Tech Talk for Monday December 17th 2012

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday December 17th

U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 5 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to a new offer by John Boehner to resolve the Fiscal Cliff. Boehner has offered to raise the tax rate for people earning more than $1 million.

Index futures added to gains following release of the December Empire State Manufacturing Index. The Index recovered to -3.7 from a revised -8.1 in November.

Inmet (IMN $69.83) is expected to open higher after First Quantum raised its offer to purchase the company at $72 per share in cash and shares. Value of the offer is $5.1 billion.

Dahlman Rose upgraded its ratings on U.S. airline stocks. US Air, United Continental and Delta Air were upgraded from Hold to Buy. Jet Blue was upgraded from Sell to Hold.

Travelers added $0.43 to $73.80 after RBC Capital upgraded the stock from Outperform to Top Pick.

Apple added $2.26 to $512.37 despite a downgrade by Citigroup from Buy to Neutral.

Texas Instruments fell $0.43 to $30.37 after Sterne Agee downgraded the stock from Neutral to Under Perform.

 

Technical Watch

The Guggenheim Airline ETF (NYSE:FAA) – $34.00 is expected to open higher this morning after Dahlman Rose upgraded the sector. The sector has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Units broke above resistance at $33.43 on Friday to reach a 17 month high. Units trade above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive in mid-September. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Preferred strategy is to accumulate units at current or lower prices.

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Economic News This Week

The December Empire Manufacturing Index to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Monday is expected to improve to 2.0 from -5.2 in November

November Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to slip to 873,000 from 894,000. Building Permits are expected increase to 876,000 from 866,000 in October.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected increase to 345,000 from 343,000.

Canadian October Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in September.

Third revision of third quarter GDP to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to remain unchanged at 2.7%

The December Philadelphia Fed Index to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday is expected improve to 1.0 from -10.7

November Leading Economic Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to slip 0.2% from a gain of 0.2% in October

Canadian October Real GDP to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.1% versus unchanged in September.

Canadian November Consumer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to slip 0.1% versus a gain of 0.2% in October.

November Personal Income to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus no change in October. November Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.3% versus a decline of 0.2% in October

November Durable Goods Orders to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.2% in October. Excluding Transportation, Orders are expected to decline 0.4% versus a gain of 1.8% in October.

December Michigan Sentiment to be released at 9:15 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 74.0 from 74.5 in November

 

Earnings News This Week

Tuesday: Oracle

Wednesday: Bed Bath & Beyond, FedEx, General Mills, Jabil Circuit, Paychex

Thursday: Conagra, Darden Restaurants, Discover Financial, KB Homes, Micron, Nike, Red Hat, Research in Motion.

 

Equity Trends

The S&P 500 Index fell 4.49 points (0.32%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral on a move above 1,434.27. Next resistance is at 1,470.96. Support is at 1,343.35. The Index remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing signs of rolling over.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average fell last week to 62.60% from 66.20%.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 69.40% from 68.40%.

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Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week to 66.40% from 64.00% and remained above its 15 day moving average.

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Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased last week to 61.04% from 58.63% and moved above its 15 day moving average.

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The TSX Composite Index added 137.05 points (1.13%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to up on a break above 12,252.27. The Index remained above its 20 and 200 day moving averages and moved above its 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from negative to at least neutral.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 50.60% from 39.26%.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 55.82% from 49.80%.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 20.12 points (0.15%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral when the average moved above 13,290.75. Next resistance is at 13,661.87. Support is at 12,471.49. The Average remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is at least neutral and showing early signs of outperformance.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks increased last week to 66.67% from 60.00% and remained above its 15 day moving average.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week to 50.59% from 49.56% and remained above its 15 day moving average.

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The NASDAQ Composite Index slipped 6.71 points (0.23%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral on a move above 3,033.85. Support is at 2,810.80 and next resistance is at 3,196.93. The Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving average and fell below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is neutral at best with negative overtones.

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The Russell 2000 Index added 1.48 points (0.18%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral on a move above 830.55. The Index remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 57.89 points (1.13%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral on a move above 5,213.49. Next resistance is at 5,231.15. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from neutral to positive.

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The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 39.25 points (0.86%) last week. An intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above resistance at 4,602.50. The Index remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from neutral to positive.

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The Nikkei Average gained 210.37 points (2.21%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Average remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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The Europe 350 iShares added $0.64 (1.67%) last week. An intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above $38.55. Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 88.84 points (4.31%) last week on news of stronger than expected economic growth. Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral on a break above 2,145.00 on Friday. The Index remains above its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from neutral to positive.

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The Athens Index added 16.32 points (1.94%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Index remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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Currencies

The U.S. Dollar virtually collapsed last week after Congress and the President failed to negotiate a deal on the Fiscal Cliff and after the Federal Reserve unofficially confirmed a Quantitative Easing Infinity program. The Index plunged 90.84 (1.04%). The Index remains below its 200 day moving average and fell below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. The Index completes a massive head and shoulders pattern on a break below 78.60.

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The Euro gained 2.33 (1.80%) last week. An uptrend was established on Friday on a close above 131.72. The Euro remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending up once again and have returned to an overbought level.

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The Canadian Dollar added 0.31 cents U.S. (0.31%) last week in response to weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 99.43 and resistance is at 103.73. The Canuck Buck remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

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The Japanese Yen fell another 1.41 (1.16%) last week prior to Japan’s national election where a change in political power is anticipated. The new regime is pushing toward an easy money policy. The Yen remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are deeply oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

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Commodities

The CRB Index surprisingly slipped 1.02 (0.34%) last week despite weakness in the U.S. Dollar and despite favourable economic news from China. The Index remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and showing early signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Gasoline added $0.05 per gallon (1.92%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. Gasoline remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral at best.

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Crude Oil added $0.73 per barrel (0.85%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. Support is at $84.05 and resistance is at $90.33. Response to the OPEC meeting was negligible. Crude remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Stochastics already are oversold. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Natural Gas plunged $0.24 per MBtu (6.76%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from up to neutral on a break below support at $3.47. Natural gas remains above its 200 day moving average and below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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The S&P Energy Index slipped 2.54 points (0.49%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to up on a move above 534.42. The Index remains above its 20 and 200 day moving averages and below its 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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The Philadelphia Oil Services Index fell 7.26 points (3.28%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. The Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages and fell below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Gold slipped $7.70 per ounce (0.45%) last week despite weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Intermediate trend is neutral. Support is at $1,672.50 and resistance is at 1,755.00. Gold remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages and above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.

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The AMEX Gold Bug Index added 3.95 points (0.91%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. Strength relative to gold changed from negative to at least neutral.

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Silver slipped 0.79 per ounce (2.38%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. Silver remains above its 200 day moving average, but fell below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to gold has changed from positive to at least neutral

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Platinum added $9.20 per ounce (0.57%) last week. An intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above $1,626.60. Strength relative to gold remains positive.

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Palladium gained $0.40 per ounce (0.06%) last week. An intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above $705.80 to touch an 8 month high. Strength relative to gold remains positive.

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Copper added $0.01 per lb. (0.27%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Copper remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Copper remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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The TSX Global Metals and Mining Index jumped 42.73 points (4.53%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. The Index remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. ‘Tis the season!

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Lumber gained $9.66 (2.77%) to close at another 6 year high. Lumber remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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The Grain ETN lost $0.88 (1.56%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $54.27. Units trade below their 20 and 50 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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The Agriculture ETF gained 0.58 (1.10%) last week. An intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move above $53.19. Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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Interest Rates

The yield on 10 year Treasuries increased 8.1 basis points (4.98%) last week. Yield remains in a five month range between 1.548% and 1.892%. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Conversely, the long term Treasury ETF slipped $0.83 (0.67%) last week.

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Other Issues

The VIX Index added 1.10 (6.92%) last week. It moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages

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Earnings news this week will focus on Oracle, FedEx, Nike and Research in Motion.

Economic news this week is expected to help equity markets through encouraging news from the Empire Index, Philadelphia Fed, Personal Income, Personal Spending and Durable Goods Orders.

Short term momentum indicators generally are overbought. Intermediate technical indicators also are overbought, but continue to trend higher.

The Fiscal Cliff remains the top issue influencing equity markets. Most likely scenario is a resolution before the end of the year, but in two steps. The first step will handle issues with a deadline at the end of the year (e.g. tax rates on dividends and capital gains). The second step will focus on the “Grand Plan” that will include Tax Reform on the personal and corporate level as well as entitlements and the debt ceiling. Equity markets will respond favourably when the first step is announced (but not with a big upside move) because short term uncertainties are removed. The second step is by far the most important and is likely to create the greatest volatility in equity markets. Will Obama moved toward the middle of the political spectrum during the second step? If he does, confidence in the corporate community will be at least partially restored and large cash position will start to be employed in ways that will help the U.S. economy. On the other hand, if Obama maintains his current antagonistic attitude against capital enterprise, the large cash positions will be employed in other ways (e.g. share buy backs, employment of capital outside of the U.S.). Unfortunately, some corporations already are starting to choose to employ their large cash positions by issuing special dividends and by announcing share buy backs. The completion of the second step will determine the direction for equity markets in 2013.

Historically, the strongest three week period for North American equity markets is from December 15th to January 7th. According to Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide, average gain during the period since 1950 was 2.0%. The gain by the NASDAQ Composite Index was better. Average gain per period since 1971 was 3.0%. As the book says, “Santa arrives early and leaves late”. One of the reasons for the Santa Claus rally is the end of tax loss selling pressures (particularly in the gold equity sector this year). Other reasons include upbeat reports released by the investment community predicting encouraging prospects for the next year, lower than average institutional volume and a buoyant mood by individual investors during the Christmas holiday period. This year, the first step toward resolution of the Fiscal Cliff provides an extra “kicker”.

Sectors with positive seasonality at this time of year continue to outperform the S&P 500 Index including Agriculture, forest product equities, lumber, industrials, semiconductors, biotech, Europe, base metals, silver equities, platinum and copper.

 

The Bottom Line

Most equity markets in the world and major sectors currently are in intermediate uptrends. As the saying goes, “The trend is your friend”. Preferred strategy is to accumulate favoured sectors on weakness for an intermediate rally that is likely to last at least until Inauguration Day in the third week in January.

Thackray’s 2013 Investment Guide

Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s Guide is here. Order through www.alphamountain.com , Amazon, Chapters or Books on Business. Great stocking stuffer for Christmas!

 

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The latest weekly update on ETFs in Canada to December 7th is available at

http://www.etfinsight.ca/

 

Tom Rogers’ Weekly Elliott Wave Blog

Following is a link:

http://www.tomrogers.net/signpost.htm

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following are examples:

 

U.S. Dollar Index Futures (DX) Seasonal Chart

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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC December 14th 2012

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28 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday December 17th 2012”

  1. Tawny Says:

    Re CGI : Bot into it but what will happen to the stock after market reopens after Christmas?

    TORONTO, CANADA — (Marketwire) — 12/10/12 — Canadian General Investments, Limited (TSX: CGI)(TSX: CGI.PR.B)(TSX: CGI.PR.C)(LSE: CGI) today declared a special cash capital gains dividend of $0.52 per common share. This dividend is payable on December 28, 2012 to shareholders of record on December 24, 2012.
    Including the quarterly income dividends of $0.06 per common share, total cash dividend payments of $0.76 per common share in 2012 represent a yield to investors of 5.0% based on the December 7, 2012 closing market price of $15.15.
    Canadian General Investments, Limited, established in 1930, is one of Canada’s largest closed-end investment companies with total portfolio assets in excess of $600 million as at December 7, 2012.

  2. jean-pierre clément Says:

    tom rogers site has been closed for numerous weeks now!

  3. Paul-R Says:

    Tawny,

    CGI,low volume,may be hard to get a bid after december.

    do you know the ticker for Italy?

    Thanks & good luck on CGI

  4. Brian K Says:

    Canuk & Tony,

    Thanks for the responses Friday.

  5. Tawny Says:

    Paul-4

    EWI = Italy

  6. Freddebuoy Says:

    Tawny, thanks for your response re XIN on Friday.

    There are at least two major differences between XIN and VEU. XIN uses the MSCI EAFE (usually considered to be the world x North America) index while Vanguard uses FTSE World x USA. Maybe it’s Canada that makes the difference in performance but I doubt it.

    The other difference and the one that is most important to me since I invest with Canadian dollars, is that XIN is hedged to Canadian dollars. Investments in US dollars are just too expensive. I can cost me, sometimes more than 2 or 2.5% each way, so I must make 4 to 5% just to break even. VEU has outperformed XIN by 5.66 points from my initial investment date of May 25th, which would have been worth it – this time maybe. But how do I know that going in? And frankly, the extra isn’t worth the hassle.

    Too bad I’m just a little guy and don’t have the luxury of a US dollar account.

  7. Paul-R Says:

    Tawny,

    Thanks for your repy.

  8. Tawny Says:

    Freddebuoy

    You are not a little investor and probably have way more than me in the market… I am with RBC (thought you were too). I exchanged chunks of C$ into US$ over time when it was favourable to do so and sometimes I didn’t care if it was in my favour or not as the investment can outweigh that factor. It is just one currency trade one time. So I hold a US$ account and C$ Account in all my portfolios, including registered ones. If you are with RBC, I don’t see why you would be paying currency exchange each time? You should check this out with them.

    So, as I said, it is for me anyway, a choice as to which cash currency is available to me when I am wanting to take a trade. I am trying to use US$ with investments which are simply not available much in C$… or the volumes are too low. So, I am using US$ now to buy Int’l funds. Must say tho’ it is tempting to just stick with XIN or VEU or FEZ, but some individual countries are quite compelling (only with US$)…

  9. Teresa Says:

    Tawny:

    I just bought some HD and gib/a.to this morning.

  10. Tawny Says:

    Teresa

    Re#9. Thanks – GIB.A = CGI Group a Technology company, is that right. Trading just at it’s 20 dma?

    HD is up so much already this year – you feel it has more room to advance?

    Did you buy China ETF, FXI already quite high?

  11. Teresa Says:

    Tawny:

    #10 – Yes, GIB.A is the the CGI group.
    HD – I think it will go higher. But I am just trading it.

    For china, as I own some stocks in my Account in China. So don’t have any China ETF.

  12. tomC Says:

    which is the most tax efficient US S&P etf with low fees

  13. kam Says:

    Hi all
    Daily melt down in volatility is on again. Holding xiv since 18.81 and will sell atleast half by day end regardless where it closes. This is a very predictable pattern and one can make good dinner money in last 30 mins of the market close if watch the charts and trade properly.

  14. kam Says:

    Re-13,
    Damn Cibc investor edge.It froze in last minute on me and I couldn’t get out of whole position.Total paper gain of $1000 as of close though.
    out of half my position at 19.28. Wow, that is a fast $500 I cashed out trading.( way behind you Wayne, you can pull $2000 on nugt,dust in that time on whom I always end up losing on lately)All that one in 1hr 5mins. fingers cross though on the other half for tomorrow.But looks not too bad as vix had started going down again from 17. So maybe that $500 paper gain will not be a loss tomorrow :( . After hours xiv is trading at 19.47 now.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p00878742004

    I just checked as spx is up +1%, gdx did nothing and gold traded flat.

  15. Ana Says:

    Last week, I saw someone ask, on another blog, if it was time to buy RGR and SWHC. I have never understood how people could invest their money in these companies. Please take a stand now and do not promote these companies, now and forever more.

  16. Tawny Says:

    Kam

    Are you trading both xiv and??hvu, swinging both?

  17. Tawny Says:

    Ana

    If only we could stop the buying of guns by not investing in the companies that make them! I saw on news that there are more gun stores in the US then McDonalds. If we didn’t invest in Mcd. Would that stop people from eating junk food which is also killing masses. I do understand how you feel! They need to change the gun laws but there is so much resistance. Aren’t we glad to live in Canada, eh!

  18. Ana Says:

    Tawny,

    Do not underestimate the power of one. We certainly can change our own behaviour. We can then ask people to consider changing their behaviour. That is how the world is changed, one person at a time.

    This issue needs everyone’s attention.

  19. Tawny Says:

    Ana

    I do understand but it will take a gun law change to really make any difference and in the states apparently there are so many guns in already in hands it would seem they would have to confiscate them. Now that would cause an uproar and political mayhem!

    Anyway, this horrific incident has the world’s attention for sure and I sense this time the law will get changed… I am picking up a swing in this direction, at long last!

  20. Ana Says:

    Until those laws come and after those laws come, we can as investors, not grow those gun companies by not investing in them. A simple act that would speak perhaps louder than words.

  21. Neil AB Says:

    CLQ.T (Canada Lithium)
    Interesting chart here for those who are so inclined. Lots going on. Junior miner, based in Quebec. Supposed to have a very large (tho I understand perhaps low grade deposit). The catalyst, as I understand it, is that they are supposed to be getting their plant running this month and production starting in the first quarter. Of course, this can work both ways, often intial production ramp up attempts reveal lots of problems. There has been some M&A in the area of recent. Sorry, for the T.A. I have to refer you to stockcharts as I still haven’t figured out how to import the chart to this site.
    My short take on the T.A. would be:
    Uptrend since June, though the uptrend line was broken and the stock has been consolidating since October (this, of course, can be a good thing). It currently sits right at short term (March, Sept. and Nov.) resistance (.70-.72). There is longer term resistance at around .80. The stock just had a positive MACD cross. Bollinger Bands appear to be squeezing and the last couple of times this occured, the stock went higher. Full Stochasics are approaching o/b. However, a major technical concern is that RSI, MACD, full stoch. and Force Index all show a negative divergence on the recent highs. To me this is a major concern. Though it is a small cap stock, it trades on pretty high volumes, liquidity would not appear to be an issue.
    Anyway, this may be one to keep an eye on. I don’t own any. A break through .75 and certainly through .80 on volume would suggest one consider buying given the apparent positive fundamentals.
    Would appreciate anyone’s input who may have an interest.

  22. Tawny Says:

    Neil

    Is it you with A trade on UYM? Cannot remember :(. Looking for target as I believe seasonality is only to early Jan.

  23. Tawny Says:

    Ana

    Just thinking and I need to tell you I am not the least interested in owning gun stock. Nor tobacco. There are other products I have mixed feelings about, there is often many ways to look at the use and value of products. The last couple of days I cannot see a child without choking up… We cannot watch this news item anymore – too heartbreaking.

  24. DD Says:

    Neil AB,

    #21. “Sorry, for the T.A. I have to refer you to stockcharts as I still haven’t figured out how to import the chart to this site.”

    Just click on linkable version right under the chart.

    Hope this helps!

    DD

  25. Tawny Says:

    DD

    Hi there. How is Arizona? Over the nasty cold? No fires I hope.

  26. DD Says:

    Tawny,

    Hi. Its been a while eh. Arizona? Never been, where did you get that from.
    lol

  27. Tawny Says:

    Ana

    Just heard some evening news… for sure people are really enraged now and wanting action — I think gun control will come quite fast. But what about the gazillions of guns that are out there in peoples homes in the U.S. now? It will possibly be “too little too late.” Maybe the government can pay them double the value of the gun to turn them in, or something like that. Oh, I am glad I live in Canada.

  28. kam Says:

    Hi Tawny,
    re-xiv/hvu
    sometimes I do but I am really uncomfortable holding hvu/vxx overnight lately.I know vix can spike anytime but they are pretty much shut down nowadays. When can they blew high if not now when t-14 days to fiscal cliff? QE is another big reason where plunge protection team is there.put/call below 1 so not much premium for buying/selling options for spx.All these mean less volatility and good trade if you can do it.
    If you a stuck with hvu/vxx and don’t cut your losses then that price might never come back.Never had lately. hvu mover from 29.50 this summer to 5.25 now. So why bother buying and hoping.

    Only one thing to remember is this- VOLATILITY SPIKES AND JUST DRIFT DOWN MOST OF THE TIME. So just wait on sideline until rocket runs out of fuel and gravity pulls it down. Then you buy just XIV/HVI and wait. Then rinse and repeat.

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