Tech Talk for Thursday February 7th 2013

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday February 7th

U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures are unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Index futures weakened slightly following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for weekly initial jobless claims was 360,000 versus 368,000 last week. Actual was 366,000. Consensus for fourth quarter productivity was a decline of 1.5%. Actual was a decline of 2.0%.

The Bank of England maintained its overnight lending rate at 0.5% and the European Central Bank maintained its overnight lending rate at 0.75%.

U.S. retailers are expected to open higher following release of higher than expected same store sales in January.

Johnson & Johnson fell $0.39 to $75.00 after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock from Neutral to Underperform

Akamai Technology plunged $7.23 to $34.35 after Janney Capital downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. The company also reported lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues.

Blackberry gained $0.47 to $16.52 after Wells Fargo updated the stock from Market Perform to Outperform.

Visa fell $2.04 to $158.78 after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform.


Technical Watch

Akamai Technolgies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) – $34.35 plunged 17.4% after the company reported less than consensus fourth quarter revenues. The stock has a negative technical profile at the opening. Intermediate trend changed from up to down on a break below support at $39.00. The stock will break below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages at the opening. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-December. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.



Interesting Charts

Nice breakout by Platinum yesterday above resistance at $1,734.50 per ounce. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. ‘Tis the season!


Encouraging break by XOP above resistance at $59.34! Outperformance continues. ‘Tis the season!



Weekly Select Sector SPDRs Review


· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

· Short term momentum indicators are neutral.



· Intermediate trend is up. Resistance has formed at $39.87.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned from neutral to negative

· Short term momentum indicators are trending down.


Consumer Discretionary

· Intermediate trend is up. Resistance is forming at $50.98.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from positive to neutral

· Short term momentum indicators are trending down.



· Intermediate trend is up. Resistance has formed at $40.91.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

· Short term momentum indicators are rolling over from overbought levels.



· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative the S&P 500 Index remains neutral (with early signs of turning positive

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought



· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought.


Consumer Staples

· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from neutral to positive

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought.


Health Care

· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought.



· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought.



Thackray’s 2013 Investment Guide

Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s Guide is here. Order through , Amazon, Chapters or Books on Business.


Special Free Services available through is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.

To login, simply go to

Following is an example:

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Industry Seasonal Chart



Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. image

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC February 6th 2013


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66 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday February 7th 2013”

  1. tony Says:

    to all

    maybe someone wiser then me can respond to this.

    FXI just broke below the 50MA but the Yen as been moving lower should we be concerned?

    because lets face it, having the yen moving lower means Japan can export more, and by doing so stimulating their economy but that means the rest of asia isn’t working and the growth is in the rest of asia…

  2. tony Says:


    I taught MFC missed on earnings,,, but are praised as its up 2% tck is being beaten up.

    this is a lucky hand stock picker marathon.

    we are better off picking etfs were we have a basket of securities then playing individual names.

  3. Tawny Says:


    Re #2 – see Akam above, plunged! Why I call stocks SHOCKS! But to each their own.
    Re #1 – just took position in FXP ultra short China

  4. Teresa Says:


    Do you mind sharing the price you got for FXP?

  5. Brian/ON Says:

    Tony / Tawny – Once again, TCK got hit on earnings news, which beat the street expectations, but were still massively lower than previous. Another reminder about the difficulty in holding over earnings announcements. Obviously, this would be avoided by holding an ETF, generally.

  6. tony Says:

    I got reapplied for my membership on stockcharts

    and as I was looking at a few charts. I forgot to look at something that had me slightly worried…

    here is the 1hr chart and see for yourself the double top(it may be short lived).$SPX&p=60&b=5&g=0&id=p28910720283&a=292040902

  7. mick/nv Says:


    People who don’t subscribe will not be able to see this chart.

  8. tony Says:

    tawny/brian on

    tck has been in the dog house since jan 28th (as it has been trading under the 18MA).

  9. tony Says:

    Oh darn forgot about that fact.

    thx mick

    well simply said if you look at a 1hr chart we can clearly see a double top was formed on the spx at 1515 made on 02-01 and 02-05.

    and now spx has broken below the 18MA and the 50MA in the last hour.

    so long bulls be cautious.

  10. Tawny Says:


    I am not a subscriber and I can see your chart! Thanks. Seems more weakness in Asia and Europe at the moment.

  11. Tawny Says:


    I bought only half FXI at $17.98 in case it dropped lower, but I then purchased balance at $18.23… It has been on buy sig. for 2 days with UpTrend… could be short lived so I will place my sell for half per those charts.

    Also bought a full position in EDZ – also on UpT. buy sig.

    I don’t worry about a few pennies here and there as if I wait I generally pay more :)

  12. Teresa Says:


    Thanks. Did you use the Daily signal from uptrend?

  13. Tawny Says:


    Yes, daily sig. For Leveraged I kind of find the weekly signals a little too late… but I also look at the Intermediate Chart #5… which is why I did not buy first day of daily signal.

  14. CJ Says:

    Tawney #10

    Yes! I squeaked out of EPV for a few pennies. Still holding my Euro bear EUO it has a long way to go yet.

  15. Tawny Says:


    I would be cautious in hoping the EUO will get back to what you paid for it. Europe has definitely improved. Hope you don’t mind my saying this – it is of course just an opinion.

    I hold a little EPV as a hedge against the small Europe holdings I kept.

  16. CJ Says:

    TAWNEY #15

    Well aware it will not get too far and just looking to get out with as little damage as I can.

    NTR: Gord’s chemo cancelled this week to allow his mouth to heal etc….
    50% drop in PSA so nasty as it is – it is working!

  17. Teresa Says:


    #13 – Thanks.

  18. Tawny Says:


    NTR: Re Gord – so glad to hear that and I hope he is feeling a little better from the treatment.

  19. Tawny Says:


    Check out this heat map… not looking too good!

  20. Deb Says:

    Tony or others who may be in SLW,

    I am in SLW for a seasonal play – I know it is up on news from Tuesday – and with silver down wondering what others are thinking about this stock. Hold or take profit now. To me it is breaking out of it’s trading range – so maybe worth holding?

    Have a stop loss in below 18 MA.


  21. CJ Says:

    TAWNEY #18 NTR

    Oh my, no, he is not feeling better at all; the side effects have been rough, although pain has lessened.
    Heart rate irregular and weak, makes him feel jittery and weak too.
    Gonna get his hair buzzed to reduce the mess of falling hair! Hope the extra week helps him feel strong enough to go through it all again!

  22. Tawny Says:

    Intersting chart from Cioavvo$CYC:$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83704143599&a=290743228

  23. tony Says:

    Hi CJ

    nice to hear that gord is responding well to treatment.

    EUO didn’t you buy this in the 22$ range?

  24. tony Says:

    Oh sorry cj…

    I taught you meant by its working that the treatment is working,,,

  25. Freddebuoy Says:

    GIL.TO has a “very good” earnings report yesterday, beating estimates by .02. Yet it started down on January 29th and is down 3.72% today. Go figure!

    Tony, SPX seems to be trying to find its top at about 1504 to 1515 in the last five sessions and decide if it wants to go over. Equity Clock suggests the index should drop from about the middle of February until the first of March. Is it early this year or is this just the normal fluctuations?

  26. tony Says:


    what time frame are you using…

  27. Deb Says:


  28. tony Says:


    I think the last few quarters everything is either early or late…

    I was in the camp a move above 1513 was good, but after hours of head scratching I think for this market to move north from here has to open in the area 1513-1515 and move north.

    my 1hr chart on the tsx shows that it has been having trouble getting over the 12775(50MA) area but at the same time this would be an ascending triangle since feb 1st so we either break above it or break below

    but at the same time we are trading below the 18MA and the 18MA is currently below the 50MA. amd oscillators are trending south…

    Also note that dow has also made a double top

  29. Deb Says:

    Tony – just looked at the weekly chart – gives a different perspective. $40 looks like resistance. Having trouble going above 37 now.

  30. tony Says:


    If you are to look at the weekly chart you can stay on a daily chart and see the chart says about the same thing (sept-nov) as it traded between 40-41 area top.

    weekly chart shows a cup and handle a little skewed but its there need to break above 38.65 for it to move north from here. 33.86(50WeeklyMA) is your support.

    on my hourly chart I would accept a 25cents pull below the 18MA 50MA before exiting. as it has been a winner since Jan 28th by trending higher on the 18MA. with minor pullback underneath the 18MA (with the lowest drop less then 25 cents below the 18MA) so put for safety put 26 cents.

    problem with silver I read yesterday JPM has 25-30 short interest in the metal. and their is a class action suit on them but it has been dismissed.

  31. Ken Says:

    What do most on the board here use for sell stops, (ma, %, Pivot points, or specific numbers for each stock/etf?) thanks

  32. Freddebuoy Says:

    Deb, here’s SLW.TO on a daily chart, all marked up. Good call. I may just put in a buy order.

  33. Ana Says:

    HND.TO is really moving today, might be a 10 to 12% day.

  34. CJ Says:

    Tony #23

    EUO (including comm.) 23.03 :( it may never return!

    Yes, the treatment works as far as the cancer is concerned, but it goes everywhere else too and causes other problems – we walk a fine line.

  35. Ana Says:



    NTR: Glutamine has helped with Chemotherapy treatments, especially inflamation of the mouth (stomatitis). Happy to see the PSA drop! Sorry to hear about the real difficult reactions, it is very hard to deal with this for both the one who has the cancer and the support person.

    This is a link for Glutamine, please check with your doctor:

  36. Deb Says:

    Tony & Freddybuoy,

    Thank-you both for your help. Have moved the stop loss higher. It is such a high beta stock – easy to get stopped out.


  37. Brian/ON Says:

    Deb – Freddebuoy re SLW.

    I must be missing something on the SLW chart. From what I can see has hit highs of $37 even 4 times since november, and one other time where it came up closer to $38, in mid-December It looks to me that it is still in the same range, short of a solid break above $37.00. What am I missing on this chart?

  38. Teresa Says:


    Do you plan to add more TZA today?

  39. Freddebuoy Says:

    You are absolutely right, Brian/ON. There is much risk in SLW.TO. The price today has broken above the $36.96 reached on Jan 28th (one day hardly makes a trend) and it still has to break $37.80 from December 12th to say nothing of the $41 back in November. But, the price is now above the 4, 9, 18 and 50 MA. Important, too. And as the previous chart (#31) shows, the trend lines are all positive. That’s the interesting thing about TA – you’ve got lots of things to choose from. Using Don V.’s rating system, it rates a 3 – the season is now, there is at least a short term uptrend, its above the 20 MA and it leading the index (in the chart, the SPX) but it leads the TSX by 22.58% as well.

  40. kam Says:

    have anyone noticed that when spx moves up end of the day everyday,Gdx will come down to close.what does that mean? maybe if spx start falling then gold/stocks might start moving up?Or it could be that it is another false bottom and it will suck more bulls in and spit them out around $40 or lower. Any comments?

    Also Hnd looked good today.Now we have to watch if natgas runs more lower and break bottom.Another 2-3 days might tell.Uptrendline is around 3.18 or so from last low of $1.90.

  41. Tawny Says:


    Re #38 – TZA is not really on a buy sig. with UpT yet and as small caps seem to be strong – tis the season (as Don says) – I only hold a small portion. I have enough bear for now I think. What about you – what bears are you in now?

  42. Tawny Says:


    Just a note : Consumer staples stronger today than small caps; a message on hows the markets feel about risk at the moment.

  43. Freddebuoy Says:

    Kam, interesting observation, $SPX:GDX. There is positive correlation but very low on average; about .25 over one year but currently negative at -.83. GDX has more correlation to $GOLD but even then, only about .75 and .58 currently. Based on the current correlation, something is out of sinc. Watch for a reversal to the norm.

  44. Rami/AB Says:

    Hi Tawny,
    It seems Chris Ciovacco is expecting VIX might just jump higher very quickly as per his Tweets, atleast thats what I understood from the tweets, is that right?
    I know you follow him.

  45. Tawny Says:


    I follow Chris Tweets but I did not pick that up re the VIX high jumping but of course it is possible. I know you like to play the volatility. Depends on news out of Europe.

    The markets are edgy right now and Europe is once again the catalyst that could push them over the cliff, or not, IMHO. A two day summit is underway… that is the focus.

  46. Teresa Says:


    #41 – I only have TZA and EPV now and 70% cash. Thinking about SPXU.

  47. Tawny Says:

    Here is an interesting outlook from a source I have great respect for..

  48. Pat Says:

    History shows that U.S. equity markets in the year after a Presidential election move higher into the first week in February in conjunction with fourth quarter reports, weaken thereafter until the end of March and moves higher thereafter. Given political events scheduled in the U.S. during the next two months, history is repeating.

  49. Brian/ON Says:


    Thanks for the explanation on the SLW info.

  50. Pat Says:


    My post at #48 is copied from Techtalk chart Monday Feb. 4 with chart there. The chart shows that the S&P in an average year backs off a little through Feb. then goes up Mar. beginning. In the post election yr. moves as described above.

  51. mick/nv Says:

    Re: #50

    It also shows that on avg., most of Jan. is a down month, that is not even close to what happened this time, in other words, seasonality doesn’t always work as expected.$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p11180754566

  52. Rami/AB Says:

    Sorry I think I was wrong its someone else who tweeted this on Chris Ciovacco twitter he said “@CiovaccoCapital $VIX making a nice rounded bottom on 30min chart (over past weeks) , break above 14.5-15 would set it on fire.” but I know that Chris Ciovacco is weating for the bears and waiting for the VIX to spike as a confirmation for the market going down.

  53. Neil AB Says:

    Sorry, this might be kind of long, but thought it interesting. I’m editing as much as I can to make it as short as possible.
    Excerpt from Commentary in the Edmonton Journal this morning:
    “With U.S. stock market indexes at lofty heights in the wake of January’s big rally, corporate insiders are hitting the sell button. That doesn’t mean a stock market pullback…But for some it’s a troubling sign, since a pickup in insider selling often coincides with market peaks.
    For the week ended last Friday, insider selling hit an extreme level, reports the Vickers Weekly Insider, a New York based publication…Senior executives and directors…dumped 9.2 shares for every share they bought.
    “”In almost perfect coordination with an equity market that was rushing toward new all-time highs, insider sentiment has weakened sharply” Vickers said.”…The insider sentiment reading is now at its lowest level since late March 2012, which coincides with the peak of a previous market rally…that was followed by a steep three-month correction…”
    However, “Here in Canada, it’s a completely different story. Insiders continue to snap up shares even as the index climbs…”

    Not saying that it means anything, just thought I would share for interests sake.

  54. Tawny Says:


    NTR: Regarding your thinking about getting a canine pal. As a dog lover and owner just want to say a couple of thing

    1) Please think about what this will do to your lifestyle… dogs are wonderful pals in every way but they do tie you down…. big time! Love our dogs but sometimes wish I had not made the decision to get them (over 10 years ago)

    2) In considering a breed – there are books that “show and tell” each breed and reveal their particular traits and requirements… purebreds are easier to be certain of character than mutts.

    3) If you are looking for a wonderful big dog that doesn’t shed – the eal deal is a Poodle – so smart, so loyal, so expensive to buy and maintain!

    4) A male friend just stated to me a few days ago – I didn’t know I wanted a LAP DOG until I got one (actually wifey got it for him). LOL

    Just my 4 paws worth!

  55. Tawny Says:


    P.S. to #54. #4 – a miniature poodle is his lap dog. I had one too many years ago. Oh what a wonderful pet she was!

  56. Neil AB Says:

    Re: Presidential first year vis a vis the market
    Been quite a bit of chatter on here about this. I’m wondering if anyone (tech talk?) has found a study relating the first year of the second term of a presidency to the market? I’ve looked but couldn’t find anything. It seems to me that it may well be that the dynamics are quite different for a new pres and a second term president such as we now have.

  57. Neil AB Says:

    NTR (in the extreme)
    Many thanks for your suggestions.
    I’m not sure that I actually have what most would consider a “life style” – so I think I’d be ok there. Though, I guess, if I got a dog that didn’t like to see its owner sleeping a lot that could be a problem.
    Also, while appreciating your suggestions, I’m just not sure that I am secure enough in my masculinity to go the lap dog, or even poodle, route. I just have problems seeing myself walking some tiny little sub cat size creature dressed in booties, a scarf and a little hat that says “I yap whenever I want”. And that goes for the dog too.
    Kidding aside, I do travel alot so that is a real concern ( and is why I’ve only had cats for the last number of years – they just don’t care if your there or not as long as they have food, warmth and the occassional mouse they are happy). Shedding is an issue because my vaccuum broke a couple of years ago and I refuse to pay like $300 for a new one – though I can see that the shed would make the floors softer to walk on…- Sorry, I’m kidding again … my wife has allergy problems (mostly to me!).
    Anyway, very kind of you to take the time to consider my plight – or at least one of them – you must be a very nice person – despite my kind of making fun in the above I really appreciate it.

  58. Tawny Says:


    Real #56 _ click on link in #47 – click on Research – voila – all presidential years, year by year. Don’t know how to cut/paste from tablet.

  59. Tawny Says:


    Real #58- you are a character! And yes it takes security in masculinity to be seen on the other end of a leash with a poodle!

  60. Neil AB Says:

    Entrec (ent.v)
    Might be worth a look. I don’t own it, looking at it. Small cap heavy equipment operator. Coming off a bit of an exaggerated (not classic) cup and handle formation. Seems to have good momentum. Been picked by a couple of newsletter types. Looks to me like if it breaks 1.75 or so and holds, next res. is around 1.95. If breaks that, could be really good, if doesn’t you’re still looking at short term 15-20%. Has to get through that 1.75 though. Just a thought.

  61. kam Says:

    Hi Tawny,Hniel,

    here is my dog. Not a lap one. Brother bought it 2 years ago. Didn’t have one before here but everyone likes it now. Is a sweet one even if it is a ‘Staffordshire Bull Terrier”.He searched online before buying and this one turned out to be good with young children believe it or not. You can do whatever to him he just come back and wag his tail and try to lick you.had a big wide mouth and muscles but is not huge. Ours is blue in color which most people like.He don’t have access to all part of house so stays in basement or in special room in the yard. Only thing is that he do lots of destruction with those big teeth of his. Chewed thru some 2×4’s ,ply and picnic table,lol. When caught in the act he just bails and hide in other parts of the house or yard.
    here I am trying to load his images so if you click on dog album/ signs you will see two pics. I just added Photobucket account so don’t know much.hope it work.

    I didn’t know that you are a “dog whisperer”. may i ask you later what else to feed this guy as he is on same “eukanuba north atlantic salmon & rice” for last year and half.

    This is what wiki says about this breed–

    Although individual differences in personality exist, common traits exist throughout the Staffords. Due to its breeding, and history, the Staffordshire Bull Terrier is known for its character of intelligence, fearlessness and loyalty.[4] This, coupled with its affection for its friends, its off-duty quietness and trustworthy stability, make it a foremost all-purpose dog.[5] It has been said that “No breed is more loving with its family”.[6]
    The breed is naturally muscular and may appear intimidating; however, because of their natural fondness for people, most Staffords are temperamentally ill-suited for guard or attack-dog training. Staffordshire Bull Terrier puppies are very easy to house train.[7]

  62. Neil AB Says:

    Re: 59 – that’s basically what my first 6 wives said. But, really, I’ve changed. And I do mean it this time.

  63. Neil AB Says:

    Fear may have missed this one. been playing some of the U.S. housing stuff through IFP, WFT and Home Depot (US) but you kind of think all this internet delivery etc. needs cardboard. So, should have been thinking Winpak, cause that’s what they do. Small div, small pullback, all time highs. Again, worth a look.
    I don’t own it but, again, watching. (feel it necessary to disclose ownership, not that anyone should care what I own or don’t) but I got kind of got dissed once by Tony for mentioning a stock that I owned. Rightly so. This should not be a forum for trying to “boost” one’s stocks.

  64. Neil AB Says:

    Great pix. thanks, but I can’t let my wife see or she would want one right now. Great looding hound. I’m quite attracted to the “do want you want to him and he will just come back and lick you” part of your description. This could be the perfect dog for me – I just have to somehow get rid of my latest wife.

  65. Neil AB Says:

    OK Board
    Sorry I mentioned the dog thing. But, Many thanks to all that have responded to my off hand comment. But, in the end, I guess this is supposed to be a seasonality, t.a., what’s hot with stocks kind of place and I fear we may be P.O ing those who think that sort of thing is more important than talking canines. Right or wrong, let’s give them, with apologies, the board.
    Having said that, does anyone have a portugese water dog? If it’s good enough for Obama?…second term seasonality, it may be good enough for me. In fact, if you check out the seasonality of second term presidents who have portugese water dogs…

    Ok, that’s it, no more none stock stuff from me.

  66. kam Says:

    Hi neil,
    I didn’t mean to say whatever “you”/neil want to do to my dog and it will still come back and wag its tail,lol. I might say “go’to him if you try. After all it is a bull terrier and there are lots of bulls on this board now a days :)

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