ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Tuesday June 5th
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 1 point in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news that the Eurozone’s May Purchasing Manager’s Index fell again from 46.7 in April to 46.0. An Index, that is lower than 50, implies contraction in the manufacturing sector.
G7 central government governors and finance ministers have scheduled a conference call today to discuss Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.
As expected, the Bank of Canada maintained its overnight lending rate to Canadian banks at 1.0%. The Canadian Dollar moved slightly higher following the news.
Goldman Sachs reduced its earnings outlook for U.S. trust banks including State Street, Bank of New York and Northern Trust.
TransCanada has been selected by Shell to build a $4 billion pipeline to Kitimat British Columbia.
Navistar (NAV $26.39) is expected to open lower after RW Baird downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral. Target was reduced from $56 to $31.
Brocade (BRCD $4.42) is expected to open lower after ThinkEquity downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. Target was reduced from $6.50 to $5.00.
Aecon Group (ARE: $11.60) is expected to open lower after Canaccord downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
Technical Watch
Navistar International Corp. (NYSE:NAV) – $26.39 is expected to open lower after RW Baird downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral. Target was reduced from $56 to $31. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the end of January. Better opportunities are available elsewhere.
Brocade Communications (NASDAQ:BRCD) – $4.42 is expected to open lower after ThinkEquity downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. Target was reduced from $6.50 to $5.00. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-February. Better opportunities are available elsewhere.
Aecon Group Inc. (TSE:ARE) – $11.60 Cdn. is expected to open lower after Canaccord downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. The stock has a mixed technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $11.01 and resistance is at $13.49. The stock trades below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are neutral. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index has been neutral since March. On the other hand, the stock remains above its 200 day moving average and Strength relative to the TSX Composite generally has been positive since last October. Preferred strategy is to liquidate the stock on strength closer to its 50 day moving average at $12.64.
Interesting Charts
Lots of cross currents again yesterday! On the positive side, short term momentum indicators indicate that the Euro is showing early signs of trying to bottom. Conversely, the U.S. Dollar Index is showing early signs of peaking.
On the other hand, Far East markets were hit following news over the weekend that China’s May Purchasing Manager’s Index declined unexpectedly to 50.4. Equity indices in China, Japan and Australia came under significant technical pressure.
In the U.S. the home building sector was notably weaker.
CNBC Headline
CNBC headline reads, “Earnings Forecast Deflating Fast Amid Slowing Growth”. Following is a link to the report:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47663823
Tech Talk’s Weekly ETF Column
(Published late on Friday at www.globeandmail.com )
Following is a hard copy of the column (including a modification).
Black Swan Investing Using Exchange Traded Funds
Before discovered in Australia, people in Europe were convinced that all swans were white, a belief that was confirmed by empirical evidence at the time. The sighting of a black swan when Australia was first settled by Europeans was a surprise. It also confirmed that one single observation can invalidate a general belief coming from the sighting of millions of white swans.
Investors for years saw lots of white swans until Nassim Nicholas Taleb published his now famous book in 2007 entitled, “The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable”. Prior to publishing the book, investors believed that all investments could be placed on a bell curve based on their potential risk and return. A basic assumption in the Black-Sholes Model for investing is that the bell curve works. Taleb noted that is does not work all of the time. Completely unexpected “Black Swan” events can occur that substantially impact equity markets beyond bell curve expectations. Taleb explains a Black Swan event as follows:
“First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable”.
In his book Taleb offers lots of examples that impacted the investment world, including start of the two world wars, the market crash in 1987 and the terrorist attack on September 11th 2001. More recent events include the melt-down of the financial system in late-2008 and the tsunami/earthquake that impacted Japan last year.
What is Taleb saying now in light of the financial crisis in Europe, the slew of negative U.S. economic data released last week and the meltdown by world equity markets late last week? Taleb noted the following during an event sponsored by the Alternative Investment Association in Montreal last week
“A breakup of the Euro is not a big deal. When they break it up, there will be a lot of fun currencies. This is why I am not afraid of Europe, or investing in Europe. I’m afraid of the United States. Of course Europe has its problems, but it’s in much better shape than the United States. Rising interest rates would make things worse for the U.S. We have zero interest rates. If interest rates go up in the United States, you can imagine what the deficit would be. Europe is like someone who is ill, but is conscious of it. In the United States, we are ill, but we don’t know it. We don’t talk about it”.
Last week, Horizons Exchange Traded Funds launched two Exchange Traded Funds based on Black Swan basics. Nassim Taleb serves as a Distinguished Scientific Advisor for Universa, the managers of the two funds. The funds are designed to protect investors against Black Swan events that will impact the S&P 500 Index and the TSX 60 Index. The Horizons Universa Canadian Black Swan ETF (HUT $9.93) and the Horizons Universa U.S. Black Swan ETF (HUS.US$9.84) will combine traditional exposure to equity indices with an actively-managed options strategy. Black Swan ETFs essentially consist of two components: exposure to broadly based equity indices and a pool of put and call options that utilize the Black Swan Protection Protocol. Mark Spiznagel, founder of Universa manages a fund using the protocol that saw a return in excess of 100% in 2008.
A word of caution! These Exchange Traded Funds are specialty funds that are expected to record long periods of underperformance, but are expected to deliver positive returns correlated to the underlying index. If the index recorded a positive return, these ETFs are expected to record a positive return as well. However, potential return is substantial if and when a Black Swan event occurs. Consider the ETFs as a form of long term investment portfolio insurance policy.
Don Vialoux is the author of free daily reports on equity markets, sectors, commodities and Exchange Traded Funds. He is also a research analyst at Horizons Investment Management, offering research on Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC:TSX). All of the views expressed herein are his personal views although they may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment. Horizons Investment is the investment manager for the Horizons family of ETFs. Daily reports are available at http://www.timingthemarket.ca/
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Sprott: Perfect environment for gold”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/04/sprott-perfect-environment-for-gold/#more-181216
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10 year seasonality chart on the Shanghai Composite Index
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC June 4th 2012
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: BRCD, NAV
June 5th, 2012 at 9:27 am
CJ
R U there?
June 5th, 2012 at 9:44 am
Yes I’m here Tawney! Whiteside seems to think still some downside – its hard when the bears are going down too!
June 5th, 2012 at 10:01 am
CJ
My GUT is concerned as of last night… feel over invested in HVU. Full moon and this is often market bottom, Bradley date is very close. Recently a man by the name of Gerd Gigerenzer was interviews on BNN about his book Gut Feelings; The Intelligence of the Unconscience. I am going to get this book – probably download onto my PB on KOBO.
June 5th, 2012 at 10:07 am
Down $350 on my bears – looking at futures last night everything was green but as usual changed this morning before open and now is greening up again – sitting on both sides and playing the teeter-totter
Gut feelings??? I don’t trust my gut unless it is directed by underlying knowledge; and I know so little!
June 5th, 2012 at 10:12 am
Eve
If you read this I need your comment on a price action
could you comment on yesterday price action on the SnP.
from my point of view SnP failled to tag the 4MA so to me it means we are reversing but when I look at the BAR form I see a cross, and I am not to skilled to say is it a hammer, shooting star, handman or what ever they call it on the Japanese pattern.
I think SnP will at least tag the 18MA and if anything positive comes about (other then the Olympic games) we could see more upside. but this is only my gut feeling.
June 5th, 2012 at 10:13 am
CJ
Gut feelings are, in my mind – I haven’t read the book – your internal computer…. often works for me…. would like to learn how to tune into it.
June 5th, 2012 at 10:24 am
CLF looks really interesting!
June 5th, 2012 at 10:30 am
Tawny, CJ
Ladies (and to think I started by calling you girls yeah girls of a certain age.)
Ok Girls of a certain Age
get OUT of those bear etfs. reason yesterday’s high has indicators peaking at lower levels then on may 21st.
the fact that SnP didn’t tag the 4MA yesterday is a reversal in my books.
It may be a short term reversal (9MA or 18MA) but if you can get a better price I rather be in what is trending higher or on the sidelines.
well you already know that I am on the sidelines (100% cash)
June 5th, 2012 at 10:36 am
Teri,
This is a message I posted late yesterday:
Regarding HXD, you indicated that it did not seem to be able to pierce the $11.00 level being strong resistance. I was revisiting some charts put together by Rob-BC and there was a message addressed to you pertaining to that comment. I hope you will read this blog later tonight or tomorrow.
And here’s the chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HXD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p58303599381&a=234719595
June 5th, 2012 at 10:58 am
Tony -Almost got into the green on Westport this morning. Did you hear about the deal they made with Caterpillar to produce NG technology for Off road equipment? That may be what made it pop this morning, but just as it gets into my ball park, people sell off and drive it down again
Thanks for your thoughts on the bears; $vix came back just past its 4ma and at 25.30 at the moment – keeping an eye on things.
June 5th, 2012 at 11:19 am
Tony
Thanks re the bears – your comment is in line with my intuition…. have been selling off, trying to get the best prices.
Would you be a long buyer of anything now?
June 5th, 2012 at 11:19 am
CJ
I know WPT has a few deals on the table, cummins for one, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn they have a contract with with GM and Chrysler as earlier this year it was mentioned that they were coming out with NG powered Pick up trucks
didn’t I mention to you that WPT had to hold 22$ and there you go so I wouldn’t be to fast selling this one unless it breaks down again.
June 5th, 2012 at 11:25 am
markets:
I notice that we have been getting rallies on light volume, and down days on heavier volume. Bearish.
What this means, the big boys, the market makers: the institutions, pension funds, mutual fund managers, etc. have been selling heavily on the big down days, and the weak rallies are nothing but short covering by day traders and retail traders. The market makers are not buying into the rallies.
June 5th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Michael, thanks for RIM
I see it’s up almost 4%, will you be taking your profit today?
June 5th, 2012 at 11:36 am
Tony
Canuck is likely right, I think I will hold and see how the balance of my bears work out… this could be a dead cat bounce : good read here. This company has developed Risk Models – they are an excellent firm as I have pointed out before.
http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/
June 5th, 2012 at 11:40 am
Matine,
My short term view on gold is ‘down’ to keep it simple: Here are some fundamental reasons and my thoughts surrounding it.
Market participants & speculators are running wild for BenQQQ to announce the QEIII on his upcoming testimony in front of Senate on Thurs. Wednesday we will see if ECB has lowered the interest rates or not & by how much. I am not sure but there could very well be a conference by Mario Draghi after the ECB rate decision. Language there –by Mr. Draghi- as well as the Ben’s statements will spell it out their co-ordinated intentions, if any. One month of bad NFP data -although the April data revision for NFP was bad- for the month of May is not enough for them to declare another war. They are also aware of the lower gasoline prices doing a mini stimulus on its own for now, so no need for them to rush and do something that has not worked yet.
As of last Friday everyone & their brothers were calling for easing by PBOC (People’s Bank of China) during the weekend that didn’t happen either. Neither did they announce further RRR cuts. We all know that these QEs have failed to do anything if you really look at the dual mandate that the FED has. This morning we came to know about the Spain’s Budget Minister’s pain that “no one from outside is helping us”. IMF and ECB has yet to throw money at them. So there are risks to the Euro & so are for USD. Then there are political macro events that will hurt Euro more. So sentiment wise Euro is more susceptible to the downside as compared to USD i.e. less bullish or more bearish for Gold depending on what side of the camp you’re in.
Having said all these, the fact remains is 80% of the Gold price movement is directly correlated to USD movement. Until there is less fear in the world markets & a hint of increasing inflation by Central Banks printing more money the USD or DXY is not going down. DXY can very well hit the 85 & then the 88 mark. Other fact is ‘interest rates’ are the cost of money, very low interest rates across almost all developed nations say there is no value in their currencies. So that’s one bullish factor for Gold but has not worked well for past 9 months as all those banks are resisting such monetary expansions.
Historically speaking Gold always has a tendency to move to ‘stronger hands’. GDP growth experienced by India & China will attract their Central banks to buy more of this yellow stuff. Asian Central banks have only @ 2% of their reserves backed by gold so far. If they take it to 15% (norm with many developed nations) they will need additional 16000 tons of gold and that will take 8 years at the current production rate as one ex-WGC chairman pointed out recently. But it will be crazy to believe that this buying is going to come as a panic in a short duration. Even if the Gold goes up, in a short term, going too far above 1700 would be very difficult. Lower range is 1500 technically tested & proven few times in just the recent past…can go as low as 1140. But that may very well bring death to its current 11 year bull cycle.
At last, this current Gold bull cycle has not seen real high quality discovery. As the prices rose, lower grades got pulled out and sold. This has given way too many negative sentiments on the miners as they failed to create and maintain higher margins. Low grades & lower margins have really hurt all the miners since early 2011 as evident from $gold vs. GDX chart.
Bottom line, if they want to do any QE etc. chances are they will not wait till fall, like what they did last year. But will be forced to do it sooner, my guess is b4 July end i.e. few weeks after the June NFP data release as otherwise it could be seen as a political move (because it will be too close to the US Pres. Elections). Probably that’s why markets are not doing much since yesterday all are going to be ears for next 2 days.
Lots of critical moves are going to be taking place in next couple of weeks. So saying anything ‘for sure’ is almost impossible as I don’t claim to be able to ‘predict’ the future prices. But, as mentioned in yesterday’s last post to you my money is still on the PM miners from the short side. No direct positions on GLD/HBU i.e the metal itself. And I’m planning to keep it that way until I hear them spelling out monetary easing…could they do another operation twist? Who knows but this time they could go and attack the longer end of the curve. Flattened yields are not helpful much except for the housing markets, but that will be a different discussion.
Technically, high of @ 1700 and low of @ 1500 for the short term. We are almost in the middle right now… none the less it will be very interesting to watch & see along with the purchasing power of the real buyers in China & India with their currencies.
All the best, Martine!
June 5th, 2012 at 11:44 am
Canuck
Thanks for your observations in #12.
June 5th, 2012 at 11:46 am
darn
why did no one call me tellimg me KO fell off a cliff this morning ??? it was a bargain at 68 now back to 73.
What I like now is the gold stocks
I mentioned recently I think it was last wednesday I mentioned these.
img.to
osk.to
gfi
IMG is the one I tend to look at right now 4/50 price is close so
GFI is probably going to make a pullback now that the 18 is about to close on the 50MA
June 5th, 2012 at 11:49 am
Rick,
re.#109 & #110 from yesterday.
That’s amazing! Thanks for the link.
I might consider trying out them with a smaller mrgn. a/c (for trial).
I am sure they are far superior & transparent as compared to the large bank brokerages in Canada. Wish they were dealing with registered a/c as well but that might require a large back office that they possibly have no intention of opening.
Cheers!
June 5th, 2012 at 11:57 am
Tony #12
break even on WPRT is 26.56 – it has popped above that a couple of times – saw it hit 27.01 for a brief second – how long should I hold if it gets up there again – what do the options tell us?
last time I looked they were selling the calls – ??
June 5th, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Hi Slava. Not sure what I will do with RIM today. It seems to have found a temporary trading range. At least it’s still up for the day.
June 5th, 2012 at 12:02 pm
Michael
Congrats on your move into RIM… I was chicken!
June 5th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Tony
R U buying IMH or just observing… it has alread moved up quite a bit ?
June 5th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Tony
Ooops – typo – that was IMG
June 5th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Tawney – the bears are slowly coming back, still underwater, but not by as much.
June 5th, 2012 at 12:13 pm
CJ
Yes, I see that. Making higher highs in the 5 min. charts…. Darn, sold some too soon.
June 5th, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Hi tony,
The candlestick showing on the SPX yesterday is called a doji. It means indecision. The fact that the wick though was longer on the bottom than on the top meant that the bulls had greater control in yesterday’s price action than the bears did. Today though, as i’m writing this, there is another doji formed on the SPX – we need to see what is formed by the end of trading today to know whether it will be a reversal candlestick or simply another doji.
Today, the SPX had to go up in order to get to its 4 day MA – and it got very close as it got to a high today thus far of 1285 and the 4 day is showing right now as 1286. I do think though a reversal in the SPX is right around the corner. I think it may only be up to the 9 day MA though at this point – and moving higher only after the Greek elections have taken place and more certainty then is in the market re the Eurozone.
Also, the Fed this Thursday could have an effect too of whether the SPX goes higher than the 9 day MA – but at this point, the rallies are still being sold off rather than dips being bought up
Hope this helps tony
Eve
June 5th, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Tony, GMSA, Canuck, Martine… anyone
If, or should I say when (as I do expect) a summer bounce occurs – what sectors do you think would be the strongest for a short term up move.
I am thinking of the dividend stocks… badly beaten and everyone wants the divies.
June 5th, 2012 at 12:20 pm
gmsa,
ECB could very well drop their base rate by 25 BP even if they have been reluctant to do so for the longest time. Mr Draghi’s approach may differ from Mr Trichet. We will find out tomorrow. The markets are awaiting some clear indication by Bernake for QE3. Will his statement provide more clarity at this stage? I tend to agree with you that it could be too early, but there seems to be more bullishness for the miners currently in the market. I am also painfully holding HGD. My timing has been poor to say the least. Would have held HGU all along I would be in the money today. June and July are not normally good months for gold, but miners have been until recently very depressed and they have just experienced a strong bounce. Mr. Bernake’s statement this Thursday is crucial for any sense of direction. Markets seem to be in a waiting stance at the moment.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. This is greatly appreciated.
June 5th, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Lin
#7 – is that really you??? where is the link to your tweets, please.
June 5th, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Hi Martine: Thanks so much for bringing that to my attention
I have Ron/BC’s charts saved as well, but hadn’t seen it yet! Ron….if you read this, thanks a lot for your comment, very thoughtful of you:) I wonder if that means that we won’t get through 11.00, or that it may just take a few attempts….we have had two tries now? Have a great day 
June 5th, 2012 at 12:29 pm
UVXY forming a triangle pattern – lower highs and higher lows – but what does it mean when it completes – break out one way or another? I wish I could remember this stuff!!!
June 5th, 2012 at 12:36 pm
CJ
WOW. Just catching up on the board notes…. funny how NEW posts squeeze in on the older posts. So, now I look and see unfortunate changes to bears.
June 5th, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Hi Tawny. I’m not sure that the dividend payers have been badly beaten, tho some of the insurers have not faired well. If there’s a summer rally, I would expect the badly beaten to perform strongly, like the metals, energy and tech. I would also expect the gold miners and agricultural stocks to perform well during their seasonal strength (usually starting in July/August).
June 5th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Martine,
You’re welcome! Sorry for the typo in your name at the top of my post…just noticed.
For now the gold is bound by 1600-1650 range. Gold bulls will have to work harder to prove past firday’s move.
I hear you about your hgd long position…but then again, aren’t we all bound by our own beliefs? At times we try testing those boundaries & may even cross those lines but it ultimately may bring more pain as we know we went beyond our limits/beliefs.
Oh well, less than 48hrs. for those events…then there will be more/new deadlines & milestone to follow & watch…
Feel like a hamster already?! I do… spinning all these many wheels simultaneously, wish Tony would take me along with his family on a Free European Vacation!
.
Tawny,
re. your Q. at #28
Its one of the things that I’ve yet to work on…may be this w-e, if time permits?
As Don V. has written few times & it’s evident with these off late moves in USD by higher highs in DXY, that the SPX earnings are getting revised lower. Somewhere I was reading the range is 95-105. Q. is what PE and which sector will have lesser impact (for a long position)? Importers of raw goods from outside and selling to their own nationals? many fundamental thoughts…no clear direction yet.
One other thing that comes to my mind, as a contrarian, is when you mention ‘high div. payers’ – I believe that lot of air will come out from this sector soon, just like everyone was calling for the death to the bond markets in late feb/march & every portf. mgr. was saying overweight techs. around the same time. From what height & when remains the question. From the same angle, when I hear extreme bearish views these days on Euro it frightens me. Now where is my ‘crystal ball’?
June 5th, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Tawny and CJ
I posted last night.
June 5th, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Tawny
sector to be in the bounce is gold
look at gdx, 10$ move
June 5th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
CJ,
Check out Hamilton’s E-wave analysis update on WPT – updated today. They’ve been following it closely the past month.
http://www.hamiltonewave.com/2012/06/wpt-westport-innovations-update-2-7794/
Tight stops, but potential.
June 5th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Lin
Hey, there. Thanks. I have requested follow (Andie is the name there) so please accept me. Lin, which sectors do you see come back strong now? Thanks.
By the way you are beautiful!
June 5th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Here is Lin’s Tweet – have a look to see how lovely she is!
https://twitter.com/#!/LinYingjun
June 5th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Tony, Michael, gmsa
Thanks for your responses re sectors that will move.
If we go by thee strength today – that would be for the TSX – Energy, Materials, Utilities. For S&P – Financials (I am in the bear FAZ, pooh!), Info Tech, Utilities and Energy. We will likely hear Shiteside’s view.
June 5th, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Now I need lessons on Twitter – later……..
June 5th, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Oh my, just saw an ugly typo in my post #40. The S-Key is right below the W-key – that should be Whiteside…. oops.
June 5th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
CJ
once you have the nickname of someone to follow you simply write @nickname and you follow that person,
I haven’t used it but browsed thru it, but here goes nothing if you want to be friends you click the follow button and if the person’s as an open account you automatically become his Tweeting friend, otherwise you ask to be his/her friend.
the thing that I don’t like about it is that you more often then none are following one person at a time, instead of seeing everyone that has something to say(just like here)
June 5th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
gmsa
I hear your fears. I have had these fears since last year and it has cost me a lot of lost opportunity as I really did not ride the short-term bull. My fears which are well founded have not gone away – but the market will not listen to me. DAMN!
At the end of UpTrend (safer to type than his name – see #40) Stephen puts the sign up again. DANGER Never Ask Why. With that, the market today, Lin’s post yesterday that she see’s oversold rally, Bradley date imminent; well I am going to go with the flow. Selling off my bears gradually to get best price I can. B esides, it’s summer and I want to be outdoors like Canuck.
June 5th, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Tony
Re following posters, Lin is not posting here now so tis is the way to pick up her thoughts (tweets)… she certainly is not the only one I will follow. But being able to hear what she thinks is an added bonus.
June 5th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Tony, so what’s next for Osisko? $9.50? I sold too early.
June 5th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Teri,
You are welcome.
gmsa,
If Bernake indicates more clearly that more QE is on it way, it will mean more pain for HGD. We will find out very soon. I feel like a hamster spinning its wheel as well!
Tawny,
Nothing feel safe these days!! Energy stocks are cheap, but they can get cheaper as you know if the crude keeps going down. Gold stocks look much better right now, but normally volatile in June and July. I am looking at a pullback before buying, but it could be a good opportunity. Yield-driven stocks are still holding quite well, but they are in many instances too rich with so many people cahsing yield. Markets are tough and more downside are likely even if a bounce is possible. I would be patient.
June 5th, 2012 at 2:24 pm
TONY – Thank you for #43 – will work on that after hours…
CAN U PLEASE LOOK AT MY #20????
June 5th, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Slava
Fly me the the moon,
OSK.to
if you simply follow Ron/BC RSI(14) you would be in osk as since june 1st.
If you recall back in december I mentioned RY.to low volume
here is the chart posted back in dec-jan
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&st=2010-06-30&en=2011-12-9&id=p03562662114&a=250687902
look at that nov 24 low volume so low that was your buying opportunity it moved from 43 to 59
will osk move as much as we had an unusual low volume back on may 28th
can’t tell the future but one thing I can say is that the good companies that don’t get into trouble will reward investors heavily.
June 5th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
CJ
are you sure your asking me about wprt its at 28$ or +20% today.
June 5th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Martine
Thank you so much for your post. I have been very impressed with Bradley Siderograph for this year so far as I did comparisons with the S&P ups and downs and it has been obedient to the stars, shall we say. If the next move is right we will be bottoming around now and move up mid June to end July… from there on it is down trending all year, witha few short term ups as it descends. Of course, it could be wrong, but I do not want to be on the wrong side if I can help it.
Gold stocks will be a good buy if there is some cash being printed.
Guess I would rather be on the side lines than lose any more money being caught on the wrong side holding levg’d etfs.
June 5th, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Is the herd driven again to the slaughter house?
Is this another great shorting opportunity?
Did anyone notice that 150k shares lot dropping the price on GG at @ 11:52?
Damn those HFTraders & their gazillion collocated super fast machines.
Damn all this much work…
June 5th, 2012 at 2:40 pm
oops cj
wpt.to is at 28.05
wprt 26.97
still 20% in one day I would wait and see because if options are right 33$ to 37$,
have a trailing stop, thats my recommendation, if tomorrow wind blows in the other direction you will be on the good side of things but I think by october you can see that 33-37 target be fufilled(but I think it will happen alot sooner.
once it reaches 32 don’t be scared taking 50% and then for every 1$ up you take an 10% of the table.
thats how I would go about it.
June 5th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Lin,
Not sure who you want on your Twitter account but I sent a request just in case it’s wider than known friends. The request photo has a small dog with a card next to her.
June 5th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
CJ Tawny
Young Girls
have you ever taken down my email address
June 5th, 2012 at 3:04 pm
TONY #50 – yOU SAID DO NOT BE SO QUICK TO GET OUT OF THIS ONE – TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN TO GET OUT? oops – not intending to shout – sorry!
June 5th, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Tony #55 – don’t think I ever saw it Tony
June 5th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Slava,
CLB……… up 5.00 over the last 2 days
Still no volume in the calls or puts
What a straange one………
June 5th, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Hey Rol Lew,
Thx again for that CMG option analysis yesterday. I read it 1st thing this morning and was very pleased to learn the moving parts while protecting the buck.
FB is giving fun too. FB has far more liquidity as opposed to CMG.
Hope you’re having a good day.
June 5th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Thanks for #53 Tony – just 42 shares, so not looking for a fortune – tempting to grab anything positive (My “Gut” always on the bird in the hand side!)
June 5th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
CJ
Ok lets rephrase
Since 4MA ias at 24.28 the 4MA and price have to tag, so either the open is around current price or higher and moves lower or price opens on the 4MA and moves up.
so we are stuck with three choices we either sell before the close, and miss the 1st half hour up move or keep it know and wait for tomorrow to see price gap up and pull back to around the 4MA or price opens on the 4MA at the end of tomorrow ends near todays high and miss price move from 27 to 33$
I would sell 50% now and see how tomorrow plays out.
if price opens on the 4MA I buy if price opens where it closed today or higher I would wait 9.45 to 10am to sell out as price will pull back to the 4MA.
but price could decide to stay at these levels.and wait for the 4MA to move in near todays high and then price will move even higher.
this is all the different choices we have to deal with.
June 5th, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Tawny, Paul
Thanks. I will always like read your post on tweeter.:)
June 5th, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Rol Lew,
Today I was going through my old stox lists and found these.
Just FYI…
ABH, UFS, TTM, TM, GT, SNE, KMX, C, JPM
Mainly, for shorting as those charts might tell you. Various reasons for the headwinds that their businesses are facing.
Too early to add FB yet
June 5th, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Rol Lew
you want a strange stock
tnh
options not found.
the only reason I see behind this is the fact that they pay a hefty dividend.
June 5th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
CJ
here you go,
starwind1973@gmail.com
June 5th, 2012 at 3:33 pm
mick, Michael, so when are we getting together in Vancouver?
June 5th, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Oh and don’t worry Its not my main email address.
June 5th, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Been a while since we seen mick and ron/ab
June 5th, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Tony, Michael, others – what are your thoughts on hmu.to or any other global base metals etf? HMU was highly correlated to hgu until mid May. It seems that rio, fcx, fm.to, tck.b and other major holdings which hmu tracks are ripe for some kind of a turnaround soon. Thoughts?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HMU.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p78454067725
June 5th, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Thanks for #66 Tony and for the WPRT choices!
June 5th, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Rol, yes, CLB is indeed a strange one, as is IOC. Einhorn has a very large short position in IOC – he is losing on that one.
June 5th, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Nice bump in Trican today.
June 5th, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Re #70
Interesting analysis of teck on the stock charts blog.
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/canada/2012/05/canadas-favorite-miner-sits-on-support.html#more
June 5th, 2012 at 3:52 pm
mick, just for you
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p32017324413&a=268840588
June 5th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Michael, I sold my RIM at $10.37 today.. chart looks bad and I’m too afraid to hold.
June 5th, 2012 at 4:18 pm
re 75 FCX
As an exercise in analysis I would appreciate some input on the FCX chart from #75 above:
What I see is a stock in a down trend – since February.
The elder impulse bars have been blue for about 2 weeks, this means indecision.
The stock closed below its 18MA but above both the 4 and 9MA this means it might wander a bit over the 18MA but will probably get jerked back towards the 9/4MA.
Not oversold on the RSI, or STO.
Unless I’m missing something, this chart says, don’t go long, AND don’t short until some indication that something is changing happens?
Don’t use CCI so not sure what this indicates.
June 5th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Gmsa,
Coincidence…I was going to short sony today, but it opened UP 3%
So I will keep watching to see if it will break down again.
I just have this feeling that the May 2nd short party is over.
I dillied to long with JPM, but I will be watching th next few days.
AUY is trying to tell me something?? but I am refusing to listen –
stubborn, mule-headed tool.
I saw your CMG to UP today ——- gasp!
Those who fight and run away,
Live to fight another day…
Brave men, they die but once
But a coward dies many times before his death……..
Yep – I think the short party is over.
June 5th, 2012 at 4:28 pm
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ABH.TO,UFS,TTM,TM,GT,SNE,KMX,C,JPM,INDL,INDZ,AUY|B|A12,26,9
sony up today
many others undecided
bottoms forming?
June 5th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Rol, how do you create multiple charts on the same page? I’d like to see tck, rio, bhp, bbl, aa, fm.to side by side (if you have a minute). They are top holdings of hmu.
June 5th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Slava #73 – thanks for noticing! Has a long way to go though – still under -$3,125.00
on that one!
June 5th, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Rol, I got it.. I’m seeing some base building in fm.to, fcx, tck.. HMU was at +3.69% today. I know the volume is non-existent but I don’t think it’s a problem since they need to move the bid according to the movement in the underlying portfolio. Your thoughts?
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?TCK,RIO,BHP,BBL,FCX,AA,FM.TO|C|P14,3,3
June 5th, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Now thats what I cal “Turn-around Tuesday”
P1…….- 48.00…(VXX.TO)
P2……..202.02…(WPRT)
P3……..134.10
P4………24.19
TFSA……369.00…(Thanks to TCW.TO)
=====================================
TOTAL GAINS $681.31…(No Trades/No Divs)Hardly any red ink LOL
June 5th, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Slava
Nice Darvas Box for FCX. If it breaks out of that, might be a good time to enter for a few days run. altogether good day on the markets, I bought some Telus shares a couple of days ago for a decent couple of % gain to date, not too bad for a low beta stock. Other than that just been trying to day trade some weekly options on Lnkd/AAPL . Hope trading is going well for you, you have not been on the board as much these days.
Whenever you and Michael (SQUA) are available, let me know, I am free these days.
June 5th, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Tawny,
I hope you are enjoying gardening. Is it possible for you to maybe post Lins summary outlook here ( say once a week) as I do not have twweter & not planning to get one.
Cannuck,
Do you think BPO is a good buy for trade here at < 17.
Rollew
Thanks for the ans on sun. Still trying to digest & if I read & do not grasp again then will post follow up questions.
BTW
1. What is auy telling you??
2.Often I have been told to trade ( write cc) options on US xcng rather than MX bcs of spreads. Hence, I looked at equivalent stocks & did not find any diff in spreads btw bid/ask price ( 10 cents on both sides) on popular big cap stocks eg ry,abx, cnq ( us wider spread) & cnr ( even wider spreads on both xcng). I blv you trade in US, hence, can you tell me the advantage of holdng cnd holdings ( in C$) but trading options in US xccng.
Thanks to all in advance
June 5th, 2012 at 5:15 pm
mick, re “you have not been on the board as much these days” – it’s because I’m devastated about not being in HGU as it proceeded to move from $6.15 to $9.62 today
June 5th, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Slava
Unless you have a crystal ball, you would not know that was going to happen, even so, you might not of sold your holdings. Don’t look back!
June 5th, 2012 at 5:32 pm
mick, good advice, I’m trying not to.. I’ve also curtailed my trading to 1/5th of the previous level of activity. Quantity is not quality. Patience is key.
How about my post#67?
June 5th, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Slava
Re: #67
Hopefully Michael can let us know when he might be in town next? It’s easy for me to get downtown and you live there. Ever been to Joey Burrard?
This chart is for you:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HGU.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p64962817599&a=268847490
June 5th, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Muntazir, I am glad those short yamana puts worked out.
Eve, thx for the feed back. I like gdx, as well. I feel
that greece will screw up the timing this year through
an early fear factor infusion – which is happening already?
Muntazir, you have rehearsed the first step. Do it again, and
again, until you get the stock put to you at a silly net price.
You are already sitting on a 59 cent discount per share.
At some point your “luck” will run out, and you will be put
the stock. No sweat. Remember the post I did explaining to
Martine how NOT to lose more than 6% on her gold stock.
That will be step 2 …. Buy a long dated deep in the money
put, too cover your a$$ets.
Since you expect to stock to go up like crazy, it will eventually
recoup your insurance paid. Or so you hope. But if it does not –
the most you will lose is 6%. Do your calculations. There is no
free lunch. Trading is risky. But this way there is no possibility
of blowing out your account.
You have already been rehearsing step 3 too. Which is, when the stock
has gone up a bit, sell an OTM call, to take some small change off the
table.
All of this is pretty low risk, “simmons beauty rest” trading, because
you always get a good night’s sleep, and you do not have to worry about
elections, earthquakes, the rise of the 4th reich, tsunamis, iran, israel,
or whatever – all because somebody invented PUTS.
Hi Rollew,
Ok I copied & now few clarifications so I know I understood correctly.
1.Did you doubt yamana puts might not work out ( I had some doubts)
2.How do you see Greek affecting Gold seasonality i.e do you think it will come early??
3.Your suggestion is I write a put again ( maybe for sept as I am expecting yri to be down around 12-14 in jul & upto 17-19 in sept) i.e write cash secured puts as opposed to spread. Rpt process until stock put to me.
4. Once put to me I should do a Collar with slight OTM calls & deep in OTM puts.
At all stages revise my steps if my view of the stock changes. ( in brackets my views).
Final question: do you see any flaws/drawback in this plan??
I am learning a lot & hopefuully one day I can capitalise on the info/knowledge.
Thanks in advance
June 5th, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Hi mick/nv and Slava. I actually will be in Van tomorrow but for another wine and cheese put on by Canaccord. Joey’s is such a cool place while usually incredibly crowded.
Although I have been primarily been doing US trading (bought SOXX on Friday and sold this aft), the metals look interesting. I prefer ZMT.to and will look for a US counterpart.
June 5th, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Slava
Ntr
Slava, what’s your schedule like? Michael, what time are you free?
June 5th, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Slava,
Yes, I think some bottoms are forming, even in the oils
each rally has to start with one up day… maybe today is it?
Have to wait & see what develops with the news…
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IMO,CVE,SU,CNQ,XLE,OIH,WLL,CXO,GEOI,CRK,APC,COG|B|V25
Look at 2 mths of data
…………………….
Muntazir,
auy is telling me….
don’t over analyze this
25% in three weeks
what are you waiting for? Christmas?
But as I said yesterday, I am waiting
for the first week in July. I have
this wish for it to come back to 13 by then.
But if the move lasts until august, I will still not
screw up the whole move.
Yep – I noticed last weekend that there were better
prices for some trades on http://www.me.org as compared
to the usa. That was an eye-opener.
But with IB I pay only 75 cents per
contract, not 9.95 + 1.50 per contract.
So 20 contracts, $30.00 vs $80, in & out…. it will add up
over the year, especially if you like doing spreads, with
each leg being another 9.95.
So I stopped looking at me.org years ago.
June 5th, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Michael
Ntr
Didn’t Slava say she wanted to go to the Blue Water Cafe?
June 5th, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Steve #38 – Missed your post earlier – have hung on overnight – not up on the a,b,c’s but all the indicators remain positive, including the June options – so here goes!
June 5th, 2012 at 6:26 pm
NTR
Michael, I can’t do tomorrow night (sorry) – I have to attend a retirement party after work. When are you in Vancouver next? Joey’s is crazy busy most of the time (and loud).. Do you and mick like sushi? How about Kamei Royal on Burrard/Alberni? Evenings of June 12-15, 18, 19 or after June 26 work for me.
June 5th, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Slava/Michael
NTR
I like almost any type of food, anytime on or after the 15th is fine with me.
June 5th, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Yes Muntazir, even today I am in denial about the move
in the golds.
I think germany will find more money to throw into the grease,
and that will cause golds to move up in july. What is wrong with
this idea is,
1. I should believe my eyes
2. Who made me an economics analyst?
That is my problem with selling puts here,
I expect it to come down, & if that happens, even
the september short puts will be hurt. Too risky
for me, but I would take that chance in July,
if it comes back down first.
Yes – once you have the stock, it is time to play defence.
……………………………….
OK, as you can see, I have been wrong for the last 3 weeks
with these golds. But I still have time to get it right,
I have until the end of august.
June 5th, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Hi Slava and mick/nv. I haven’t been to Kamei Royale in a hundred years! Let’s say June 19. It shouldn’t be crowded on a Tuesday.
June 5th, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Michael, sounds good
mick?
June 5th, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Slava re: 82
I like your candle glance for copper. I’ve modified it a bit, mainly adding $COPPER – product, and $SSEC as an indication of China as the big buyer..
Could anyone please let me know how the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse supply or price could be indicated? Any other suggestions of what could be indicated on this candleglance would be welcome as well!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?TCK/B.TO,RIO,BHP,FCX,AAUKY,FM.TO,$SSEC,ZMT.TO,$COPPER,IVN.TO|C|P14,3,3
June 5th, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Slava/Michael
NTR
Have it marked in my calendar, around 6pm???? Slava, what time are you off?
June 5th, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Michael & Slava
Congratulations on rim
June 5th, 2012 at 8:11 pm
NTR
mick/Michael
Let’s make it 6:45, June 19th at Kamei Royal. Please confirm and I’ll call to make a reservation under Michael for three
How exciting!
June 5th, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Hi Tony,
I looked at mx & saw VRX 2nd most traded options. I do not follow the stock but looks like somebody owns 10630 shares & has done collars for Jul & Oct.
Hi rollew
Just that I get it right your analysis shows gold stocks will go up in jul & will be down in sept? Hence, reluctant to write/sell puts??. No problem, I will wait
June 5th, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Slava
fcx , fm.to, HMU.to, gte.to
here is my view on these 4 stocks
FCX
is a buy here macd H has been slightly moving higher since May 29th, and this when price moved from 33 to 31 this is GOooooddd for a trade, exit if it fails 30.89 I would have a few bids here and there because I would love to be invested in around 31.25 to 31.50 but as the french saying goes you can’t have the butter and the money for the butter at the same time. so I would buy some even at 32$ (I’m still below that 6% stop loss.) If I should sell the 32$ at 30.89 I would generate a loss of 3.6%
FM.to
My indicators are negative so here is a risky trade, 17.35 is where I hope we can hold, but I think we could get 16.8-16.9 but I would prefer buying above the 18MA. the 4 is back below the 18 and the 9 is not far off to cross back below the 18MA.
FM is more volatile then fcx so it could outperform it, on a long shot rather be in fcx at this point in time.
HMU
love where its standing price wise as it held the 6.68 low, but hate the volume on it less then 4000 shares today good grief, but here the low down,
HMU MACD H is above 0 so this to me is people are buying into it, I would like to see it open and close above the 18MA before going long. I feel its going to move just like fcx.
GTE
you asked about this one when price was about a $ higher.
MACD H even if price fell from 5.4 to 4.8 the bars have been holding above 0 so this looks positive
So in general you for fcx, hmu and gte you have the same pattern we are about to complete the second part of the W, fm looks the same but we had the price in the 17.6 area not so long ago, would this be the formation of huge W never seen any one this big
June 5th, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Muntazir, thanks
I invested a small amount so the gain is pretty small yet it’s a gain, profits are always welcome.
Irm, thanks for the amended chart. Here is HMU.. double bottom on May 23 and June 4? Still need a confirmation though.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HMU.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p93245010243
June 5th, 2012 at 8:26 pm
tony, thanks, you are a sweetheart! Too bad you and Eve can’t join us for dinner in Vancouver on June 19th
June 5th, 2012 at 8:43 pm
lrm
SSEC
thx for reminding me where not to look for the future of this market
you know what frightens the most about the shangai composite,
since Nov 11th we have had 6 18/50 cross and a week later price either held its pattern on the 50MA or crossed it and that was the reversal.
now last if copper stock do follow ssec it will take about 1month before we see a reversal look at fcx it held a range from nov to jan while ssec fell in that time frame.
June 5th, 2012 at 8:53 pm
Muntazir,
I don’t know what a collar does but to me it looks like someone sold those 44 puts and bought the 54 calls, this allows him to make some money now and when he takes the trade off he will make more money
if my understanding of the trade by selling the 44put he receives money to then buy a cheaper call when price reaches 54 he can buy back the puts which are worthless(or lets them expire), and sells that 54 call making money on both sides of the aisle.
and he does the same trade 2 in the process.
my question is why do the october trade now, ok simple reflection so if vrx doesn’t move he made money but not that much for the 1st expiration but if it does move he can sell both collars, otherwise we will wait for the second collar to either expire worthless or make a profit.
is this a good understanding of this type of collar.
June 5th, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Hi Tony,
Your way of looking is one way.
What I think is the person owns the share & thinks price will go down btwn now & oct ( probably more in Jul). So he/she sold cc 54, took premium & bought puts for 44. So if stock goes down by jul/oct he can sell his stocks at 44 OR more likely sell the puts & calls would expire worthless. On the other hand if stock goes above 54 it will be called making profit of over $ 4 from todays price & got insurance ( Rol lews word) for protection. Finally if stock stays here the person got protection very cheaply.
I hope its clear bcs now its almost bedtime.
June 5th, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Tony,
This is better english. Summary 1. own stock 2. write cc 3. buy puts all = collar.
http://www.optionseducation.org/strategies_advanced_concepts/strategies/collar.html
I mean link is better explained
June 5th, 2012 at 11:58 pm
Ok muntazir,
Now that I have seen the chart, I see where that trader saw 44 as if price falls below 45 the trader exits, but as smart trader wouldn’t have played with fire that way.
because he has to deal with the 18MA as of now, so I wonder if price will get to 54 before the end of the first expiration or will it hit 44 and if I am right 1000 contracts *100 shares *47$ is 4.7M$, so he either gets out with 5.2M or leaves with 4.4M$
Best way of playing it was back in march/april not now that there is to much uncertainty in the air, because he needs to own the shares, the trade was better buying in october in march/april make the same bet but with 60C/50P collar