Tech Talk for Thursday January 3rd 2013

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(Editor’s Note: Jon Vialoux will appear on Market Call on BNN tomorrow at 1:30 PM EST)

 

Pre-opening Comments for Thursday January 3rd

U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 1 point in pre-opening trade.

Index futures improved slightly following release of economic data. Consensus for the December ADP private employment report was 130,000 versus a revised 148,000. Actual was 215,000. Consensus for weekly initial jobless claims was 363,000 versus a revised 362,000. Actual was 372,000.

Stiffel Nicolaus upgraded Toll Brothers and DR Horton from Sell to Hold.

Cisco Systems added $0.25 to $20.59 after RBC Capital upgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Outperform. Target is $24.

JMP Securities upgraded JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America from Under Perform to Market Perform.

Citigroup (C $41.25) is expected to open higher after Sterne Agee upgraded the stock to Buy.

 

Technical Watch

Cisco Systems, Inc (NASDAQ:CSCO) – $20.59 gained 1.2% after RBC upgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Outperform. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since late October. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.

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Interesting Charts

Lots of positive technical action:

· Several equity indices and their related ETFs broke to all-time highs yesterday including the Russell 2000, S&P Consumer Discretionary and S&P Industrials.

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· Nice breakout by the TSX Composite Index to a 10 month high!

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· The Materials sector and its related subsectors lead the advance on both sides of the border with breakouts above resistance levels.

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· The Home Builders ETF broke to a six year high.

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· Equity markets outside of North America also reached 18 month highs

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· The Technology sector and its subsectors also were leaders

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On the downside, natural gas was the leader.

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Weekly Select Sector SPDRs Review

Technology

· Intermediate trend is up

· Units moved above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages yesterday

· Short term momentum indicators are neutral

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from neutral to positive

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Materials

· Intermediate trend is up. Units broke to a 17 month high yesterday

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive

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Consumer Discretionary

· Intermediate trend is up. Broke to an all-time high yesterday

· Remains above its 50 and 200 day moving average and moved above its 20 day moving average yesterday.

· Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is neutral with negative possibilities

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Industrials

· Intermediate trend is up. Broke to an all-time high yesterday

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Short term momentum indicators are slightly overbought

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive

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Financials

· Intermediate trend is up. Broke to a four year high yesterday

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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Energy

· Intermediate trend is neutral, but will turn up on a break above $73.02

· Units recently moved above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

· Short term momentum indicators are neutral

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is neutral, but showing early signs of turning positive.

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Consumer Staples

· Intermediate trend is neutral

· Moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages yesterday

· Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative

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Health Care

· Intermediate trend is neutral

· Units moved above their 20 and 50 day moving averages yesterday

· Short term momentum indicators are neutral

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative

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Utilities

· Intermediate trend is down, but turns up on a break above $35.67

· Moved above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages yesterday

· Short term momentum indicators are neutral

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

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Editor’s Note: Note that the TSX Composite Index relative to the S&P 500 Index has a history of turning positive in mid-January for strong outperformance until early March. This is the period when Canadian natural resource stocks “shine through”. image

 

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 2nd 2013

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20 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday January 3rd 2013”

  1. Tawny Says:

    Ana

    NTR
    Not surprised that it was you who mentioned Walnut Tincture… I thought it might have been. But, yes, non-effective, IF you do not ingest it! LOL

    Happy New Year Everyone… this is my gift if you wish to take on this mission…(DYDD)
    Re Europe..
    Very low valuations in some countries like Russia, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, etc… you saw that Greece has been moving up. I got these ideas from Swanson. His major revelation this year was The 10 Year Cape.(Cyclically adjusted Price Earnings Ratio) He said it was the best thing he read all year 2012. Explore this link if you are interested. “Global Value: Bldg. Trading Models. August 2012.” That is when Swanson started buying Europe with huge success.

    http://www.cambrianinvestments.com

    BTW, I am also invested in EWZ – Brazil, and EWJ – Japan and hope to buy into China ETF soon. Ana, my aim is to be in these major ETFs with my US$ for the most part and in dividend funds for Canadian. I want to break away from the computer.

  2. Tawny Says:

    Re # 1 Link, oops, try this

    http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2129474

    and then download.

  3. KC Says:

    Tawny,

    Happy New Year!
    If you dont mind me asking, which Canadian Div Funds or ETFs do you recommend or are invested in ?

    Thanks,
    KC

  4. Tawny Says:

    KC

    Happy New Year to you to. I certainly do not consider myself a “go to” person on this blog. But happy to share. Right now I am looking for high yield, oversold stocks coming into season. I like and bought PBN.to and ERF.to. I also own FIE for a nice steady 7+% yield in financials + bonds. So, I am still looking for more opportunity with my Cdn. divies. Seems to me energy is oversold and coming into season.

    Welcome suggestions on this myself.

  5. NRG Says:

    Tawny

    I have bought slowly into two RRSP and invest account 40 div paying stocks, etf’s after reading Canuck’s contributions over the last couple of years. I also try to buy using the 4/9/50 ma method as recommended by Tony. I am waiting for my final 2012 summary from BMO to see how successful I was.

  6. Tawny Says:

    Wow this blog is dead today!

  7. tony Says:

    Tawny

    Xmas holiday. don’t expect much, well if Slava was around Sure it would fire up some conversation.

  8. Teresa Says:

    Bought some ANR and BTU today. Finger crossed.

  9. Tawny Says:

    Teresa

    Did you sell anything? HOlding all the longs you bought recently?
    I get a feeling the market is too frothy and due for a correction.
    BTW, seems lately whatever I sell goes up, what I hold goes down.
    Not too funny :(

  10. Ana Says:

    Teresa,
    Sorry, but I am not sure that it is the “moment” to purchase stocks. I believe we are in the same situation as August 2011, the weekend after the debt ceiling agreement between the President and Congress. I just have a very “negative” feeling about the market for the weekend. Perhaps because I lost a great deal of money during that “moment in time.” Does anyone else feel this way?

  11. Teresa Says:

    Tawny:

    Yes I sold some of my longs yesterday and this morning and bought some new longs :-). Currently, I have ~20% in cash. Got the book ‘Thackray’s 2013….” last night, finished chapters for Jan and Feb. Boy, the retail sector keeps climbing more. It’s not even Jan 21 yet. TJX gapped up with 3%, maybe two many PP read the book last night? hehe… . I am waiting for the silver to turn around and then I can add more positions(SLW.To, SPM.V, SWC).

    Ana:

    Actually, I was worried a bit also. However, the charts really looking attractive and the sector performs very well so far. so bought KOL,ANR and BTU. Will 2013 a year for coal? If the market direction is not very clear, I will put a tight stop. Just don’t want to miss the train(too greedy). So far, it’s hard to say to which direction the market is heading. After big gains on Mon and Wed, a pull back is expected. Next week is very crucial, if the pull backs are gental like today, I think the market will resume going north soon. If the pull backs are big, I probably will sell more.

  12. Brian/ON Says:

    Tawny

    Happy new year to you too!

    You mention EWZ as a brazil ETF. Is this your preferred buy for brazil?

  13. Ana Says:

    Ray – Kitchener

    Are you around? What are you trading these days? Or are you just counting your money! :D

  14. Tawny Says:

    Teresa

    I’m sure Thackeray would be amused to think his book is creating the markets!
    I am very disappointed with silver – I bought into the new buy signal and the metal retreated. I buy the leveraged plays and when they are good to me they are very, very good, and when they are bad, nasty! ha ha. You still have faith in silver for January?

    I sold half my TAN yesterday and it bolted right up today… 10.5% (at least I still hold some) Do you speak some French (merde!)

    I also sold HLF as I am worried that hedge fund guy is going to pull the stock down again… and so today it went up another 12.89% (I thought I was doing very well taking a 20% profit).

    The silver I bought went down 5%. Not going my way.

    At least my Int’l ETFs are satisfying even tho they pulled back a little today. They had been flying and these are my longer holds for sure.

  15. Tawny Says:

    Ana

    Trust you saw my message to you #1 ?? It will be interesting to see if there is a strong pull back or correction in N.America if Europe will be more stable… I am counting on it. Like you, I am a little wary for next week. Might tbe a good idea to raise more cash.

    Brian/ON

    Yes EWZ for Brazil and it was about to have a breakout today until the markets pulled back.

    I heard the reason for the pull back in the U.S. today was fear of jobs report tomorrow… let’s see is that “jobs report” or “no-jobs report.” :)

  16. Teresa Says:

    Tawny:

    I still think silver will take off soon. Once the sign is clear, I will buy some leveraged plays too. Which ones did you have?

    I was thinking about your TAN this morning. That happens sometimes: It pops right after you sell it or tanks right after you buy it. But most important thing is you have made money, so you should feel happy :-).

    As for TAN, I think it can go north much more. I will load some once it consolidate a bit. I added FSLR this morning.

  17. Muntazir Says:

    Hi RolLew,
    Just checking my notes from Dec 27 where you suggested ( I blv to Rick) to buy Feb 15 puts on UVXY for 80 cents. Just checked on TDW & its above $2. CONGRATULATIONS.
    Would appreciate if you keep sharing info like this.Hopefully one day I will act on it.

  18. kam Says:

    Hi Tawny,
    re-15
    I think the market went down when fed released minutes at 11am.I was outside but I heard on twitter that it sounded like the they think QE is not going to keep helping much(to that tune)and $85B bond buying a month will end this year sometime.That won’t be good for gold/silver.
    I bought hgd at end of day today.It is a gamble that the way GDX was trading and specially gold/silver puked after fed minutes,Tomorrow GDX might open low even if the stock market opens flat. GDX also broke its uptrendline from $43.71 low few days ago at close.GDX went up with other stocks last 2 days going thru 200ma yesterday but stopped at 50ma. price action today was very weak and it just kept on going down. It might have sucked in some bulls last two days.I bought on 31 for a quick trade but when I saw it stall at 200ma I just bailed. Unless the gold/silver jump tomorrow morning I might be in green and will sell if I can for profit.

    Like the great Warren Buffet said-”Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”
    I think we found out today that Goldcorp and company was swimming naked last 2 days :)

  19. kam Says:

    cont18
    Tomorrow is employment # too so fingers are crossed.Also I just checked they also kicked Gold/Silver down few more $ below 200ma in Asia trade but it has been climbing back since. Don’t mean much at this time of night but Fed Might have thrown wrench into gold trade with Minutes.Easy for haters to sell gold.So employment #’s might decide what gold does.

  20. christian Says:

    Ana: Re post #46 from Jan 2. To make it less stressful as to which foreign ETF’s to buy, I recommend XIN(Europe/Japan lrge caps), and XEM(emerg mrkts). Both are hedged to CAD and cover pretty well everything outside N.A. The ones Cramer mentioned are in USD so you have currency issues and have to worry which ones to choose. For Latin America XLA would be good, although it’s a light trader.

    Cheers

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