Tech Talk for Thursday February 14th 2013

Daily Reports Add comments

ShareThis

Pre-opening Comments for Thursday February 14th

U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 4 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of weekly jobless claims report. Consensus was a decline to 360,000 from 368,000 last year. Actual was 341,000.

Heinz gained $12.00 to $72.48 after Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital announced plans to acquire Heinz for $72.50 per share in an all-cash offer. Value of the offer is $28 billion.

Lockheed Martin (LMT $86.86) is expected to open lower after Cowen downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral.

Verizon (VZ $44.52) is expected to open higher after Raymond James upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform.

Nabors Energy gained $0.44 to $17.60 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Neutral to Conviction Buy. Target was raised from $17 to $23. The upgrade is based on a pick-up in international drilling activity.

Comcast added $0.15 to $40.28 after RBC Capital upgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Outperform.

 

Technical Watch

Nabors Industries, Inc. (NYSE:NBR) – $17.60 gained 2.6% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Neutral to Conviction Buy. The stock has a positive technical profile. An intermediate uptrend was confirmed yesterday when the stock broke above $17.00. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid-December. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.

clip_image001[1]

Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) Seasonal Chart

clip_image003

Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) – $86.86 is expected to open lower after Cowen downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral. The stock has a deteriorating technical profile. The stock likely will open below support at $86.01, completing a double to pattern. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the end of December. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.

clip_image004[1]

 

Interesting Charts

Industrial SPDRs broke at an all-time high thanks mainly to strength in General Electric following sale of its NBC interest to Comcast. ‘Tis the season!

clip_image001

clip_image002

Ditto for the Consumer Discretionary SPDRs to an all-time high thanks partially to strength in Comcast! ‘Tis the season!

clip_image003

clip_image004

 

Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column

clip_image006

The Importance of Communication

By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach

www.TradingOnTarget.com


There has been a lot of talk about how the lack of good communication is a major problem in our politics and in our lives. While we over communicate in the area of blogs, twitters and tweaks, face-to-face communication is becoming a thing of the past. In face-to-face communication people have to confront problems where they do not necessarily have the answers, do not want to face the truth about what is happening, or by answering the question it will lead to a larger problem where there are more difficult questions to answer. Perhaps the present day models of how people communicate have an effect on how we communicate with ourselves.

Let’s look at the importance of how a trader’s communication with himself can make the difference between success and failure.

Thoughts influencing action

While we do not think about how thoughts affect action on a regular basis, we think thoughts constantly. Very often those thoughts are repetitious and lead to taking unintended or undesired action. Thoughts such as:

· If I am wrong, I will have to answer to my wife

· If I get in too soon or too late, I will miss my best opportunity

· What makes me think that I really know what I am doing?

· The last time it worked when I broke my rules

Change the conversation

Most of us monitor the conversation we put out to the world because we have experienced the consequences of not filtering our thoughts. If we do this for others, we should also consider doing it for ourselves in order to have a better outcome.

Here is an example of how you might consider speaking to yourself:

“I have improved on my technical skills and have worked on my psychology to get a better outcome. With my continued education, I should expect and enjoy better results.

I am a good trader who makes good choices because I follow my predetermined strategy. I learn from the actions I take every day.”

Or, more simply stated:

“Every day in every way I am becoming a better trader and better person.”

Change the conversation with others

If someone says to you that you are a gambler, you are throwing away money and that you will never be a trader, your answer should be:

“I appreciate your concern. I know that you have my best interest when you give me advice. Trading is a profession where people do earn a living when they incorporate the right principles and take the right action. I have a business plan where I intend to be risk adverse and take only calculated risk based on a tested strategy. If for some reason I do not earn money, I will do what is necessary to adjust my strategy, or take care of any self-sabotage before risking any more money.”

Or, more simply stated:

“I take calculated risk that has been tested to be profitable.”

Of course, you must consider that if you have not been producing profits, perhaps the well-meaning people in your life are justified in their comments to you.

Conclusion

Conversation has an influence on your taking action. When you take the time to listen to what is being said, you might realize that changing that conversation to be more positive would have a better influence on your producing higher profits in your trading.

Adrienne’s Free Webinars

Adrienne presents free webinars on the psychology of trading

Email Adrienne@TradingOnTarget.com

FP Trading Desk Headline

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Volatile TSX to beat the S&P 500 Index this year”. Following is a link to the report:

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/13/volatile-tsx-to-beat-sp-500-this-year/

 

Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s Guide

Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s guide is available by ordering through www.alphamountain.com , Amazon or Books on Business.

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice the recent update on most charts.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

 

Industrials Sector Seasonal Chart

clip_image008

 

Weekly Select Sector SPDRs Review

Technology

· Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move above $29.89.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from negative to neutral

· Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

clip_image009

Materials

· Intermediate trend is up.

· Unit remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative

· Short term momentum indicators have dropped to neutral levels.

clip_image010

Consumer Discretionary

· Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above $50.98 to an all-time high

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought

clip_image011

Industrials

· Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above $40.91 to an all-time high

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought

clip_image012

Financials

· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from neutral to positive

· Short term momentum indicators remain overbought.

clip_image013

Energy

· Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above $78.59.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 remains positive

· Short term momentum indicators remain overbought.

clip_image014

Consumer Staples

· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought.

clip_image015

Health Care

· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from positive to neutral.

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought

clip_image016

Utilities

· Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above $37.02.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought.

clip_image017

 

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.  535896_514118838638877_109610763_n

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

 

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC February13th 2013

clip_image019

Sponsored By...

Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker:



31 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday February 14th 2013”

  1. Tawny Says:

    HAPPY VALENTINES DAY to all my Tech Talk Fellow Bloggers and to Don and Jon!

  2. Tawny Says:

    Freddebuoy
    &
    Neil

    Thank you very much for your kindness in spending your time to provide your views of Van. Island. I just now copied and pasted, having taken some time out for personal stuff – sorry for the delay in getting back to you. I will print and digest (the information not the paper… LOL) and get back to you later… I have some catching up to do. Not wanting to sound redundant, but thank you – much appreiated!

  3. Tawny Says:

    Mavis

    I saw this post of yours from a couple of day ago…

    “I’m still learning and the hard way. ETFs smooth out the bumps and in backtesting ones like SPY/SH I realized that by using weekly charts and TA you can buy and sell only on major direction changes, trading no more than 4/5 times a year with a good low stress result. This solidified for me last November but my meddling little impatient self has not yet properly put it into practice.”

    I am on the same investment train as you are. It is very difficult for any fund or managed ETF to outperform the major indexes overtime. I share you views and would like to pursue this further with you and I am thinking it might be better to take our discussion off-line. Do you have an e-mail address you don’t mind posting here?

  4. Tawny Says:

    Mavis
    and anyone interested in laid-back investing

    http://alphaim.net/mid_cap_fs.pdf

    The above is just one strategy from Alpha Investment Mangagement.

  5. Tawny Says:

    Mavis

    Here is the main site and where you can find more strategies… personally I would go beyond the US.. with my strategy.

    http://alphaim.net/programs.html

  6. tony Says:

    Happy St-Valentine day to Don, Jon, Brooke, Éric W, and all the contributors who this site refers us to.

    Happy St-Valentine day to all the bloggers, ex-bloggers(Ron, Slava, Maria, Kay…), and readers.

  7. Paul-R Says:

    Tawny,

    Why take your discussion off site?
    I’m interested in this idea as others may be as well.
    Thanks
    Paul

  8. CJ Says:

    Tony – WED @14

    Re CUF/u Sitting right on the 200 ma again Tony, but Options have it pegged at $23 so it cannot beat those odds :( Checking next month’s options …..

  9. CJ Says:

    #8 – Woops! Wonder where I got that option figure – none available now???

    making another run at it, maybe this time Tony!

  10. NRG Says:

    Laid Back Investing – The Canadian Couch Potato

    I find the best site for stress free investing. Lots of great portfolios, lots of great ideas.

    Welcome to Canadian Couch Potato. This blog is designed for Canadians who want to learn more about investing using index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In 2011, it was selected by The Globe and Mail as the best investing blog in Canada.

    The Couch Potato strategy—also called index investing, or passive investing—is growing in popularity as more people become disillusioned with mutual funds and stock-picking strategies that try, usually in vain, to beat the market.

    What is the Couch Potato strategy?

    The Couch Potato strategy is a technique for building a diversified, low-maintenance portfolio designed to deliver the returns of the overall stock and bond markets with minimal cost. The strategy can reduce a typical investor’s costs by as much as 90%, while at the same time beating the majority of mutual funds and professionally managed accounts.

    The strategy—also called index investing, or passive investing—has been around for decades, though it has become far more popular in recent years, as new products and online discount brokerages have made it easier to implement. Anyone can now build and maintain their own portfolio using index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

    http://canadiancouchpotato.com/

  11. Tawny Says:

    Paul

    Re #7 – not sure… just kinda thought we might bore the Day and Swing Traders and the strict T.A. traders. Anyway, will see what Mavis says if she see this. If I don’t see her on board I will just bring her back here when I do see her. Will see if any others are interested. Paul, meantime, have a look at links 4 and 5.

    I am feeling very off-center this morning, so I may not be here much more today.

  12. Tawny Says:

    NRG

    Thanks for posting Couch Potato – I have come across it before and I am glad to hear that you are having success with it. Will add to my plan – esp. for Cdn.$ ETFs.

    Re: Broader ETFs, besides U.S. Europe has pulled back but I would not rule it out – the P/E valuations of many of these countries are very low. We may find buying at these pullbacks. Check out this article which I am too fuzzy to read. But I got the message.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-etfs-attract-robust-inflows-171515349.html

  13. tony Says:

    Cj

    CUF
    Another day, another day where the 200MA played resistance. maybe an 18/200 cross will make all the bulls run into it…

    Options traded yesterday are erased today.

  14. tony Says:

    NBR

    after reviewing its chart, a simple fact that any TA trader should look into is the fact that 2days ago it bumped on the 18MA and its u and has shoot up 1$(6%). Another reason why trade on the 18MA-20-21MA you pick the MA.

  15. tony Says:

    sorry for the finger tied… on post 14.

  16. tony Says:

    CJ

    congrats on the EUO up 1.75%(long way from 22 but it broke above the 18MA) if it can break above the 50MA(18.79) then you should see it shoot higher.

  17. Tard Says:

    Happy valentine’s day fellow bloggers! Good to be back.
    Tard

  18. Tawny Says:

    Tard
    Happy V.Day to you and nice to see you back…

    Teresa
    KOL is on daily buy and broke the 20dma… took half position. Also TAN looks like it broken recent resistance. I have not bought yet… not sure if I will.

    I have to lay off for awhile.. nap time:)

  19. dougp Says:

    Sorry folks, but all this talk about couch potato strategy does not sit well on this site for me. I am still a neophyte after 17 years of investing, plus useless dabbling for more than 40, and including some very costly years with “full-service” at one of the banks, LOL as you say. That said, I find this site, coupled with the many excellent pieces that come from you all, has finally given me both peace and profits. Although Canuck did not think I could use his approach for a small RESP account, I changed it last year from a moribund Moneysense couch potato structure to a portfolio of good stocks, plus a few bond funds and etfs; HAC is its largest holding. The RESP has sprung to life and now is a small but reassuring cash cow. Tony’s 18-day MA has proved invaluable for decision timing, and I read the blog every day for all your input, sifting for refinements to my trading account, TFSA and RRIF, and now my wife’s accounts. I actually have my wife reading this stuff. Right now she is in bed with her Ipad, trading BB. Happy Valentine’s Day everyone, I’m going fishing (yes, Tawny, this is Victoria calling.) Will pick up the Nova Scotia lobsters and BC wine on the way home.

  20. Brian/ON Says:

    Interesting moves on gold producers. Barrick, Kinross seem to have come out with Mea culpas and some very, very large write offs this quarter. 4 billion for Barrick, which is huge for even a company of its size. But the market seems to like the owning up to a bad situation, ABX is up 1.53 or about 4.6%, Kinross up nearly 6%. Most of the others, OSK, YRI up as well, to some extent.

  21. Brian/ON Says:

    Big energy has moved big this morning as well, due to losses reported, ECA and CVE both down big time, 5% for encana, 3.5% for CVE. I think this has dragged on some others as well, SU, CNQ.

  22. Tawny Says:

    dougp

    Re #19 – thanks for your feedback re couch investing… different strokes for different folks. As I said, not sure if others interested in the type of investing Mavis is talking about – seems NRG and Paul and myself are.

    I am really glad to learn that you are benefiting from this site and your portfolio is doing better.

    Have you and others ever really compared their portfolio performance to that of performance of major indices over time… esp. a strategy such as the one in link blog #4?

    Victoria – awesome. Fishing? In the sea? For what kind of fish?

  23. Ch Says:

    Hi Tony,
    SLV seems not doing well in the seasonality this year. What is your opinion. In HAC’s Feb letter it says SLV still looking good till 1st week of March. But now the picture looks change in direction. Once again your 18MA works really good.

  24. Mavis Says:

    Hi Tawny:

    I’m working on a pretty simple strategy and it all comes down to putting in your earplugs, putting on your blinders and using only the charts. By using the broadest etfs – IWM/RWM and reading a weekly chart, once a week only. So every week you decide whether you’re in or out. Kind of like a computer. No other second guessing. My important signals MACD, RSI Wms, candlesticks. Using whatever works for you, decide – in or out. By taking a look back, even to 2008/2009, the signals (even if you never read the news) would have sent you out (or to inverse)early enough to avoid disaster. And sent you back in when the smoke cleared. I think the important thing is the breadth of the etf and only using the weekly chart. So it’s not buy and hold, you don’t have to absorb the downs and you’re in for the ups. This alone improves things dramaticaly. By adding inverse, of course things get better. By further adding leverage things get totally amazing (dreaming in technicolour). It’s all the charts, all weekly, all the time.

    Too bad I have an itchy trading finger and a big fear of a 2008 broadside. This has cost me much $. I like the idea of an impersonal weekly reading and decision with no further thought or second thought and think that it can pay off.

    By taking a very close look at a weekly chart and, using your own criteria, you can see what you would have done using only that criteria.

    If you want to chat further offline – maustinis@gmail.com

  25. Teresa Says:

    Tawny:

    #18 – Coal had nice break out today. I bought some oil services yesterday and today. Think this sector should do very well this year. Waiting the market to pull down to add more.

  26. tony Says:

    dougP

    I’m glad your portfolios are doing well.

    the couchpotato portfolio is great for those who want to invest but have limited time on their hands in stock picking or have no strategy…

    I have a friend whom I tried more then once talking to him on how to trade sucessfully but hes so concentrated on his wins/losses that once he gets winners they often end up either most of the gains are lost or they turn out losers and is losers are a disasters area.

    After the holidays I finally got him to listen to the 18MA I showed him a real up to date chart, I removed from the chart 2 things the title and the Price axis and the only thing he had was the 18MA and how much every upside downside generated during the swings.

    Once I showed him the chart he didn’t want to believe me that the chart was able to move up 71% in 4 months lost 9% moved 22.7% and finally lost 34% in value… all this in less than 2 year and only by trading when price moves above or below the 18MA.

    I showed him other charts after I presented him the actual chart(AAPL) he was finally convinced that my method really works wonders. I showed him how a friend of ours was able to make 25K investing in rimm he only invested 18K to make this money. He finally asked me how did this friend know how to trade Rimm, I had a great big smile on my face

    The advantage of trading an ETF is that you don’t have to pick one company in a sector you simply pick them all and let someone else figure out which security should have the highest wait in the basket and even if one comapny misses there are 40 others that will pick up the pieces for the one bad apple.

  27. tony Says:

    dougP

    I’m glad your portfolios are doing well.

    the couchpotato portfolio is great for those who want to invest but have limited time on their hands in stock picking or have no strategy…

    I have a friend whom I tried more then once talking to him on how to trade sucessfully but hes so concentrated on his wins/losses that once he gets winners they often end up either most of the gains are lost or they turn out losers and is losers are a disasters area.

    After the holidays I finally got him to listen to the 18MA I showed him a real up to date chart, I removed from the chart 2 things the title and the Price axis and the only thing he had was the 18MA and how much every upside downside generated during the swings.

    Once I showed him the chart he didn’t want to believe me that the chart was able to move up 71% in 4 months lost 9% moved 22.7% and finally lost 34% in value… all this in less than 2 year and only by trading when price moves above or below the 18MA.

    I showed him other charts after I presented him the actual chart(AAPL) he was finally convinced that my method really works wonders. I showed him how a friend of ours was able to make 25K investing in rimm he only invested 18K to make this money. He finally asked me how did this friend know how to trade Rimm, I had a great big smile on my face

    The advantage of trading an ETF is that you don’t have to pick one company in a sector you simply pick them all and let someone else figure out which security should have the highest wait in the basket and even if one comapny misses there are 40 others that will pick up the pieces for the one bad apple.

  28. tony Says:

    ch

    As I have mentionned here in the last few days I was picked out once it broke below the 18MA, so now is not the time to be a hero…

    Look at an 18 month chart of CMG this stock went from 420 to 240 once it broke below the 18MA it did jump here and there above the 18MA and generated a few 20%+ return butyou must be careful.

    NFLX is another the first time it had momentum it was able to trade below the 18MA and come back but once it was official the 18MA wasn’t going to hold its ground it plunged to 60$, it the last year it was able to break twice above the 18MA the 1st time it generated 60% the second time it simply tripled your money.

  29. tony Says:

    ch

    SLV

    I was picked out as it broke below the 18MA…continued on 28

  30. Tim Says:

    tony,
    great examples above about NFLX and CMG… but how you decided to exit or enter on the MA18 break, do you wait for name to “close” above/below that MA or as soon as it trades above it you enter?

    Thanks,
    Tim

  31. dmp Says:

    Tony,

    When trading based on the 18 day s.m.a. do you look at a one year chart set to the daily or weekly setting to evaluate your buys and sells.

    Thanks for your time..

TopOfBlogs Finance Blogs
Entries RSS Comments RSS Log in