ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Wednesday May 9th
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 12 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to a spike in Spanish sovereign debt interest rates to over 6.0%.
First quarter earnings continue to pour in. Companies reporting since the close yesterday included Disney, AOL, Enbridge, Tim Horton’s, Dean Foods, Macy’s and Agrium.
Hershey (HSY $67.74) is expected to open higher after Argus upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy. Target is $78.
American International Group added $0.10 to $31.80 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Target was raised from $31 to $40.
Under Armour gained $0.82 to $93.50 after UBS upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Target price was raised from $100 to $105.
Technical Watch
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS) – $44.30 is expected to open higher after the company reported higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock is expected to break above resistance at $44.50 to reach an all-time high. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since last September. Seasonal influences currently are positive, but peak at the end of May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/clip_image00114.png "clip_image001[1]")
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image128.png "clip_image002[1]")
Agrium, Inc. (NYSE:AGU;TSE:AGU) – US$83.65 slipped 1.1% despite reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings. The stock has positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Resistance is at $$89.90. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average and just below its 20 day moving average at $86.44 and its 50 day moving average at $85.80. Short term momentum indicators are neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the middle of December. Seasonal influences currently are not positive. Seasonal influences turn positive in July. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock closer to its 200 day moving average at $79.39.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/clip_image00315.png "clip_image003[1]")
Agrium Inc. (TSE:AGU) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image501.png "clip_image004[1]")
Tim Hortons, Inc (NYSE:THI;TSE:THI) – US$57.13 is expected to open lower after reporting lower than consensus first quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock reached an all-time high last week. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index has been positive since mid-February. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $50.46.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/clip_image00515.png "clip_image005[1]")
Interesting Charts
Technical deterioration by major equity indices, sectors and commodities was significant yesterday:
The S&P 500 Index briefly broke support at 1,357.38 to complete a double top pattern.
The Russell 2000 Index briefly broke support at 783.56 to complete a head and shoulders pattern.
The NASDAQ Composite Index briefly broke support at 2,946.04 and 2,900.28.
The NYSE Composite Index briefly broke support to complete a head and shoulders pattern
The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia and Far East) Index and its related ETF briefly broke support at $51.65 to complete a modified head and shoulders pattern.
The Athens Index and its related ETF plunged below support at $12.70 to a low not seen since 1992.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index and its related ETF broke support at $41.07 to confirm an intermediate downtrend.
Weakest sectors included Materials and Semiconductors. Their ETFs broke key support levels.
Gold broke support at $1,613 to reach a five month low.
Tech Talk’s Weekly ETF Column
(Published yesterday at www.globeandmail.com )
Headline reads, “Bottom Fishing in Europe? Don’t do it yet”!
Following is a link to the column
Following is full text
European equity markets have been in turmoil during the past year. Where do they go from here and what Exchange Traded Funds are available?
Prospect for Europe are not encouraging. The S&P Europe 350 Index already has dropped 20.0 per cent from it high in May 2011. The MSCI EMU Index, that excludes participation in United Kingdom shares has plunged 29.5 per cent. Economic prospects in Europe continue to deteriorate. The United Kingdom, Italy and Greece recently re-entered a recession. Austerity programs launched by governments in the United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece are curtailing prospects for growth. Elections in France and Greece over the weekend have added to uncertainties.
On the charts, European equity markets have been underperformers during the past year. Their intermediate trend is down, their strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is negative and their short term momentum indicators are trending down. The following chart on iShares on the Europe 350 Index demonstrates:
Seasonal influences are about to turn negative. Seasonal influences on European equity markets are similar to seasonal influences on North American equity markets. Below is a 10 year seasonality chart on S&P Europe 350 Index showing its period of seasonal strength from near the end of October to the beginning of May.
Preferred strategy is to postpone investment in Europe until at least this fall when current economic, political, technical and seasonal uncertainties hopefully will have been resolved.
The easiest way for North American to invest in Europe, when the time is appropriate, is through a wide variety of Exchange Traded Funds. U.S. exchanges list 32 U.S. ETFs ranging from funds that hold a broad basket of European equity securities to funds that hold a narrower basket of securities in individual countries.
Three of the most actively traded broadly based European ETFs are the Vanguard MSCI European ETF (VGK $43.64), iShares, S&P Europe 350 Index Fund (IEV $35.38) and iShares MSCI EMU Index Fund (EZU $28.75). iShares Europe 350 Index Fund holds a basket of large cap European listed equities including equity securities listed in the United Kingdom that represent 36.6 per cent of the portfolio’s weight. The Vanguard MSCI European ETF also holds a basket of large cap European listed equities that includes securities based in the United Kingdom. The Vanguard ETF is more diversified than the iShares ETF and has a slightly lower Management Expense Ratio. iShares on the MSCI EMU Fund holds only securities that trade in Euros and does not hold securities based in the United Kingdom.
Individual country ETFs closely track the performance of well-known equity indices such as the London FT Index, Frankfurt DAX Index and the Paris CAC Index. Following is a list with their symbols:
Don Vialoux is the author of free daily reports on equity markets, sectors,
commodities and Exchange Traded Funds. . Daily reports are
available at http://www.timingthemarket.ca/. He is also a research analyst for
Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are his
personal views although they may be reflected in positions or transactions
in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management.
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Scotia downgrades nitrogen, upgrades potash”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/08/scotia-downgrades-nitrogen-upgrades-potash/
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Potash Corp./Saskatchewan Inc. (TSE:POT) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC May 8th 2012
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: AGU, DIS, THI
May 9th, 2012 at 7:46 am
OK Martine,
I said this yesterday in #131…….
” ” Look at GDX that has been causing so much grief recently.
from 46.50 to 42.00 in 7 days—– down 4.50 or 9.9%
from 48.30 to 42.00 in 18 days—– down 6.30 or 13%
from 50.60 to 42.00 in 25 days——- down 8.40 or 16.6%
Now looking back, how much pain would have been enough?
So 6% let’s say. If you really wanted to, you could limit your future
losses to 5 or 6 % on any trade, by hedging your longs with Puts.
Notice that it took just 25 days for all that carnage. ” ”
……………………………………..
So here are the details…
GDX closed at 42.17
Buy it at 42.17
Buy a June 42 Put. Closed @ 1.72/1.74 vol 2643 OI 5514 IV 34.
The IV is just a touch high, but not overly high, meaning these options
are not overpriced, which I guess is because GDX is a composite.
30% would be an ok number (for me anyways)
So you have spent 42.17 + 1.74 = 43.91 for your shares,
and you have protection from $42 down, for 38 days.
If within that time GDX goes to $15, what have you lost?
You can exercise your put at any time, i.e., give your shares
to that person who sold you the put, and get $42 per share from him.
So you spent 43.91, & you got back only 42.00. So you lost 1.91
1.91/43.91 = 4.35% loss. A loss yes, but a little one.
So there is really NO excuse to lose a LOT of money on any trade.
So take your little loss and try again.
But you gave yourself 38 days for GDX to go up by $1.91
And look at this……
That Jun 42 put cost 1.74 for 38 days, or .046 cents per day insurance.
But the Sept 44 put would cost 4.45 for 136 days, or 0.33 cents per day insurance.
This is a cheaper cost for longer insurance.
And what are you insuring with this?
Well you would be spending 42.17 + 4.45 = 46.62 for the position.
But with the 44 put you can get 44.00 back at any time for the next 136 days.
So your loss would be $2.62 or 5.6%
But you are giving GDX 4 months to go up by $4.45 for you to break even.
Better this, than risk being down 16% in 25 days, as in the above.
————————————-
And yes, it is so much work trading options, as there are so many things
to look at, especially so if you try to do some of everything ie., strategies.
…………………………………………………….
I think if you trade volatile stocks like GDX (not the leveraged etf’s,
those are tricky) then doing the above is good. I would not do it though
for things like bce or telus or great west life, which move so slowly.
I would look for strong stocks, with a good uptrend, that have a high average
true range, meaning it can move 6% in a month, or in 2 weeks, so it would
give you a good chance to get back your insurance (put) money.
Look at charts for MANH TFM ARBA IACI ALGN ASGN
CYBX DXPE SWI DDD COR FUL GNC RAX LNKD WWWW MGAM
I am just referring to the strong chart patterns.
I do not know if all of these have liquid options.
Everything has to fit with what you want – otherwise do not trade it.
(This is where much of the hard work comes in.)
And I just used GDX as an example of how to limit losses when
entering a trade. Right at this moment I would NOT be bullish on
GDX or anything related to gold. In reality, I was short GDX just last week,
which I posted about a couple times, to Gmsa.
May 9th, 2012 at 8:17 am
Rol Lew,
Thank you for taking the time to provide your comments. This is a very good example. Gold and silver are taking it on the chin again this morning. I expect my portfolio to suffer even more. I might hedge or sell and take the loss. This is not good as YTD I am in the red and this will add to my losses. I will see first if gold rebounds. There are many speakers who might turn the tide, but my hopes are not high for the moment. It was a bad trade from day one and I personally knew it. I should have exited last week and/or set up stop limit losses.
May 9th, 2012 at 9:29 am
Tony, Rol Lew, Wayne, thank you all for the options tutorial.
P.S. I’ve been much more disciplined with my investing efforts lately, besides hgu.
May 9th, 2012 at 9:44 am
Wow, I own a stock that just shot up over 6% on earnings news. KEY, and I own a whopping 50 shares
LOL I just dipped toe in a few divies to watch for better opp. to buymore.
May 9th, 2012 at 9:58 am
Tawny: Happy for you. Dividend is good.Has reached target $42 or is it higher?
May 9th, 2012 at 9:58 am
Hi Eve,
On Friday, I asked you this:
“Ana Says:
May 7th, 2012 at 1:47 am
Eve,
Is your uvwy and hvu competing the last “up” part of the w?”
Obviously it was far too late in the evening for you to see it. I am wondering if you have time today to glance at this.
Thank you in advance.
May 9th, 2012 at 10:00 am
Goldman and PIMCO are now saying that QE3 is highly possible..
May 9th, 2012 at 10:08 am
Slava,
How can QE3 be announced when Operation Twist is not over until June 30th?
May 9th, 2012 at 10:08 am
Slava
The Fed doesn’t actually have to really do an easing — all they need to do is spread a rumour!
May 9th, 2012 at 10:12 am
Ana and Tawny, here is the link:
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=27d643af-bdcd-4aea-81d2-b06f617a3799
May 9th, 2012 at 10:14 am
I’m holding my breath and hoping for a miracle – gold is at -$21 but barrick and goldcrop turned green. Can they stay green..
May 9th, 2012 at 10:15 am
I MUST re-post this again, for those that did not see it laszt night.
When you are fed up and need to laugh – short very funnyvideo on “Buy the F’n Dips” =
BTFD
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/btfd
May 9th, 2012 at 10:18 am
Wonder if by gold stocks turning up that means the price of bullion will follow or atleast stop going down atleast for a while. Down a tad on my AEM, FCX and POT, wonder if I should exit now. Appreciate comments, thanks.
May 9th, 2012 at 10:22 am
Kay,
Crude oil inventories coming out at 10:30 EST will be the next catalyst for the market. Inventories are the highest in 21 years.
May 9th, 2012 at 10:26 am
Slava: You realize the Fed is not a government institution. It is owned by Private Banks. If you look at the who’s who, you realize that it is one big ponzi scheme.
May 9th, 2012 at 10:28 am
There is no miracle , Slava, this sell off which we have expected it for very long time. Right!
May 9th, 2012 at 10:28 am
kay, I think it’s more about the fact that some of the gold stocks are currently priced the same as years ago when bullion was $700 or so.. so perhaps they are starting to reflect the fact that even if gold itself goes down more it’s already reflected in the stock prices.
May 9th, 2012 at 10:35 am
Ray, so by the sounds of it Goldman and PIMCO are communicating to the FED that QE3 is a must in June.. otherwise why would Bill Grossman put his reputation on the line?
May 9th, 2012 at 10:36 am
mick/inv, keltner channgels with setting 3 work very well. Thank you and Eve again for sharing this info with the rest of us.
May 9th, 2012 at 10:37 am
I almost sold HGU today around $6.83 .. had I actually proceeded with it an hour ago I’d be having an incredible migraine right now.
May 9th, 2012 at 10:38 am
Well, AEM is up nicely.
Slava wish you luck with HGU, hope this is the bottom.
Anyone buying HNU, hesitant with “H”?
May 9th, 2012 at 10:38 am
tony, do you still follow Gran Tierra?
May 9th, 2012 at 10:39 am
Slava and others holding HGU.TO:
I wrote this yesterday to Slava in an email – so, thought I’d share it here with the group:
ok, i “think” i may have some good news for you re hgu. i know that the main stocks in HGU are ABX and G – and the charts (for ABX AND for G) look like they are setting up an “inverse” h and shoulders pattern – with today’s low being the head – and IF that DOES play out, then it should have g.TO going back up from here to get to around $40/$41 and ABX going to around the same prices. so, that at least, i’m hoping, DOES play out as the chart is “suggesting” it should.
Eve
May 9th, 2012 at 10:43 am
Ray/K
Regarding ponzi scheme – when you have a little time for a break – check out video in No. 12
May 9th, 2012 at 10:43 am
Kay,
Recall last week when you asked me about AEM.TO that I told you it should stay relatively strong relative to ABX and G due to its good earnings report it recently gave. That has turned out to be the case – expect the same going forward. It came down to the mid keltner and has bounced off there. It should continue to remain strong relative to the others.
eve
May 9th, 2012 at 10:44 am
Good morning Eve, that email was pretty much the only thing which prevented me from hitting the sell button on HGU an hour ago
Will you be trading LNKD today? I missed covering my short this a.m. as it dropped to $108.
May 9th, 2012 at 10:44 am
Slava
Grossman has been buying Mortgage backed securities for awhile now, pre-thinking that will be where the Fed will put money – so he has a very vestedd interest!
May 9th, 2012 at 10:45 am
“Action” in fm.to is also very encouraging…
May 9th, 2012 at 10:50 am
Eve: I remember your comments on AEM, hope it trends up a little more and I can exit with a profit. As usual your comments are very meaningful. Do you see a turn around now in the market. I notice Tech Talk comments “Russel complete other side of shoulder” is it safe to buy IWM now, appreciate your comments.
May 9th, 2012 at 10:53 am
Eve, I mised buying PCLN this morning around $709.. it’s reporting earnings today after close and will probably go up for the rest of the day since results are expected to be very good.
May 9th, 2012 at 11:02 am
re LNKD:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/572341-explaining-an-unjustifiable-valuation-why-wall-street-is-incentivized-to-prop-up-linkedin
May 9th, 2012 at 11:07 am
Ana
post 197
If it were only a question of trading stocks and option had no influence on price action.
I would say yes it would be a lot easier just using TA but having a way to play stocks in 1000 different ways with options changes the game a whole lot if you read your option correctly you would be able to know where the HFs are putting their money.
Back when Buffets was a young ladd, it was was mostly fundies, and a pick at the good growing companies whose main objective was long term growth with the advent of the cyberspace, and the new crooks beit on wall st, or board of directors whos main objective is their own pockets no matter who they scam in the process.(enron, worldcom, the net bubble, housing bubble just to name a few)
Option Analysis is basically a fundi+Tech analysis but when earnings come around you put on new strategy to work to protect any gains you had.
TA can easily be seen as anybody just has to follow some simple rules has one MA crossed another MA or is there an MA that was seen as a resistance or support.
you can always get the help of simple indicators that become either positive or negative to give you that I fell comfortable here. or should I wait on the sidelines.
If you only rely on TA you should be fine more often then none. but to be sure a warning is to avoid entering a week prior to earnings, usually wait after earnings to make you decision but in the mean time if you see ta turning in your favor go for it.
As I mentioned to Slava last night look at
AAPL in dec 18/50 cross was good until yesterday.
AMZN had been trading sideways since the 18/50 cross occured back in february this was try to get in at the lows.
BNP.to since 18/50 cross back in dec its been a bear
so here are 3 simple example to follow and 18MA is usually a good indicator what not to break for the pattern to hold.
I’m more of a swing trader so I usually stay more then 1 day in a trade but having stop losses on is usally a good thing.
Last on trends you do get pull backs(bears trying to take control of a bull ride) or push ups (bulls trying to make a run for it in a bear ride) usually they don’t last that long.
Ana Finally the problem with most retail investors is they try to buy everything just like my 5 yr old at Toys R Us. What takes me 5min to go at the right aisle to shop for a gift takes me 2hours to get out of the store. because he wants to go in to every aisle of the store and buy everything even if he already owns the toy or its for babies.
And I have mentionned more then once I have 10 companies I trade in and out.
if the setup looks fine I go in if not I stay out. as simple as 1-2-3.
most of the time indicators get go bull or bear before you even get a cross of any sort so usually can get out at a small profit or small loss should the run be a false alarm but if you are right you get to make more then expected.
Ok I think this sums it up.
May 9th, 2012 at 11:09 am
Eve, I should have listend to you re LNKD.. it just took off like crazy.
May 9th, 2012 at 11:10 am
Hi kay. I would be reluctant to play HNU at this level, tho the chart is looking like it could go back to $14. Tomorrow is inventory day and I would think that the numbers will be bearish; nevertheless, HNU can move 10% in one day, especially on Thursdays. So $11.25 (4-day MA) would be a better entry, or just under $11 (9-day MA).
May 9th, 2012 at 11:14 am
Slava,
I hope you covered LNKD today as I told you yesterday you should (due to it going to $115 or $120 by Friday).
Eve
May 9th, 2012 at 11:17 am
RGR may be a good swing trade.. it hasn’t touched its 4day ma four days in a row, so perhaps today it will manage to move towards $50.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGR&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p66380677089
May 9th, 2012 at 11:17 am
Slava,
Oh sorry, hadn’t read the comments since my last posts I wrote today – just saw you wrote to me about LNKD and didn’t cover it this morn!! ARRGGHH!! Girl, what am I going to do with you!!
Maybe next week on Monday or Tuesday, it will go below $109 again – OR “maybe” it will tomorrow – I’m hoping for you hun.
Eve
May 9th, 2012 at 11:20 am
#27 Slava
FM.TO is doing pretty good today. At day high. Quickly came back to where I bought. Glad did not panic and sell but wish had added more.
May 9th, 2012 at 11:21 am
Michael: thanks, will not trade nat gas for now, maybe look to trade some gassy companies later. Trading nat gas gives me chest pain.
AEM in positive territory, FCX looks like it wants to and waiting for POT to turn up.
What a week, should have known better after 4 months of straight up market would turn. I really need some good luck to get back with the trend, I miss holding inverse bear etf for the downturn this week.
May 9th, 2012 at 11:26 am
Eve: AEM is up 3.92% wonder if I should exit now. Appreciate comments, thanks.
May 9th, 2012 at 11:26 am
Slava
GTE
no I sold it if you recall I bought it after you asked of it at 4.77 and sold it when it the day after it didn’t tag the 4MA. at 5.14.
May 9th, 2012 at 11:29 am
Kay,
for AEM.TO – there’s resistance at $39 level – first is at $39.11 and last is at $39.90 (with several in between there) – so, it might not be able to go much higher in the near term than in that $39 area.
Eve
May 9th, 2012 at 11:31 am
kay, perhaps sell half? If this is indeed a turnaround for senior gold stocks than AEM should be able to move higher in the days ahead..
May 9th, 2012 at 11:34 am
TSX turned positive briefly
May 9th, 2012 at 11:34 am
Eve and Slava:
Thanks, will place a stop limit, it just went down a some.
Europe recovered some of their losses, S and P has tested near 1342 today, wonder if this is the end of the correct…HOPEFULLY!
May 9th, 2012 at 12:02 pm
Kay,
re AEM.TO – remember the 4 day MA too – its at $38.12 on the DAILY chart – so, AEM shouldn’t get above $39 today as it would be too far from its 4 day MA on the DAILY chart.
eve
May 9th, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Does anyone know what’s happening with Osisko today? It’s down -4%, I can’t find any news.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Slava,
Options for LNKD has now changed from yesterday in that it is now showing that it may be going to $110 by this Friday – OR to $115 or $120 – BUT $110 is looking like the strongest bet as of right now (things could change again tomorrow OR even later today too!).
Eve
May 9th, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Thanks Eve.. I was reading the other day that once Facebook becomes public it may snatch LNKD’s direct competitor which would be very problematic for LNKD. Whitney Tilson is still short LNKD.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Eve, your abx and g predictions are truly amazing. I believe these two stocks are having the best day % wise in a long time. How did you spot that chart pattern? I don’t see it
May 9th, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Eve,
I am itching to sell SAP.TO I was hoping to see it get upto the 4MA but it does not seem likely. Do you think I should sell before end of trading today ?
Thanks
KC
May 9th, 2012 at 12:39 pm
#31.
tony,
Thank you for your very thorough response to my casual comment:
“The “idea” of trading seems far easier than it is.”
I agree that if you hold too many stocks, it is hard to focus and have an understanding of how the stock or etf patterns.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Martine,
As promised yesterday, I’m letting you know that I’m short slw now.
Best!
May 9th, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Eve
Thanks again for your comments last night, you are a big help. I didn’t see the revision until this morning on the chart you put out for me, i’m still on the steep end of the learning curve with regards to charting info
Brian
May 9th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
PCLN today .. from $707 to $733 and down to $715.. can you say volatile?
May 9th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
gmsa,
Thanks for that SLW.To note to Martine. Can I ask, if it goes against you, what indication, resistance will you cover the short, at what price?
I thought I saw some support within last 2 years around $26 area. What is your reason for shorting even now being so depeely oversold please?
KC
May 9th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
POW
Bought more at 24.27 and added to share bought yesterday. Long term hold.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Hi Slava. I just checked the US options on ABX, and there’s huge volume on the $40 May strike. There are also two gaps that could be filled, the higher gap being just above $40.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
KC,
read the following:
gmsa Says:
May 8th, 2012 at 3:31 pm
KC,
In downtrend sell the rallies & buy the supports or extreme dips.
Throw in any equity with major indices and you can play the game over & over.
Simple enough, you pick your own indicators etc.
I covered my slw & many other shorts with very nice profit$s!
Tomorrow is another day, as Ray-Kitchener & Wayne plays.
May 9th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
KC,
I wouldn’t sell SAP now as it is just dipping now into oversold on stochastics (stoch is at 18 and under 20 is oversold) AND on the bollinger band too – plus, it looks like a reversal candlestick is forming on it “thus far” for today – so, if the reversal cs does play out into the close, then the stock will close lower in price than $43.70 (between $43.40 to $43.70) and very shortly it should start going up again (due to it being just slightly oversold on stochastics).
BUT, the choice of course is up to you KC – I’m just saying how I’m viewing it on the chart
Eve
May 9th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Slava,
I wrote you a note on the pattern of ABX / G – but it’s awaiting moderation right now – so, hopefully it will get posted soon
Eve
May 9th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Brian/ON,
Glad i was able to help out with that
Eve
May 9th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Michael,
I wrote to Slava last night that ABX and G should be going up to around $40/$41 IF the inverse h and s pattern completes itself (wrote it in my comment awaiting moderation too
).
Thanks for checking the options on that Michael as I hadn’t done that myself
Eve
May 9th, 2012 at 1:02 pm
KC,
further to #58
In my PM scan I have @ 29 equities/etf that I watch.
24 are green 5 in red
highest % gainer is EDR/EXK – what changed that it jumped from 7.92 to 9.02?
Now have we not talked the same in the past few months about this?
Needless to say, I filled up bucket on short side again & again.
Since last sept. it has done one thing only – going down! And has helped me make some dough..
Will I be proven wrong this time?
I can very well be proven wrong, no one knows for sure, right?
So manage it the best I can…so that I don’t have to run for the diapers, lol
hope this helps.
May 9th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Eve, I hope you bought abx or g to capitalize on your knowledge
Thanks for the explanation, looking forward to reading it.
Michael, I noticed it too.. very large open interest, bid is now $0.29.. So someone is betting that abx will be above $40.29 very soon.
May 9th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
I bought GMCR back today.. did some research. Starbucks and Tata Global just reiterated joint business plans for its Kcups.
May 9th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Slava,
Ok, I’m going to cut my post into 2 posts. So, here was the first part:
Eve Says:
May 9th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Slava,
my predictions re ABX and g? Thanks hun but they are NOTHING as compared to my predictive “power” when it comes to LNKD (as I’ve given to you seeral times where it will go in price and then it goes right there LOL) – I wrote this TODAY to a friend of mine (he was wanting to trade LNKD – we had SEVERAL emails yesterday and on Monday about what LNKD tends to do in a day – here’s one email i sent him this morning (with the time supplied of the email sent):
Sent: Wednesday, May 09, 2012 11:03 AM
Subject: Re:
so, what did I write to you yesterday (and over the weekend) re lnkd? – I wrote this:
I said they make the dollar moves up until around 10 am (from a pullback that lasts until 935 am to 945 am) – then they will BOTTOM at around 1030 am to 1045 am – then they go up – until lunch time – and they languish “usually” – between noon to 2 for lunch
—————————————————
and thus far today, lnkd has done EXACTLY what I told you it does! check out a chart on yahoo finance – you can see it there! here it is on the 5 min chart from yahoo finance:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LNKD+Interactive#symbol=lnkd;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
check out the chart and the times underneath the chart of the bounces (up until around 945 to 10 am to $112 – after it had pulled back by 935 am to $108) and going down from around 10 am til 1030 am when it did its bounce up from $109.12 and is now at $112 again.
————————————–
BUT, I also wrote THIS to him too last night (and sent a reminder of it to him today too):
just remember though – as I told you over the weekend, things can change with how a stock performs for months on end. lnkd has performed the same way for about 3 to 4 months now (just as wprt did to) – BUT, that pattern can change at anytime – and so, when it does, it can no longer be relied upon to act as it’s been doing in the past several months (just like what occurred with wprt and pey.to as i had told you).
just remember that!
————————————-
So, until the “pattern” on LNKD changes, THAT is its daily pattern (BASICALLY
).
Now THAT is predictive baby
Thanks though Slava
May 9th, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Slava,
Here’s part 2 of that post:
Ok, re the pattern for ABX and G – here’s the pattern for GG (US side) (same with ABX) (you can see the patterns too on the Cdn side of G and ABX – I just used the US ones as the pattern is easier to see):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GG&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p21260750110
The pattern started around the beginning of April with that $46.47 price showing on the chart – and then you can see the left shoulder forming and then yesterday/ today, the head down – so, IF the pattern plays out, then the stock should be forming the right shoulder – which would take it back up to around $40/$41 where the left shoulder was finished forming and then dropped from there into the head. Do you see it now hun??
Eve
May 9th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Eve, thank you for both posts.. I can see you completing smth like Chartered Market technician designation and working on Bay st. (totally doable in your case if you wanted)
May 9th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Ana
re 51
The hard part of trading stocks is earnings and outlook.
if you allocate 10% of your portfolio in each of the 10 sectors and for each you simply buy one company out of the bunch you will be holding 10 companies at most.
as this website is more about seasonal investing timing your entry and exit in the right sector at the right time if you decide to buy oil company in its off season thats your mistake but if you do buy it when it should be blooming, and you pick the wrong stock you could get hammered.
Here is the best example the agriculture space, POT and MOS lagged the sector last year most of the season. I was in pot at 50 on a pull back in september it never made me money at that price but since I bought another trench at 42 I was able to capitalize on it
if you compare pot and mos vs agu, cf, tnh and mon you can clearly see that they all went over my first trench and I would have made money even if I kept the trade in the month of march.
Some etfs like dba, soil, dirt and zca.to seem to trade with pot and mos as price reflects the decline of both these stocks.
but if you look at moo and cow.to they reflect more the reality of the 4 others.
May 9th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Ana
reason why POT and MOS didn’t perform
POT primarialy they decide to stop producing in a mine for a few weeks.
MOS issued new shares.
these are catalyst that will slowly bring you to your knees.
May 9th, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Tony,
Looks like cmk.to is forming a W shape and today a reversal candlestick is forming.
May 9th, 2012 at 2:03 pm
#70.
tony,
I believe that the fertilizer industry will be more competitive in the future, thus bringing lower prices eventually for POT and AGU. BHP has moved into Saskatchewan and they are not part of the cartel. Now Rio Tinto and Yancoal is drilling is Saskatchewan for potash. So, with all of the additional competition, I think that in the long term prices will be coming down.
May 9th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
was i dreaming? thought i read a couple of weeks ago that suncor energy was a participant in a merger deal, but i cannot find such news in the various financial sites.
can someone please confirm? TIA
May 9th, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Ana
I maybe wrong but I heard it takes a few years(10 this is where I think i’m wrong)to build a functionning mine to extract potash.
so BHP and Rio Have a long way to go I do recall bhp buying athabasca potash back in 08 as had traded it successfully in a 4 month period before the takeover.
May 9th, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Novice investor,
Was that sunoco? or suncor?
I guess sunoco.
May 9th, 2012 at 2:24 pm
DD
well aren’t you happy you didn’t get in when you did, back on april 16th
as price was near 1.2 thats 40% better price for you.
May 9th, 2012 at 2:28 pm
#73
At the end of April there were talks about Sunoco-Carlyle JV – I’ve heard some people (even analysts on TV) mistakenly quoting it as Suncor deal – maybe that was it.
May 9th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
novice investor,
here it is
Energy Transfer Partners to Buy Sunoco for $5.3B
April 30, 2012
Energy Transfer Partners agreed to acquire Sunoco in a $5.3 billion deal that would create one of the largest and most diversified energy partnerships in the U.S. Liam Denning discusses the impact on the energy sector on Markets Hub. Photo: AP.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Ana,
So do you think that FED speak (today & tomorrow) is already baked in to the PM market with today’s profit taking by shorts (largely)?
May 9th, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Hey, everyone: Interesting times.
ECA: Hmmmmmmm. Is this 100% Nat Gas player looking better. Have a look.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ECA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91438775802&a=266591607
Have Fun! Gotta run again.
Frank.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:09 pm
74.
tony,
Of course, I must be wrong again.
My posts are apparently of little value here, so I am out.
Underwater today, just by refusing to take a profit.
I should know better, by now.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
gmsa,
Re. SLW
Already! Wow! Take your time. There’s no rush. Just kidding! Is it just a day trade which would make sense? Don’t forget they will release their results May 14, 2012. What are they going to look like? I have no idea but, being a royalty trust, their costs are very low. There is no production risk either. What’s your target? I am holding for now.
Eve,
I read your commnents re. ABX and G. What would be your assessment of SLW? I believe it could go to roughly $29 corresponding to MA18 and mid-keltner. Then, I will reconsider to hedge and/or sell. It looks like Greece is going to get its next tranche of funding which will help markets settle down for at least a few days. I don’t like where gold and slver are currently trading and how they are behaving, but positive market action today should help mitigate risk very short term.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Frank,
re.# 80 nice chart!
Not a good time to be long on this POS (no insult to your possible long position). Lots of dead bodies overhead…ready to see once they get their ‘buy’ price.
This would be an ideal short candidate here & on every point rise. Don’t forget to cover at @ 18 level.
.
Martine,
Earnings won’t matter much as the underlying (silver) is in severe stress. Good liquid co. pure in silver is a nice way to short silver commodity.
Short term trades of course just like many of my trades, day- few days etc.
Get little over 1k and I’m out…until the next bounce that is
But my SLW connections are not that great, so just experimenting with my luck, as you know
With these insane market, why would anyone keep any targets? Play the primary trend as long as you can.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Martine,
I think slv will have a pause @ 27.5 level & then will head to 22.5.
Now with all these craziness in the markets it can come at any time. SLV is lagging GLD as I’ve written many times, so don’t pin your hopes too much.
Besides, any currency printing indication will null all of the above.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:41 pm
FYI
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/sprott-berates-berkshires-buffoons-and-says-all-markets-are-manipulated
“All markets are manipulated” and that Central Banks (who are desperately trying to revive the dying system in every extreme monetary scheme possible) simply do not want to see the price of gold rising.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:42 pm
PCLN is reporting earnings after hours.. I was tempted to buy some call options before the close. Probably too risky plus even to my untrained eye they seem expensive.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Slava
You might want to do your options on paper first, it is easy to lose money, especially buying call options, you need to guess the trend correctly and get the right price. it is better to sell puts (assuming you have the correct strike price).
May 9th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Hi everyone: Just signed signed on. Done nothing today. I hope some of you made some quick profit. Tomorrow looks like another down day. I hope I am wrong.
Are you guys hanging on to FM TD waterhouse shows Short Term “hammer”. Says: The price may have reached the bottom of the recent downtrend, having recovered high up from a sharp decline for the session. The Hammer appears during a downtrend, displaying a long lower shadow with a small real body at the top of the range. The price may be developing a bottom and due for a reversal to the upside.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
mick, good idea
May 9th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
I’m still looking for news on Osisko as it’s down -8% right now on big volume for no reason.. they are reporting earnings tomorrow after the bell. Must be some kind of a leak.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
gmsa, so not much faith in NG/oil stocks? How about COG?
May 9th, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Will be watching PCLN from the sidelines.. will be curious to see which way it will go in the after hours.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:58 pm
frank,
pure gassy stock as hard as we try toc convince ourself has been performing better the other sectors.
and how often have I mentioned this sector and next US prez? at least three times.
May 9th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
frank
cog, crzo, eca since april 16th have been almost the same MACD H getting bars above 0 day in and day out.
May 9th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Tawny, thanks for # 85
May 9th, 2012 at 4:07 pm
Ana
every one as something to contribute to this blog.
is it a trade or an analysis or even an idea.
May 9th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Priceline went crazy in the last few minutes.. from $660 to $720 – that’s the range.
May 9th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Hi Slava. I take it that you covered your PCLN short?
May 9th, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Michael, yes, covered pcln before today. What do you think of COG? I shorted it today a bit prematurely by the looks of it.
May 9th, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Hi Slava. Encana may have been a better short term short since it’s way overbought, but I would be careful given that tomorrow is nasty gassy inventory numbers which should be bearish but traders seem to be ignoring these stats. Hopefully it will work out, but would be inclined to cover sometime tomorrow.
May 9th, 2012 at 6:09 pm
An analyst on Fast Money mentioned tomorrow commodites should turn around because they are so beaten up. Will have to wait and see!
May 9th, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Gmsa,
Thanks for your help and comments today on SLW. I shorted it on the US side this afternoon as well. If I’m not asking too much, Can you please keep me updated on our activity with your SLW short ? I am watching it closely as well.
Your humour is wonderful. Keeps things light hearted in this ruthless world.
thanks,
KC
May 9th, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Eve,
I’ve taken your advice on SAP.TO and held onto it for now. Hope it does’nt dip too much lower. I can be patient with it, but sometimes my trigger finger gets the better of me. lol
KC
May 9th, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Eve,
In #68, did you mean Reverse H&S or not ?
Thanks
KC
May 9th, 2012 at 9:58 pm
Michael, Eve or GMSA,
If you are able to, could you shed some TA on GIS-N, FTK-N and CIG-N ?
Thank you,
KC
May 9th, 2012 at 11:01 pm
SPX Bottom?
http://carlfutia.blogspot.ca/
May 9th, 2012 at 11:01 pm
KC,
Will let you know when I cover my SLW.
Now 3 that you’ve asked, I don’t follow any of these so possibly you can do better analysis yourself but here are my views:
GIS (ah the cereal maker) my kids won’t let me short this & I would not either cause – steady climber, hugging 40wk sma on wkly chrt, consumer staple group (?) so good through rough summer months, bail below 35, 3.2% div not bad but why buy for div. only & pay US withholding tax etc.?
CIG: Wayne’s fav. he is the expert on this – good chart, marginal div., looks like all in one utility stox but Brazil so not sure about the underlying funda. or related issues, purely from chrt perspective – good one, wait for a pull bk & buy, would chk the wkly chrt & buy @ 40ma there…..with a stop.
FTK – never heard of this – boy, now you’re making me sweat! – not sure what drives this so very much clueless as I don’t follow this sector at all. I better not say anything on this. If you closely follow this co. and the sector buddies of this co., go for it. I would feel like walking into a minefield. Married men generally have more than enough minefields on their hands. So I am not crazy for it.
May be try checking the expert views at stockchase dot com?
Hope I’ve caused no confusions with these explanations….lol.
Good night.
.
Slava,
I’m short COG, ECA & some other NG based ‘div. refugee’ stocks.
As wrote earlier to Frank, so many dead bodies out there waiting, hoping & praying for SELL once it hit their ‘buy’ price level.
May sound funny but this is the real foundation of support & resistance levels. NG is far from bottoming out.
Just make sure you don’t take full & overweight positions and don’t declare ‘all out war’ on them, my comrade! – HAVE to say this to you
May 9th, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Slava,
One thing I keep forgetting to write to you is this q. you asked (few days back) about overseas listing by a cdn. listed co. & the price movements there b4 our opening here in EST and vice versa.
During the ‘Uranium’ mania in 2006 (?) used to watch PDN’s Aussie listing & movements & then in Cdn. listing with volume, hype etc. – made good coins there.
At the sart of the ‘Arab Spring’ used to watch CEE.TO with it’s LSE listing & impacts on price movements etc.- used to trade then but with all the politics violence etc. decided to leave it after few profitable trades.
One has to develop the feel based on the movements (here & overseas) & each stock has it’s diff. characteristics. With time you can refine it, takes lot of time though. But then, there should be trending/sensible markets. Not this one we are in now.
Speaking of Egypt – do you still hold that promising -yet pathetic currency bill shredder- sdx.v?
May 10th, 2012 at 12:06 am
Irwin,
Glad you posted that link from Stewart Tomson. Just read it right now.
Couldn’t believe he said about $gold in INR with the chart….I was writing this exact same thing to someone here last week who said that she used to trade gold around the Diwali & wedding season time.
Thanks again!
May 10th, 2012 at 1:04 am
GMSA,
Thank you again for your comments and whatever the best you offered. I think I first heard about FTK from Ron Meisels. He likes the company.
KC
May 10th, 2012 at 1:08 am
gmsa,
With regard to minefields, most men walk a think line in those minefields. The scary part is however many ways you try to avoid those little beasts, one can never seem to step far enough away from them. At best, all we can hope for deflection of some fragments.
KC
May 10th, 2012 at 1:15 am
Eve, Gmsa,
Thoughts and TA on Visa please? seems like a lot of support around $116.30(?) , has’nt broken down through uptrend line from December? Do you think around $113 is a safer entry point or perhaps you expect it to fill the gap around 108 ?
Thanks
KC