Tech Talk for Friday February 15th 2013

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday February 15th

Next Tech Talk report is available on Tuesday February 19th. Monday is President’s Day in the U.S. and Family Day in Canada.

U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures are unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the February Empire State Manufacturing Index. Consensus was 0.0 versus -7.8 in January. Actual was +10.04.

TransOcean fell $1.65 to $57.65 after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell.

Precision Drilling (PD $9.16) is expected to open higher after Raymond James upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform.

Kinross (K$8.34) is expected to open higher after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform.

General Motors slipped $0.07 to $27.68 after Craig-Hallum downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.

 

Technical Watch

Precision Drilling Corp. (TSE:$9.16) is expected to open higher after Raymond James upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform. The stock has a positive technical profile. Short term trend is up. The stock completes a double bottom pattern on a move above $9.49. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages and moved above its 20 day moving average yesterday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive in mid-December. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Seasonal influences are just turning positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.

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Precision Drilling Corporation (NYSE:PDS) Seasonal Chart

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Interesting Charts

Impressive breakout by gasoline following release of an unexpected drop in the weekly U.S. gasoline inventory report! ‘Tis the season!

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The U.S. Metals and Mining sector (consisting of coal, steel, base metals, precious metals and fertilizer stocks) finally is showing technical signs of moving into its period of seasonal strength. The sector moved above a brief base building pattern yesterday and moved above its 20 and 50 day moving average.

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The Gold Bullion ETF confirmed an intermediate downtrend on a break below support to reach a seven month low. Gold equity ETFs also remain under technical pressure.

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Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s Guide

Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s guide is available by ordering through www.alphamountain.com , Amazon or Books on Business.

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice the recent update on most charts.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

 

Metals & Mining Industry Seasonal Chart

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Updates on Sector Seasonal Trades

Seasonal trades optimally have a technical score of3 based on (1) uptrend. (2) trading above its 20 day moving average and (3) outperforming the market (S&P 500 for U.S. holdings, TSX for Canadian holdings). Scores moving lower than 3 are warning signs. A score of 0=0.5 is a sell signal.

Technical score for the forest products ETF remains at 1.0. Seasonal influences end in mid-February, but can extend to April.

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Technical score for Industrial SPDRs changed from 2.5 to 3.0 when strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from neutral to positive. Seasonal influences are positive until early May. Units closed at an all-time high.

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Technical score for Consumer Discretionary SPDRs remains at 2.5. Seasonal influences are positive until mid-April. Units closed at an all-time high

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Technical score for the Retail ETF remains at 3.0. Units touched an all-time high on Tuesday. Seasonal influences are positive until mid-April.

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Technical score for the Semiconductor ETF remains 3.0. Seasonal influences are positive until the first week in March.

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Technical score for Materials SPDRs remains at 1.0. Seasonal influences are positive until early May.

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Technical score for Copper remains at 2.5. Seasonal influences are positive until May.

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Technical score for Silver fell from 2.5 to 0.0 when Silver fell below its 200 day moving average, dropped below support at $30.75 and strength relative to the S&P 500 changed from neutral to negative.

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Technical score for Platinum remains 3.0. Seasonal influences are positive until March, but can extend to May.

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Technical score for Palladium remains 3.0. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May.

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Technical score for iShares on the TSX Energy Index remains at 1.5. Seasonal influences are positive until early May, but can extend to mid-June.

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Technical score for U.S. Oil and Gas Exploration SPDRs remains 3.0. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April.

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Technical score for Energy SPDRs remains at 3.0. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April.

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Technical score for the Oil Services ETF remains 3.0. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April. Nice breakout yesterday on an upgrade of the sector by Goldman Sachs!

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Technical score for the Gasoline ETN remains 3.0. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April.

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Technical score on Metals and Mining SPDRs is 3.0. Seasonal influences are positive until May.

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Eric Wheatley’s Listed Options Column

Hello options lovers (please feel safe. This is a judgement-free zone as to your Valentine’s Day evening activities),

Last week, we dove into how volatility really works and why options traders hedge off their risk for fun and profit. From the emails I have gotten, your reaction was one of curiosity and confusion. Given that business school taught me that it is the communicator’s responsibility to craft the message in a manner which will be intuitively understood by the target, I’ll use images in an attempt at being comprehensible.

Once again, we presented a scenario by which a trader believes that options prices – through implied volatilities represented by the VIX, as an example – are relatively low. If options are underpriced, a speculator can buy options “cheaply”. If one doesn’t have an opinion on what the stock’s price will do, one can buy a direction-neutral position, such as a straddle or a strangle. If the purchaser of the options didn’t hedge off his delta, he or she would hope that the stock’s price would move beyond the position’s break-even points on both the upside and the downside. If one is an options trader who hedges the position’s delta however, one doesn’t really care where the stock goes, as long as it moves.

Now, I shall open up the dreaded MS Paint and try to draw this scenario. If I don’t make it, please tell my mom that she raised a valorous and entirely conventional and unweird man.

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[As always, I present the caveat that there are NO straight lines in the realm of options. This is simply an attempt at making the concept intuitive.

…and the Realm of Options is just beyond the Narrow Sea, for those of you who are curious].

The illustration shows that if you simultaneously purchase both a call AND a put, you’ll make money if the stock moves either to the upside (by which the call will gain in value) or to the downside (in which case the put becomes more valuable). If the stock doesn’t move, both the call and the put will expire worthless and you’ll lose the money paid to put on the position; here, that amounts to $2. As you can see, if options are undervalued, you are paying out less to set up the position, so the “unprofitable zone” (the bottom of the V formation) is smaller.

This is how straddles are usually presented. You pay out and hope the stock moves in either direction by a good amount. Now, in the real world, options traders NEVER care about a stock price’s direction. Options traders just want to capitalise on movement.

From last week:

ABC is currently trading at $50, so you, a professional options trader, buy 10 April 50 calls at $1.00 and 10 April 50 puts at $1.00 (all prices are simplified). In all, you’re paying $2 per underlying share – $2,000 net. Now, if you were simply a retail punter, you’d think that your break-even points are at $48 and $52 (that is, if ABC’s price drops below $48, you’d make money; same thing if the price rises above $52). This is because in either direction, either the call or the put will increase in value enough for you to cover your initial outlay of cash.

Here’s where it gets fun: the calls currently have a delta of 50% and the puts have a delta of ‑50%. Being a pro trader – like a market-maker – you always hedge your positions. Assuming that this is your sole ABC position, you’d actually not do anything at the outset, because you’re already hedged. That is, the 10 calls have an equivalent delta of long 500 shares (10 calls * 50%) and the puts have an equivalent delta of short 500 shares (10 puts * -50%), so you’re net flat.

Now, let’s assume ABC’s price drops to $49. The calls’ delta drops to 40% and the puts’ delta “rises” to -60% (yes, delta changes. It changes according to the options’ gamma, which is one step too far for today). Your net equivalent position is now short 200 shares, because the calls have an equivalent position of long 400 shares (10 calls * 40%) and the puts have an equivalent position of short 600 shares (10 puts * -60%). As a trader, you want to get back to neutral, so you’ll offset the short position by buying 200 shares.

The next day, ABC rises to $51. The calls’ delta is now 60% and the puts’ delta is now -40%. Your net equivalent position is now LONG 400 shares, because the calls have an equivalent position of long 600 shares (10 calls * 60%) and the puts have an equivalent position of short 400 shares (10 puts * -40%) AND you’re long 200 shares outright from your previous hedge. You’ve got to reset your hedge, so you’ll SELL 400 shares to reset.

Finally, the stock comes back to $50. The deltas come back to 50% and -50%, and you’re net short 200 shares, so you’ll buy those back to reset the position”.

Here is my attempt at an illustration:

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The point was that if you buy options and hedge off your risk by dynamically trading the stock, you’ll automatically be buying low and selling high. The more the stock is volatile, the more (inherently profitable) trading you will be doing. Once again, you don’t care a whit where the stock’s price ends up, you just want the realised volatility to be greater than the implied volatility paid for the options position.

Anyways, I find this stuff interesting AND it can help people make money. We’ll move on to other things next week.

Cheers!

Éric Wheatley, MBA, CIM

Associate Portfolio Manager, J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc.

eric@jchood.com

514.604.2829; 1.855.348.2829

*****************

Little known fact about John Charles Hood #61

John Charles Hood sees a non-overlapping Under Armor logo in the composite delta curves of calls and puts. This indicates that he a) is naturally brilliant at lateral thought and b) that he totally fills out his athletic wear with his rockin’ sexagenarian* bod.

(*Please look up this word if you find it to be inappropriate for this family-friendly forum. It isn’t risqué. I promise).

 

Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s Guide

Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s guide is available by ordering through www.alphamountain.com , Amazon or Books on Business.

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice the recent update on most charts.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Metals & Mining Industry Seasonal Chart

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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. 563379_10151460928896023_733982241_n

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC February14th 2013

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38 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday February 15th 2013”

  1. Ken Says:

    $Silver fell below its 200 day moving average, however SLW seems to be holding for now, any thoughts on how SLW will react near term?

  2. tony Says:

    Tim /DMP

    I will answer your ? on the same post as one doesn’t go without the other…

    Tim Asks:
    but how you decided to exit or enter on the MA18 break, do you wait for name to “close” above/below that MA or as soon as it trades above it you enter?

    DMP
    When trading based on the 18 day s.m.a. do you look at a one year chart set to the daily or weekly setting to evaluate your buys and sells.

    First lets start with DMP… as this is the base of any trade
    the time frame you set up is of the up most importance…

    the greater your timeframe the more patient you must be with your portfolio as you may have to sustain big losses. I for one prefer a daily chart to a weekly chart as you can capitalize sum up more gains entering and exiting your trades.
    If you can afford a 1hr time frame even better… the smallest time frame I use is the 15min

    here is an example I posted to fellow blogger here
    I took 3 daily charts and made an analysis for each one of them
    this is a typical buy and hold scenario

    if you had entered in dec 2011 in each one of them one and held it through 2012 1 yr later here are the results

    company #1 you took a 26% loss (and I am generous as if you had bought on the 1st trading day of decemeber it was -47%)

    company #2 generated a 28% win

    company #3 you had a big fat 0% return maybe the dividend could have generated something but that wasn’t at all what I as an investor what to wait I want to retire eventually.

    I made the the analysis on the 18MA but on an hourly chart for the entire year in all three cases you traded theses three companies 66 times(in/out)

    all three companies had generated a big return in the 30-40% if you had it compouded its in the 66 to 100% return

    your asking who are these companies…1 abx, 2 aim.to, 3 csx

    the biggest loss generated from the tree names was 1.25$/share

    since I play with the 1hr time frame I like to see it cross the 18MA to enter my trade and to exit I use the same technique

    ok so If I buy as soon as it crosses above the 18MA and it pulls south after I did get triggered where do I put my stop loss.

    How to set up a stop loss

    there are a few techiniques I have found throughout my experimentations

    % stop loss
    The more volatile the stock the bigger the % buyiong the vix or a levered etf I set them up at 10% for a low beta 4% higher beta 6%

    You can set up the SAR(stop and reverse)

    you can use a MACD H or RSI when the Bar or line crosses below the middle you exit

    then there the MA Envelopes a cross below the lower band you simply exit I have the parameters set up at 18,1

    and finally theres the MAs (38,50,75,100,150,200)

    I bought X this week made a nice 2.7% return as it came across the 200MA and pulled south so I have simply exited the trade.

    I see you coming how will you know when to renter ther trade. I have set two buying points one on the 18MA the other above the 200MA so Should I be right and it moves to the 18MA I will be glad to enter the trade if I’m wrong and moves north I will be happy to enter above the 200MA on the 1hr timeframe.

    Should it move below the 18MA after I purchased it I will simply exit the trade on a move below the 50MA(22.73) the 18MA Env is at 22.83 so take a .33$ loss is no biggie.

  3. dougp Says:

    Tawny and Tony:

    Thanks for the feedback on my comments on the Couch Potato. I just felt that if that was your approach, why would you bother with this site? To each her own as you say, and fair enough. And I did take note of Mavis’s idea yesterday (#24) which combines elements of couch potato and TA. I will take a second look at this.

    And Tawny, the winter fishing around Victoria is salt- and freshwater. I was trouting yesterday, to no avail (too cold and wet.) Should have stayed home and watched HAL. I sold it this morning still for a nice little profit after a few days. Got back into PD as per Don’s note above. This stock has played well for me several times.

  4. dougp Says:

    Tony, #2

    Thanks for your detailed response to Tim and DMP. I was going to raise the very same question. You have answered it beautifully, providing us with a great example of why we enjoy this site.

  5. tony Says:

    dougP

    I am just glad I can help, like don understand how to trade like a winner.

  6. redsteve138 Says:

    question everybody
    Am i right in saying china said they want to buy more silver?
    Was china closed all this week for trading ?
    If the answer is yes to these two questions then would it make sense that on Monday they may start buying some at these levels?
    and we couldn’t buy any on Monday is that right?

  7. Michael Says:

    Hi Ken. RE: SLW, it has been stuck in a trading range between $34 and $37. If you watch Full Stochastics, when it gets to the 20 level, it has been a good time to buy. If you follow seasonality, this is the time of year where the bears come out from hibernation. I was shorting silver off and on last year thru HZD from late February to April. However, silver is somewhat oversold but in a downtrend, and silver hasn’t been folling seasonality this year. It’s a tough one to play, but would expect that SLW will test the $34 area soon.

    http://charts.equityclock.com/silver-wheaton-corp-tseslw-seasonal-chart

  8. Tawny Says:

    VIS and SPY out of sync

    http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

  9. Tim Says:

    tony,
    Thank you for taking the time to answer our questions… good detailed answer…
    So, basically you are not fixated really on the “close” above or below the sma, you monitor your stocks for other factors as well…

    Excellent method… I am trying to combine your method (TA) and a bit of Canuck method of buying only dividend paying stocks/etfs..

    Thank you again tony.

  10. Tawny Says:

    Doug

    NTR: Sorry about your fish tale! Better luck next time!

  11. tony Says:

    Tim

    you’re welcome,

    After rereading my post I should have better explained myself.

    I buy when it moves above the 18MA but once I take position I don’t want to exit just after I have entered, as price can move against me in the next few minutes or days so I put stops…underneath my entry

    yes there are things I will look out for especially the MAs as this is the easiest Support/*Resistance you can find.

    If you look at WZR.V since September 2011 was a text book play once it bounced off the 150MA. everytime it crossed below the 18MA you’ld wait for a pullback to the 150MA as soon as it moved higher you just got in and wait for the next pullback below the 18MA to exit(if it didn’t cross one particular or moved below the 150MA you simply exited the trade.

    The person who asked me this play if relied on break below the 150MA to exit made 2x his money, but if played as I have just mentioned more then doubled his investment.
    If you look at what happened after it broke below the 150MA everytime it broke above the 18MA it never stayed above it for long. and last time it tried crossing the 150MA it was unsuccesful.

  12. kam Says:

    Hi goldies,
    I posted some days ago that HGU can fall to $5.70 and I have my order at $5.70.Well I chickened out and moved it to $5.50 now which is about where $39.08 is on gdx IF $can stays where it is.There might be battle here and there but don’t have good feeling in my gut about them and $39.08 holding if gold moves and SPX starts it downward move.But as my gut is not my brain and it can’t think so You guys can try buying here a position if you want I will try to wait for $39. just a thought.

  13. Tim Says:

    tony,
    I like that concept, it is almost like using the longer MA to identify the overall trend, if it is above the MA150 (I use the MA100), then go long and exit when it pulls back below the shorter MA18… very nice looking chart and strategy on the WZR.V… the only thing required is Discipline to follow through and stick with the plan.

  14. tony Says:

    RedSteve

    Yes this week China is closed for the chinese new year.

    SLW

    Looking at the Dchart here are the things we can see today the 18 and 50 are basically the same.

    SLW has been having trouble crossing and holding above the 50MA since December, So for the time being the 50 must be able to support the weight of slw if we want to see it move higher can’t use the 50MA

    today it opened below the 18MA and moved below the 18MA env. now will price hold above the SAR(34.81) if not exit the trade as this is enough pain to with take

    If I were to trade it the 1hr chart back on jan 30th it hit the 200MA pulled to the 18MA and moved north from there, retested it on feb 11th and moved north feb 15th(thats today it opened below the 200MA(35.93)
    Oh and finally the chart shows an M pattern had the 18MA prevailed slw would have held its ground.

    so what should I do if I were in this market.

    I would give 34.81 a chance as this is 2.7% from my entry point and I don’t want to trade out just to finally say why why me!!!

    And the one question everyone has forgotten to ask themselves is? what day are we? the 3rd friday of the month options expire today so this could just be a shake out of the frail hands.

    So I would give this one a chance to my 34.81

  15. kam Says:

    Just adding to #12
    I have seen here and even at twitter plus others talk about Chinese coming back from holidays and buy gold and silver as it is much cheaper than expected.I have thought about it and it is only my opinion.Why we think Chinese are just dumb money and will start buying gold and silver all of a sudden as it have fallen?If I can move my buy order of hgu lower and won’t care even if gold stocks start moving up,why can’t they wait and gold and silver might drop more and then buy it?After all they the real smart money and own half of the world,Well kind of.

    Then then there comes the market saying.Market will do opposite of what most people think it will do and give maximum pain to most people.So be ready and don’t hang your hat on Chinese coming back help you.

    Gdx is not even oversold on RSI yet and haven’t even fallen thru the Extreme keltner 3.0 as introduced by a good man called Mick/NV another thing I just checked is that volume of gdx was 20mil-30mil few days in a row when last time it bottom in may.It is not much yet around 14 mil today and counting.So maybe freddy can comment on that signal.
    http://scharts.co/12RJrJt

  16. tony Says:

    Tim

    I have forgotten to mention one thing this occurs 12 times a year and its option friday god do I hate this day because this is the day you liquidate your options that expire either bad or good you need to liquidate them otherwise you simply lose your money.

    About the MA its a good indicator that I follow religiously, but you must understand that not all stocks are created equally as the some will bounce of the 200, others on the 150, 100, 75, 50,38, 18 or be repulsed by them.

    but its not because one MA is support that once price breaks below it becomes resistance per say.

    2 yrs ago gold had the 150MA as support on the way up, once it broke below the 38MA turned out to be its resistance.

    you got to know your stock not every stock

  17. tony Says:

    Kam

    I totally agree with you why buy it cheap when I can afford to buy it at an even cheaper price…

    this is how they played it last time if WarrenB says buy it on the cheap sell it on the expensive why should they not follow the oracle…

  18. tony Says:

    Is the US market closed on monday?

  19. redsteve138 Says:

    thanks for the insight Tony.did not know about option friday.

  20. tony Says:

    Yup by posting this msg I,ve just read that the US mkt is closed

    ok so here is another reason why this market is down today monday people are off so they need this money to celebrate st-val

  21. tony Says:

    RSteve

    3rd friday of each month (the week its self is a head scratcher) is a week that its better to stay in $ then investing. you need confidence to be able to play the week without losing.

  22. Harry Says:

    Kam I should have taken Wayne and your earlier advice. I had purchased hgu@ around 7.32 and should have sold when Wayne said he was in inverse. I did not think with all the money input that it would fall. So because I seem to like punishment do you see an even lower point for the price before I average up? Thanks appreciate yours or any one who wishes to comment.

  23. Muntazir Says:

    Hi Kam,
    I think you had asked about ipl & do not know if anybody answered you.
    Watched BNN marketcall with Christine Poole & she said that ipl doing capital project & have not yey signed shipment contract + price of ethane is down. These 2 factors weighing price of ipl down. You can watch the show its in the 1st 10mins. My wife owns since Peter Briger recomended in 2010 ( has traded in/out) & looks christine’s firm holds it as well.Hope this helps & thanks for update on hgu.

  24. Eve Says:

    Harry,

    I sent out info to people I email with from this site – a week ago – about there being a bear flag on the chart of GDX – I also sent them a picture of the GDX daily chart with 5 bear flags circled on it going back to November 2012 in which the last 4 bear flags have played out as they should play out – which is going down in price once the bear flag pattern gets completed.

    The 5th bear flag is the most recent one from this month and January – it is currently playing out RIGHT NOW! The SAME is playing out on the chart of HGU.TO – a bear flag!

    The bear flag flag pole on HGU goes from “around” Jan 22nd (price of $7.32) to “around” Jan 28th (price of around $6.35) – so, about $1 for the pole. It could be argued though that there is a bigger bear flag that has the bottom of the pole being completed around the end of January at price low of $6.22.

    So, the flag pole length is between $1 to $1.10 roughly speaking.

    The flag part goes up from there until the first week of Feb and has a high price in that period of $6.59.

    So, you take the high point of the flag part and you subtract the height of the flag pole to get the price target of the bear flag. This is not anything EXACT in price – so, the price target may be 20 cents or so higher or lower of the calculation I am giving. But with this calculation, then the bear flag target would be to go to $5.59 to 5.49 in price (give or take 20 cents).

    The bottom of the keltner 3.0 price is at $5.70 – so, both the bear flag price target AND the keltner 3.0 bottom price “suggest” that HGU “shouldn’t” have THAT much further to fall before a bounce is seen. BUT, this bounce up could just be another bear flag in the making rather than having any kind of siginificant bounce up in price! So, this should be known.

    Also, bear flags tend to play out about 90% of the time (ie. dropping in price once they’ve formed)- BUT they only make it to their price targets about 75% of the time.

    Here is a site where you can visually see what a bear flag looks like on a chart:

    https://www.google.ca/search?q=bear+flags+images&hl=en&tbo=u&rlz=1C1AFAB_enCA476CA478&tbm=isch&source=univ&sa=X&ei=wywVUYjEGam4yQHvkoDgAg&ved=0CDEQsAQ&biw=1366&bih=643

    Hope this helps!

    Eve

  25. Eve Says:

    Hi Muntazir,

    Both Christine Poole and Peter Brieger work at the same firm – they call each other their “partner”. So, that’s why you’ll have them both giving the same recommendations on the same stocks and the same opinions on them.

    Same thing too with Barry Schwartz and David Baskin – they both work at Baskin Financial (owned by David Baskin).

    Eve

  26. Harry Says:

    Eve—-Thank you! Old habits are hard to break I have owned this with Slava at $11.20 and rode it down to June and then back up to $10 and got out with a very small profit($400) and lots of restless nights. It looks like another ride. Appreciate your input and don’t be a stranger. Best of health to you Harry from Oshawa.

  27. Roy Says:

    Is anyone here able to give me a TA of CLNE on the Nasdaq. Thanks.

  28. Eve Says:

    Roy,

    Bear flag on daily chart of CLNE – formed from Jan 14th to around Feb 11th or so. Flag pole has about $2 in length – and high point of the flag is at $13.62 –

    so, the price target of the bear flag is at $11.60′s. It might not get there as there is strong support in the $11.90′s – but that is the target nonetheless.

    The bear flag started to play out by dropping after it had formed – it remains to be seen whether it will drop to its price target OR even if it will drop further from here (but it looks like it will from the daily chart).

    Read about bear flags in my post today to Harry – that should help.

    Keltner 3.0 bottom price is at $11.91 which is also where price support is. So, it may go up from there if it goes down that far (as the price falls though, the keltner 3.0 bottom price will go lower too – so, need to keep that in mind).

    Wait til it gets oversold on full stochastics at under 20 (currently at 51.68) before you buy – if it gets to $11.90′s though and stochastics isn’t yet in oversold zone BUT the stock bounces up from there, then it will most likely be safe to buy it at that point – BUT, please keep in mind the bear flag target price.

    Here’s the chart with full stochastics plus keltner 3.0 on it:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CLNE&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p92796613276

    Eve

  29. Eve Says:

    Thanks Harry – I appreciate that :)

    Slava still likes to play GDX (no longer HGU) – she’s the original person I made the picture for of the 5 bear flags – after that, I sent it to the group in case anyone was wanting to play the golds.

    Eve

  30. kam Says:

    Hi Muntazir,
    re-ipl.un
    Thanks for the reply. Yes I asked Canuck2004 some days ago when it dropped to 22 and went thru keltner bottom.I checked its past and other pipelines and saw nothing with them so i just closed eyes believed on keltner 3.0 and bought it at 22.10 and still holding it. Good to know what could be the reason that it fell.
    I asked Canuck because he owns them all so maybe he knows more.But I haven’t seen him posting after that day so maybe he went back to climbing mountains or driving car on a log or something.

  31. kam Says:

    Hi Harry,
    I can’t advice anyone on gold stocks man I lost money on them.I just post and warn about them every some days.I don’t know where the bottom is. last year we thought that $11 should be the bottom and it end up at $6.15! but this year although gdx to down to 52 week low but who says it can’t go to 35 or 30? hard to tell but we have to keep our options open. Only thing I can say is just from a buy low thing is that I like GDX better at $40 than at $50 last year.

    I think its all about gold now.Money has gone out to stocks and gold is falling and maybe Chinese start buying it. George soros sold half of his gld holding and GLD filled the gap at bottom. So when these guys think GDX is too cheap they will have it back towards $50 and sell it to us there.At that moment all these “gdx to $80, gold stocks are too cheap so buy buy buy”talking heads will come out and big guys will short it and take it back toward 40 or less.
    I got out of my hgu another day with 2 cents loss(one of many) when I had a feeling that it has no power to go up. Glad I did. I am not bearish on them but I stopped buying their BS that they will fly.I am sure you might get chance to average down no need to rush. You might be able to buy it at $35.36 or $36.45 gdx equi. Season is not here either but seasonality can be made up by Einhorn tomorrow if he says gold/gdx is too cheap.
    later

  32. Muntazir Says:

    Hi Kam,
    Canuck for sure knows more than me. I came across reason so I posted. About gold stocks see what Eve says ( i have made some $ listening to her analysis in the past)
    Michael,
    Thanks for analysis on slw. Was thinking to add after report in march as I expect they might displease the market ( I know its too early to think).34 souns good entry point.
    Hi Eve,
    Nice to see your posts. Hopefully Rami sees them. BTW I am aware christine & Peter are partners ( thats why I mentioned them together).

  33. dmp Says:

    Hi Tony,

    Thank you very much for your detailed information in post #2 on trading the 18 day m.a. I will start to study this more closely and hopefully utilize it in the future.

    Can you suggest a TSX 60 stock that you have traded with this stategy?

    Thank you for your time.

  34. tony Says:

    The golden trade…

    To quote Don “The sweet spot for …” Gold has one major event that comes around twice a year and its wedding/engagement season, and the wedding season happens in india in the fall and engagement season at xmas then there is a small sweet spot that happens prior to february 14th.

    so if you want to trade this pattern you must be willing to move in before the producers need the stuff this happens in August/sept then wait for the retracement to move in oct/nov to before xmas and then after the holidays. look at the chart starting in august and you’ll be amazed.

  35. tony Says:

    DMP

    I played slf, NA, tlm in the last 2 years,

    but to do this I was occasionally playing the game against the big boys but since the 18MA was my reference I knew where to exit my trades with the least damage possible.

    take the SLF (US cousin)trade that I called in december 2011, I got in at the cross above the 18MA and it broke above the 50MA so I held it but every time it pulled below 18MA I exited the trade not asking my self will the 50MA hold on a pullback just to renter back the trade a few days later with small loss of gains, as I had to repurchase at commission + the gain that I had to pay up for if any as it broke above the 18MA the 50MA was its biggest support but in april once I got out as usual once it broke below the 18MA but it came and broke below the 200MA. At this point to renter the trade I had to wait for the price to climb back above the 18MA I could have bought it back as it moved back above the 200MA but I got skeptical so I said to my self we can wait miss a few $ in gains but its worth seeing how it will play itself out.

    and less then a month later it broke below the 50MA so I waited it out
    until it broke above the 18MA I got back in the month of june I made close to 1$/sh then I made another 7$ since it broke out in august. so basically I made around 11$ plus some of the dividend so its nice making 11$ when you know the stock is only worth 18 when you start the trade.

    NA.to this was more complicated to figure out.
    from Dec 2011 to May 2012 I got bumped out 3 times but from june til now,
    good golly at first was hard to trade as it felt like a heart monitor jumping up and down the 18MA so at one point I decided to look at what was the worst scenario in june I have found that it never broke less then 1$ below the 200MA so I set up my stop loss at 1.50 below it. since it got away I have now set the 50MA as my stop loss.

  36. Roy Says:

    Thanks very much for your response Eve.

  37. Larry Says:

    Eve, great to see you on the site. You mentioned Slave…does she still visit here?
    I have been away for too long. Postings on the site seem to be down quite a bit.
    Good to see Tony and others are still here. Keep up the good work, everyone. I still enjoy reading your posts.

  38. Eve Says:

    Thank you Larry :)

    Yes, Slava “occassionally” comes here to say hi to everyone – but it’s very infrequently. I don’t know when she was last here but I’m thinking it may have been for Christmas or New Year’s?? Not sure though.

    I haven’t written on here in months – just saw a couple of posts that were easy analyses to give, so, I thought I’d help out. I’m not going to be here regularly – but thank you Larry nonetheless :)

    Eve

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