ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Tuesday January 8th
U.S. equity index futures are slightly lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 2 points in pre-opening trade.
Monsanto gained $3.94 to $99.88 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings. The company also raised its fiscal 2013 guidance.
ManuLife (MFC $14.03) is expected to open higher after Bank of America/Merrill upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.
Celgene added $1.27 to $87.00 after RBC Capital and Piper Jaffray upgraded the stock. In addition Stiffel Nicolaus and Wallachbeck raised its target price.
Ilinois Tool (ITW $62.44) is expected to open lower after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Neutral to Underweight.
Boeing fell $1.38 to $74.75 after BB&T downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
CF Industries eased $0.80 to $209.29 after BMO Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform.
Technical Watch
Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ:CELG) – $87.00 added 1.4% after RBC Capital and Piper Jaffray upgraded the stock. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock closed at an all-time high yesterday. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since last June. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/clip_image00112.png "clip_image001[1]")
Interesting Charts
The China trade continues to work.
China related stocks and ETFs continue to advance.
Biotech iShares closed at a new high yesterday, typical of strength at this time of year. Biotech stocks move higher in anticipation of the annual San Francisco Biotech Showcase, the largest biotech conference of the year. The conference this year is from January 7th to January 9th.
Not surprising, the Biotech sector has a history of losing momentum following the conference. Take seasonal profits on news!
Biotech Industry Seasonal Chart
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “U.S. downgrade expected without Grand Bargain in next two months”. Following is a link to the report:
Thackray’s 2013 Investment Guide
Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s Guide is here. Order through www.alphamountain.com , Amazon, Chapters or Books on Business.
Keith Richards’ Blog
I’ve covered some technically attractive sectors lately, including 4 International markets and 2 commodities that look set for bullish action. Visit www.smartbounce.ca for more details.
BTW—I was on BNN MarketCall Tonight last Friday. Here’s the clip: http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip837585
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 7th 2013
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: CELG
January 8th, 2013 at 8:45 am
Its weird that your KOL chart shows the high at 25.89 in october, but the actual high is 26.33. Currently the stock is right on resistance but your chart shows that it broke out. Can you clarify.
Thanks
January 8th, 2013 at 9:51 am
Hi Jordan,
KOL went ex-dividend of 43 cents on December 24th, which results in an adjustment of prices in order to put valuation on an equal footing before and after the distribution.
January 8th, 2013 at 10:05 am
Hi Tech Talk ,
The dividends in Germany DAX 30 are added to the index pushing it higher .
Do you know what happen with dividends from the companies part of S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index ?
The index s&p 500 that we now it is an index Total Return or is just an index who ignores the dividends ?
Thanks
January 8th, 2013 at 11:00 am
Could anyone give their opinion on the chart of REED please? Thanks.
January 8th, 2013 at 1:20 pm
Roy
It looks like reed is halted, maybe while it is being
transferred from nasdaq to nyse
It looks like reed has been making lower highs for 2 mths now.
It looks like reed has been making lower lows for 2 mths now.
Were you looking to go long or short?
Trend traders would probably see reed as a short right here.
Counter-trend traders would probably see it as a long right here.
I seriously doubt that anyone (except probably insiders) really
“knows” where reed will be in 30 days.
January 8th, 2013 at 1:44 pm
thank kam for the info and the lesson was learned [the hard way].I also ran a stoploss[best advice] better to make some money then lose it.
thanks you guys are all great and I’m learning a lot from this site.
keep up the good work.
January 8th, 2013 at 3:30 pm
Teresa
Wow, I am having a pretty good market day! Jumping up … yeah! need this boost.
UUU up 8%, ONVO up almost 12% (how did you know it would pop up more today? I am sure this stock soaring because of the big show mentioned in TT above.
I bot back some HLF at $37.50 — it looks like it could easily get back to the $50. level if not more… Hedge fund guy brought it down without solid reason.
So far my STB for divies is good and my breakout stock CTT is looking good too. Saw yesterday that you have a few new ones – I am almost fully invested.
Saving a few $ for a buy into FTI and a little more EWJ – could you or anyone let me know when it is at a new entry price?
Thanks and I hope all is going well for you too.
January 8th, 2013 at 3:34 pm
Roy, REED has an interesting chart so I hope you don’t mind me taking a stab at an analysis.
If you currently own it, I don’t think you need to panic – at least not yet. The last two days including today have been down just slightly (while typing this, today’s price started back up) but with unconvincing volumes. The price broke out above its downtrend on January 4th. Right now, its stalling at resistance (fairly strong) at $6.50 and if it can break through, your next resistance will be $7.22 with an upside potential of $8.82 reached in mid October. Your supports are $6.00 (the 18 dMA is $6.04), $5.50 and $5.00. All these are approximate.
MACD is gathering strength, not quite across the 0 line but closing in on it and OBV is growing. RSI has shown a strong growth trend but still a long way from overbought. It is flattening slightly which may be a caution but certainly not a sell signal. Full Stochastics is well into overbought territory but that can remain so for long periods of time. And finally, it leads the S&P500.
If you don’t own it, you might want to wait til it breaks convincingly above $6.50.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=REED&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p41328427107&a=288424229
January 8th, 2013 at 3:34 pm
Hello Rol – Thanks for the TA . Was planning on going long, but will hold off for now.
January 8th, 2013 at 3:37 pm
Thanks Freddie – Much appreciated.
January 8th, 2013 at 3:41 pm
Hi all,
Re gold stocks
here is one of the reason that investing in gold stocks now a days is a loser game. Even Don,Jon said that often on BNN.Goldcorp changed it reporting on costs of producing an ounce of gold.And it is what WGC is saying. In north of $1000 and increasing.remember goldcorp is one of the lowest cost producer!
“Goldcorp adopts ‘all-in’ cost metric
TIM KILADZE
Tuesday, January 08, 2013
At a time when gold investors have an eagle eye on production costs, Goldcorp is adopting a new cost model, dubbed the ‘all-in’ cost, that accounts for a number of different expenses that are excluded from the simple cash cost model.
Currently, cash costs add up the resources required to produce an ounce of gold at this moment (labour, energy, etc.). The new ‘all-in’ cost, includes the likes of capital expenditures, corporate general and administrative expenses and exploration expenses to account for other costs that also affect cash flows.
The move to adopt this new metric comes after much lobbying from the World Gold Council, which has devoted substantial resources to lobby gold miners to change their ways. The Council spent a decent amount of time at the last Denver Gold Forum to stress the virtues of the all-in cost.
Some CEOs are already on board with the new metric. At the Forum last year, Nick Holland, the CEO of Gold Fields Ltd., urged his peers to “stop kidding ourselves” by reporting “cash costs” of mining gold that can hover around $500 an ounce.
So just how much higher will the reported cost per ounce jump? Next year Goldcorp expects all-in sustaining cash costs of $1,000 to $1,100 per ounce, up from the $700-to $750-per ounce on a co-product basis under the old model in 2012.
However, you have to wonder if the miner hopes that reporting under the new model will in some way distract from the underlying cost increases across the industry. By adopting a new model, it will be harder for analysts and investors to compare new, higher costs to the old accounting methods.
That being said, Goldcorp acknowledged in its production update that “cash costs are expected to rise from 2012 levels primarily due to industry-wide cost inflation and the impacts of lower grades and by-product production at Peñasquito.” It also reported its all-in sustaining cash cost for 2012 of $865 per ounce, much lower than the $1,000 to $1,100 per ounce that is expected next year.”
January 8th, 2013 at 5:58 pm
Hi Tawny:
Good for you! Nothing is better than seeing your stocks pop. I knew ONVO is going to pop today. I almost wanted to ask you to add position yesterday but held that thought, just in case if I am wrong and don’s get the blame from you
I am not as lucky as you are today. Most of my picks from yesterday went down
.
- FTI:
* Weekly Chart: Seems a new leg just started. If on the weekly chart, it bounce off from the 50MA, I think you can get into it. But you have to be careful, seems a SHS there on the weekly chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTI&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02271117094&a=288443874&listNum=1
- EWJ: For both weekly and daily charts, it will go down more. I will wait till it drop to the the support line (~9.40) and then re-evaluate the entry point.
Hope make sense.
January 8th, 2013 at 6:53 pm
Teresa
Writing with tablet..so errors happen. Thanks for replying.. Hopefully your picks will go up yet. I don’t think I will add to my two junior new product stocks until they get on a major market and hopefully will not sell too early..
Made error.. Meant fxi china! Nice charts you make- really easy to read. FTI looks nice but I am going mostly Slow now with etfs mostly in major markets. So if you can give me thoughts on china I would be grateful. Thanks
January 8th, 2013 at 8:11 pm
Tony:
Thanks for your explain using SAP, last night. I got the idea. Also, SAP could be a good play for swing. I will add it to my watch list.
January 9th, 2013 at 12:17 am
Roy
Reed broke the downtrend line early January, which is positive, but volume is low so it’s like no one really cares. I don’t see much long upside here. I suspect it will come back to the 6.25 area then head up again (though I know nothing of this stock so there could be some news which would affect things) but barring news it’s got major resistance from the double top around 7.00 and some smaller resistance ahead of that. Without knowing anything about the stock, just from the chart, I’d say there are probably better places to be.
January 9th, 2013 at 12:30 am
Roy
Sorry, just to follow up. I’m kind of old school on these things. Identifying a break of the downtrend line (as with Reed) is positive and so good on you for picking this one out, however, again, being old school, I feel that the break has to be accompanied by increased volume to validate it. Stocks that don’t trade a lot of volume are very tricky and can show a lot of false breakouts for a number of reasons. Just saying be carefull with some of these.
January 9th, 2013 at 12:54 am
Teresa
Re:FTI and EWJ
FTI – 50/50 on whether it head and shoulders down or kicks off 50 higher.
EWJ – gap filling brings it back to around 9.37.
You guys are way to adventurous for me.
Have fun.
Neil