Tech Talk for Wednesday February 27th 2013

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday February 27th

U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 2 points in pre-opening trade. Traders are waiting for Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s second day of testimony on monetary policy.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of January Durable Goods Orders report. Consensus was a decline of 4.0% versus a gain of 4.3% in December. Actual was a decline of 5.2%. Ex transportation, consensus was a gain of 0.2% versus an increase of 1.0% in December. Actual was a gain of 1.9%.

Target fell $1.55 to $62.40 despite reporting higher than expected fourth quarter earnings.

Google gained $5.57 to $795.70 after Bank of America/Merrill upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Target price was raised from $790 to $920.

 

Technical Watch

Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT) – $62.40 fell 2.6% in pre-opening trade despite reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock recently has tested its all-time high at $65.05. The stock remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of February. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $60.96.

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Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) Seasonal Chart

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An update on Canada’s Banks

Bank of Montreal started the fiscal first quarter earnings report period ending January on a positive note. Consensus was $1.46 versus $1.42 per share last year. Actual was $1.52, a gain of 7.0%. BMO also surprised with a dividend increase, the second increase in the past six months. Stock market response to the report was encouraging. The stock continues to outperform the TSX Composite Index and once again is testing its all-time high at $63.98.

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Fiscal first quarter earnings reports by Canada’s remaining “Big Six” are scheduled to be released during the next week. Four banks are scheduled to release results on Thursday: Commerce Bank, National Bank, Royal Bank and Toronto Dominion. Scotia is scheduled to release results next Tuesday.

Analysts are not expected much. Consensus estimates show an average gain in the quarter on a year-over-year basis is 5.0%. Analysts also are predicting dividend increases by at least two of the remaining banks.

Seasonal influences for the TSX Financial Services Index turns positive at this time of year until mid-April. Following is a nine year seasonality study on the TSX Financial Services Index:

S&P/TSX Capped Financial Index Seasonal Chart

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On the charts, the TSX Financial Services Index continues to lead the TSX Composite Index.

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Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated recently.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

Dow Jones Transportation Average Index (^DJT) Seasonal Chart

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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC February 26th 2013

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Sponsored By...



28 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday February 27th 2013”

  1. Doug Says:

    Ana,

    Thanks for your response on NatGas yesterday.
    I just simply avoid trading on Thursday since I found it was a quite big gambling.
    Stop loss did not work very well on Thursday because
    1) Price move too quick to stop smaller loss
    2) Price can spike on one way and shortly after spike on the other way like last Thursday (Feb21)

    Doug

  2. tony Says:

    Ana

    Do I see what you see,? I see lots of things.

    here is what I see.

    1st it just broke its downside trend
    2nd I see two Supports
    Big support at the 200MA
    and if you draw a line at 3.10 yoiu have another support

    3rd I see a W shape

    4th we have been trading in a range between 3.10 and 3.6 area for the l;ast 2 months

    5th Price is trading above the 18MA and above the 50MA

    6th indicators aren’t ready yet as some are positive others in the middle

    Support can also be draw

  3. Paul Says:

    Tony, I so appreciate your generosity. If you don’t mind, could you assess
    Reitmans (RET.a.to), Shaw (SJR.b.to), Penn West (PWT.to) and Pengrowth (PGF.to).
    I’ve held all 4 in my sisters RRSP for a long time (with poor results in 3 of the cases)
    and am wondering what a prudent brother would do at this time.
    Also, whats your current thinking of the outlook for March ?
    Some gurus (eg: Marc Faber etc) are expecting a reasonable pullback prior to
    a further move higher. Do the futures suggest this ? Would you wait to purchase
    longer period holds ?
    Thank you. Paul

  4. Ana Says:

    Tech Talk,
    I posted three charts yesterday on $Nat Gas, and still my comment is being moderated. Why do you moderate comments with more than one chart. Your blog is slowly wasting away, perhaps this is one reason why.
    Please check out the links, one of them is to equity clock.
    When people ask for help, on the market, they are bleeding and can not wait for a day for a message to be moderated.
    Just a suggestion to improve the blog!

  5. tony Says:

    Ana

    a suggestion is to submit a post for every link you set up

  6. Doug Says:

    Tony,

    Thanks for technical analysis.

    doug

  7. Doug Says:

    Ana,

    Thanks. I can not see your link here. I guess you have put link to seasonality chart. I wish I had reviewed the chart before I put a position.

    doug

  8. Ana Says:

    Doug,
    http://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_energie_naturalgas.html

  9. Ana Says:

    Doug,
    http://equityclock.com/pictures/NaturalGasFuturesNGSeasonalChart_D74/image.png

  10. Ana Says:

    Doug,
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NATGAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p28220542130

  11. Tawny Says:

    Ana

    Re: LINKS. Wow, I hear your frustration. Not sure why they do this. However, knowing that they do monitor if more than one link, and I suspect there is a good reason for it, it is easy enough to post them separately in successive posts.

  12. Tawny Says:

    Ana

    So you were doing just that as I was writing. LOL

  13. Doug Says:

    Ana,

    Thanks for posting these links. Ng has been very bullish so far today. I guess it will be stable at this price 3.53 until tomorrow’s storage report.

    doug

  14. mark Says:

    I see links to seasonal charts above but am wondering how you use them when (as DV points out)seasonality is basically upside-down in post election years: ie.sideways to down in winter then up in spring-summer!(buy when snow goes?:-))Anyone?

  15. mark Says:

    This is what I am referring to btw: http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones_postelection.html versus http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_dj_ia.html

  16. Roy Says:

    Hello
    What would you recommend someone do that has 5000 dollars and wants to invest in something? Thanks

  17. Freddebuoy Says:

    Roy, far more information needs to be provided before anybody can answer your questions with meaningful information.

    Is the money in a registered or non-registered account?
    Is it long term or short term money – how long before you need it for something else?
    Is it part of a larger/smaller account?
    What is your risk tolerance?

    These are just a few questions that need answering, and some of them have many more nuances.

  18. tony Says:

    Roy

    5K

    buy an sector etf, as it is to risky puting money in stocks

    I know I have some experience in the field of losing money,

    here are two examples…

    dml.to needed was beaten up by a simple earthquake in Japan took a 30% hair cut.

    FNM took the tresury the weekend to say its they would it was to risky took a 90% hit.

    if you simply chose the good sector but the wrong stock you will lose more money than uyou can imagine.

    so by playing with etfs non levered etfs you will make money no matter how bad the earnings of a company are you have 70% invested in other other products.

  19. tony Says:

    I will add to FreedeB

    never take more then 6% punishement as risk tolerance.

  20. Tech Talk Says:

    Hello Ana,
    Thanks for your comment. Unfortunately due to the hundreds of spam comments that come into the comment section on a daily basis, we have to implement simple filtering rules in order to protect the integrity of the daily reports. One of the most common traits of spam is multiple links, hence the reason comments go into moderation. What I would suggest is to feel free to use multiple posts to publish multiple links. Alternatively, if your comment has not been moderated within a reasonable amount of time, feel free to email us (keeping in mind that we have day jobs to attend to as well).

    For now, I have loosened the filtering rules to 3 links before moderation occurs and we can monitor the effectiveness of this new rule over the coming days.

  21. Ana Says:

    Doug,

    “Ng has been very bullish so far today. I guess it will be stable at this price 3.53 until tomorrow’s storage report.”

    I do not think that NG is ever “stable!” That is why it is a day traders dream! It sucks, though to be down in NG, that is why I have split my trades into 4 positions.
    So, that I can average down or up and so, that I can split quickly when I am in a poor position.

    The weather is bullish for natgas though, because of the consumption and production. “Feeze-offs” occur when it drops below freezing at well locations, especially around the Gulf of Mexico.

  22. Ana Says:

    20.

    Thank you for your reply! I did not know about the “spam comments.” (Since I do not have my own blog.) Isn’t knowledge a wonderful thing!
    I guess we all have day jobs and some of us have night jobs! :D

  23. Neil AB Says:

    So, I am going to one of Larry Berman’s trading seminars tonight (finally, something to do in Edmonton on a Wednesday night!). Has anyone out there been to one? Being “free” I am really hoping it isn’t just a sales pitch of some sort – can’t imagine that it is but you wonder what the motivation is for doing free stuff. Anyway, if anyone would like my impressions of the seminar just post a note and I’ll be happy to share my thoughts on it.

  24. Mavis Says:

    Hi Neil:

    Yes I went to on in Vancouver last year. If it’s similar to that you might find it interesting. The first part was lead by Ziad who is one sharp young man with plenty of trading information to teach. The second part is Larry who is as articulate as you see him on BNN and he’s totally free with his knowledge. At the end they had questions. I didn’t stay ’till the very end but I understand that they kept going until folks ran out of questions.

    There’s no hard sell and it’s a small part of the evening.

    Have fun!

  25. doug Says:

    Ana,
    now I am able to read your posts of yesterday. Thank you.
    you are right. naughty gas is never stable. Look at how it danced today. I will try your approach which split trade into several positions. Thank you for sharing your experience.
    doug

  26. Hniel Says:

    Re: post 23. Yes I would love to hear the experience if you don’t mind sharing. btw, which one of your wives will you be taking with you. Sorry Neil, I just had to say it.LOL. Hniel/Kingston

  27. tony Says:

    Neil…

    any info is good info, so I will like to know what he had to say…

  28. krystyna Says:

    I would like to join the group, please. How can I get a password?

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