Tech Talk for Wednesday June 6th 2012

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday June 6th

U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 7 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are anticipating comments before a Congressional committee tomorrow by Federal Research Chairman Ben Bernanke on the possibility of a third quantitative stimulus program.

Index futures are higher despite actions by Moody’s to downgrade the credit rating of seven German banks and three Austrian banks.

The European Central Bank maintained its overnight lending rate at 1.0%.

The Euro strengthened and the U.S. Dollar weakened on overnight news. Commodity prices rose on U.S. Dollar weakness.

Revised first quarter productivity slipped to -0.9% from a previous estimate of -0.5%. Consensus was -0.7%.

Facebook added $0.30 to $26.17 after JMP Securities initiated coverage on the stock with an Outperform rating. Target is $37.

UnitedHealth added $0.85 to $56.89 after announcing a share buy-back and a dividend increase.

Pulte Group improved $0.26 to $8.42 after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform. Target is $11.

Tempur-Pedic plunged $18.93 to $24.74 after the company cut its earnings guidance.

 

Technical Watch

Unitedhealth Group, Inc. (NYSE:UNH) – $56.89 added 1.5% after increasing its dividend and announcing a share buy-back program. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $53.78 and resistance is at $59.71. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average and moved above its 20 day moving average yesterday. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid-November. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.

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PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) – $8.42 added 3.2% after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform. Target is $11.00. The stock has a mixed technical profile. Intermediate trend is neutral. Support is at $7.63 and resistance is at $10.82. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average, but below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned negative at the end of April. Seasonal influences are mixed in June, but turn positive in July. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 200 day moving average at $6.96.

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Pulte Homes, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) Seasonal Chart

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Interesting Charts

Quiet day yesterday prior to news later this week (e.g. Eurozone meeting, Bernanke’s testimony).

· The S&P 500 Index is bumping its head on its 200 day moving average.

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· The NASDAQ Composite Index managed to move back above its 200 day moving average.

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· The TSX Composite Index is showing signs of outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index for the first time since last September. Seasonal influences for the TSX Composite Index relative to the S&P 500 Index is positive until mid-July.

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Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column

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After a Trading Loss

By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach

www.TradingOnTarget.com

Everything bad that has ever happened in our lives has a loss associated with it. This is why a loss in trading can be so painful. It is not only the loss that is immediately at hand, but it is also the accumulation of all the losses that are in a dark place in your neurology.

In your life you have experienced various intensities of loss. It is how a person recovers from a loss that makes the difference in the way he or she will interpret other losses the rest of their life.

Here are examples of the way you can experience the aftermath of a trading loss:

· You might experience the five levels of grieving – shock, disbelief, anger, acceptance, and recovery. This is a good thing, because those who do go through this process will less likely endure that loss as part of the accumulation of other losses.

· You can put yourself in a loop of re-experiencing several of the loss feelings. When you are in a loop, it builds the intensity of that loss and can make it a permanent scar.

· You can bury the feelings leaving those feelings to be reborn in other future experiences of loss.

· You can go through the process of the pain of loss very quickly gaining valuable knowledge from having the experience of that loss and move on without having the need to carry that pain with you.

· You can go through the pain and decide to do good things to benefit others as a way of recovering from it. In doing so, the feeling transforms into a good feeling about the benefits you are giving to others.

Yes, I understand that you can name horrible, devastating losses that seem insurmountable, and I would empathize with you that from having that experience it would be difficult to carry on, but what are the alternatives? You can make it worse, do the best with what you have, or decide that you will survive and thrive.

Could it get any worse?

Lenny lived a difficult life on a farm with both parents being alcoholics. Lenny was fortunate to have a basketball coach who was tough, but gave him the guidance that would eventually be his salvation.

Coach Bob liked to dabble in the commodities market and invited several of the boys to his home to teach them how they could hedge their crops. Lenny was the only one of his group who carried on to learn the markets. He thought of the time he spent with Coach Bob and his wife as his real home. They unofficially adopted him as their son.

Things at Lenny’s parent’s farm started a downward spiral when there was a major storm that flooded the crops. Lenny’s family lost the farm, his father died of a heart attack and his mother had to accept welfare.

Lenny became exceptionally good at his ability in the markets and Coach Bob set up an account for him of ten thousand to trade. The profits would be split, which would give some financial relief to Lenny and his mother. Coach Bob set up a scholarship fund to supplement the living expenses that Lenny needed even with the scholarship that Lenny received from playing basketball.

Coach Bob picked up Lenny on a holiday from college when he was in his last year. Lenny took over the wheel of the car and there was a head-on collision. Coach Bob died, and Lenny became paraplegic.

I spoke with Lenny on the phone after he attended one of my webinars. His voice was vibrant. His Trader Evaluation was dramatic. What he was looking for was more consistency in his trading. He earned a good living as a trader and married his physical therapist who had two children. What he could not understand was why losses were so painful, even the small ones.

Conclusion

The more you interpret a negative feeling as being a loss, the more you have to allow yourself to go through the stages of grief. If you do not, then your profits will suffer from the sabotage that you incur in your trading. At the other side of that loss there can be a healing that takes you to a higher place if you can find a way to make that loss have a positive outcome for your overall life.

Free Webinar Presented by Adrienne Toghraie

“Modeling Success Qualities of Top Traders”
Tuesday, June 12th at 4:30 pm (NY time)

http://tradingontarget.omnovia.com/registration/pid=21381338917780

 

 

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Using and Trading VIX Volatility Derivatives Futures Options ETF’s and ETN’s

presented by Lawrence G. McMillan

Wednesday, June 6th @ 7:00 pm ET (5:00 GMT)

 

The newest asset class – volatility – has only had listed trading instruments since 2004, when VIX futures were listed on the CBOE Futures Exchange. The growth of derivatives and related products has been tremendous, and these products should be understood and utilized by most traders.
This seminar will cover the basics of VIX futures and options. While they are useful for speculation, their usage is better in spreads and as clues to broad stock market direction. Strategies will be described that take advantage of spreading opportunities that often arise.
In recent years, ETNs and ETFs on these products have proliferated. Descriptions of the basics of the most liquid of these will be given, along with advice on what to avoid and what to look for when trading this somewhat misunderstood aspect of the volatility space. Finally, it will be shown how to use these products to protect a portfolio of stocks.

· The CBOE has called VIX options the single most successful product ever listed.

· VIX derivatives, while extremely useful, are not necessarily straight forward.

· Learn the basics of VIX futures, options, and ETNs.

· Proper valuation of VIX options.

· Use VIX derivatives to protect a stock portfolio.

· Recognize when to use highly profitable spread strategies.

About the Presenter: Lawrence G. McMillan is the author of Options As a Strategic Investment, the best-selling work on stock and index options strategies. He currently authors a unique daily advisory service – Daily Volume Alerts – and also edits and publishes "The Option Strategist", a derivative products newsletter covering equity, index, and futures options. In these capacities, he is the President of McMillan Analysis Corporation, which he founded in 1991. He has spoken on option strategies at many seminars and colloquiums in the United States, Canada, and Europe. In addition, he trades his own account actively, and he manages option-oriented accounts for certain individuals.
Mr. McMillan is the recipient of the Sullivan Award for 2011, awarded by the Options Industry Council in recognition of his contributions to the Options Industry.
Prior to founding his own firm, Mr. McMillan was a proprietary trader at two major brokerage firms – Thomson McKinnon Securities and Prudential-Bache. He initially worked for Bell Telephone Laboratories in Whippany, NJ, from 1972 to 1976. Mr. McMillan holds a B.S. degree in mathematics from Purdue University (1968) and an M.S. in applied mathematics and computer science from the University of Colorado (1972).

FP Trading Desk Headlines

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Why QE III might still be needed despite low Treasury Yields”. Following is a link to the report:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/05/why-qe3-might-still-be-needed-despite-low-treasury-yields/

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Bottoming process can begin: Canaccord Strategist”. Following is a link to the report:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/05/bottoming-process-can-begin-canaccord-strategist/

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base

Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:

 

RUSSELL 2000 Index (^RUT) Seasonal Chart

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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

 

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC June 5th 2012

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Sponsored By...



74 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday June 6th 2012”

  1. Rol Lew Says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAHCe2cOmrg

    whiteside – the pros have taken control of gold, but not silver, just yet…..

  2. Rol Lew Says:

    the collar……….

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jhBGQb8A5M&feature=relmfu

  3. Slava Says:

    HGU hit $9.96 today.. wow.

  4. Slava Says:

    I should practice what I preach.. I started talking about hmu when it was $6.77 and it’s at $7.36 now.

  5. tony Says:

    rol lew

    was just a matter of time for slv to fly,

    up 4.37%

  6. CJ Says:

    Out of the bears at great expense to the management – in a big hole now.
    While I was struggling with that WPRT made a big bounce up but now is way down;

  7. Slava Says:

    tony, slv still a buy in your books? How about First majestic?

  8. Tawny Says:

    CJ

    Sorry to learn you didn’t get out of bears yesterday. I was mostly out. Wish I listed to my gut feelings… I have strong intuition and going to download that book to learn more… hopefully it tells one how to tune in and trust. See your face on Lin’s Tweet.

  9. Canuck2004 Says:

    OK, markets having a nice little turn around here. Bounce from oversold position.

    MARGIN:

    I bought back all of my REITS on open, and some new ones. They seemed to have performed the best in this correction, so I’m comfortable buying them back, some cheaper, some the same, some a bit more…. basically about the same where I was last week. I took profits in most of these, so resetting the clock really.

    I also added POW, which I did not own in this account. As a rule, whenever one can buy this name with a better than 5% yield, it’s a good buy. Low Beta, so… no rocket to the moom, but no Titanic either.

    I bought nothing else.

    Watching markets to see what develops.

    RRSP:

    Well looks like I negotiated a buy-out for my work contract to take to my 60th in Feb of 2013… deal not signed yet tho… so I will be sweeping yields into a short term Govt. Bond ETF (no fee) until I have at least half a year cash sitting there, so IF I need it next year, I have something to draw on. Once done, I will return to buying stocks. Don’t want to be waiting every month for yields to come in so I can draw on it…I’ll get frustrated and sell stocks, which is NOT what I want to do. I just want to tap some of that yield and leave my principal in there for a rainy day, or age 71.

    I designed it that way, so I must tap it monthly. IF I don’t need the money I can toss it in my TFSA or my wife’s TFSA, or buy term deposit at the bank. Either way I have to bleed that RRSP before I’m forced to at 71.

  10. Canuck2004 Says:

    One more thing, I only bought back REIT names that have a positive trend line, meaning trading above their respective 200 DMA, where the 50 DMA is above the 200 DMA. Stock can break its 50 DMA, but it’s no big deal in a major drop like we’ve seen in the past little while.

    Watch Dennis Mitchell on BNN, Monday Market Call. He knows his stuff.

  11. Slava Says:

    Watching ulta to see if it will develop a double top here.. Also, it’s far away from 4day ma.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ULTA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07284622802

  12. Michael Says:

    Hi Canuck2004. Woohoo, we’ll have to have a party for you in February! Just out of curiosity, why POW over PWF? I bought some GWO on Monday figuring the yield was the best of the three.

  13. CJ Says:

    Tawney #8 – Yesterday/today – it would not have made much difference Tawney;

    I am all thumbs in the morning trying to catch the pop-ups and downs – I have not figured out a method yet; – as you have gathered – I’m not a morning person LOL!

    NTR: I tried searching for you on Twitter, but no luck – did not see you on lin’s tweet?

  14. tony Says:

    tony Says:
    June 5th, 2012 at 3:21 pm

    CJ
    Ok lets rephrase
    Since 4MA ias at 24.28 the 4MA and price have to tag, so either the open is around current price or higher and moves lower or price opens on the 4MA and moves up.

    so we are stuck with three choices
    we either sell before the close, and miss the 1st half hour up move or keep it know and wait for tomorrow to see price gap up and pull back to around the 4MA or price opens on the 4MA at the end of tomorrow ends near todays high and miss price move from 27 to 33$

    I would sell 50% now and see how tomorrow plays out.
    if price opens on the 4MA I buy if price opens where it closed today or higher I would wait 9.45 to 10am to sell out as price will pull back to the 4MA.
    but price could decide to stay at these levels.and wait for the 4MA to move in near todays high and then price will move even higher.

    this is all the different choices we have to deal with.

  15. tony Says:

    Slava

    I recommended SLW to a friend for the simple reason that the 50MA is at 28.78 and she could take a 5% blow at 27.89 if she wanted to,
    fr you would have to take an 8% blow.

  16. tony Says:

    CJ

    I would sell 50% now and see how tomorrow plays out.
    if price opens on the 4MA I buy if price opens where it closed today or higher I would wait 9.45 to 10am to sell out as price will pull back to the 4MA.
    but price could decide to stay at these levels.and wait for the 4MA to move in near todays high and then price will move even higher.

    this is why you have stops especially if it moves up compared to the close more often then none price falls to tag the 4MA since.

  17. CJ Says:

    Tony # 14 – I read it several times Tony clipped it/pasted it/saved it/ read it again….
    Chose to hold WPRT for now (underwater again) but was struggling to get my 3 bears sold and documented and missed the big pop up on WPRT. Used to be a fair multitasker, but no longer :( – anyway I still have option #4 Hang on and hope/pray! Now I have even more losses to make up.

  18. tony Says:

    CJ

    Tawny twitter account is andie goudie

  19. CJ Says:

    Tony #16 – NO! not selling at a loss; it WILL return!

  20. Canuck2004 Says:

    #12-Michael

    I bought POW for 2 reasons, one I just sold PWF in same account at a minor loss, and it is lower Beta than PWF. Everything I bought today, except for BPO, is low beta.

  21. tony Says:

    CJ

    more often then none, when you get these big 21% pops, the next day you have an extra few quarters to make, and before the west coast opens for trading you want to be out, because we know for a fact the 4MA is the trading vehicle just buy making that extra $ allows you to buy more shares, when back to the 4MA.

  22. CJ Says:

    Tony #18 – Thanks I sent her a Tweet!

    I honestly do not know where to put my money today *sigh* ADVFN is timing me out, too, frustrations all ’round.

    Should have sold the bears 2 days ago and bought into Visa – been watching it dip – now taking off again….

  23. Tim Says:

    Hi Canuck2004,
    I’ve been following your method, quite impressive… do you mind sharing with us which REIT did you buy back?

  24. Eve Says:

    Hi Ania,

    Just wanted to let you know that the US dollar as of yesterday, gave a sell signal on stochastics as it dipped below the 80 line. Recall I wrote on Monday to your question on the US dollar that it looked like it was rolling over on stochastics but still had some room it could go higher. Yesterday (Tuesday), it did go higher BUT despite going higher, stochastics still rolled over and then gave the sell signal. So, it looks now like the US dollar should fall further – maybe just to the mid keltner but possibly lower due to the Bradley date taking effect in the near term which should have the markets going up until end of July – during that time, the US dollar should sell down. Here’s the chart of yesterday’s close for the US dollar index:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p35099233625

    Hope this helps Ania :)

    Eve

  25. tony Says:

    CJ

    post 16, oops

    selling 50% this was yesterday trade, the point was you had to sell yesterday so you could invest more money today.

    this is why I stick to 10 companies so that my head doesn’t spin at the end of the day.

  26. Eve Says:

    tony,

    Just as an addition to my response to you yesterday regarding the candlestick showing on Monday for the SPX:

    Yesterday’s candlestick by end of the day was showing a “continuation” candlestick – this meant more upside to come as it “continues” on from what yesterday’s price action did on the SPX.

    eve

  27. tony Says:

    Eve

    thx for the update,

    Its just those candletsticks can be overwhelming.
    I was rooting for a little bull market since monday price didn’t tag the 4MA on the spx,

    now only concern is about the 18MA will it be resistance as it was a great support since January.

  28. Slava Says:

    Hi dear Eve, please let us know if or when you short Ulta .. I think there is a good chance it’s a double top here above $96… at the same time volume is realy high so perhaps it will manage to move higher.

    Also, your thoughts on HGD? I was away in meetings in missed buying it when HGU reversed.

  29. Michael Says:

    Hi all. FYI, Dennis Gartman thinks that copper is merely bouncing here and he’s only long 10% S&P exposure. Let’s see if he’s wrong again!

  30. Freddebuoy Says:

    Canuck2004…Two stocks I’m wondering if you have any thoughts on:

    Alaris Royalty (AD.TO) and Firm Capital (FC.TO). AD has a yield of 5.62 and FC, 7.18%. Both are low beta and neither has had the 50DMA cross below the 200DMA in almost four years. POW on the other hand, has seen the 50 break below the 200 twice in the same period.

  31. CJ Says:

    Tony #24 – do you mean put more money into WPRT now that it is way down?

    You are still confident it will get back up then? I have under 10 stocks to follow, and this morning was just trying to follow 4, but they move faster than me. I find my best bet is to buy the night before – but my crystal ball doesn’t work either LOL.

  32. CJ Says:

    Catch a falling Knife????

    A director was selling shares yesterday :( Maybe he will buy some back at these prices?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ANR&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p51005979179

  33. Paula/NS Says:

    Canuck2004,

    Re: #9

    I’ve been thinking of taking money out of my RRSP gradually over the next few years and pay the tax rather than get hit with mandatory amounts at 71. Is there an amount or % that works best?

    Thanks,
    Paula

  34. Eve Says:

    Hi Slava,

    I don’t think ULTA is doing a double top – it’s price target today was raised to $110 from $105 as it beat earnings last night. So, i think it will pull back a bit to get close to its 4 day MA but i think that with the markets going up a bit right now, that ULTA will go up too! ULTA could / should pull back to around $90 to $91 (4 day right now is at $89.04 BUT will be a higher price tomorrow)! And once it pulls back a bit, I believe it will go higher and ultimately reach $100 in the near term. So, just be careful now with this one as its earnings report was good and had better guidance for Q2 too!

    Eve

  35. tony Says:

    Cj

    What I meant in my previous post was …

    had you traded as I mentioned yesterday,

    you would have sold 50% of the shares yesterday and the rest today if it opened at the same price, or higher.

    by selling all as you know price will fall back to the 4MA and there you would buy back so you would had 50% instead of buying back the amount of shares you previously owned you would have been able to buy a few extra shares. with that extra $ in hand.

    i.e you buy 50 shares of ABC at 50$ it moves up to 60$ you sell all your shares for a total of 3000$, price comes back to 50$ now instead of buying 50 shares you can afford to buy 60 shares because of the extra 500$ you have in hand.

  36. Eve Says:

    Hi tony,

    Yes, candlesticks can be challenging when you’re just starting out in learning how to read them and knowing different candlesticks and cs patterns too! I was in the same boat when I started learning about them back in 2009 (I was forever consulting my book that has a section in it on candlesticks). Once you do get to know them though, they become quite easy to recognize what is going on with whatever cs you’re seeing on a chart and know with somewhat certainty, where a price will go next. For example:

    on Monday, the CS showing on the SPX showed that the bulls took control that day from the bears (as I wrote to you yesterday) – so, that told the tale that the bears on the SPX were “weakening”. After you see that kind of cs showing on a chart at the BOTTOM of a downtrend, you always want to wait for confirmation the next day to see what cs shows that next day – and if you get an up day (after seeing a cs where the bulls took control), and that up day shows a “continuation” cs for example rather than say an “indecision” one (a doji), then THAT is your confirmation on that second day of the prices continuing in the current direction they were showing on that second day. Further confirmation of the first cs from Monday being possibly a reversal in price direction of the current trend (ie. down in this case of the SPX) will come from other indicators on the chart of like showing if the stock or index or whatever you’re looking at, is oversold on stochastics or the keltner or the bollinger band etc. – or whatever indicator you choose to look at – the more indicators you have that show the stock or index etc. is oversold WHEN you’ve gotten that kind of cs as was seen on monday, the more it is of a confirmation that the price is about to reverse direction – then you just need to wait for the second day to see if you get the confirmation cs of such a price reversal – and we did indeed get that kind of cs yesterday on the SPX!

    So, anyway, if you spend some time looking into them more (IF you’re interested I mean), you’ll get the hang of how they work :)

    Well, price went above the 9 day today on the SPX daily chart (9 day showing as 1305 and SPX got to 1310.94 thus far) – and the 18 day is near by at 1313. So, yes, it should most likely get to the 18 day MA and possibly go to the mid keltner too of 1320 area – and after that, I guess we’ll see if it can get beyond that 1320 area to get to its next resistance of 1333 (price resistance) and 1340 (also, price resistance). Then comes the 50 day MA at 1360 :) (top of keltner is currently at 1366).

    Eve

  37. Eve Says:

    Hi Michael,

    Do you subscribe to the Gartman letter?

    I had his trial 1 month subscription to his daily letter back in 2009 or 2010 – but I didn’t find it very useful info for the most part. I find it quite an entertaining letter though as well as thought provoking :) So, it was interesting to read but not very helpful for me for trading as back then I was only trading gold and oil stocks – and most of the time, he got gold wrong in what he was calling for ;)

    Eve

  38. tony Says:

    Eve

    thx for the note.

  39. tony Says:

    Eve

    I think this market is going to hit 1400 by the end of june, if there are more bulls then we could even reach 1420.

  40. Michael Says:

    Hi Eve. Nope, Gartman was on CNBC. I guess it would be worth getting his newsletter just to do the opposite of what he says. Not sure why he’s called the “Commodity King”…

    On another note, and further to Slava’s HGD request, it’s interesting how gold miners are behaving today. Do think that this could be the beginning of the June malaise for gold? Thanks.

  41. CJ Says:

    Tony #34 – Smart idea – why didn’t I think of that LOL – so next time it pops high – I will sell – but why just 50% ??? Costs me 9.95 for every $US trade. Anyway, I don’t imagine it will get up there today again.

  42. Eve Says:

    hi tony,

    I think that is too optimistic for end of June – it might get to 1400 (or more) by end of July when the next Bradley date comes into play – but between now and end of June, I think we’ll get choppy action that may take it back to its 50 day MA which is also close to the keltner top (as the keltner stands right now) – maybe even 1375 area – just my gut feel on this as much of course will depend on earnings starting in July and on the Greek elections in mid June and the Fed meeting on June 20th and what they will announce from that meeting. Earnings estimates have been coming down recently too – so, something else to keep in mind too ;)

    thanks tony :)

    eve

  43. Irwin Says:

    #32 – Paula/NS

    Two posts from a financial forum on the topic of removing some money out of RRSP almost tax free. I believe the info is correct.

    I’ll post one link at a time:
    http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/9341-withdraw-RRSP-with-least-tax?p=96480&viewfull=1#post96480

  44. Irwin Says:

    … and here’s the second one:

    http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/5781-RIFF-for-pension-income-tax-credit?p=43157&viewfull=1#post43157

  45. gmsa Says:

    Rol Lew,
    yesterday you wrote the following:

    “Those who fight and run away,
    Live to fight another day…

    Brave men, they die but once
    But a coward dies many times before his death……..

    Yep – I think the short party is over.”

    On the money, man!
    CMG and the position there is definitely like those warrior – one time or daily warrior.

    Anyways, back from the crazy busyness @ work in past 20hrs. Missed most of the moves already today. Glad removed 2 short positions yesterday with good profits. Added one pos. yesterday from short side but it’s only up by 1% right now.
    Scaling back slowly into shorts – is the theme for me.
    Just noticed, gold bugs flying away?!
    Cheers!

  46. Slava Says:

    Had to go into a meeting and missed hgd.. hard to work and trade at the same time.

  47. Slava Says:

    but I did short ulta and cog prior to going into a meeting and now up $500 between the two! Yay!

  48. Eve Says:

    Hi Michael,

    Oh ok – well, his letter is free for 1 month – so, I think it is worth your while to get it for the month and check it out yourself – then let me know how you feel about it – we can see if we both feel the same about his letter ;) But yes, i agree with you Michael in saying the opposite move should be considered when Gartman makes a comment about gold LOL – as he really doesn’t make good calls when it comes to gold ;)

    As for the gold stocks today:

    Well, with looking at gold itself, I see on the chart that there was a bull flag showing as of yesterday – so, its pop up today of over $20 was expected IF the bull flag was to play out (and usually, these kind of patterns DO play out – thus, they are pretty reliable patterns). And now with gold up by only $7 as I write this (oh ok, now up by just $2), this means that there will be a reversal cs showing today on the chart – so, this suggests downside to come in gold – confirmation of this will come tomorrow if gold is down tomorrow.

    Then however, if you look at the gold stocks of say AEM and GG (on the NYSE), then you’ll see that they have only pulled back today to get to their 4 day MA but that the 4 day MA is still going up (as in, it hasn’t YET started to roll over), so, “potentially”, the gold stocks could have a bit more to climb. Stochastics though looks like it is rolling over but hasn’t yet crossed the 80 line to give a sell signal.

    So, with the mixed signals right now on gold price showing it is perhaps reversing in price vs. the gold stocks showing they potentially have a bit more to climb, then it is hard to say right now whether they are finished their climb higher – BUT, with these kind of signals on the charts, I will say that VERY SOON the gold stocks will be starting their decline they have in June. We just need more confirmation of this which we should get either tomorrow or Friday.

    Hope this helps Michael :)

    Eve

  49. Eve Says:

    Slava,

    Good going girl on both shorts today :) They were good ones for today due to COG going today to its 4 day MA on the WEEKLY chart but not being able to up from there by any significance – and with ULTA, due to it needing to come down a bit from its high today to get closer to its 4 day MA – so, good going girl with those today :)

    Oh please read my comment above to Michael on the gold stocks and gold – regarding your HGD purchase you’re interested in making soon.

    Eve

  50. Slava Says:

    Eve, did you notice how first gold stocks started to pullback and then gold followed? It’s all a game, isn’t it..

  51. Slava Says:

    5minute chart is amazing. I’m just looking at Trican and the way it peaked and crashed today around 1:30 the moment 4day went below 9day.

  52. Slava Says:

    Eve, thank you. I just covered ulta but missed cog (and it spiked $0.30/share in the last few minutes).

  53. Eve Says:

    tony,

    Just wanted to mention something very strange I’m seeing – on my 3 month daily chart of the SPX on TD waterhouse chart, it shows the 18 day MA at 1311 (which, it basically hit today as it went to 1310.94 and then started to come down) – the 18 day MA showing though on the daily chart on stockcharts has it as 1313 – so, potentially (depending on which site is correct), the 18 day MA may have been hit today and is now coming down a bit from there.

    Just thought I’d share as I find it interesting to have such a discrepancy – i will say though that in May when the 18 day MA was hit on the TDW chart, that was the high for the SPX and then it started to sell down from there (around May 21st when the SPX was extremely oversold on RSI, stochastics, and the keltner and was due for a big bounce up – which it did end up having in the 2 days that followed).

    So, I guess we’ll see if that pans out this time around too!

    Eve

  54. Eve Says:

    PS tony,

    Ooops, I meant to say in my post 52:

    that it was around May 21st that the SPX hit the oversold zone and then had the bounce up from there to get to the 18 day MA (by around May 29th) and then started coming down from there.

    eve

  55. Eve Says:

    Hi Slava,

    Re gold stocks pulling back and then gold followed:

    this is that situation I’ve written of often on here of the stocks LEADING the commodity. So, that “should” be the case that the gold stocks pull back BEFORE gold price does – just as the gold stocks should / will bottom and start to move up – and then gold follows thereafter :) Yes, all just manipulation – I completely agreee with you Slava!!

    Eve

  56. Paula/NS Says:

    Irwin Re: #42 and #43

    A few great ideas to ponder. I’ve bookmarked those sites for future reference. Thanks so much!!

    Paula

  57. Eve Says:

    Slava,

    re your COG short: I’m going to email you a picture I just took of COG from my TDW chart of COG. The pic will show you when / where the short today should have been covered. Comments re when / where to cover are in the name of the pic.

    Pic coming in a minute to your email :)

    Eve

  58. CJ Says:

    SLAVA#50 – what I was seeing is my losses dropped into the 2000 range then went back up and now at 3370.00 just on TCW.TO that is!

    Now how to find something just heading UP????

  59. Eve Says:

    CJ,

    re tony’s post to you at 54:

    I have written that strategy to you several times in the last 6 months – I wrote it to you with respect to COG and to RAX for 2 examples. So, not sure how you wouldn’t have “thought of that” as I myself have already given that strategy to you myself!

    Eve

  60. Eve Says:

    PS CJ,

    Sorry, I meant tony’s post to you at 34 – not 54.

    eve

  61. Canuck2004 Says:

    #29-Freddebuoy

    Sorry, I don’t follow them.

    POW is a senior CAN corp., best of breed and one of the largest financials corps in Canada. Has long history of creating shareholder value and increasing dividends. POW is the parent company of many (PWF, GWO,etc.)but has further assets in EURO/Asia, including NA. It’s a conglomerate so doesn’t bounce around much.

    It’s not one I worry about. If market crashes it will go down, but not as much.Long term fine…

    I’m looking at it as a Margin Core, with a secure yield of over 5%, historically excellent.

    Canada 10 year is now yielding 1.7 something, so any stable yield at 4.7% and above is excellent.

  62. Slava Says:

    CJ, this is why this market is pretty much for daytrading only.

  63. Canuck2004 Says:

    #32-Paula/NS

    One takes money out of an RRSP when one’s income is reduced by pension or minimal by unemployment, then you won’t have to pay tax at all.

    If you take it out when working you will pay hefty tax at the source (withholding).

    For example, when I decided many years ago to go back to university for a career change, I lived on my RRSP tax free.

    At 71 one just has to transfer it in an RRIF. Talk to an accountant.

  64. CJ Says:

    AT CLOSE: MCD – (just as a for instance)

    ADVFN: closed at 88.66

    FREECHARTS closed at 88.62

    Stockcharts closed at 88.72 but still changing (I thought $US stocks were in real time on Stockcharts ??) I suspect it’s following on to the West coast closing – What time is that (EST please)??

    Q-Trade showed 88.62 at close, but frequently changes between now and bedtime – a penny here a penny there.

    These discrepancies drive me crazy LOL

  65. CJ Says:

    SLAVA #61 – Sound ok to me providing one can get in at the bottom and walk away at the top – Now I have a very little bit of $US dollars and want to buy a few shares of XLP;
    Now it popped way up today; (Been watching it since Brooke Thackeray mentioned it on BNN weeks ago) I see that there is a GAP to be filled, and also that the close is .35 higher than the current 4ma so I expect a pullback in the morning. Right?? Now where should I place a limit bid for tomorrow? I don’t seem to be able to catch it on a 1 min chart – that’s how slow I am!!!

  66. tony Says:

    ok got to go just read a few posts will answer back to you eve later tonight.

  67. CJ Says:

    Eve #58 – It was not the strategy (Buy low – sell high – I KNOW that much Eve) – it was trying to understand Tony’s post (yesterday when he first posted it) His explanation today was in my kind of English I guess, as the light bulb came on LOL!

  68. CJ Says:

    SLAVA: Nice going on COG – Do you think it will pull back to the 4ma in the morning?

    NG futures in the red at present – if it is that way in the morning, you can short it as it comes down?

  69. Slava Says:

    Hi CJ, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to COG. I was tempted to reshort it near the close but the volume was high as it kept moving higher into the close. I’ll see how tomorrow goes. My biggest mistake today was not buying hgd. I knew it was a buy but I froze and didn’t proceed, too bad.

  70. kam Says:

    Hi Eve and Slava,
    Here are few reasons that gold and goldies stopped today, I think!
    (1)Gold stocks are almost at top keltner and I have been watching them since yesterday and thinking if they go up more then hgu will touch top and hgd is also at bottom of keltner.So when I saw gdx stalling around 48.50ish 2-3 times even if spx kept on going up and they didn’t respond much to gold jumping higher few times, I knew it is time to go hgd as they were running out of gas.
    (2) Barrick gold fired their CEO and after opening above R3 pivot in NYSE it just kept on dropping and in the end traveled below S3.If a 19% contributor is bleeding then we can’t expect gdx to stay high on guys like iamgold,ngd etc. who were also at top keltner and hitting 70 on RSI.
    (3)The biggest factor I think which got them rolling downhill fast when ‘The beige book’ report came at 11am pst.It is more bullish and which means less(immediate)chance of QE3.Gold started dropping before 11am and soon after “beige book” release it dropped from 1630 to 1614 within minutes(later recovered some)and GDX followed fast.This is where spx started going up and in the last 1/2 hr of trading gdx went up with high tide of spx.
    So these were few factors which finally let some air out of gold trade for Canadians($canadian went up so much against $usd that even though GDX closed up today, hgu.to went down almost 2%)lately its hgu who had been great beneficiary of Canadian dollar dropping as it kept on going up.maybe now its HGD’s time to benefit from $usd weakness.
    Hgd was also supported by 200ma at 9.30. Although it is derivative of gold stocks and $cad can confuse it but have a look at “dust” too. It stopped its drop at 200ma which might be a support here.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p56183168844

    regardless, as they are in uptrend now so every drop could be bought until the trend changes which might be close as to work with “Eve’s” call of gold stocks ‘drop time’ is here soon. :)
    kam

  71. kam Says:

    Hi all gold and gold stocks traders,
    Warning for trading tomorrow.
    Uncle BEN is speaking tomorrow at 7am pst time.Trade or buy hold hgu/hgd at your own risk before that time.Don’t say I didn’t warn you before.
    IMHO,less chance of having gold on rocket fuel but you never know.I have been wrong more than right before.
    Gmsa, any thoughts? anyone less?

  72. gmsa Says:

    Kam,
    re.#69 & #70
    Doing the trading & reading charts, I have also learned to sense the workload piling up… yep, yesterday afternoon had that gut feeling and sure it did. Workload came in like huge Tsunami waves! Got so tied up…barely slept few hours & again from early AM until @2pm EST didn’t even get a chance to look at the markets/portfolios. Just crazy busy.
    Posted a note that time (just after 2pm)& didn’t even remember the FED Beige Book data release but did manage to notice HUI/GDX plunging on freestockcharts.

    Just finished reading your #69, must say excellent summary for the day, Kam! Perfect analysis you’ve done there including the $CDW directional changes that gets exaggerated in XGD components along with fundamentals like ABX reasoning.

    My charts were showing overbought enthusiasm everywhere in PM space, after adding a little short yesterday, I -kind of- went bit crazy… shorted a lot of things. GG, IAG, HGU (yes, shorted hgu) along with some gassy & tech. names. May be bit early if the SPX goes to 1325/1330 level depending on what Uncle Ben says and Spanish & French Bond Auction 2moro early AM. US unemployment nos. @ 830. Aussie employment data came out stronger than expected so AUD is higher against USD, this Aussie no. won’t have much effect on DXY overall.

    Somehow, I have a feeling that 1600level will be breached by Gold and high 1500 (@1575 level) will be tested even if Ben’s statements are not too negative towards monetary easing. If he is firm on his denial for QE3 then gold will take serious pounding, but as I’ve been saying for sometime that just one month of bad economic nos. will not force them to resort to do something that has already yielded nothing to the economy. June NFP data will be key. Yellen in her speech tonight kind of gave hint of some action. But more thoughts will be given during upcoming fed meet on June 19-20. So Ben will just acknowledge the slight worsening of economic funda. & say that they will stand guard etc. At least, I am hopeful that some air will come out of the PM miners as they have performed quite strongly since early 3rd week of May.
    So far my PM shorts & hgd long has not given me much in this time frame so I’m guilty as charged! My hope is the averaged up PM shorts will be profitable if today’s euphoria recedes a bit.

    I must go to bed now for fresher eyesight 2moro.
    Good night, Kam.

  73. rick Says:

    kam , I agree with you ” trade or buy , hold hgu/hgd at your own risk before that time ( uncle BEN ) ”
    But we can enter an order a little bit away from today close just in case will be some volatility ( usual there is ) .
    For example short DSLV at 41.01 with today closing 37.68 ( 8,8 % higher ) . Maybe will be filled or maybe not , but we can go fishing ,right ?

  74. Slava Says:

    kam, wonderful summary, thank you for taking the time to write it.

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