ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Tuesday December 18th
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 3 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to continuing negotiations to resolve the Fiscal Cliff.
Hewlett Packard (HPQ $14.23) is expected to open lower after Topeka downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell.
Goldman Sachs added $1.05 to $124.54 after Susquehanna upgraded the stock from Neutral to Positive.
Technical Watch
Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) – $124.54 added 0.9% after Susquehanna upgraded the stock from Neutral to Positive. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $113.36 and resistance at $126.19. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid-July. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/clip_image00117.png "clip_image001[1]")
Interesting Charts
Encouraging news about a possible resolution of the Fiscal Cliff triggered nice bounces by broadly based U.S. equity indices from near their 50 day moving average. ‘Tis the season!
The Financial Service sector led the advance following upgrades of the sector by Meredith Whitney and following positive comments by Dick Bove.
Strongest subsector in the financial services sector was the financial services industry (i.e. big banks with big brokerage, ETF and mutual fund operations).
The Uranium stocks “came alive” yesterday. Nice breakout by the Uranium Miners and Nuclear ETFs on technical signs of outperformance!
Cameco, the largest uranium producer in the world led the move. Nice breakout on increasing volume!
Seasonal influences on Cameco recently turned positive
Cameco Corporation (TSE:CCO) Seasonal Chart
The FTC has approved JP Morgan’s proposal to launch a physically backed copper ETF. Blackrock’s iShares also has applied for approval and likely will receive a green light. When launched, the ETFs are expected eventually to tie up as much as 70% of the physical copper currently held at the London Metal Exchange. Prior to launch of the silver, platinum and palladium physically backed ETF, prices moved smartly higher in anticipation of declining available supply. Look for the same scenario for copper. Copper already has a positive technical profile and has just entered its period of seasonal strength.
The Homebuilder ETF moved smartly higher yesterday on rumors that the mortgage interest deduction in Fiscal Cliff negotiations is “off the table”. Call option activity in XHB spiked.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Following is an example:
Copper Futures (HG) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC December 17th 2012
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December 18th, 2012 at 10:14 am
Teresa
As I recall you got into Uranium a while back. Do you think it is too late to buy UUU?
December 18th, 2012 at 11:40 am
Hi Tawny:
I think there still room to buy UUU. I actually added more on last Friday. Here is the weekly chart of UUU: RSI, MACD, Slow STO just started run.
But on Daily chart, it might pull back to ~2.0. That would be an ideal entry point.
December 18th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Forgot the char:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUU.TO&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78572802102&a=283892564&listNum=1
December 18th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
CCJL22124190000
a 10 – bagger in the last 3 weeks.
ohh, sorry, it’s too late now
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=CCJL22124190000&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=4
some observation, & lots of good luck.
take away the observation and it’s just gambling.
December 18th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Observe what?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CCJ&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p18217752987
rsi – crossed 50% 2 wks ago
price crossed ema 14 days ago
macd histogram turned positive 19 days ago with 12/26 crossover
that’s why it is now too late (for this cycle).
stochastics does not stay over-bot for very long, and it’s there now.
CCJ had 4 ok cycles this year. There will be another one… sometime.
December 18th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
same approach with ciena – this cycle is finito
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CIEN&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p82623915628
December 18th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Hi Tawny-re out discussion on US trading costs. I have been reviewing these with my on-line broker, Scotia iTrade and, as I expected, I am paying the end-of-day exchange rate (spread price) only. But this can be considerable. For example, I purchased a US ETF on May 25 this year and paid an exchange rate of 1.043%; I purchased more on May 31 and paid a rate of 1.054%. My average cost in US dollars is $31.12 and the current price of the ETF as I write this is $33.08, up almost $2.00 per share. Yet I’m still in a losing 0.17% right now.
Scotia iTrade has a program that, for $30/month, I would pay the exchange rate without the spread price. I am trying to determine what the difference is. Thirty bucks a month is not all that much but being the cheapskate that I am, I want to know how much I would save per trade.
Can anyone tell me what that (spread price vs. non-spread price) would be?
December 18th, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Freddebuoy:
Is it $30/quarter or /month?
December 18th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Hi Tawny,
I like the night chart of UUU.to. Did you read my msg to you last night about xiv/hvu? well xiv worked as planned. Sold 1/2 of overnight hold at a round figure $20.00. still holding 1/4 of day trade(500 sh) and if it closes towards low for the day I will just pack that trade.I am not close to computer today much so Iphone will be best friend today.
What you say of gold/gold stocks? man, I now wonder that why I even buy these stock to just lose? And when i sell they will bottom just like the dumb money we are called. I have changed my style to trade gold stocks but not completely and once a while I go in it just doesn’t work out and now $can is dropping hgu more comparing with gdx.
by the way someone can try hvu today if you want with a stop. It might move up as it stop going down with spx going up,I AM NOT.I will just rinse and repeat xiv/hvi
December 18th, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Bought some lun.to and wrn.v this morning
December 18th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Rol Lew – Thanks for the comment on that site that tracks tza – tna many days back. You asked me a question that day about ery – erx switching if I do or follow. Sorry I could not get back to you earlier. I have never bought these ery erx etfs. Just like I have not -in many months- bought into any of the financials either.
congrats on your ccj 10 bagger! Good observations pays.
Bravo.
December 18th, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Teresa, it’s $30 per quarter. Sorry of the mis-information above.
* For trades in U.S. securities in Scotia iTRADE’s U.S.-Friendly Canadian dollar registered accounts on a single trading day, the foreign currency component will be transacted at the single, benchmark, mid-market rate used by Scotia Capital Inc. to price its holdings of U.S./Canadian dollar currencies at the end of that trading day (SCI Rate). The trade of U.S. securities will continue to settle in Canadian dollars but Scotia iTRADE will not apply its retail markup or “spread” over and above the SCI Rate to the foreign currency component of the trade. Only trades in U.S. securities in the U.S.-Friendly RRSP account will be given this preferential foreign exchange rate. Cash transactions in the account involving the conversion to Canadian dollars of U.S. dollars deposited into these accounts (including U.S. dollar denominated dividends and interest) will be subject to the applicable retail foreign exchange spread charged by Scotia iTRADE at that time.
** A quarterly fee of $30 (plus applicable taxes) per calendar quarter per registered account will be applied for this account service, regardless of the account balance and trading activity. This fee will be charged at the beginning of each quarter to each registered account that was enrolled in this service at any time during the previous quarter.
December 18th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Rol Lew
AMZN popped today – Resulted from a bull flag I do believe.
hoping for more; what do you think?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p06761887770
December 18th, 2012 at 5:28 pm
http://charts.equityclock.com/amazon-com-inc-nasdaqamzn-seasonal-chart
CJ – careful with that, ok.
AMZN is supposed to be flat in dec-jan-feb
Followed by a moonshot in March.
If I held this, I would be getting antsy 5 days ago.
& today for sure, big green candle today not withstanding.
Maybe it backed off today due to the resistance ~ 260 in Sept & Oct?
So how about at least taking something off?
December 18th, 2012 at 5:38 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p04032819342
AMZN
Always decisions that test your beliefs…..
If you believe in breakouts & mobile shopping & bricks & mortar is dead,
& Santa Claus rallies & the consumer is back, then back up the truck
& load it up to the rafters.
If you believe in support & resistance & mean-reversion & the child getting
too far away from the mother & the dog & the leash, then be careful.
I you do not know what to believe, then look for the middle ground.
December 18th, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Rol Lew #14/15
Thank you! I am “antsy” – the only thing GREEN in all portfolios and I only hold 6 shares LOL!
I am here from opening to about 3pm tomorrow, so will keep an eye on it; American Bull still calls for a HOLD; The Wm%R shows a negative trend, but all the other indicators are upward and not oversold. 4ma just crossed 9ma; 18ma crossed above 50ma; weekly long term chart also looks positive. It is close but not right at the top of the bollinger bands…………..I’m hanging in
December 18th, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Freddebuoy:
#12 – Thanks for the confirmation. I was scared by the ‘/month’, since I got the US Friendly thing for my register accounts not long ago. Thought I mis-read the condition. Hew….
December 18th, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Bought a little AC/B.to today for a quick trade.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1209082,6&cmd=show&disp=e
December 18th, 2012 at 7:52 pm
BAC-NYSE
Now I talked about this one several times over the past year. It was a buy at 5…. and at 6,7 & 8. I added at all these prices.
I also said that once it broke ten, it would move higher and probably not return below ten on the downside. The reason for this is that many Funds are prohibited by their respective mandates to own any stock below 10. Once a well know stock breaks out from 10, buyers come in and support it. When BAC broke 10 a little while ago to the upside, it did so on significant volume… as expected.
This one is a great long term hold… for those with patience. Over the next 5 years, one can expect a 5 bagger, maybe more. One must remember that this was a 5% yielder for many years, and once health comes back to the sector, it will return as a high yielder.
In addition, this is more than the company it used to be before 2008, it now has Country Wide Fin and Merryl Lynch, 2 well know cachet names in their respective businesses.
Yes there are problems, however they are working through them and moving forward, as they should. This is a huge worldwide bank…. and I expect spectacular growth as the world economy recovers over time.
I do own it in my RRSP as a long term hold.
But again, 5% max for any position…. this is abou4% for me right now.
December 18th, 2012 at 9:28 pm
NTR
Further to Tawny and Teresa re: guns in america
Never been much of a Peirce Morgan (CNN) fan but I would encourage anyone to watch a just happened debate between him and a “Gun Assoc. of America” representive. Truly spectacular and unlike anything you would usually see on prime T.V. You have to cut through them calling each other “idiots”, but it really brings home the incredible divergence of views. I’m sure the debate is posted somewhere if you weren’t watching. I understand Peirce is being cancelled. After this, I say, too bad.
December 18th, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Hi RolLew,
You said “patience & timing “. So true for puts on uvxy/tza – now they are paying off.
Congratulations. Well, I will turn the page for next time & leave details out.
Today I was mostly in the car & my news source (680) said Gold was down but heard on cboe GLD calls 165,167 & 170 bought for jan. Does you analysis show GLD & gold stocks go up in Jan?? My notes show me gold stocks go down in jan & up in feb.
Will check your answe tomorrow.TIA
December 18th, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Neil
It gives me great pleasure to know that I’m not the only one to get mixed up on who said what. LOL. It was ana and myself. I sent a note last night to DD and confused here with Deb I think. Anyway I missed the show.. Maybe catch it later. Thanks
December 18th, 2012 at 10:22 pm
Rol Lew
Could you post that info again about trading Tna and TZA. I would appreciate that. I am in Tna now.
December 18th, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Kam
Yes read your information on xiv etc.. Glad you are doing well with that.. It’s not for me right now.
I am losing on my overweight on silver… Merde. I really feel there is manipulation going on with this.
December 18th, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Teresa
Thanks for UUu and kind of you to post other purchases.. Nice toshare.
December 18th, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Tawny
So sorry, and I guess especially to Teresa as it was indeed Ana not Teresa that your were talking with.
BTW, you may have asked of me (or was it Teresa or Ana?) as to whether I was in to UYM – anyway, not me. There seem to be a few other Neil’s on the board. This is getting way to confusing.
December 18th, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Neil,
I have a crappy memory.. But I know people on this Site will forgive some confusion. Lol
December 18th, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Rol lew,
This Amazon thing.i was looking for a michael kors watch for my daughter. MK5263. I saw that in metrotown mall store of Kors for $300. It is on kors site for $250(back order). Amazon.com–$380! not a misprint. amazon.ca-375.That is a con job. If buyers go see things in stores and buy online then they also see online and buy in stores too! Stores are going nowhere. Yes if I am buying some Apple charger for $2 then I order on amazon otherwise I am not going to order TV online and then ship it back if I don’t like it. I go to future shop/bestbuy to buy those and save money with different Gangnam style. Both beat each others price by 10% more discount.
Few years back I bought harman kardon receiver. I checked both futureshop/bestbuy site. On best buy it was for $598 and on futureshop for $899(same company $300 diff.) So I go to futureshop and showed him the site and guy priced match it+10% more difference discount (899-599=300 so $30 more discount. long story short it cost me $568.So anytime I buy something from them I just check price difference and go tothe more expensive one to get even more discount. everyone should do that. Another tip from kam,lol
December 18th, 2012 at 11:50 pm
Kam
Good share. You are big spender in my humble wallet books. Lucky daughter!
December 19th, 2012 at 12:24 am
Hi Tawny,
.When fed had meeting last week and gold silver went up and turned out be bull trap. Remember that Nigam Arora report guy I talked with GMSA this summer, he tweeted about going shorts silver soon after fed announcement I thought he is screwed but he turned out to be right. I called him the only Indian who don’t like gold.Now I follow him on twitter and he make some sense.
. So maybe now xiv will buy that watch. It a beautiful watch.
Tough trade on silver
Re-big spender, No I haven’t bought it yet.And it is not for Christmas, it is actually a grad present which is 6 months late and counting,haha. She actually gave up on me to buy her something.
well,I packed rest of the xiv(500) at market close at 20.08. Might go higher still but I got $1200($500 if sold yesterday) on the other half of position which I couldn’t sell yesterday due to Cibc frozen site,Thanks cibc
http://www.michaelkors.com/p/Michael-Kors-Michael-Kors-Glitz-Chronograph-Watch-mk5263/prod8400010___/?eItemId=prod8400010&cmCat=search&searchType=MAIN&icid=&rte=%252Fsearch.jhtml%253FN%253D0%2526Ntt%253Dmk5263%2526_requestid%253D95912