ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Friday January 18th
U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 1 point in pre-opening trade.
Asian markets surged on news that China’s GDP grew at a 7.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, slightly higher than consensus at 7.8% and better than 7.4% in the third quarter. In addition December Industrial Output grew at a 10.3% rate and retail sales increased 15.2%. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.4%. The Nikkei Average jumped 3.0%
Fourth quarter earnings reports continue to pour in. Companies that reported overnight included General Electric, Morgan Stanley, Intel, SunTrust and Schlumberger.
Caterpillar gained $0.82 to $96.52 after Piper Jaffray upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight. Target was raised from $85 to $113.
Amazon.com added $2.16 to $272.64 after Pacific Crest upgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Outperform.
Research in Motion added $0.94 to $15.85 after Jefferies upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
Netflix gained $2.70 to $100.40 after Janney upgraded the stock to Buy.
CSX (CSX $20.86) is expected to open lower after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral.
Technical Watch
Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE:SLB) – $73.90 added 0.7% after reporting slightly better than consensus fourth quarter results. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend recently turned up on a break above $73.51. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the end of December. Seasonal influences turned positive this week. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices for a seasonal trade lasting until the end of April.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/clip_image001110.png "clip_image001[1]")
Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image364.png "clip_image002[1]")
Interesting Charts
Technicals on gold are improving. Gold briefly moved above$1,695.40. Last week, gold moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index shows early signs of turning positive. Seasonal influences for gold are positive in January and February, but silver, platinum and palladium have a history of outperforming gold in these months.
Crude oil prices are moving higher on colder weather than last year, greater economic demand (particularly China) and concerns about growing political instability in the Middle East (particularly Algeria and Iran). Crude oil has an intermediate uptrend, trades above is 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages and is outperforming the S&P 500 Index. Seasonal influences usually bottom at this time of year and accelerated after mid-February.
Crude Oil Futures (CL) Seasonal Chart
Natural gas also has shown surprising strength recently mainly due to colder North American weather relative to the same period last year. Nice break above resistance yesterday at $3.50.
Energy stocks on both sides of the border are responding to higher crude oil and natural gas prices. The U.S. oil and gas exploration & production ETF briefly broke to a 5 month high on a move above $57.14. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is accelerating.
Ditto for the Energy SPDR!
The U.S. Homebuilders ETF responded strongly to higher than consensus December housing starts. The ETF closed at a 5 year high. Favourable seasonal influences remain positive until the first week in February.
Updates on Sector Seasonal Trades
Seasonal trades preferably have a score of 3 based on:
· At least a short term uptrend
· Trades above its 20 day moving average
· Outperform the S&P 500 (TSX Composite for Canadian sectors)
All three technical indicators are positive for WOOD (i.e. Technical score is 3). End of seasonal strength period is mid-February and (if extended) the first week in April.
Technical score has changed from 3 to 0 during the past few days. Period of seasonal strength ending mid-February has ended early this year.
Early warning signs on the Base Metals sector. Technical score has fallen from 3 to 1 after the Index moved below short term support and started to underperform the S&P 500. The sector has a history of underperformance between now and mid-February.
Technical score for Industrial SPDR remains 3. All time high close yesterday. Seasonal influences are positive until early May.
Technical score for Consumer Discretionary is 3. All time close high yesterday. Seasonal influences are positive until mid-April.
Technical score is 3. Favourable seasonal influences expired at the end of the first week in January. Hold until technical score starts to decline
Technical score is 2. Seasonal influences peak just after the Consumer Electronics Show. Strength relative to the S&P 500 already has turned negative. Take appropriate action.
Technical score returned to 3 recently. Seasonal influences are positive until the first week in March.
Technical score is 3, but strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is showing early signs of underperformance. Seasonal influences briefly are negative between mid- January and mid- Feb.
Technical score is 3. Period of seasonal strength end in the first week in February
Technical score is 2 after a move yesterday above its 20 day moving average. Rough start for its period of seasonal strength from early January to at least May!
Technical score turned to 3 this week. Period of seasonal strength from January 1st to the first week in March is off to a good start.
Ditto for Platinum! Technical score is 3
Ditto for Palladium. Technical score is 3
Period of seasonal strength is from January 18th to the first week in May with a possible extension to June 15th. Technical score is 2/3 (Strength relative to the TSX is not clear)
Period of seasonal strength is from January 30th to the end of April. Technical score is 3
Period of seasonal strength is from January 15th to May 9th. Technical score is 3
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Following is an example:
Gold Futures (GC) Seasonal Chart
Eric Wheatley’s Options Column
Hello all,
I got a few emails after last week’s commentary asking about what had happened on December 31st in the options markets. Besides it always being fun to get emails, I found that I needed to address something about the exotic mystique of options and how they are traded.
Theoretical constructs are great. Some weird Dane came up with a probabilistic view of quantum-level physics which, to all right-thinking laypeople, should have landed him in an asylum or jail on psychotropic drug charges. As it turns out, a few years later, Niels Bohr was proven right in the laboratory, and particles do dance around based upon spooky action at a distance. The problem with theoretical constructs however is that they are only as good as the models upon which they are built. Also, if there is greater entropy in a system, models become increasingly less reliable.
Nate Silver, the media darling statistician who uncannily predicted the last two American presidential elections to quasi-perfection, boldly predicted that the New York Jets would defeat the Seattle Seahawks on November 11th. Needless to say for any semi-conscious football fan, the Jets got clobbered (and writing that makes me giddy). In this example, I don’t fault Mr. Silver – he IS a remarkable prognosticator and deserves immense respect for his work on signals and noise – the problem simply is that there is less predictive data (signals) and more entropy (noise) on a football field than in a comprehensively measured election.
Why am I going through these examples? Because there is a facedesking belief still held by many that one can “model” the markets. Indeed, a whole industry is beholden to the idea that a particularly astute hedge fund manager can trade based off of a complex computer model and consistently make free money! Of course, there are very good hedge funds which DO generate good returns and can be an interesting addition to some portfolios. That said, no credible manager will ever trust a model under all market circumstances. Some less-than-credible people do, and they may make money for a while, but faith is an unsuitable replacement for rational decision-making.
Beyond exotic hedge fund strategies which bedazzle the credulous, options seem to have a weird aura which attracts those who wish to believe in magic.
On December 31st, the markets went wacky. Options prices spiked because options are priced in terms of uncertainty (mathematically defined as volatility). I’ve known a WHOLE heck of a lot of very knowledgeable finance people who sincerely believe that options are simply priced with models. Better models, this logic holds, will lead to better traders and more money coming in to geeky PhDs offhandedly and somewhat derisively titled “quants” by the jocks on the trading desk. The reality is that, no matter how good your model may be, it simply measures that which is already known and spits out completely arcane data.
Options prices are set in the market by the same animal spirits that regulate all securities prices. If a call is priced at $2.00 through transparent buying and selling by unfettered market participants, that is its price. The only thing that models do is take this price, put it through a mathematical blender with some other data-ingredients and, voilà, you distill it down to its essence: the volatility implied in the call’s price and all of the (Greek) numbers which tells an options trader where his or her risks lie and how to hedge them off.
The spike in options prices weren’t an anomaly in the same way that obnoxious moves in stock prices are; they reflected market sentiment at a time of great uncertainty. If a stock’s price crashes, one can credibly state that the stock either was or is mispriced (or both). Options are traded off of stocks and simply reflect sentiment. In our case, I took that panicky-type sentiment and took advantage of it. Now that volatilities have crashed back to their earlier Lilliputian levels, I think we can confidently say that it was a good decision.
*****************
In this week’s French-language blog: illegal cigarettes, illegal downloads and perfectly legal tax evasion.
Cheers!
Éric Wheatley, MBA, CIM
Associate Portfolio Manager, J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc.
eric@jchood.com
514.604.2829; 1.855.348.2829
Twitter: @jchood_eric_en
Blogue en français : gbsfinancier.blogspot.ca
*****************
Little known fact about John Charles Hood #57
John Charles Hood appreciates models on a whole deeper level than I.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 17th 2013
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: SLB
January 18th, 2013 at 3:31 am
FF et al.
Sorry not to reply earlier. Back on Europe time.
I see 32 as strong support for JO. Looking at 5 yr. chart, support was in 32-35 range. I bought my first batch at 32.04. Bought more when it retraced to around 34 on Jan. 15. FF, you are right that it is always good to confirm a reversal, but another strategy is to buy at the lower end of support and have your stop very close to it. That way, you don’t get whipsawed out of position when it bounces around support. So, I draw my line in the sand at 32. There are good reasons to think it won’t go back below that deeply oversold level but, if proven wrong, I’ll happily sell with very little loss. Give me a double double!
IRE – bought this one a couple weeks ago. What a honey. Cramer is ‘mad’ about it which may account for high volumes. Looks like this one has legs. Tony, why are you still bearish on Europe? All the bad news is already baked in. I agree that the economies still have a long way to go but sticking with the blue chips in these regions gets you a lot of bang for your buck. Last year was very good for European stocks, etfs and funds. Europe still way undervalued compared to N. American equities.
January 18th, 2013 at 3:32 am
I am presently earning euros here in Austria and have been watching the euro rise from the ashes for several months (about 1.20/CND to 1.30 CDN). I plan to hold on to them during my three years here as I expect them to come back to old levels (1.50-1.60/CDN).
A little background on the rise of the euro:
http://www.xe.com/news/2013/01/17/3162193.htm?c=3&t=
January 18th, 2013 at 3:33 am
The great thing about the net is you can always find someone who agrees with you. lol. Here is a case for being cautiously optimistic about coffee:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1098511-commodity-chart-of-the-day-coffee
January 18th, 2013 at 3:43 am
Correction: first bought JO at 32.25. Close below 32 would be a sell.
January 18th, 2013 at 7:29 am
David,
While looking at your last night’s ref. to Matthew Bradbard’s SA article on coffee, I found another one of his on gold = GLD.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1112981-commodity-chart-of-the-day-gold.
” I have advised clients to gain bullish exposure in futures and options, and be willing to add to the trade on the way up as the market proves you correct.”
Seems like he likes to call bottoms, before they
are formed. OK that works too. Just keep averaging
UP. But not all of us would do that. What if it
keeps going DOWN?
January 18th, 2013 at 8:25 am
Hello,
I am trading and following your technical and comments too, performing better. I went to option seminar in Toronto ( Montreal Exch) but not understand or difficult for me. Now i am thinking should try again to learn, only that can help me in my trading, do u suggest me or your readers can guide me how to start? This should be like kindergarden student,start from very basic and how to follow it.
Thanks
January 18th, 2013 at 8:55 am
Teresa
Thank you very much for your charts and views last night. My, my some of you younger ones are up so late… I am too pooped to pop and cannot be on the computer late at night as the blue light keeps me awake at night. After a long day at the computer (too much time) I got on the treadmill, showered, prepared and ate a yummy gourmet dinner, watched a little TV and, what a long tiring day for a lady of a certain age! ha ha
Really appreciate your help, among others, Teresa, saving your charts.
January 18th, 2013 at 8:58 am
Kam
Regarding your comments on yield of XMM – yes, I saw other sites displaying a low yield. Please have a look at this site from iShares who offer XMM – see distribution information. Perhaps this warrants a direct call to iShares if I am to invest in this product.
http://ca.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/XMM.htm
January 18th, 2013 at 9:00 am
Could anyone give me picks for oil and silver stocks? TIA
January 18th, 2013 at 9:03 am
Kam,
Re #8, I have sent iShares an e-mail questioning the yield on XMM and will advise.
Teresa,
Re posts with links on this site… posting more than one link results in moderation. Best to post only one at a time.. I occasionally forget as I did yesterday. Just to let you know
January 18th, 2013 at 9:13 am
Muntazir#31(from yesterday), Roy #9, etc.
SU.to (Suncor) has formed a large Symmetrical Triangle that is nearing breakout (maybe even later today). There is positive divergence on the RSI, MACD, and Accum/Distrib line. Relative strength to the S&P 500 has turned positive. The company has a relatively low valuation at 11x P/E. From the EquityClock.com data there is a period of seasonal strength from ~Jan 21st until early May.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49701339939&a=289624354
FF
January 18th, 2013 at 9:19 am
David,
Glad you are supportive of Europe.
Tony and others,
Regarding macro economics. I was so fearful after 2008 and listened to all the negativity and as you know I followed Zerohedge which reports all the negativity big time! The negative macro economics may be truth but the end result was for me to miss out on great returns. The U.S. markets rose and my portfolios missed out.
I started paying attention to a theme that Whiteside displayed on his daily reports…
DANGER, NEVER ASK WHY! Also, he ends each report with his slogan: PRICE IS TRUTH.
I stopped watching Zerohedge, I now pay attention to macro economics in a different light and try to block out the negativity. Also, I am trying to focus on the market as the leading indicator that it is. My returns have improved immensely!
Canuck
My hat is off to you as you had it right all along!
January 18th, 2013 at 9:22 am
David
I see your support level on JO and have added them below to my 5-year chart. I agree, you got in at a very low risk entry point.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JO&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p39670714108&a=289609189
FF
January 18th, 2013 at 9:27 am
Hi Roy.
Re #9, I’ll comment on the silver stocks. Silver Wheaton is the largest and pays a dividend. They continue to provide record results that seem to be below expectations (go figure). First Majestic has lagged, so may be due for a bigger bounce for the buck (or doubloon as the case may be!). I also look at Fortuna, which had some recent and decent results but is more of a speculative play.
January 18th, 2013 at 9:31 am
Hi RolLew
I was looking at rim-tsx options & 16 call jan 19 was a penny & 15 was 10 cents. I avoided 16 bcs of transaction costs on TDW, leaned towards 15 But did not blv it would go over 15 in 1 day & now You know the rest.
BTW left you some posts yesterday
January 18th, 2013 at 9:45 am
Rol Lew,
Re #5. Agreed, calling bottoms is tricky, but I like having very short stops to minimize losses. With JO, I would dump shares if it falls below 32. For now, it seems to be gathering momentum with rising volume.
January 18th, 2013 at 9:45 am
Muntazir,
I want to hang on to my March VXX puts, because I think that VXX will be lower in March than today.
But it will not go there directly down. The debt ceiling cliff could/will cause VXX to go up. Not good for me. But the VIX will go up more, % wise. So I should have a few OTM calls, just in case. OTM & cheap. For the fiscal cliff week, VXX went up (only) 29%. (That was some heat). But the VIX went up 39%.
(More heat if you were on the wrong side).
Then they both collapsed, and are still collapsing.
The debt ceiling cliff is at the end of Feb.
I will get rid of the VIX calls on that spike up.
The best laid plans of mice & men….
Credit Spreads. I do way, way, otm ones all the time.
To me put credit spreads ar “safer”. But either way,
this strategy is like picking up nickles & dimes on
the train track, while the express is way, way, down
the track. Yes – it works, but one day you will get
killed. But then again, life is a terminal disease.
No matter what you do, you are done for
Gold & Silver stocks, Yes – they are hard to judge
right now. Some have turned, but many more have not.
Be that as it may, I still went and bought SLV atm
march calls this week. But since I am doubtful,
I will not be staying here very long, either way.
Cdn Oils – Because of the discounted price that
Cdn producers are getting, I do not like any of them,
I heard as low as $50 a barrell. Even many many USA oilers are in pain. Some of them broke out on Jan 15th, but is this is another 2-week wonder?
Cdn Gas – Still too much gas all over nth america.
Oil Services. I like just the pipelines & processors. I have a little bit of pembina, enbridge, keyera, altagas. The Don spoke about the drillers this week, but, if the producers are not making lots of money, the drillers aren’t either.
CCO & RIMM
Could be those calls were special situations,
. Uranium spot prices
(a.k.a just lucky shots
have been increasing, & there has been a couple take-outs to goose the uraniums. As for the RIMMer, who knows, it could still fail. The speculators & shorts
buy-backs took it up.
I guess we cannot depend too much right now on oil e&p’s and gold/silvers. Need to look elsewhere.
For example home builders, refiners, usa banks (bmo has a NEW cdn hedged etf = zub, that might be worth
looking in to, woods (still?), solars?
Call buying is really high risk & can be used only with maybe 10% of your money. So it is not the main
strategy to use.
January 18th, 2013 at 9:48 am
Yep – Muntazir, you need an economical broker to trade
options. The cdns are bandits, plain & simple.
January 18th, 2013 at 9:57 am
Michael
Nice to see you here. Are you heading to Arizona, or are you actually there now. You have done well on your real estate purchase. I have some interest in purchasing there but would not be until summer. Could you tell me the best and safest areas to be in, please. I am interested in a 2 bedrm, 2 bthrm condo – not a golf resort. If you have time I would appreciate hearing form you on this.
January 18th, 2013 at 10:08 am
FF,
Re: #15. Nice chart. It looks like JO will have to push thru resistance (old support) at 36 to confirm uptrend.
January 18th, 2013 at 10:09 am
Kam
My reply from iShares regarding my inquiry of the correctness of distribution for XMM :
Thank you for your email. This is correct. However, the distribution yield can be misleading as it is based on the last distribution annualized. This means that if the last distribution was unusually large then it will skew this number to the upside.
January 18th, 2013 at 10:10 am
SP – Re # 6 – options trading.
I do not want to say that it is very hard to learn.
But it does take some time. With stock trading, if you are wrong initially, you can often just sit there & wait to be right. But with options trading, many many times, there is no time left. So my advice to you is,
do not even think of doing it, unless you have figured
out a way to get time on your side. Besides, you can
make lost of money just trading stocks. And besides time, options have other pitfalls too, which are often magnified by (no) time. But if you insist, go get a little book on the basics. If you see lots of math
formulas in it, do not buy that one. If the chapters
are each 12 -14 pages long, that is the one. There are
a few like that. I like the book idea, because you can
read it over & over, until you will see, there is really nothing hard about it. Also, go & open a free
mock account at optionmonster & place a few simple trades, bearing in mind, that you can realistically
test this out only with real cash. Nothing else really counts. You have to do it, or stand next to someone who is doing it with real cash.
January 18th, 2013 at 10:10 am
Hi All
Does any one know how to get the Bottom chart that DV shows for all stocks?
I am talking about this XLY:$spx.
He shows a comparison of ” strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is showing early signs of underperformance”
I use Free service STOCKCHARTS.COM
Thanks
January 18th, 2013 at 10:18 am
Hi Tawny. I’m up in cold BC. I bought and sold my Phoenix condo within a year. I did well, but am looking to buy another property. Phoenix can be sketchy, and the property taxes and maintenance fees (or HOA fees as they are called) can be higher. Good and safe places would be Scottsdale and Tempe (and I’m sure there are others). Prices are still reasonable.
January 18th, 2013 at 11:05 am
Michael
Thanks! Do you know anything about the tax situation for Canadians buying in Arizona. (question mark not working – fix later. Accountant told me simply to buy under $100,000 as do not have to report in Canada. Comments most welcome.
January 18th, 2013 at 11:08 am
Small Cap help
My ONVO stock has doubled for me – now trading around $4.60+. If this stock gets on to a major exchange – NASDAQ likely – it could go to $10. Emphasize COULD. I wanted to buy more when it was $1.00 less. My thinking is to invest half of my gains back in to the stock. Anyone have any ideas how to approach this…. tis the season, as Don would say.
January 18th, 2013 at 11:15 am
Re #26
Forget the question as I decided to go for it. I do not consider this to be greed, but a good investment based on the progress and outrageous p.e. ratios of 2 other 3D companies. Like DDD and SSYS…. they all had an original start up.
January 18th, 2013 at 11:36 am
hi Tawny,
re-xmm yield. I-shares emailed you complete BS nothing elseand their site has misleading info. that XMM started on july24,2012 and if you read in distribution section it says divi. of $0.15671 only and they show it once a year or so.
As I was typing this I went back and checked. You know where it says ‘distribution yield”in “overview”section, click on the “I” next to ‘distribution yield” .A popup shows up with info. That is where they have misleading info and BS when I paid close attention to what it says. It says to the tune of that if current distribution stays same thru year “THEN” yield will be 9.51% means if they pay .1567 every month like last then it will be 9.51%. Unbelievable what these people can advertise(almost) to suck people in. They could only pay 15cents in 6 months how can they pay that every month. Buyer Beware and always good to check history of yield and distri.
As Apple paid one time $10 divi Maybe they should say on their site that we have a div. yield of 24% (10*12=$120/500*100=24%) .Hey, I-shares says that why can’t Apple!
January 18th, 2013 at 11:50 am
Hi Tawny. Tax is not my specialty. The only tax-related item I know is that if you sell a US property under $300,000 to someone who will reside in the property, the IRS will not enforce a withholding tax on your sale.
January 18th, 2013 at 11:51 am
Nirmal ji,
re23
If you go to “Indicators” at bottom ,in drop down you select “price” instead of macd,rsi etc. and in “parameters’ enter XLY:$spx ,that is it. Once you update chart it will show xly performance to $spx. Good thing is that once you have that indicator set and if you check GDX or other stock, It will show GDX or other stock’s performance to $spx.
I am posting a link here and when you open just check at bottom how I did it.
http://tinyurl.com/bdwsesl
January 18th, 2013 at 11:56 am
Kam
You are way more thorough than I am…! good for you!
At any rate, must confess my interest is more in the equity than the distribution.
I just did a 1 year and 3 year comparison of EEMV (this is the index that iShares is offering thru XMM) and EEM and EEMV is the winner. I just got an alert that it has surpassed a 52 week high… so I am pondering a small position for starters.
January 18th, 2013 at 11:58 am
Michael
Ntr RE #29. Thanks for that. You bought and sold a property – any tax consequences you are aware of yet.. Thanks encore.
January 18th, 2013 at 12:00 pm
Thanks Rol Lew,
Appreciate your honest opinion. But I will read a book and for fun open fack account not with real money. I like more trading stocks and it works too.
January 18th, 2013 at 12:26 pm
Tawny, no Canadian tax consequences that I know of, but haven’t gone down that route. Ask me April 30 when I’m doing my taxes!
January 18th, 2013 at 12:27 pm
Kam,
Re #30, I see some smarty pants invented
the UI – Ulcer Index Indicator. Neat.
January 18th, 2013 at 12:34 pm
Muntazir, re #31 yesterday…
Don V., in his BNN interview the other day and repeated above, said that,
Seasonal trades preferably have a score of 3 based on:
· At least a short term uptrend
· Trades above its 20 day moving average
· Outperform the S&P 500 (TSX Composite for Canadian sectors)
On that basis, CNQ rates a 3. An uptrend is in place (1), Trading above the 20 MA – it just went above the 18 MA yesterday (2) and it just popped above the TSX (3).
The consensus is “Hold” but Scotia iTrade has a “Sector outperform” with a 12 month target of $44. For the little it’s worth, I like it for a seasonal trade.
By the way Don, I like your rating system.
January 18th, 2013 at 12:35 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p53573280575&a=289706542
January 18th, 2013 at 12:36 pm
Does anyone know where this technicaL score of 1-3 Timing the market is getting these and would I be able to look at different funds to see there Technical scores? Thank you for your help. Also does anyone know the ETF for Metals-Mining on the TSE
January 18th, 2013 at 12:36 pm
JO traders,
I too have the long term bottom set at $32. I also have a trendline on the recent upswing. The upside target is $36 as that seems to be a resistance and support point of the past. If we can break through that I would say $38 to $39 would be the next level. I am waiting on some consolidation in JO on this recent runup. I think there is some excellent potential here.
January 18th, 2013 at 12:45 pm
Rol lew,
Good post#18 re what to buy.I can only talk about yellow stuff.Gold went from 1660 to 1690+ but Gold stocks are not confirming that and GDX is stuck at 45. either it is building a base are hitting top for now.
Talking heads says very cheap but reality says increasing costs means less money in pocket so this is where they belong.If SPX drops here these dudes will run down even faster then it. Seasonality says that run up in gold stocks might be over soon.Risk reward says more risk to own them than worry about missing a runup. So end result is -Just day trade nugt,dust which i do when I feel like.
$cad is used as a replacement to Toilet paper today so which is helping holders of HGU,G.to,Abx.to etc. while they are up close to 1% they should be barely braking even or down as their big brothers on NYSE are.I read that it fell against $usd due to technical support breach. 0.80 cents breach!
I just bought some HND which is underwater and looklike hold for sometime now.Euro stocks might be a buy but all of them are over 52week highs and have to pull back to get in.Don’t want to be sucked in at the moment so if something happen in Greece, they want to give me feta cheese and olive oil “instead’ of my money back,lol. Patience is the only key to success now and some daytrading xiv ,upro etc.
January 18th, 2013 at 1:07 pm
RIM is on fire. I see this as a classic “buy on the rumour – sell on the news” play; just waiting for the BB10 release on January 31. If so, look for at least a short term drop in price next week at this time.
January 18th, 2013 at 1:15 pm
Tawny
Re: 12
It seems to me that there are only two important points here:
1. You have found a system (and a highly regarded one at that) that you are comfortable with and, more importantly, that works for you. That is more than most of us can say.
2. When you find a security or a sector that is working, it really doesn’t matter what the security is, it could be anything. The point is to stay with the trend and try to make some money. (I myself put a small chart up here a few weeks back showing how some euro/ems had outperformed s&p and tsx).
I was not at all clear in what I was trying to convey and for that I apologize. Whether there is an economy/market connection doesn’t impact either of the two above as long as one is watchful of the risk and volitility that may be associated. But then, one of the wonders of the on-line trading age is that for $10 one can be out in seconds.
January 18th, 2013 at 1:16 pm
#9 Roy
Gibson Energy GEI also pays dividend of 4.3%
Altagas ALA pays div of 4.23%
Keyera KEY pays div of 4.22%
Brookfield Renewable energy BEP.UN pays div of 4.57%
Husky HSE pays a div of 3.86%
And Pipelines
Enbridge Income Fund EIF pays 5.34%
Pembina Pipeline PPL pays 5.55%
Verason VSN pays 8.2%
Transcanada TRP pays 3.59%
I own them all
January 18th, 2013 at 1:30 pm
Tawney #25
US Tax implications
You have to consider whether IRS deams you to be a resident or non-resident alien. In the eyes of the IRS, you will be considered a US resident for tax purposes if you meet the substantial presence test. The importance of this distinction is that resident aliens are taxed in the US from all sources worldwide, while no resident aliens are generally taxed in the US only on income from US sources.
Canadian Implications
If your foreign specified property costs more than $100,000 than you are required to file the Form 1135 Foreign income verification statement. If you do use your property solely for personal use, you do NOT have to report, if you rent out than you will have to report and also pay taxes as it is an income-producing property.
Rental Income $US
A different ball game, and very specific. You will have to pay $US tax on rental income. Rate varies on how you report.
I own a house in Phoenix
January 18th, 2013 at 1:41 pm
Neil
Thanks for our post – I remember you posted on Europe and I was glad to know that I was wading in it, since then have added. Risk & Volatility. Yes. I was just thinking yesterday that the markets feel a great deal more stable now… The see – saw action at the moment appears to be in the past for the moment at any rate.
January 18th, 2013 at 1:41 pm
Re #36 – 37…thanks Freddebuoy. I picked up CNQ 2 weeks ago at 29.24, but bought more today to go along for the ride.
January 18th, 2013 at 3:41 pm
Freddebuoy
I’m agreeing with you both on CNQ and Don’s system. To me, these look good for a seasonal trade, esp CNQ. I also have SU and CVE. All have been doing much of nothing for the last few months, SU bobbing from 32 to $34 and CNQ bobbing 28 – $30. Which is I think in keeping with the charts I see for these companies on equity clock.
So I am hoping for the seasonal trade, I think it will happen (hope springs eternal). Biggest problem may be the US govt debt talks / problems still ongoing, which could kick the crap out of the entire market.
January 18th, 2013 at 3:45 pm
Freddebuoy, I also picked up some other seasonal Silver wheaton, and also some ABX. ABX has gone nowhere (except down), but I think i’m ready to gamble, ABX appears to be building a base at a three year low. I beleive Don recommended favourable silver and SLW in particular with his appearance yesterday on BNN. Seasonal trade, I think Don was recommending silver over gold.
January 18th, 2013 at 3:53 pm
To all
A reminder that the U.S. market is closed on Monday.
January 18th, 2013 at 3:58 pm
Remember the dog – Yellow Pages. Now Yellow media. The stock went through a restructuring and for some reason price has been rising on above average volume for a few days now. Do not know why… but I like the action and took a small position.
January 18th, 2013 at 4:17 pm
SP
Options
If you go to the the following link:
http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/2012/01/06/
ctrl+f “options 101″ you will see a comment from me on options,
I repasted it for you but there are some things where I was wrong like open interest I will mark it with a * so and retype it.
Options 101
When you willing to invest in a security but don’t know what to do about a security since the charts seem to have no sense of direction use the options.
Options expire the 3 friday of every month
*Open interest is what you want to look for where 1 contract = 100 shares
1contract = 100 shares.
Open interest is a guide to help you analyze where a stock or etf can be headed if there is daily transaction.
Both calls and puts can be used as support and resistance
When a security ABC is at 50$ and you see most open interest for contracts being traded at 45$ be it on puts or calls this is where you should see your next support (buying opportunity)
When a security is at 50$ and you see most open interest being traded at 55$ either in the puts or calls this is where you should see next resistance.
Puts are considered as an insurance policy protection giving the owner of the policy the right to have the security fixed at a set price.
If going into the w-e you get the urge to buy a security and you see people lining up to buy some puts be sure price will open much lower on monday.
cboe.com
under the quotes and data tab
use the delayed classic quotes
choose all options
m-x.ca
there less volume on the montreal exchange, most security that make the big 10 are the big banks, suncor, tck, cnq, ABX some material stocks and some etfs such as xiu, xfn, xeg
Occasionally you will see some bce, bbd,d, cos and other big securities
And at times they go big on companies we rarely see on the top 10 like daylight this means someone probably knows something is in the making but don’t want to spill the beans
Friday the 7th of october there was a big volume on daylight it had the most volume for the day moday it was bought for 10$
Ok the example on the 50$ stock look at where you have4 the target with the highest volume before volume drops to nil ex if calls 55 have 2000 contracts but the 56$ calls have 100 be sure that once the 55$ target is reached you are not to far from a sell off.
If you want to buy the day prior to earnings look to see on which side of the aisle the price was positive and where it was negative so if you see calls being positive on the calls side ands negative on the put side be sure this is psychological trade to lure investors in going long when they know price will drop.
I saw this back in feb 2012 I was asked by Rachel on goog I told her that the calls were positive and puts were -ve and after reflexion I told myself if I want to make money why would I tell the world to go long when I could go short and make money off of them. and as predicted the earnings weren’t that great and goog lost 20$ in aftermarket.
sept 2012 Rachel asked my call on AAPL and I saw big activity at the 600 and a 700 level dont recall which trade was put on but I told her wee could see a pullback before it moved north I was wrong it moved to 700$ before moving to 600 and the rest is history.
hope this helps out you don’t need to know how to trade options the only thing you really need is to know how to sense the direction of the trade
January 18th, 2013 at 4:25 pm
Hahaha Tawny
I wanted to write about ym.to yesterday but after a long reflection I opted for not to
January 18th, 2013 at 4:41 pm
Rol Lew,
Re-UI,
I like it and use it once awhile.usually when Ulcer is giving you heavy stomach pain,time for stock to rebound but it can’t be used alone.
You still holding that VXX short?The way vxx and xiv are traveling towards each other they might cross next week.That was a slap on the face of $vix,it traded 5 year low now. Too many bulls but Never a signal to buy VXX.If someone has bought vxx to protect portfolio they might have lost more money on it than making on folio today.
VIX dropped like stone when news came out that they want to increase debt ceiling 3 more months so they can vote in house next week to do that as they can pass budget without fear of ceiling within time. That all it takes for Vix to drop as fear was gone or kicked down the road. Just keep holding vxx short don’t think it will go too high as you talked today.Heavy duty contango will just keep giving you money.
Gold stocks as usual did nothing.IF spx sneezes next week as they say it might soon as too many bulls running around, our buddy will get pneumonia
gdx might break that uptrendline from last summer.GDX is down 22.68% comparing to spx from 1 year ago.
) But price is truth.I just day trade it if I can and just waiting for it to drop heavily so that I can load up again or short VXX. Wait is now 3 weeks long.
I tried NUGT today at 9.98 to see if it goes up with market close today but as SPX start taking off at 1215pm pst,GDX started breaking its support of 45.05 where I bought nugt at.Go figure. So sold at 9.97 and put money to XIV which bought a nice weekend dinner for me. Didn’t expect it to go that high but it touched its extreme keltner channel.SO more caution needed(haven’t I said that since I sold it close to $18
Have a good weekend.
January 18th, 2013 at 5:03 pm
Edmonton, #38…
I just spent considerable time answering your question but it somehow didn’t get posted here. Next time I have a lengthy post, I think I’ll compose it elsewhere And cut and paste it here.
Anyway, here is a shortened version:
Don V.’s rating system is simply providing one point to each of the three requirements he lists (copied below): (Seems to me a fourth point could be added when a security is in its sweet spot)
Seasonal trades preferably have a score of 3 based on:
· At least a short term uptrend
· Trades above its 20 day moving average
· Outperform the S&P 500 (TSX Composite for Canadian sectors)
The chart programs all have overlays and indicators that you can add to the chart of the security you chose. But none have an overlay or indicator for seasonality. For that, read Don’s blog and that of Jon Vialoux, EquityClock.com.
There is a plethora of ETFs available for the Metals and Mining sector – check the websites of BMO, Horizons and iShares for a start but there are likely others. I am not aware of a Canadian site that provides a list of all ETFs but there is a US one.
January 18th, 2013 at 5:04 pm
NRG
Thanks for the U.S. Tax information about us Aliens of the far North owning property on their turf. Very much appreciated.
Could you please tell me if you have noticed much smoke from forest fires whilst living in Phoenix. May seem like a crazy question, but I am really allergic to smoke which was the primary reason for leaving otherwise wonderful Kelowna, B.C. My one and only visit to AZ just before Christmas one year, we were greeted by the smell of smoke. It did not last long though.
January 18th, 2013 at 5:08 pm
Tony
Re #52. The ticker is simply Y.to and it ended up 5.8% today. Wonder what goes on. Anyway, I will move my stop loss up.
Did you notice ONVO today – and double the usual high volume. Something is up and my guess is that it is soon going to jump to a big board. I wish I had been mre daring and bought twice as many additional shares today.
January 18th, 2013 at 5:10 pm
Muntazir, SP,
Re options trading, maybe you will find this
video helpful, regarding one sometimes-useful
strategy to trade pinning/expiration.
http://members.simpleroptions.com/options-trading-strategies-for-2013/?inf_contact_key=8ce005a105415d1ca4bced24ed6cfe59753f601db42c8241312374aad0f6ca4f
John Carter, the owner/ producer, says that he will take it down by SATURDAY NITE. (Interestingly, he
said that it took him about EIGHT YEARS to learn
to do (t)his stuff)
BTW it’s now 3:35 adn goog is trading at 703.46 &
AAPL is trading at 499.67. Yep!
Muntazir,
Maybe the way he uses keltners + bollingers + the plain momentum oscillator, maybe that would be a good
way to look for call / put candidates.
I looked at my SLV on a 1-hr chart (in free stockcharts dot com) and it seems that I am late by
5 or 6 days to that trade, as there is one of his long “squeezes” on ~~ Jan 9th. Hopefully I will have time over the weekend to look for a couple “early” ones.
I also checked today the wynn jan wk4 120 $call that
was quoted at 3.75/ 4.20 yesterday.
Today it opened at 6.00 but it closed at 3.90.
So if you snooze, you lose. But there is another week on those options – (too close still for my liking, though)
January 18th, 2013 at 5:10 pm
Teresa
Nice move up on XRT today – time to jump in (question mark) got to fix this keyboard.
January 18th, 2013 at 5:12 pm
Brian ON…some of these silver securities have horrendous Betas and rival natural gas (or as Tawney call it, “nasty gas”). For example, SLW.TO is 2.42 and PAA.TO is 1.73. MAG.TO is 2.7. ABX on the other hand, has a beta of just 0.56 (hard to believe). So expect some serious gyrations.
January 18th, 2013 at 5:49 pm
Tawny
No I have not experienced smoke yet. I did pass through lots of it on the way down to AZ in the fall through Idaho, and also saw a fire north of Phoenix in Flagstaff. You have to go higher elevation north of Phoenix to see any forests, which like anywhere else get tinder dry in summer if there is no rain.
January 18th, 2013 at 6:27 pm
NRG, what area is your place in Phoenix? Mine was in midtown across from the Phoenix Country Club.
January 18th, 2013 at 8:04 pm
For Holders of Foreign Stocks in ETFs (either Cnd or Foreign)
In the Jan issue of Canadian Moneysaver, there is a short intro type article on the most tax efficient way to hold these etfs (page 18). With some you pay withholding tax and it is recoverable, with some it is not recoverable, with some you don’t pay withholding tax at all. Worth a read.
I don’t usually buy this mag but thought this article alone may save way more than the 3.95 cover price.
January 18th, 2013 at 8:36 pm
Tawny:
#58 – It’s time for Retail sector. I will soon buy some too.
January 18th, 2013 at 10:02 pm
Tawny,
Re: Arizona – we have been here for 2 months now – between Phoenix and Tucson – smelled smoke one day. Arizona is dusty – but if the dust doesn’t bother you – should not find it a problem.
As long as you are not renting your home out here – should not have any issues with taxes. There is a form to fill out and submit annually – can find the # if you want. You need to keep track of the # of days you spend in the US each year – can’t spend over 182 for sure. You need to prove you have a closer attachment to another country than the US – and then no worries re: tax. Basically you have to have your belonging, principal residence, etc. in Canada and should have no problems.
I believe when you sell, you will need to file US taxes and pay on the capital gain if there is one.
We attended a seminar at home re: snowbirds in the US. I have the information at home – but could e-mail it to you when we go home in April. You don’t have to stay under $100,000 unless you plan to rent it out.
Glad to see you are doing well with your trades! Have just taken a position in a couple of seasonal trades for now.
Deb
January 18th, 2013 at 10:14 pm
Freddebuoy
Thanks for the info. Kind’ve intesting though, ABX (nyse) has a beta of 0.4 according to google finance, whereas ABX.to has a beta of -0.1. A fair bit of difference depending on the market. I think ABX has been hammered lately over it’s problems in Chile / argentina, where cost over-runs are ruling (ruining) the day.
I know posters here generally aren’t high on company numbers, but, ABX has a 10.1 PE, 2.3% dividend, 5 yr dividend growth of 18%, and a 22% payout ratio. And despite the growth problems some good growth prospects. I’ll cross my fingers.
January 19th, 2013 at 11:46 am
Note : Have not rea d latest posts
Just cleaning up some files and wanted to share this link with you which contains a CAPE chart about the cheapest and most expensive global markets NOW (Dec 26, 2012)
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-global-market-cyclical-adjust-pes-2012-12
January 19th, 2013 at 11:53 am
This is another CAPE chart which shows U.S. market currently – this appears to be updated daily or perhaps weekly… other charts as well, see tabs at top of page..
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
January 19th, 2013 at 11:59 am
I clicked on the chart in #67 on Table and found this –
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table
Interesting to see the P/E for Jan. 2007, 2008, and 2009 ! I think watching these charts can be valuable to one’s financial health! Hope I am not boring everyone with this stuff. Check out the 2000 P/E for irrational exuberance.
January 19th, 2013 at 12:12 pm
Hi Kam
Thanks for your very helpful answer.
How did you guess that I am of East Indian origin?
Did you live in India?
Any way one more question, how can I get MA(20) line to show on the same chart as
DV does as shown above.
you seem to have good knowledge of using STOCKCHART.COM.
I am hoping you can answer to this question again.
Thanks
January 19th, 2013 at 1:16 pm
I see on bloomberg that Blankfeins bonus at Goldman Sachs will be approx 19 million. Plus a meager salary of 2 million. On the board, the lowest stock awards (just a part of their bonus) ranges from a low of 3.2 million to 13.3 million for the dozen odd board members.
Is there any doubt that they set their own pay rewards? Talk about the fox looking after the hen house.
On the positive side, i see GS stock rising very impressively from $90 to $145 per share in 2012, a truly excellent stock performance. I guess this is the reason that these wizards are compensated so well.
Of course, looking at the 3 year chart, GS still is just barely approaching 2011 highs of $170 per share. Do you think they lost all of their bonuses in 2011 after the stock dove? Not likely.
What does this mean for me as a trader? Not much. Except that if you really want to get rich on equity’s, best to be on the board of directors.
or…
I also note a huge double bottom pattern on the three year part, now mostly completed. Hmm… wish i had seen that earlier.
January 19th, 2013 at 2:24 pm
Thanks everyone for replying and offering suggestions. Much appreciated.
January 19th, 2013 at 2:48 pm
TechTalk,
I like your grading system & updates you give.
Freddebuoy & FishFat,
Thanks for the feedback. Also the stock/etf has to be in sweet spot for it to be considered a trade
RolLew
Thanks for detailed answer. ZUB is on my radar since last year for seasonality. However, I decided on CND banks. I agree RIM & CCO were special situation. I will look at Feb 12 puts on RIM in RRSP (Buy Puts). Your feedback appreciated.
Thanks for the video.Very informative. I agree the way he uses set ups is good way.As I am not techsavy Can I request you to save & paste one for me eg Rim-T.
Thanks in advance
Also I could find vxx on TDW but not vix. Does it trade under diff symbol.
January 19th, 2013 at 3:00 pm
Hi RolLew,
I tried this. Might sound silly BUT 1.Is this right & 2.How do I read it??
Thanks in advance.
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
January 19th, 2013 at 3:07 pm
RolLew,
Try this
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
January 19th, 2013 at 3:32 pm
Freddebuoy re:#41
Why do you expect a short term drop in RIM next week? January 31st is still nearly two weeks away.
FF
January 19th, 2013 at 4:08 pm
Hi Munazir,
Can you set up a temp email address on yahoo dot com and email me from there?
I will e-mail you back on monday shots of two stocks that I will buy calls on, stx & met, WHEN it looks to me that the DAILY SQUEEZE has also fired off long. Too bad that we cannot post screen shots to this page.
I really cannot complain about my VXX
Mar 25 puts. From 1.70 to 2.90 in the last 2 weeks. Thursday was a bit weird though,
as vxx did not reflect what the mkt did on the day. This VXX is really a strange creature sometimes. (All the time?
What it appears to be though, is, stay away from the way otm strikes.
I am thinking, between tza/tna, and vxx, that may be all I need this year.
And all of this other stuff, maybe I should not try to fit too many of them in,
except for the divvy stocks that I just hold and do not look at too often.
ok, the VIX itself is not a stock or an etf & does not trade anywhere, it is just a math concept. But you can trade options & futures on it.
On the RIMMer, they are releasing their
super-duper iPhone Killer next week, I think. The smartphone to end all smartphones. A lot of people think that they can & will do it. Remember what john carter was saying about high volatility.
if it is high, then do not buy. On the RIMMer, Feb imp vol is in the 90′s. march imp vol is in the 80′s.
imp vol on a normal stock is 20 to maybe 40.
So i think the options are saying that the
super-duper release will be either a big boom, or a big bust. So buying any RIMMer options here is not something that i would be brave enough to do. After the big release, iv will fall, & you might lose
$$, on calls as well as on puts.
So no, I do not have a way to use the RIMMer here. Except as john did with the 2 he talked about in the video, i.e., sell otm put spreads, on the nite before the release.
January 19th, 2013 at 4:37 pm
Sorry Web Master – Wrong email vs tech talk commenters…..
Comment is awaiting moderation.
January 19th, 2013 at 4:34 pm
Muntazir,
Forgot – My temp email
rollew007@yahoo.ca
January 20th, 2013 at 2:14 am
Hi RolLew,
Thanks for reminding me on IV for Rim/John. I will try & keep paper trail from Tues.
Also you have mail.
Good Night
January 20th, 2013 at 12:45 pm
Muntazir,
I emailed a couple comments on stx & met
January 20th, 2013 at 3:32 pm
RolLew,
I emailed you some comments