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Editor’s Note: Don Vialoux is scheduled to appear on BNN Television at 4:50 PM EST on Monday)
Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 25th
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 5 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to higher than consensus fourth quarter results by Starbucks, Halliburton, Procter & Gamble, Kimberly Clark, KLA Tencor and TempurPedic.
Other companies to report fourth quarter results included AT&T, Microsoft, Juniper, ETrade, Samsung, Honeywell and Hasbro.
Canada’s December Consumer Prices were significantly lower than expected. Consensus was a decline of 0.2% from November. Actual was a decline of 0.6%. On a year-over year basis, Canada’s Consumer Price Index increased 0.8%.The Canadian Dollar dropped 0.45 cents U.S. on the news.
Goldman Sachs slipped $0.80 to $144.16 after Citigroup and Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
Ford eased $0.01 to $13.86 after Barclays downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal Weight.
Canadian Pacific dropped $0.40 to $112.67 after Canaccord downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell.
JP Morgan added $0.54 to $46.91 after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
Oracle (ORCL $34.94) is expected to open lower after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Conviction Buy to Buy.
Amgen added $0.71 to $83.33 after Argus upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
EBay improved $0.71 to $55.90 after Susquehanna initiated coverage with a positive rating.
Rentech Nitrogen, Agrium and CF Industries are expected to open higher after Dahlman Rose upgraded them from Hold to Buy based on improving nitrogen pricing.
Technical Watch
Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL) – $39.59 added 4.7% after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock broke above resistance at $37.90 on Wednesday and is expected to break above resistance at $38.76 at the opening to reach a 14 month high. Next resistance at $39.88 is about to be broken. The stock has formed a massive reverse head and shoulders pattern. The stock remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid-November. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Seasonal influences have just turned positive for a move into May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/clip_image001113.png "clip_image001[1]")
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/clip_image00319.png "clip_image003[1]")
Interesting Charts
Despite major U.S. equity indices closing at new highs (Dow Industrials, Dow Transports, Russell 2000, S&P 500), selected sectors are struggling on a real and relative basis.
Gold equities are leading the Mines and Metals sector on the downside.
The Technology sector also is leading on the downside thanks mainly to weakness in Apple.
Updates on Sector Season Trades
Seasonal trades preferably have a technical score of 3 based on (1) trending up, (2) trading above its 20 day moving average and (3) outperforming the market.
Technical score for the forest product equity ETF is 3.0. End of the period of seasonal strength is mid-February and (if extended) the first week in April.
Technical score for the TSX Mines and Metals sector fell from 1.0 to 0.0 when the Index closed below its 20 day moving average yesterday. Short term traders are taking profits. The sector has a history of underperformance between now and mid-February.
Technical score for the Industrial sector is 3.0. The Index and its related ETF closed at another all-time high yesterday. Seasonal influences are positive until early May.
Technical score for the Consumer Discretionary sector and related ETFs is 3.0. The Index closed at an all-time high yesterday. Seasonal influences are positive until mid-April.
Technical score for the Agriculture ETF is 3.0. The period of favourable seasonality has passed, but technical remain strong. Hold until technical scores start to decline.
Technical score for the Semiconductor sector is 3.0, but strength relative to the S&P 500 is close to turning negative for a possible downgrade to 2.0. Seasonal influences are positive until the first week in March.
Technical score for the Materials sector is 3.0. Seasonal influences currently are favourable, but turn more positive at the end of February. The Index is heavily weighted in chemical stocks.
Technical score for the Homebuilders ETF remains 3.0. Its period of seasonal strength ends in the first week in February.
Copper maintains a technical score of 2.0. Relative strength has yet to turn positive. Seasonal strength is positive until May.
Silver maintained its technical score of 3.0 despite weakness yesterday. Its period of seasonal strength is positive until at least the first week in March.
Ditto for Platinum! Technical score is 3.0.
Ditto for Palladium! Technical score is 3.0
Technical score for Canada’s energy sector changed from 2.0 to 3.0 thanks to confirmation that strength relative to the TSX Composite has turned positive. Seasonal influences are positive until at least early May and possibly mid-June on an extension.
Technical score for the U.S Oil & Gas Exploration and Development sector is 3.0. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April.
Technical score for the Oil Services sector is 3.0. Seasonal influences are positive until May 9th
Thackray’s 2013 Investment Guide
Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s Guide is here. Order through www.alphamountain.com , Amazon, Chapters or Books on Business.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Materials Sector Seasonal Chart
Eric Wheatley’s Weekly Column
Hello to all you as-yet unthawed readers,
I remember when the VIX was still a new and extremely esoteric index. Volatility is a vague concept at its simplest (the standard deviation of a randomly chosen data set), so a 30-day annualised implied volatility index – actually based upon a variance swap, which is important to know – shouldn’t intuitively have become a cornerstone index for market commentators everywhere. Yet here we are: you can now buy or sell numerous ETFs and futures on the index and you can even buy or sell options on the products based upon an index which measures options prices [which pretty much just resembles the pivotal scene from Being John Malkovitch in terms of circular reasoning].
Given that Mr. Vialoux has always granted me editorial freedom in this forum, I’ll take a stab at formulating my opinion of the VIX and its application to regular people: it’s like planning your summer 2015 wedding and choosing the date based upon average temperatures and rainfall in Winnipeg over the past ten years. To wit: the VIX measures implied volatility in the first two expiries of S&P 500 index options. If you own the S&P 500 or its proxies (e.g. SPY or XSP), it’s like living in Winnipeg in our example; that is, the data can be a little relevant. If your holdings are geographically diversified, focused on certain industries or hedged, then it would be like living in Halifax and using Winnipeg data. Not to say that the information has NO relevance, but it certainly isn’t ideal.
As long as you understand that index options are different animals from stock options (Reference: I used to trade index options and futures primarily and stock options off of our index positions) and that the data come from a small corner of the markets, then yes, the VIX can be relevant. Since it is based on one of – if not the – most liquid options classes in the world and is used by most every type of market participant, it can give you some insight into whether people are buying or selling options more generally. This, in turn, can help you get some instinctive feel for market sentiment. What I get a little bent out of shape about is that people place just a little too much credence in the number.
To get back to our previous weeks’ subject, on December 31st the VIX spiked. This was a very good coincident indicator of the market’s going a little goofy ahead of the uncertain fiscal situation in the States. Since then, the index has dropped back into its regular dozy little underpriced groove. For many months now, people have been stating quite confidently that this means that the market is about to experience a major reversal of fortune, because the VIX is KNOWN to be a contrarian indicator and it’s at record lows. In fact, the market has been quite volatile (or at least it was a few months ago), but yield-hungry options sellers are keeping volatilities particularly low, much like bond or dividend yields which are also extremely unyielding nowadays.
As with everything else, you have to get to know what you’re studying and understand its behaviour. On a charting website, I’ve no lessons to give to people who, by their very nature, understand the subjectivity and ambiguity of certain indicators and their occasional false signals.
*****************
In this week’s French-language blog: gods in machines, Algerian memories and the seventh circle of hell.
Cheers!
Éric Wheatley, MBA, CIM
Associate Portfolio Manager, J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc.
eric@jchood.com
514.604.2829; 1.855.348.2829
Twitter: @jchood_eric_en
Blogue en français : gbsfinancier.blogspot.ca
*****************
Little known fact about John Charles Hood #58
John Charles Hood is well acquainted with Dante’s œuvre. Luckily, he’s remained extremely limber and will do well in limbo.
Tech Talk’s Weekly ETF Column
(Published yesterday at www.globeandmail.com )
Headline reads, “Beat the U.S. indexes with these Canadian ETFs”. Following is a link to the report:
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 24th 2013
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: HAL
January 25th, 2013 at 9:17 am
What is the definition of ‘positive’ Relative Strength? The trend shows ” higher highs & higher lows ” or ” is above the 20 DMA ” ?
January 25th, 2013 at 9:34 am
what a great call on slv when I sold it yesterday,I didn’t make he max but some money as much as I would have liked but its getting interesting as it drops more, another 41cents and it will be interesting to see if it holds. Don as it as a 3 on is buy list…
January 25th, 2013 at 9:45 am
hi Tony,
1 attaboy for you! I’m still holding my HZU which has dropped to what I got in at.
Finger near the sell button.
Still
January 25th, 2013 at 9:48 am
and I’m watching the rest (VRX, POT) run away from me (I’m not a chaser).
January 25th, 2013 at 10:08 am
Migdu.
RSI is relative strengh index its based on avg up closes vs avg down closes for it to be considered positive it should be set above the 50 mark,
having higher highs/Higher lows your in an uptrend.
20DMA, well some t.a analyst use it to spot trends. when there are crosses of MAs like a 9/18 or a 20/50. I use it as support any move above or below is either a buy or a sell. you can look at different cmpanies,
every time you have price cross abvoe the 18MA you if wrong your loss are very small, but the gains are substantial, look at slv in august went from 26.5 to 34 had you bought it you would have sold on a gap down below the 18ma at 33$ so no you didn’t get the max but darn 7$/share in 2 months is 24% return. find me a gic at that rate any product that can trade in one year… there great companies avg companies and the dogs I don’t want to live the downs anymore so I only buy when I see nice cross overs as they are safe bets and I don’t have to worry to much (unless you do like me and buy a lousy uranium stock in march 2011 and get hit by an earthquake.
miners are a high risk high reward, any bad news will blow up your portfolio.
January 25th, 2013 at 10:17 am
Still
HZU yesterday broke below the 18MA at the open that was your sell signal.
thats what I did so I made 480$ small return 2.6% for a one week holding its good its always 2% more then the one who bought from me hehehe!!!
this week I bought tck (36.55) as I didn’t want to miss out on it, the 18MA got triggered this morning as it broke below so I took a 9cents/sh loss. but at least at night i can sleep on my two ears.
January 25th, 2013 at 10:27 am
To TechTalk:
The presentation of “Update to Seasonal Sectors” was clear and concise. Thank you.
January 25th, 2013 at 10:28 am
Tony,
Appreciate your input. I saw HZU touch the 9MA but on my chart it was no where near the 18MA yet?? I was waiting to see if the 9MA would hold today, and it didn’t so I got out with a .02 loss.
Bernie
January 25th, 2013 at 10:31 am
Still
pot and vrx are over extended as they haven’t yet taged the 4ma, so wait today if they close without tagging there will be a short correction on them back to at least the 18MA or lower.
January 25th, 2013 at 10:40 am
Tony,
re#9. I agree POT and VRX are overextended but I’m not sure they will revert all the way to their 18MA? What do you have for the 18MA on POT? I have 41.53 based on a SMA.
Hope you are having a better day with life today, sounds like it.
Bernie
January 25th, 2013 at 10:42 am
Still sorry about the confusion,
thats what happens when the brain is on the fritz for so long(sinus congestion for the last few days.)
SLV broke above the 50MA but cam below it this is why I came to sell it, if the 18MA holds I will buy back, as it should repeat the august pattern, break above the 50MA pullback below it find support on the 18MA and finally rally.
January 25th, 2013 at 10:49 am
Still I use the 4MA as an indicator or a reversal,
basically when a stock runs away in either direction of the 4MA their is always a retracement to the 4MA, if it doesn’t happen on ordinary day this means you’ll have a reversal (can be short lived but works most of the time.)
the only reason it doesn’t retrace is because of any event that affects a company.
earthquake, cave in, earnings, fire at a facility and the list goes on.
January 25th, 2013 at 10:50 am
Still
if earnings is the reason of the pop or drop, don’t fight the tape.
January 25th, 2013 at 10:58 am
test
January 25th, 2013 at 10:58 am
new browser, IE 10
January 25th, 2013 at 10:59 am
Still
I use the sma, pot.to 18MA is currently 41.63
January 25th, 2013 at 11:22 am
Tony,
Re#16, I have 41.53, small diff, no matter (probably difference in data sources).
Wow, if the pullback comes, a lot of stocks that I follow are going to take a hit.
Thanks, Still
January 25th, 2013 at 12:26 pm
Teresa
Just wondering how you are doing as I haven’t seen you around here for some time?
Are you still with UpTrend? I spoke with Whiteside for over an hour today and he reinforced a lot of valuable swing trading information that somehow I lost by listening and reading too much. So I am getting back on board and hopefully simplifying my trading and time spent going forward.
Let me know how you are doing and about your experience with Uptrend if you have a chance.
January 25th, 2013 at 12:39 pm
still
which website do you use i’m on both stockcharts canadian stocks are 15 min delayed.
January 25th, 2013 at 1:13 pm
I was wrong on the gold sector in awhole, and am sorry about it, saw some positive signs but it didn’t realize.
January 25th, 2013 at 1:30 pm
Tawny,
Can you share more of the valuable swing trading information? I must say that I am exhausted day trading, so perhaps I need some rest.
It is an interesting market. We were warned by that the first quarter would not be strong because of the post election year, however the market rebounds on every little pullback. Then, we keep on getting reminded about ’tis the season!’ So I am confused, as usual.
Gold and silver look done here. So I am not sure of the seasonal trade.
NTR: My sincere condolences to those who have lost loved ones. It is certainly hard to say a final goodbye to those that you have loved.
January 25th, 2013 at 1:31 pm
Did you miss the opportunity to sell SLW at Tony”s 18 day MA as I did? If so, don’t sell yet – there may be a faint hope clause yet.
There is a solid support line at between $34.03. Today’s action has taken the stock down to $34.22 and is trying to rally of that. If it’s successful, it could go back up to the top of the triangle or to either the 18 or 50 day MA (that’s what I’m counting on). However (always watch the howevers) should support at $34.03 fail – take your losses and lick your wounds. Your next support is likely the 200 day MA at $32.66.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLW&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50260686583&a=239320074
January 25th, 2013 at 1:46 pm
FreddeB
Are you talking to me?
I sold SLV yesterday at after it opened below the 50MA, and I have bid at around the 18MA, if it works out i will go whohouuu otherwise I will bouhouuu
January 25th, 2013 at 1:48 pm
Tony
Yes, I had OSK, SLW, and ABX. Held the ABX for now, but I dumped the others yesterday at a slight loss. That trade seems to be going nowhere.
Today dumped half of my CVE just after opening this morning, at a small profit. It seemed to be butting it’s head on the $34 mark, it has a lot of resistance there. It’s been down since. If it drops back to low $32′s again, I will buy more.
January 25th, 2013 at 1:56 pm
Hi Tawny:
#18 – I was quite busy this week. Finally can take a break. No, I haven’t check the Uptrend for a while. Not even quite sure whether I still can log in my trail account. I will try it later and let you know. But in general, I like their system. It’s pretty consistant.
I was waiting for XRT to pull back so I can load some, since last week you loaded. No luck ;-(. Still waiting….. Luckily I loaded some Kors on Tuesday and it’s up 6% now and bought some tjx this moring. At least have somthing in Reail Sector.
Are you still holding your silver? I unloaded HZU with 5% gain and SLW with 2% down.
Whatelse do you have?
January 25th, 2013 at 2:06 pm
Heee
did I mention to buy OSK? has to break above the 50MA otherwise its a dog couldn’t make for two consecutive runs at it.
Slw broke above the 50MA and then retreated below it that was a sell signal. with a buy at the 18MA if it held didn’t take your loss and go elsewhere.
ABX same reasoning couldn’t hold above the 50MA broke below the 18MA not worth holding on to
cve is probably a good bet as long as it stays above the 18MA.
thats my view
January 25th, 2013 at 2:35 pm
I would be cautious here. back in 08 fxi fell then the us market followed,
eem, and fxi have crossed below the 18MA
January 25th, 2013 at 2:48 pm
Ana
Our discussion on swing trading was using the UpTrend system. I was doing quite well with it before and got side tracked. I suggest you give it a 30-day free trial and if you do, spend time to read and learn through the tutorials.
One take away that we all know but do not necessarily heed is THE CHARTS are what you need to be focused on. Stop listening to the noise whether it is from news or other people opinion which it seems you – like most of us – are doing. I keep an eye on Chris Ciovacco Tweet intraday as he is focused on the charts, but I want to stop this too. https://twitter.com/CiovaccoCapital
Also, what anyone can use is: Have a plan to sell your trade. He uses the Daily Swing Trade Charts and in his system there are price targets for each stock or ETF… As soon as he executes a buy, he places his order to sell 50% of his position at the first target, if that completes he immediately places another sell order for 50% of the balance at the second target level, and sells the balance on the sell signal.
This is discipline. Of course, one will leave some money on the table doing this, but you wont suddenly find all your profits wiped out by a big drop.
On his system you can create your own portfolios. Each morning he spends 5 minutes checking his portfolio looking for sell signals. If action is required, he executes. If not, he does not look again for the rest of the day. (WOW) That seems like a tough thing to do, but I am going to attempt to do it. You can also check for new BUY signals and take another trade or not. Lots of places to scan looking for a low risk buy opportunities.
Another big take away for me is that there will be losses. Charts change – it is not my fault.
Hope that helps you and any other reader. Personally, I am sitting with some cash – about 23% having sold some for profits and taken some silver losses. I will be looking for some Low Risk Opportunities and ready to move on any more sell signals.
The S&P is at a level now where it will go one way or another.
January 25th, 2013 at 2:50 pm
Tony – thanks, but i don’t know if you mentioned OSK. But dont worry, I bought that dog all on my own.
January 25th, 2013 at 2:57 pm
hi Tony,
re#19. I use AmiBroker and EOD for all my charting. During the day, I update these charts a few times using their AmiQuote, which patches into Yahoo finance on a 15 min delay basis.
Still
January 25th, 2013 at 3:05 pm
Hi Tony,
Please explain more about 18MA, 50MA that you use in support of your decisions. How can I set these MAs in the charts. Sorry, I’m new in the market.
January 25th, 2013 at 3:33 pm
Teresa
I did not buy XRT either. I am waiting now for lower risk opportunities for this sector. I sense the market turning, putting that aside because this is thinking which I am not applying to the markets henceforth (I hope), but the main thing it is hard to find low risk opportunities now.
My best holdings without question are Europe – and they are doing exceptionally well today. New highs in Italy and Spain. GREK is doing very, very well. RSX doing well today and am looking for a major breakout. Have other ETFs on my horizon but they are over bought and I am waiting non too patiently for a pullback and buying opp. I mentioned VNM recently here but did not buy – it is up again today… also it is not listed with UpTrend and I would like to stick with those that are. Looking at HAO and XCH and a few ETFs in the US but again I want a lower risk buying opp.
It will be very interesting to see if and how much Europe and Asia pull back if and when the U.S. markets do. U.S. having much higher valuations than the others.
Thinking out loud. The chart, the charts and nothing but! Looking for lower risk opp.
January 25th, 2013 at 3:36 pm
Tawny,
Thank you for this information. I do think that taking profit is really important in trading whether it is day trading or swing trading. This is one of the main reason that I can attribute success to.
Have to run to work!
Ana
January 25th, 2013 at 3:40 pm
Still
amiquote is it a paid subscription…
I use stockcharts the free version you must do the updates automatically troughout the day otherwise paying members have an update feature for every 15sec us is realtime and cnd can be realtime but must get take the higher end subscription.
January 25th, 2013 at 3:40 pm
Teresa
Forgot to mention Ireland – flying in the “green.” I never bought the bank, but IRL and EIRL both up over 2% today making new 5 year highs.. after 3 year base building – Swanson is not to be ignored. (his videos can be painfully slow, but his info very valuable).
January 25th, 2013 at 4:07 pm
Tawny:
Agree. His videos drag on and on. But he has his point of view and worth watch. Do you happen to know whether he has any new directions?
January 25th, 2013 at 4:15 pm
Tawny:
For the IRE, i still think it worth put some money into it. Maybe small position. It used to be a $900 stock before 2008. Can not believe it! This is first time, take a look at the US banks today, compare to 2008~2009. If put some money into IRE, might be a very good return in a couple of years.
January 25th, 2013 at 4:15 pm
ch
MAs are moving averages , you simply need to set them up with whichever website/app you are using. stockcharts has it as an indicator.
the 18MA is on what I base my tradings on(I use a daily chart time frame you can set up on a smaller time frame if thats your wish) . A move above the 18MA is a buy a move below is a sell. a move above another MA should stands as support as long as it holds on to it. if price bumps against another MA you need to reevaluate your situation as it could reverse on you if you see price drop its a good idea to exit the trade. until you retest the 18MA, or break above this MA. Look at appl after it broke below the 18MA every rally ended up short of the 50MA before pulling back
Ok now for support and resistance, few months after listening to many great bloggers on this site, and on tv. I noticed that not only the 50 or 200MA are perfect support/resistance but there’s a myriad of MAs that you can use. here are the most common MAs 9, 18, 38, 50, 100, 150 and 200.
for instance if you’ve been following this site for some time in feb 2012 everytime wzr.v hit the 150 it bounced right back up. the person who asked my opinion probably quadrupled his investement.
gld on its way down in 2012 had problems holding above the 38MA. on every rally.
these are examples that you need to figure out for yourself.
here s another example cmg we had a famous blogger on this site who decide to short chipolte, when it was rallying she decide to take her loss but when the stock wass trading in the 300s I told her to buy everytime it tagged the 9 and 18 and sell when overextend when It finally broke below the 18MA I told her to short it, at 425 and this one moved to 250$ there were a few rallies but the damage to her portfolio was overdone and she didn’t profit when it was done she was to caught up on the fundamentals, yes fundametals are an essential part as great traders will take undervalued stock and pile money into them but be careful as people sentiment can stampede over your bullishness.
January 25th, 2013 at 4:37 pm
Teresa
#37 : I will look for opportunity with IRE, but it is not listed on UpTrend . I do have a few holdings not on UpTrend, but I then have to watch typical charts rather than the Uprend ones. Here is a list of Europe ETFs – performance to date – that is about 17 trading days… awesome
http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/europe-equities/sortfield/symbol/sortdir/a/
Swanson sold some of his European banks (purchase via pink sheets), not that they are not good, he says, but they are his shortest term holdings and he wanted to raise some cash as he is expecting a pull back in the U.S. He is about 30% cash (so am I right now) Likes to buy after sell off. But this is information from Wall Street window – free – and I think you subscribe?? Other than that he is looking for others “ready to move”
If all the banks start moving, EUFN is perhaps worth considering?
Thanks and keep me posted on your view points, please. What do you think of HAO for China ETF – pulling back so I might get an opportunity soon.
Have a great weekend !
January 25th, 2013 at 4:47 pm
Tawny:
#28 – I think the Weekly signal is pretty reliable. The Daily signals have whipsaws. If use the daily signal to do the swing trade, the confirmation is too late, especially when the stock is in a flat mode. I think the best way to use the daily signal to buy/sell is when there is a vertical small red bar inside the earlier warning and most time no need to wait for the confimation.
For example, http://stock_charts_20130124.s3.amazonaws.com/N2-2023.gif, if we look at the warning signal for buy on Nov, that’s a very reliable signal, even without confirmation and that signal provides the best buying price. The last sell signal has red vertical bar inside it, I would sell it without waiting for the confimation.
Most Signals in between did not provide the optimal buy/sell prices.
January 25th, 2013 at 4:58 pm
Tawny:
#39 – Thanks for sharing the ETF info. Yes, I subscribed it and that’s the last info I got from him also. The reason I am asking you again is I thought you are part of the paid group so might have more “insider” info
.
HAO – I agree buying oppty is there soon, $24?
January 25th, 2013 at 5:14 pm
Hi all,
Look like gold stocks have finally decided to say ‘ok,we were swimming naked when the tide was high”. Broke their uptrendline from last summer as I wrote yesterday and did do it nicely today. One reason I read online is that HSBC did decrease their holding of gold to half and that pressured gold and gold stocks yesterday.Or second reason- ‘Wayne” might be gathering ‘dust’ with backhoe today which dropped gdx?!, One or the other,lol
“A research note from HSBC (NYSE:HBC) indicating that the bank had cut its gold exposure in half sent the metal tumbling in Thursday trading, posting its biggest single-day decline in three weeks. The bank noted that gold’s value as an inflation hedge had eroded as the economic situation appeared to be improving in the U.S. and Europe.”
Sounds right as we read this all the time here how people think worst is behind in Europe and some are holding high flying euro stocks too. Look like this gold trade might end badly again this spring.
Gold also closed below its 200ma.I don’t know where GDX bottom might be but we are on same path as last year where SPX keep moving higher and GDX lower.If and when spx start going lower this might get more ugly.Hgu is about 30 cents away from the lowest of the year but this thing is eroded and have no value of its own so just watch GDX if someone want to.
Tech talk’s favorite ‘slow dog’ is doing what is does best. while GDX,ABX,GG,NEM are about 5-7% down in last 3 days, our ‘doggy”KGC’ is down 15% almost. Good job buddy.
http://tiny.cc/8rlhrw
January 25th, 2013 at 5:32 pm
teresa
don’t go long HAO, look at post 27 fxi broke its uptrend. eem broke the 18MA
January 25th, 2013 at 5:33 pm
kam
gdx can’t break above the 50 its a short.
January 25th, 2013 at 5:37 pm
Hi Tawny:
Thanks for your mention of HEE. I checked it out and like the dividend and the covered call premise. I bought a half position. Did you find this in Uptrends or Whiteside?
Florence
January 25th, 2013 at 6:01 pm
Tony,
re#34 …Amiquote (AQ) comes included with AmiBroker (AB) charting and trade system software. They suggest a $60 ‘contribution’ for lifetime AQ but it is not crippled. It imports 15-min delayed data directly into AB. AB is $199 USD, and well worth it in my opinion.
FYI, see: http://www.amibroker.com/index.html
Still
January 25th, 2013 at 6:40 pm
Tony:
#43 – Thanks for the advise. Even if I buy it, I probably will just buy it for a quick bounce(Once the ST0 turns) for now. Too much uncentainty.
January 25th, 2013 at 7:45 pm
Hi Tony,
re-44,
I am staying away from GDX.I am not buying at all to hold but to day trade NUGT and DUST.I didn’t touch nugt today and have no guts to gather DUST.Xiv is all I played 2 buy sells for about 48 cents and back to all cash except those divi stocks I have.Nothing to buy at the moment with spx at 1500.Sleep well at night.
I was just posting so that guys don’t fall into the trap that GDX is very low specially HGU is almost back at 52 week low and start buying heavily.We know how that ended last year for some of us.
January 25th, 2013 at 10:44 pm
Tony
Teresa and I were not talking about buying HAO right NOW – aware it has turned down which is good…. looking for opportunity to buy after it has dropped and heading back up. If this is the season for small caps, why not small cap China as it comes back to life. I know you do not care about fundamentals but valuations in China are relatively cheap…. Russell 200 IWM P/E 16.4; HAO 11.3 P/E. So, if small caps continue to be in favour, I have interest in HAO.
Thanks for looking at this though – appreciated.
January 25th, 2013 at 10:47 pm
Teresa Re #41
If I see interesting news with Swanson, I will be happy to share…. as always.
I will look at your post on weekly vs. daily charts when I am more alert… thanks.
January 25th, 2013 at 10:53 pm
Florence #45
HEE – someone mentioned it when I said I was looking for good energy ETF for dividend.
I am growing more and more adverse to owning individual “shocks” (stocks).. LOL
BTW, UpTrend is Whiteside.
Glad you like HEE too! Distribution is near month end so I took my full position. I don’t think it will go down that much more… can’t be bothered to do half/half – too many things I am watching out for.
Yep, I learned about it from someone else. I really like it when others help out and share.
January 25th, 2013 at 11:14 pm
KAM
Just before heading off to dreamland, I wanted to say I am sorry to learn about your recent loss. My heart goes out to you. As we get older these losses grow – an old friend of mine died recently at the age of 91… his son told me all his friends had long passed. And these losses, unlike stock market losses are unrecoverable – all we have left is the memories.. and we grasp them and don’t let them go. I think so often about my lost people – conversations, incidents, gatherings – usually when I am in my dreamland. I miss them so.
I have been going through my contact list which is on Maximizer – a contact management software that I have been using since 1996… my whole life is on it and the program does not work on Windows 8. So I have been cleaning up this database and finally did a print out as I am afraid of losing all my contact info. Oh, I am digressing, the point is -
While going through my names, I am sad to think about how many names are on there — friends and family who are deceased. I have never had the heart to delete them. All names on my data base are linked with notes from telephone calls and some documents as well over all these years. I created a new “field” and they are now listed as “deceased” so although I did not need to print their names and contact info, I will retain this information. Unless I find some new app to import all this information, I will simply keep my old computer on XP and I will be able to look at all the history.
January 26th, 2013 at 11:26 am
Long term Market direction: S&P
3 year weekly chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12454225176
Note that we are continually making higher highs and higher lows = BULL
Overbought right now as we are at the top of the Keltner chanel, so expect some softening back down to the 50 DMA, STO overbought, MACD positive.
HOWEVER we are well entrenched into a long term BULL, as Carrigan called last summer.
P&F chart target supports this notion:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLAADANRBOPADF1!3!1.0!!2!20&pref=G
All other markets are and will follow suit as the S&P 500 is the “Monster” index that drives the lot.
January 26th, 2013 at 12:19 pm
Kam,
You are right! The golds are one sick and sad puppy.
The HSBD downgrade only adds to their woes.
I just read another report that stated that the gold co’s are now required to provide all costs related to their gold production – and as I suspected, in certain cases, it is costing over $ 1,000.00 per ounce. This contrasts unfavourable against previous cost estimates of $ 350.00 – $ 500.00. So, it’s no wonder why they are falling.
I have been long DUST in my partner’s account since October, when the index failed to remain above 353.39. I don’t trade it too often – it’s a large account – so I stick with the trend – and in this case, the trend is definitely down. I am watching it closely here as it is approaching the double bottom from last year – but the funnymentals point to further weakness – so I will stay short until the charts tell me otherwise.
Here’s the yearly chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPTGD&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64082147204
Best!!
January 26th, 2013 at 6:32 pm
Hi Canuck2004,
Rei.un is below 27. In your analysis is it good price for buy & hold or do you see some downside in the near future.TIA
January 27th, 2013 at 2:45 am
Good article :
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1135381-a-plea-to-amazon-bears-apple-bulls-and-others?source=yahoo
This is why some people(including me and Tawny) does not invest in a specific company .
It is impossible sometime to decide why a company is better than the other ( amazon versus apple in this article )
A basket – an index seem better sometimes .
January 27th, 2013 at 11:26 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6ciY8u04Kk
January 27th, 2013 at 2:28 pm
#55-Muntazir
REI.UN
This is Canada’s first REIT and it is currently the largest. It is very well managed and usually sells at a premium. Great company, I made plenty on this name in the early days post IPO….these days… not much room for growth.
All depends what you are trying to do.
If you are looking for any stock that is relatively stable and has a good yield and some upside, lots of better places to look. MBT under 33 would be one of many (the compelling inside story is the eventual sale of AllStream…this could propel the stock into the 40s and one could also get a yield increase).
If you are looking for a REIT, Dundee (D.UN) has much better growth prospects, cap gains plus good yield combined. BUT not right today, wait for it to cool off a tad.
For Riocan….
Long term investors (for yield) could buy some now, below 27.
It is a low beta stock and volatility is about half of TSX; yield is slightly above 5%…. can’t really get hurt, but not cheap or compelling enough for me.
Like Ross Healy used to say: “If I can see a 30% to 50% gain in the name, I’m not interested”. Pretty well my sentiments.
If it’s a short term trade, yep right now buy some, if it goes lower buy more, then sell on the bounce up. Has potential to 32…although I’ve never seen it there.
January 27th, 2013 at 7:30 pm
Hi Canuck2004,
Thanks for detailed response.
RolLew,
Sent you some emails!
January 27th, 2013 at 11:27 pm
Tony
Thank you for the response. Your input and commentary is highly appreciated. I am a long term reader at this sight and I pay special attention to your advise.
January 28th, 2013 at 12:44 am
Thanks Rol Lew for sending us(#57)to Million Dollar Traders. I managed to start up the Roomba, put in a few loads of laundry and then idle the afternoon away watching it. What a great documentary. It was interesting that in their training they apparently learned some technical analysis and yet seemed to trade only using news.
January 28th, 2013 at 1:21 pm
Hi Tony,
Thanks for your prompt response and highly appreciate your explanation and example.
In the near future if you see some opportunity coming just near or above 18ma, or getting below it, pls let me know then I will see how effective MA is working on the charts. Thanks again with all my heart.