Tech Talk for Monday May 14th 2012

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday May 14th

U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 11 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news that Greece failed to form a coalition government over the weekend. Interest rates in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy spiked on the news. European equity markets are down more than two percent in early trading.

The U.S. Dollar Index is stronger overnight on the news from Europe. Commodity prices have responded to strength in the U.S. Dollar by moving lower.

Weakness in Europe overcame encouraging news from China. The Peoples Bank of China reduced its reserve requirement ratio for China’s banks from 20.5% to 20.0%.

Magna International (MGA US$43.62) could open higher after Societe Generale upgraded the stock from Sell to Hold.

Tiffany (TIF $63.04) is expected to open lower after CLSA downgraded the stock from Buy to Outperform. Target was reduced from $95 to $73.

Nokia dropped another $0.14 to $3.06 after Societe Generale downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell.

JP Morgan fell another $0.21 to $36.75 after three senior officers of the firm are rumored to be leaving the company following news on Friday of the Bank’s unexpected $2 billion trading loss.

 

Technical Watch

Magna International Inc. (NYSE:MGA;TSE:MG.A) – US$43.62 could open higher after Societe Generale upgraded the stock from Sell to Hold. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average, but below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since end of February. Seasonal influences are positive until mid-July. Preferred strategy is to accumulate on weakness closer to its 200 day moving average at $39.65.

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Magna International Inc. (USA) (NYSE:MGA) Seasonal Chart

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Tiffany and Co. (NYSE:TIF) – $63.04 slipped after CLSA downgraded the stock from Buy to Outperform. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend recently changed to down on a break below support at $65.53. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-March. Seasonal influences peak at the end of May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to support at $58.36.

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Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF) Seasonal Chart

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Nokia Corp. (NYSE:NOK) – $3.06 fell 4.4% after Societe Generale downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the end of October. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.

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Mark Leibovit Updates

Mark Leibovit will be a guest on Fox Business News – 2 pm ET, May 15 out of their N.Y. studio.
——————————————–
TWITTER AND STOCKTWITS:
Don’t hesitate to check out my Twitter and Stocktwits account.
My Twitter account name is TheVolumeMan.
My Stocktwits account name is VolumeMan.
——————————————–
Check out my Blog – WALL STREET RAW
http://wallstreetraw.blogspot.com/

 

Economic News

April Retail Sales to be reported at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.8% in March. Ex Autos, Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.2% from a gain of 0.8% in March.

April Consumer Prices to be reported at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to be unchanged versus a gain of 0.3% in March. Ex Food and Energy, CPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in March.

The May Empire State Manufacturing Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to improve to 8.4 from 6.6 in April.

March Business Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.6% in February.

FOMC Meeting Minutes for April 25th are to be released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday.

April Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase to 680,000 from 654,000 in March.

April Industrial Production to be released at 9:15 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.5% versus no change in March.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 365,000 from 367,000 last week.

The May Philadelphia Fed Index to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to improve to 8.8 from 8.5 in April.

April Leading Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in March.

Canada’s April CPI to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in March.

 

Earnings News

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Equity Trends

The S&P 500 Index gave up 15.71 points (1.15%) last week. The Index is down 4.9% from its April 2nd high. Intermediate trend changed from up to down when the index broke support at 1,357.38 and completed a double top pattern. Implied downside risk is to 1292. The Index remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages and above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above its 50 day moving average fell from 41.40% to 35.40% last week. Percent continues to trend down.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above its 200 day moving average dropped from 75.40% to 70.60% last week. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) fell again last week from 1.87 to 1.40. The ratio remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks fell last week from 69.90% to 63.00% and remains below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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The Up/Down ratio for TSX stocks fell last week from 0.92 to (99/130=) 0.76 . The ratio continues to trend down.

Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks fell last week from 55.34% to 53.36% and remained below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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The TSX Composite Index dropped another 176.56 points (1.49%) last week. The Index is down 6.6% from its April 2nd high and 8.6% from its February 29th high. Intermediate trend is down. The Index has achieved its downside technical target based on its head and shoulders pattern. The Index remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 50 day moving average fell last week from 30.04% to 26.48%. Percent continues to trend down and is approaching oversold levels.

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Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 200 day moving average dropped last week from 42.29% to 39.53%. Percent remains in an intermediate down trend.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 217.67 points (1.67%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 12,710.56 and resistance is at 13,338.66. The Average remains below its 20 and 50 day moving average, but above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stock fell last week from 83.33% to 73.33% and remained below its 15 day moving average. Percent continue to trend down from an intermediate overbought level.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks fell last week from 58.49% to 55.00% and remained below its 15 day moving average. The Index continues to trend down from an intermediate overbought level.

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The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 22.52 points (0.76%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from up to down on a break below support at 2,946.04. The Index remains below its 20 and 50 day moving average, but above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.79 points (0.23%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from neutral to down when the Index fell below support at 783.56 and completed a head and shoulders pattern. The Index remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages, but remains above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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The Dow Jones Transportation Average gave up 86.94 points (1.66%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. Support is at 5,029.41 and resistance is at 5,390.11. The Average remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages, but remains below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.

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The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index fell 116.70 points (2.62%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from up to neutral when the Index fell below support at 4,234.44. Resistance is at 4,515.00. The Index fell below its 20 and 50 day moving averages, but remains above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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The Nikkei Average dropped 426.94 (4.55%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. The Average remains below its 20 and 50 day moving average and fell below its 200 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 147.03 points (2.33%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 2,242.34 and resistance is at 2,478.38. The Index remains above its 50 day moving average, but fell below its 20 moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from an overbought level. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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The London FT Index fell 79.54 points (1.41%), the Frankfurt DAX Index improved 18.46 points (0.28%) and the Paris CAC Index eased 32.20 points (1.02%) last week.

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The Athens Index plunged 77.90 points (11.29%) last week to reach levels not seen since 1992. Intermediate trend is down. The Index trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index added 0.76 last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 78.10 and resistance is at 81.78. The Index remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

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The Euro fell 1.68 (1.28%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 126.24 and resistance is at 134.86. The Euro remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

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The Canadian Dollar slipped 0.48 cents U.S. last week. Intermediate trend changed from up to neutral on a break below support at 99.56. The Canuck Buck trades below its 20 and 50 day moving average, but remains above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

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The Japanese Yen slipped 0.14 last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 118.93 and resistance starts at 127.48. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

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Commodities

The CRB Index fell 5.35 points (1.80%) last week reflecting strength in the U.S. Dollar Index. Intermediate trend changed from up to down when the Index broke support at 293.50 and 292.39. Resistance is at 326.02. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. The Index remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

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Gasoline dropped $0.05 per gallon (1.64%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Short term momentum indicators are trying to recover from oversold levels. Gasoline bounced from near its 200 day moving average, but remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

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Crude Oil lost another $3.00 per barrel (3.04%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $92.52. Crude remains below its 20 and 50 day moving average and fell below its 200 day moving average last week. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Natural Gas gained another $0.20 (8.73%) last week. Support is at $1.902 and resistance is at $2.844. Natural gas remains above its 20 and 50 day moving average, but remains below its 200 day moving average Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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The TSX Energy Index fell another 4.60 points (1.84%) last week and broke support at 243.00. Intermediate trend is down. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down. The Index remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

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Philadelphia Oil Services dropped another 6.39 points (2.87%). Trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Momentum is trending down.

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Gold lost another $60.60 per ounce (3.69%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Gold remains below its 20, 50 and 50 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.

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The AMEX Gold Bug Index gave up another 17.70 points (4.19%) last week to reach another two year low. The Index remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to gold remains negative.

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The TSX Gold Index fell another 12.79 points (4.27%) last week. The Index trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving average. Strength relative to gold remains negative.

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Silver dropped another $1.35 (4.46%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $26.15 and resistance is at $37.58. Silver continues to trade below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to gold remains negative. ‘Tis the season for silver to move lower!

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Platinum gave up another $50.40 per ounce (3.30%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. Platinum trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to gold remains negative.

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Copper gave up $0.09 per lb. (2.42%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $3.57 and resistance is forming at $3.86. Copper fell below its 20 day and 200 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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The TSX Metals and Mining Index dropped another 58.70 points (6.11%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. The Index remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Lumber slipped $2.48 (0.85%) last week. Lumber remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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The Grain ETN fell $2.38 (5.08%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from up to neutral on a break below $44.62 on Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.

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The Agriculture ETF lost another $1.61 (4.14%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from up to neutral on a break below support at $50.20. Units remain below their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Interest Rates

The yield on ten year Treasuries slipped again last week by 0.039%. Yield remains in a nine month trading range between 1.696% and 2.407% compliments of Operation Twist. Yield remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

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Conversely, the long term Treasury ETF gained $1.36 (1.15%) last week.

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Other Issues

The VIX Index gained another 0.73 (3.81%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to up on a break above resistance at 21.06 on Wednesday. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher.

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First quarter earnings reports in the U.S. are winding down. Approximately 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported to date with 62% beating consensus. Responses to reports have been consistent. Unless earnings substantially beat consensus, stock prices quickly came under pressure. Frequently, reports included a lowering of second quarter guidance. The focus this week is on the retail merchandiser sector.

Short term technical indicators show that most equity markets and sectors are deeply oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. A short term recovery is probable

Intermediate technical indicators show that most equity markets and sectors remain intermediate overbought and trending down implying that short term strength is an opportunity to reduce equity exposure.

Economic data this week is expected to be slightly positive relative to weak March numbers.

Weather continues to have an impact on equity markets until the end of the month. The warmest first quarter in the past 60 years gave the U.S. economy and stock market a boost. However, economic growth in the first quarter borrowed normal growth in the second quarter. Following is a chart from EquityClock.com that was shown as a modified version on Market Call Tonight on Friday:

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Macro events will continue to impact equity markets this week. The Eurogroup is meeting today. The G8 Summit starts and continues until May 22nd. The Eurozone first quarter GDP is released on Tuesday. French President-elect Hollande meets with German Chancellor Merkel on Tuesday. Yields on European sovereign debt will be watched closely.

U.S. equities are closely tracking their historic trend during a U.S. election year. Weakness continues until at least the end of May.

Cash on the sidelines remains substantial. Cash hordes increased following better than expected first quarter results. Corporate America is unlikely to commit major cash balances (estimated in excess of $1 trillion held by S&P 500 companies) until selection of the next U.S. president becomes apparent.

 

The Bottom Line

Equity markets have a history of moving lower from the beginning of April to at least the end of May during U.S. presidential years. Preferred strategy is to use short term strength (if any) to reduce equity exposure. Likely timing for an intermediate recovery is this summer following release of second quarter results. The market will let us know.

CSTA News

CSTA Oakville May Meeting

Sheridan College – Room S301 (in Oakville, Trafalgar campus)
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
07:00:00 PM – 08:00:00 PM

Presenter: Don Vialoux Research Analyst – Horizons Investment Management.

Registration Information

Event Type

Cost

Member

0.00

Non-Member 1st time attending

0.00

Non-Member

20.00

 

Don Vialoux on BNN Television on Friday

Following are links to the show:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip677652

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip677715

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip677716

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip677717

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip677718

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip677719

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip677721

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip677723

 

Tom Rogers’ Weekly Elliott Wave Blog

Following is a link:

http://www.tomrogers.net/signpost.htm

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base

Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:

 

Silver Futures (SI) Seasonal Chart

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FP Trading Desk Headline

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “U.S. equity outperformance unlikely to last”. Following is a link to the report:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/11/u-s-equity-outperformance-unlikely-to-last/

 

Editor’s Note: The TSX Composite has underperformed the S&P 500 Index since last September and has yet to show signs of a reversal. However, the TSX Composite Index has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 between now and the end of July. It’s worth watching.

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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC May 11th 2012

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Sponsored By...

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77 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday May 14th 2012”

  1. Rick Says:

    There appears to be a giant head and shoulders for XIU going back to 2010. Does not speak well for commodities. Any thoughts on how for down this can go?

  2. KC Says:

    Gmsa,

    Slw released earnings today. Are you still planning to hold onto your slw short?

    Thanks
    KC

  3. Fred Says:

    Bottom Line .. seasonal investing bears no resemblance to reality!

  4. Tard Says:

    Good morning all:
    Out this morning. Bring drop in CIG. We were talking about it here late last week. Hope nobody took a bite.
    TTYL

    Tard

  5. Slava Says:

    Good morning everyone, another ugly day in the markets, especially for the TSX.

    Any shorting ideas?

  6. Wayne Says:

    Tard,
    There was a 5:4 stock split in CIG.

  7. canuck2004 Says:

    Back from my little trip to Langford and Victoria for house hunting. Looks good, but have to tie up a few loose ends over here first. Have not filed for pension yet, trying to negotiate a buy out if I can. We will see…

    Still sitting on my core yield plays in Margin account. No trades for now but still on good size margin. Holding up fine… so far. Watching to see if things deteriorate more… which would prompt me to go to cash.

    I would avoid all commodities as with China slowing, they will be sold.

    RRSP is fine. I will be adding to an ETF, CSD as it is short term Corp bonds and I hold 2 long term corp bond ETF. Should compliment my other ETFs and lower the over all beta. Yield is fine.

    I may start a position in XSB in RRSP eventually as I am retiring this year. I need to get more defensive… long term. It’s too early yet as rates are nowhere near ready to move up… but I may buy a tiny position so I don’t forget about it.

    Since ITrade merged with ScotiaMcleod, buying ETFs has become very easy, no commissions so can add small amounts not possible with a 10 dollar trading fee…as one would need a larger amount of cash to buy effectively.

    I talked to a Scotia rep and he said this is the new trend, commission free… they make the income on the trailer fees.

  8. CJ Says:

    Slava #5 – Yeah you would do well shorting everything in my portfolio (sigh)

  9. Slava Says:

    Well, gold down -$22 yet gold stocks have staged a tremendous rally in the last 45 minutes, it’s an encouraging sign. I’m watching on the sidelines.

  10. Lin Says:

    Long GLD at current price stop 146…. :))

  11. CJ Says:

    Slava – I admire your new stance I am trying to adjust to present circumstances, wish I had gone into the opening today with lots of bears; TZA, VXX, FAZ, SPXU, SCO, SDS – all had big pops at the open. I think I will indulge near the end of the day hoping for the same tomorrow – Don says “down” frequently above – the carnage is not over :(

  12. Slava Says:

    I’m putting Suncor back on my watchlist.. too soon to buy but it’s definetely oversold. Any comments?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32160425455

  13. kam Says:

    Hi slava,
    I sold hgu and bought hgd at 14.02 for day trade anyone want to join?gdx might do lower highs and lower lows now for next few hours hopefully.
    kam

  14. Tawny Says:

    CJ

    Your post #8, made me sigh for you…. hope you aren’t holding too much on the long.

  15. Slava Says:

    Hi Kam, I’m staying on the sidelines.. can’t get a “feel” which way gold stocks will go. Also, looks like gold itself “wants” to recover a bit, off its lows for the day.

    P.S. Hard to believe that HGD is at $14.. last time it was on my watchlist it was just over $10.

  16. Tawny Says:

    Canuck

    Wondering if I can get your view on PGF which is at a 52 week low. Do you think they can maintain dividend? Is this time to add? I did sell some at $9.06 and at $8.63… time to buy back?

    BTW, I really miss the ocean – loved living on the Pacific Coast – but it is so expensive. I do not like the humidity in Ontario!

  17. Lin Says:

    CJ ,Tawny
    Hope you are doing well!

    Tawny
    These bear are so juice… Happy mother day to you !

  18. Anna/TO Says:

    #12

    Hi Slava – SU – plot 4/9/18 MA on chart – huh? Def not yet – why would you want to buy anything with chart that looks like triple diamond ski slope (since beg. of May)??? Might be very oversold and due for bounce but is it going to be today or some more down? Thought it’s time for “new Slava” – less gamble, more “sure”, steady set-ups ;) It’s OK to miss some initial gains – to me that’s better than guessing wrong and getting deeper in he hole. BTW congrats on your portfolio decision – that took lots of courage – good luck! :)

  19. CJ Says:

    Tawney #14

    Afraid I am Tawney, way too much; even lost on the bears if you can imagine!
    Still busy with clients, thought I would take a break today, but do not like what I see on the markets :( Biggest losers, ANR, CNQ.TO, POT.TO, and in my TFSA TCW.TO – those account for -$6,942.06 of red ink!

    I’m taking my lumps and learning the hard way. Even the Golden Arches are letting me down!

  20. Slava Says:

    Hi Anna, I wasn’t thinking of buying it now but I think fairly soon, I agree that we’ll need to see a turnaround in technicals before taking a plunge. Would love to buy it for $25 or so but I don’t think it will get that low in the next month or so.

    By the way, are you trading anything? Any set ups look good to you now from the long or short perspectives?

  21. kam Says:

    Slava,
    I understand.I know you sold lots of stocks on friday.Gold stocks have screwed my account too.Now I try to buy and sell hgu and hgd.It not easy to time them but eveen hgd is $14 but it can do that(go higher) as Don V. also thinks and say people to stay away from gold stocks.Now I daytrade but still buy hgu to keep overnight which is not that good idea as it usually loses very next day.
    Gold is going down alongside Euro and indian rupee is falling too so for people to buy gold in India is same or higher as even if it is falling is $USD. Which means it might go more lower in $ to hit buy point for Indians. Everything is possible. I never thought HND will hit $50+ even if I used to buy and make money on it a lots of times.
    kam

  22. kam Says:

    Hi all,
    My ADVFN streamer keep going off after few minutes and says “timed out” and they want me to “upgrade now”. Do Any of you guys get that too? how can that be fixed without paying them? clicking on more ads,lol.
    Thanks
    Kam

  23. Anna/TO Says:

    #19

    No problem Slava, I understand – tempted too – just trying to keep you on straight and narrow ;) Remember BBD last week? You made a very good call for day trade – got above 4 that day. But today fallen out of the bed again.. So it just depends what’s your time frame and how quick/disciplined you are with your entry/exits. Even SU could be traded today – off day’s low would be +$400 on 1K shares by now.
    Myself, sitting tight – have some HSD as insurance policy – will wait with any active trading until the markets resolve one way or the other – might be a while ;) If we really start going down will buy some HVU (or day trade it). For now pretty boring – sitting and watching and praying a bit too ;) ANY stock can be day traded – long or short – just look at trend & good daily swings (remember – you don’t want max gains, just want the good few inches on the yardstick), use MA’s, pivots, stop losses and you’re all set ;)

  24. canuck2004 Says:

    #16-Tawny

    PGF I own it in my RRSP and not trading it.

    For one thing, I bought it for yield. O&G are naturally volatile, in good times they increase the yield, in bad times they cut it. It goes with the territory.

    PGF is a simple O&G hold, they just pump it out and sell it….follows the price of O&G.

    NG is weak, so the NG part of all of these things will be weak. Oil has dropped recently, same thing there.

    If you don’t like the volatility, get out of it.

    I own it, and many others, I don’t worry about it. It’s only doing what it does….for the forever haul, it makes no difference…the cash flow is what’s important to me and the diversification away from financials and utilities. REITs and pipelines are my favorites, but I can’t have a portfolio with only those two sectors… accident waiting to happen if I do.

  25. CJ Says:

    Anna/TO #22 – The only “trends” I see are DOWN Anna LOL!
    Going back to work – at least that is profitable in a small way.

  26. Anna/TO Says:

    #22

    Crrection – that would be +1400$ on SU not 400$ – pretty good for couple of hours work, eh?

  27. canuck2004 Says:

    #16-Tawny

    I grew up in Ottawa, so I know all about the humidity. At least now days everyone has A/C… in my day, nobody had it… one had to go to a movie to get cool and breathe. Indoor malls had not been invented yet either.

    West Coast was always expensive… one just has to bite the bullet and move on.

  28. Paula/NS Says:

    I think I’ll just sit on cash today. I reluctantly sold my final two positions but would rather miss upside than take a huge loss. Sometimes it pays to wait.

  29. Anna/TO Says:

    #25

    Disregard this post pls – can’t figure my numbers today

  30. Slava Says:

    Copper down -$0.09 yet fcx is in the green, a good sign.

  31. Slava Says:

    Luckily I sold Osisko last Friday and today it’s down another -11%.. unbelievable.

  32. Slava Says:

    Osisko back to May 2009 prices.. so “buy and hold” for three years would have resulted in no gains, even a small loss.

  33. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    re: 31

    this is why it is important to have an entry/exit strategy and stick to it.

  34. Slava Says:

    Hey mick, another gorgeous day today.. Going to the beach this afternoon to catch some sun! Are you making any portfolio changes presently?

  35. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    Enjoy wreck, it should be nice down there. I am trying to buy pfe,two and t.to this morning, they haven’t dropped enough yet, maybe by the end of the day. Other than that, have not added to my portfolio, did take some profits a couple of weeks ago so have a bit of cash on hand. Enjoy your day, good to get away from the markets for a bit and relax.

  36. tony Says:

    slava

    fcx

    is only trading on the 4MA No reason to rejoyce here. only if u got in for the small pop today.

  37. Freddebuoy Says:

    Hi Slava…re #12. I like your coments regarding SU, espeicially “not yet”.

    But once O&G gets some legs back under itself, SU could be a buy. The analysts like it and it is still over its book value of $24.77. Not all oils can say that.

  38. Slava Says:

    tony, mick, others – question: if markets are 6-9 months forward looking and the outlook for gold is pretty good 6-9 months out given the issues with global monetary systems, how come there is no reflection of that yet in gold stocks?

  39. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    here is the chart for $gold, today it broke the main pivot point for the first time and also the 65ma, this does not bode well. Who knows what will happen in 6-9 months, there are enough concerns today.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p69315830062

  40. KC Says:

    Hi Mick,

    Are you buying PFE or TWO for short term or day trade? Currently seems overbought on daily and weekly charts. Nice run up from Oct, but just trying to figure our your logic.

    Thanks
    KC

  41. Slava Says:

    mick, it sounds like the level to watch for gold is Dec. 2011 low of $1521.80.. (interesting to note that back in Dec. 2011 when gold fell to this level Barrick and others were priced about 15% to 18% higher than they are right now).

  42. Slava Says:

    Kam, good call on hgd..

  43. tony Says:

    slava

    su

    i agree with you, the o&g stocks are undervalued just need a 18/50 bull cross

  44. Brian/ON Says:

    Tony – would that be your buy signal? the 18/50 cross? Is that a general bull cross, or have you defined that based on this particular stock? (SU) I trade this stock alot, and usually find that I sell at pretty good points, but I buy it too early

    Thanks,
    Brian

  45. Irwin Says:

    My REITs and PPL.TO are green.

    Feel like a beer … it MUST be 5 o’clock somewhere, eh? :)

  46. mick/nv Says:

    KC

    neither of these are overbought based on the rsi that I am looking at. TWO is not a volatile stock, I expect it to continue to rise without going above the 20,3 keltner, if it does then it will be overbought and I will take my profits. PFE, I am wanting to add to my holdings, it is more volatile, but is still in a nice upward trend and should go higher if nothing unforseen happens (I cannot predict that). While the markets are dropping, these 2 are holding up quite well and you are also being paid nicely. these are not for day trading (not the reason I am trying to buy), I will keep them until I get a sell signal on them. At the moment,they have not dropped to my bid price so have not added/bought them.

  47. tony Says:

    Brian

    here are a few charts you can look at
    aapl 18/50 december. and now may.
    JPM look at when you got a 18/50 bear cross had you gotten out at that point you would have been laughing on your way to the bank.

    I prefer 9/18 as you get more bang for your buck. and you can add rsi 14 or w%R
    as soon as it crosses above or below 0 you get in or out.

  48. Slava Says:

    mick, Trican is not having a good day at all… Hard to believe the kind of beating some of these stocks have been taking in the last 2.5 months.

  49. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    Yes, TCW.to , which I have unfortunately owned for a long time, has not done well at all. I am looking forward to the day that I can get rid of it. Buying this was one of the worst decisions i have made, and at that time I knew nothing about charts or applying stops, all fundamental analysis. Who knows when they will turn around, maybe next year.

  50. Slava Says:

    TSX is now at around -7% in two weeks.. that’s a lot for an overal index! Probably some of the declines are fueled by mutual funds redemptions.

  51. KC Says:

    Mick/NV,

    Thanks for that insight. I try to stay away from day trading. I prefer short term. Can I ask what you are willing to pay for PFE and TWO and what signal would you be looking for to exit the hold on those?

    Thanks
    KC

  52. tony Says:

    slava

    tsx -7%
    fxi -15% since march, in 08-09 fxi lead the market up and down.

    so as long as fxi lags you are better off on the sidelines.

  53. KC Says:

    Mick,

    I managed to pull off close to +20% on TCW.to in 2010. So glad I pulled the plug back then.

    KC

  54. Kam Says:

    Hi Slava,
    I sold 1/2 hgd at 14.26,too early.1/5 at 14.38 another 1/5 at 14.58 and holding 1/5 with stop at 14.40. Might sell it(99%chance) before close.I am focused at buying my hgu back which I sold at 7.10 this morning. Should I ?

  55. mick/nv Says:

    KC

    My bid on pfe for today was 22.43, TWO 10.37, they were the lows for the day(coincidence) so I must have put the bid in after that as I did not get it. I would sell when they go above the 20,3 keltner and are overbought on the rsi(14). both have been in upward trends for awhile, I see no reason technically why that would not continue. so unless something happens fundamentally that I cannot control and they go into a tailspin, I will hold them until that point. still have not picked them up, another 30 min left for today.

  56. Craig Says:

    Does anyone whom uses this Site follow Tuscany Drilling? I looked at the Results and looks like they just released quite Good Results BUT Company is being taken out behind the Woodshed. I understand everyhting goes down in a down Market but this one seems pretty ‘growthy’ unless I’m missing something and seems to be Good Value here??

  57. Slava Says:

    Kam, well, it’s discouraging to see that hgu is about to close at a multi-year low.. Goldcorp at -3.7% as I’m writing this. Perhaps tomorrow is a turnaround Tuesday?

  58. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    Aren’t you glad you dumped hgu last week along with osk, you saved yourself alot of money.

  59. tony Says:

    did someone leak grpn

    wa +17% today now over +30%

  60. Tawny Says:

    Canuck

    I haven’t been looking at the markets since my request to you earlier today… just want to say “thanks.” I don’t mind the volatility in O&G re PGF – just wondered if the dividend seems safe enough. I think I will wait a little before buying more PGF.

    I own Rio-Can – just a little… as the REITS are doing well in this market, I will add.

    ANYONE

    What other REITS are juicy?

  61. Tawny Says:

    Lin

    Just scanned through posts and saw your note. Nice to see you…. how are you?
    Yes, my bears are juicy… holding on to them.. wish I knew how far down this market can go…. don’t we all. :)

  62. Slava Says:

    mick, I sold only 1/2 of my hgu.. so continuing to lose money. Any hopes for gold stocks in the near term?

  63. Rol Lew Says:

    long? short ? or sidelines?

    FINVIZ NEW HIGHS 45
    (there is always a bull market somewhere)

    finviz new lows 188
    (today the bears are still in control)

    top losers 200
    top gainers 55
    …………………………..

    fd – short vale, bby, apol, el

    dollar strengh = commodity weakness = gold weakness
    china weakening = commodity weakness
    european contagion = gold strength (say what?!) sooner or later this has to happen…. but no signs of it on the gdx or gld charts.

  64. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    re: golds

    Not from what i can see, they seem to be hitting new lows every week. You may need to wait until the seasonality starts as per Don V., assuming seasonality kicks in this year. Do you still own K.to?

  65. Slava Says:

    mick, completely out of Kinross.. Should have bought hgd at $14.02 when Kam was buying it to hedge my hgu. Oh well.

  66. kam Says:

    Slava,
    I am pretty disappointed with gold stocks too but as Whiteside says at end of his videos “price is truth”.We have gone down a lot with worlds best goldminers but trend is down and every rally is sold. Hoping for them to turn back up have also taken us down to almost mid single digit in HGU.So if gdx acts like last wednesday and jumps up and now heading lower again so hgu is going nowhere soon.I don’t no where bottom is but is don’t sound like going up fast.so how long we can just hold it in hope.I am not bearish thats why I keep buying back hgu and never hold hgd overnight yet.
    So even today I sold last part of my hgd at $14.68 and bought hgu at 6.69 back.Fingers crossed for tomorrow. Everytime hgu and hgd hit 20.3.10 keltner channel they reverse sides so maybe hgu will go up tomorrow.

  67. Rol Lew Says:

    Tawney – Yep – I guess there is always a bull market somewhere
    I dont own any of these – I used to have ref last year.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XRE.TO,ZRE.TO,REF/UN.TO,REI/UN.TO,CWT/UN.TO,NPR/UN.TO,CAR/UN.TO,HR/UN.TO,AP/UN.TO,AX/UN.TO,MRT/UN.TO,CUF/UN.TO,|C|A12,26,9

  68. Martine Says:

    Kam,

    Good for you with HGD. I am still holding HGU. I was about to do the switch exactly like you did twice over the past three business days and I am stocked in the mud. I am just afraid to do it at the wrong time. Timing is everything and I don’t seem to be able to get it right lately. SLW is also in a downslide. Down $2. The past few days have been terrible.

  69. Martine Says:

    Slava,

    It took you a lot of courage. Good for you!

  70. Slava Says:

    Kam, now, of course, I wish I had sold all of my HGU last Friday, not 1/2.. oh well. Why can’t we travel back in time? I’d pick March 2 to sell everything.

  71. DD Says:

    Rol Lew,

    Check this out, this will show you all the TSX stocks making new 52 week lows.

    http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/gx.newhighlow_search?pi_industry=All&pi_exchange=T&pi_sort_col_high=name&pi_sort_high_dir=asc&pi_sort_col_low=name&pi_sort_low_dir=asc&pi_action=Go

  72. Rol Lew Says:

    DD – Yes – looks like reits are making the new highs on the TSE,
    while oils and golds are making the new lows.

    This will reverse of course…..timing is everything.

    XIU-T turned on a dime in nov & dec. It’s now down to
    that level again. So what will be the catalyst for recent
    history to repeat itself? If you are short now, do not get
    too comfortable, the turn will be sudden, I would betcha.

  73. canuck2004 Says:

    #60-Tawny

    All trusts IPOd initially at 10 bucks.

    For example, I’ve owned ARX for many years in my RRSP, since shortly after it IPOd… when it dropped to mid single digit, if added all the way to 19ish, sitting pat since then. PGF I’ve owned off and on…ERF I’ve owned forever…

    I did own RIOCAN for many years, same thing, from shortly after it IPOd…was the first REIT in Canada. The yield was 10ish I think… low 5% a few years ago, and I think it was in the single digits as well…I sold it to buy something else with more mojo… hasn’t done much since. Too big, slow growth. Great name tho…

    I’m not buying REITS now, had a great run with them past 2 years…as the spread between the Canada 10 year bond and the REIT yields was huge, so buying OP.

  74. Bob Says:

    canuck2004

    take a look at CFX.to … bought little bits a few weeks ago, not getting hammered, good yield and waiting for us housing recovery… let me know what you think ……

    anyone stepping onto BNK.to

  75. canuck2004 Says:

    CFX

    IMO is not appropriate for an RRSP… way too volatile. Totally dependant on pulp prices…. and that’s always a boom and bust cycle…. very deep cycle commodity.

    You can trade tho, but watch out….

  76. DKW Says:

    Hi Canuck

    Nice to see you back from your trip, sure missed your posts. A while back you added FIE.to to your RRSP, are you still adding to this ETF. I bought just a few shares and wondering if I should continue adding monthly. Also, are you adding to any of your o&g stocks? Just not sure if I should add more here or wait for a few months. These stocks have taken such a beating lately.

    Thanks

  77. Slava Says:

    I’d like to ask for an opinion on KORS. If $40 support doesn’t hold, is it likely that the stock will close the gap from Feb. 13 of around $33+?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KORS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46482050964

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