Tech Talk for Thursday May 24th 2012

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday May 24th

U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 4 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for initial jobless claims was 370,000 versus 372,000 last week. Actual was 370,000. Consensus for April Durable Goods Orders was an increase of 0.2% versus a decline of 3.7% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. Excluding Transportation, consensus was an increase of 1.0% versus a decline of 1.3% in March. Actual was a decline of 0.6%.

First quarter earnings reports continue to pour in. Hewlett Packard added $1.79 to $22.87 on better than expected earnings, Royal Bank (RY $52.90 Cdn.) is expected to open unchanged on fiscal second quarter earnings in line with consensus, Toronto Dominion Bank (TD $78.73 Cdn.) is expected to open higher on better than expected fiscal second quarter earnings and Tiffany dropped$4.75 to $57.05 after reporting lower than consensus earnings.

NetApps plunged $4.71 to $57.05 after lowering earnings and revenue guidance.

Human Genome is expected to open lower after BMO Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform. Target was reduced from $17 to $13.

Ivanhoe Mining (IVN $9.47) is expected to open higher after BMO Capital upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform. Target is $13.50.


Technical Watch

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ) – $22.87 added 8.5% after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-February. Favourable seasonal influences peak at the end of May. Preferred strategy is to liquidate positions on strength closer to its 50 day moving average at $23.73.


Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) Seasonal Chart


Network Appliance, Inc. (NYSE:NTAP) -$28.15 plunged 14.3% after lowering first quarter guidance. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock closed at a two year low yesterday. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-March. Favourable seasonal influences are past their peak. Better opportunities are available elsewhere.


NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ:NTAP) Seasonal Chart


Tiffany and Co. (NYSE:TIF) – $57.05 fell 7.7% after reporting lower than expected first quarter earnings and after lowering its 2012 guidance. The stock has a negative technical profile. Its intermediate downtrend was confirmed in pre-opening trade when the stock broke below support at $58.36. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-March. Favourable seasonal influences are about to peak. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.


Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF) Seasonal Chart



Interesting Charts

Another wild day yesterday! The Euro and the U.S. Dollar led equity markets first on the downside and later on the upside.

· The Euro broke support at 126.24 in early trading to reach a 21 month low. Equity markets fell sharply.


· At midday, the Euro bottomed and rose strongly. Following is a 10 minute chart for the past five days that shows the action.


· The U.S. Dollar completed a mirror image of the Euro. Following is a 10 minute chart for the past five days for UUP, the U.S. Dollar Index ETF:


· Weakness in the U.S. Dollar had an immediate impact on commodity prices (particularly gold) and their related stocks and ETFs. Following is the 10 minute chart of GDX, the U.S. gold equity ETF.


· Late strength in broadly based equity indices added evidence of a short term bottom. Previously, these indices had recorded short term RSI buy signals. Yesterday, they also recorded short term Stochastic buy signals on a move above the 20% level.




The TSX Composite is close to recording a Stochastics buy signal.


North American equity markets have started a base building period that likely will last until mid-July. Between now and mid-July, look for lots of volatility! In the short term, the stage is set for the Memorial Day trade lasting until at least the end of next week. See Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide (Page 63) for background.


Weekly Review of Select Sector SPDRs


· Intermediate trend is down. Support at $27.41 may be developing.

· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but below its 20 and 50 day moving average

· Stochastic and RSI buy signals have been recorded. MACD is close.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is negative, but shows signs of a change.



· Intermediate trend is down. Support may be forming at $32.65.

· Trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Recorded Stochastic and RSI buy signals (Stochastics moving above 20% and RSI moving above 30%). MACD is close to a buy signal on a positive cross over.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.


Consumer Discretionary

· Intermediate trend is neutral. Resistance is at $46.27. Support may be forming at $41.73.

· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but below its 20 and 50 day moving averages

· Recorded a Stochastic and RSI buy signal and is close to recording a MACD buy signal.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is positive, but is showing signs of change.



· Intermediate trend is down. Support may be forming at $34.02.

· Bounced from near its 200 day moving average, but remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

· Recorded a Stochastics and RSI buy signal and is close to recording a MACD buy signal

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been neutral/negative, but is showing early signs of turning positive.



· Intermediate trend is down. Support at $63.67 may be forming.

· Trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Recorded a Stochastics and RSI buy signal and is close to recording a MACD buy signal.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.



· Intermediate trend is down. Support may be forming at $13.70.

· Nice bounce from near its 200 day moving average, but trades below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

· Recorded an RSI Buy signal and is close to recording a Stochastics and MACD buy signal.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.


Consumer Staples

· Intermediate trend changed from up to neutral yesterday on a break below support at $33.42. Resistance is at $34.44.

· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

· Recorded a Stochastics buy signal yesterday.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.


Health Care

· Intermediate trend is down. Resistance is at $37.74 and $38.00.

· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

· Recorded a Stochastics buy signal yesterday.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.



· Intermediate trend is up.

· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages, but fell below its 20 day moving average yesterday.

· Recorded a Stochastics buy signal yesterday.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.




Thursday, May 24, 2012


Our latest issue of CastleMoore Investment News is hitting production now and should be out shortly. We’ve put together another great issue with the regulars, and as always some guest columnists just to keep us honest. To receive your bi-monthly (we think every couple months is just about right to think about the worlds) copy please click the link below We will send out your copy quickly.



Hap Sneddon was guest on Market Call Today, May 14 with the ubiquitous Michael Hainsworth




As we wrote here in these pages several weeks back the pro-cyclical move never got its act together. A glance at the table above shows the convergence that has occurred between the weekly (shorter term) and monthly (longer term, CastleMoore’s timeframe) in Asset Classes, Canadian and US stock markets. Though a meaningful rally may still occur in energy, industrials, metals and mining, and financials it maybe simply a “rental” situation.


US Long Bonds


This chart of the 20+ year US long bond ETF shows that we are banging into resistance around $125.50, and some indicators are at the upper levels. Indicators at times over the last few years have been very poor timing tools as sentiment can stay out of whack for quite some time.

Gold Bullion


This chart of gold bullion shows an effort to bottom. We have begun to purchase bullion for client accounts in what will be a 3 tranche process.

S&P 500


This chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) highlights an example of how sentiment can stay offside for a while. Though we do not need to always “test” for support it happens more often than not. The action of the last 5 trading days suggests a snap back or shorter term reversal. The question is: trading or investible bottom?



Yes it’s a busy chart. You can see copper (shown in price per tonne) is trying to bottom in the lower two panels. The upper panel shows a very large head and shoulders pattern that must not break the neck line lest it confirm the rumours that China has been defaulting or deferring commodity contracts. Yesterday’s action was a good start up over 1%. Teck Resources (TCK.B) up over 4.5% may be leading the commodity as is the case with most producers vs. commodity relationships.

If you like to receive bi-monthly newsletter, know more about our model portfolios or access an audio file of our investment philosophy, “Modern Financial Fiascos”, click on the link

CastleMoore Inc. uses a proprietary Risk/Reward Matrix that places clients with minimum portfolios of $500,000 within one of 12 discretionary portfolios based on risk tolerance, investment objectives, income, net worth and investing experience. For more information on our methodology please contact us.


CastleMoore Inc.

Buy, Hold…and Know When to Sell


This commentary is not to be considered as offering investment advice on any particular security or market. Please consult a professional or if you invest on your own do your homework and get a good plan, before risking any of your hard earned money. The information provided in CastleMoore Investment Commentary or News, a publication for clients and friends of CastleMoore Inc., is intended to provide a broad look at investing wisdom, and in particular, investment methodologies or techniques. We avoid recommending specific securities due to the inherent risk any one security poses to ones’ overall investment success. Our advice to our clients is based on their risk tolerance, investment objectives, previous market experience, net worth and current income. Please contact CastleMoore Inc. if you require further clarification on this disclaimer.

Special Free Services available through is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.

To login, simply go to



Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC May 23rd 2012


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57 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday May 24th 2012”

  1. Anna/TO Says:

    Hi gmsa – guess who just released news results from the drill program… The company that I’ve mentioned to you yesterday – what an untimely sale. Can’t wait to see the price action today – ugh.

  2. Anna/TO Says:

    Hi Slava – ready to trade some HGU/NUGT today? Gold up 18$ pre-market – should be good for the miners. What do you think?

  3. Tawny Says:


    What time chart do I watch for an 18/50 cross : 5-min, Daily ????

  4. Tawny Says:

    The S&P 500 remains over 100 points below the April 2 high. We remain near and above the 200-day moving average. Our comments from earlier today still apply:

    The point for U.S. investors is the path overseas seems to be gravitating toward two somewhat binary outcomes over the next two to three weeks.

    A bottoming process similar to what the S&P 500 experienced in October 2011 or
    An acceleration of declines similar to what global markets experienced in June 2008.

    There is no question the elements are in place for an attempt at a bottoming process. We should learn a great deal about whether the next move is toward 1,400 or 1,200 relatively soon.

  5. Tawny Says:

    Someone apparerntly did not tell Russia to keep its mouth shut… That or, the sleeping bear is starting to awake and cause chaos and mischief:


    Kak skazat Oops po Russki? Cue Greek denials they have any plans about anything. Ever.

  6. Tawny Says:


    You do not have time to read the news so I bring pertinent information to you and everyone ;)

  7. Paula/NS Says:

    I think I need to take a Gravol as this market is causing me motion sickness!! I sold Goldcorp to avoid further losses and then it rebounded like a bungee cord. Now it’s losing air after an initial pop at the open. It’s hard to know what to do, so I sit in cash at the moment waiting for some sustained direction in the market. Now where did I put that box of Gravol tablets? ;-)

  8. Tawny Says:


    I sent you messages on the Board last night.

  9. Slava Says:

    Hi Anna, I’m going back to work tomorrow after being off for 2.5 weeks. My plan was to take an unpaid leave for 4 months but it wasn’t approved so now I have to go back. I just bought GMCR for a trade but I now see that my stop loss may be triggered. Not planning to do much trading today since I have to leave in 45 minutes and will be busy today. I find these markets very difficult to trade.

  10. Slava Says:

    Hi Tawny, re “Kak skazat Oops po Russki?” cute.. Russia wants to flex its muscle – they always try to compete for attention.

  11. Tawny Says:


    As a senior I loved those singing elders!

  12. Michael Says:

    Hi gmsa. I sold my TEVA this morn after the gap up due to their lower guidance (go figure!). I’m looking at repurchasing WDC due to a gap at $31.36, but it has a ways to go.

  13. Tawny Says:


    Just want to thank you for your comments to me last night. I am still bearish and looking at Bradley next major turn is around June 12…. I cannot watch all day – too much to do. No one I can delegate to. :(

    Re: Ray-Kitchener : I have also been wondering where he is. I assume he is on a vacation from his troubles – i.e. golfing. :)

  14. tony Says:

    18/50 vs time frame.

    I am sorry for not responding I had to leave for a brief meeting just before 5pm and then I was gone to pick up the kids.

    if your a daytrader I would recommend a 1 or 5min chart if your swing trader 60min or daily chart.

    It all depends on you how much time you want to spend infront of a screen well with a pb you can spend a little more time then with big berta here…. :D

  15. CJ Says:

    FLIP FLOP – Took more losses, and just looked at a 3 year chart of ANR and afraid I will have to cut that also it just keeps going down.

  16. Tawny Says:


    Thanks…. no need to be sorry – I know how busy you are so I posted lots ofnews for you!

  17. tony Says:


    I recommend you start using an 18/50 cross before investing.

    If you can take a look at a 60 min chart since april 30th when the 18/50 cross failed ANR has been in the dog pound as price dropped from 16 to 10$

  18. tony Says:

    Oh CJ

    and before I forget never try to anticipate what the market will do only Hfs know exactly where the market will go for sure.

  19. CJ Says:

    Tony #18 – If one does not attempt to “anticipate” (using TA of course) one would be left with one other option – “React” – reaction time gets a little slow at my age LOL and these markets turn on a dime.

    On ANR – I cannot remember what sucked me in to that one – I obviously did NOT do due diligence, I keep looking at it and asking myself WHY did I buy that???

  20. Tawny Says:

    “Currently, implied correlation is rising rapidly – a worrying trend – and has broken back above 70% (a critical threshold from last September when capital market risk became epic). We will be watching implied correlation closely – especially relative to VIX – to get a handle on the market’s relative demand for downside protection and thus a real ‘fear’ index (as opposed to a ‘movement’ index).”

    And so, I remain a bear. But not tradin bare like some bloggers do. ha ha :)
    Back to the garden and other house work.

  21. CJ Says:

    QTRADE having a problem – both ANR & MCD quoted price is $6.12, LOL; they gave me a work around.

  22. CJ Says:

    FYI; QTrade back in full swing

  23. Irwin Says:

    wowsa! ERF now yielding 15%

    no, I’m not tempted to buy.

  24. Ania Says:

    Hi Tech Talk,

    I clicked on your education link then on different links. All the links show a 404 error- Not found.
    It might be a problem with the written code on your HTML pages.

    My Best, Ania

  25. CJ Says:

    Tawney #20 – If we get as hot a summer as they are predicting; we may all take a page from Slava’s “bare” book LOL!

  26. tony Says:


    never try to anticipate what the market will do

    what I mean by that is don’t try to be a hero its better to miss the bottom then getting sucked in a bad trade.

    so if you use the 18/50 on a 5 min chart and you see the 18MA at x-10 cent below 50MA don’t try to anticipate that there will be a definitive 18/50cross

    look at eca back in november 18 tagged the 50 but never crossed above it.

  27. CJ Says:

    Tony #26 – Oh that’s what you meant – I usually wait until I have a definite 4/9 bullish cross AND most of my indicators RSI, MACD Hist, Full Stoch, CCI, Wm%R also positive.

    I have not tried moving to your 18/50 yet.

  28. canuck2004 Says:

    Greece leaving the EU…. very unlikely, no matter what pundits say.

    It would be financially catastrophic for Greece, all their banks would fail, with no one there to bail them out, the Government would be broke and noboby in govt. services would get paid, pensions would stop, the Drachma would be worthless paper… Greece would experience the same type of hyperinflation as the Weimar Republic of the 1920’s… you’d need a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a gyros…lol…total disaster.

    The horrifying aftermath would be the domino effect to Spain, Portugal and Italy. It would create a world wide financial catastrophe 100 times worse than the Lehman Bros collapse.

    Unthinkable that the European Union would let that happen…it would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face as the saying goes… very unlikely.

    Like another old saying goes: “owe a thousand dollars, you are in debt; owe a billion dollars, you have a partner.”

  29. Freddebuoy Says:

    Received the evening of May 23rd. XIU was added to the list this morning.

    Please be advised that today we had issued buy signal for EWZ, EFA, SMH, for market opening, Thursday, May 24th, 2012;

    We are entering the market with a relatively modest allocation for the most depressed sectors. We may increase our allocation by adding to our positions if the market experiences another heavy sell off by flock traders.

    We have been watching the ratio of insider buying to insider selling. Presently it is at a high level, especially for the leading subsectors such as semiconductors.

  30. Ania Says:

    Hi Eve,

    I am thinking of buying GLD. What’s your outlook for GLD.

    Many Thanks, Ania

  31. Tawny Says:


    Could I get the source for the info in #29 please.

  32. Jeanne Says:

    Hi Teck Talk, Don and Brooke,
    I just noticed that there was a book value adjustment for HAC on April 26, 2012, which increased the original book value. I want to know why and what is a book value adjustment for? I have HAC under RESP and TFSA account, what’s impact for those non cash account?
    For example, I bought HAC at $12 under RESP account in Nov. 2011, after April 26 book value adjustment, the book value changed to $12.67, at today’s market price of $12.36, I am losing money instead.
    I am very much appreciated your explanation and thank you!


  33. Freddebuoy Says:

    Tawny, here is the website from which I received the quotation in my #29 post.

    It is a paid service so I don’t want to send too much info for fear of violating their rules. Their cost is very reasonable.

    They have been very successful and provide winning trades most of the time. Feel free to peruse their site. You will find a history of each trade.

  34. gmsa Says:

    Anna/TO, Michael & Tawny,
    Thx for your notes today.
    Just woke up (as not feeling well), will get back to you in a day or two.
    Happy Trading all!

  35. CJ Says:


    Get well soon! Take care!

  36. rick Says:

    Natural Gas is ready to calm down after a big rally .
    So I sold 100 shares of Boil at 47.00

    Any players in Natural Gas ? Any opinion ? or ? ung ?

  37. Martine Says:


    Re $Gold

    You provided a technical analysis late last February as to where you saw the bullion with a possibility for the GLD to reach a low of $135. Jon Vialoux’s downside target was $1,575. We have recently touched $1,526 corresponding to a double bottom, even triple going back to Sept.2011. When and if you have the time, could you provide an update where you expect gold to trade over the next few months? Volatility is high and that would be helpful. Looking at the chart, it looks like more downside is possible. With an expected stronger $US during uncertain times, it would also lead to believe gold could struggle short term.

  38. rick Says:

    And I sold 100 of UNG at 18.78 .
    Small bets because Nat Gas can double from here and I will need cash , just in case ..

  39. Slava Says:

    Why is CP up today? All other railroads are down and this thing is up +2.47% even though they are dealing with a major strike?

  40. tony Says:


    CP up when other Railroads are down

    I will answer like my friend the big bad wolf…to better eat you.

  41. Slava Says:

    tony, my CP short is not looking too good today.. I’ll keep it for a while.

  42. tony Says:


    in other words cp 18MA has just crossed below the 50MA a few days ago, so feel like shorting just be my guest but I wouldn’t short the rest of the gang as the 18 is still above the 50 for most of them you could easily trade them in a range.

  43. tony Says:



    usually a good support is the 18MA which for natgas is currently at at 2.46 if this fails watch for the 50MA (2.26) since we are in the early stage of the rally 50 is the support that has to hold it together if it does. look out the race horses will be running wild.

  44. Slava Says:

    tony, I just signed up to for $34/month.. I’ll set it up after work. Time to get serious about charts! (finally)

  45. Slava Says:

    tony, today’s action in CP stock is pure manipulation – plain and simple. I’m pretty sure that Ackman & Co. are juicing it up today with their unlimited hedge fund money in order to instill some confidence. The reality is that CP is dealing with some very serious labour issues.. and we know what happens with disgruntled and unhappy employees – they don’t peform as well.

  46. mick/nv Says:


    Learn to use the scans, you may find it may help you quickly identify certain trends.

  47. Slava Says:

    RBC Dominion Securities Inc.’s Walter Spracklin believes CP will take an earnings charge in the second or third quarter of “$80-million or more.”

    With 170 million shares outstanding, that could carve up to 50 cents off CP’s earnings per share. (The company’s first-quarter EPS was 82 cents.)

    “Given the myriad of advisory fees, consultancy expenses, severance payments, signing bonuses and related retention expenses incurred in connection with the proxy battle, we believe CP is likely to recognize these costs early and all at once,” Mr. Spracklin wrote in a research note published last week after Mr. Ackman’s victory.

  48. tony Says:


    What? you just now became member to a chart website.

    Well I hope you use it wisely.

  49. tony Says:


    look at how 20 different chart react to different scenarios and from there wait and see how it comes up a week later.

    to see if ytou were right or wrong.

  50. Ania Says:


    Wishing you fast recovery, Ania

  51. Martine Says:


    Sorry to hear you are sick. Take care of yourself.

  52. Martine Says:


    Re. GDX and gold stocks in general

    Thank you very much for your note. Here’s Ron’s chart for the benefit of all the gold traders:$BPGDM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89074978458&a=241497573

    This has been a difficult trade and not very rewarding so far.I hope you enjoy your garden. I wish I would spend more time enjoying mine. I remain hopeful.

  53. Slava Says:

    Tony, I was just backtesting 18/50 bull cross on DUST today and it would have kept one in the trade from the point of the cross (around $51.20) until around $53. Not bad at all!

  54. Slava Says:

    CP customers looking for alternatives.. love it!–cp-rail-customers-looking-for-alternatives-as-strike-continues

  55. Slava Says:

    Between January and March Bill Ackman bought only 4 stocks for his fund and 2 of them have performed very poory as of now.. JC Penny and Citigroup. Alex is up around 10% and his best investment so far has been CP.. looking forward to watching it go down in June, can’t wait.

  56. CJ Says:

    Well have tallied the damages for the day, and surprised to find I am up by 65 cents LOL;
    All the ups and downs cancelled each other out *grin*

  57. tony Says:


    is the doctor in?

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