Tech Talk for Friday June 15th 2012

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100 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday June 15th 2012”

  1. KC Says:

    Eve, tony,

    Do you think is a good short this morning and is it wise to hold the short into Monday or tuesday?

    Thank you,

  2. rick Says:

    Martine , please read this :

    The author recommend to buy vxx to HEDGE your investments.
    To Hedge is different than to Speculate .
    He suggest basically to calculate the value of your investments on the long side , divide by 2,5 and buy the equivalent value in VXX .
    If your long investments will drop 10 % during the summer for example , your long VXX will rise 10 % — Theoretically !–.
    It’s just a theory but it worked last summer .
    I am adding just this : it will work perfect if the decline in S&P will start same day or the next day after you bought VXX .
    Because in hedging ,VXX is like an insurance , if you don’t use it you lose it .
    Eve is correct here , if you bought VXX at first of May in 2010 and 2011 you would win and maybe will be the same this year .
    But what happen in 2009 ?

  3. Slava Says:

    KC, I would suggest to hold as few positions as possible going into this weekend (long or short).. too much uncertainty pertaining to the outcome of Greek elections and how the markets will respond next week.

  4. KC Says:


    Hmmm true, wasn’t putting much throught into that. Thanks for the heads up. Are you saying you are 100% cash?

  5. Slava Says:

    US industrial production numbers came in below expectations.. yet markets are in the rally mood so far today.

  6. Slava Says:

    COG short is killing me.. :(

  7. Slava Says:

    Hi Paula, bnp is going up! :) Tony mentioned yesterday that he sees it going to its 4day ma which is currently at $14.56. Let’s see how far it can make it today. I already put a stop loss to secure at least some profit.

  8. Eve Says:


    I was going to say the same to you as Slava just did in post 3 – I wouldn’t be short or long anything at the moment due to Greek elections this weekend – we just don’t know what the elections will bring for the markets for next week.


  9. Brian/ON Says:

    Both the TSX and the DJI seem to be doing very nicely this morning. Despite the big potential problems coming up on the weekend. Any ideas’ why? Just oversold? I was pretty sure things would be down or very neutral today at best. So much for my predictions!


  10. Slava Says:

    Brian, the markets can still sell off later in the day… or perhaps not if the “big forces” have confidence in the outcome of the elections and/or the response of Central banks to any outcome.

  11. Eve Says:


    re COG:

    The good thing about all stocks is that after they go up by any large amount within 1 to 3 days, they ALWAYS come down! So, at some point, COG will come down such that you’ll be able to cover your short at a profit. The 4 day at 930 am was at $34 – and right now it’s at $34.14 – and it won’t stay away from its 4 day for very long.


  12. Slava Says:

    KC, unfort. I have some positions including cog and fm short which I was hoping to close today at breakeven or some profit .. not looking that way as of now.

  13. Eve Says:

    Hi Brian/ON,

    The bias for the week of the monthly options expiration is to be up. Then, on Monday after the monthly options have expired on the Friday, the Monday is usually a down day – but this is especially true on a Monday that follws a Witching monthly options expuration Friday – which is what we have for today!

    So, this week should have been an up week due to having that kind of bias for monthly options expiration – I wrote this to Tom on Monday this week too – I also wrote to Tom saying I figured this week though would be a “sideways” week for the SPX – and essentially, that’s what it has been.

    I also think the markets are heading up in order to “make room” for them to decline next week as the SPX is currently overbought on stochastics. So, the larger the increase they can do today, the bigger the decline they can do on Monday (due to being far from the 4 day MA).

    There’s really strong resistance at 1340 on the SPX and the 4 day right now is at 1325.


  14. Slava Says:

    Well, I sold bnp for now .. it touched 4-day ma and stalled. Will reevaluate later.

  15. Paula/NS Says:

    Hi Slava,

    Congratulations on your BNP timing. Yes, a positive statement from the company would go a long way to stopping the recent slide. I’m still holding and still under water. I could average down but doubt I’ll put more money in harm’s way. I’m currently 95% cash and think that’s where I’ll stay for a bit.

  16. Eve Says:


    re FM short:

    I wrote the other day that there was resistance at the $19 area – now that FM has gone ahead of $19, I will give you the SPECIFIC prices where there is resistance:

    So, at $19.04, .09, .29, .35, .50, .59, and at .67.

    It is far from its current 4 day MA though (at $18.55 as of right now) – and the pattern showing on the chart of the last 3 days is a bearish pattern that often results in a big drop after it has formed. So, next week, FM should see a big drop – at least to get it back to its 4 day MA as of Monday.


  17. tony Says:

    Hi all,

    Stop Loss

    As you all know I am have a 4-6% stop loss at all times, I received an article from CastleMoore,

    “At CastleMoore whatever
    the security, we have a general rule that when an investment is
    down 10% we are on sell watch regardless of overall portfolio

    So take note.

  18. Slava Says:

    Eve, my guardian angel, I sure hope so re COG and FM! Thanks for your analysis.

  19. tony Says:

    Bigger calendar.

    Man I really need an a a bigger calendar, I just noticed that today is the 3rds friday of the month, so now I got my answer why the market was so erratic.

    daily options expire today

  20. Michael Says:

    Hi Tony. Re Castlemoore’s philosophy, I wonder if they have sold out of their SNC position. They owned it before the big drop a few months ago.

  21. Eve Says:


    today is a witching options expiration day. I thought you read my posts – LOL – but I guess you don’t – because I’ve written several times this week to various people like Tom, Muntazir, KC, Slava, and Brian/ON today that today is Witching options expiration for the month of June (and for the quarter) – I’m just not sure if it’s a triple Witching day today or a quadruple.


  22. Slava Says:

    Well, I sold bnp too eary.. it sliced through its 4-day and continues to move higher.

  23. tony Says:


    you must ask them,

    How does their 10% work I have no clue but lets consider,

    do they only take the position off if price drops by 10% after they bought it or even if the trade was a winner made 30% before it falls by 10% I think it should be taken out no matter how much money you made before (if you are wrong you can always buy it back just like I did with SLF.

    So by looking at the chart, had they bought it in Jan 2011, I think they did, had they bought it in October 2011 they probably did as price went from October 40 to January 54 before falling back to 48 but this was a wait and see by this time.

    Looking at this chart just last week we had an 18/50 bull cross,
    If I remember correctly there was some options going for 44$ a few weeks after the big drop.
    So this is tempting to buy at 38 with a tight stop 36.89 (3%)
    Its scary but as the saying goes no guts no glory.

  24. tony Says:


    I have been busy this week, yesterday is my most active day on the board with 7 replies,

    and One week to go before Vacation starts for me.

  25. Eve Says:


    Yes I realize – you stated this week how busy you’ve been – see? I read your posts ;)

    You must be getting excited for your trip!! I hope you and the family have a FABULOUS time!!! And I hope you get, or got, a really good rate for your Euros :)


  26. Paula/NS Says:


    BNP has reached its 4MA of $14.64 on a daily chart. The weekly chart shows a 4MA of 16.64. I guess I have to wait a bit to see if it can reach that level and a lot depends on what happens in the macro picture over the next few days.

  27. tony Says:


    Funny thing the bubble heads on cnbc have been talking of the Euro at par with the USD

    I was lucky enough that I bought some back at the end of may, but I still need some more,

    worst case scenario I will do As I usually do have 50% cash the rest will go on my crediot card get put the rest of my expenses on my MC or AMEX and get more airmiles.

  28. Eve Says:


    Yes, that is great for you re BNP that it is FINALLY going UP today!! Yes, the 4 week MA is at $16.63 and it hasn’t touched it this week – BUT, for next week, that 4 week MA will be at a much lower value than it is today – due to this week’s big decline in BNP – so this means that next week, the 4 week MA may be at around $15.50 to $16.00 – so, this suggests that BNP should go up next week to AT LEAST $15 (or higher) – in order to TRY to get up to its 4 week MA that will be displayed on the chart starting on Monday. So, the hope is still there for it to get up to that $15 price “at least” for next week :)

    I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you Paula :)


  29. Paula/NS Says:

    Thanks, Eve. Time will tell.

  30. tony Says:


    Triple witching day we are sure of, but quadruple I have no clue.

  31. Eve Says:


    I recall in June 2010 when the Euro was down at that time too (it went to around $1.17 or $1.16) – and when it was trading at around $1.22, “they” were saying it was going to go to par then too with the USD – well, in June when it went to $1.17/ $1.16 (our dollar at the time was around $.98), I thought to myself at the time, “hmm, no way is it going to par – THIS is a GREAT rate for the Euro – I should buy some Euros RIGHT HERE!!” – that turned out to be the bottom area for the Euro LOL – and by August, it was back above $1.40 that year!

    So, I don’t believe it is going to par – not unless the Eurozone falls apart – and that may or may not occur as the Euro heads may do whatever it takes to keep the zone together and intact as it is! But it’s so up in the air right now to know what may or may not happen in the near or medium term!


  32. Eve Says:


    re today – ok, I just googled it – it’s triple witching today. Didn’t matter to me though what kind of witching day it is – it’s only important to know that it IS a witching day today – which means the markets are down on Monday for the Witches hangover day LOL – don’t know the % though of the reliability factor concerning the hangover such that the SPX is down on the following Monday – but I do know from the past Witchings, that it is more than 70% of the time that this turns out to be the case.


  33. tony Says:


    BNP vs a weekly chart,

    Monday we will see how the market reacts to the Greek election, if in luck price opens
    higher on monday and never looks back to the low it made this week, and the 4MA will be slighltly higher so 16.63 could be a few pennies higher, other wise if price opens lower then this weeks low 4MA will be lower and then you will for a short period have to content yourself of that 16. MA

    Now we are in the midst of two events after monday.
    1st event Summer vacation coming up by the end of this month.
    2nd event Summer Olympics at the end of July

    So who will have the upper hand this summer I believe option 1 will have the upper hand.

    as it last 9 weeks as for the second option only last 2 weeks.

  34. tony Says:


    Witching day

    the more witches we get drunk the better the hang over don’t you think ;)

    it would be a great opportunity for buying stocks

  35. smita Says:

    What do u think about http://FTP.TO, production will be up, but they have a business in Europe, I bought at low 18 and now it is up?


  36. Paula/NS Says:

    Thanks, tony. Next week should be interesting to say the least.

  37. Freddebuoy Says:

    I need some help here. Do fundamentals matter in the oil patch? Attached is a chart of CPG and PWT with a notation of some of the fundamentals. Both are nothing to write home about but it seems to me that PWT is at least as healthy as CPG yet investors a far more kind to CPG than they are to PWT. Both are paying out more in dividends than they earn (not sustainable) but PWT is dipping into its cash far less than is CPG to pay us investors. And CPG, with a P/E of over 35X, is far more over valued than is PWT at 16.4X. Not included in the chart is the profit margin numbers: CPG at 11.6%, PWT at 21.6%

    Am I missing something here or can we expect to see either PWT catch up to CPG or CPG catch up with PWT?

  38. Tawny Says:

    Martine, Tony, Freddebuoy

    I seldom ask for help these days. Wonder if you can help me here – or someone else too perhaps?

    I would like to proftect my US Dollars in my portfolios… mostly just in cash at the moment. So, I am looking to protect the US$ to Cdn.$.

    Do I buy some HDD or UDN or ? My brain cells are not working too well lately as I am going through very difficult withdrawal from a prescription drug…. this is going to be for a long time. Damn Doctors!

    So also looking where to put money for most of the summer, bond funds? US and Canada?
    Have done a little research in Canadian ones… CIBC Canadain Bond has done 8.5% – 1 yr. For ETFs BMO Mid Corp. bond index ETF has done 9.1. Just throwing these out there to show Bonds could be a good place to park for passive investing.

    Any help greatly appreciated.

  39. Amelia Says:

    I wouldn’t use VXX to hedge but put options instead – why? Risk is controlled. Spikes in VIX can indicate bottoms so you are timing just as much as timing any stock or index ETF. Its not a pure hedge like an option on the underlying – check the correlations variation to see. With puts you know precisely how much you can lose or gain given changes in market.
    For vol I look at VXO – the original vol formula because not many people do.

    Hold BNP – I talked to them yesterday and they said persistent below 80 oil and below 2 gas could mean a dividend cut but they also said their service costs might be 10-20% lower so this could help earnings. Seemed more concerned with oil price than gas.
    Also its so oversold it may not respond as you think if markets tank next week.

  40. Eve Says:


    With respect to the payouts of the divs by CPG:

    this has been discussed OFTEN on BNN’s Market Call and Market CAll Tonight (including one of the shows this week – I think it was with Veroinca Hirsch – I know it was the Market Call show though at 130 PM EST that it was discussed again this week) – they don’t pay out their divs from their earnings – they pay it out of I think it’s their cash flow. So, that is why the div is sustainable (many have discussed that including Peter Brieger and his partner, Christine Poole and others too although I can’t recall the names of the other people who’ve stated the same info re CPG on Market Call).

    I believe Veronica Hirsch stated that this is true of all the oil div payers – so, I assume that would include PWT as well.

    Maybe look up the Market Call shows from this week on BNN – OK, i just looked up the shows this week – and Veronica was on on Monday’s show. CHristine Poole was on on Wednesday but I don’t know if she discussed CPG on that show as I didn’t see the show that day – I know she has discussed this in past shows though regarding CPG and its div being sustainable. So, maybe check out the shows from this week – here’s the link for you:

    You can scroll down and find who was on the show each day this week.


  41. KC Says:

    Hi eve,

    With regard to, if you expect it to pull back on Monday, are you still saying its not a good idea to short it today and hold over the weekend?


  42. tony Says:


    ROFL, today it jumped have central bankers called them for some paper to print money on.

    Darn I wrote the following just to realize I was on a weekly chart.

    “for the time being ftp price will fall near the 4MA should this happen the question to ask yourself is can price around the 4MA a few days before pushing nort without ever moving south of the 16.50

    My trading style would be to buy on weakness at around 4MA to 16.50 if price falls below 16 get out, and if price can move above the 18MA have yousr stop loss just below the 18MA and if price can’t break above the 18MA liquidate 50% of your holding. start slowly liquidating as this could be resistance, you don’t want to ”

    On the daily chart, I think you should look how it behaves on the 18MA if it can HOLD then this is where I would be buying (19$) with a tight stop around 18.75. If not then you could get a better price probably 17.5-16.5 and if price breaks below 15.90 I would simply sell everything.

    if price should break above the 50MA then you can simply buy it with a tight stop underneath the 50MA

    price is in the midst of a bull bear battle, so this is something to watch out for

    as I said before no guts no glory.

  43. Rol Lew Says:

    Freddebouy, Eve,
    Dividend payments, CPG, etc

    To arrive at accounting net income you start with revenues,
    and you subtract expenses. Some expenses like salaries, utilities,
    use up cash. While other expenses, like depreciation, amortization,
    depletion allowances, do not use up any cash. They are just book entries.

    To arrive at cash flow, you can start with accounting income, and add back
    non-cash items. So cash flow will usually be greater, in “spendable dollars”
    than net income.

    Accounting is strange. Accounting for tax puposes is even stranger.

    For evaluating oil companies, the most often used yardstick is price to
    cash flow, not price to earnings. Investors digest of canada has p/cf
    listngs quite often. Less than 6 is very good , etc, etc.

  44. tony Says:


    I wouldn’t touch HDD, it a question of volume, what 100 sharesd traded today, to risky if the trade goes against you you can’t even get out of the trade.

    UDN ok only 36K shares traded today, its away from the 4MA by 6 cents, if price drops can the 18MA hold this one from drowning this is where I draw the line in the sand.

    my choice would try to hedge it with some puts probably the Sept or oct puts. gives you the insurance you need to withstand any drop in price I would call my broker to know how to buy the puts on usD if its feasible and all

  45. tony Says:



    I would choose PWT over CPG buying it here I would try my hand around the 4MA and if price falls below the 18MA I would simply bail on it unless its a fake then I would get back on the saddle but I think the 18MA will not fail PWT.

    as for CPG it has to break above the 50MA before we can say its a buy.

  46. Freddebuoy Says:

    Eve and Rol Lew…thanks muchly for your very informative replies to my question. I watched Veronica Hirsch’s inverview on BNN and, while informative and useful, she didn’t touch on my current dilema. I remember Veronica from many years ago and I have a great deal of repect for her ability as a fund manager.

    I will look up Investor’s Digest for price to cash flow info and thanks for that.

    I am slowly gathering starting to clear the fog on the oil patch but have a long way to go. For your interest, here are two pages from the Globe website (a good word here for Globe, it is one of my main research tool – the other one is the new Scotia iTrade website).

    And here’s one for GEI, mentioned by Veronica in her BNN interview as one of her top picks.

    Tawny, I would have a problem with anything “Bonds”, especially US and maybe Canadian as they are very highly priced right now.I have not done any research so I’m likely to be the last one to comment. Perhaps the corporate sector although they are somewhat correclated to the stock market.

    You might research ZUT, mentioned by Keith Richards on BNN last week. Great yield!

  47. Tawny Says:


    Thanks for your views on the US$.. I hold a little of the UDN already. I don’t mind if it goes down because that means my US dollars are going up. I am not trying to make money on it but to offset a decline of the US$. Thanks.

  48. Slava Says:

    Eve, Michael, others – is anyone buying vxx or hvu for the final 1.5 hours? Logically speaking, the volatility should pick up. Economic data released today for the USA wasn’t great and we are going into the uncertainly of the weekend.

  49. Slava Says:

    “Consumer sentiment fell from 79.3 to 74.1, well below forecasts of 77.8 and the worst result since December.

    The Empire State index fell from 17.1 to 2.3 in June, the lowest reading since November and well below expectations of 12.8.

    Industrial production declined 0.1% in May, below forecasts for an unchanged reading.”

  50. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava. Regarding VXX/HVU etc., I will see over the next 30 minutes, just in case the market starts to rally, but I will be holding over the weekend.

  51. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava. Indeed, we have had poor economic data all week, along with Spain and Italian bond yields rising, but Mr. Market doesn’t seem to be focused on those negatives. It’s all about Greece.

  52. Slava Says:

    Hi Michael, when you say “but I will be holding over the weekend.”.. it sounds like you meant to say that you won’t be holding over the weekend?

    Well, so far my cog and fm short positions are not working out. FM seems to want to close that gap and copper is strong today. Not a good feeling to be sitting on losses, again! and not knowing what my next step should be. I promised myself not to that but still end up in trouble from time to time.

  53. Paula/NS Says:


    Did you get back into BNP?

  54. Slava Says:

    Hi Paula, I’ll wait until next week. Both NG and oil are weak today, I’ll see if I can pick it up on a pullback if it takes place.

  55. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava. No, if I pick up VXX (or whatever), I will likely hold over the weekend rather than trading it in the next 40 minutes.

  56. Slava Says:

    Michael, but I suppose you would normally buy a small $ amount if you buy hvu? I remember a few weeks ago hvu dropped over -20% from Friday close to Monday opening.

  57. tony Says:

    How to be in the right company at the right time,

    here are a few companies since June 4th
    company %
    SLF +13%
    MFC +1%
    SU 9.5%
    CNQ 0% but 2 days ago you would have lost money 8.1%
    LB.TO 13.1%
    NA.TO 2.8%
    TD.TO 3.8% 4.9%

  58. tony Says:

    Here are a few companies I will look into buying in the near future. I usually have 5 companies in 5 different area 10 companies at most this time around I decided I was taking a stance in 2 extra companies for the fertilizer and the O&G

    and each of these companies will have to perform and not lose money otherwise they will be gone and invested in the better companies.

    Mon, Pot and TNH I particularly like MON and TNH tnh cause it has torque and MON because it didn,t drop that much.

    SU, ECA and ECA and Pey because they been trading above the 50MA for a month and more, SU because its been performing better then CNQ and CVE

    Usually I buy 10K$ of a company because I am choosing 3 companies in each of these fields I will drop to 7K so I can buy the 3rd company for by adding an extra 1K

    I have bought KO when it broke above the 50MA but it has been underperforming PEP.

    I am still looking for a good company based on TA in the industrial or tech. or Will diversify in both fields.

    I have one that looks appealing in the tech space just needs an extra push.
    I got a few others like slf TA wise its in the middle of the road don’t know if it will break above the 50MA or pull down to the 18MA. so will have to wait for the time being.

  59. kam Says:

    Hi eve,
    This monday is different.Triple expiry and down bias next monday will not work if ‘olive oil n feta cheese’ people choose a good govt. which everyone likes.if they screwup then yes spx might drop like a stone.Or it can start like an up day and during day reality sets in like spanish banks money last week and drop to close as it has been climbing wall of worry all week. who would have thought spx will end week at highest point going into greek’s election.My thinking is that as it is overbought so it will fall some next week.
    Don’t forget Mr bradley too.His date of 12 june has market going up and may stay so until july date when other euro problems might stick out their ugly heads and bring down the market.

  60. Michael Says:

    Slava, I bought UVXY last Friday and that’s when it opened about 20% down, but shot up by the end of the day. UVXY is now down around 5% since your post an hour ago. It will likely hit $15 soon.

  61. Slava Says:

    A couple of minutes ago I bought 5k HVU at $4.23.. already losing money. Do I dare hold hvu, that’s the question.

    P.S. and COG is at $36! even though NG is down. These markets are on fire today.

  62. tony Says:



    Its having a hard time getting above the 18MA since monday that doesn’t help at all.

    but if you take a look at the Vix it has been holding above the 50MA since early may.

  63. Slava Says:

    Terrible luck continues! I’m signing off for the day, have a great weekend everyone.

  64. Don F Says:


    I noticed a couple of weeks ago Keith Richards bought and sold when he thought the market might have a brief pullback. Anybody looked at this one.

  65. tony Says:

    Sorry Don

    I haven’t.

  66. Brian/ON Says:

    Tony –

    Intesting list of stocks you have there. Many of the same that I trade. You mention you may be investing shortly – shortly because you think the market has bottomed and will start to climb or just those particular companies going up? Or are you just thinking you may pick up some cheap next week because of the greek situation on the weekend?


  67. tony Says:

    I think this will be of interest to people shorting Nasty Gas

    On Thursday, Obama hit another key reelection theme — clean energy. At the same time, he also discussed plans to sell off oil and gas leases on 38 million acres of the Gulf of Mexico seafloor as part of a sweeping new domestic energy push.

    The leases could yield as much as 1 billion barrels of oil and 4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, the Interior Department estimates. The sale scheduled in June will be the second since the Deepwater Horizon disaster of 2010 when nearly 5 million barrels of crude spewed into the Gulf.

    Obama mentioned the planned lease sales in his remarks at Buckley Air Force Base in Aurora, Colorado, which has a 1-megawatt solar array and last year test-piloted jets that run on advanced biofuels.

    Republicans have been fiercely critical of Obama’s energy stance, questioning investments in certain clean energy companies as well as the recent rejection of a permit to build a pipeline to transport oil from Canada’s tar sands to the Gulf of Mexico.

    Obama, however, insisted Thursday that his energy plan is an “all-out, all-in, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every available source of American energy.”

    Among other things, the president also promised more federal assistance for local governments to upgrade their automotive fleets while also pushing new tax incentives for cleaner corporate vehicles.

    Obama said the administration is working to develop up to five highway natural gas corridors, and he announced a new competition to encourage the development of breakthroughs for natural gas vehicles.

  68. tony Says:

    Hi Brian

    US had its “bank stress test” and now we the investor have the “TA stress test”
    most of these companies are either trading close to a support

    I just want to see how most of these companies hold up can the 50MA hold price or will
    it fail, for instance TNH support is the 200MA since may 18th its been bouncing off of it. and today it closed right on it should it bounce off of it we could be in for lots of mula.

    here is a chart I posted a few months ago on WZR.V I mentioned to the blogger to look if the 150 holds before moving in and look for yourself what happened.

    chart dates from feb 13th

  69. tony Says:


    I think these companies are poised to move higher but we will see,

    with the uncertainty in Greece, we have to wait until 10AM monday to see how Wall St will digest the news.

    I don’t want to buy a company at a cheaper price I want to buy it if it can hold its grounds should it fail I will take the lower price but only when I will see price trying to hold its ground.

    and companies like ECA, PEY, MON have been hoilding theirs, SU this one has been outperforming the others and I have noticed in the past that companies that outperform tend generate more money.

  70. tony Says:

    closing shop for the w-e

    to all a nice w-e

    and happy fathers day to all the daddies.

  71. Martine Says:


    To protect your $USD, you could potentially use the FXC (canadian dollar)or even EWC to add canadian market exposure so then you benefit from both the appreciation of the TSX and the $CAD while maintaining your funds in $USD. The SPX and the $CAD are correlated while the TSX, since commodity based, trades inverse to the $USD.

    You could also hedge with FXA (australian dollar). It currently has a yield of 3.86% which is not bad in this current market environment. It should however be a short term trade to the end of July. There might be more easing coming from the central bank of Australia which would be bearish for the $AUD longer term.

    For bonds, if markets continue to bounce for the next few weeks up to the end of July, it is not a good place to be. August is a strong month for bonds. In $USD, you can use either IEF (7-10 years) or TLT (20 years +), the latter being more volatile given a longer duration.

    I hope this helps.

  72. Martine Says:


    I read all your comments, but I want to study more closely your approach when shorting in a situation of contango. I might get back to you after I analyze more closely. VXX certainly took it on the nose today. A put option would have been offered good protection.

    I use an investment account outside a RRSP and TFSA and I trade directly. No middle man.

    Could you post again your last chart? The link does not work for some reason.

    Thank you again for all your comments. Have a good weekend.

  73. Slava Says:

    I’m trying to recall when is a good time to get into base metals stocks this year according to seasonality as per Don V. I remember he was on bnn in May discussing this very issue. Does anyone know? Thanks.

  74. Slava Says:

    tony, if you get a chance on the weekend, what do you think of now? Here is a weekly chart.

  75. WLM Says:


    From BNN Shows – Jun 15th, 2012.

    Jaime Carrasco – DON’T BUY.

    Has it as an out perform. In copper and base metals, which is a sector he has a problem with – Chinese economy. Prefers pipelines and other sectors, especially TCK.B.

  76. Slava Says:

    Thompson Creek Metals anyone? At 2009 lows, up +8% today, P/E 3.62.. had a rough first quarter… moly, copper and gold.

  77. Slava Says:

    WLM, thanks for the info.. I’m a bit confused though – he says “Don’t buy” but then “has it as an Outperform”?

  78. Slava Says:

    Hi Wayne, if you happen to be around this weekend – what are yours and your friend’s (the one who trades NG futures) view on natural gas now? Much appreciated.

  79. WLM Says:

    For Slava – # 77.

    select; Part Two [06-15-12 6:05 PM]

  80. Slava Says:

    WLM, thanks :)

  81. Muntazir Says:

    Hi Eve,Tony & those who follow (gold) seasonality,
    I would appreciate if you go to or on this blog to the link for stock market outlook for jun 14 & see gold futures seasonality ( I am unable to copy/paste) which shows gold going down from july-sept. this is opposite of what we discussed in the past.Am I missing something.
    Maybe Jon V can answer as well + do not see outlook for jun 15.
    Thanks in advance

  82. lrm Says:

    Here is the link for the gold futures seasonality chart:

    And certainly it show gold going down from July – September!

    Re the outlook for June 15, I think they had a long weekend!

  83. Rol Lew Says:

    It is “good” that you are questioning the equity clock “forecast”,
    because it is not really a forecast at all – far from it. It is in
    fact a fitted curve, based on the LAST 10 years of data.

    If you can get 5 -6 individual years of GLD data,
    look at what happened each June, July, August, etc.,

    That maybe could help you to better make your “guess”
    on what is a good time to go long GLD this year.

    Who knows? Maybe it was on May 21st this year :)

  84. mick/nv Says:

    Here’s another seasonality look at gold for those that are interested. It shows gold going up from Jul to Dec

  85. Muntazir Says:

    Irm,Rollew & mick/nv
    Thanks for the response.
    Another question re ex div date. I was looking at sc-t & says ex div date jun 27. Does this mean one has to own stock on jun 27 to get div. Also will the stock go down by div amount on jun 27 or 28. I know Eve has wriiten about it but can not remember ( or am confused). Also do same rules apply to US stocks. Thanks again

  86. mick/nv Says:


    You need to buy the stock a day before the ex-dividend date to qualify for the dividend. this might explain it better for you

  87. Rol Lew Says:

    That equity clock chart shows it down about 1.5% from July to Sept.

    Go and lok at GLD from Jul 1st to Sept 1st last year.

    148 to 184 up 36 or about 24%….. not down.
    Similar story in 2010 –
    114 to 129 Jul – Sept.

    Maybe, just maybe, I would be better served by using
    a chart from the current year, 2012.

    Maybe the big move for 2012 has already started,
    and it is not even July yet. Who really knows for certain?
    The buy the dips crowd have got it right, since mid May.
    That is typical bull trend behaviour.

  88. WLM Says:

    # 84

    See Average Daily Gold Price, 2001 – 2011;

  89. Muntazir Says:

    Heard on 680 news pro Europe bail out party won in Greece ( though will have to form coalition)

  90. CJ Says:

    Euro Rises With Stock-Index Futures After Greek Elections

  91. Slava Says:

    Happy Father’s day to all the dads out there.. I hope you had a great Sunday.

  92. tony Says:

    Hi Slava,

    you asked me about the weekly chart so here it goes
    Ok looking at the chart I wouldn’t be touching this one with a 100 foot pole, yes 100 not a 10 foot pole here is why it has been having so much problems getting above the 50MA that last time the 18 tried its hand to cross above it was repelled and this happened just last april. So this weekly gives me the impression it wouldn’t move higher then 20.50.

    now If you had asked about the daily now we are talking.
    just MACD Histogram(12,26,9) bars have been above 0 for the last 3weeks. all the inducators have been positive.

    my only concern is where do we open tomorrow, as price is above the 50MA but in the past we had problems holding above this level. but should price open around 19.14$ the 4MA would about 19.01 so I would be buying anything close to it,
    so I have 2 concerns, 1 concern about the market and 1 concern about FM
    concern #1 what is Wall St Sentiment over Greek election, we should know about by 10AM tomorrow.

    concern #2 can the 18MA which is 4.6% below the 50MA hold should Wall st be depressed on the greek election? so now you know I would be a buyer on the 4MA but a seller if we cross below the 18MA.

    so lets assume we open near 19$ and hold that level by 10AM it could be a good opportunity going long but should we plummet below 18 I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.

    Volume wise, I think the last bull just sold at the end of may,
    my only concern is that its been hitting its head against the 18MA if it can break above it then it could go a lot higher otherwise we will see more selling.I would prefer to get into with a stop loss below the 18MA then with a stop loss which is bottomless. why do I say bottomless because if memory serves me right they had an offer on the table to get bought out, and refused.

    this is another good strategy for shorters short anything that refuses to get bought out.

    pot, tcm..

  93. tony Says:

    Damm if we do and Damn if we don’t

    I was looking at the spx chart and here are two things I have seen out of the chart.

    resistance at 50MA and a reverse Head and Shoulder. LS 1291 H 1266 RS 1301.

    so the 50MA should either be broken or be used as resistance.
    we should get an answer pretty soon on which side of the market to play with.

  94. Slava Says:

    Thanks Tony, did you have a nice weekend and father’s day?

  95. tony Says:

    Not kidding here

    while I was watching the Italian news, while they were talking about the greek election at bottom of the screen, they mentionned a few elected members come are Neo Nazis,

    I taught there were no more neo nazis group.

    you got to be kidding me the greek people have elected some neo nazis.

  96. Slava Says:

    tony, it seems like markets are going to open higher tomorrow morning given the “green” in Asian trading and strong Euro. So the tide will probably lift all boats tomorrow morning. The question is – will it be sustainable? Last Monday the markets sold off quite a bit after the strong opening.

  97. tony Says:


    my pleasure.

    Had a nice w-e wheater was beautiful, we had a blast. and my sons gave me their own personal gift and the little one, the daycare had photocopied is little hand with a little poem attached to it, it was so adorable, that I had a tear in my eye as I was reading it.

  98. tony Says:


    I’d rather see the Wall St open at 1330 then at 1350, cause if we do open at 1350 market will pulldown to the 4MA (1327), so opening at 1350 the 4MA will be what 1334 so we will lose ground.

  99. tony Says:


    last monday we had exactly the Price vs the 4MA at work we opened higher then the 4MA and we simply came down to close the 4MA and since price was already on a selloff, they decided why not test the 18MA.

  100. Slava Says:

    tony, re “the little one, the daycare had photocopied is little hand with a little poem attached to it” – how cute! I bet you’ll treasure that note forever :)

    Is the whole family going to Europe or just you and your wife? I’m so looking forward to Italy – I’m completely in love with that country. Instead of losing money in the stock market in the last 14 months I should have devoted that time to learning Italian! :)

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