The Index fell below its 20 and 50 day moving averages last week, but remains above its 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Stochastics already are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.
The Euro gained 0.33 last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 126.24 and resistance is at 134.86. The Euro moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages, but remains below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
The Canadian Dollar gained 1.17 cents U.S. last week. Its intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above resistance at 101.62. The Canuck Buck remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher and are overbought. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. ‘Tis the season for the Canadian Dollar to move higher!
The Japanese Yen added 2.04 last week. Intermediate trend is down. Intermediate support is at 118.93 and resistance is at 131.52. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. The Yen moved above its 50 day moving average last week.
Commodities
The CRB Index added 4.31 points (1.43%) last week thanks mainly to weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Intermediate trend is up. Intermediate support is at 293.50 and resistance is at 326.02. The Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving average, but moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels.
Gasoline added $0.02 per gallon (0.64%) last week following another decline in inventories. Intermediate trend is up. Resistance is at 3.428. Gasoline remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages, but above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and may be showing early signs of bottoming.
Crude Oil gained another $0.63 to 104.59 (0.61%) per barrel. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $100.68 and resistance is at $110.55. Crude remains above its 20 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index continues to show early signs of turning positive. Seasonal influences remain positive.
Natural Gas gained $0.26 (13.47%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is forming at $1.902. Gas moved above its 20 day moving average last week. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from deeply oversold levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from negative.
The TSX Energy Index added another 8.58 points (3.41%) last week. It remains below its 50 and 200 day moving average, but moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index has turned positive. Momentum indicators are trending higher.
Philadelphia Oil Services added 3.76 points (1.63%) last week. The Index moved above its 20 and 200 day moving averages. Momentum indicators are trending higher.
Gold added $19.80 per ounce (1.21%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is forming at $1,613.00 and resistance is at $1,792.70. Gold remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages, but moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 remains neutral.
The AMEX Gold Bug Index added 7.57 points (1.71%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to gold remains negative. Moved above its 20 day MA on Friday.
The TSX Gold Index added 1.86 points (0.60%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. The Index remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to gold remains negative.
Silver slipped $0.41(1.29%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $26.15 and resistance is at $37.58. Silver continues to trade below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to gold remains negative. Short term momentum indicators remain neutral.
Platinum slipped $3.70 per ounce (0.23%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. Support is at $1,347.60 and resistance is at $1,739.00. Platinum remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and showing early signs of bottoming. Strength relative to gold remains negative.
Copper added another $0.15 (4.08%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is forming at $3.57 and resistance is at $3.99. Copper moved above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are short term overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is changing from negative.
The TSX Metals and Mining Index added 0.19 (0.02%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is forming at 992.24 and resistance is at 1,258.22. The Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages, but above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trying to bottom. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index recently turned from negative to neutral.
Lumber gained $9.57 (3.47%) last week and closed just above resistance at $284.24 on Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.
The Grain ETN added $1.68 (3.63%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $44.62 and resistance is at $48.05. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.
The Agriculture ETF added $0.69 (1.33%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $50.20 and resistance is at $53.89. The ETF moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Interest Rates
The yield on ten year Treasuries slipped another 0.037 last week. Yield remains in a nine month trading range between 1.696% and 2.407% compliments of Operation Twist. Short term momentum indicators are intermediate oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.
Conversely, the long term Treasury ETF added another $0.22 (0.19%) last week.
Other Issues
The VIX Index fell 1.12 (6.42%) last week. Support is at 13.66 and resistance is at 21.06. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. The Index fell below its 20 and 50 day moving averages last week.
First quarter earnings reports continue to pour in. Approximately 60% of S&P 500 companies have reported to date. About 75% of reporting companies have exceeded consensus earnings estimates. However, unless companies reported blowout earnings, response to reports in most cases was weakness (Sell on news). Most of the 40 S&P 500 stocks that broke support levels last week were stocks that weakened following release of quarterly results. The focus this week for reporting companies is on the energy sector.
Economic focus this week is on the employment report on Friday. Most economic reports (including the employment report) are expected to continue to show a slowdown in growth.
Intermediate technical indicators remain overbought. Many U.S. equity indices and sector indices are testing highs set on or about April 2nd. One sector (Consumer Discretionary) managed to reach a new high on Friday. Short term indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
Macro events will continue to impact equity markets this week. Events outside North America that could influence equity markets this week include China’s PMI on Tuesday, Eurozone (27 countries) meeting on Wednesday to consider revised capital requirement rules, Germany’s PMI on Wednesday, Eurozone PMI on Wednesday, European Central Bank interest rate announcement on Thursday and Greece and French elections on Sunday.
Cash on the sidelines remains substantial. Corporate America is unlikely to commit major cash balances until the next U.S. president becomes apparent.
Seasonal influences tend to peak at this time of year. On average during the past 61 years, the S&P 500 Index has peaked on May 5th. Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide notes, “Overall, investors at the beginning of the month should consider using the three R’s: Reduce equities, Reduce beta and Reallocate into seasonally strong sectors”. Average performance of broadly based equity indices during the past 10 May’s is as follows:
Best performing sectors during the past 20 May’s were Consumer Staples, Financials and Health Care. Worst performing sectors were Telecom and Utilities. Best performing sub-sectors during the past 20 May’s Gold equities, Agriculture and Banks. Worst performing sub-sectors were Airlines, Semiconductors and Auto & Components.
Other 10 year average performance data:
The Bottom Line
The transition stage from the strong season for equity markets (October to May) has ended earlier than usual this year. The period of random equity market performance from May to October started three weeks ago. During U.S. Presidential election years, equity markets have a history of moving lower until at least the end of May and frequently to the end of June. Preferred strategy is to reduce equity positions on short term strength.
Tom Rogers’ Weekly Elliott Wave Blog
Following is a link:
http://www.tomrogers.net/signpost.htm
ETF News
The latest weekly update on ETFs in Canada to April 27th is available at
http://www.etfinsight.ca/insight/twtw/twtw.php
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Nikkei 225 USD Futures (NK) Seasonal Chart
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Join acclaimed market timing expert Mark Leibovit as he demonstrates his best-selling MetaStock Add-on: "Leibovit Volume Reversal ToolKit" Leibovit Volume Reversal ToolKit Monday, April 30, 2012 What is the Leibovit Volume Reversal ToolKit? The VR has performed consistently well for over thirty years and MetaStock is the first software company to offer a compatible VR plug-in ‘Expert’. Three ‘Experts’ are being introduced: 1) The Leibovit VR Sequential Expert; 2) The Leibovit VR Directional Expert; and 3) The Leibovit VR 2-Day Expert. The Leibovit Volume Reversal Experts are versatile and can be used across markets for trend analysis, short, mid, and longer term trading and overall broad market timing. About Mark Leibovit Mr. Leibovit was a member of the Chicago Board Options Exchange where he became a Market Maker in 1976. In 1979 he served as research director for Freehling & Co. and later as technical research director for Rodman & Renshaw. Mr. Leibovit continues to provide technical research and consulting services to institutional fund managers and professional traders through www.vrstrategic.com. Mark Leibovit is the author of the Traders Book of Volume, McGraw Hill (2011 release) and is currently authoring a book on his proprietary Volume Reversal ™ methodology ( 2012 release.) Timer Digest named Mark Leibovit "Timer of the Year" for 2006. In 2010 he was named the #2 Market Timer and the #2 Gold Timer for the ten-year period ending 12/31/09. He holds a CIMA and AIF designation, is a member of the Market Technicians Association and the CFA Institute. He also holds a M.Ed and B.S. from the University of Florida. This webinar is one in a series devoted to MetaStock add-ons given by their creators. View the entire schedule and download a free Add-on Catalog. |
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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 27th 2012
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: KFT, NOK, PG
April 30th, 2012 at 8:11 am
Traders,
All those trading SPXU, ZSL, – there will be a 5:1 reverse split taking place on May 11. Check the page – there are quite a few splits.
Here’s the page:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/proshares-announces-etf-share-splits-123000900.html
April 30th, 2012 at 9:24 am
Wayne,
Thanks for that update. I currently hold SPXU. I guess its best to get rid of it sooner than then 11th ?
KC
April 30th, 2012 at 9:25 am
Wayne
Thank you for post #1. Does this require any action if one owns any of those – i.e. does it create any “real” reaction?
April 30th, 2012 at 9:49 am
KC,
It all depends on your view of the SnP.
Tawny,
Don’t forget – this is a derivative. Derivative splits are determined by volatility factors. A stock split usually produces a reaction that can be detrimental to your position – ie. reverse splits usually mean bad news, all else being equal. In terms of a derivative – the greater the leverage – the more frequently the split. Happens all the time – HNU for example.
April 30th, 2012 at 9:57 am
Good morning all, VXX is picking up, I bought hvu around $3.54 for a daytrade.
April 30th, 2012 at 10:00 am
Wow.. Apple is taking another hit today. I’m staying on the sidelines. It’s not a good sign when a market leader like Apple is breaking down like that after posting amazing results.
April 30th, 2012 at 10:02 am
Bought EBAY Apr 24th @ $39.93; just got out at $41.75.
April 30th, 2012 at 10:14 am
CJ
Good for you – a winner!
Please be cautious on any new longs
April 30th, 2012 at 10:23 am
Tawney #8
I don’t do shorts so longs it is, but so far today it looks like more spreading red ink
trying to find a bear good for a day trade.
Enjoy your coffee break with Martine!!
April 30th, 2012 at 10:30 am
RGR at +4% again.. very strong stock.
April 30th, 2012 at 10:40 am
CJ
Cash is a position
Met with Martine on Saturday – she is real, not just a virtual entity!
April 30th, 2012 at 10:41 am
Sturn Ruger (RGR) has had a nice run. It reports on Wednesday. Should I sell before it reports? Allot of high profile stocks have pulled back after reporting.
April 30th, 2012 at 11:05 am
Ken, I’m going to sell prior (probably today) .. too bad I don’t have very many shares.
April 30th, 2012 at 11:29 am
Slava; RGR up 4% on a market down day. Wonder if news leaked on great earnings again? I am inclined to hold. Mark identified this one as a keeper a long time ago.
April 30th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Ken/AB
Mark? R U ref. to Mark Leibovitt? ARe you a subscriber to him in some way?
Thanks.
April 30th, 2012 at 11:40 am
Tawny; I do subscribe to Leibovitt’s platinum service.
April 30th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Slava; Here is a junior to DYOD – GWY – venture exchange
April 30th, 2012 at 11:53 am
Ken/AB
Thanks for replying – have you found this subscrip. worthwhile? Thanks in advance
April 30th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Hi Eve,
I am thinking of buying DOG and SH short ETF and was wondering your outlook on both. Here are both charts for”SH”: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SH&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p45182898682 and http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DOG&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p82922233233 for DOG.
Happy Trading, Ania
April 30th, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Nibbling at WPRT now – thanks Eve – do you think it will go to the top Keltner?
April 30th, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Is anyone buying Apple with a stop loss? I’m wondering if it will rebound in the afternoon.. but I suppose it’s best to add money to those stock which are going up, not down, right mick/inv?
April 30th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Slava: What’s your thoughts on shorting Linked-In? It is trading at 950 P/E. Results are out on Thursday.
April 30th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Slava
AAPL has a slight downward bias on the daily chart and looks like it might rollover on the weekly chart, so I would wait before entering a trade. If you do decide to buy or even short, at least have a stop in place in case it does not do what you are expecting.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p85470123536&a=265857798
April 30th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Slava
At times, after the European markets close, the N.A. markets go up… I am watching to see if this happens.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Ray, I shorted last Thursday and a bit more on Friday, had a chance to cover at a small profit today when it dipped below $107.. didn’t (!) .. smth is currently happening with this stock, too bullish. Perhaps it’s the Amazon factor or the upcoming Facebook IPO. LNKD will probably exceed earnings expectations, it’s prudent to stay on the sidelines (unless it’s a day trade and you can time it well). I just want to get out at a minimal loss for now.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
mick, thank you, as usual. What are your thoughts on GMCR if you have a minute?
April 30th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Sold hvu for now..
April 30th, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Thoughts on Ford and MSFT for the longer-term? Anyone owns/plannig to buy? Thanks.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:16 pm
I’ve had a bit of time to explore the new Scotia Itrade website and it’s actually not too bad..
April 30th, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Slava
GMCR is still in a downward trend, so would stay away from it as an investment. It may have hit it’s low for the time being and I’m sure you could trade it successfully.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GMCR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p99069127019&a=264317222
April 30th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Hope someone jumped on COG in past few days – reaching for the top again!
April 30th, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Ken, as for RGR I think it may be “sell on the news”.. it’s had a huge run and everyone knows how super busy they are this year, but since markets are forward looking – what will happen to the company in 2013? Can they continue selling the guns, etc. at the same rate or higher as in 2012? Also, it’s not the type of product which people replace frequently and their target market is limited because of regulations, etc.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
mick – you and I would make a great team. You are very responsible when it comes to investing and I’m .. well, you know
the risk taker.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Gold stocks are crawling back up..
April 30th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Also, when it comes to GMCR, I believe the short position on this stock is smth like 21% of oustanding shares. Company is reporting earnings on May 2nd after close.. so I would expect some short-covering before then.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Slava
It is like the rabbit and the hare, slow and steady wins the race in my view.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
mick, you are right.. I’m feeling pretty exhausted. Every night I now wake up at 3 a.m. and check on European and Asian markets and commodity prices – I think I’m losing my mind. My body and mind are feeling the pressure. Waiting for HGU to go up and then I need to take a break before I break myself.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:49 pm
I think being disciplined is the MOST important thing when it comes to trading.. and I lack it. I can make 10 transactions, make $4k and then lose it on one bad position. Also, as that one bad position is going against me, I start feeling frozen and not paying attention to other positions which creates more problems.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Slava
Well I am sure you don’t get much sleep when Michael is around so you might as well take a break for a bit and catch the overseas news and plan for the day.
I hope things work out with HGU, although I do not see that going up much myself, the times that it has broken the 20ma, it just turns around and goes back down. it is not a ‘hold’ type of security.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:51 pm
CNBC is doing a good job bashing Apple all day.. they must be making money off that.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
NTR
mick.. lol.. Michael has his own place and we see each other perhaps 2-3 days/nighs per week, weekends mostly. He was away this past weekend which worked out well since I was feeling particularly stressed out. It’s hard to fake a good mood around him, he picks up on the slightest variations of my moods.
April 30th, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Margin Account update:
Doubled up on ERF this morning as chart improving… raised stop. Still holding MFC and SLF, doing well with those. Still holding TGA.
RRSP:
Friday and today, cut my 8% position on Dundee REIT to 5% as position too large from recent merger, nothing wrong with the name just taking profits. Also took 1% out of ENF, same story there. Decided to sell off TGA and book profits, as I want to rebalance. Yield getting too low on all of these and I can get better yield with that new cash.
Added to Valener VNR, topped up my position to 5%. Good yield, low risk, slim chance of getting real good cap gains though, but steady as a rock in portfolio. Tends to trade between 13 and 16… so not real cheap, but not expensive today… mid range. Good enough for me.
On Friday topped up my US Junk Bonds ETFs to 2.5% each, CHB (no fees at Scotia) and XHY.
Also topped up FIE ETF (no fees at Scotia) to 2.5% as it is financials and replaces in part the REITs I sold, with a basket of same, plus similar Financial sector weights, at a better yield. We’ll see how this ETF fares over time. I think it’s fine as a position in the sector to add diversification to the account even though there’s overlap as some of the names in the ETF I also own individually. But there’s plenty in there that I would not own individually as beta too high, so an interesting choice.
Overall raising my yield in RRSP with these purchases. I still have some cash left and should be getting some dividend this week… so will add to another name.
Holding about 34 names and 3 ETFS in RRSP, that’s pretty close to the maximum for a yield account.
For cap gains an efficient portfolio should be 10 names min., 20 max.
Other than that, nothing to report except that we will be going to Victoria on Thursday for a week to look at property in Langford and Colwood and check out quality of services. I’m fine at this point of my life to live in a smaller community… and I like to be close to the ocean.
April 30th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
canuck, thanks for the portfolio update. Althought many don’t comment as much we all really appreciate the info. I need to change my RRSP to resemble yours since right now it’s a mess invested in juniors,etc.
Have a wonderful time on Vancouver island.. BC is such a beautiful place (I just don’t like the real estate prices plus the very frequent “free watering” as Ron/BC used to say). Perhaps you can visit him while you are there..
April 30th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Slava
re:#38
I think we have been suggesting to you that discipline is the key to successful trading for quite sometime. I hope it is finally taking root.
April 30th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Ray, as you probably know Whitney Tilson is short LNKD.. I have high regard for him. He made a lot of money shorting GMCR. The only thing is that these guys have VERY VERY deep pockets and don’t get margin calls. So at some point I’m sure LNKD will go down since it can’t possibly live up to its current valuation at least in the next two years or so.
April 30th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
mick, re #44, in my head yes.. but then there is some kind of a disconnet between my brain and my hand which needs to click on the appropriate buttons to get out of a losing position quickly as per plan. Perhaps what I should be doing is seeing a psychiatrist instead of watching the markets… lol
April 30th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Slava
Ask Wayne to ask Ron/BC to send you some Reiki for your brain, that should work.
April 30th, 2012 at 2:21 pm
mick, he already does that – for my migraines which originate in the brain..lol
April 30th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Hi Slava. I’ve been looking at Ford. It seems to want to go lower but it’s far away from the 4-day MA. Might be good for a day-or-two trade, but there’s a gap around $10.77 that could be closed.
In the meantime, I’m struggling with my taxes. I guess that I still have 12 hours!
April 30th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
I think we’ll see a bounce tomorrow in Apple shares.. On the 1st of the month new funds flow into stocks for 401k plans and given that Apple is ranked a “buy” by most brokerages we should hopefully see some upside action. Thoughts?
April 30th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Slava
#36 should have been tortoise and the hare, I guess my brain needs reiki also.
April 30th, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Canuck
I am just wondering why you would not hold Enerplus in RRSP for Yield? Hope you have a chance to reply…. I have a small purchase right now for that reason.
April 30th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
I wish I had the TA skills to interpret today’s behaviour in PCLN..
April 30th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Ray, pro-Linked in article, interesting read:
http://beta.fool.com/latimerburned/2012/04/30/what-if-they-are-right-about-linkedin/4074/?ticker=GOOG&source=eogyholnk0000001
April 30th, 2012 at 3:18 pm
#52- Tawny
ERF, I do hold it for yield in my RRSP….among others…I just have enough O&G for now and need to diversify… plus rotate more into financials, as per Sector Rotation Model.
ERF is a trade in my Margin account as it is extremely oversold, as are all the others in the sector.
April 30th, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Hi Slava. Today’s trading on PCLN (which I don’t follow) is indicating a spinning top. Candlestick theory (which is Eve is far better than me) would suggest that the upward trend is ending. I’d be reluctant to go long here because there may have been a double top today (and I can’t believe that this is a $38 billion market cap).
April 30th, 2012 at 3:26 pm
This can’t be good for Priceline:
http://arcres.com/Facebook-Travel-Bookings.cfm
April 30th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Slava,
This is for you from Ron.
Ron was “working on you” – here’s his remarks.
“And you can tell her I spent a lot of time on her for a few days and nights especially. For two nights I did Reikii on her and fell asleep with her so to speak,lol. So if she doesn’t feel “great all over” I’ll hang up my voodoo power and forget about it.”
Best!
April 30th, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Canuck re #55
Thank you for explaining… looks like a really good buy and great yield if O&G holds onto its new trend… Can I please ask, what guidelines do you use to set your STOPS?
April 30th, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Wayne, please pass my sincere thank you to Ron.. yes, I no longer feel physcial pain (just mental). As for “fell asleep with her so to speak” … lol is right! I hope he had a nice dream that night.
April 30th, 2012 at 3:46 pm
well, COG looks very overbought here short-term, I will initiate a short position.. should pull back a bit tomorrow.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COG&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p25225577553
April 30th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Slava
COG just went above R1 pivot point resistance, if this holds tomorrow, it could easily go above the 20,3 keltner. it is not overbought yet on the RSI. You might want to put a stop at the 20,3 keltner.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96762934888&a=263830533
April 30th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
mick, thank you. I sold COG way too early. So RSI of 64 is not overbought? I thought over 50 is considered overbought… it’s also far away from its 4-day ma and overbought on CCI 20.
April 30th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Slava
Overbought on the rsi is above 70. as long as you made money on it, that will work.
April 30th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
mick, this may sound stupid, but how do I chart those R1 points, etc. on stockcharts.com? Thank you. Off for lunch now but will be back soon.
April 30th, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Michael, thanks for PCLN. I’m short, lnkd also.
April 30th, 2012 at 4:09 pm
#59 Tawny
No stops on RRSP as the philosophy in there is forever hold… unless there’s a change, like rebalancing or a bad pick.
In Margin Account, I look for a support level and place my stop a few pennies below on an odd number. Usually just below the last low, or the average short term low… it’s an art, no fast rule. In trading usually tight stops as if it isn’t going my way, I get out ASAP.
April 30th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
tony Says:
April 29th, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Slava
hmu and heu VS VOLUME
…
Now looking at both of them I prefer HEU.to only because the energy space has been so depressed during its “seasonality period”
if you look at MACD H everyday since april 12th its been above 0(I think they have been accumulating)
look at SU, CNQ, BTE, ECA starting april 12 for most of them the Energy space looks quite interesting here.
if we can have a small pull back to around the 4MA on most of them it would be nice and a little lower would be even better.
I am not going to say buy everything or that everything is going north.
but the companies with the indicators that have been trending north either depressed or not will be headed higher. how high I can’t say for sure.
btw if you look at gmcr back on dec 23rd we have exactly the same pattern and currently repeating itself. will GMCR get back to 70$ can’t tell for sure but it is headed north.
Ok I am ahead of you Slava what will hgu.to do its not there yet probably in a few days, same goes for $gold, if you take a look at AEM it was almost there a if we didn’t have those few days where MACD H was below
This was the call to be in these oil and gas field.
I missed the whole thing this morning as I just got out of a meeting.
April 30th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Slava
Select ‘pivot points’ under the overlay section .
April 30th, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Slava
AAPL has been having a hard time with the 18MA
April 30th, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Canuck
SLF and MFC
Slf
since last monday the MACD H has been trading below 0 line.
MFC has been above.
I have mentionned this MACD H trend below 0 to slava on the oil sector late last night and people that bought in this morning have benefited from the advice.
April 30th, 2012 at 4:29 pm
gmsa,
I think I found a T-30 candle, take a look at NZ.v, thanks to Rol Lew’s link Friday’s TT. thanks Rol Lew.
So is this the real thing? I’m sure if it is you would like to be aware, let me know what you think.
Thanks,
DD
April 30th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Oh heres the link:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
April 30th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Wayne
Last year the did a reverse stock split on the Bull Leveraged etfs after the reverse split they rallied big time. (as if it was the end for the bear trend)
I know I had bought FAS at around 14$ and lost a bit and got out, I told my self after the rev-split it would go even lower and told myself I am not a sap that will be burnt twice well I totally missed the direction as it doubled since.
AIG had the same reaction went up.
April 30th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
DD
T-30
I must of missed this explanation what’s a T30 candle?
April 30th, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Tony,
It is a very rewarding candle ;, take a look at the explaination
http://www.scribd.com/doc/35469239/T-30-Chart-Pattern-for-Swin
April 30th, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Hi all,
NTR
Re-my wife’s T5 from td bank.
Well they did their investigation and found nothing. They told me it could be from my trading account from cibc blah blah blah as before.When I said can you write me a letter saying that you did investigating and there is no such account so I can forward it to Revenue Canada, manager showed me ‘middle finger’ as expected by Wayne or others here.So I called CRA and lady said that they will look into it.So the only way TD CANADATRUST will respond or reissue a new T5 with no interest earned is when Taxman call hopefully.If CRA don’t do much and keep onus on my wife to prove then I don’t know what to do as I been told to ‘go to hell’ by branch manager.
One thing I want to share is that I am pretty sure(99%) I found who that ‘dude’ on t5 is with my wife.It is the guy and her wife who live right opposite our house.They match both names on the T5 and they sold their farm 2 years ago and left money in bank(td bank).So Some frekn fat finger in the accounting screw it and added my wife’s SIN instead of that guys wife as our house and there house is only such as ”4020 and 4021 lost street”(Only one digit in the end separate our house no’s). When I told that to manager he said no , we can’t do anything about it, its not them. In other words “our accounting and branch girls can’t make an error and press ‘enter’ before checking upto the last digit of the house.”
HELP?
Kam
April 30th, 2012 at 4:44 pm
CJ
about afterhours trading afterhours there is a catch 4pm till 7 pm if memory serves me for the 7PM is when MFunds trade so they should push stock that didn’t report earnings higher as it mimics the days action.
in the morning the trading is mostly based on how it performs over seas. being in canada Cnd stocks are “closed off for trading ” If you look earnings come out the SU, BMOs and so on there is no trades in after hours.
now I think InteractiveBroker being a US company can grant you access to this but this is pure speculation from my part.
this is why if a company pops above the 4MA at the open because of the push retail investors don’t have access to on canadian companies you just wait for price to reach the 4MA
in after hours earnings a stock usually a whiplashes up and down.
sorry this is the best I can do
April 30th, 2012 at 4:52 pm
DD
the tail end thats what the t30 is all about
darn how often did I post tail ends being retested. if it fails you break through the support or resistance if not you go back up.
bac chart is from march 7th
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p59831395636&a=260204541
you can look at BIN.to chart
just to name a few.
April 30th, 2012 at 4:53 pm
look at etp chart flew +3% on the takeover of Sunoco. who gained 20%
April 30th, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Tony,
Yes, yes, I have been looking for one of these all weekend, I guess I didn’t really understand it until I read the explaination on the link I posted. I didn’t buy any b/c I saw this after the markets closed.
April 30th, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Kam,
This behaviour doesn’t surprise me one bit. I have a couple of my own “horror” stories dealing with incompetent and blatantly rude managers.
The only suggestion that I can make at this point is that if the CRA is unable to resolve this issue to your satisfaction – contact your lawyer who can demand an explanation from the bank to clear this up.
There is a TD bank ombudsman who handles complaints. It might be worth your time to contact them and explain the problem. I might contact him first before calling your lawyer. If you get no satisfaction – let him know that you are contacting your lawyer.
Of course the ultimate threat – contact a news reporter. They love this sort of BS.
Here’s the address of the Ombudsman.
http://www.td.com/to-our-customers/ombudsmans-office/ombudsman.jsp
Best of luck!
April 30th, 2012 at 5:19 pm
I know we generally don’t like to discuss junior mining companies on here but you may want to take a look at Belvedere resources (bel.v). Their net income for 2011 was $3.39 million while market cap is $18.22 million. Very undervalued.
April 30, 2012 15:53 ET
Belvedere Reports Financial and Operating Results for 2011
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(April 30, 2012) – Belvedere Resources Limited (TSX VENTURE:BEL) (“The Company”) is pleased to report financial and operating results for the year ending December 31, 2011.
David Pym (CEO) comments “Operations during 2011, have resulted in another positive year for Belvedere with the company generating a net income of 2.59 million euros. The overall cash position of the company has increased despite a 3.5 million euro investment in gold and nickel exploration, with over 20,000 metres of surface exploration drilling being completed during the year.”
Key Financial Points
2011 Full Year – (i) Operating Income of €4.02 million (CDN$ 5.28 million)
2011 Full Year – Revenues of €24.7 million (CDN$ 32.30 million)
2011 Full Year – Net income of €2.59 million (CDN$ 3.39 million)
Q1 Results – Net income of €1.44 million (CDN$ 1.88 million)
Q2 Results – Net loss of €0.05 million (CDN$ 0.07 million)
Q3 results – Net income of €0.55 million (CDN$ 0.72 million)
Q4 results – Net income of €0.64 million (CDN$ 0.84 million)
April 30th, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Kam,
NTR
With respect to the T-5 originated by TD, the bank has to provide the account number on the slip. When you write to the Ombudsman, please indicate that your wife has never received and you are not aware of any investment/bank account you may have with their institution. You are therefore requesting their assistance in order to be provided with the bank statements detailing the transactions (which they have)in question. Please also make sure you send a copy to (cc)CRA so this way they will know that you are making some efforts to get the situation clarified. Also, if the Bank is not providing its cooperation, the CRA will be fully aware of it and they will get involved too. This is very important that everything gets done in writing in order to leave a paper trail. It also shows your goodwill and willingness to resolve the situation.
I am a former banker too and, belive me, there are no good reason to be treated this way. You should make good progress this way with good perseverance. Good Luck!
April 30th, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Kam
I hear you,
1st off did you write a letter to your branch manager?
having to deal with contracts and so forth I have learned my lesson, as words are easily forgotten by the concerned party and you have no recourse against them, but written documents in court has more weight then you could ever imagine.
You already started the process by talking with no end result so now you give them a deadline not more then 10days, and you state that if you are not entirely satisfied you will take the necessary action to even close all of your accounts then when the delay is past you will have to go over them to the ombudsman. (Banks have to deal with costumers, and the loss of 1 customer may result in more then one as word to mouth will have a negative effect on them and it could expand the bank will not want this to happen)
but before you do this, call the CRA ask to have an agent to whom all correspondence will be forwarded.
and in 10days you will have I assure your case will be resolved. (oh and by the way you can state that you found them disrespectful).
April 30th, 2012 at 11:02 pm
DD
you have been looking for what all w-e long, a long trailing tail?
April 30th, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Tony,
Yep, not all weekend long but I was checking out different charts for different patterns. I have been reading up on chart patterns and trying to get used to the different ones I was reading about.
April 30th, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Tony,
Have you been checking on CMK, it made its move. I was busy Thursday and Friday so I missed out. I guess they had news today and looks like its on its way back up. Candles look good too!
April 30th, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Expect the payout of ERF to get slashed – unsustainable at 12%+.
April 30th, 2012 at 11:34 pm
gmsa,
Any idea why EXK and EDR.to spiked up today? I am happy my short did not go through last thursday. Is it still a good short at 9.20 area or do you see it heading up from here?
Thanks,
KC
April 30th, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Hi kam. As a former banker, many of the branch employees don’t really give a crap unless things are escalated, especially to a senior executive. So write a regional vp or the Group Head of Canadian Banking, and quote TD’s annual report: “Working hard to deliver legendary customer experiences”…and make them prove it!
April 30th, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Tony,
Could you please give me your TA on CHK-N ? Does it look it is ready for a bounce here?
KC
May 1st, 2012 at 12:05 am
DD
lets be honest
you asked me about cline mining on april 16th it opened at 1.01, and it droped to 81cents in less then 10 days thats -20% … be honest 80 cents was that not the fear factor that would have you trigger the sell button?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GMCR&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p92852936244&a=265937855
the thing is you find a good spot to enter look at the end of november again MACD H is moving sideways, but if you waited for the 9/18 confirmation you made 5$ compared to 10$ if you moved in at the low of the price range.
May 1st, 2012 at 12:12 am
Tony,
Yes I agree and the chart you sent me I see there was a perfect entry just like you advised, thats why I said I missed out. Here check it out the chart you sent me and exactly what you told me too look for.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
May 1st, 2012 at 12:14 am
Tony,
Sorry wrong link
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMK.TO&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p64301314146&a=264511938
May 1st, 2012 at 12:25 am
Tony & DD,
Just looking at a few gold charts and read the last couple of posts – in using Tony’s 9/18 cross and MACD H moving sideways – GLD looks to me looks like a good candidate – you thoughts?
Thanks
Deb
May 1st, 2012 at 12:32 am
KC
chk, as much as I like the company this one is lagging the sector(even if it moves 4% daily in the past few days) in momentum its been side trading so get in at 17.60 and have a tight stop below 18.10 for the time being until it takes flight.
May 1st, 2012 at 12:33 am
“Fat finger” mistake.
Call options on the Gold Trust (GLD) are actively traded after the metal erased early losses and GLD is now up 19 cents to $161.57. There’s talk of an erroneous trade in the gold futures market early today, in which a sale of 7500 gold futures was being attributed to a “fat finger” mistake. GLD opened at $160.49 per share and .6 percent below Friday’s close. It has since battled back to positive territory and options volume in the product is 147,000 calls and 24,000 puts through midday. The top trade is a morning buyer of 29,100 Sep 200 calls for 80 cents per contract. Another 9,000 traded for 80 cents on ISE and is an opening buyer, according to ISEE. 41,100 now Sep 200 calls on GLD traded against 35,584 in open interest. Separately, 18400 Dec 210 calls traded for $1.45 on ISE and was a closing buyer. A third noteworthy trade is a 15000-lot of Dec 190 calls for $2.78 on Philli when the market was $2.68 to $2.78. Overall, the flow seems bullish and possibly on the view that today’s fat finger mistake offered an opportunity to buy upside calls on GLD.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/543501-monday-options-recap
See also Kitco Daily Gold Charts;
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html
May 1st, 2012 at 12:41 am
Deb
GLD
No gld is not there yet plus price can’t get above 50MA this is never good sign.
Sorry but the gold sector is not there as of yet you could probably trade it gld between 158 and 161.
May 1st, 2012 at 12:48 am
Thanks Tony!
May 1st, 2012 at 12:49 am
slava
Lulu
if you have the time to read this lulu has been making lower highs and lower lows since april 5th.
May 1st, 2012 at 12:51 am
Good evening Tony, thank you for your posts addressed to me my dear friend. What you say about lulu is EXACTLY what Eve said about lulu today (in her email).
How was your day? Kids behaving themselves?
May 1st, 2012 at 12:53 am
Slava
CMG
cmg has been below 18MA so short unless it gets above 18MA then just get out.
LULU get out if it gets above 77$
May 1st, 2012 at 12:53 am
tony, I’ve been browsing through the economic calendar on forexpros and the picture is not pretty. Be it USA, South Korea, China, Canada, Australia, etc. – recent data is not looking too good. What are your thoughts on this? At some point the markest will start reflecting the reality but when?
http://www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
May 1st, 2012 at 12:54 am
“In 2011 LinkedIn had just over $500 million dollars in revenue and generated about $99 million in EBITDA and earnings of about $12 million”
Would you pay $11.11 BILLION for a business which gives you annual income of $12 million? Yes, it’s likely to grow in terms of subsribers, but what about making money for the shareholders? How fast would they need to grow the bottom line to “grow” into this insane valuation?
May 1st, 2012 at 12:57 am
tony, thanks for CMG.. hopefully I can close cog and lnkd short positions at a profit and then swtich to cmg short. Would be nice.
May 1st, 2012 at 1:03 am
Slava
don’t get any emails so I just post here for everyone interested.
May 1st, 2012 at 1:04 am
tony, I meant “great minds think alike” – that’s what I was referring to
May 1st, 2012 at 1:27 am
Slava
oh ok yes we do wonder if eve is the other side of me… the good me
spx…
Is the market going for a triple top or are we going to break through?
back in 2000 spx topped out at around 1553, in ’07 at 1576 and in ’12 at what level 1500?
now if you look at the monthly chart in
Mar 2001 High
Dec 2001 18/50 bear cross,
Sep 2002 we hit the low
Sep 2004 18/50 bull cross,
Oct 2007 we hit the high
Dec 2008 18/50 bear cross,
Mar 2009 we hit the low
Apr 2011 18/50 bull cross.
If market corrects we should see price plummet between 1288 and 1150
now on the bright side, we are currently in a bull run as it took more time to reach 1400 then it took to get to 667 since 2007
so where do we go from here.
May 1st, 2012 at 1:28 am
I am off to bed.
May 1st, 2012 at 1:41 am
Good night Tony..