Tech Talk for Thursday June 7th 2012

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday June 7th

U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures gained 10 points in pre-opening trade. Futures are responding to news that the Chinese central government lowered its overnight lending rate by 0.25% to 3.25%.

The Bank of England maintained its overnight lending rate at a record low 0.5% rate.

Investors will be watching for comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke when he testifies before a joint Congressional economic committee starting at 10:00 AM EDT.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of weekly initial jobless claims report. Consensus was a decline to 375,000 from a revised 389,000 last week. Actual was 377,000.

Lululemon fell $6.79 to $63.23 despite reporting higher than expected first quarter earnings. The company also lowered guidance for the second quarter.

JM Smucker added $0.55 to $76.60 after reporting higher than expected fiscal fourth quarter earnings.

Medtronic (MDT $36.64) is expected to open higher after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform. Target was raised from $43 to $44.

Verizon is expected to open higher despite a downgrade by Daiwa Securities from Outperform to Neutral.

Navistar fell $3.15 to $25.00 after reporting a surprising second quarter loss.

Agrium gained $1.04 to $79.25 after increasing its semi-annual dividend from 22.5 cents to 50 cents per share.

 

Technical Watch

Lululemon athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) – $63.23 fell 9.7% despite reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings. The company also lowered guidance for second quarter results. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend will change at the opening from neutral to down on a break below support at $66.01. The stock trades below its 50 day moving average, moved below its 20 day moving average yesterday and could move below its 200 day moving average at $61.04 as early as today. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned negative at the beginning of May. Preferred strategy is to take profits on a recovery closer to previous support at $66.01

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Verizon (NYSE:VZ) – $41.77 is expected to open higher despite a downgrade by Daiwa Securities from Outperform to Neutral. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock is testing its all-time high at $41.96. It trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the end of March. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.

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Navistar International (NYSE:NAV) – $25.00 fell 11.2% after reporting a surprising fiscal second quarter loss. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the beginning of February. Preferred strategy is to liquidate on strength closer to its 20 day moving average at $28.45.

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Interesting Charts

Huge short cover rally in equity markets yesterday! The S&P 500 Index managed to move back above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators moved higher from oversold levels. However, volume, considering magnitude of the gain, was anemic. Best guess is that U.S. equity markets have started a base building period lasting until mid-July characterized by higher than average volatility.

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Equity market strength yesterday had everything to do with strength in the Euro and corresponding weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. Short term momentum indicators for the Euro are flashing buy signals and short term momentum indicators for the U.S. Dollar Index are flashing sell signals.

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Weekly Review of Select Sector SPDRs

Technology

· Intermediate trend is down. Units are testing short term resistance at $28.32.

· Trades above its 200 day moving average and moved above its 20 day moving average yesterday, but remains below its 50 day moving average.

· Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is changing from negative to at least neutral.

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Materials

· Intermediate trend is down. Units are testing short term resistance at $34.70.

· Trades below its 50 and 200 day moving average, but moved above its 20 day moving average yesterday.

· Short term momentum indicators continue to trend higher.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is changing from negative to at least neutral.

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Consumer Discretionary

· Intermediate trend is neutral. Units are testing short term resistance at $43.96.

· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

· Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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Industrials

· Intermediate trend is down. Units are testing short term resistance at $38.50.

· Moved above its 200 day moving average yesterday, but remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

· Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned from neutral to negative.

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Energy

· Intermediate trend is down. Units are testing short term resistance at $66.69.

· Trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Financials

· Intermediate trend is down. Units are testing short term resistance at $14.25.

· Returned to above its 200 day moving average yesterday, but remains below its 20 and 50 day moving average.

· Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Consumer Staples

· Intermediate trend is neutral.

· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

· Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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Health Care

· Intermediate trend is down. Units are testing short term resistance at $36.75.

· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

· Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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Utilities

· Intermediate trend is up. Units broke to a new high yesterday.

· Trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Short term momentum indicators are trending higher.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base

Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:

 

Dow Jones Transportation Average Index (^DJT) Seasonal Chart

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FP Trading Desk Headlines

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Just how bearish are investors”? Following is a link to the report:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/06/just-how-bearish-are-investors/#more-182209

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Bracing for more bank downgrades”. Following is a link to the report:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/06/bracing-for-more-bank-downgrades/

 

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC June 6th 2012

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108 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday June 7th 2012”

  1. Paula/NS Says:

    The steam appears to be coming out of the initial pop up in the market.

  2. Tawny Says:

    Paula

    Bernake speaks! No big stimulus.

  3. Tawny Says:

    Lin says – “watch 1320, if it can’t hold stay short.”
    Don’t think anyone is wearing shorts now! LOL – so guess that would mean buy short

  4. Paula/NS Says:

    This reminds me of 2007/08!! Man, it’s difficult to navigate these markets when you can get blindsided by a surprise rate cut from China or the nuance of a fed statement.

    I just picked up a bit of BA in front of their ex-div next Wednesday. I had wanted to get back in to some of the oils but am staying away for now.

  5. Paula/NS Says:

    Tawny,
    I’m a bit reluctant to go short right now. Whiteside just took off most of his shorts. I think we’re in for a bronco ride. Since I don’t hang on to a bucking horse very well, I’m mostly cash right now. *sigh*

  6. gmsa Says:

    Tawny,
    I always have my shorts on! Didn’t take any down in past 2 days, actually added more.
    I was mentioning about more shorts that I added last night to Kam.

    Just like Cramer says; little different twist from my side.
    “There is always a bear market somewhere” – I try to find it.
    This stox markets and Market Makers are getting more & more addicted to QE. And QE, just like antibiotics, doesn’t work well once its taken more than 2 times ;)

    Are you buying anything or just wait & watch for now?

  7. Lin Says:

    Tawny
    Thanks. Yes I am shorting spy.. closed out my LNG those long early this morning! This is called timing.

  8. Michael Says:

    Hi Paula/NS and Tawny. I thought that Whiteside was going totally long today. While we could be in an uptrend, most indices are far above the 4-day MA. (For that reason, I just sold my GWO.to). If you want to go long, take a partial position. I would expect that the markets may end up flat to negative today as well as tomorrow (unless Uncle Ben says something market-positive). I bought some SDS but will be selling it today or tomorrow.

  9. Slava Says:

    I hope I’m getting my market mojo back.. yesterday I talked about buying hmu and hgd and both are up quite a bit since then. This a.m. I shorted fm.to, cmg and ulta.. too bad didn’t trigger a short on cog as planned. already covered fm and ulta.

  10. Slava Says:

    and my lululemon predictions of slowing growth are coming true as well.. too bad I had no short position going into the earnings.

  11. CJ Says:

    Planned 2 buys today, (AX/UN.TO; XLP): carefully put in a limit bid thinking there would be a pull back toward the 4ma – in both cases they just opened higher and kept on going!

    Then WPRT I carefully watched on 1 min chart ready to sell as close to the peak as possible; was head faked into selling just after 10am as it declined, then it turned tail and reached higher. Oh well, 1/2 the gain better than none; lets see if it drops low enough to give me a buy signal again!

    Since I will be on the road tomorrow, I’ll just let my limit orders expire and keep in cash.

  12. gmsa Says:

    Michael,
    Wanted to ask you this question for past few days & somehow never got the opportunity. It’s in regards to your trading – swing trading may be and investing – longer or med. term.
    1. how do you spot the opportunities?
    2. What kind of equities/product you try?
    3. Do you set up mental stops or hard stops for your long/shorts?
    4. If not then, how long would you hold the position working against you?
    5. Do you maintain any % weight in your portf. while doing this?

    I remember Wayne writing sometime back that his FT working friends would adjust stops on their positions after looking at the daily charts.

    Since you’re more experienced & an ex-banker and manage things very well, I would like to understand & absorb if you please.
    Thx.

  13. Wayne Says:

    Slava,
    Well….no QE3.. golds heading back down.

  14. tony Says:

    Eve

    Sorry I didn’t get back at you last night.

    from post 52

    though that in May when the 18 day MA was hit on the TDW chart, that was the high for the SPX and then it started to sell down from there (around May 21st when the SPX was extremely oversold on RSI, stochastics, and the keltner and was due for a big bounce up – which it did end up having in the 2 days that followed).

    So, I guess we’ll see if that pans out this time around too!

    Eve

    OK about the 18MA its the typical support or resistance wether in a bull market the 18 MA will be your go to support, and in a bear market it will be your go to resistance.

    More often then none the completion of the 1st half of the W occurs on the 18MA
    I will post 4 charts with to show just how the 18MA is a good guide to support/resistance

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMG&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p28336827536&a=261080593

  15. gmsa Says:

    Michael,
    forgot to add there @ #11
    Don’t have to reply today or even tomorrow may be w-e.
    Essentially, pl. take your time, no rush.

  16. Slava Says:

    Wayne, yes, and it looks like the big money found out yesterday morning around 11 a.m. – thatn’s when they started selling/shorting gold equities.

  17. gmsa Says:

    Wayne,
    Where do you see $Gold settling down to?

  18. Tawny Says:

    CJ

    NTR
    I have been extremely tired lately and barely able to function…. so I am behind, behind, and behinder with e-mails and actually everything. I actually found out yesterday that many medical complaints I have had for the last 3 years or more are due to side-effects from a med. I have been taking. erggh! Doctors! HE should have discovered this long ago.. so sorry I have not responded – will when I can.

  19. Slava Says:

    I suppose CMG’s direction looks uncertain.. Any thoughts out there as to the near term price? Here is Frank’s chart again:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMG&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p09223995283&a=265131502

  20. Slava Says:

    Hey tony, so when do you think osisko will be a buy again?

  21. Slava Says:

    Wayne, I’m planning a trip to Europe at the end of July.. I’ll be definetely going to Annecy and Paris, also on the list of potential places – Geneva, Italian lake region, Rome, Amalfi coast, Croatia (depending on who is going to accompany me during the first 11 days of the holiday).

    Since you know that part of Europe quite well, any suggestions as to what day trips to take from Annecy? Will be based there for 8 nights. Thanks.

  22. Slava Says:

    mick, great call on calling a top in hgu/gold stocks. How are you? Hiding from the rain, I bet.

    So far this June reminds me of last summer in Vancouver (or lack of it).. Ron/BC calls it “free watering” :)

  23. Wayne Says:

    gmsa,
    1580 – then 1530. I bot NEM when it bounced off of 1535 – 1540 area last month. Dumped it yesterday for a 33% gain – Benny and the Inkjets always ruin a good party. I’ll look to buy when it gets back down to that level. I bot the Jan 13/46.00 Leaps.

  24. tony Says:

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HGU.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p65351842598

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLF&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p30912570880

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p56033891712&a=269009704

    these should be very informative for most who swing trade.

  25. Slava Says:

    Wayne, one more thing. Can you please tell Ron/BC that Michael, mick/inv and I are getting together at Kamei Royal on Burrard/Alberni on June 19 at 6:45? Just in case he happens to be in Vancouver we’d love to meet him :) Thanks.

    Okay, I’m off to work now.

  26. Eve Says:

    hi tony,

    thanks for your thoughts – no need to post any posts for me though with respect to the 18 day as I’ve been using it on my charts for over 6 months and I understand it very well! My post yesterday was simply with respect to the discrepant number on the 3 month daily TDW chart vs the stockcharts chart for the 18 day MA as TDW had it as 1311 and stockcharts had it as 1313. So, that’s all i was commenting on – wasn’t about not understanding how the 18 day works as I understand it very well – in fact, I told Ron/BC last year that the 18 day MA on stockcharts is very close in value to the mid keltner level such that I just use the mid keltner to look at on stockcharts (due to the fact I can only have 3 indicators at any one time on stockcharts due to not being a subscriber to them) – but on my TDW charts, I have the 4/9/18/ and 50 day MA on the 5 min chart (so, these are 5 minute MA’s) – plus I have the bollinger band and Williams %R (which I used to use back in 2009 on stockcharts but I switched back to using stochastics instead on stockcharts).

    So, if it’s for my sake only regarding posting examples of using the 18 day MA, it isn’t at all necessary – but thank you anyway for offering – maybe others on the board though might gain from the examples – so, maybe post them for others on the board who don’t yet use or maybe don’t understand yet, the 18 day MA and how it works.

    Thanks tony :)

    eve

  27. tony Says:

    Slava

    post 14

    remember that chart I posted, if price breaks below 18MA you short like there was no tomorrow, now the question to ask your self is the following,

    What happens with price once it gets close to the 18MA will it bounce or will it break below.

    If it Bounces you go long break you go short.

  28. Wayne Says:

    Slava,
    There’s a film festival in Annecy in June. I’ve only been there once – reminded me of Brugges – but Brugges is better. I was tempted to settle there in my younger years. The Amalfi coast is breathtakingly beautiful! Are you going to Split? My daughter spent some time there – loved it. Sounds like a fantastic trip!!!

  29. CJ Says:

    Tawney #18

    NTR:

    No need to worry, or rush; with my brain I won’t remember what I wrote, and maybe even not remember THAT I wrote LOL! Thank goodness the cause of your symptoms have been identified, now you should be on your way to better health! Keep me in the loop!

  30. Eve Says:

    PS tony,

    Oh I see you already posted the charts as I was writing my post to you – well, hopefully others on the board will benefit from them :) As I wrote, I’ve been using it for over 6 months now on my charts (on my TDW charts I mean – not on stockcharts charts) – so, I understand it very well :)

    Thanks tony :)

    Eve

  31. Tawny Says:

    gmsa re #6

    And, you look so good in those shorts – I can C U on my PB!

    I am not in anything right now. I really have many other things to do; but I am watching…. specifically interested in China, India and otehr asian etfs because of the China interest rate cut. I am going to wait a day or two for confirmation that they will trend up.

    The Board

    Also, would that cut in China not help commodities to rally… the base metals?

    US Dollar – thinking rather than exchange US$, perhaps I should buy a little US $ bear ETF for protection. Any ideas on this, anyone? Which ETF ?

  32. Eve Says:

    Hi Michael,

    Just as I wrote to you yesterday when you asked me about gold – the candlestick yesterday on the chart was a reversal cs (a reversal in price cs) (as I wrote yesterday it would be at end of the day) – and thus, with a reversal cs, the price has followed through and has declined today :)

    eve

  33. CJ Says:

    Tony/Eve

    Would appreciate your TA on AX/un.TO – It may not come down to my limit order so wondering what is a good entry point. MACD & Stoch positive, but everything else negative. This is a BUY & HOLD – not for a day trade.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AX/UN.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p51030743764

  34. Wayne Says:

    Slava,
    I’ll let him know.

  35. Slava Says:

    Osisko at -9% now.. I just covered my cmg short. I’m going to be late!

  36. gmsa Says:

    Wayne,
    Thx for mentioning your trading positions and the levels.
    I’m still holding & trading around those HND.TO. You guessed it, trying to get my money back on those 1st purchase around 46levels (presplit).
    Bought more hnd yesterday & today.

    .
    CJ,
    Wish you very best with your health & all those side effects.
    Take care. :)

    .
    Rick,
    Your post late last night. DSLV is another one that I didn’t know. Thx for sharing it here.
    Hope you got that to short today…it just hit that level.
    Cheers!

  37. Wayne Says:

    gmsa,
    I’ve been following Nasty closely lately and I am targetting HND. Almost bot at the close yesterday – expected big build. I was at a meeting this am – shoulda bot at the open. It’s headed back down to 2.00. I’ll wait until 3:30 before buying. You’re trading the right direction…..

    Best!

  38. tony Says:

    Eve

    Ok remark was more on the discrepency..

    TD vs Stockcharts,

    I just reviewed the 4MA on spy stockcharts as it at 130.44, the goog 129.33, yahoo 129.32 but the last 2 haven’t moved.

    And I reviewed the value and drum roll I get 130.44

    so thats one way to know who’s right and who’s wrong.

  39. Canuck2004 Says:

    High Yield buyers:

    Michele Robitaille
    Senior Portfolio Manager, Guardian Capital

    http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Market-Call.aspx

    She knows her stuff… I have followed her for quite some time, like Mitchell.

    The way I see the markets here, is that the only way out of the EURO Zone issue is to print more paper; same with US, QE3 will come this year, etc.

    This means that rates will stay low for quite some time…. and that is great for REITs. Pick ones that have good charts (trading above 200 DMA) that have been knocked down a bit in past few days.

  40. CJ Says:

    gmsa #36

    Your note to me was I think meant for Tawney? Unless you were guessing that my trip away tomorrow is for medical reasons????

    The thought appreciated anyway :)

  41. Michael Says:

    Hi Eve. Luckily, I sold my CEF.A yesterday (before my post to you). It looks like it could drop another buck or so to close a gap.

    By the way, I love finviz.com. While the Futures page is great with everything on one page, the stock charts are really helpful.

  42. gmsa Says:

    CJ,
    Ooops!
    Thanks for the correction.

    .
    Tawny,
    in the post # 36 meant to write to you instead of CJ there.
    Wish you all the best & hope you recover soon from all those nasty side effects.
    Cheers! :)

  43. Eve Says:

    Hi CJ,

    If it’s for a buy and hold, then you could wait til it gets below $16 to buy it – it shouldn’t go much below $16 as its low price it went to 3 times in the last several months was the $15.40 area.

    The 4 day is at $15.87 and is almost about to cross above the 9 day (bullish signal). Stochastics is climbing (is at 64 right now – over 80 is overbought) – so, is not at all overbought yet.

    Mixed signals though show on the weekly chart as MACD and stochastics are heading lower – so, on the daily chart, it looks like it has a bit more to run (once it tries to get back closer to its 4 day) – until stoch gets to overbought zone – whereas on the weekly chart, it looks like it is heading lower.

    So, for the short term, it looks like it will head higher (after it goes a bit lower to get closer to its 4 day MA) and once it gets to overbought on stochastics on the daily chart (maybe around $16.40), it may then go down to test again at that $15.40 level (I say this only due to the negative signals showing on the WEEKLY chart for MACD and stochastics – these of course can change to go to giving positive signals – but for now, they’re not).

    RSI on the DAILY chart is showing as it is heading lower – it has not gone above the 50 line by any significance since the beginning of May – so, this is another possible indication that the stock goes a bit lower (in order to get closer to its 4 day MA) before the stock goes higher in order for stoch to get to overbought. So, mixed signal with this too!

    So, that’s all really i can say about this one! Sorry – mixed signals on daily vs weekly charts make a stock more difficult to read. At least the price range from highs to recent lows of $15.40 is not that great such that if you buy it and it declines, the declines should not take it below $15.40 area by any significance due to that area being strong support.

    Hope this helps just a bit CJ :)

    eve

  44. Eve Says:

    Hi Michael,

    Oh that’s great that you sold it yesterday – good call Michael :)

    And yes, I completely agree with you re that finviz site – that is a great great site – isn’t it?? I love it!! I can’t recall who first told me on here of that site (it was when I was telling CJ last year of the forexfutures site – and someone on here then told us of the finviz site) – but I thank that person who posted it on here as i too find it VERY useful :) I have both sites open on my laptop all the time – forexpros plus finviz ;)

    Thanks Michael :)

    eve

  45. Tim Says:

    Hi Canuck2004,
    Do you mind sharing which REIT you bought back yesterday that you said are still in an uptrend..

  46. Tawny Says:

    Tony

    Thanks for posting those 3 stockcharts way above… I have copied them.
    I am buying into SLF.TO thanks to your charts.

    You seem to have created much simpler charts here… I like them. Is that what you are using now?

    Also, I missed seeing your notes on the 18ma… where can I find them or cas you repost them please?

  47. Eve Says:

    hi tony,

    Ok, I just checked “SPY” on TDW on the daily chart – and for the 4 day MA, it shows as $130.445 and the 18 day shows as $131.606 and on stockcharts, the 4 day is showing as $130.46 and the 18 day is showing as $131.61 – so, bang on right for both sites for the 4 and 18 day MA.

    Now on TDW for the 4 day MA for the SPX, it shows: 1300.3 and the 18 day MA as 1311.00

    and on stockcharts, the 4 day is showing as 1300.26 and the 18 day MA is 1312.16 –

    so, they’re a bit closer today with the 18 day MA on both sites – but still off by 1 point LOL (yesterday, there was the 2 point discrepancy) – whereas the 4 day is bang on for both!

    Too weird really!! ;)

    Thanks tony :)

    Eve

  48. CJ Says:

    EVE #43 – I put a bid in this morning at 15.89 (between the 9 & 4 ma’s) this morning – it made little attempt to dip even that low, so am watching and waiting for anything under $16. Thanks Eve, mixed signals is what I see also, but if you look at a 1 – 3 year chart it looks pretty good trendwise, although rolling over at the moment.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AX/UN.TO&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57894248307

  49. Tawny Says:

    Tony

    Thanks for posting those 3 stockcharts way above… I have copied them.
    I am buying into SLF.TO thanks to your charts.

    You seem to have created much simpler charts here… I like them. Is that what you are using now?

    Also, I missed seeing your notes on the 18ma… where can I find them or can you repost them please?

  50. Eve Says:

    CJ,

    I completely agree with you in saying it looks great for the long term trend (3 yrs) – plus, it should be a good buy and hold at least until interest rates start to move decisively higher – which won’t be anytime soon ;)

    eve

  51. Muntazir Says:

    Hi Eve,
    I am requsting your help re mutualfunds for resp.
    1.Stephen Whiteside says he is out of bears & will buy bulls for jun ( yesterdays & todays video).
    2.Jon V says today the markets are in bottoming phase btw now & jul.
    In my childrens resp I have 50% cash ( money markets). Bcs the value is small I invest in mutual funds. For last 2 years I buy CND/S&P/Nasdaq index funds & sell as per seasonality & have been succesful. Today I can not make decision.
    My question is should I start to nimble these funds $500 at a time OR wait for bottoming.
    BTW I think Don V said Jun not good mnth for equity markets??
    You can answer when you have time. Also if you can say your opinion on energy stocks ( xeg,cnq) & transports (cnr) as my notes show xeg good from jul-oct & transport & banks worst sector in Jun.Thanks in advance
    Tony,Michael,Rollew & others responses are also welcome

  52. gmsa Says:

    Martine,
    Hope you got out on the slw and other PM miners you were holding with some profits.
    Was looking at SLW charts & thought of you.
    All the best!

  53. Slava Says:

    Eve, CMG touched 4day and bounced up immediately. Had I been by the computer at that time I would have bought it :(

  54. tony Says:

    Canuck

    Funny you mention Michele Robitaille,

    Haven’t been watching that much of market call, after the 08-09 crash I called up cause I wanted some info on CGX, ha she gave me good reasons to own it when when price was around 13-14$ I was more in for that big dividend

    few months later one of her top pick was drum roll pls cgx

  55. Tawny Says:

    Tony

    Repeat, repeat, repeat – sorry about that – TT wasn’t working properly on my end… only need to reply once, okay! LOL

  56. Michael Says:

    Hi gmsa (Grand Master Shorts). I will get back to you on my trading strategy (I’ll have to make it up!). In the meantime, here’s an article on WDC:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/642791-western-digital-the-best-bargain-in-tech?source=email_investing_ideas&ifp=0

    Well thought out, tho the author looks like he’s 12 years old.

  57. Canuck2004 Says:

    #54

    It’s more about REITS…her and Mitchell I listen to, there’s a couple more also… most I don’t watch.

    #45- Tim

    Sorry, I don’t have the time to list what I buy and sell. Watch the shows mentioned and do your own research…that’s always the best way.

  58. tony Says:

    CJ

    AX/UN.to

    I think AX has a few $ to drop, I think here is one of those normal bear bounces above the 18MA

    I would start picking at it in the 13-14 range not before.

  59. gmsa Says:

    Michael,
    re.# 56
    Lol…you’re a creative guy for sure!
    Take your time re. your philosophy and the way you put it into practice. Hope you write it up & ‘not’ make it up ;)
    Thx for the WDC article… He sure looks like a younger fellow but some people are blessed with such faces like your fav. stock ceo i.e. RIMM! Who can say that he is 56 and has kids in their 20s?
    I was looking to take a position from short side on either STX/WDC but then realized that there was not enough margin left.
    Good Grief!

  60. tony Says:

    Tawny

    18/50 is for those long term traders(short or long).

    18MA I have posted a few times is the best support/resistance tool around.
    But at times we have other supports to look for.

    here is a chart of wzr.to analized back on feb 13th, just to show how one MA could be good but others are best in certain situation

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WZR.V&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p00629201418&a=257471752

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p56033891712&a=269009704

    SLF

    I like it for its dividend, but I would rather wait and see if price can bouce off the the 18MA before entering it.

    at 6% dividend you got to love this one.

  61. Slava Says:

    Michael, still holding RIM? If yes, good for you :)

  62. Slava Says:

    Is anyone else having problems with Scotiaitrade? Looks like their website is down?

  63. Freddebuoy Says:

    Canuck2004…thanks for your link to Michelle Robitaille on BNN. She certainly does know her stuff and she confirmed some stuff for me. I like her pick on CPG, down today but worthy of watching, with a yield of 6.7%

  64. gmsa Says:

    Slava,
    mine’s still up & hope it stays that way :D

  65. Freddebuoy Says:

    Slava, no problems with iTrade

  66. Freddebuoy Says:

    I take that back…iTrade just went down.

  67. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava and gmsa. I sold part of my handful of RIM shares yesterday. The good thing about RIM is that it tends to close gaps (which would be around $11.20) if you look at the 6-month chart

    GWO closed the gap this morn, so I got out (plus it is far from the 4-day MA). You gotta love the gaps!

  68. Slava Says:

    RGR is at -40% in 5 weeks, pretty crazy.

  69. gmsa Says:

    Michael,
    See? THAT’S why I call you THE Gap Master – respectfully, of course!
    Reason why I asked you about your strategy & philosophy is that I see you taking mainly long positions in various sectors & watch those with specific interest go in with your plans w/o worrying about too much ‘noise’ that might surround itself.
    It’s like practicing ‘theory of non-attachment’!

    I know you also take pos. in beart ETFs too.
    So wanting to learn as I’m very flaky when it comes to testing myself from the long side, you know how I recently got frightened on our WDC long pos.
    Just preparing for the next up leg, when it comes.
    ‘Nuff said.

  70. Slava Says:

    tony, GTE had a nice +12% move since Monday.. I didn’t partake unfortunately.

  71. tony Says:

    Micheal

    or The Gap Master as gmsa calls you

    what about the gmcr gap could it be fufilled in 1 year from now?

  72. Slava Says:

    Beautiful song on this dark and rainy day in Vancouver (one of my favourites)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQG7dZUnNLs

  73. Slava Says:

    All you daytraders – RGR is on the move, but here at $35.26

  74. Slava Says:

    RGR pattern.. short at the very market open, cover between 1 and 2 and then sometimes go long. It’s been like this for days.

  75. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    I like Allison Crowe’s version better.

  76. Slava Says:

    NTR

    Perhaps that’s because I like hearing it when it’s performed by a man? Makes it more relatable :) Great lovemaking music, by the way, very connecting.

  77. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    OK, that thought never crossed my mind.

  78. Irwin Says:

    off topic

    #72 – Slava

    Very nice!
    Somehow, I had the idea that you would be into “head banger” music :)

  79. Michael Says:

    Hi gmsa and others. I think that the best way to talk about my gap strategy is that it depends! With that said, I’ll go through a few examples:

    WDC: I sold it when there was a gap up in March for $40+ but held off getting back in. I could have made some good money if I bought back at support (around $37.50) and after a gap closed. But there were a number of gaps that held me back. I thought that I was being patient when I picked it back up around $31.35 but there was still another lower gap to be filled (patience is a virtue).

    CEF.A.: This one gapped up yesterday and I saw that gold was going down and it was far above its 4-day MA. This one can lag the actual price of gold so it can give you time to react. I won’t touch this again until the uptrend resumes or when the gap around $19.70 is closed.

    HND: Nice uptrend but it’s getting away from the 4-day MA. Recent Fridays have been good for this bear, but if it is up tomorrow, I would probably sell part of the position because it will be far away from the 4-day MA. There’s a gap at $6.75 that you have to be aware of, but not threatening at the moment because of the uptrend. The trouble, however, with leveraged ETFs is that technicals (and gap analysis) can be a little trickier.

    I hope this helps.

  80. Slava Says:

    Irwin, thanks… Nirvana and Pearl Jam days were over a long time ago. But yes, I did loooove Nirvana at one point.. as well as Alice in Chains, etc. Then I had my Daft Punk, Massive Attack and Moby stage. I’ve been to a lot of cool raves in my teens and early 20s – some of THE BEST in Russia, Germany and England. And now it’s quiet – work, bnn, bloomberg all week and weekend getaways to take the edge of. I’ve always loved classical music, my Mom used to be a concert pianist back home.

  81. Michael Says:

    Hi Tony. Well, GMCR will need a lot of caffeine to fill the gap! If a gap is to be filled, it’s usually done within three months and there’s a couple of higher gaps to be filled. But there’s been so much questioning around their leadership and accounting, I would guess that headlines will trump technicals. If they can resolve at least one of the two, then it’s possible that the gap(s) could be filled.

  82. tony Says:

    Slava

    GTE and RGR

    I mentioned it on tuesday so I can not be credited for its low 4.8 but from 5$ yesterdays open thats 6%.

    look at how it crossed below the 18and has never looked to the sky other then a few bounces here and there the 9MA at best it will tag the 18MA but unless it breaks above the 18MA slowly ridding on the 4MA I wouldn’t be a holder of this one.

  83. tony Says:

    Sorry If I’m reposting but like to put things straight

    Slava

    GTE and RGR

    GTE
    I mentioned it on tuesday so I can not be credited for its low 4.8 but from 5$ yesterdays open thats 6%.

    RGR
    look at how it crossed below the 18and has never looked to the sky other then a few bounces here and there the 9MA at best it will tag the 18MA but unless it breaks above the 18MA slowly ridding on the 4MA otherwise I wouldn’t be a holder of this one.

  84. KC Says:

    HI gmsa,

    Can I ask which shorts are you holding onto and which ones did you add yesterday?

    Thanks,
    KC

  85. gmsa Says:

    Michael,
    Thx for the gap examples & your interpretations at #79 & #81.
    With regards to HND it could be more accurate if done on UNG or NG itself. Regardless, I do see your point.

    Just a thought:
    Do you think that upcoming monthly expiration (next week) is going to be ugly?
    I am kind of getting a feel that the dominoes are being prepped for a big rumble next week. May be a bit early to say, w/o seeing the weekly close tomorrow.

  86. gmsa Says:

    KC,
    Pl. check my post to Kam late last night.
    I added HND, CMG puts today.

  87. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava. Maybe I’ll hum a few bars of Hallelujah on June 19 at Kamei Royale! I walked by there last night after the Canaccord wine and cheese.

  88. Michael Says:

    Hi gmsa and Wayne. I’m not a real follower of nasty gassy, so Wayne is probably much better at commenting on the month-end. I usually look at inventory numbers and the reaction to such and that’s about it.

  89. Slava Says:

    Michael, how was the Canaccord event? Was one of the topics “how to profit greatly in the near future by shortselling Canaccord shares?” ..lol

  90. gmsa Says:

    Michael,
    re.#85 & #88
    That last thought at 85 was in regards to the options expiry – Quadruple witching, coming next week. Not the NG contract monthly expiry. I guess I missed putting that specific Quadruple witching & monthly options expiry words there, sorry.

  91. Michael Says:

    Slava, the cheese was good, the wine was disappointing but the beer was refreshing! Indeed, I should have mentioned the fall of CF.to. The speaker was from Vertex (which I unfortunately own). They have been named one of the best hedge fund managers but their performance sucked last year! They make (or loose) much of their return through mergers and arbitrage. Quite interesting. They are long AAPL and FB and short retailers like JCP.

    Ok, I’m outta here!

  92. Wayne Says:

    Slava,
    Oh…oh…. You love classical music?
    For many years I played the viola and the cello in local orchestras. My ex performed with the Toronto Symphony Orchestra and the National Arts Centre Orchestra in Ottawa. A very good friend of mine started Tafelmusik in the 70’s in Toronto.
    I am on the board of the International Chopin Competition here at the Cape – held every September.
    The first place winner in 2011 stayed with us during the competiton. Her and her mother spoke Russian the entire time they were here, unaware that I took 3 years of Russian at Queen’s University.

    Here’s her personal page. A sweet kid. Very friendly and a delight to be with. Another Russian!! One of our judges is from the Ukraine.

    http://www.anastasiarizikov.ca/

  93. Michael Says:

    gmsa. I can barely think one day ahead, let alone one week. We can blog about this on Friday or Monday. Ciao for now!

  94. Slava Says:

    Wayne, how exciting! A man of many interests.. Exactly the type of man I’d like to be with in the long run – diverse, cultural, well-travelled… sigh.

  95. Irwin Says:

    off topic

    #80 – Slava
    I hear ya about “quiet”.
    Lots of “easy listening” on Galaxie TV for me, but I like lots of variety.

    Here’s one for gold longs today – I be one!

    Bob Marley – Everything Is Gonna Be Alright
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sk9EQUW-EfU&feature=related

  96. Hniel Says:

    Re: post 92. Wow Wayne, I didn’t know you were that cultured, well, yes I did but when I met you I could have worn a different hat, god no I couldn’t?? I’m an former caterpillar operator that started a home pet facility 19 years ago. I still speak Danish and love Chicago,the band, remember when you said once you were going to see Chicago and I thought you meant the band??? Hey, we all do what we like and as long as we are thrilled by it..My idea in life. I am disappointed you were a former banker but then as I recall you were more into mortgages, I have to admit, bank managers make me ill. Luckily for the last 30 or so years, I don’t need them. I did have one great lady manager..she said… H, if you are starting this business up, borrow from me now, I know it’s going to be a success, new vehicle whatever, she understood the business. She was taking a promo and getting transferred and I always remember that kind offer. She was right btw Have a good evening Wayne. Hniel

  97. Wayne Says:

    Hniel,
    LOL! Good to hear from you. Yes, I was the mortgage manager for eastern Ontario many moons ago. I was an early member of the Modern Fuel Gallery and approved loans for a number of Kingston artists. No one else in Kingston would touch them. That decision eventally cost me my job – upper level management didn’t agree.
    You know how I love doggies – I would have preferred your job.
    Are you trading anything these days other than milkbones and vodka??

    Best!

  98. Hniel Says:

    Wayne, you got it, dogs and Stoli, somehow they seem to go together. Wish I was 100% cash but just 40. I keep thinking I need to do hou-t but the markets scare me, you know me, limited knowledge and all a guessing game for me, plus the business, yard care and cottage take all my time. Keep well. H

  99. rick Says:

    Hi gmsa , yes , I am in , short DSLV at 41.01 .100 shares only .
    $silver was 26.15 in December , six months later 26.73 in May . DSLV drpo from 70 to 52 in the same period =25 % and silver = same price .
    My bet is that if in 6 months silver will be at 28.60 like today , dslv will be 25 % off , 41-25 %=31 .If silver will go up , dslv will be under 30 . If silver will go down , better have some cash to prevent a margin call ( this is why I sold only 100 shares ) .
    Regarding next week expiration , check this page http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php

  100. rick Says:

    dslv drop not drpo, spelling mistake

  101. rick Says:

    silver will not go up , gold will not go up , oil will not go up , stocks will not go up IF :
    US bonds and US dollar will go up and
    Euro will go down .

  102. gmsa Says:

    Michael,
    #93… lol, so true!
    Oh well, the reason why I was thinking about is I was looking at the events happening next week + Quadruple witching options expiry (I have few options too)
    Hope you had a wonderful afternoon & evening. Yep, 2moro is another day!

  103. gmsa Says:

    Rick,
    re.#99,100,101
    Thx for the posts & the stats. on $Silver vs. DSLV.
    I am used to getting margin calls & adjusting my positions and/or throwing more cash towards the position etc. because of my long time affair with the ‘shorts’.
    Strange thing is my brkr. ScotiaItrade generally never declines the borrowing for shorts. Had just one experience with IOC few months back. But this week they have declined me on UNG (few times), BOIL, DSLV… Got lucky with HGU recently. After they denied UNG/BOIL I had no choice left except for long position on HND.TO – not complaining though.
    Once the market volatility cools down will have to take some cash out from this a/c and tryout your brkr. I am almost full on my mrgn. usage right now.

    Thx for the options pain calculator site, I do check it often along with leavittbrothers dot com but they often would not publish the op.exp. data until after previous Friday’s close & at times on Monday of the op.exp. week. Having watched these I find leavittbro. site more accurate except for high volatility period, I guess cause during these times it’s pretty much headline/news driven. Will try putting the exact link here hopefully during this w-e if they have published it already.

    As for you comment on the DXY, I think it will go higher to close to 88 before it comes down. high 81 is a good support and in worst case I guess 80 or 78.5 should be fine. May be this weakness will take place during that Bradely date period between june12/july28…pure speculation on my part. But when it hits 88 will convert my most of the CDN$ into USD. Euro could hit 1.15/1.10 by that time depending on macro events.

    What do you think of the PM space (Gold/silver as metals & the miners)?
    Thx.

  104. gmsa Says:

    Rick,
    re.#103
    When wrote this towards the end “But when it hits 88 will convert my most of the CDN$ into USD…”
    Meant to say the opposite “will convert most of USD to CDN$”
    Sorry!

    .
    Wayne,
    This kind of personality in Cricket language is called ‘All Rounder’. Varied active interests coupled with great memory.
    Bravo!

  105. Eve Says:

    Hi Muntazir,

    I will get back to you over the weekend with my answer to your questions :) So, please stand by :)

    Thanks Muntazir :)

    eve

  106. Eve Says:

    Hi Slava,

    Well, CMG came right back down gain – so, it was ok that you didn’t buy it today as it will most likely go back down to the $380’s again anyway :) (support at $384, $382, and $380).

    HGD would have been a good buy for you yesterday – once you saw the reversal happen in gold price :) Gold down currently by another $20 tonight as I write this ;)

    Eve

  107. rick Says:

    Gmsa , all of them are $usd ” prisoners ” in this moment .

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77571797736

    The move in May from 78.60 to 83.53 was quite strong :
    1. = ADX over 60 !
    2. = PPO almost 1, the difference between EMA 10 and EMA 20 almost 1 % (high , very high )

    $usd need a rest here to let EMA 20 to catch with EMA 10 = PPO going back to 0 (or close )and ADX going down from 60.

    If that will happen gold and silver and euro and stocks will stay flat , maybe slightly higher .
    If $USD will go down all of them will rally .
    But another leg up is possible after a rest here = gold and silver and stocks will retest the lows .
    A rest here to normalize the overbought situation of dollar is possible .
    I will watch $usd price regarding EMA 20 .It will go under ? it will stay under long enough to a crossover between EMA10 and EMA 20 ? or will go up again ?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91265153918

    If gold will not go above 1600 another December 2011 is possible .
    Oversold condition for Gold was resolved , more neutral now ( ADX back to normal , under 30 from over 40 , PPO back to 0 from almost 2 % ). It can go both ways now so $ USD and tlt are important now . http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21543915033

    Gold is down to 1566 so …. retest next week .
    Who will have the courage to hold over the weekend ?
    The longs or the shorts ?
    Short term -5 days- gold and stocks are overbought so tomorrow could be a big sell.

  108. rick Says:

    Look at $XAD , Australian dollar = risk currency .
    1. when ADX over 40 and reverse
    2. when PPO close to -1 and reverse
    = bottom in $XAD and bottom in stocks too .
    Sometimes PPO is too soon and give wrong signals .
    Crossing between 10EMA and 20 EMA ( ppo above 0) is a good signal too but sometimes is too late .

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38468140703

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