Tech Talk for Wednesday May 23rd 2012

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday May 23rd

U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 10 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to concerns that a meeting tonight with European leaders today will not reach a solution on the Greek sovereign debt crisis. European equity indices are down an average of 2.0%.

Canadian March Retail Sales were slightly better than expected. Consensus was a gain of 0.3%. Actual was an increase of 0.4%. Warmer-than-usual weather in March contributed to the increase.

Canadian April Leading Economic Indicators were in line with expectations. Consensus was a gain of 0.3%. Actual was a gain of 0.3%.

Quarterly results released overnight were mixed. Reporting companies include Toll Brothers, Hormel, Zale, Dell, American Eagle Outfitters, CAE and Bank of Montreal. Bank of Montreal and CAE reported higher than consensus quarterly earnings.

Blackstone Group added $0.07 to $12.06 after Sterne Agee upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Blackstone group announced purchase of the Motel 6 hotel chain.

Starbucks added $0.41 to $53.78 after Bank of America/Merrill upgraded the stock and increased its target price from $65 to $68.

Facebook added $0.49 to $31.49 after Needham initiated coverage with a Buy rating. Target is $40.

NASDAQ OMX is expected to open lower after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. Target was reduced from $29 to $25.

 

Technical Watch

NASDAQ OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ:NDAQ) – $22.32 is expected to open lower after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. Target was reduced from $29 to $25. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-November. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.

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Blackstone Group LP (NYSE:BX) – $12.06 added 0.6% after Sterne Agee upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Also, Blackstone announced purchase of the Motel 6 hotel chain. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the end of January. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.

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CAE, Inc. (TSX: CAE) – $10.31 Cdn. is expected to open higher after releasing better than expected fiscal fourth quarter earnings. The stock has a mixed, but improving technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $9.85 and resistance is at $10.81. However, the stock moved above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages on Friday, short term momentum indicators are oversold and bottoming and strength relative to the TSX Composite has been positive since mid-March. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.

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CAE, Inc. (TSE:CAE) Seasonal Chart

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Interesting Charts

Interesting technical action yesterday! Broadly based U.S. equity indices were up about 0.5% for most of the day. Selected U.S. equity indices and their ETFs responded favourably (e.g. RSP, the equally weighted S&P 500 ETF).

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However, at 3:00 PM EDT, former Greek Prime Minister Luca Papendemos said preparations for Greece’s exit from the Eurozone are being considered. The comment potentially was a scare tactic prior to the Europe’s leaders meeting in Brussels later today. Equity indices quickly moved lower on the news and briefly were down approximately 0.5%. Notably weaker on the news on higher-than-average volume was the Greek ETF.

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The U.S. Dollar Index and its related ETF moved higher on the news and the Euro moved lower.

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Near the close, the Euro recovered slightly and the U.S. Dollar weakened slightly. Equity indices recovered to near break-even levels.

After the close, Dell reported lower than expected second quarter earnings and revenues and lowered guidance. The stock fell 11% to $13.38 after the close and broke intermediate support levels.

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Tech Talk’s Weekly ETF Column

(Published yesterday at www.globeandmail.com )

Headline reads, “Canadian banks: Don’t rush to buy them”. Following is a link to the report:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/etfs/don-vialoux/canadian-banks-dont-rush-to-buy-them/article2439730/

Following is full text:

A word of caution on Canada’s bank stocks and related Exchange Traded Funds! The period of below average seasonal strength for the Canadian Bank sector arrived earlier than usual this year. Equityclock.com shows that the better of two periods of seasonal strength each year for Canada’s financial service stocks is between the last week in February and the last week in May. Average return during the past nine periods was 8.5 per cent plus a dividend. A period of under-performance appears from the last week in May to the last week in August and has generated an average return of 0% plus a dividend.

This year, the period of seasonal strength from the last week in February to the last week in May noted in our February 27th column started well, but ended badly. From February 24th to March 27th the Index gained 6.6 per cent. However, several events dampened the outlook for the sector thereafter including concerns about deteriorating economic and financial conditions in Europe, a slowdown in economic growth in the U.S. and China, declining industrial commodity prices and warnings by the Bank of Canada and Canada’s Finance Minister about excessive use of credit by Canadian consumers.

On the charts, the sector developed a negative technical profile after the end of March. The TSX Financial Services Index peaked on March 27th at 190.51, broke a key support at 181.02 at the beginning of May and established an intermediate downtrend. The Index currently is down 10.8 per cent from its March 27th peak. The Index also moved below its 20 and 50 day moving averages and broke below its 200 day moving average last week. Short term momentum indicators are deeply oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index turned negative in mid-April.

Earnings prospects are mildly encouraging. Canada’s top six banks are scheduled to release fiscal second quarter earnings for the period ended April 30th starting this Wednesday. Consensus estimates show an average gain on a year-over-year basis of 8.0 per cent. Fiscal second quarter consensus estimates and expected report dates are as follow:

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* Source: Zacks Investment Research

Prospects for fiscal third quarter results also are mildly encouraging. Consensus estimates show an average earnings gain on a year-over-year basis of 8.1 per cent.

Preferred strategy is to wait to add to positions until the sector passes through its current period of seasonal under-performance and until technical signs of an intermediate bottom are achieved.

Canadian investors have a wide variety of Exchange Traded Funds that trade mainly on their bank content.

Best known and most actively traded ETF in the sector is iShares S&P/TSX Capped Financial Services Index Fund (XFN $21.34). Weight of the banks in the Index is 74.4 per cent. The fund holds 25 securities. Largest holdings in the fund in order of significance are Royal Bank, Toronto Dominion, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. Management expense ratio is 0.58 per cent.

iShares also offers the Equity Weight Banc and Lifeco ETF (CEW $6.53) The ETF holds Canada’s top six banks and top four insurance companies. Positions are rebalanced semi-annually. The banks represent 60 per cent of the weight in the fund. Management expense ratio is 0.61 per cent.

BMO Capital offers the BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Banks Index ETF (ZEB $16.43). The Index is equally weighted in Canada top six banks: Royal Bank, Toronto Dominion, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Bank of Montreal and National Bank. Management expense ratio is 0.55 percent.

Horizons offers two leveraged products based on the daily performance of the S&P/TSX Capped Financial Services Index. The Horizons S&P/TSX Capped Financial Bull + ETF (HFU $10.29) is designed to realize twice the daily upside return on the Index. The Horizons S&P/TSX Capped Financial Bear + ETF (HFD $7.67) is designed to realize twice the daily downside return on the Index. Management expense ratio is 1.15 percent.

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Don Vialoux is author of free daily reports on equities, sectors, commodities and Exchange Traded Funds. Reports are available at www.timingthemarket.ca. Don Vialoux also is an analyst at Horizons Investment Management offering research on Horizons Seasonal Rotation Exchange Traded Fund (HAC). Opinions in this report are of the author are not the opinion of Horizons Investment Management.

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Technology Sector Seasonal Chart

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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC May 22nd 2012

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93 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday May 23rd 2012”

  1. lrm Says:

    Dear Moderator,

    Every day this forum has the warning:

    Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum: An error has occurred, which probably means the feed is down. Try again later.

    This warning is immediately above the Leave a Reply area. Can you fix this please!?

  2. tony Says:

    this is the only discussion of the day…

    concern about the feed being down.

  3. Rol Lew Says:

    KC – re your #95 from May 22 – The FlyPaper Channel

    Try using a bollinger or a keltner, with high values for
    the parameters, 80 for the period and .28 std dev (60 min chart)
    or 80 & 1.25 on the keltner. Vary them until you get something
    you like.

  4. tony Says:

    Hummm??? Think Slava is hard at work to recoup her losses

    you go girl don’t give up, you’ll get back to even I know it. :)

  5. Rol Lew Says:

    day trading made simple…….. say what?

    http://www.tradethemarkets.com/public/John-and-Markus-Webinar-52212.cfm

  6. gmsa Says:

    Rol Lew & KC,
    re.#3 & yesterday’s #95
    I would say:
    “Enjoy the mangoes while you get to eat, don’t bother counting the trees”

    Rol,
    If you’re bearish on CMG, how would you play it?
    I’ve outright short on cmg shares as well as the put purchase @ near the money for next month expiry.
    Any ideas, pl.?
    thx.

  7. gmsa Says:

    What happens when the Central bankers in Brazil, India can’t simply buy enough of their own currencies to put the floor?
    What happens to those seasonal Gold bulls when the largest Gold buyer in the world has way too high prices in their own currencies?
    What happens when the RRR cut by China still can’t help those collateral on $copper?
    While Spanish & Greeks pull money out of their own banks & try hiding under $USD
    USD well over 82, is 88 the next target?
    Fundamentals Trump the TA, as always ;)
    Go DXY Go!

  8. Slava Says:

    Good morning tony, .. I was in DUST for a bit (not long enough, only made $350 and left over $1k on the table).. I bought RGR yesterday and down over $1k on it right now. I don’t really know what to trade today.. back to work tomorrow.

    Sure glad I’m not holding hgu on a day like today.

  9. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    How can you be down $1k on rgr when your stop rule is $300?

  10. tony Says:

    slava

    RGR

    aren’t you shorting it since the you had a 9/18 bear, or better yet 18/50 bear.

    you could easily short it to 35$

  11. Tawny Says:

    gmsa

    Finally, my attention to Macro events is working in my favour… making up for my losses as the market goes down. Wish I could be a fly on the wall at the EU xummit today!
    So far, no news out that I can find; good or bad. Watching Zero Hedge as they are fast in getting info out. I am Playing with fear or is it fire? HVU, UVXY, so far so good!
    A good news announcement, even if it is BS, could turn everything around. Not sure what to do (I have so much other stuff but here I sit glued).

  12. Slava Says:

    mick, stop loss was not triggered yesterday.. it expired and then this morning the stock fell quickly after opening as I was watching other stocks.

    tony, do you really think it will go down all the way to $35? I’m seeing good support between $39-$42 going back to Jan-March time frame.

  13. gmsa Says:

    Hey Tawny,
    Your proper attention to the gardening is paying off!
    You’ve finally learned how to reap profits by planting seeds at the right time via those bear levered ETFs.
    Good going!

  14. Tawny Says:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eurusd-plunges-21-month-lows

    gmsa – above is especially for you – but you probably alread know as I know you are following this closely ;)

  15. Slava Says:

    My two new favorite daytrading investment vehicles are DUST and NUGT.. but I already mentioned them yesterday.

  16. Slava Says:

    Encouraging action in gold stocks.. gold itself is at -$36 yet barrick is flat and goldcorp is even slightly in the green! What to make of it?

  17. canuck2004 Says:

    TSX: if we stay above the previous low established earlier this week, we’ll be fine. Seems like we have some support in here.

    Of course, one cannot guard against exogenous factors.

  18. tony Says:

    Slava

    its not a matter of months but weeks at best.

    if wrong and decides to turn on you,the 4MA is what 40.40 so you exit at 40.50 is your exit. from 39.2 your loss would be around 3.3%

  19. Tawny Says:

    Slava

    Watching Euro News for info on Summit etc. Found this, esp. for you… when you have 2 minutes – the 2nd part is best.

    We also think that sometimes images need no explanation or commentary, which is why we created No Comment and now No Comment TV: to show the world from a different angle…

    http://www.euronews.com/nocomment/2012/05/22/grannies-to-represent-russia-in-2012-eurovision-song-contest/

  20. Slava Says:

    Hi Wayne, did Ron/BC convert a bunch of Cdn $ int USD a couple of weeks ago? I bet he did (or bought USD index).

  21. Tawny Says:

    Canuck Re #17

    Whiteside says the same thing and applies to S&P also… staying above last week’s lows and if a double bottom is established that will be bullish.

    Problem is it is all about exogenous events – totally global, not just Europe which is the most imminent – problem, that is.

  22. Rol Lew Says:

    If I was bearish on CMG ………..

    Most likely just long puts like you have done, or a bear put spread.
    It’s trading at 395 today. So would you expect that in 14 days it will
    get down to 385? That would be 2.5% down from here, by June 6th.

    June options expire Jun 15th. Jun 6th is right in the
    heart of rapid time decay zone for OTM’s, so I would look at the
    July 20th expiration, which is 58 days away. (I do not believe it
    is a great policy to BUY near term OTM options – too risky)

    The july 385 P is 19.00 / 19.40 – kind of pricey, so I would hedge it,
    by selling the Jul 375 P, trading at 15.40 / 15.80 today.

    I do not like these wide bid/ask ranges, so I would try to get
    better fills, say @ 3.60 net, just letting it sit there, for the day.

    The spread I am buying is 385 – 375 wide, so $10.
    You are paying 3.60. So the most you can make is 6.40,
    which would be 177%, if CMG co-operates, and falls to 385
    by Jul 20th.
    BUT the trade will be closed as soon as it
    shows a reasonable profit, maybe even by mid Jun.
    “Reasonable” would be up to you to define.

    I would also see if it is feasible to get some help in paying
    the 3.60. For example, sell the sept 450C @ 11.50/ 12.10
    and buy the Sept 460 C @ 9.30 / 9.70. I would try to get a fill
    around 2.50. If you believe in support & resistance, CMG has resistance
    at 540, and I don’t see any support until 348. BUT don’t forget your
    grain of salt, or in this case, a teaspoonful. After all, it is summer,
    and the tacos and beer will be flowing like nobody’s business.

    Once again, the bid/ask is too wide for my liking, so I probably
    would not do this credit leg or even the first debit leg, at all.

    Anyways, doing two of the call spreads, for each one put spread,
    gives you a cost basis of 5.00 – 3.60 or a credit of 1.40.

    The next earnings is Jul 16th.

  23. ed Says:

    Don Vialoux is GOD

  24. Tawny Says:

    Don Vialoux

    Re #23 – no pressure meant, by ed in 23, i’m sure. :)

    I have a note on my desk saying that there is support for gold at 1521, and silver at 26.
    Not sure if that was from you or from M. Liebovit…. would you concur.

    Anyone re gold and silver support???

  25. Paula/NS Says:

    Tawny,

    I was wondering the same thing about gold. I’ve been keeping an eye on IGT for possible purchase.

  26. tony Says:

    Tawny

    slv has to hold above 26.11

    gld has to break above 155

    will they be able to do so will need a few days of trading to see if this will happen.

    my personal opinion since neither slv or gld has tagged the 4MA today we could see a reversal tomorrow. but my indicators are still negative for the time being.

  27. Slava Says:

    Wow.. I was on the phone for 20 minutes or so – can’t believe how GDX jumped up even though gold itself is down.

  28. Tawny Says:

    Borowitz Does It Again: Introducing PhoneBook

    “According to its creators, who invented the network in their dorm room at Berkeley, PhoneBook is the game-changer that will leave Facebook, Twitter and even the much anticipated Google Buzz in a cloud of dust.”

  29. Tawny Says:

    And another exogenous threat ; Biderman On Bad Data And China’s Recession

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/biderman-bad-data-and-chinas-recession

    “Charles takes on the corruption in the ‘manufactured’ GDP data and outlines three more critical real-time (hard-to-fake) data points (electricity consumption, railcar-loadings, and bank-loans) that suggest China is potentially already in a recession. “Most investors do not even think this is possible”, he adds, as China is the hope that so many market participants hold on to as the engine of global growth. Add to this the collapsing real-estate bubble, on which the TrimTabs-Truthsayer provides some interesting color – relating to private-public relationships and demand (and prices) are dropping rapidly. This dismal (and somewhat shocking) conclusion that China could already be in recession only stokes the fires of money-printing-expectations of course – though Charles does add (and in keeping with our ‘there’s no such thing as decoupling’ meme) – “What a mess this world is becoming as Europe and now China is contracting – leaving very little to justify global stock prices to be as high as they currently are” and while collapse may not be imminent, Biderman ends by stating that “The Central Banks cannot levitate asset prices forever” – leaving the question of when not if the drop occurs.”

  30. Wayne Says:

    Slava,
    Gold stocks have rallied in spite of the fact that Gold is down more than $ 30.00.
    Well…. it all has to do with the price of Oil. Oil broke down through $ 90.00 this morning. Energy costs have a significant impact on production costs for the major producers. The lower the cost of energy, the higher the profit – so the majors are spiking.

  31. Tawny Says:

    Slava

    Please check out my video for you in post 319, maybe at the end of the day – it is just fun… in Russian!

  32. gmsa Says:

    Now THAT felt like a ‘Gold Rush’!
    Looks like people positioned for GDX & HUI and may be thinking that GLD will get punished (and hence not bumping it up too much) once the EU meet is over in next few hrs.

    .
    Tawny,
    re.#28
    It’s disappointing to note that you forgot to mention my ‘crystal ball’ invention there, the one that will change -forever- how people look at the markets. :D
    Thx ;)

  33. Slava Says:

    Tawny, thanks, I will.

    Wayne, thanks for the explanation of what’s happening with gold stocks, of course it’s breaking my heart since I’m not in HGU :(

  34. Slava Says:

    HGU at $7.84.. so what to do now? I left $30k on the table so far.. when do I buy back – that is the question.

  35. gmsa Says:

    Rol Lew,
    re.#22
    Thanks very much for your detailed analysis on CMG.
    Will definitely put my thoughts & brains into it once the markets are closed…as you know I’m still trying to learn these things.
    Cheers!

  36. Slava Says:

    I have such terrible luck!! I mean gold is at -$30 and hgu is at +8%! And I remember days and days of agony as gold was +$10 and hgu was -8%. Stock market just doesn’t make any sense, I’m so upset and frustrated right now. Now I will never be brave enough to buy 22k of hgu back and I will never recoup the loss.

  37. Frank Says:

    Hey, everyone. Will try to catch up late tonight. Happy with SPXU and GLUU. Now Gold stocks are up while bullion is down. Stocks are predicting a nice little bounce. We look for stuff like this. 2 days, 2 weeks…..I don`t know how long the bounce may last. I am in for a nibble here. If it doesn`t work out I will be out for a small loss tomorrow. No back up the truck type action, just a bear rally.

    Daytraders, what Gold items would you suggest…. GLD, GDX, something else. I usually don`t like the leveraged plays until we get a 2008 type washout.

    Here we go again. gotta run. Have fun. Perhaps tonight.
    Frank.

  38. tony Says:

    Slava

    gold at 3pm was at 1561 up from its low or 7$ below yesterdays close.

    and I think the Hfs saw my note @26 on gld and slv not tagging the 4MA and decided it was due for a bounce.

    HGU has to hold above 18MA = 7.48$ before being a real buy but this is the V part of a W shape rally. so I expect a small pullback before entering the trade.

  39. gmsa Says:

    Slava,
    Now that I’m in this CMG game, must say that CMG is a very nicely played game by those ‘invisible players’.

    .
    Frank,
    re.#37
    XGD, HUI & GDX that you can try. I would bet on the seniors like G.TO & not ABX.TO because of good size copper component there. FD: I’m long G.to
    XGD has more juice(and double in HGD) from the long side as opposed to GDX or HUI simply because of the weaker $CDW.
    Overall, lower diesel costs (as highlighted by Wayne) will help the miners esp. the ones in stable countries. Still needs to be seen if GLD can hold the crucial 148/149 support.

  40. Tawny Says:

    Slava

    Re HGU and gold. HGU is on a preliminary buy signal with UpTrend, but the pros are not there yet. Please watch this link up to the 60-min charts before you make a decision… and why not watch every day; believe it or not this system is better than you or I or most :) If you buy HGU, nibble along.. Hope this helps you with your decision process.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STcnN4uoIGU

  41. Tawny Says:

    HELP ??? who is there? gmsa? tony? Or?

    I was playing in the garden with dirt and water :) came in to find the markets havwe pulled back up, ANY RELAVENT NEWS? or is this just a buy on the oversold???

  42. tony Says:

    Slava

    if you really miss HGU

    I recommend taking a little stake probably 100 shares just to test the water,

    if you look at the 5min chart 18/50 cross at 12.40 it was your entry point. you really need to look at this 18/50 cross would make you lots of dough.

  43. tony Says:

    I know I am not perfect to a T as in Tony but darn close to it.

    tony Says:
    May 22nd, 2012 at 3:01 pm

    Slava

    Dust looks like it will head down so I hope you bougt it at 1.15pm and not at 2.30pm

    and at 3pm yesterday price of dust was 60$ and today at 3.00 was 52.19

  44. tony Says:

    Tawny

    I am here but not for long
    how can I help you.

  45. tony Says:

    Tawny

    Hows the weather in Kingston

  46. Tawny Says:

    tONY

    aS SAID THERE: iS THERE ANY RElavent news? Perhaps this is pump and dump bny Gold sucks.

    I was playing in the garden with dirt and water :) came in to find the markets have pulled back up, ANY RELAVENT NEWS? or is this just a buy on the oversold???

  47. gmsa Says:

    Tawny,
    I’m not sure what caused it but I’m guessing tonight’s EU meet & hope for some signal on easing and/or EU bond etc. etc. as the EUR/USD did not move first but the metals (PM & Industrial, both) moved first. Bringing along the SPX, although slowly. Currencies are not siding very much with this sudden move yet.

    Yeah, no one need to go to ‘fun fairs’ anymore, it’s all provided -right here- by mr. markets!
    Hopefully, by tonight it will get clear…some China data is also on tap late tonight, I guess.
    Sorry can’t help much.

  48. Tawny Says:

    gmsa

    Well it does help, at least I know there isn’t any real news that I am not aware of.
    But ouch, I watch for a long time this morning to sell if HVU and UVXY would head down – they didn’t so I held and finally went outside. Thy were up about 10%. Now as I write they are down – 4.5% or so. I sold FAZ at 27.73 – I think I will buy that one back cheaper now, but Crikey – I messed achance to sell a lot a nd buy back cheap.

  49. gmsa Says:

    Frank,
    re.#39
    Oops!
    when said “XGD has more juice(and double in HGD)…”
    Actually meant HGU there & NOT HGD.

  50. Rol Lew Says:

    Gmsa,

    OK – I just wanted to give a lot of details about how I structure trades.
    But here is the shorter version.

    If you are bullish, buy a slightly otm to slightly itm call spread, and pay for
    it byselling a far OTM put spread. You can look to pay for maybe 20% of the trade,
    or almost all of it, or do it for a credit by selling more spreads than you are
    buying.

    If you are bearish, do the opposite. Buy a slightly ITM to slightly OTM put spread.
    Pay for it by selling a way otm call spread.

    ……………………………………………………………..

    If you are right, these structures work great. If you are wrong, you face the same
    choices as with any other position. Do nothing. Get out. Do some adjustments. Double down. And if you are wrong, do not blame the stock. Blame yourself. Figure out why
    you were wrong, and try not to do that again – whatever your mistake was. But please
    do not go the very next day, and make the same mistake again.

    If you google “mistakes that options traders make” I am sure that you will
    get About 6,181,000 results – no kidding.

    With the market so schizophrenic these days, I am just trading small, and
    also trading from both sides. It is a daily struggle, but, this too will pass.

  51. tony Says:

    Tawny

    Sorry I don’t read into news. no time for it.
    I read in to my bowl of charts. use the 4MA as my guide and 18/50 for direction change.

    12.45-1.30 most stock did the same had an 18/50 bullish cross

    at AAPL all morning traded in a close range 8$ range 1.20 boom 18/50 came along price flew to 570

    bac 1.35pm 18/50 boom flew from 6.91 to 7.16
    cat 2pm 18/50 boom flew from 90 to 92$
    spx 1.50 pm 18/50 flew from 1306 to 1320

  52. Tawny Says:

    Tony

    Okay. The timing may be a clue – after the European markets closed down significantly avg of -2.5%…. the US marekts caught fire – by what? How is the volume?

  53. gmsa Says:

    DIA & SPY playing around 200EMA for past 4-5days.
    Descending trend lines on GDX, HUI, XGD & XAU are touched & somewhat breached today (more in case of XGD because of the currency component there)
    GLD & SLV trend lines are still way too far with today’s price action.

    Will have to wait for few days for confirmation & better till end of this week to show how they end on a weekly charts.

  54. tony Says:

    tawny

    uvxy look at exactly where you had your chance to get out with almost max profits from yersterday.

    it had 18/50 bull cross yesterday at 12.50 and today at 13.50 you had the 18/50 bear cross.

    made 3$/share in 2 days Wow now thats what I call trading made easy.

  55. tony Says:

    tawny

    volume on spx

    if you look at the last hour in volume you have about the same pattern as yesterday.

    gradually increasing volume as price moves higher. but this is almost 1hr after the 18/50 cross.

  56. tony Says:

    GMSA

    “GLD & SLV trend lines are still way too far with today’s price action.”

    to far from what gmsa?

  57. Slava Says:

    Tawny and tony, thank you both for the info.. I feel sick because of HGU.. Just couldn’t handle it emotionally last week.

  58. Tawny Says:

    tony

    First time I have hear of your 18/50 cross – maybe talked about, but I missed it. I can’t keep up with everything…. could you elaborate please.

    Also, you are trading uvxy…. what eles? Just day trading? No holding?

    Thanks

  59. Tawny Says:

    Slava

    I know how you feel – believe me, I know. This is why I am so hesitant to sell after a really big loss – most everything comes back sooner or later.

  60. gmsa Says:

    Tawny,
    Yes, seeing the profit$ melt away is not a pleasant sight but these markets are going get more & more choppier.
    So, if you can’t (as you’re doing short term trading) then may be leave the gardening on side until 4pm.
    I’m sure you know this already but thought of highlighting it.

    .
    Tony,
    It’s all clearly written there “GLD & SLV trend lines are still way too far with today’s price action.”
    May I suggest a re-read please?

  61. Slava Says:

    tony, yes, 18/50 cross is very accurate.. By the way, what do you see for fm.to when you have a minute? Thanks.

  62. Tawny Says:

    Slava

    sounds like gmsa is waiting for confirmation – so am I. If there is a big pull back or crash due to Eurozone; nothing will be safe. Gold will rise after the ashes!

    Eurozone definitely does not look at all good… en guarde

  63. Tawny Says:

    gmsa

    Yes, yes… you are right. I was just thinking about how much the garden cost me today!

    Wow!Problem is if I am on the computer all day, by 4pm I am too pooped to pop!
    I had watche up until about 12:30 or so, I think. Things changed just after I went out :(

  64. tony Says:

    Tawny

    just like the 9/18 you can use the 18/50 crosses to enter and exit your trades,

    here are the advantages of the 18/50 the time before it moves is alot closer so less time to wait. disadvatage you may leave some money on the table or at times

    the 9/18 disadvatage if stock price moves sideways you may have false exits or entries. but if your indicators are positive you should be on the right side of the trade.

  65. gmsa Says:

    Rol Lew,
    re.#50
    The details you gave there at #22 are fantastic & are indeed very helpful (just like #50) for someone who has not been into these academically/professionally. So pl. don’t get me wrong when I say that I will have to read it after markets because, I need to pay full attention + apply logic to understand what you’re saying…may be it’s simple for you but I’m learning, so have to document the thing too as I know I might not remember it all when needed.
    Needless to say, I appreciate your analysis & help.

    Regarding the approach to these markets & options on such less liquid momo stocks like CMG, you’re right on. Thx for reminding that price is the ultimate truth!
    And yes, I definitely don’t want to be a ‘cry baby’ on this board too.

    I do take the losses as lessons (the one that I paid for by taking losses), may be shed a tear & move on with better understanding for the next move.
    Keeping it small helps manage the mistakes easily.

    Thanks again, Rol :)

  66. canuck2004 Says:

    TSX charts look way better now…lol

  67. tony Says:

    Slava

    if you compare a 5min chart to a 60min chart the later has just made an 18/50 bull cross.

    but the 5min chart indicators have peaked lower so I think we could see a pullback maybe a few % points. either the 50MA or better.

  68. tony Says:

    but this market is a day traders market not an swing traders market

    as if you look at the weekly chartm fm.to everytime it hits the 50MA it a pulls back ever low since Jan have been the 100, 150 and now 200MA so next time do we break above the 50MA or below 200MA that the question to ask yourself.

  69. Tawny Says:

    tony

    Hope I catch you on time – thanks for the info on the 18/50 – can I ask if I should use 5 min. or ?? Thanks

  70. gmsa Says:

    Tawny,
    If I remember correctly, you were mentioning yesterday that you’ve taken a small position in these bears so seeing the markets down is not that worrisome as once it hits the next resistance, you can take another shot at it.
    All these EU/China/US problems are not gone away & spx is not firmly above 1350 yet.
    so don’t you worry too much!

  71. Michael Says:

    Hi gmsa. You were right about TEVA: ugly chart! I’m down $0.12 a share! The gap was closed for TAP, but figured that the stock could drop to $38. I sold some ABX on the NYSE since the gap closed this aft at $39.10 or so. Gold and precious metal stocks have just been crazy!

  72. gmsa Says:

    Michael,
    Now that’s a HUGE loss, Michael, hope you’re not having sleepless nights! lol.
    What I meant by ugly chart is that this rally in early 2012 could not even bring it close to it’s 2011 highs let alone 2010 highs.
    Having said that ‘gap’ theory did work in this case as well & if you caught it right in low 38 & sold it @ 39, it’s great. Isn’t?
    Today, it seems, it still struggled. Having said that, it’s way oversold & might try for 41 levels but since I don’t know any fundamentals or the moving parts of the sector itself, not sure if it will try for mid-36 1st.
    But you’re a pro, so you know the game.
    ABX & TAP gaps too!? You’re the gap filler, man!
    Congrats.
    Yeah, the sentiments in the PM sector are way too high these days…I’m sure you’re seeing it on this board too.
    What else is on your plate for your classic swing & gap trade?
    thx.

  73. gmsa Says:

    Ray-Kitchener,
    Where are you these days?
    Trust all’s well at your end & hope not playing too much golf B4 4pm on weekdays.
    Cheers!

  74. WLM Says:

    May 23, 2012, Market Call – BNN Shows

    Peter Brieger – CEO & Managing Director, GlobeInvest Capital Management

    Focus: North American Large Caps

    Top Picks:
    INTER PIPELINE FUND (IPL.UN-T)
    CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA (CEF.A-T)
    CASH

    Why CASH ?
    Context for today’s Top Picks is basically short-term uncertainty. He has his clients at 20% to 40% in cash. If things start to work out as we get into the end of the year, the cash positions will come down.

  75. Slava Says:

    Hi Tawny, I subscribed to the Uptrend youtube updates, thanks again for the link.

  76. Anna/TO Says:

    Hi Slava! Read your “complaints” about missing out on HGU rally – guess what – there will always be opportunity to make money as long as you have to $$$ invest! Don’t rush – the loss of potential gains stings, but the REAL loss really hurts and can do some serious damage to your account. Luckily, you didn’t end up like me today – I had a horrible trading day (long story). Broke my rules, did not set up stop loss (gasp!) and when the trade turned big time against me I was frozen like a deer in the headlights and could not click the “sell” button. At the end of the day the loss was so big, that I had to liquidate one of my other positions (very promising trade) to cover the damage. Yes, I know – it was classical example of what NOT to do…. Now I feel very upset with myself how I could be so stupid and careless – it will take me months in my daytime job to make up this faux pas – and what’s worst, my trading capital just shrunk down considerably. So Slava, don’t be like me! ;) I’m sure you’ll make your money back, just don’t rush – the markets will be here for a while! All the best in your trading – cheers!

  77. CJ Says:

    Unbelievable mis-management of time & travel & markets today!!

    We got home late last night and after staying put, market-wise, I found I had gains for a 2nd day in a row (all on paper only!) Then we had to be on the road before the open this morning; after our first appointment we lunched at a WIFI hot spot; I looked at all that red on the Finviz Futures and managed to play a couple of bears (just after 12 noon)- figured the bears would help mitigate the downtrend everywhere else – WRONG!

    Got home about an hour ago and find gains on my losing longs and losses on the bear ETF’s *sigh* – guess if one cannot monitor one should just stand pat.

    Any indication where we are going tomorrow??? Home and staying here for next 2 days.

  78. Slava Says:

    Hi Anna, I’m so sorry to hear about your trading loss.. I know exactly how you feel, especially the “deer in the headlights” feeling which I so frequently get. Was it a position in DUST or HVU by any chance? Those two had huge swings today. Anyways, I hope you make this money back quickly and thank you for your kind words. These markets are just very difficult – whether short or long.

  79. CJ Says:

    Tawney

    Guess I better take my lumps on TZA – would you hold – all indicators negative tonight – Why the Russel is in positive territory is beyond me; would you play TNA in the morning?

  80. gmsa Says:

    Slava,
    What happened to your missing $45k in BMO a/c?
    Was it just the disappeared margin because of the HGU loss?
    Hope you & the Investor line ‘find’ it soon.

    .
    Anna/TO,
    Sorry to hear about your bad trade day today.
    Mind if I ask you what was your promising trade that you had to liquidate?
    Thx.

  81. Anna/TO Says:

    #78

    Thank you Slava – it’s a small consolation, but sometimes it feels good to commiserate with someone that feels (or felt) your pain. Regarding the failed investment vehicles – yes, you’re right – it was HVU AND HGD and what’s even worst I was in HGU as a hedge, but got stopped out (funny how I managed to put a stop loss on my only winner). I sure know how to pick them! ;) There is no excuse for what happened to me – 100% all my fault – I think I had a moment (day?) of temporary insanity ;) Trading can be very humbling – I’m back to the drawing board working on self-discipline and following the plan – ehhh….

  82. Anna/TO Says:

    #80

    Hi gmsa – thanks! :)

    I’m almost afraid to name that “promising trade” since it was one of junior gold miners (that I’ve been following for LONG time) awaiting the drill results – not something I would recommend to anyone as investment. As soon as I sold it, it went to close up 10c. The ticker is GCU.V – pls. don’t be too harsh on me! ;)

  83. Eve Says:

    Anna/TO,

    “deer caught in the headlights and being frozen from selling the losing trade!” – YEP, been there – several times!!! AWFUL AWFUL feeling!!! I think many people freeze up – not any consolation though – but just saying, I don’t think you’re at all alone on that Anna :(

    I’m sure you’ll make those losses back – just takes some time.

    Eve

  84. gmsa Says:

    Anna/TO,
    Harsh & me?! lol.
    No Anna, only if someone repeats the same mistake over & over again after getting 100 warnings then it would be ok. I’m sure you trade better & your comments at #81 says it all –
    1. Accepting the fault & not blaming others/situation etc.
    2. Getting back to the drawing board, working on self discipline.
    The attitute -as Adrienne Toghraie insists very often- is the main source of right trade and as for the mistakes, we all do now & then. As long as we learn from those & don’t repeat them.

    Not knowing anything about GCU.V and just looking at the chart, looks good as it’s able to hold up much better than the ZJG.TO. Still mainly struggling under 10wk sma mostly since early 2011.
    As for my penny trades I hold two. (I’m proud to have those wounds too :( )
    One is RIN.TO and LOR.TO – They are the best currency shredder to me.
    I don’t even look at their charts or prices daily. 99% of the money is lost already & remaining, to me, is just like hoping on a 649lotto ticket.
    All the best!

  85. Anna/TO Says:

    Eve/gmsa – thank you for sharing – it’s so nice to know that there are so many helpful and kind people on this board. I think it’s very unique and I’m very grateful for all the support and advice that’s given here (for free!) on daily basis – much appreciated! :)

  86. Teri Says:

    Hi Anna/To- The very same thing happened to me…..I’m sitting with my bears, but I really do think that it is just a short covering rally and we will be okay ;-)

  87. Tawny Says:

    Anna/TO

    Hope you cath this tonight. First I am sorry to hear that you are upset. I have had huge losses too and hung in there to see it turn around. You mention HVU. I am in that too and I am not concerned. But I am not over-extended. HVU is very reactive and can have huge swings. Today’s upmove in the markets is possible explained in the link below… it is all rumours as far as I can make out – smoke and mirrors.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/reality-recedes-rumor-rampage-returns

    The problems in Europe cannot be fixed easily. Now then, also have a look at what is coming to press in Germany – this should shake the markets up pretty good to the negative side.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/german-press-greek-exit-done-deal

    The trend is your friend, etc., etc. and it isn’t over yet. Personally I am not surprised at the roumours. I also s eriously doubt there will be a QE from the U.S. just yet. The problem is in Europe so could a fix in the U.S. market resolve the issue of Greece possible leaving the Eurozone or the big debt, bank problems???? And, if gold stocks moved up on anticipation of more money printing that does not happen, they can also come down again.

    Hope this information helps you sleep better…. personally I am very bearish still.
    See message #70 from gmsa too.

  88. Tawny Says:

    Anna/TO (I had 2 links in my post so awaiting moderation – I am splitting them to get this to you faster.)

    Hope you catch this tonight. First I am sorry to hear that you are upset. I have had huge losses too and hung in there to see it turn around. You mention HVU. I am in that too and I am not concerned. But I am not over-extended. HVU is very reactive and can have huge swings. Today’s upmove in the markets is possible explained in the link below… it is all rumours as far as I can make out – smoke and mirrors.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/reality-recedes-rumor-rampage-returns

  89. Tawny Says:

    Anna/To (part 2)

    The problems in Europe cannot be fixed easily. Now then, also have a look at what is coming to press in Germany – this should shake the markets up pretty good to the negative side.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/german-press-greek-exit-done-deal

    The trend is your friend, etc., etc. and it isn’t over yet. Personally I am not surprised at the roumours. I also s eriously doubt there will be a QE from the U.S. just yet. The problem is in Europe so could a fix in the U.S. market resolve the issue of Greece possible leaving the Eurozone or the big debt, bank problems???? And, if gold stocks moved up on anticipation of more money printing that does not happen, they can also come down again.

    Hope this information helps you sleep better…. personally I am very bearish still.
    See message #70 from gmsa too.

  90. Tawny Says:

    CJ

    I remember (vaguely as memory is not my strong point) saying to you some time ago that it is okay to be in cash and I think you said you can’t earn anything that way.

    Cash is a “position.” You may not make money but you won’t lose it either. Perhaps you are takiny on too much risk at this time – just wondering. If one cannot afford to take losses, well the market is risky… so be careful.

    I own TZA – my last trading on it was sold at $22.42 at a profit and bought back at $22.12 so I am down at the moment. Also sold FZA today at $27.73 for a profit (about 10%) and bought back att $26.94. I will hold both. See my messages #88 and #89 to Anna/TO.

    I learned from Tony today about the 18/50 cross so hopefully I will be able to trade better intraday but I really hate being at the computer all day… so much to do, so far behind!

    NTR
    I am really glad that I had the opportunity to meet you and Gord. Hope you had pleasant times in Montreal and glad that you are safely home. Must get to bed.

  91. Tawny Says:

    CJ

    Correction re FAZ – bought back mostly at $26.72 ($1. less) + a little more at $26.94 – it closed at $26.74.

  92. Anna/TO Says:

    Thank you Tawny for the links & kind words. I agree with your outlook, but what the markets will think and how they react – that’s whole nother story. Good thing is, that we “bears of feather (can) hang together” on this BB ;) Good night!

  93. gmsa Says:

    China May Factory Activity Turns Down: HSBC Flash PMI retreats to 48.7 in May from a final reading of 49.3 in April.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/47545045

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