ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Tuesday May 8th
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 6 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news that political parties in Greece have been unable to develop a coalition to control the Greek parliament.
Electronic Arts is down $0.62 to $14.51 despite an upgrade by Needham from Hold to Buy and a target of $22. The company reported lower than expected fourth quarter revenues and lowered guidance for the current fiscal year.
Wendy’s/Arby’s fell $0.12 to $4.75 after lower guidance for 2012.
OfficeMax fell $0.30 to $4.10 after reporting less than consensus first quarter earnings and after announcing store closures.
McDonald’s fell $2.41 to $93.10 after reporting lower than expected sales in April.
Technical Watch
Electronic Arts, Inc. (NYSE:EA) – $14.51 fell 4.1% despite an upgrade by Needham from Hold to Buy. The company reported lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues and lowered its guidance for the current fiscal year. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Resistance is at $17.70. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the beginning of November. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/clip_image00113.png "clip_image001[1]")
Wendy’s/Arby’s Group (NYSE: WEN) – $4.75 fell 2.5% after lowering guidance operating earnings and revenues for 2012. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is neutral. Support is at $4.67 and resistance is at $5.33. The stock trades below its 50 and 200 day moving average and is expected to open below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since November. Seasonal influences have just turned negative. Better opportunities are available elsewhere.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/clip_image00214.png "clip_image002[1]")
Wendy’s Arby’s Group Inc. (NYSE:WEN) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image003[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/image71.png "clip_image003[1]")
OfficeMax Inc. (NYSE: OMX) – $4.10 fell 6.8% after announcing lower than expected first quarter earnings and selected store closures. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $4.09 likely will be broken today. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since November 2010. Seasonal influences are peaking. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/clip_image00414.png "clip_image004[1]")
OfficeMax Incorporated (NYSE:OMX) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image005[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/image48.png "clip_image005[1]")
Interesting Charts
Reactions to news from the French and Greek elections were muted yesterday with exceptions. Strongest response was recorded by Greece’s equity market.
Although U.S. equity indices were virtually unchanged yesterday, only two S&P 500 stocks broke above intermediate resistance levels (Berkshire Hathaway and Equity Residential Properties Trust) and 14 stocks broke support (Accenture, Alcoa, American International Group, AmerisourceBergen, Citigroup, Cognizant, DaVita, Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold, Frontier Communications, Lockheed Martin, Molex, Oracle, Owens Illinois, Textron and Tiffany)
Keith Richards’ Blog
While the investment adage “The market climbs a wall of worry” sounds good, it’s actually not true. Find out why at www.smartbounce.ca
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Is the underperforming TSX poised for a rebound”? Following is a link to the report:
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC May 7th 2012
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: EA, OMX, WEN
May 8th, 2012 at 7:24 am
RAX missed again. It closed at 57.80 yesterday.
Too late to attempt any protection as of today.
The may 55 p closed at 1.80/2.05 iv 84 oi 7633
The may 60 call closed at 2.00/2.15 iv 78 oi 2940
from the puts oi, it looks like the miss could have been anticipated
sell the call for 2.00, use the money to buy the put for 2.05
net cost was 5 cents. not much cost, considering how much RAX will
decline on the open.
So let’s see how much of the loss would have been recouped.
(Could be not much, or could be a reasonable amount, again it
depends on the plunge in price (good) and in IV (bad).
So is this decline a buying opportunity for RAX longer term?
May 8th, 2012 at 9:16 am
Kay,
re. your Q. at #69 yesterday.
wrote you a note late last night, #108.
May 8th, 2012 at 9:16 am
Everyone:
Steven Whiteside’s review of markets for today.
http://www.eresearch.ca/technicalComment.asp?weeklyComment=1
May 8th, 2012 at 9:29 am
Rol Lew,
Thx for filling in on RAX options.
Good question at the end of your top post.
I would like to be a buyer of this but SPX levels are kind of looking scary with all the uncertainties around the politico(?!) world.
Gold is taking a tumble this AM finally.
Will have to re-examine my short G.to put position…Glad PM shorts are giving me more than what I’m losing on G.
Now a Q. for you if you can pl. when get a chance
TXT options what do you see? – Pl. see Don V.’s comments & chart on this today.
Thx.
.
Michael,
TXT has two gaps that are still not filled.
What does your Gap analysis tell you pl.?
thx.
May 8th, 2012 at 9:38 am
To all,
Keith Richads blog posted by Don is very interesting.
http://www.smartbounce.ca/?p=1204
and you should read his response to a comment. rally should pick back in august
May 8th, 2012 at 9:39 am
Hmm.. TSX is down 5th day in a row, another tough day for the miners.. I believe Gold’s support is at $1,611.
May 8th, 2012 at 9:57 am
Eve: Thanks for your response last eveninng. Unfortunately bought some POT into the close. One analyst mentioned yesterday it may not be a bad entry price. Time will tell.
gmsa: Really appreciate your explanation, I am trying to avoid these etfs as most deteriorate over time as per your post, one has to be lucky to find a trend and trade for any length of time. I am focusing on stocks mainly now, if I am wrong I can hold for a longer period vs etfs, I have lost with “H” product many times. Have a profitable one.
May 8th, 2012 at 9:57 am
Well, I told myself that I will cut my loss on hgu at $7 but then I look at abx or g chart and these stocks are so oversold! If I sell now I’ll be probably making a huge mistake, yet I need to draw a line at some point… Any opinions on senior gold producers? How much more beating are they likely to endure?
May 8th, 2012 at 10:00 am
Here is abx chart.. in the past, whenever it touched the bottom of keltner channel with setting 3 it would always bounce, but will it this time?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17151102892
May 8th, 2012 at 10:01 am
And here is Goldcorp.. it’s now below the bottom keltner channel with setting 3:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=G.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78338996209
May 8th, 2012 at 10:11 am
Anyone reviewing TCK.B, FM.TO, IMN.TO, AGU.TO, POT.TO charts. Please share what is entry point. Analysts are not always right. Glad that I did not follow entry points mentioned by some analysts on BNN.
Kay #7 POT.TO
I was tempted to enter to but I think it is headed to $40. But it does bounce back quickly when it turns.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:21 am
Hi gmsa. Indeed, TXT has one gap that could be filled at $22.02 and another at $20.26. I don’t follow this, but would guess that after the first one is filled you would see a bounce back up. The second gap is from January. A lot of gaps from more than three months ago aren’t filled (traders must only have a limited amount of memory!); however, Mr. Market seems to be in a grumpy mood so we could retest some lows.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:31 am
Good morning Michael, may I ask for your opinion on PCLN? It worked out well that I didn’t cover my short, wondering if I should do it now or do you think we may see more downside pressure.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:31 am
Michael,
Appreciate your views on the GAPs.
You are the Guru of Gaps!
I’ve already taken a stab at this AM. Will see how it panes out…strange thing is these days, such co. that I’ve no idea about funda., I’m trading that with the market movements & technicals only. And Mr. Market is helping me…am grateful for that.
I’m pulling down my buy to cover targets on these as markets trend lower.
An admission (between you and me only) I’ve taken a stab at slw (us) yesterday late PM. Glad it’s working out so far just like other PM stocks from short side.
I see your HZD.to keeping you happy as well.
Shall we both say Go DXY GO??!!
Happy tradings.
PS. your TAP came out with good results but it’s down, those coins you made were right on the money few days back. Your TAP also has a gap @ 39.45 or so.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:32 am
Tard, good for you for being patient with fm.to .. I’m stuck with my shares purchased last Friday. Turnaround Tuesday is not taking place today
May 8th, 2012 at 10:33 am
Tawny,
your bears are helping you today…
EPV up @ 4% and many other garden variety levered ETFs of yours.
Time to buy some more garden shrubs, plants & a treat for ‘real’ Tawny?
Cheers!
May 8th, 2012 at 10:36 am
gmsa, do you think the end of the carnage of gold stocks is near? They just said on bnn that abx.to is trading at 1993 levels.. smth to pause about (mind you it was much lower in 2008)
May 8th, 2012 at 10:37 am
You mean to say that no one bought DUST?
- me neither
http://www.gracelandupdates.com/images/stories/may12/2012may8dust1.png
May 8th, 2012 at 10:40 am
Hi Slava. Nice downward move in PCLN this morn. I could see it drop to $700 where there’s some support (and would likely dip below that) and it would still be in an uptrend. There’s a gap at $597 but that’s a long way down.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:40 am
Kay,
You’re welcome!
$CDW has moved 200 pips in past 7 trading days alone, wiping out lots of gains/losses based on the given position in large cap dual listed stocks. That’s the reason I didn’t short SLW yesterday on CDN side as I could see DXY rising and giving me less on slw.to short.
Glad you found the note helpful.
Stay with what helps you, and you can also take a quick shot at markets with these 2x & 3x etf for just few days….make sure direction is right.
Happy tradings!
May 8th, 2012 at 10:45 am
Tawny
I had note for you couple days ago , ERY .. those Bear were suggested.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:46 am
Slava,
I agree with Irwin’s note @ #18. I did take a small position in G.to by shorting put (a month ago) & it’s down $$$$ but since I’m more short than long in PM space + that long position is only my 1/3 position I’ve no problems.
Will take another long position on G.to when time comes & I feel brave enough.
No sleep lost on this, for sure.
Dennis Gartman’s one of the trading rule is (wrote to you last fall):
“if buying flowers make your married life easy, then buy more flowers more often!”
As simple as that.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:46 am
Here we go…… sell in May..
May 8th, 2012 at 10:46 am
The rationale for buying DUST explained:
“Most investors try to use short positions to call tops in markets. Instead, I suggest you use them to manage your emotions in the lowest prices areas, as you accumulate your gold stocks. I refer to these prices areas as my “personal surprise zones”.
“If you look at this DUST chart over the past two months, you can see that the price has risen about 100%. Investors like to wait for a substantial correction in price before buying any asset. I don’t think that’s such a good idea in this case.
“If DUST was a mining company, I’d endorse that strategy, but it is not a mining company. It’s a leveraged bet against mining companies.
“I view DUST as emotional insurance, not financial insurance. Most investors never expected gold stock prices to fall to the levels they are at now, and many are emotionally shattered.
“A similar thing happened in 2008, but in 2008 you didn’t have an investment vehicle like DUST to help you navigate through your personal surprise zone. So, many investors sold out into those lows. Let’s not repeat that error in 2012.
“Buy only the amount of DUST required to kill the emotional urge to liquidate your gold stocks. You will be pleasantly surprised by how little stock is required.
~Stewart Thomson
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_050812.html
May 8th, 2012 at 10:49 am
Irwin,
Thx for the link & the explanatory quotes from 321gold.
This evening will go through the entire thing with a quiet mind & see how it can help me manage my positions & emotions.
best!
May 8th, 2012 at 10:50 am
Hi gmsa. I think I’m going to hand down the gap crown to you! By the way, I took off my silver shorts (sounds weird) last month, but glad SLW is working in your favour. As for TAP, the results weren’t anything to cheer about. It looks like it could drop to $39.50 and close the gap from December. I would consider taking another position there.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:57 am
Is anyone buying here or do we experience more downside. S and P now 1352 +-.
We do we go. Are we oversold.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:59 am
Correction: S/B “where” do we go up/down from here. Thanks.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:00 am
Slava
ABX
Ray asked my toughts on ABX in march if memory serves me rightd price was near 42 at the time.
I told him if price dropped below 42 watch out below. and price needed to break above 18MA to go long, and his response was should price drop below 40 he would start nimbling at it.
ABX has to break above 18MA if you a winning shot at it.
so don’t rush in.
you will get better entry point.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:00 am
#23 gmsa – you are welcome
Days like this, I use for studying;
no panic buying or selling.
I try to wait for “dust” to settle, so to speak.
I’m thinking of buying my first Franco Nevada (FNV)
- perhaps around $40 (toronto)
May 8th, 2012 at 11:03 am
Michael,
Crown for me?! Gee…but no, thx.
My 7 year old daughter makes lots of crowns for me and pokes fun of me after making me look in the mirror…lol.
Do you take short positions? sorry don’t remember..but time to look at
ttm, tm, lnr.to, mg.to, orly, gm, f, azo – broken sector- looks like at this stage, a lot of hype was built into this in past several months.
Just like home building sector along with other home appliance makers. See how it goes in next few days.
.
Ray-Kitchener, Ana, Anna/TO & Tawny,
Time for $SPX game play?
My guess 1340 today, 2 aggressive may be?
But we haven’t seen a laaarge drop recently. Time 2day?
May 8th, 2012 at 11:04 am
Michael, I covered pcln short around $715.. left a few dollars on the table. They are reporting earnings tomorrow so it may pop.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:07 am
gmsa – you say
May 8th, 2012 at 10:33 am
Tawny, (MY COMMENTS IN BRACKETS & UPPER CASE)
your bears are helping you today…
( YES, YES, YES.)
EPV up @ 4% and many other garden variety levered ETFs of yours.
(DO NOT OWN EPV, I AM HOLDING TZA, FAZ, SQQQ) (ALSO HVU & a teenie UXVY)
Time to buy some more garden shrubs, plants & a treat for ‘real’ Tawny?
(DEAR POETIC GMSA, – PLEASE EXPLAIN IN COMMON ENGLISH, AS I AM UNSURE OF MEANING -
????????????
Cheers!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR COMMENTS -I MUCH APPRECIATE SOME HELP HEAR AS MY BRAIN IS BLED FLED! How can we know this is the begining of a flight downstairs and how far do we fall??????????
May 8th, 2012 at 11:07 am
Young
TCK
I am totally sorry I just went through thursday blog, and I saw you posted a question to me and I missed it.
but noticed someone answered back to you with a 24$ outlook.
price will retrace at least 26$ of October to fill the low end of the tail.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:09 am
Did Plunge Protection team forget to come to work today?
May 8th, 2012 at 11:09 am
Hi kay. Before I leave for the morn, we are approaching oversold in Toronto and New York. On SPY, there’s some good support at 134 but if Mr. Market continues to be grumpy, I would expect the gap to close at 133.02 (not a big difference).
I may put in stink bids on SIL and ZMT.to this morn.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:10 am
tony, what are your thoughts on fm.to and/or fcx? Wondering if I shoud just cut my losses here. Thanks.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:10 am
gmsa
for today 100MA or 1345 should stop the SnP in its tracks.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:12 am
Irwin,
re.#28
Thx for sharing your FNV idea. Have added to my PM watch list. Somehow never watched this on charts just heard about it on BNN.
Definitely an over performer as compared to many mid/large caps, your level looks good (I’m looking at FNV – US chart). May be 1/3 position for each of these levels 40/37/34.50 and then to the ‘prayer room’?
Good day!
May 8th, 2012 at 11:13 am
Gmsa, Back to #1 today –
RAX – “protection” would have worked out ok
The may 60 calls are now .00 / .05 oi 4455 iv 51
The may 55 puts are now 4.90 / 5.00 oi 9421 iv 41
so, redeem the insurance policy, buy the calls for .05
sell the puts for 4.90…. net 4.85
Rax is down 7.68 per share, so at least you got back 4.85 of that
(shoulda, coulda, woulda)
More interesting though, is that the policy cost just 5 cents per share,
but returned 4.85 4.80/.05 * 100 = 9600%
Looks like one of those stocks that go to infinity, eh?
Only it just took one night and lots of good luck.
Some would say “got lucky, last night”
Interesting too is that the puts oi was 7633 last night
but today it is 9421 – so it looks to me that some people
are still buying these things. Shutting the stable door
after the horse has bolted, into the next county no less.
but long term rax holders cannot complain about today’s miss.
rax went from 32 to 50 since jan 2011 – AND THAT IS A 56%
gain, how many of us have one of those among our holdings?
so yes – Gmsa, I really do think that a buying opportunity
is shaping up. All that macro garbage across the pond did not
in the end seem to hinder rax last year. it is a leader in the
cloud space and i want it, i have dillied & dallied for too long on this one.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:23 am
Slava
FM.to and FCX
FCX
Sorry maybe my mind is playing tricks on me didn’t I say if FCX doens’t break above 150MA you get out?
on a weekly chart fcx just broke below 200MA and the 50MA is a grumpy bear tumbling
if in luck tomorrow tries to retest the 4MA on a daily chart.
FM.to
I was going to say retest the 4MA for tomorrow but I see on the weekly 150MA was recent support and it just broke through
about pcln
yesterday you were congratulating Micheal, on pcln. bought friday assuming yesterday it would retest the 4MA. as today pcln back to being a grumpy old bear,
CMG below 400 time be be short
this is what I would do if you still own fm.to
May 8th, 2012 at 11:24 am
Michael:
Thanks for your comments, hope the S & P turns around now, time to go long I guess. Greece should be pushed out of the Euro, causing too much volatility in the markets. Small country but makes lots of noise and cause lots of problems. Would be a blessing.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:25 am
Tawny,
re.#31
‘time to buy some…’ as you love to do gardening & these profits from your lovely levered inverse ETFs will give you exactly that, right?
I think, I remember you mentioning that Tawny is the name of your pet dog….right? If I’m wrong, I will stand corrected. So the treat for your pet dog? that’s what I meant.
As for:
“How can we know this is the begining of a flight downstairs and how far do we fall??????????” — going back to your fav. tech analyst – Stephen Whiteside.
The fear, money flow to safety & DXY
Vix breaking above 20 range, TNX down/TLT up (bond bears on TBT licking dust!)
Gold speculators will go back to blaming PPT (plunge protection team), again!
DXY is up & needs to break above it’s recent upper range 80.25 & then 81.
eur/usd cross need to go close to 1.26 level
If all these are working out doesn’t matter how fast or slow in time, you’re safe and so I am or any bear for that matter.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:36 am
Thanks tony.. Osisko at -7.5% today. Good for you for being patient and not buying it yesterday.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Kay #26
Irwin #28
Steven Whiteside said this morning that it will be ok if S&P closes at 1373.66 or it goes down further. It is at 1352 as I write. Broke support 1357-1358 shown on Barchart.com. Next support shown 1340.
check out Steven’s review – he is pretty good in predicting.
http://www.eresearch.ca/technicalComment.asp?weeklyComment=1
May 8th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Comparing FNV.TO Franco Nevada to a few other securities.
chart:
http://i47.tinypic.com/2cztu92.jpg
May 8th, 2012 at 11:46 am
Tony & Michael,
thx for playing the $spx game.
Tony spx as of right now got stopped at 100ema @ 1348.85
.
Rol Lew,
Yeah infinity, eh?
Congrats on your RAX play throught Option & so as on your G.to puts!
‘got lucky, last…” – lol.
They have invested enough in cloud space with the next generation stuff. So should help them big, Q. is how long b4 this space become commoditized?
Fossil causing lots of fuss in xrt? those high-fliers pvh, rl, lulu, etc. working well for shorts…Slava still in lulu shorts or covered already? Pair trade xly vs. xlp working very well again!
But taking a jab at this when max fear is there via sold put option, good idea?
Pl. & thx.
.
Irwin,
thx for the link @ #44
May 8th, 2012 at 11:47 am
gmsa
Understand that better, – like I say, my mind is very slow at this time..
Whiteside said that if vIX breaks above 21.88 the market is likely to really head down, so I think until then, I will just watch what I already have before buying more bears. Thanks for your kindness in remembering my garden and pet(s)… the other one is Abby.
BTW – I had been figuring if the markets head south because of Europe there would be a flight to DXY, causing commoditiies, esp. gold to go down also. So, how low can it go…. broke 1600, now above. Wondering if it is time to buy CEF.A – I see the one year low on this is at $19.27 and it’s now trading at $20.07.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:48 am
Tard: Thanks for your comments and the link. I remember him saying he was not following the S and P and Dow trend sometime last week. Hope you followed his advise and went short, unfortunately this time I am not holding any inverse etf.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:50 am
Slava:
Watching FM.TO – So disappointing. I am holding some to trade and want to add when it bootoms. Seen it breaking 5,20,50,100, 200 MDAverages. Trend is down.
Pivot point is 18.26 Resistance18.98.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:52 am
Tard:
Did you buy “POT” turning around nicely.
Slava: I notice AEM seems to be the strongest gold stock presently, its turning around fast, but I guess HGU does not hold it.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:54 am
Anyone watching AGU.To
Eve: Will it go to $80? Looking for an entry point. I have noticed you are pretty good at pointing that out.
Thanks
May 8th, 2012 at 11:58 am
kay, the key stocks for hgu’s success is barrick and goldcorp and both are doing very poorly again today.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:58 am
More on gold stocks:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34547.html
May 8th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Kay 49.
Good for you you got it at 4 and 13 week low. Are you going to get out with quick profit or are long? I missed it this morning as I was busy reading
May 8th, 2012 at 12:06 pm
I’m not very experienced at reading charts, but it appears to me that there is a real good support level for the $tsx at about 11,500. Which would be another 150 to 200points still. Am I reading this right?
Thanks,
Brian
May 8th, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Are we overdone? Most charts show near 4 and 13 week low?
May 8th, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Michael, great call on RGR.. it bounced off $47 support and heading higher now.
May 8th, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Tawny,
Abby & Tawny, nice pair you’ve got there.
For CEF -may be- wait for stocks stop going down while $gold keeps going down? And then may be, possibly, take a small long position? Irwin’s FNV idea is one I like…as I’m not too much fond of CEFs.
$spx still very weak & more downside possibly coming soon, may be after it tries for 1358/1361 first? Need to trap more bulls & bottom fishers? not sure…
.
CJ,
You must be happy now having taken your long bets off the MCD trade few weeks ago.
Trust things are okay with you & Gord.
May 8th, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Tard: Not sure when I will exit, volatility drives me crazy so will wait and see. Actually I am one of those conservative Canadian who would rather sit on GIC, but leaders have screwed savers over the years and forced many to take some risk.
May 8th, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Here are two rational approaches from few of my fav. market observers:
1. Art Cashin- Pl. watch this 3min. video
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000089030&play=1
2. Peter Gibson – he was a guest on BNN between 1030-11am. Watch it there at bnn.ca
May 8th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Hi Eve,
Thank you for your insights, last might. What I meant the environment we are in is the stock market declining.
Happy Trading, Ania
May 8th, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Slava:
Re: RGR:
The uptrend line has been broken to the downside. I will no longer swing trade it as that involves holding for weeks. I doubt it will go to new highs any longer. Easy money made and out. If you still wish to have a go with RGR, I suggest intraday only until it develops a new pattern. Safety first.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGR&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p46509961146&a=262513967&listNum=22
Have fun.
Frank.
May 8th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Re the SPX:
i wrote about a week ago to Muntazir about the SPX levels and the TSX and SPX and where they should/ would go to to find support on a pullback (it was on weekend i wrote this to him) – here is just a brief overview for the SPX and levels of support to watch for (i wrote this in an email to a friend of mine early this morning – so, I’m just copying and pasting it for here):
IF the spx falls below STRONG support at 1356, then it will go down to its next STRONG support which is at 1340. 1350 will also act as a support but isn’t as strong as 1340.
if it goes below 1340, the next support is at 1333 and then 1330.
if 1330 fails, then it will head towards 1300. there’s support too at 1320 to 1325.
if 1300 fails, then 1292 – 1290 is next.
if that fails, then 1275 and 1250 and 1225 are the next support levels.
the 200 day ma is at 1276 as of today.
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
My nephews are here today, so i don’t have time today to answer questions OR even read the board
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Slava:
Listen to Tony. CMG below $400. Therefore you can add to your short position as it may accelerate to the downside here. Read my notes in the chart I showed you last week when I advised shorting it. Shaping up nicely, I believe.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMG&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p43321867779&a=265131502&listNum=14
Enjoy.
Frank.
May 8th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
#52 – Slava – thanks for posting the interview with Eric Coffin.
I like his closing remarks:
“I’ll just leave you with a contrarian thought: Everybody’s so negative right now because this is what bottoms look like. Everybody thinks the world is coming to an end. Everybody thinks it’s the worst market they’ve ever been in. Everybody thinks nothing is ever going to go up. That’s what a bottom looks like. It’s not fun to go through. There’s so much negativity everywhere that it’s telling me as a contrarian that there’s probably not a lot more pain to go through before things start getting better. ~Eric Coffin
May 8th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Tony: I stayed away from ABX. I will jump back into Gold in June when Benny and the Inkjets start up QE4. Right now I am short Oil, and day traded SPXU and HVU today for some small gains. If we close below 1358, then I will be buying bears this aft.
May 8th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Tony:
I have not talked to you in ages. Is it not lovely to be mostly in cash as the market begins to swoon? Let’s make a few bucks on the downside because we may one day be getting some phenomenal deals on staocks. We shall see.
And how are your boys doing? Healthy, strong and running like maniacs once again, I hope.
Have fun.
Frank.
May 8th, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Remember: DJIA election year seasonality.
3rd chart down:
http://charts.equityclock.com/dow-jones-industrial-average-four-year-election-cycle-seasonal-charts
May 8th, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Ray
If you could refresh my memory, on the subject that I mentionned earlier to Slava is pretty close to what I mentionned to you on ABX back in march.
isn’t it.
SCO man its been flying high.
Benny and the InkJets did you read Keith Richards comment on sell in may
before the end of the summer the printing press should be back working 24/7.
May 8th, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Irwin:
Thanks for the chart, looks like we should take a break and return another in another couple of weeks unless we short.
May 8th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
gmsa
Need to catch up on some posts above, but while I think of it, could you please tell me how you are tracking eur/usd – perhaps a chart you can post, or a link? Would appreciate that.
May 8th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
#70 – kay
Agreed
As tempting as it is to buy now, I’m waiting.
- collecting dividends
- walk along the river
- make a new friend
- romance in the moonlight
- “only a goon wastes a full moon”!
May 8th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Tony: Yes. I asked you about ABX and indicated to you that I get very interested when it dips below $40. Nevertheless, I stayed away given the large drop in Gold. It will come into favor when the bond swap ends and Benny has to print in June.
Yes SCO has been good for me. I am still holding. I am swing trading Oil. Bought it at $104. Once we bottom and start moving up, I will sell and switch to UCO. $95 may be the bottom. We will see. Low for the week has been 95.34. The Oil Sands guys are probably starting to worry. I think we will see the sell off continue in the last 1/2 hour. I sold my SPXU and HUV this a.m. and may hop back in.
May 8th, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Frank
Yeah its been a while since we spoke directly.
Kids are doing fine, we had a good sunny w-e, but the remainder of the week will be mostly under the rain.
wainting to see the bears to break above the MA above as it could be a resistance for them. We are one day before all hell gets lose.
May 8th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
#73.
Ray-Kitchener,
Operation twist does not end until June 30, 2012. Therefore it is unlikely that a new program will be introduced immediately.
May 8th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Ron/AB
avl, mcp, ree, tc
Rare metals are getting killed today
Avl -26%
MCP -4%
ree -6%
tc -8%
ouch to the holders.
rare metals are getting killed.
what a luchj
May 8th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
what a luchj
but what a luck staying out of this sector as its been a bear most of the year.
May 8th, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Did you see FOSL? Down $47 or 38%. Wow – now that would hurt.
May 8th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Frank, thanks for rgr and cmg updates.. I think lulu may start its decent as well given what’s happening with FOSL and other consumer disc. stocks.
May 8th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Hey girls and guys, do you think lulu is a short now? I covered too soon, thinking of re-shorting.
May 8th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Ray
FOSL
I just saw it, ouch to the small retail investor,
I remember Pete “the pit boss” Najarian back in 07-08 mention time and time again if you have profits buy some puts it won’t cost you that much to buy some protection.
Only traders that play stock with the combination of puts are unscatched at this point in time.
May 8th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Tony,
Re. 69
I am also underwater with HGU and SLW. When you are in the red, this is not so easy to exit. I was not quick enough again last week to exit before it started going down. I was almost broke even. Right now, I am in the red with both my shorts and my longs. This is difficult to fix a bad move without taking some risk and then your timing is wrong. You do not add to your shorts when you should and you watch your longs going further in the red. Tony, believe me this is not fun. Always in recovery mode. Please suggest a strategy to exit, but don’t make fun. I don’t believe this is stubborness from Slava’s part. You get adverse to risk altogether. Sorry, I had to say something. This is like working full time with no rewards. Harder you work, worse it gets. Again, not great. This is very hard to reverse the tide. So, please be kind in your comments. I feel her pain. Also, don’t forget not everyone is successful. There are many posters who do not say anything because they are too deep in the red and are also deeply depressed not being able to successfully trade these markets who have a mind of their own. Thanks Tony.
May 8th, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Tawny,
EUR/USD cross just like many other crosses you can watch live on freestockcharts dot com and draw charts as you like with your own crayons!
For the eur/usd you can also watch FXE – Ryders ETF- like FXA, FXC, FXY and so on.
You can get the same data through forexpros dot com as well. This site has data from market makers & not the exchanges and mainly CFDs(Cash For Difference).
May 8th, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Hi Irwin. Re your DJIA chart, I had a mental note to look that up today! This sort of corresponds to the next Bradley date (June 12).
May 8th, 2012 at 2:54 pm
gmsa
#84… ok, i be an ignoramous… STockcharts…. what symbol pleeese!
BTW, my keboard is working well again (for now), never underestimate a woman’s technique; be it nail fil or bashing, or dropping.. hahaha
May 8th, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Ray/k
You say if the market closes SPX below 1358 you will buy more bears this aft.. this is not possible, i.e. to buy after the close or are you able to? Wish I could. Anyway, do you mean in the last 6 or 7 minutes? Thanks
May 8th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Hi Martine, I must have missed Tony’s post but you are right – it’s very hard to book a very large loss. I have to say that I’ve been EXTREMELY unlucky with HGU since Gold itself has been in the same $1,600 range in the last two months yet HGU lost -30%. There was no way to know that Barrick will drop to 1993 price while gold is $1,600. Also, in the last two months there were several times when it looked like gold stocks were turning around, this is another reason why I stayed invested.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Martine,
re this:
When you are in the red, this is not so easy to exit. I was not quick enough again last week to exit before it started going down.
This is difficult to fix a bad move without taking some risk and then your timing is wrong. You do not add to your shorts when you should and you watch your longs going further in the red. Tony, believe me this is not fun. Always in recovery mode.
I don’t believe this is stubborness from Slava’s part. You get adverse to risk altogether.
This is like working full time with no rewards. Harder you work, worse it gets. Again, not great. This is very hard to reverse the tide.
I feel her pain.
Also, don’t forget not everyone is successful. There are many posters who do not say anything because they are too deep in the red and are also deeply depressed not being able to successfully trade these markets who have a mind of their own.
Just on these parts you’ve written Martine, I completely agree with you!! I can’t comment at all on what you are referring to re tony’s comments as they are not on the board I guess – BUT I can say that I don’t think tony is trying to make fun at all with comments he says – it just isn’t him to make fun of others that way.
I’ve told Slava often about feeling her pain and as I’ve posted SEVERAL times on the board myself, I’ve had major losses in the past few years (but I’m not at all depressed because I find it easy to make gains too) – so when the losses occur, they are definitely not fun – not at all fun – and then yes, you do freeze up in doing any trading after that. I recently told Slava that I’m going to become a “shorter” now – not just a long person but I’m going to short things now too! Shorted RAX last week but covered it last Friday as I didn’t want to hold it going into earnings. Didn’t make much with the short (just $1500) as I only shorted 1000 shares – but still, it was a positive trade. So, i think I’ll get into shorting going forward – I think it’s easier to make money shorting than going long – especially when stocks are overbought on the charts.
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Tawny,
Be gentle with that keyboard pl.
Nasty Gas moved from 2.28 to 2.46 – now try that with double levered inverse ETF!
lol…no wonder lots of people don’t touch it.
HND swing 9.13-7.84, what a ride!
Wondering how ugly the $bpgdm chart would look after today’s close?
So it did happen, they ran it up all the way almost 1360 as I was fearing, well time to short more now or may be 2moro?
May 8th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Martine re #83
WOW, I hear you…. and you are in good company I am sure there are others who, unlike Slava, hesitate to announce major errors on the blog. And, if it can happen to you, then it can happen to anyone…. please take that as a compliment! Hope you figure a way out… sometimes doing nothing is the best thing. But what the hay do I know. So I wish you good luck and most of all peace (pssst it’s only money)! You have your health? The boys have their health? You aren’t starving? You have a roof over your head? I think about the people who are truly suffering – and then I don’t feel so bad… to the tune of “whistle a happy tune”
May 8th, 2012 at 3:07 pm
gmsa
Guess you did not get my request with all the stuff about keyboard. What do I look up on stockcharts do follow the UEUR/US$ please
May 8th, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Eve,
I sent you another email yesterday. Not sure what happened to the last one. Hope you get this one. Thanks!
KC
May 8th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
#83. Martine,
You refer to post #69, however that is not Tony’s post.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:18 pm
GMSA or others,
SLW.TO : Is 26.20 area considered a strong support point or is S2 pivot ? I’ve been watching this closely and it broke below $27.30 support. If Silver is seasonally bad at from this time of year, would it still be ok to buy in and at least get something out of it where technicals recover from this deeply oversold level ? Can we see it go to mid Keltner for example? Or is that a futile battle ?
Thanks,
KC
May 8th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Eve,
I’m now cursing myself for not selling SAP.TO at the $46 area, I was hoping it would break through that to $47 and it did’nt. Do you think it will go lower from here and break down through the 50MA or bounce off it ? Its below mid Keltner too.
Thanks,
KC
May 8th, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Tawny: Last 5 minutes. It would appear that the Primary dealers are not going to let this happen. They have moved in with a vengeance in the last hour. It looks like we could be flat at the close. It would be nice to be able to play with that kind of dough.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Tawny,
I’m sorry this HND ride along with NG based stox making me kind of dizzy! lol
What I meant by crayons is to draw horizontal support resistance lines as you like and see the channel. Eur down against USD is a major risk off – sort of & good for DXY to say the least. Superimpose that with $spx and you will see how things work!
BTW it’s not stockcharts it is ‘freestockcharts dot com’ – where you get free access in real time and have all sorts of fun.
If you want stockcharts only & not the freestockcharts then look at fxe, $xeu or inverse euo. Freestockcharts dot com is the best for such crosses like eur/usd, cad/usd, jpy/usd, usd/aud etc.
Hope this clarifies, Tawny.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Ray, I agree .. and volatility dropped a lot too, at a day low now.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:31 pm
KC,
In downtrend sell the rallies & buy the supports or extreme dips.
Throw in any equity with major indices and you can play the game over & over.
Simple enough, you pick your own indicators etc.
I covered my slw & many other shorts with very nice profit$s!
Tomorrow is another day, as Ray-Kitchener & Wayne plays.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Slava, Eve, Tawny,
Tony’s comment is now under no.70. A “told you so” when the HGU is at its lowest might not be the most appropriate comment, that’s all. Tony is a great guy. I don’t need to meet him to be able to say that. I can tell. He is jprobably wonderful. However, sometimes, one has to be careful. It is painful enough in its own without adding to it. It would also be nice to hear about great setup as it takes place, as some people do from time to time, not after the fact. It would be more helpful and we would all rejoice as the success would be shared.
Eve,
I don’t short and never will. Losses are unlimited if you go wrong. I do not like the mindset either as you benefit from other people’s losses. Markets would not be as volatile if shorting was not allowed. For sure, gold stocks would not be were they are right now!
May 8th, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Nice turnaround, holding FCX, POT and AEM…glad I didn’t sell this a.m. For all those that are at a lost on “H” hell etfs know I am with you. Please try to avoid these beast.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:38 pm
gmsa,
As the expert in shorting SLW, at what level would you be looking at shorting it again? I have to sell my position before you get another g at it. Thanks.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Martine,
re.#101
you wrote “I do not like the mindset either as you benefit from other people’s losses.”
Now isn’t that true that when markets go up & shorts forced to cover and longs get a boost. Is that a ‘bad’ profit then in your eyes?
Although I understand you can have your own views on your money & investments but taking market moves so personally is not really very good.
Shorts or longs – they are out there to make money period and they both provide bid/ask – how come ask is bad & bid is good in your books?
May be you like the markets to go in your ways to the infinity?
So longing the inverse ETFs – is it good or bad?
Sorry to say this, but had to throw in the other side as well to make it even.
Hope you & everyone can recoup your/their losses.
But remember markets are not fair…and hope you don’t play with the ‘fairness’ in your mind.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
gmsa:
Are you still short or have you exited. Tomorrow hopefully is an up day.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Martine,
re.#103
As an expert in shorting slw…?
lol, I’ve lost more money in shorting slw than making any. Ask Michael or go read the blog from the past, I’ve lost more than just the shirt
But taking advantage of the trend is an urge that I could not resist yesterday PM and took the plunge…pl. read my words in yesterday’s post on this.
I will tell you when I’ve taken a short position on slw again. Just try drawing your trend lines with resistances/supports & then go look at $silver prices/charts. It’s weaker as compared to $gold.
With all due respect Martine, I hope, you don’t see me as your ‘enemy’ now.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:54 pm
gmsa,
I don’t think you understood what I meant. Trading is trading whether you are short or long. There is nothing wrong about it. Except when you are long, you invest in a business. When you go short, you make a bet that the stock will lose value. Mind you, some momo stocks are curently so overvalued, you know there is a lot of air underneath. The marketmalers are also always there to add excitement to your day. Don’t worry, I am not an idealist of any sort. I am just not comfortable shorting. Also, between bad and good, there is a huge grey zone. There is nothing personal and no judgement of any sort. Please don’t get upset. I was just asking you point of view as far as SLW is concerned as you are actively trading it.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Tard, did you manage to snatch any fm.to for a trade? From $17.37 to $17.95 now.
May 8th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
I believe that this bounce is nothing but short covering bounce. If it continues 2moro, spx can go to 1375/1380 max.
Currency moves not agreeing to this $spx moves…but then again I will stand corrected if proven wrong. FED people are going to be speaking in next couple of days.
.
Kay,
I had 10+ diff. short positions on variety of sectors/equities & then inverse ETFs on top of that.
I’m managing with the things based on my levels, while dealing with greed/fear.
Not all is covered & not all are left as a ‘whole’ position as of right now.
Taking profits along the way is a sure way to make money….I missed COG covering move by 4 cents & now it’s up 1.50 dollar from there..but I’m not complaining.
It will come down…all I can do is wait or throw in a towel??!!
May 8th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
BPF.Un, POW, SLF
Added all three to my RRSP for its dividend returns. Long term hold.
May 8th, 2012 at 4:05 pm
VSN, DI.UN, TCL.A
Also added to RRSP account for its dividends. Long term hold.
May 8th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Martine and Al.
I am not laughing I have wrote a stupid 1 page all in all comment and it doesn,t even give me waiting for moderation.
btw you guys forgot who you are talking to, Me the one who lost 90% capital in one w-e with FNM
I was lucky enough to have written it in word.
and BTW I do have a job so I have to offer 100% of my time to my work but since I am flexible I can spear time here and there.
will repost my comment after this one as this one is a test.
May 8th, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Think will have to split my comment in two.
as I changed buts and pieces and it simply doesn’t moderator is having a fit with me
Martine and al.
There is no laughing here, trust me, the only thing I am happy about is that this time aroud even tho I took small losses here and there. I took the advice from all the great investors of this world such as Ron/BC, (and from the tutorials) and took the small pain before the big pain came around.
I know too well how it fells taking it on the chin, lived through it with FNM, in one w-e time or BAC in 2011 the bears killed me slowly I took 50% decline before throwing in the towel, and came back when price was at 6.7 and rode it up to 8.7$ was able to make back my loss.
HGU.to, it hasn’t been able to get above the 18MA
SLW.to its been slowly eroding itself. same thing since it broke below 18MA its been having problems getting above it to the extent that it lost 10$ in value.
how to make it back.
Not easy but here it goes
sell 75% stake of each stock
and buy hzd.to with the money you got selling slw.to buy price the 4MA
and with the money you got selling hgu.to I would 50% in hvu and the other 50% in hfd.to
May 8th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Tony,
Don’t worry! I think you are the greatest. I was just trying to express some concerns.
May 8th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Hi Ric. I’ve been looking at GWO and PWF. The latter has a better yield than POW. I’m also looking at National Bank again as it’s also oversold.
May 8th, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Hi Michael,
I was looking at slw & shows they are reporting on May 24 ( looks like dejavu from march like yesterday when I asked for your opinion). What are your views on it.
Also if you have time your opinion on cco,cef & rci.b. I did not get chance to buy anything since your last answer to me which with hindsight is good.
May 8th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
More on gold:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/05/08/gold-ripe-for-a-comeback-on-european-anti-austerity-us-worries/?partner=yahootix
May 8th, 2012 at 4:34 pm
there are no butts but bits and pieces.
tomorrow is one stupid day as price on both hgu and slw are below 4MA(child not tagging mommy so they should come back), but volume is no where high enough today to say the last bulls have been flushed out to be bullish for a reversal.
you know what I like if you don’t go pushing the envelope with 100K shares but a nice 1000 shares not more so should you sell it would be nice and smooth,
HFD here is why
bmo, ry, td, cm, na, bns
some of them might have found support such as BNS, NA but for the most part they have all the same thing 18/50 Big POLAR Bear crossing in recent days.
I don,t know what HFD holds but most banks have simply either on the US or CND are bearish with 18/50 cross,
some hnu.to with a tight stop as this one for the 1st time broke above 50MA stop loss 50MA or 11.33
and some hxd.to
all these are with tight stops.
as a loss is easily encoutered.
One technique to you can use is the counter trade.
its you split 50-50
so for instance when you enter slw.to at the same time you buy hzd.to the silver bear with a 6% stop loss should slw.to move with up 6%(I know HZD is -2X silver) you take off hzd and transfer it all in to slw so as price increases your loss is reduced to a zero so tha your long will always be a winner at 80% of the time(when you first start). and at every 20% upside you take that 20% put it back in the bear should the bear give you 6% get all you long out and put it all in your bear.
but I would take HZU and HZD for this type of investment.
now for all those dissing me don’t think I sit on my ass all day
BTW why am I the one being blamed because of FOSL took it on the chin, I have ten company in my portfolio, if they don’t work I go elsewhere when I got an itch, and Am greatful Slava asked me about gte when it was trading at 4.77 pushed all the way to 5.14 missed all the rest of the upside.
btw todays bounce has nothing to do with plunge protection team, its all the algos kicking in to high gear.
and Martine I told you so is not today, it was last week I told her about hgu.to back vs O&G, oil and Gas flew on the MACD H accumulation and warned her that HGU was not there then.
and saying things out loud can be hurtful even to me.
and I have mentionned time and time again get in out in out, I won’t pick a fight with Slava she is her own woman, and is old enough to take her own decisions.
I would be glad to meet any of you, we may have difference of opinion but that is life.
May 8th, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Hi Muntazir. SLW is reporting on May 14. My views are mixed on SLW.to. Today, it reached my downside target of $26 (more or less) and is very oversold; however, unlike the last report, I think that the results will be mediocre as the price of silver has dropped. I may be buying some (or SIL, the silver equity ETF) this week).
As for CCO, they reported good earnings last week but I have been reluctant to buy back at this level. Right now, I would prefer to see this under $20 (below the lower Keltner).
CEF.A is also oversold and bounced off support today. I could see this poking through the mid-Keltner at $21, but that’s when it has had a habit of retreating.
RCI.B is also oversold and basically hit my lower target of $35.52 this morn but wasn’t watching it. Today’s price action suggests a bearish candlestick, so it may retest this low. If it gets to $35, I would probably pick it up for a trade.
May 8th, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Tony, I really appreciate your advice and comments, even if they are a bit harsh at times (I deserve it)! My options with hgu remain – take a huge loss or wait it out.. Waiting it out can mean losing another $40k.. if HGU drops to $5. Can’t afford that. Agonizing decisions. I’ve never ever ever imganed that gold stocks will behave the way they did since late February. On April 12th HGU was at $9.30! So -24% in three weeks, truly shocking.
May 8th, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Tony re #119
That is all very “nice advice” you have posted… (boy I like ryhmes).
The HFD is on buy sig… Whiteside said today that if TSX financials break 200ms, very bearish for TSX. When I look at XFN it is almost at 200ma.
Next trip to Montreal, I would love to meet you (with or without family)… perhaps a cuppa expresso! or longe – I prefer.
May 8th, 2012 at 5:03 pm
Tony (Slava too)
Re gold… if market continues lower due to Eurozone, US$ goes up, right? That means commodities including gold will come down even more, right? Not sure if gold stocks do the same tho’?
May 8th, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Slava
I think you may need to take up your HGU loss with your Michael, didn’t he prevent you from accessing your computer while you were away? The chart does not look good as you know, it has rallied slightly each time it has hit the 20,3 keltner, so you might get back up to around $8 shortly, but unless something out of the ordinary happens, you may have to wait till around July for a upward trend to occur as that tends to be the seasonal strong period. I hope it works out for you.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HGU.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75582632691&a=262067296
May 8th, 2012 at 5:13 pm
It seems it is better to stay on the sideline during this volatile market.
I am increasing my cash position now.
May 8th, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Thanks Tony for reading my question and getting back to me.
May 8th, 2012 at 5:16 pm
tony & gmsa
Mark Leibovit has nat gas as a buy about a week ago? on his volume reversal signal, I believ… no I didn’t buy as there was so much negativit on this board.
May 8th, 2012 at 5:31 pm
Dose anyone know what is going on with HAC?
Looks like someone unloaded a bunch. Thought they would be short, but the fund has not moved when the market was up. Now that the market is down, it’s not moving either!
Have to wait and see what the next report says.
Cheers
May 8th, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Hi Eve,
I hope you are enjoying with your nephews. Just caught up with the comments & I know I am late but just wanted to share 2 opinions re naked calls. When TDW agent asks question it is assumed that the person who sells naked calls is not going to cover it ( maybe bcs is ignorant/stubborn), hence looks for ans unlimited loss. Now following you for a while, I know you would cover it, OR somebody like Rollew might sell a spread in the 1st place. Just to add by selling a naked(uncovered) call one is bearish in stock, similar to one buying puts (which has limited risk).Just my opinion.
May 8th, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Be careful for a “buy the dip scheme”, I think we have all seen this before.
May 8th, 2012 at 6:02 pm
Tony,
RE… #82
# ” ” 82.tony Says:
May 8th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Ray
FOSL
I just saw it, ouch to the small retail investor,
I remember Pete “the pit boss” Najarian back in 07-08 mention time and time again if you have profits buy some puts it won’t cost you that much to buy some protection.
Only traders that play stock with the combination of puts are unscatched at this point in time. ” ”
********************
Well spoken, Tony, but as I recall, even you do not use puts, so you really
cannot expect people here to listen. Some of the posters just do not much care
for them, or do not really know where they come from, or what they are.
****************
Martine,
On # 83 – I do know how you feel, as I have been there so
many times before, including this week with those $@**# oils that I so loved just
4 days ago. I am getting hammered on these. But thanks for some MCP off-setting puts.
When you “invest” you WILL LOSE OFTEN. That is a given.
What Tony is “saying” is a better way to go.
Tony, hopefully when you have more time & the inclination,
you will develop this idea a bit more,
(as if you do not do enough already!….. Thanks Tony)
*************
Martine,
Look at FOSL today, or look at RAX.
Or look at SGQ.TO, TCM.TO, WYNN, MAKO, TAST, SMG, SNCR, AVL, DNDN,TCCO,
When you have gaps down like this, a stop loss will not help.
Look at GDX that has been causing so much grief recently.
from 46.50 to 42.00 in 7 days—– down 4.50 or 9.9%
from 48.30 to 42.00 in 18 days—– down 6.30 or 13%
from 50.60 to 42.00 in 25 days——- down 8.40 or 16.6%
Now looking back, how much pain would have been enough?
So 6% let’s say. If you really wanted to, you could limit your future
losses to 5 or 6 % on any trade, by hedging your longs with Puts.
But YOU have to want to trade that way.
Buy your stock AND buy a put that will limit your losses
but not your gains.
If you cannot hedge it, then do not trade it.
You have to want to trade that way…. short term trading,
but not necessarily day-trading.
*************************************
Eve,
I have to admit, I had to do a double take on your #90..
” ” Shorted RAX last week but covered it last Friday as I didn’t want to hold it going into earnings. Didn’t make much with the short (just $1500) as I only shorted 1000 shares – but still, it was a positive trade. So, i think I’ll get into shorting going forward – I think it’s easier to make money shorting than going long – especially when stocks are overbought on the charts. ” ”
So do you now feel that you have joined the “dark side”?
I know that you were always dead set against this type of behaviour.
RAX advanced about 2.85 from the day’s lows. Does it always act
like this after a miss? OHLC 50.40 52.63 49.78 52.63
May 8th, 2012 at 6:22 pm
I don’t see how hfd is attractive right now given that some of the components (bmo, for example) are quite oversold:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62527370448
May 8th, 2012 at 6:23 pm
tony, then you are suggesting hvu but hvu is super volatile.. also, it tracks vxx which loses 12% a month (or smth like that) due to contango. I do use hvu from time to time as a day trading tool only. I remember holding it overnight and waking up to a -10% loss.
May 8th, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Rol Lew or others, this is probably a stupid question, but I just looked at the option trading screen and I was wondering what does “Position” mean? It prompts me to chose “opening or closing” position. Let’s say I want to buy May 2012 $58 call option on bmo.
May 8th, 2012 at 6:34 pm
hi Rol lew,
Well, RAX RARELY ever misses earnings (it hasn’t missed in over a year). BUT, I wrote LAST WEEK to a friend of mine that IF it missed, it would go to $48/ $49 – and that if it beat, it would go to $65. He then asked me yesterday what more punishment could the stock get after it missed yesterday – and I wrote this to him:
it shouldn’t be that badly punished because it rarely misses earnings – it usually beats really well – and it only missed by 1 penny too!
There’s strong support at $48.50 (and at various other prices under this of $46.50, $44.50, several points in the $42′s and in the $41′s, $40, and at $39) – BUT, IF the markets don’t go below 1300 in the coming weeks/ months, then RAX shouldn’t go below $47. I think the markets though WILL go below 1300 in the coming weeks/ months – so, RAX should find support in the $40′s. It’s hard to say at what price due to not really knowing har far down the overall market will go to in the next few months.
Yes, a friend of mine was COMPLETELY shocked I had shorted something (he’s the one I wrote to last week about RAX) – and yes, I have now been convinced by many people that shorting is NEEDED to make a market – just as going long is NEEDED too – and it’s just as gmsa has said – that the shorts will suffer at times just as the longs will – and it’s like what YOU just wrote too Rol, in saying that people CAN protect themselves by simply buying puts (IF they’re able to that is with their trading accts AND have the know how too to know how to use the options that way).
So, yes, I guess I’m now a “dark sider” Rol
I told Slava last week that she now has a “short” buddy 
I haven’t shorted anything though since RAX – lol – but I do plan to 
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Muntazir,
Thanks for that
Yes, I realize that selling acall is like shorting a stock as I wrote that yesterday on here myself 
(same as buying a put too as you said). Thanks though Muntazir – I appreciate your post 
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Tard,
re AGU.TO:
It does have strong support at $80 as it bounced off that level twice in the last few months (also bounced up from $79.27 in January). So, it looks like in a more severe decline in the markets, that it could easily go down to that $80 level. There is also strong support at $78 too! So, something to watch for
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 6:50 pm
KC,
Yes, I see your email – will read soon and will reply when I can
re SAP.TO:
It looks like it is heading to the $42′s as there is A LOT of support in that price of the $42′s (at $42.19, .50, and .66) – plus the keltner bottom is at $42.66. The fact it has fallen much below the mid keltner is not a good thing as it “suggests” it could be turning into a downtrend. IF it can get back up towards the keltner top (rather than just getting to the mid keltner and coming down again), then it sugests the uptrend may still be intact. IF it gets just to the mid keltner and then comes down again, then that will be almost a certain confirmation that it is now turning into a downtrend. So, that mid point of the keltner needs to be watched! Mid point as of today is at $44.83.
IF it gets back up to $46.50 area (like $46 to $46.50 type of thing), and can’t go any higher than that, then it would “suggest” an “M” is forming and that is bearish. So, if it does that, I would get out at around $46.
Just remember KC: sometimes it’s better to sell something at a very small loss of like less than $2 per sgare, than it is to hold it to hope something gets back up to your buy in price AND beyond that buy in price so a profit can be made.
eve
May 8th, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Brian/ON,
The support points for the TSX are these:
11,617, 11,500, 11,420, and 11,300 to 11,200.
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Martine,
re.#108
Thx for the clarifying note.
I’m not upset at all! Hope you don’t get me wrong while we respectfully exchange our ideas & try finding the balanced approach within the limits of our own comfort zone.
After writing “I do not like the mindset either as you benefit from other people’s losses”, if you’re having second thoughts then it’s okay as it’s your right to do so. It’s your money at the end, and I respect that.
What you said there is true to your style of investing or your level of comfort + if there were no ‘unlimited upside risks -theoretically, of course!-‘ to shorting, may be this wouldn’t fall in that ‘grey zone’ and would qualify as ‘morally good’ investment style and many others would possibly join in as well?
Now let’s examine if this thesis is true and to what extent:
Thesis – “shorting is bad as you’re profiting from someone’s losses”.
1. Then no one should buy the stocks either -as in going long-, cause now as per that exact theory one is looking forward to making money off the poor sellers who is selling you at a much lower price!
2. Buy buying & expecting it to go up, up & up one is creating a bubble. And that helps everyone, right? (see from seller’s -not the short seller- perspective, cause that’s why the seller sold you in the first place as it was fairly valued back then & many $$$ ago)
3. Selling upside calls and/or buying puts is bad. And so are bearish calls/puts strategies, cause you’re now scaring poor innocent stock holders who are holding the underlying. And that’s NOT fair, as my 7 year old often tells to her elder sister.
4. By buying, buying & buying again we are only looking for the ‘next fool’, right? And suddenly it’s a manipulated game, if we ever fail to find the ‘next fool’ to buy it at a higher price from us, when we want; I must add.
5. As to adding the value to the corporation by buying, when does it get revalued correctly or whose job is it? that is, after it’s been over inflated way too many times….like Yellow Media Corp – Goodwill on the books was in the range of billions!
I had it in my kids RESP from 13 all the way to high 6 and I finally parted my ways. I could be giving me just few pennies today.
6. That Tulip mania of 17th century (in Netherlands, I guess) should have continued till today and may be with just one tulip bulb we could buy the entire ‘lower Manhattan’ or whole of NY city!
Now let’s examine this from pure theory angle/side:
If there is anything like ‘efficient markets’ -seems these days there are more questions to that thesis, there were in the past and there will always be- then things get priced in properly with a balanced force.
Sir Isaac Newton’s 3rd law of motion applies here as well. And all the time, the things tend to move, right? Or else we would see the things stagnant, forever! Then what’s the point in investing?
Now picking the direction is up to all of us investors/traders, short or long term by going short or long.
Lowering the eps & revenue estimates by the company themselves in pre-earnings season and then beating those and claim on the conf. call “we exceeded the targets” is that fair? But often, they do get rewarded by those analysts…P.S. check their disclosures -in the fine print- i.e. if our eyes can focus there after staring at the screens all day!
Now if you’re seeing it as unfair, go short & if fair, go long simple.
There is a neutral strategy as well aka simply find something else that’s worth your money. Not everything is worth fighting as in the end we are all mere tiny investors and can get easily squashed by the market makers/primary dealers in a nanosecond. We can all justify later it’s unfair/fair…’price is truth’ eventually – unless you’re a big hedge fund with deep deep pockets & free access to the media
Markets will either reward one with a gain or punish one with a loss.
No one is prevented from putting ‘stops’ right?
So, why let things go beyond one’s emotions can ever handle?
If one is so passionate about their stock’s long/short position, then add to it more when it gets cheaper & feel it’s mispriced…why not? Since you/me see it right & markets wrong, correct?
Now I didn’t ever claim that I trade slw often let alone frequently. Last fall got slapped by slw -twice- (total 10k+ losses) and had to leave it aside. Accepted my ignorance & inability to predict the move on this POS (that’s how I felt), until yesterday. Today, markets proved me right. Tomorrow could be the opposite. So, I`m not the expert on slw. Hope you see my point. I will definitely give you my views when I take long/short shot at it. Take my word for it.
I would rather go to the ‘slw guru’ Michael (he never claimed this himself, but he has been more successful than me, so I title him that way with respect) for the advice/view before I pull the trigger. He is true to his views & his money only, and can’t guarantee it even to himself. I wish I could blame on him if I were to lose and claim his convertibles & vacation properties…or may be simply demand a free delicious lunch at his favourite Udipi restaurant as long as he flies me there 1st class
Now we can discuss this all day long + tobacco, liquor, gambling & then Guns/weapons sector
Some religions see that charging interest is bad & taking interest (profiting by lending) money is bad. Few years ago found out that there are places where they lend you money (in TO and many other cities all around the world) to buy a house free of charge/interest. Just one obligation – they need to simply know/feel convinced that you can pay tehm back in holy honesty. And it works very fine in such communities. Nothing wrong there either.
Your views are always correct on your investments as it’s your own hard earned money & so is mine, why argue after clarifying each other?
Hope you agree to this.
At the end, wish you can profit from your investments & recoup your losses.
Cheers!
May 8th, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Hi Slava,
Re your post 134
Opening a position means initiating a new play on whatever option ticker symbol you are interested in. Closing a position means selling a play (ticker symbol) that already exists in your account.
May 8th, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Oh my God, Eve.
you’re doing shorts now?
Welcome to the ‘notorious’ club…
Well, congrats & it’s a very correct step given the markets conditions.
Glad you listened & have already made some coins with this new tool of yours.
See? it’s not that scary as ‘they’ try to tell you everywhere…
Bravo!
.
Tawny,
re.#127
Thx for the info. there.
Do you know what level is he targetting in a short term for NG?
Will appreciate the answer, if you know it or subscribe to his letters.
Good night!
May 8th, 2012 at 7:51 pm
gmsa,
Yes, I’ve succumbed
figured, why not! as it sounds reasonable to keep hearing, “but that’s what MAKES a market – BOTH shorts AND longs are NEEDED to make a market!”. so, ok, I’ll do it then! So, did a small position of just 1000 shares – AND it went up almost every day after that to even hit $60 – and i was NEVER worried about it – as i KNEW it WOULD be coming down “eventually” as ALL things come down “eventually” 
– BUT, i knew i wanted to cover it before it reported as it so often beats – so, i didn’t want to be holding it into earnings. Ah well 
Thanks gmsa
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 7:53 pm
PS Rol lew and gmsa,
I also put in a short of KORS last week of 2000 shares at $48.40 BUT it only went that day to $48.25 – so, i didn’t get the fill. The next day, KORS went to $49.50 – and I never shorted it at that point – I guess i should have tried to short it again that day too
Would have been a ice trade down to $40 today 
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 7:59 pm
gmsa,
Re. 140
Thanks for sharing your view. I guess I come from an entrepremeurial background and I find at times the world of investing not as rewarding dur to its manipulation. I guess this is just a matter of being able to successfully trade your view.
May 8th, 2012 at 8:06 pm
Posted by Richard Croft on May 7, 2012 filed in Options MarketComment now »
When assessing the perils associated with covered and uncovered options, the financial industry has always acknowledged the risk reduction benefits of a covered position. You can see it in the risk levels as defined on option application forms where the industry designates uncovered options in the level 4 category (presumably requiring the highest level of knowledge and risk tolerance), while covered options are categorized as a level 2 strategy.
The risk metrics applied to the categories seems straightforward; you buy 100 shares of XYZ and sell one XYZ call the option is covered with risk and return clearly defined. Lower risk! Sell a call when you do not own the underlying interest is uncovered and the risk is unlimited.
Categorizing risk becomes more of a challenge when dealing with put options. The covered call is considered a lower risk bullish strategy. The put equivalent strategy from a risk and return perspective is the cash secured put.
For example; you own XYZ shares at $10 and sell the September 12.50 calls at $1.00. If the stock rises you profit, if it falls you lose. The maximum risk occurs if XYZ falls to zero resulting in a $9.00 per share loss ($10 purchase price less $1 premium = $9 net cost).
Now flip it to puts. The equivalent strategy is to sell the XYZ September 12.50 puts at $3.50. Creating an equivalent position requires the investor to set aside $12.50 in cash to secure the short put. The $3.50 premium received from the sale of the put is part of the $12.50 cash security which means that the investor’s out of pocket commitment is $9 per share. The maximum risk is $9 per share which would occur if XYZ falls to zero.
Here’s the rub; the equivalent positions are categorized very differently. The covered call is a level 2 strategy while the “uncovered” cash secured put is a level 4 strategy. There is logic to the distinction when you consider that there is no way to force the investor to maintain the cash position as security for the short put.
The real issue is how the industry categorizes covered puts which is usually as a level 2 strategy. But to “cover” a short put one has to be short the underlying interest which by definition implies unlimited risk. Being short the underlying interest protects you against a scenario in which the stock declines to zero but gives rise to an unlimited risk scenario should the market go higher.
The reality is that a short put is only “covered” in terms of defining risk and return when it is part of a spread where one holds a long put that expires at the same time or after the short put. Seemingly a lower risk alternative yet spreads are considered a level 3 strategy implying higher risk.
At a time when regulators and traders are pre-occupied with risk I find it interesting that we continue to put forth guidelines that misappropriate risk metrics. For investors it becomes a confidence issue because if regulators cannot articulate the risks inherent in exchange traded instruments and strategies what chance do we have that there is appropriate oversight on the more complex over the counter versions of risk products?
Just a thought!
————————————————————————————–
More reading on options
May 8th, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Eve
one easy way to short a stock is to simply short new offerings on a stock.
May 8th, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Slava,
I know you are just referring to the bmo may 58 calls as a for example only,
and I know that you were not going to buy that exact one, if any at all.
I know that all you were asking was what is buy to open, sell to open,
buy to close, sell to close – that Gene already answered.
Those calls expire in 10 days though, and with bmo at 56.39,
the 58 call is out of the money, and will go to zero pretty fast,
if bmo does not hurry up & put a move on up past 58 in the next 10 days.
So if you are leaning towards buying options, give yourself as much
time as you can afford, and it is safer to go with an in the money strike.
The odds are stacked against otm options, moreso those with not much time left.
———————————————————–
May 8th, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Tony,
Thank you for your suggestions. Bernake will speak tomorrow and it might help for a bounce in the gold stocks. I will either hedge or sell, but my timing tends not to be very good I have to admit. HFD – I agree and Larry Bergman thinks there is another 5-8% downside. I would say even more if the European banks get unglued which is highly possible. HVU – This one I am not crazy about being a triple and you get whipsawed most of the time. I will stick with VXX (2X). I believe at this stage that there is more downside with the US stock markets. I was personally looking at selling both HGU and SLW and I was not looking for a profit, just to cover without experiencing a loss. (I lost $$ already and too much)The whole picture changed overnight last Wednesday. I was actually watching very carefully the MA18 as this is something you mentioned a number of times and it was very clear on the charts. However, I am not quick enough on the trigger. Unfortunately, each time I set up a stop loss, it also gets triggered and the markets recover. 95% of the time. Since I was almost there, it would have been appropriate in retrospect.
Thanks for taking the time to propose some solutions. C’est grandement apprécié de ma part. J’espère que tu n’as pas pris mes commentaires comme une critique. J’y investis personnellement beaucoup de temps. Si cela s’avère en vain, je considère d’abandonner car je n’en retire aucune satisfaction. Je crois que dans quelques années les marchés vont capituler. Ce sera plus intéressant d’investir pour le long terme au lieu de se battre contre des monlins à vent. Je me sens comme Don Quichotte de la Mancha. J’espère avoir autant de panache. Vaut mieux le faire avec style si on est pour se battre. Je pense que j’ai besoin d’un cheval et d’une armure. Du moins, cela ajoutera du piquant à mes journées. Je pense que les voisins vont penser que j’ai perdu la raison.
Slava,
When you look at the combo HFD/HFU,compare it to HGD/HGD and this is exactly the same setup there was two months ago. You however catch the downtrend at an earlier stage. It could have been sooner but there is still quite a bit of potential downside to come. Good luck!
May 8th, 2012 at 8:43 pm
Hi Tony,
You must be happy you are mostly in cash. Did you buy any inverse etfs if you don’t mind me asking. As you are seeing +ve in hfd, can I have your outlook on RY-T. Thnks in advance
Rollew
Thanks for post 148.You said it better than I could have.
Cannuck,
You were right lat year saying markets will go up till march/apr this year.Any more forecast/stocks??
gmsa,
Now I know your secret with Michael.You bought slw.LOL
May 8th, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Rol Lew,
Re 131,
Thank you for your comments and your suggestion regarding puts. For the gold sector right now, as it is very oversold but the sentiment is still very bearish and given the strenght of the $US dollar could put more pressure on the sector, it makes a lot of sense. Please tell me how you would approach it in terms of duration and whether you would pick a strike price close to the market value at the time of purchase. I use to trade options many years ago, but I found it time consuming. It would however offer protection for long positions given the curent downside trend. The gold and silver sector ie pretty much the only long positions I consider for the time being. I was however way too early as you can appreciate. Tough luck! I will try to get out of it while limiting damages and revisit over the next little while when QE3 (or 4 for that matter) is on the table.
May 8th, 2012 at 8:56 pm
Gene and Rol Lew, thank you for your explanations..
So it looks like someone paid $0.40 for HGU $9 September 2012 call option and this is where the largest open interest is (albeit small). At least someone is expecting HGU move to $9+ by September. I can wait that long if it gets there
May 8th, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Eve
Thanks for the information. How are you picking up these levels? Is it just a visual evaluation of what you see on the charts with your experienced eye, or is there another way to come up with these levels?
Are some of these levels stronger than others? If so, how would you determine that?
Thanks again,
Brian
May 8th, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Kay,slava & holders of POT & G (HGU),
This might sound like music to your years
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/08/could-goldcorp-be-buffetts-next-big-buy/
May 8th, 2012 at 9:26 pm
“Gold’s weakness was exacerbated by “another one of those tsunamis of selling,” says John Howlett, division vice president with Mitsubishi International. “Supposedly upwards of 14,000 lots of gold were sold in the 5 minutes from 8:20 to 8:25–the old open-outcry opening time,” he says. “After the 7,500 that went on April 30, it may be safe to say that somebody’s system is telling them to abandon ship. And that somebody has some substantial volume to chuck around.” He cites two technically bearish items for gold: “the market is significantly through and closing belowthe 300-day moving average for the first break since 2008 and the market is also ‘under the cloud’ on the ichi moku chart for the first time since Q1 2009. The caveat on the second item is that it’s best on a weekly chart and it’s only Tuesday.” Meanwhile, a trendline back to November 2008 puts support in the area from $1,595 to $1,605, he adds. As of 2:10 p.m. EDT, Comex June gold was $34.40, or 2.1%, lower at $1,604.70 an ounce. ”
from kitco.com
May 8th, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Hi Brian/ON,
I’m looking at where the TSX found support in the last year or so on the chaerts – so, look at the price points on this WEEKLY chart of the TSX to see the lows it got to before it bounced up – 11,617 was from last August, 11,420 was from last Nov., and the others I just was able to guestimate from the lows i see on the charts from last Sept and dec. Here’s the weekly chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p29320565796
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 9:48 pm
I just noticed that exactly a week ago, on May 1st HGU was at $8.71.. $7.11 today..wow.. $35k difference in my case. How I wish I could go back!
May 8th, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Salut Martine. Je pense que NOUS AVONS besoin d’un cheval et d’une armure! It will get better! Not every trade can go the way we want it. Tomorrow is another day of opportunity. A demain.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:13 pm
Hi Kay,
Further to post 154 just remembered CND govt blocked takeover of POT in the past.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Rol lew
Why do I preach options but don’t trade them?
Simple as smart as I can be, I can be as dumb.
I tried my first option last september, and I encoutered one slight little problem
I can read the options but I don’t understand how to execute it.
what I don’t get is
what is a buy to open, sell to close, sell to open and buy to close all stands for.
damn I want to buy a stupid put what in buy a put have to do with open and close
I close the door when I leave and open it when I get back.
if you can to me this… tomorrow I will buy very low underapreciated calls.
or maybe I’ll do better, sell a put at a lower level the current price and buy a put even lower.
making sure I get in at a good price. and if I should be getting shares I can get out should it be a real dog.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:29 pm
Starting in reverse order:
Muntazir,
No I didnot go long on slw.
Actually, had this urge to short slw (revenge trade as Wayne puts it) and consulted Michael & learned that it’s too risky at that stage, Slava chimed in the same about risk/reward side and held it off until I just couldnot resist late yesterday. So I shorted slw & covered today with good profits…not huge but win over SLW finally, imagine! Hooray!!
Although, will have to take 10+ more successful shots like this to just make up for the losses on the same name.
As for lunch at Udipi & flying 1st class – will await for that call from Michael
Thx for posting comments by Richard Croft. I started listening to him re. options years ago even though didn’t understand much. I admire his views & thinking as much as I admire Derek Webb. Not to forget our resident options expert Rol Lew & yourself + lin + Gene.
cheers!
.
Martine,
Glad to see your reply back.
As they say “if you can’t beat them, join them” – in this business.
Can’t say it/do it if our home country/motherland were to come under attack then it’s “do or die” – never join them.
Have a good ride, Martine!
.
Eve,
Yeah with long positions mostly you get some time/2nd attempt if you miss the train 1st time. But with shorts, its a sudden move…no 2nd chances to go back. Last week as I was busy with work & missed shorting more EXK when it went above 9.40 now today it came down to 7.75 or something like that.
Stocks take stairs going up & elevator while coming down.
Have fun!
May 8th, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Tony,
re.#160
In a nut shell, here it is:
Since options are a contracts and rights only & not an obligation, you’ve to open a position as a start.
You can buy the position: ‘buy to open’ or ‘buy to close’
You can sell the position: ‘sell to open’ or ‘sell to close’
Now all thse 4 things could be ‘covered’ or ‘uncovered’
Make all the combinations as you can…all day all night.
You’re good to go.
Don’t let ‘them’ confuse you.
Now since Rol is the expert may be he can correct me as I’ve studied nothing formally or read a books, just applied my logic to analyse the options mystry. Rol has given good hints through his amazing analysis for dummies like me.
But I’m one lazy leaner, so need to put my money in the game & will learn quickly – fear of losing money if don’t learn fast/proper!
And I did it, I’ve experimented & seen how things work on all levels of options.
3/4 times won & 1/4 time lost…but lessons learned will stay with me and so are Rol’s tips.
hope this helps answer your question.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Tony,
furhter to #162
Stock float is a limited one, not infinite.
but I guess one can have lot more contracts as they are just the rights & most of these rights gets closed b4 they reach expiry. It’s purely a sentiment game on the underlying only further restricted by ‘time’ as in expiry period.
So price + time frame.
while just buy & hold person doesn’t care too much about time frame as long as it’s moving in their desired direction.
Rol Lew,
if you’ve a chance may be you can shed some light on how many contracts or options allowed if say, a co. has only 100 shares out as a float – as an example.
Will appreciate that reply as I’m not sure on this theory.
May 8th, 2012 at 10:54 pm
gmsa
Re #142 on NG Leibovit; I do not subscribe. It was simply a notation when he was advertising on Tech-Talk about his on-line seminar on the subject of volume reversals or something like that… no mention of where it would go. I did bring it up at that time with Wayne. Wish I knew how far… may be worthwhile to do some day trading on it…. personally, I do not have the energy.
Please tell me the markets will maintain the downtrend??
May 8th, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Looks like the markets are still trending down…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/overnight-markets-plunging
as they say, tho’ anything can happen!
May 8th, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Ana,
re.#130
Ana says “Be careful for a ‘buy the dip scheme’, I think we have all seen this before.”
Well one can do exactly that if, one was a seller at higher price! Isn’t that right?
See it from ‘short side’
Sell the rallies & buy the dips or at the extreme -ve sentiments.
True enough?
But if Money Managers or market makers want you to do that, then ‘beware’! RED FLAG!!
May 8th, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Tawny,
Thx for the source & knowledge of the NG heading.
As for your Q. I wrote earlier today
“gmsa Says:
May 8th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
I believe that this bounce is nothing but short covering bounce. If it continues 2moro, spx can go to 1375/1380 max.
Currency moves not agreeing to this $spx moves…but then again I will stand corrected if proven wrong. FED people are going to be speaking in next couple of days.”
Having said all that. I’ve no clue what has happened in the markets after 4pm. No after hours news/analysis I’ve seen/watched. So no new developments that I know of after 4pm or currency moves/overseas markets.
Just finished ‘spinning the wheel’. Phew!!
oh just remembered, 3 diff. feds are talking 2moro & ben on Thurs. Those MM telling that US is immune to the rest of the world & europe are no where to be seen.
Do you know where are they hiding?
Eyes are tired (15hrs on computers/screen – a regular day!)… want to sleep. now.
Good night.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:11 pm
gmsa
still giberish to me, so bare with me.
If I want to buy a call I buy to open and if I am lucky enough and price moves higher and I decide to sell my actual call at a profit, I simply sell to close.
I decide tomorrow I become bullish on BMO, and I decide to buy it at the open, and but not sure the bears won’t whack me, so I buy a put at 51$ so I buy to open if friday I BMO gets whacked to 32$ and I decide to exercise my right I do what? I sell to close or what want to buy a put I buy to open,
If in the mean time I decide to eventually sell my put to rolling it in the next 3months I would sell to close.
but if I trade a put spread, so I sell a put at one strike “sell to open” and buy to open the lower strike put. and when I decide to remove both options from the table I would buy back the put I sold so this would be “buy to close” and the put I bought I would “sell to close”.
so if I hedge a short I would do… Ok I am confused at this point. I think it would be sell to open.
you got to help me out here.
if I decide to remove my put
May 8th, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Hi again Brian/ON,
Ok, I just noticed the chart I sent you on the TSX is missing my indicators!! No idea what happened with that!!! So, I’m trying it again. Here’s the WEEKLY of the TSX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p43170119772
eve
May 8th, 2012 at 11:12 pm
tony,
Thanks for the input re shorting
will keep it in mind 
Eve
May 8th, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Tony,
Re# 160
Since I have been trading options since 1987, I will try to explain the process.
1. Buy to open. You are buying a call/put – you are opening a position. You are going “long” the call/put. This is the simplest strategy. You believe the stock will rise – buy the call; or fall – buy the put.
2. Sell to close. You are selling the call/put position that you originally purchased. You are “closing” out the position. This is the final step after buying to open the call/put position.
The following strategies occur when you sell a covered call/put. You take in premium by putting on these positions.This strategy is also practised by traders who open “naked” call/put positions, or “cash covered” positions.
3. Sell to open. You are “opening” a position by either selling a call/put to take in the premium. The premium is credited to your account. You have sold a call or a put to someone. You now have an open position.
4. Buy to close. In this case, you have sold a call/put to take in the premium. If the trade is going against you, you buy the call/put back that you originally sold. You are now buying the call/put back to close the position. If you are lucky enough, you let the options expire – taking in 100% premium.
There are numerous strategies associated with the above. “Rolling the contract” is a defensive strategy that many option traders use. But then it gets complicated.
The more sophisticated option traders sell options “in the money” – they are protected from the down/upside – yet manage to capture size premium.
Hope this helps!
May 8th, 2012 at 11:19 pm
You just gotta see this before bed – Buy the F…n dip you idiot — hilarious!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/btfd
May 8th, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Rol
What do you mean with
“Tony, hopefully when you have more time & the inclination,
you will develop this idea a bit more,”
May 8th, 2012 at 11:31 pm
Tawny,
I like your sense of humour! I have had many a laugh over this. This is the reason that I posted #130, hoping people would remember this little production.
“It’s a buy the dip scheme.”
May 8th, 2012 at 11:34 pm
Thx Wayne
It opened my mind.
the closing part was the confusing part in my brain it just never clicked.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:34 pm
Tony,
lol…couldnot resist to do ‘refresh’ on browser & here comes your q.:
My answer in brackets.
If I want to buy a call I buy to open and if I am lucky enough and price moves higher and I decide to sell my actual call at a profit, I simply sell to close. (yes & yes)
I decide tomorrow I become bullish on BMO, and I decide to buy it at the open (stocks you mean? or buying the call to open?), and but not sure the bears won’t whack me, so I buy a put at 51$ so I buy to open (yes, the put buy2open) if friday I BMO gets whacked to 32$ and I decide to exercise my right I do what? (ask your broker for the delivery of the underlying as you’re the buyer of the option/contract and the seller has to follow your wish, your broker will get you the delivery i.e. you excercised your right to sell at that price) I sell to close or what want to buy a put I buy to open,
If in the mean time I decide to eventually sell my put to rolling it in the next 3months I would sell to close.(that’s an another choice as opposed to asking your broker that you want to excercise the right to sell. Or here in this cae, you can simply do ‘sell to close’ on your puts aka cashing the profits in your pocket as they are going to be deep ITM as the underlying went from $51 to $32 ride, let’s not get into the IV, delta or the theta complications for now to keep it simple. Now if you want to roll it to the next month or few more months down the road -here it will be new position opening for next or next to next expiry-, it’s all up to you from the profits that you’ve got in your pocket – free to do what whatever you like. take a vacation, buy a boat etc. P.S.Don’t forget a nice chocolate bar for each of your sons.)
but if I trade a put spread, so I sell a put at one strike “sell to open” and buy to open the lower strike put. (limiting your profits -by spending more on prem.-but also the downside risk protection) and when I decide to remove both options from the table I would buy back the put I sold so this would be “buy to close” and the put I bought I would “sell to close”.(yes in my view)
so if I hedge a short I would do… Ok I am confused at this point. I think it would be sell to open. (if you’re short POT through straight stocks say at 50 but 2moro there could be a take over & you want to protect against that buy an upside call -OTM call. now you’re having it both ways….otm call is an insurance policy if things go against you, just like a fire iinsurance on your house! Make sure you have sufficient no. of contracts to protect your short position.)
you got to help me out here.
if I decide to remove my put(looks like your q. got cut here & you hit the ‘submit comment’ prematurely)
May 8th, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Wayne
If you short a stock how do you protect yourself from losing money do you buy a higher put or what
May 8th, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Wayne,
What are your quick thoughts on NG’s resitance/support levels & poss. the Thurs. inventory whisper nos. pl.?
Glad you’re here to confirm the options views.
I was going to suggest to Tony to ask Muntazir to verify the answer as I guess Rol has already gone to the bed.
Thx.
gmsa.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Tony,
re#177
read my reply, it’s there.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:46 pm
So, 1536 for gold?
May 8th, 2012 at 11:50 pm
Tony, Michael, Eve,
Can either of you please give me your thoughts on RSI.TO, GFS.TO (still good to short or stay away) and TCK.B.TO (will it bounce off bottom Keltner now)?
Thanks
KC
May 8th, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Eve,
What are your thoughts on UVXY as of today please?
KC
May 8th, 2012 at 11:54 pm
If you short a stock – the only solution you have is to buy a call offsetting your position.
Shorting BMO at 56.00 – you need to determine if you still want to short it if it goes higher by 5% to 58.00 – you buy a 58.00 call. It’s your decision – if you think that it can still decline – you stay short with the 58.00 call to protect yourself against the price if it goes higher.
If it moves lower – you gain on the short and lose the cost of the call. If it moves higher, you gain on the call offsetting your loss on the short.
I haven’t used this strategy – but I have seen it used by others on a volatile stock.
May 8th, 2012 at 11:56 pm
Ana,
1575/1530 levels. $bpgdm taking it on the chin.
Since oct.2008 today for the 1st time weekly GLD chart is broken (supporting uptrend line broken) 3 more days to go b4 we finalize that candle.
Can it do outside reversal for this week? Depends on 3 feds tomorrow & then mr. ben on thurs. – thin possibility.
Draghi & Ben will move together. Draghi didn’t budge last week.
So no QE3 signals this week or b4 mid/early june if you ask me.
What do you see & when?
May 9th, 2012 at 12:01 am
gmsa,
Sorry. I don’t trade Nasty, so I am unable to answer your question. But, I see that it has hit 2.40 – it must stay above 2.40 – next R is 2.60 which is where the 11 month downtrend appears. I read the other day on Bloomberg that total US storage capacity will be reached by Oct. if things don’t change on the demand side.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:04 am
#184
gmsa,
The “operation twist”,ends on June 30th so there will be no new program until after that time.
Gold is prensently trading at 1587.55.
I just drew in a tripple bottom for a line, to get to my estimation.
I thought that the markets were driven up so that the big boys could dump their shares at a higher price.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:11 am
Wayne,
Appreciate your honest & best input, this late night. I think it touched 2.46 or 2.45 today’s high.
Thx & have a good night.
.
Ana,
Whoa! now that’s the price of $gold?
Lol and while exk was jumping up late PM and I was shorting it wondering what if?
silver below 29. that’s fun!
Was telling Tawny, have to sleep now after 15 hrs on computers & just added another 1 hr.
thx & have a good night!
May 9th, 2012 at 12:12 am
Slava
I am sorry I have been harsh with you, but I did lose my temper more then once (not enough tho to punch the monitor otherwise I would need compensation
)
If you have learned anything from Ron/BC its the 20/50 train track and RSI am I right, Ok so the train track starts where ? once you get a cross of 20/50 you can do it even on a 10/20 or 9/18 your choice.
On BMO you got a 9/18 and 9/50 and 18/50 all in less then 2days between 9/18 and 18/50.
Now about RSI is where below 50 and what was Ron 1st rule on RSI if it aint above 50 you don’t buy. RSI 21, 14 and 7 are all below 50 worse then this RSI(2) is no where near 50.
Now where was 4MA vs Price today it simply tagged it, so what did mommy say go on you are safe.
last but not least look at AAPL, dec 27th 18/50 which lamborghini as a bull would you want a gallardo, and yesterday May the 8th 18/50 Polar bear just took a whack at it.
Mommy said it was ok for the price to continue as it
do you really think I would be buying tomorrow. BMO or any other bank stock if not short.
And finally,
rsi above 50 right
May 9th, 2012 at 12:16 am
man I really need a bigger box so I can see everything I write.
Oh damn I just saw the little lines at the bottom right, and there I can now make my text box bigger.
Now I see this.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:19 am
tony,
What is your best educated guess for the S$P?
HVU is completing a W formation.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:21 am
Thx wayne
Now we know how slava should hedge her shorts.
All this will be saved for future reference.
btw thx GMSA
May 9th, 2012 at 12:25 am
KC
tony Says:
May 8th, 2012 at 11:07 am
Young
TCK
I am totally sorry I just went through thursday blog, and I saw you posted a question to me and I missed it.
but noticed someone answered back to you with a 24$ outlook.
price will retrace at least 26$ of October to fill the low end of the tail.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:27 am
Tony,
She doesn’t have a trading plan, nor has the discipline to design and stick with one. She is an impulse trader.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:36 am
Wayne,
All the way from France, pour vous:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57V1ukdo5fM
“It was thought to cause madness,” perhaps that is why we are trading in this market!
May 9th, 2012 at 12:37 am
KC
RSI and GFS
RSI I’ve mentioned my toughts on fridays blog
it has a better chart then the sgg the etn that tracks sugar. (probably people to depressed so they are relying on sugar to stimulate emotions)
GFS
Since GFS is quite recent there is not to many MAs available.
Only support I see in the near future its at 3.86 if this fails 2.7 is where gfs will be headed next.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:48 am
Ana
Spx,
I have been saying spx should fall to the 200MA in the next coming months based on the fact that the 200MA was resistance back in november and december,
now we do have support at 100MA which was last seen back on dec 19th-20th.
only thing for the 100MA to be support as last time indicators should get above 50% mark as it did back in december but they aren’t not even close so I continue to think markets will come down this summer.
hope this answers your question.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:55 am
Thank you tony!
The “idea” of trading seems far easier than it is.
May 9th, 2012 at 1:06 am
Tony,
Thanks I’ll check those comments.
Would you recommend shorting GFS.TO at the 4MA and hope to pick up some change or dont touch it ?
KC