Tech Talk for Friday February 1st 2013

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday February 1st

U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 10 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures responded to news that China’s January Purchasing Managers Index slipped from 50.6 to 50.4 but remained above the 50.0 level indicating growth. The Shanghai Composite gained 1.4%.

Index futures moved higher following release of the January employment report. Consensus for January Non-farm Payrolls was 180,000 versus revised December report at 196,000. Actual was 157,000. Consensus for Private Non-farm Payrolls was 193,000 versus revised December report at 202,000. Actual was 166,000. Consensus for the January Unemployment Rate was a decline to 7.7% from 7.8% in December. Actual was an increase to 7.9%. Consensus for January Hourly Earnings was a gain of 0.2% versus an increase of 0.3% in December. Actual was a gain of 0.2%.

Fourth quarter reports continue to pour in. Companies reporting overnight included Merck, Exxon Mobil, Tyson Foods, Ingersoll-Rand, Newell Rubbermaid, Chevron and Mattel.

Master Card added $1.60 to $520.00 despite a downgrade by Wells Fargo from Outperform to Market Perform.

Oracle improved $0.29 to $35.80 after BMO Capital upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform.

UPS fell $0.35 to $78.94 after Citigroup downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.

Verizon gained $0.33 to $43.94 after Piper Jaffray upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight.

Constellation Brands added $0.21 to 32.57 despite a downgrade by Goldman Sachs from Buy to Neutral.

Buffalo Chicken Wings gained $0.47 to $74.02 after KeyBanc upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy. ‘Tis the season! ;-)

 

Don Vialoux on BNN

A discussion why the TSX Composite Index is expected to outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index between now and the end of the first week in March!

Following is a link to the interview at 4:50 PM yesterday:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip855892

Editor’s Note: The last time that the TSX Composite exceeded the Dow Jones Industrial Average was April 2010. From April 2010 to August 2012, the Dow Jones Industrials exceeded the TSX by 1,350 points. Subsequently, the spread narrow (i.e. the TSX outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average) to 1,143 as of yesterday. If history repeats, the spread should continue to narrow between now and the end of the first week in March.

 

Keith Richards’ Blog

I just posted a blog on a seasonal strategy incorporating a low-volatility ETF. Many thanks to BMO ETF’s and Brooke Thackray for their data. Read the results of this strategy at www.smartbounce.ca

 

Update on Sector Seasonal Trades

Seasonal trades preferably have a technical score of 3 based on (1) uptrend, (2) trading above its 20 day moving average and (3) outperforming the market (S&P 500 for U.S. holdings, TSX for Canadian holding). Scores moving lower than 3 are warning signs. A score of 0-0.5 is a sell signal.

Technical score on the forest product ETF changed from 3 to 2 when strength relative to the S&P 500 turned negative. Technical score is about to drop to 1 on a break below its 20 day MA. Seasonal influences end in mid-February, but can extend to April

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Technical score for the Industrial SPDR remains 3. The Index closed at an all-time high earlier this week. Seasonal influences are positive until early May.

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Technical score for the Consumer Discretion SPDR remains 3. The Index closed at an all-time high earlier this week. Seasonal influences are positive until mid-April

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Technical score for the Retail SPDR (a subsector of Consumer Discretionary sector) is 3. Units closed at an all-time closing high yesterday. Seasonal influences are positive until mid-April.

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Technical score for the Agriculture ETF changed from 3 to 2 when strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned negative. Its period of seasonal strength has passed. Take profits.

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Technical score for the Semiconductor ETF is 3. Seasonal influences are positive until the first week in March.

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Technical score for the Materials SPDR fell from 3 to 1 when units fell below their 20 day moving average yesterday and showed underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index. Warning signs have appeared. Seasonal influences turn more positive near the end of February.

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Technical score for the Home Builders ETF is 3, but relative strength shows early signs of under-performance. Seasonal strength ends next week. A drop in technical score is a sell signal.

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Copper’s technical score increased from 2 to 3 when strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive. Seasonal influences are positive until May.

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Silver’s technical score is 2.5, down from 3.0 last week. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from positive to neutral.

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Platinum’s technical score is 3. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May.

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Ditto for Palladium! Technical score is 3. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May.

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Technical score for the TSX Energy iShares is 3. Seasonal influences are positive until early May with a possible extension to mid-June.

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Technical score for the U.S. Oil and Gas Exploration and Development ETF is 3. Units broke to a new high on Wednesday. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April

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Technical score for the Philadelphia Oil Services Index is 3. Units touched a 12 month high yesterday. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April.

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Technical score for the Energy SPDR is 3. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April.

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Thackray’s 2013 Investment Guide

Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s Guide is here. Order through www.alphamountain.com , Amazon, Chapters or Books on Business.

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

Retail Industry Seasonal Chart

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FP Trading Desk Headline

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Earnings have little to do with growing interest in stocks”. Following is a link to the report:

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/31/earnings-have-litte-to-do-with-growing-interest-in-stocks/

Eric Wheatley’s Listed Options Column

Hello good readers,

In this season of schizophrenic weather (it’s currently 9° out and raining like crazy as I write this. In a much earlier and carefree incarnation of my life, I’d dated ladies who reminded me of my city. Emotional whipsaws are like our winters and after certain outbursts, you can’t believe that you’re dealing with this… stuff; but goshdarnit, you’re quickly reminded of her charms and can’t leave), I guess it’d be relevant to continue our discussion of volatility.

As mentioned last week, the VIX is historically underpriced. It’s not that people aren’t expecting volatile markets, it’s just that yield-hungry investors are massively selling options because they can’t get sufficient returns elsewhere. Two corollaries can be derived from this fact: a) options writers (such as myself with our clients) have to be very attentive to what they are doing. We don’t want to give up too much on the upside without being properly compensated; b) options buyers are probably buying cheap volatilities.

We’ll discuss path-dependency and delta-hedging next week. Here, I’ll just define a couple of low-risk, direction-neutral strategies which could be used by those who wish to have fun and possibly profit from singularly odd market circumstances.

Not to baby this too much, but I do need to start from the beginning: options come in two varieties, calls and puts. Calls give their holder the right to buy shares at a given price, and puts give their holder the right to sell shares at a given price. This means that if you own a call and the underlying stock’s price rises, your call will become more valuable. Conversely, if you own a put, it’ll become more valuable if the stock’s price drops.

The fun thing about options is that you can combine them in any number of weird ways to create funky new positions your parents never dared tell you about. This Mr. Potato Head-like characteristic scares away lots of neophytes; options seem crazy complicated and most people don’t dare touch them. This makes me sad, much like some sort of misunderstood monster banished to the deepest woods by the townsfolk. It was an accident. I just wanted a hug.

Anyhoo, If you think options are underpriced, you would like to buy them, right? Now, you have to decide whether to buy calls or puts. What if you don’t really have a strong opinion on the medium-term direction of the markets? This is where things get fun: you don’t NEED an opinion! You can buy both calls AND puts. Why limit yourself?

The basic strategy of buying both calls and puts is called either a “straddle” or a “strangle”. There is no beneficial difference between the two; a straddle means that the calls and puts share the same strike price, whereas with a strangle the strike prices are different. Here are some graphs (quickly downloaded off of the web) to illustrate:

This is a straddle:

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…and this is a strangle:

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(I need to mention, as I always do when I include graphs, that there are NO straight lines in options trading. Ever. This is simply to get the concept across, but the images you see in every options manual are inherently fictitious; though I’m just being fastidious).

As you can see, you are paying money out to buy the options, so if the stock doesn’t move, you’re in the hole for the amount you paid. If the stock moves big in either direction, you can profit.

Given that options prices are relatively cheap, your potential losses are lower. Furthermore, since you’re paying relatively less to set up the position, you need less of a move in the underlying for the trade to be profitable.

Of course, this all sounds great in theory, but in practice you have to pay fees to your broker and the bid-ask spread. I’m never comfortable in discussing multiple-legged transactions for these reasons, so if I may add a little piece of advice: make sure you do this on very liquid options. Liquidity, unfortunately, is a rare thing this side of the 49th parallel, so perhaps it would behoove you to do the trade down below where people like to characterise our country as being their head adornment.

Cheers!

Éric Wheatley, MBA, CIM

Associate Portfolio Manager, J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc.

eric@jchood.com

514.604.2829; 1.855.348.2829

*****************

Little known fact about John Charles Hood #59

Ohhhh… straddles? Yeah, this week’s little known fact should be easy to come up with. Sure. I just have to be subtle about it.

…aaaaaannd there’s no way to be subtle.

Seasonality for equity markets and sectors in the month of February

Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s Guide notes that from 1950 to 2011, February was the second worst performing month for the S&P 500 Index. The month also ranked fourth worst for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite Index. The TSX Composite Index performed much better. February was the fifth best performing month for the TSX Composite with an average return per period since 1985 of 0.9%.

Economically sensitive sectors were the best performers in February during the past 20 periods. Energy was the top performer followed by Materials and Consumer Discretionary. Weakest sectors were Telecom and Utilities. Best performing subsectors were Silver, Metals & Mining, Chemicals and Retail. Worst performing subsectors were Biotech, Pharmaceuticals and Software.image

 

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 31st 2013

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69 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday February 1st 2013”

  1. Tawny Says:

    Teresa

    Re EPV as per late night post yesterday. Something to think about as defensive for what is left of my Europe holdings. It looks like it will be an up day, but Russell futures showing weakness comparatively.

  2. Tawny Says:

    Migdu

    Re your post for me last night on HXT – thanks for the information… confirmed by guess – I was not able to find much on Horizon’s Web site…

  3. Tawny Says:

    Teresa

    Not sure if you took time to watch the BNN video link I posted. Wilbur Ross – some bottom line… likes Japan, keen on Ireland + bank, and is impressed by new Greek Gov’t. He thinks shipping has bottomed. Humour – he owns a Blackberry, wife owns iPad.

  4. Teresa Says:

    Hi Tawny:

    Thanks for sharing the information. Hasn’t get chance to watch the video you posted yet. Will do today.

  5. Tawny Says:

    Ciovacco on Twitter

    $SPX: Right now; not excited about being long; not excited about being short – big cash POS is fine for us until cleared up. RISK-REWARD

    Personally, I am just noting that money going into bonds, not good for bulls.

  6. tony Says:

    tawny

    which bond etf are you looking at.

  7. Tawny Says:

    Tony

    TLT that was at 9:57 am.. it got as high as $117.85 – now dropped – quite volatile, as is TZA.

    So, I am like Ciovacco, quite a lot of cash.. some longs and a bit of short.

  8. Tawny Says:

    Tony

    Slippery Silver – Argh!

  9. Tawny Says:

    Tony

    Just noting that 3 high risk stocks I follow have below average volumes and have been declining… feels to me that risk is coming off.

  10. tony Says:

    Yeah I know tawny

    SLV

    I sold at a profit but I missed this lousy up(neutral as I sold it a ferw pennies lower.)day
    but the funny thing is that the 18MA is trending higher so wonder if this isn’t just the bulls playing mind games with us.

    CNQ

    I got kicked out of cnq this morning and it seems that most

    But seems to me most stocks don’t know where to go,spx back near the 1510 area…I think we need the spx top show us the way if it can just break above the 1510 area loets say 1512 we could be in for a run.
    but there are certain fields that are breaking below the 18MA after a stellar quarter earnings report.

  11. tony Says:

    tawny

    i was just looking at a few us financials
    BAC just made a double bottom
    RF broke above resistance
    GS broke above resistance

    all this being said I think its time to go long the financial world since seasonality starts Jan 19th so we are alreadsy late to the party but we can still make up for it by chosing the right candidates.

  12. tony Says:

    Tawny

    seasonality oil isn’t ready we need to wait a few days or weeks (seasonality starts feb 25th so we can start looking for opportunities

  13. redsteve138 Says:

    question guys
    If the markets start going down from here would gold & silver follow the markets gld,slv ? I know the miners probably would but, do the commodities usually follow the market too ?

  14. tony Says:

    redsteve

    I will have to pass on this one, reason is simple, if this is a small correction no it won’t follow the market but if this is a bear taking control of the market then yes because then they won’t rely on any currency and the safest haven of them all is gld.

  15. Rol Lew Says:

    Red,
    Have a look at usa refiners too, ok.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?VLO,HES,WNR,TSO,CVI,RSG,HFC,MRO,MPC,CLMT,NTI,ALDW|D|A12,26,9

    Oil glut on the east coast. Lower feedstock costs.

  16. Tawny Says:

    Tony

    Re #12 – Yes, I am aware of that and have been actually selling the few energy holdings I have… holding on to HEE. I think I will be buying HAC to play out the seasonality stuff… I get whip-sawed and Don knows when to sell and when to hold.

    Anway, reminder, today is month-end/beg. month usual positive bias and money is flowing into RRSPs. Next week could be dramatically different. What happens – happens. I am heading out for a few hours.

  17. Rol Lew Says:

    Quite a few cdn e&p’s have been doing not much, for the last few mths
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XEG.TO,HOU.TO,SU.TO,WCP.TO,ECA.TO,CVE.TO,PBN.TO,hse.to,PWT.TO,CPG.TO,COS.TO,CNQ.TO|D|A12,26,9

  18. Freddebuoy Says:

    I hate being whipsawed! And my preferred trading method is as few trades as I can get away with. (I am a slavish follower of Don V.’s seasonal thesis and I like the newish addition of his Technical scoring system – see today’s blog).

    A few days ago, there were several posts in this space discussing overlays, indicators and oscillators. One that I am following more and more frequently is the weekly charts to determine the trend direction. And one of the overlays I use is Parabolic SAR.

    Here is a chart of the SPX. Notice that using SAR on the weekly chart that the trends last for reasonable lengths of time. For example, the current trend has been up for the past seven weeks. The shortest since 2009 was three weeks (twice) and both were down. Be interesting to figure out how much could have been made by trading on these signals vs. buy-and-hold.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p22315786929&a=281187979

    Here’s another chart of $SILVER. As many of us know, silver is a volatile commodity. But note how long the weekly trends last. And of particular note, see that the trend is down, and has been late October. Do you really want to hold silver? Day and swing traders, maybe.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p22315786929&a=216416001

    I am watching for an entry into the Canadian Industrial sector (it has been outperforming the US Industrials) (BMO has a new equal weighted ETF – ZIN.TO which was just introduced in November so I watch $SPTIN for any entry) but that is very overbought. Here is the $SPTIN weekly chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPTIN&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p22315786929&a=269920325

  19. Ken/AB Says:

    For those of you following oil, I have given up on the CNQ, CVE, COS – basically the heavy oil plays due to the price differential between WTIC and what these Canadian producers get. I have been into RMP,DTX,TOL,MEI and CPG – light oil plays. Less price differential with light oil. Happy trading.

  20. tony Says:

    FreddeB

    I was kicked out of all my trades this week made more then lost but its only chump change that I got for my efforts. its getting anoying to find which one stock will have me jumping up and down.

  21. kam Says:

    Hi Canuck,
    Any thoughts on ATP now? No other news on it other than it sold 3 Florida facilities?
    There quarterly earning might be due soon.I didn’t find any date so why is it dropping.Could this be inside thing and they might know if Dividend cut or something coming.Who knows with 9-10% div yield.

  22. Ana Says:

    I am thinking that today will be erased on Monday, like the chalk on an old school, blackboard at ‘home time’. :D

  23. Wayne Says:

    Freddebuoy,
    I only trade off weekly charts which illustrates the long term trend of the security you trade. In this case (GDM), I will only trade short,eventhough there are some good counter trend trades – sticking to the trend will keep you solvent in the long run.

    I have been long DUST in my partner’s account since October – no reason to trade NUGT – even when you get daily gaps in the other direction (like today) – it returns to the longer term trend. A lot more patient to trade this way – less stress.

    Here’s the chart I follow:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GDM&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57464526726

    Best!

  24. Tawny Says:

    Wayne

    Hi, nice to see you poke on board. Just wondering though, in your own trading account you stated (I believe) that you would not hold DUST or NUGT overnight, let alone for weeks! Just curious why these 2 different approaches ??

  25. mick/nv Says:

    re:atp.to

    Had a couple of price target cuts from cibc and rbc, not sure whether that has anything to do with the drop. The stock has been in a trading range the last couple of years, might be awhile until it get backs up there again. payout ratio is still quite high, tdw mentioned around 122%. They report on Feb 27th, they have only met or beat consensus estimates once in the past 2 years, might not make consensus this time either, who knows.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ATP.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p08771216779&a=291394920

  26. Doug Says:

    Bought some TBE down 16%

  27. Wayne Says:

    Tawney,
    I manage 2 accounts. A large one for my partner (US) and my own account (US/CDN). There are absolutely NO daytrades allowed in her account, so I trade longer term. I have BAC, a couple of other regional banks, good divvy stocks and an amount is set aside for higher vol plays (GDM).
    I day trade Dust and Nugt in my own account – and I follow the longer term chart. A good example of what I mean occured this morning when there was a gap up in the index. Convinced that the trend is still intact – I faded the gap by buying DUST near the open – and getting out shortly after 10:00. There were a couple of gaps up this week – and I added to her position at the open in each case- because the trend is down. Gets to be a bit schizo from time to time buying long term and micro-term – but as long as the weekly continues to head down – the short trade will continue to be a winner.

    I “poked” in to see what was up – noticed that you were planning a trip to Az. I am seriously considering a trip furthur south – San Miguel de Allende, Mexico. I know it well – fabulour artists community.

    Best!

  28. Freddebuoy Says:

    Doug – too bad about TBE. There was a press release yesterday and here’s the sentence that caused all the damage:

    “When combined with the significant downtime experienced in January the Company’s expected Q1 production has been reduced to approximately 17,100 boe per day from 18,400 boe per day. Cash flow will be impacted by the lower production level and the historically wide differentials currently being experienced and is now anticipated to be $30.5 million for Q1. Including our dividend and a reduced capital plan for the quarter the all in payout ratio will be maintained at 100 percent or less.”

    Consistent with my policy of checking the weekly chart first before hitting the “buy” button, here’s the weekly chart for TBE.TO:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBE.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p22315786929

  29. kam Says:

    Mick/Nvan,
    re-atp
    Message understood Sir!
    When One sell it for $12.90 +divi., $11.50 is going to look pretty cheap,human nature.But Price is truth.they know something which we don’t.
    But I am getting better at controlling temptation. Much better than last year. I haven’t bought HGU even at This low price of 6.30-40,lol. I have plan to buy at 5.70 close to $40 GDX lately but subject to change any moment.
    Say Hi to our official “gap-master”. Haven’t seen him much. May ask about what are FR and SLW upto lately.

  30. StagDeflation Says:

    ATP? Likely a downgrade but also is their a prospect for a distribution cut?
    They always seem to be running around the 100% payout ratio … unsustainable!

  31. Hniel Says:

    Hi Kam, NTR who’s your play on Sunday. Will you be doing a performance dance like Ray Lewis when he comes out? haha. I’m an former 49 fan so likely go there. I have some ATP and I thought maybe the possible distribution cut may be baked into the price, at least I hope so. OH, boring but been accumulating some MFI over the last month. Think something good will happen there. Take care. Hniel/Kingston

  32. Neil AB Says:

    Congrats to HAC on hitting another all time high today.

  33. Hniel Says:

    Yes Neil AB, is nice to see considering the lack of performance in 2012. I love it. Happy I didn’t bail out. Hniel/Kingston

  34. Neil AB Says:

    Hniel
    I’ve been into HAC since inception and have added to my position in the down times. I have found it frustrating from time to time, but, in the big picture, check out the chart. Beautiful lower left to upper right with minimum volitility (ok, so would be nice if the chart had a little steeper incline…lol).

  35. mick/nv Says:

    Re:HAc

    Nice looking chart, tiny yield though. In slow times like 2012, would be nice to get paid to wait, i think there are better places to put your money.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HAC.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p15952723849

  36. Neil AB Says:

    Ana
    Re:22
    Certainly could happen – I actually thought today would be another big downer – got up early to check the o/n futures with a view to putting an inverse on – surprised again!
    What I see is that TSX is at a fairly strong resistance level. If you check a three year chart look at Oct/Nov 10, late Aug 11 and late Feb 12 you’ll see a lot of activity here. The tsx just recently poked through these levels but then came back (shows best on weekly chart)- not encouraging. The market (tsx), depending on who you listen to could still go either way from here. We are, IMHO, right on the cusp. What I kind of expect is that the uncertainty at this point is going to cause greater daily swings (like yesterday and today) than we have been seeing recently and I don’t think that bodes well for the short term.
    We have done very well over the last while and I think it would not be a bad idea, just going by the charts, to take some profits and see what happens.

  37. Neil AB Says:

    mick/nv
    Point well taken. Certainly, the lack of Div and therefore Div growth is one of the frustrating aspects that I mentioned. Also, certainly, one can, in retrospect, look at a number of stocks/ sectors that have outperformed HAC and perhaps provided divs (while you wait)… (Enbridge, IPL, telus, whatever etc.). The difficulty comes in looking “in retrospect”. To my mind (small as it may be) HAC, as a core holding, and going forward, removes a lot of the uncertainty which may be associated with some of these other holdings. It provides relatively non-volitile growth over time. It may not catch the flavour of the day, and it may not pay the divs. some do, but, as a long term core holding, I find it has been relatively rewarding.
    I certainly agree with you that for short term trading there are better places to be. But, if I had to choose between HAC and any dividend paying stock/sector you might mention, long term, I think I would be hard pressed to pick whatever stock you come up with.
    The above aside, I’m certainly willing to change, on a moments notice, my views. I’m not in love with HAC. I don’t have any emotional or otherwise attachment to them. I’m quite prepared to jump ship.

    I would really appreciate your advice as to where a better long term alternitive lies.

    Thanks
    Neil

  38. Hniel Says:

    Re HAC, I look at it as a nice part (4%) of a portfolio as it moves in and out of positions to compliment my own long positions. I think that makes sense as long as it goes up enough to cover the management cost. jmo. Hniel/Kingston

  39. mick/nv Says:

    Neil AB/Hniel

    If you think that HAC should be part or core of your portfolio that is fine, we all have different investment styles. Seasonality can mean that you can be mostly in cash for a period of time, cash earns nothing. All investments can go thru pullbacks on occasion , assuming the pullback isn’t a start of a downtrend, then i believe you should be compensated for your capital being tied up. HAC’s dividend is almost non-existent so i consider it ( my opinion only ) a poor investment. I own very few etf’s but i would prefer an xtr.to ( which i do own) over HAC, the chart is just as nice , has a 5.7% yield and distributes it’s dividend monthly.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XTR.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p88183980884

    I do prefer stocks, t.to and enb.to as mentioned by Neil above are two of my core holdings, i have been rewarded well holding these.

  40. Neil AB Says:

    Mick/NV
    Quite interesting. xtr is actually my second biggest holding. I have it in both my rrsp and my investment account. I think it is a great place to be (tho’ I’m concerned about the tax reporting in my non-rrsp account – we’ll see how that works out). So, in some ways we are quite on the same page.
    But, sorry, though seasonality can, I suppose, mean being in cash from time to time, and thus yield basically nothing, it is better than losing a bunch. It depends on the timing. Seasonality doesn’t necessarily though mean going to cash but rather switching into non-cyclical sectors (ie. consumer staples through the summer) when the cyclicals have run there course.
    Divs are great but, basically, if your div is 5% and you lose 6% on your capital, where are you?
    So, I run HAC, XTR and the Ishares Pref Fund (don’t recall the ticker) as essentially my cores (with a couple of stocks (keyera, algonquin, emera)) thrown in the mix. I think they compliment each other and provide both growth and some income. I trade the balance of my portfolio. I would not trade my HAC for more XTR (especially given XTR’s REIT exposure). In fact, in the face of potentially increasing interest rates, (given its REIT and bond exposure)I would sell my XTR way before my HAC. But then, as you say, perhaps we have different investment styles.

  41. mick/nv Says:

    Neil AB

    I agree, there is no advantage in yield where your capital loss would be far greater. This is why I would stay away from stocks such as pgf, erf, bnp, pwt and i am sure a multitude of others that some here have recommended . When you lose 20 to 50% of your capital, a 9% yield is little consolation. Unless some extreme catalyst occurs, that capital may never be recovered. But as mentioned , we all have our investment styles, if it works for you that is all that matters. Have a good weekend.

  42. kam Says:

    Hniel,
    NTR,
    Yep , Harbaughbowl is coming. But I still have no feeling about it. Actually I use to like 49ers too.I vividly remember watching 49ers and seahawks back in early 90’s and that might be my first football game I ever watched. Only thing I remember Steve Young throwing a pass,That’s it.I don’t mind if they win. I hope colin Kaepernik Is not one year wonder and so do Wilson in Seattle.I have to be somewhere till 530pm so will only be able to watch second half :( . Oh well, This look like a game any team can win. Might be a game for ages or just boring.

    How about luongo in Vancouver? I don’t watch too much hockey but I just had feeling that Canucks fans gonna miss him big time if he is gone.( maybe too much trading contrarian built into that,lol) Cory is a good goalie and people think he can be #1 but I am not so sure yet. I am not the one doing a back flip here but last year everyone was thinking Cory is much better than Luongo. I hope we run with both of them.Time is running out on Canucks maybe 2 more years. “Maple laughs” will soon start creeping up on them,lol. But They could just turn out be gold stock’s bull-trap lately. :)
    Good night,later

  43. Neil AB Says:

    mick/nv
    just wondering, do you hold any of your xtr in non-reg account? If so, as I fear reporting may be a bit of a hassle (got enough troubles, don’t want to run afoul of the gman) – being part bonds, therefore interest, and part divies – depending on how they break it down for us we may have to conflab about that.
    Good w/e. Go Patriots (???).

  44. mick/nv Says:

    Neil AB

    I happen to hold it in my rrsp, not by design, just circumstance as that is where I had some extra cash at that time.

  45. Hniel Says:

    Hi Neil and Mick, when you wake up (slackers out west) looking at HAC in my acct. this am over coffee rather surprised me. In the little over a year I have owned it, it’s up approx.1$. Looking at the profit, 2/3rds has been eaten by fees. Hmm, I would have made more than double with an average paying div. stock, say 4.5 to 5 %. Kind of changes my mind on it. Have a good day. Hniel/Kingston

  46. Hniel Says:

    RE:#42 NTR Hi Kam, I’m just as happy Toronto didn’t press the idea of getting Luongo. I don’t follow hockey too much, even though i played organized into late teens. Can’t watch a game for fear of having to listen to don cherry, and I’ve started enjoying woman’s figure skating much more, not all the pads and helmets and the ladies skating attire just looks more interesting..LOL. Have a good day and enjoy at least the last half Sunday. Hniel/Kingston

  47. Tawny Says:

    Wayne

    Thanks for explaining how you both day trade and trend trade. I had thought you had felt that the leveraged plays should never be held overnight – I get the idea how you treat both.

    Re San Miguel – I have been researching this place a little – sending you an e-mail!

  48. mick/nv Says:

    Hniel

    I guess it all depends on what you are looking for in your investments. We all want to make money , sometimes that can be hard as not all our picks may work out as expected. The decision then becomes should we hold or free up our capital. If the decision is to hold, if just for the simple reason you feel that the investment is consolidating, not entering a downtrend, then my view is you should be compensated. My personal opinon is that does not occur holding Hac, so why would I hold it. I would rather hold something like CBO.to (I don’t own it), nicer chart, 4% yield. Of course timing is everything.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CBO.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p72979724299

  49. Teresa Says:

    A very good article to read:

    http://stockcharts.com/members/analysis/20130202-1.html

  50. Migdu Says:

    Mick/Nv
    The price data that Stockcharts has for CBO.to does not match that of Yahoo. It’s a very different story; showing a slight downtrend over the past 4 years. Interesting anomaly in data sets.

  51. Tawny Says:

    Teressa Re #49

    Cannot get the link without paid subscription.
    I could really use “your” view on ETFs that we have on our horizon at the moment. Such as TMV, TZA, IRE and other Europe ETFs. My Asia “to buy” list also went back up.
    I hope I do not miss a lot of more “upside” but I do not want to lose on my holdings…

    Question to consider and mull over – has the market now had a breakout that will keep going north for awhile longer… or are we set up for a big pull back. Oh, where is that crystal ball?

    Okay, Teresa, no crystal ball, but what are you seeing in the charts… I will explore these myself of course. Concern abut weekly charts at this point, they can reverse quickly.

  52. Ken/AB Says:

    NTR

    Tawny; You have expressed interest in a less expensive area to retire. Attached is a link to an article in the National Post that may interest you.

    http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/02/small-towns-can-offer-big-savings-for-retirees/

  53. Tawny Says:

    Ken/AB

    RE #52 NTR

    Ken, thanks for that. I have saved this in my Retirement file.
    BTW, Kingston, is also relatively inexpensive… but I am not comfortable with the climate. Halifax I think I would like very much in the good months but would have to get out of there for winter and that becomes expensive, mostly in terms of medical coverage for Southern US.

    I am now “exploring” the idea of outside of Victoria, and what would be spent on accommodation there could be saved in terms of not having such need to get out of the cold, as winters there are short and very bearable. Most of my small family live in B.C. and friends too. I would only want a 2 bedroom apt/condo/town-home kind of accommodation… less work, less money.

    Anyone remember the area that Canuck was exploring – on Vancouver Island – as I recall, he is planning to sell and move somewhere else nearby.

    Anyway these are all thoughts and I have to be patient and make the right decision.
    Articles and other’s thoughts most appreciated. Actually I am sure I am not the only one on the board considering the subject.

    Here is link again to Money Sense Mag. study of best places to retire in Canada, already living in the #1, but I still don’t like the weather. Best weather in Canada is Saanich (Victoria)

    http://list.moneysense.ca/rankings/best-places-to-live/2012/for-retire/Default.aspx?sp2=1&sc1=0&d1=a

  54. mick/nv Says:

    Migdu

    StockCharts adjust their data for dividends , yahoo finance does not. You can draw your own charts using yahoo finance data by looking at historical prices and the adjusted close price, you will get the same result as what is seen on StockCharts .

  55. Mavis Says:

    Hi Tawny:

    I lived in Victoria for 3 yrs ’till 2011. I’d purposely looked for a place in the city that was walkable and had lots of trees and parks, which for me was as far south (best weather, best views) as I could afford and a townhouse that would allow pets (2d&2c).

    Are you familiar with mls.ca and goolemaps – streetview? With mls.ca you can find out what’s for sale and get all the details. Using streetview you can snoop around the address and get a picture of what the location is really like. All this from across the country!

  56. Teresa Says:

    Tawny:

    #49 – It’s a Market Message of John Murphy from Stock Markets. Some interesting points regarding the markets. Here are some summry:

    LONG-TERM PENDULUM SWINGS BACK TO STOCKS… With confidence in global stocks strengthening (and a likely “great rotation” out of bonds into stocks just starting), stocks should become the most favored asset class in the years ahead. Industrial commodities like copper and oil should benefit (along with stocks tied to them). Treasuries will probably be the biggest losers. Gold may benefit from a falling dollar to some extent, but probably won’t do nearly as well as it did over the last decade because of rising stock values. As I suggested on Thursday, deflationary pressures (mainly coming from Japan) have dominated intermarket trends over the last decade, as well as Fed policy. A resurgent Japanese stock market (and tumbling yen) may be signalling a more reflationary global environment in the coming years. That would favor stocks and commodities over bonds. Rising Treasury bond yields in the years ahead should also dampen the appeal for gold.

  57. Tawny Says:

    Mavie

    Re #55 – NTR

    Thank you, thank. WOW, this is amazing we can exchange so much more than investing info! NO, I had not thought of mls.ca and goolemaps. Great idea. BUT, I am not so sure I will be wanting to buy should I decide on Victoria or anywhere. I have read that it is much better to rent initially and explore before buying. Thoughts on that :

    1) I bought our current home in Kingston with never having physicaly seen it… of course I did a lot of research, saw photos, explored, etc. and the place I selected is super and our community is in very high demand – do it can be done.

    2) The reason I did that was we were travelling across country with 2 small dogs and would have to put our furnishings in storage and rent a place that would allow dogs… challenging! Actually the same problems may still apply. hmmm.

    3) I will explore using your suggestions. But this time I may fly there first to explore.

    I am seeking pretty much the same as you were seeking including pets allowed.. Gee, how come you left Victoria? and are you sorry you did?

  58. Tawny Says:

    Teresa

    Thanks for #56. Interest, but of course longer term views. Not what is going to happen near term. I have been waiting to profit from money out of bonds thus my interest in TMV… just unsure as we might get a temporary pullback now. Of course, since so many expect that and, markets being so perverse, they may continue to climb for awhile yet.

    Did you get Swanson’s latest?

    Hope you will be able to get back to me later on your charting of stocks we have both been following.

  59. Teresa Says:

    Tawny:

    – TZA Weely Chart: I stopped out this Friday. Will re-enter soon?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZA&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43348546418&listNum=19&a=286756539

  60. Teresa Says:

    Tawny:

    – TMV Weekly Chart: I will keep hold it until the trend change on MACD Hist.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TMV&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16314821283&listNum=19&a=291132678

  61. Teresa Says:

    Tawny:

    – For all Euro/Asian stocks we are following, I am currently waiting for the pull backs and will re-enter them once the signals are there.

    GREK – I noticed that there is a bearish div. between the price and MACD Hist and also RSI(Minor). See the chart here:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GREK&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62949117923&listNum=25&a=282086039

    – I got Swanson’s latest. No detail information yet. Seems he is bullish on Shipping sector.

  62. kam Says:

    Hi Hniel,
    NTR
    Just came home to watch Superbowl and Ravens Turned the lights out,lol. Look like this might turn out be a blowout as I expected Rather than a game for ages. Only thing for 49ers is power outage which might help them as Ravens might lose momentum. What an embarrassment for Saints and NFL.

  63. Ana Says:

    Hi kam,
    NTR
    I do not think it is an embarrassment. What do the Saints have to do with it? This is a great come back story for a city that has dealt with so much hardship.
    What about a snow storm or rain storm during the Grey Cup game? This just makes it more exciting. Athletes have to deal with different situations, the winner will be the winner.

  64. Hniel Says:

    Hey Kam, NTR… I lost interest in the game a while ago and dozed off… maybe a few extra stoli and remember I am on eastern time, sheesh I woke up and suddenly it’s a game. Must get back to it. Take care. Hniel/Kingston

  65. kam Says:

    Ana,
    re-63
    Well, they are the hosts and responsible for all the stuff including electricity overload,security,sewer back up(all toilets flush at same time during half time,lol). Who else is responsible? What Katrina has to do with this?
    What has hardship of a city which was natural cause have to do with lights out at a stadium 7 years after that?It didn’t happen yesterday or a month ago. Don’t take me wrong here.I am not pushing that very bad Katrina situation aside.
    Rain and snow are natural causes which no one have control over.Electricity in a stadium is your responsibility. Only way you might NOT control it is if lights are out at in all New Orleans.You might get rain and snow next year Superbowl in Newyork . I won’t complain.

    On the game side it turned out from a dud to a super game regardless of the cause.4th and goal and game can be over with 1 first down.It might come down to a hail-marry too.

  66. kam Says:

    Hniel,
    ravens just ran around for safety and wasted 8 seconds. Ya what a game since I started watching it,lol. Look like your 49ers and Randy moss might not win,:( . But Ray lewis and even Ed reed might go out as winners Unless there is a kick return or some miracle.
    Take care.and stay awake for 1 more play.

    RAvens WON

  67. Hniel Says:

    Hi Kam, yes, exciting ending. Can’t believe I dozed off in 4th quarter?? Have a good evening and celebrate safely.LOL Hniel/Kingston

  68. kam Says:

    Hi Ana,
    Just adding to #65:-

    ” The NFL issued a statement saying, “Stadium authorities are investigating the cause of the power outage. We will have more information as it becomes available.” But Entergy, which supplies power to the Superdome, tweeted to say, “Power issue at the Super Dome appears to be in the customer’s side. Entergy is providing power to the Dome. At all times, our distribution & transmission feeders were serving Superdome. We continue working w/ Superdome to address any issues.”

    Hniel,
    Yes good ending.Good night back to business tomorrow .

  69. doug Says:

    Freddebuoy
    thank you. I had some down 16%. Then bought some after it had been down last Friday. Scotiaitrade recommended to buy this stock after its down this much. Anyway I pray.

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