ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Wednesday February 20th
U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 1 point in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for January Housing starts was 910,000 versus 973,000 in December. Actual was 890,000. Consensus for January Producer Prices was an increase of 0.3% versus a decline of 0.3% in December. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. Ex food and energy, consensus for January PPI was an increase of 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in December. Actual was an increase of 0.2%.
The U.S. Dollar moved higher and commodity prices moved lower in overnight trading. Gold fell another $12.30 per ounce and its 50 day moving average fell below its 200 day moving average (The so called death cross).
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Office Depot and OfficeMax have agreed to merge in a share exchange. Each OfficeMax share will be converted into 2.69 shares of Office Depot.
Staples added $0.15 to $14.80 after Citigroup upgraded the stock from Sell to Neutral.
Toll Brothers fell $0.89 to $36.01 after reporting less than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings.
Royal Bank is expected to open higher after Barclays upgraded the stock from Underweight to equal weight.
Interesting Charts
Strength in the U.S. Dollar continues to have a significant impact on commodity prices.
Silver and its related ETFs broke support to reach a seven month low.
The Canadian Dollar also broke support to reach a seven month low.
The VIX Index also broke support to reach a six year low.
Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column
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Not Settling
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach
I have always envied the “chutzpa” of people who will take huge risks. For me they are heroes of human spirit, because they challenge themselves well beyond the norm of society, very often leaving a trail of extraordinary benefits for many. These are the scientists, the producers, the artists, the builders and yes, the traders.
Seeing the movie Avatar, I imagined what it must have been like behind the scenes to produce this groundbreaking film. Years of what seemed like endless negotiating, sleepless nights, incredible amount of monetary and personal risks all hanging on the balance of the few that would finally give their few words of critique. Fortunately, everyone seemed to win.
I also saw the movie Up In The Air that was all about an organization that was hired by firms that were downsizing to fire people. Seeing the actors portray and represent the many people who lose their jobs was disheartening. One character stood out when it was pointed out that he could finally do what he really wanted to do and that was to become a chef. Yes, he settled in a job for the sake of others and not to fulfill his dream and wound up losing in the end.
The balance between being responsible and also taking risks to fulfill your dream is not easy for most. The fact is most people settle for jobs they do not want, especially now with the threat that there are not very many jobs to be had. Many who have the dream of becoming a trader put their dream aside and settle for a life of mediocrity.
Then there are those who take the risk knowing that each step of the way will be a new challenge that they are willing to face. Bill is one of those trading heroes that I have had the pleasure of knowing and coaching.
Bill announced one day to his family that he wanted to fulfill his dream of becoming a trader. He said that it would mean sacrifice for everyone, but in the end they would have a much more rewarding life than they presently had. The steps the family took were as follows:
1. They would live on half of his income while he studied to become a trader and save the other half for the start-up of his trading business.
2. His wife would work in sales and her bonus would go into the trading account.
3. The children would take part-time jobs to pay for any of their own expenses.
4. Bill asked for half time responsibilities at his work, while he started his new career as a trader.
With half of their savings and the savings that they accumulated in that year they had $100 K for his new trading business. Bill earned $35K his first year in trading and by the third year the family had a better life style than when they started the plan.
It has now been ten years. Bill’s wife is enjoying her dream of being a sculptor. The children are in private schools. The family takes two exciting vacations a year. Bill has trained two other young men as traders and has become a community philanthropist.
Settling is not always the safest way to live your life, and it is certainly not the most rewarding. There is always risk to your choices in life. Choose to take the risk of living your dream.
Adrienne’s Free Webinars
Adrienne presents free webinars on the psychology of trading
Email Adrienne@TradingOnTarget.com
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Has the rotation out of bonds begun”? Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/19/has-the-rotation-out-of-bonds-begun/
An Interview with David Skarica
Enclosed is a new interview I recently did with Smart Stock about the great valuations in junior miners at the moment, giving specific examples.
CLICK HERE to listen to the interview.
Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2013 Investor’s guide is available by ordering through www.alphamountain.com , Amazon or Books on Business.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated recently.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Following is an example:
Crude Oil Futures (CL) Seasonal Chart
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FUTURE_CL1 Relative to the S&P 500 |
FUTURE_CL1 Relative to Gold |
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. 
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC February 19th 2013
![clip_image002[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/clip_image00251.png "clip_image002[5]")
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February 20th, 2013 at 9:28 am
“So the strategist expects the “real McCoy” in terms of the shift out of bonds will come from higher growth and tighter monetary policy.
He warned that investors should not follow the recent negative momentum in bond prices, since a repeat of 2012′s saw-tooth pattern for yields could be easily repeated.”
From the link above from the F.P. Trading Desk.
February 20th, 2013 at 11:00 am
Will it ever return?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNV.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p35271959993
February 20th, 2013 at 11:36 am
CJ
Franco Nevada doesn’t seem to be too much different from most of the other miners out there right now, precious or not. ABX, TCK, HBM etc, all down signficantly, and many of these miners, such as TCK, seem to have changed from upwards trending over the last few months to downwards. It may take a while to find a bottom. I don’t think the miners are in fashion at the moment.
February 20th, 2013 at 12:06 pm
uga trading volumes; so I was looking at google finance’s data – its wrong!
went to the nyse itself, trades in the 10′s of thsnds.
anyone in on the gasoline trade?
February 20th, 2013 at 12:19 pm
Brian #3 – Thanks – trying to decide if I should take a big loss or ride it out until the next upswing. Think I better bite the bullet ……………..again
February 20th, 2013 at 12:39 pm
CJ, re#5
I’m in a similar position with G.TO. I also own bullion.
Feel like I’ve been sold a bill of goods by the goldbulls (and my broker) for some time now. I should have got out a while back when Kitco talked about a ‘mysterious Asian selling’.
February 20th, 2013 at 12:45 pm
CJ Always a tough decision. Especially when in a loss position. But.. You can always sell now and re-buy later. After the stock is hitting an upstride again. I was trading TCK again, after riding it up from December thru to January. Missed the big drop, re-bought and should have made a few dollars last week when it popped up some, but held it too long and sold for a slight loss. I’m probably staying out of it now, as it looks to be definitely in a downward trend.
February 20th, 2013 at 1:38 pm
CJ
It is hard to sell at a loss – guess we all face doing that at some time and it is a difficult decision.
Personally, when I am dealing with a loss, I ask myself… is there something else I can buy where I can make my money back faster? That is usually my first question. I also ask myself if I can offset my loss by buying something else which of course assumes I have the cash to do so.
For example, since I am holding a little HAO – China small cap, today I bought a small position in YANG which is a 3x China Bear which is on a buy signal from UpTrend and also crossed the 18dma (Tony’s rule).
Also I bought a little XMD and SMN – materials bears today for a defensive move – not that I own any materials but this sector seems weakest at the moment.
Not making any recommendations here – just sharing my extremely humble strategy.
February 20th, 2013 at 1:45 pm
CJ I think Tawny has a good outlook on dealing with a loss. I usually ask myself, if I was to buy any stocks today, would it be this one, that I’ve got the loss on? Or another? Or cash? If the answer is different than the stock I’ve got a loss on, then you should sell and re-buy something else, or go to cash. $20 for both transactions to buy another stock, or less on many services. If the answer is that you might rebuy the same stock, then stick with it.
February 20th, 2013 at 1:45 pm
CJ – tough market, I am in the same boat w SLV. I married it when I should have just dated
I wrote down Tony’s 50 ma cross rule so I (hope) I don’t do it again. That said, there was a pretty powerful buy at 10:45 for metals. See if it holds or short covering
February 20th, 2013 at 2:55 pm
Hi Harry/Wayne
Re-HGU
Harry I think few days ago we were talking about HGU and where to buy it when it was trading around 5.70-80. Today at 5.30. I hope you haven’t bought yet to average down.The buy order I have around 5.50 I cancelled it same day.Now I wrote about gdx might go to $35.37/57.That is all pure technical. It is 61.8% retc.point of gdx’s all time low of $15.83 and high of $66.98.All time low close is $16.37 and high close is $66.63 so its 61.8% rect is $35.57. both close to each other.So if it keep falling it might stop at $35.50ish. Which put HGU at 4.60-70 and NuGT at $4.60-4.70 area too.
Maybe we should ask ‘Wayne’ to let us know when he sells his DUST in his wife’s account. He got guts to hold it till last blood drop. That might give us where the end might be.
Both gold and GDX are under extreme keltner and oversold on rsi too. So there might be a snapback but don’t try today. i will wait atleast tomorrow to see the effect of this “fed minutes” news overnight on gold and where is it trading tomorrow.
So Wayne if you reading this lets hear you comments on gold and nugt/dust too.
February 20th, 2013 at 4:38 pm
Brian/ONT #7/#9
Water coming in over the big picture window and because the baseboard electric heater is along that wall, had to turn off heat. Then I shoveled part of the snow/ice off the flat roof over the family room; while still perspiring from that task, the hospital called and asked me to get Gord in to have a holter monitor attached.
So I did finally get around to selling FNV.to – at a greater loss than earlier *sigh*
Used the proceeds to get back into PPL.to so I can hopefully gain a little there as well as get the Dividend. Had I the cash – would have bought PPL yesterday and let FNV ride out the storm…
Russia is hording Gold – maybe that effects the market price somehow?
February 20th, 2013 at 4:49 pm
Tawney #8
Appreciate your sharing Tawney; I have to sell something to buy something – no cash on the side and home expenses high with huge oil & hydro bills for a few more months yet!
Everything still in the red, so selling to buy always means more losses.
Have been doing better of late, book losses reduced by 3K so far,
My EUO bear still climbing, but not out of the woods yet!
Commissions $CDN range from 10.72 to 12.18 – always a consideration when buying or selling. $US Commissions 9.95
How’s the neck doing?
February 20th, 2013 at 4:54 pm
Stan #10
Sorry to hear of your Silver leaky boat ride Stan
Everything was heading South today, Everyone keeps suggesting we take profits – HAH! None to take and February has another week & a bit to go. This must be the February Blahs they talk about 
February 20th, 2013 at 7:18 pm
Kam——I have not bought but getting close. Like I said I seem to like punishment. I never thought $4.60 or anything under $5 would be achieved. Time will tell. Thanks for keeping me on my toes. I need another gunslinger to show me the way. Harry from Oshawa
February 20th, 2013 at 8:09 pm
http://theuptrend.com/Market-Top-20130220.htm
February 20th, 2013 at 8:11 pm
What I see after today’s action:
Both tsx and s&p had ALMOST bearish engulfing candles – though technically I suppose “almost” may not mean anything.
On the tsx, the 8ema is downtrending and distancing from the 20sma; the macd is increasing it’s downturn from the signal line; the recent trend of volume on downdays being higher than volume on updays continues; Bollinger bands are the tightest they have been in the last year, perhaps signaling a break out is near (though these can, of course, stay tight for a long time).
On the s&p – todays action confirmed the recent negative divergence on RSI and Macd; Macd looks to have broken below the signal line; again, down day volumes are greater than recent upday volumes. However, the 8ema remains above the 20sma. Bands appear to be tightening but only slightly.
In sum, S&P appears to still be in better shape than tsx (no big surprise), but I think at this point I would not be committing new (long)to either. Iwould be taking profits, or losses and leaving in cash awaiting a bit more determination as to what may happen over the next little while.
Comments re: the above would be most welcome.
February 20th, 2013 at 8:20 pm
Tawny
Thanks for the “uptrend”
You must have posted just as I was ’cause it wasn’t there when I started typing. Anyway, looks like message is basically the same. He’s just WAY brighter and more knowledgeable than I am. I knew the VIX spiked, obvious that it would, just forgot to mention it.
February 20th, 2013 at 9:20 pm
Darn never ever trade when
February 20th, 2013 at 9:41 pm
OOOOPppssss!!!
Darn never ever trade when:
1 you are sick
2 you can’t monitor every night to set up your stop losses.
since for the second time in less then a month my sinus congestion is doing its work on me sigh!!! I wasn’t up to it to check my stop loss signals, since I set them up daily I’ve forgot to set it up yesterday for today so I took in right in the family jewels on that one.
As it fell 95cent/share today grrrrr but I am down 86cents, I could have managed a 30cents loss.
But I still have a chance and here is why the 200MA is 46cents below todays closing price (it rebounded off the 200MA last time) and, AND I’m only down 3.79% so I can still sustain that extra 46cent loss as it would mean I will have to sustain a 5.8% loss
I still can’t believe my eyes I, tony dropped the ball on this one.
but I had the chance yesterday to liquidate my position when I saw it move south of the 50MA people remember if it can’t move above a MA simply get out and wait for another opportunity.
February 20th, 2013 at 9:52 pm
CJ
EUO it needs to break above the if it breaks above 18.75(not to say 18.71) it will move to 20.
fnv
last ride up it barely made it above the 18MA, needed to break above the 50 to make it worth your while, and 3 days ago when it moved below the 200MA that was get the heck out of here take the extra 10 in commission but not the extra 3$/sh 3 shares of this one and you paid the commission. imagine the rest…
tza
if it breaks the 10,76 look for a 20% move if it doesn’t move all the way 16$ (60%)
February 20th, 2013 at 9:55 pm
Tony
I must be missing something in post above as I don’t know what “it” is????
February 20th, 2013 at 10:02 pm
Stan
take note that not every stock trades the same some will react better the 18MA others on the 50MA…
but be sure to not take chances in buying something because its above the 50MA with a 30% difference I have seen some stocks like that as I was under the impression that being above the 50 was a good idea at the time, but little did I know that if they walk the plank, they will dive in to a sea of red ink and took a 30% hair cut, but if memory serves me right others took a bigger hit then me. I think the stock doesn’t trade anymore.
February 20th, 2013 at 10:45 pm
Tawny,
I think as tony said he is sick and have sinus so quite possible he was talking to himself and just typing at same time,haha. We might never know what “it” was? I also wondered what it was but as the day worked today it can’t be a bear etf.
February 20th, 2013 at 11:16 pm
StagDeflation re #4. I’m in the gasoline trade. Entered a bit late, on the breakout over $62 once it held for a few days. Hope this will be support going forward through April.