Tech Talk for Thursday June 14th 2012

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76 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday June 14th 2012”

  1. Paula/NS Says:

    Marc ON and WLM,

    Thanks for that information on BNP yesterday. Instead of taking a loss (in my TFSA, so no tax loss possibility), I think I’ll hang on to my shares and see how this plays out. A lack of patience has often gotten my into trouble with both buying and selling. I did see the O’Connell comments last night on BNN. He had actually met with management earlier in the day and speaks highly of them (something he didn’t do when asked about Enerplus ERF.TO!)

  2. rick Says:

    Eve, please check these pages , it will help to understand vxx, uvxy , hvu.to

    http://www2.barchart.com/commodityfutures/CBOE_S%26P_500_VIX_Futures/VIhttp://www.ipathetn.com/us/product/vxx/#/dollarweightshttp://www.proshares.com/funds/uvxy_daily_holdings.htmlhttp://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-vix-futures-contracts

    uvxy=tvix=hvu.to —- same underlying index
    but uvxy =ETF issued by proshares , tvix = ETN isuued by velocity-credit suisse, hvu.to = in Canadian dollars issued by HB.

    The index is selling each day around 5 % of his front month futures and is buying second month futures .
    Second month futures are more expensive than the front month = contango and the index is losing that difference
    Second month futures are less expensive than the front month = backwardation and the index is gaining that difference .
    Contango and backwardation explain the differences between VIX and VXX or UVXY .
    The index has 100 % front month futures only on the expiration day which is the third Wednesday of the month ( each month )
    Each cycle has around 20 business days = selling and buying around 5 % each day . Sometimes 21 or 19 days , depend on the month .

  3. rick Says:

    let’s try again

    http://www2.barchart.com/commodityfutures/CBOE_S%26P_500_VIX_Futures/VI

  4. rick Says:

    http://www.proshares.com/funds/uvxy_daily_holdings.html

  5. rick Says:

    http://www.ipathetn.com/us/product/vxx/#/dollarweights

  6. rick Says:

    http://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-vix-futures-contracts

  7. Amelia Says:

    BNP:
    A large number of shares were traded in BNP in the last hour – over a million shares. This happened just when it was looking way oversold on technical basis. Fundamentals for this company are good – it has solid margins and lower debt. As Eve pointed out the price action may be related to fear of dividend cut. I would hold it because it is well managed and they do not want to cut dividend.
    It is also a function of the composition of nat gas that BNP extracts vs other nat gas heavy companies.

    VRX action seems related to broad selling of pharma in US.

  8. Slava Says:

    I’ve never followed BNP – just looked at it right now. Dividend yield is currently over 10%? Don’t see how it won’t be at least slighly reduced – but a good chance that it’s already built into the stock price. I put it on my watchlist. It is very oversold but it keeps generating negative publicity. BNN was reporting again this a.m. that BNP is probably likely to reduce the payout.

  9. Paula/NS Says:

    Slava,

    Check out Marc ON’s post #41 from yesterday re: BNP.

  10. KC Says:

    Eve,

    I posted a couple of questions to you yesterday. After a while I noticed they were still awaiting moderation for some reason. If you are able to and have the time, I’d appreciate some advice on those.

    I hope to respond to your last email in detail this week too.

    Thanks,
    KC

  11. Slava Says:

    Hi Paula, given my past experiences with the replies from companies’ investor relations to my email inquiries, I would not trust a word they say. Perhaps this person Sara sincerely means it, but the market is saying otherwise. Also, what can be true on June 13 may change by July 13. The lower the stock price goes, the higher the % yield the more pressure to reduce payout.

    By the way, as you may know I’ve made my share of mistakes with holding falling stocks (it’s well documented on here..lol), so by looking at BNP’s chart in the last few weeks and applying TA, Tony’s 4/9 cross bear cross would have gotten a shareholder out of this stock at $18.50 or so (since after that cross 4day ma stayed decisevely below 9).

  12. Paula/NS Says:

    Hi Slava,

    Yes, my bottom fishing expedition didn’t work out as planned! I would like to hold for an over sold bounce and then re-assess. Things turn on a dime in these markets.

    All the best,
    Paula

  13. Slava Says:

    Wow.. big jump in natural gas and NG related stocks.

  14. WLM Says:

    BNP.TO
    After insiders selling [from TD Waterhouse],now DM Kobelka [also insider] is buying;
    http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=bnp

  15. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava. Indeed, nasty gassy is just nasty! Inventory was slightly less than expectations and the traders have it up 9%!

    Just an FYI, I bought some sleepy MRU.to this morning.

  16. Brian/ON Says:

    WLM

    Thanks – didn’t know about that site, I usually just looked on the TD broker site. Makes it a little easier to source that information, which I think is usually pretty good for an investor. I flipped to a few ones I own, noted a lot of green on PD.TO, which I think is a good sign. Alot of mixed red and green on some of the others i have in the portfolio.

    Brian

  17. Freddebuoy Says:

    BNP.TO…the problem with this equity is it is 55% natural gas. If you check, PWT (40% natural gas) and BNP track very closely.

    According to the Globe website, the current EPS on BPS is 0.92 and the yield is $1.44. Sustainable yield?

    On the other hand, the EPS on PWT is $1.37 with a yield of $1.08. If you wish, you can drill down even further into the finacials but this info is a good start.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=BNP-T
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=PWT-T

    Frankly, I’ll take a pass on both.

  18. Eve Says:

    Hi rick,

    Thanks for that info on the ETF’s / ETN’s but I gave out similar info on HVU, TVIX, UVXY, and VXX as I wrote that TVIX, HVU, and UVXY are similar in how they trade in that they trade based on the short term VIX futures (UVXY trades 1 month forward and HVU trades 2 months forward – I didn’t check into TVIX as it isn’t one that I follow anymore by any great degree). I also wrote that VXX trades differently than HVU and UVXY – I don’t follow it so I didn’t write much on it as people can do their own research on it if they wish to follow it as opposed to the other 3.

    I also gave info that I took DIRECTLY off the Horizons website for HVU and off the issuers website for UVXY (yesterday when I wrote about UVXY to Kam, I just couldn’t recall as I was writing that post who the isser was – but honestly, it doesn’t matter – it’s listed inh the name of UVXY and one can see the issuer’s name by just putting in UVXY in stockcharts – no big deal!). So anyway, I provided a link to the prospectus on UVXY that I took directly off the proshares site – it can be found in post 43 I believe from June 4th’s board.

    I also wrote that HVU and UVXY trade off the VIX short term futures and are 2x leveraged – so, yes, I know already that they trade the same way – thank you :)

    I’ve written about these things often on here – going back to last summer when I first recommended buying HVU for when the SPX goes down, the VIX will go up and thus, HVU will go up! Last summer from end of July, I noticed that the VIX was at 15 – I knew that level would soon start a sell off in the SPX as 15 indicated too much complacency in the market – and when that happens, the SPX soon sells off! That is when I started looking at HVU – and that was when HVU was at $8. The sell off in the SPX started right at the end of July and the VIX started to rise (to go over 20 and it STAYED above 20 until it started to come down in October after the SPX hit its low last year of 1074).

    From end of July when HVU was trading at $8, it traded as an “uptrending” “stock” in that once it got over the mid keltner, it remained above that level and traded in the upper half of the keltner channel until October 4th when the SPX hit its low. HVU went from $8 last July to $62 by Oct 4th! It was a good “HOLD” during that time period due to the VIX remaining elevated (ie. above 20) and due to it being in an uptrend that started from end of July and ended at the beginning of October.

    And if you look at both the Horizons site and the proshares site, for HVU and UVXY, the issuers state (and give examples of going back several years – on the Horizons site) of how these trade inverse to the SPX. I have written about this several times now going back to last Summer. Here is info again from the Horizons site:

    Negative Correlation to Equities

    The historical returns of the Underlying Index and the VIX Index support a negative relationship with the S&P 500® Index and are widely considered to be inversely correlated to the S&P 500® Index.

    The table below shows the average weekly correlation for the S&P 500® Index, VIX Index and Underlying Index for the 12, 24 and 36 month periods ending October 29, 2010

    Average Weekly Correlation

    Underlying Index
    VIX Index
    S&P 500® Index

    1 Year
    2 Year
    3 Year
    1 Year
    2 Year
    3 Year
    1 Year
    2 Year
    3 Year
    Underlying Index
    1.000
    1.000
    1.000
    0.897
    0.863
    0.851
    -0.857
    -0.724
    -0.741
    VIX Index
    0.897
    0.863
    0.851
    1.000
    1.000
    1.000
    -0.796
    -0.628
    -0.705
    S&P 500
    -0.857
    -0.724
    -0.741
    -0.796
    -0.628
    -0.705
    1.000
    1.000
    1.000
    Source: Bloomberg, as of October 29, 2010

    You can view the info from the Horizons site on HVU (and HUV) here:

    http://www.hbpetfs.com/pub/en/etfs/?etf=HUV&r=o

    As can be seen from the table above (and as I wrote yesterday to Kam), the relationship between these ETF’s / ETN’s with the SPX is not ALWAYS directly inverse – BUT, it is close enough to be considered as being directly inverse to it – a 30 cent or so difference here and there would not negate this inverse relationship in my opinion.

    For UVXY, anyone interested can look the info up themselves on the proshares site – as I did on June 4th and posted the prospectus for UVXY.

    Bottom line though for ME anyway rick is that I’m really only interested in knowing how I “SEE” HVU and UVXY trade in relation to the SPX – and as I have been watching these 2 since last July for HVU and since the last 6 months for UVXY, then I have “SEEN” for myself that they tend to trade INVERSE to the SPX – such that as the SPX goes down, these will go up! I no longer look at all at VXX or VXX.TO as I did back in 2010 as the relationship with the SPX is not as it is with respect to HVU and UVXY – thus, I prefer to just focus on HVU and UVXY (I don’t look at HUV.TO as the volume is too low on this one for my liking – HVU has much highewr volume).

    So, anyway, that is how I use these 2 and that is how I have seen these 2 work with respect to the SPX – and this can be “verified” simply by looking at the chart of the SPX during those times when the SPX went down – for a day or two or several days or a week or a month etc., and then look at a chart of HVU and UVXY to see what they did in price when the SPX was selling down for that same period of time – you’ll find that HVU and UVXY went up during those times that SPX went down – that’s what I care about with respect to how these ETF’s work! During those times of the SPX going down, I didn’t even bother to look at the VIX OR the VIX futures – all I saw was that when the SPX sold down, HVU and UVXY went up! Check even in March – at the beginning of March – the SPX sold off in the first several days of March – and during that time period, UVXY went from $31 to $37 (taken right off the chart of UVXY – I’m rounding the numbers by not putting in the cents portion) – and HVU.TO went from $8 to $10 in that time period.

    It’s just that during times when the SPX is “trending” UP for several weeks OR several months, it is more difficult to “TIME” a buy in of HVU or UVXY for the right time to catch them when the SPX may sell down for a few days here and there during the months it is uptrending – that is why I wrote in February I believe it was that it is best to “play” HVU (or UVXY) in May as that is when the SPX should have a big sell down! That is why in May, Muntazir wrote me a note on here referencing what I had written several months earlier on buying HVU for May – he wrote telling me it seems that I was right in saying that!

    Anyway, thanks for the info rick – but a lot of what you wrote to me, I’ve already written that info on here myself with respect to HVU, UVXY, TVIX, and VXX and how these trade in relation to the SPX and the VIX / VIX futures – but all “I” really care about is what I have SEEN for myself – and what i have seen (and what is stated right on the issuer’s websites) is that as the SPX goes down, HVU and UVXY will go up (due to the inverse relationship with the SPX)! And for me, that’s the “bottom line” and all I really care to know :)

    Thanks though rick :)

    Eve

  19. Heinz S Says:

    WLN

    Thanks for the info on the insider trading website. Very easy to use.

  20. Freddebuoy Says:

    Angus Mackie, re your querie yesterday about HAC.A and HAC.

    HAC.A is an advisor sold fund hence the extra cost, to pay the advisor. If you are using an on-line or discount broker, you should buy the HAC – no need to spend the extra money HAC.A, which would only go to your broker’s bottom line.

  21. Eve Says:

    Hi KC,

    Ok, I’ll check yesterday’s board for posts from you and I’ll get back to you later with a reply :)

    Eve

  22. lrm Says:

    KC,
    re health care mutual fund –> ETFs topic from a few days ago.

    I came upon this converter today. It might be interesting to check out in reference to your interest in less expensively managed health care content in your portfolio. It tells you which ETFs have similar holdings to listed Mutual Funds. It seems to have mostly large US mutual funds in its database, so didn’t have any joy with the few Cdn Mutual Funds I tried entering. http://etfdb.com/tool/mutual-fund-to-etf/

  23. Slava Says:

    Has Tony already left for Europe?

  24. Michael Says:

    Hi KC, Irm and others. I also look at the following when thinking about US ETFs:

    http://www.newconstructs.com/nc/index.htm

  25. Eve Says:

    Kam,

    I wrote you a reply last night after your last post to me.

    Also, check out rick’s posts to me today – this gives info too on those ETF’s / ETN’s with respect to how they work with the VIX futures stuff we were discussing last night plus the barchart website (forgot to say thank you rick for that website :) ).

    Eve

  26. Don F Says:

    BNP.to

    I use to own this before the income trust change. Took a hit and then a further hit when they cut the distribution in increments as I recall from I believe 36 cents at the time. Stock traded near $40 then folded to about $13. I held thru the low and eventually got out around $28-$29. Been following ever since and have bought and sold a couple of times since then. I thought this was a quality company back then, now I am not so sure. I believe they hold extensive land holdings as this was a part of the attraction to hold the stock. As Don V probably would say: the chart tells the story.

  27. Martine Says:

    Rick,

    Thank you for the information re. the Vix and related ETN and ETF. I personally own VXX. Since you seem quite knowledgeable about the intrecacies related to the trading of these instruments, how would you trade them over the next few months should you be interested to do so? If you have the time to elaborate, I am sure it would be of interest to many of us, myself included for sure.

  28. tony Says:

    Hi all,

    Not to much time on my hands so this will be brief.

    No Slava I will be leaving in early july.

  29. Slava Says:

    Speaking of falling knives, I decided to roll the dice and pick up some Bonavista at $13.98. Now need to decide where to put a stop loss. Looks very oversold, esp. in light of NG futures being up +10% today.

  30. Slava Says:

    Hey tony, so where in Europe are you heading? I just booked my trip to France, Italy and Switzerland.

  31. tony Says:

    Slava

    This year our heart is set for Belgium. maybe I will make a small jump in the neetherland if time permits.

  32. tony Says:

    bouhouhou italy 1 croatia 1

  33. Paula/NS Says:

    Hey, Slava, I wish my BNP purchase price had been $13.98!!

  34. kam Says:

    hi all
    look at the shorts getting burned in natty while floor trading is trying to close in a minute. Up 31 cents. setting up pretty good for hnd soon.build of 7bcf less and natty up 15%!. Only natgas can do it. that being said take a look at the eia storage report and the built storage graph running way higher than 5 years average.
    http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

  35. Slava Says:

    Paula, well, as of now I’m losing money on bnp as well :( BNN is just discussing Bonavista – BMO analyst believes the cut in dividends in coming soon.

  36. Slava Says:

    kam, very good comment regarding NG. Not sure why it’s up so much – 67 vs. 74 – not a huge difference.

  37. Michael Says:

    Hi kam. There’s also the nasty gassy DGAZ triple bear! Indeed, it doesn’t make sense, but the US market being up today doesn’t make much sense either. I guess traders are setting us up for a bad day tomorrow.

  38. Slava Says:

    Hey Eve, have you seen lulu lately? I covered my short positions way way too soon. Again – timing is the issue.

  39. Slava Says:

    Even if Bonavista cuts payout from $0.12 to $0.10 – it’s still a huge number %wise… 1yr GIC is paying around 1.60% per annum.

  40. tony Says:

    Slava

    Here is a simple test,

    what is the difference between lulu daily chart vs cmg daily chart

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LULU&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p13106965969

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMG&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p45503753962

    I took out the indicators on cmg so no peeking, just look at Price vs MA and you will get your answer.

  41. Slava Says:

    HVU dropped from $5.09 to $4.69 in a minute or so.. flash crash?

  42. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava. Re#41, there’s a report that suggests that the central banks will provide liquidity if there’s a stampede of funds because of the Greek elections. I was just about to purchase HVU…

  43. tony Says:

    Micheal, Slava

    read on TV during my lunch hour (or was it yesterday (thats what happens when you depryve yourself of sleep)

    they have 60B$ to inject into spanish banks the number maybe wrong

  44. tony Says:

    Slava, Paula

    BNP

    few months ago they issued new shares at 25+ $ ever since it has been clubbered If you recall I took a stake in it took my stop loss was 6% price gapped lower ended selling it -8%

    my only regret is for those owning it. and the one who bought it from me at 18$

  45. Eve Says:

    Hi Slava,

    HVU dropped like a stone (as did UVXY too) due to the SPX doing a HUGE jump up at that time – the SPX went from 1320 to 1333 within 10 minutes – and is now coming down to 1327. As such, HVU went from $5.08 to $4.66 and is now going UP (it’s at $4.85 as I write this) as the SPX has come down to 1327 :)

    Just as I’ve written today and yesterday and June 4th and in December and last year in the Summer and this year in February etc. – HVU trades inverse to the SPX ;) (as does UVXY too ;) ). Just like that which is stated too on the issuers websites of these 2 (as I’ve posted from these sites ;) ).

    So, not sure why there’s such “discussion” of late of how these 2 work with respect to the SPX as they work just as the issuers state they work ;) which is inverse to the SPX – the charts tell the tale :) – not me telling it – it can be seen just by looking at the charts :)

    Eve

  46. Eve Says:

    Hi Slava,

    re LULU:

    I know – you were right the whole time hun – timing is almost everything when it comes to trading – hey Slava?! Just too bad I guess that you didn’t short it again from around $80 and held it down to $60 – and maybe lower too ;) ah well, I’m sure you’ll get more opportunities to short it ;)

    Eve

  47. Eve Says:

    Paula/NS,

    Oh my god – I just saw BNP – I am so so sorry you just keep getting clobbered with this stock!! It looks like it may be trying to get back down to its 2009 low of around $11 area ($11.32) (it’s low in 2009 though was at $10.31) – I sure hope it doesn’t go there (to either the $11 or $10 areas) – for your sake and now for Slava’s sake – and for anyone else’s sake who’s holding it currently!! I feel so bad for you guys!!! :( :(

    eve

  48. Paula/NS Says:

    tony,

    Re: #44 BNP

    I had forgotten you were in this one. Well, I’m down about 10% so that dividend isn’t looking so good right now. My average cost is $15.66 so it’s unlikely that it will be able to get up there in the near future. I have some thinking to do.

  49. Paula/NS Says:

    Eve,

    Clobbered is the word!! Yes, and in my TFSA no less!! I won’t be riding it down to $10, I can tell you that. I may have to take my loss and sear a few lessons into my brain:

    If the dividend looks too good to be true, it probably is.

    Don’t believe the talking heads on tv who tell you the company is great when it’s already down 40%.

  50. Eve Says:

    Paula/NS,

    I made that same mistake too back in 2009 when I saw a HUGE dividend for this one nat gas stock I bought (20% I think it was) – I bought it in Feb 2009 and got the nice div payments for 2 months and then the div was sliced by over 50%!! The stock dove!!! But I still held it for the div – it then got bought out in 2010 by a Korean company – it closed in Dec 2010 – and I made a profit on the buy out – plus the monthly divs too for that almost 2 yrs I had it – so, it was an ok buy for me! That was my first time learning of divs getting cut when they get too high in yield – so, I no longer buy any div stocks if the yield is over 10%! Yes, hard lesson to learn for sure! The div though is still intact (for now) – so, not all “yet” is lost with this one where the div is concerned – but still, cold comfort (I know) when your capital has lost 10% in the buy of the stock :( :(

    So sorry Paula – I hope it turns around for you next week – to get back up to its 4 WEEK moving average next week which will be somewhere around $15 or more come next week.

    Eve

  51. Paula/NS Says:

    Eve,

    BNP appears to have turned around the last few minutes. At least Slava is in the green on this one right now. I will hold on for a bit and see how it behaves prior to the dividend. Thanks!!

  52. Marc ON Says:

    TD Waterhouse’s Recognia Descending Continuation Triangle was triggered on June 8th at $16.29 which is bearish and says that the target price range would fall to $13.40 – $14.00. Well, considering the share price hit $13.76 today… how much lower can it go?

  53. Marc ON Says:

    FROM STOCKHOUSE: tesh

    Just got off the phone with Peter Brieger who had very recently had a call with BNP’s CEO (yesterday I believe). Mr. Brieger advised that, according to Mr. MacPhail, the price of oil would have to be depressed (say $75) and dry gas (say $2) for an extended period of time (say 1 year) before distributions would need to be cut. BNP’s DRIP and the ability to sell assets ($75 million last year) help fund any shortfalls. They have ample drilling opportunities to continue to increase production. They are not in danger of violating any loan covenants.

    Mr. Brieger did raise the point that, even though the company could afford the dividend, it would not be surprising if some members of the board asked if the dividends should stay this high (i.e. now above 10% yield) when a number of their peers are paying out at a lower yield.

    Mr. MacPhail also advised Mr. Brieger that he felt that the worst regarding natgas prices would be over this year and thought that $3 would not be unreasonable in the not too distant future. Less than 5% of their production is now dry natgas.

    Mr. Brieger agreed that the Enerplus cut and the perception that BNP might follow suit has had a major impact on the share price.

  54. tony Says:

    Paula

    BNP

    your down 10%

    What to do with this one…
    My first reaction was to say SELL now, after viewing the chart I believe it will have a bounce at least to the 4MA tomorrow.

    here is a trick I used a few times in the past, if you are wrong you can get out, and if you got out at the bottom you can always move back in, as you see price moving higher.
    here is a taught. SELL

    and if this was the wrong call

  55. Slava Says:

    Hi Paula, my falling knives are gmcr and rgr.. I’m still stubbornly holding.

  56. HS Says:

    What caused the market to spike like that at the end? This thing is rigged, the index looked like it was on its way to retrace most of the gains and then it just takes off. Got stopped out of VXX…surprised people are taking long positions going into this weekend. Do they know something that we dont’?

  57. Slava Says:

    Re: NG

    “The Energy Information Administrationsaid natural gas inventories last week rose 67 billion cubic feet, below the 75-bcf injection forecast, reports Dow Jones Newswires’ Dan Strumpf.”

    Okay, a difference of 8-bcf leads to a +15% spike in NG? Probably all short-covering.

  58. Slava Says:

    Well, I’m short a lot of COG at $34.57.. I hope it pulls back to its 4day ma which is currently at $33.23 but will be higher tomorrow.

  59. Paula/NS Says:

    tony,

    A move to the 4MA would be another $1. I’m going to hold to see if it can move up a bit.

  60. Eve Says:

    Slava,

    Due to the large gain today in COG, yes, the 4 day MA will be higher tomorrow than what you’re seeing right now on the chart. For tomorrow, the 4 day MA should be at around $33.60 (that’s the avg of the last 3 days closing prices inclusive of today). The 4 day MA is based upon the last 4 days closing prices – so, for tomorrow, it will be based upon the last 3 days (inclusive of today) plus tomorrow’s price as the price of the stock rises and falls throughout the day – and in the end, it is calculated using the closing prices each day. So, as I don’t know tomorrow’s price for COG, I averaged out the last 3 days (Tues to Thurs) closing prices and got around $33.60 area. So, it will be somewhere around there tomorrow – and you’ll see the 4 day MA change throughout the day tomorrow from the 930 am opening price – it will change as the price of COG changes. So, you “should” be able to get out tomorrow at least at around $34 area.

    eve

  61. Eve Says:

    Hi KC,

    Ok for shorting:

    I wouldn’t be shorting anything until after the Greek elections on the weekend. But candidates to short would be: LNKD, DOL.TO, ULTA (around $96), TCK (around $33/ $34), CAT (around $90), GS (at close to $100), WLT (at $48 to $50), SXCI (around $96/ $97), LULU (around $65 to $69), CLF (at around $50), WPRT (around $31), and FCX (around $35/ $36).

    AS for GFS.TO:

    It’s in a downtrend (for months now) – so, I’d be buying at the bottom of the keltner or bollinger band and sell it at around the mid keltner or mid bollinger band – UNLESS it rises ABOVE the mid point such that it goes to the TOP of the keltner – that will be your cue to tell you it is now looking to turnaround and go back into an uptrend – if it did this, then it would trade then in the top half of the keltner channel – so, you’d sell at the top of the keltner then and buy it as it got to the mid keltner and repeat. For now, it came down today to get back to its 4 day MA – so, it looks like it likes to respect the 4 day MA as much on a daily basis as it can. Looks like it might be heasded back down to its recent low of $3.66. It could be headed though to the bottom keltner which is currently at $3.51.

    Hope this helps KC :)

    eve

  62. Slava Says:

    Hi Eve, thanks for COG.. I’m already sweating bullets with my 3k short position (!). Don’t know what to expect from this stock. I also got carried away shorting FM. I hope it finds resist. near $19 otherwise I’m in trouble. Hoping to cover all shorts tomorrow. It looks like Greek election is likely to be favourable for the markets. Their stock market was up +10% today.

  63. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava. The good news about your COG short is that it’s at the top of its downtrend line and closed the gap that I had mentioned the other day. It seems the market goes up one day and down the next, so you could be good tomorrow!

  64. Slava Says:

    Michael, I’m on my way to Kamei Royal at 6:30 meeting a friend from Surrey :) I must have missed you mentioning the gap on COG. My life is so hectic I can barely remember anything these days! I actually got filled on 1.2k COG (long) around $32.25, was stopped out around $32.60 but didn’t expect it to take off like that after 10:30. Should have bought it back but it was moving up so fast.

    How do you do this gap analysis?

    I hope you are right and I can cover below $34.56.. What are your thoughts on fm.to?

  65. Slava Says:

    Michael, did I draw it correctly? Still not sure which points to connect to draw a proper trendline.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COG&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p52330454929&a=269565973

  66. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava. For gaps, just look at charts with candlesticks and use InvestorLine/Yahoo/iTrade to see at what price the gaps are at. Yesterday, Ford closed at gap at $10.24 or so and then shot up. JNJ did the same thing yesterday.

    For FM, it’s had a nice couple of days. It looks like it’s in a trading range from $17 to 19, but there are two gaps roughly around $19.60 and $20.25. When you look at the chart, every gap before May has been filled; I would expect the same to happen to the two more recent gaps.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=fm.to

    Enjoy Kamei Royale!

  67. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava. Perfect drawing! I wonder if stockcharts.com is compatible with Etch-a-Sketch!

  68. Marc ON Says:

    MORE ANSWERS FROM BNP INVESTOR RELATIONS C/O STOCKHOUSE: AI42
    Question:
    Hello, Can you please explain the recent share price activity? Why are we dropping 5 – 7% daily?

    Why is there a rush of insider selling lately? Is there a dividend cut coming as ERF.T announced yesterday?

    If the dividend is sustainable, would it not be prudent to issue a news release stating that it is sustainable to calm the market?

    Answer:

    we’ve been targeted by the market as one of the members of our peer group that is more likely to trim its dividend. I believe this was prompted largely by the announcement by Enerplus earlier this week. There is a tremendous amount of fear in the market these days an investors seem to be looking more for reasons to sell a stock than buy.

    We have our regularly scheduled dividend announcement coming out tomorrow and we are drafting some language that I hope will calm the market.

    Thanks for your support,

    Cam

  69. KC Says:

    Lrm,

    Thanks for the link on ETF, fund comparisons.

    KC

  70. Muntazir Says:

    Hi Eve,
    Let me try this:
    1. spx closed at 1329 & 4dma is 1319. chances are it will close lower tomorrow.
    2.hvu closed at 4.57 & 4dma is 4.87,. chances are those who bought near close today can expect hvu to go to 4.87.
    If above scenario does not work out & s&p closes above & hvu lower then Mon will be really down day for s&p & good day for hvu.
    How about this for starter.

  71. KC Says:

    Eve,

    thanks for your responses to all my questions and your recommendations for shorts. I will try to watch those, its hard doing all this with a full time job and much to do after work as well.

    Thanks,
    KC

  72. rick Says:

    Martine ,

    I am short VXX and UVXY.
    Last November I shorted VXX at 45 , today 19,33 ( 57 % ) and I shorted TVIX at 56 . I bought back TVIX in February at 18 ( 67 %) .The only reason = problem with Credit Suisse . I should short UVXY right away but I did not , big mistake , It was 33 in February and now is 16.63 .
    I shorted UVXY in last part of May at 19.32 , reason = market oversold.
    I will buy back both VXX and UVXY if VIX futures will go in Backwardation like last summer . Almost there in May but not yet .
    It is possible that during July to October we will have another sell-off , maybe even bigger than in May . Than I will short more .
    If the VIX futures will go in backwardation , I will wait until they will go in Contango again and in that moment I will short more . Probably when VIX will go above 30 first and after that when EMA 10 will go under EMA 20 .Or when $spxa50r will go under 20 or even 10 and will reverse.
    But short not long !
    I think is easier to pick a bottom than to pick a top .
    Bottoms are sharp but tops can take longer time to form and in that period VIX will stay under or around 20 . And in that period , contango + daily rebalancing will kill vxx and uvxy or hvu.to

  73. Eve Says:

    Muntazir,

    You got it exactly right! BUT, HVU “may” not get up to its 4 day MA tomorrow – just as the SPX “may” not get down to its 4 day MA tomorrow – and yes, if the SPX goes even higher on Friday such that it is even further away from its 4 day MA, then HVU will be further away from ITS 4 day MA too as HVU will go down further – and if the SPX does not “touch” its 4 day MA tomorrow, then yes, on Monday, it will be a down day for the SPX (in order for the SPX to AT LEAST get back and touch its 4 day MA) and thus, Monday at that point would be an up day for HVU.

    The 4 day MA for the SPX for tomorrow will be higher than that 1319 that you see today – and why? because the SPX went up today by as much as it did which means the 4 day MA showing tomorrow just after 930 am EST, will be higher than what is showing today. I explained in my post 60 to Slava how the 4 day MA is calculated (I looked up that info about 6 weeks ago on google to find this out) – so, please read there and you’ll see how the 4 day MA is calculated. So, the 4 day MA for BOTH the SPX and for HVU will be DIFFERENT numbers TOMORROW than the numbers you are seeing today on their charts.

    Also, Friday is a witching options expiration day (either triple witching or quadruple – don’t recall which one) – and “usually”, the Monday following a witching options expiration Friday, is a negative day (it’s called “the Witches Hangover” – the Monday following the Friday i mean). So, Monday should be a negative day for the SPX – and if it is, then yes, HVU will be up that day.

    Eve

  74. Eve Says:

    KC,

    I completely understand where you’re coming from with the work commitments plus life stuff to take care of too! So, hopefully the things you learn from the board (from others plus myself), you’ll find very useful in helping you trade these sometimes crazy markets ;)

    Eve

  75. rick Says:

    Martine ,

    We all know , that sooner or later something bad will happen and Spx will go down big time and Vix will go up big time ( and of course VXX will go up big time too ) . But the big question is when ?
    Because ,if you buy vxx today and VIX does not jump higher right away and you have to wait a month or two or three , contango and daily rebalancing will kill VXX .
    Look at the chart .
    VIX in February =16,10 -in April =15.75
    VXX ———– =23.68 ——- =15.90
    VIX ————=21.98 -in May =21.59
    VXX ————=29.46 ——- =18.30

    Lets say somebody bought VXX at 21 when VIX was 14! in March 13 .
    Today VIX is 21.68 — 50 % above 14 — and VXX is 19.33 , under 21 .

    So buying VXX when VIX hit 14 ? not good . The market did not came down right away and VIX did not jump higher right away .
    Is ok to buy VXX if you have a good timing .
    But I cannot buy VXX and wait for VIX to jump above 30.
    But I can sell VXX when VIX is above 30 AND VIX futures will go back to contango or EMA 10 for VXX will go under EMA 20 .
    I wrote above EMA 10 and EMA 20 because there is a possibility that this year VIX futures will not go in Backwardation even if VIX will go above 30 .
    Trading VXX for 1 -5 days with tight stop loss just in case ?
    Yes , maybe .

    Why play against ” time decay= contango and daily rebalancing ” when you can play using them in your advantage ? ( going short at the right moment)
    RRSP and TFSA acount ? Cannot short ? Don’t use that money for playing VXX and UVXY . Those are money for retirement and for ” black days ”
    Your broker does not let you to short ? Change it .

  76. rick Says:

    Martine , When you buy VXX , you don’t buy it from another trader who sell VXX short like me . You buy vxx from vxx issuer ( Barclays=ipath I think) because VXX is an ETF not a stock .

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