ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Tuesday March 5th
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 7 points in pre-opening trade.
Bank of America/Merrill reduced its 2013 target price for gold by 6.9% to $1,680 per ounce.
BMO Capital downgraded Cliff Natural Resources from Outperform to Market Perform.
Yahoo added $0.35 to $23.05 after Cantor raised its rating from Hold to Buy.
Susquehanna lowered its target on TransOcean ($53.17) from $61 to $58.
Qualcomm added $1.41 to $68.04 after announcing a 40% increase in dividend and a $5 billion share buy-back program.
Technical Watch
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) – $68.04 gained 2.1% after announcing a 40% increase in dividend and a $5 billion share buy-back program. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock is expected to break above $68.02 to an all-time high at the opening. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is neutral. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Seasonal influences in the month of March are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/clip_image0011.png "clip_image001[1]")
Interesting Charts
Lots of sector rotation yesterday! Selected sectors and their related ETF broke to new highs. Consumer related indices and their related ETF moving to new highs included Consumer Discretionary SPDRs and Consumer Staple SPDRs
Other sector SPDRs also closed at new highs, Health Care SPDRs and Utilities SPDRs. However, their strength is not necessarily positive for long term strength for U.S. equity markets. Traditionally, Health Care and Utilities historically have been weak at this time of the year. This year, they are market leaders. Seasonal influences are not happening as usual this year.
Most economically sensitive sectors and their relative ETFs had a rough day after China signalled plans to slow down the economic, particularly in the real estate sector. Rotation continues
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated recently.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Following is an example:
Utilities Sector Seasonal Chart
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UTILITIES Relative to the S&P 500 |
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC March 4th 2013
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March 5th, 2013 at 9:27 am
Don’t be fooled by comission free etfs
I always wondered how could bns and company offer etfs with no comission well the answer is simple instead of charging you a transaction fee they charge you a spread fee that you don’t see. as price of the etf is boosted.
March 5th, 2013 at 10:31 am
@ Tony
I do play the short side of the Vix but I have a mental block on it most of the time. My mind seems to focus on long plays and I miss the good short ones.
@ Kam
As long as you have a defined stop loss and you know your loss. playing the 2x ETFs is alot safer. Not holding overnight helps alot too.
March 5th, 2013 at 11:55 am
Lee, Kam and al.
here is an idea on how to trade with stop loss that I have learned recently…
You set up your stop loss below support and you do so by placing your stop according to your timeframe. if you trade on a daily chart you set it up 1.5 to 2x atr if you day trade 4x your timeframe atr
Basically if you buy vxx today currently it seems to have found support at around 22.16 the 5 min chart ATR is currently .12, so .12×4 = .48 -22.16 = 21.68
if you take cnq on a daily chart I would draw my support at around 30$ atr =.71 so 30-2x.71=28.58 and basically you’ve set up a 5% down side stop loss which goes with my theory of never letting losses become to big of a loss.
March 5th, 2013 at 1:13 pm
Tony, 5% is a generous stop limit for a swing trade. For a day trade I would not go larger than 1% or even .5%. Make your play on when you think it will take off. If it doesn’t take off when you think it will. Close the play immediately.
March 5th, 2013 at 1:29 pm
Lee
On a swing trade you don’t want to be picked up by agressive Market makers. the 5min example gives you a 2.2% loss but you won’t be picked up. if its a head fake play.
March 5th, 2013 at 2:08 pm
tony
Are you buying into this new Up move? Trusting it?
Markets sure can be perverse!
March 5th, 2013 at 2:45 pm
Hey, Antonio:
Do you remember my call for $SPX 1600? Interesting, right? Do you see any resistance here? Have a look at my Stockcharts Public charts. I am looking at 20 year charts for many of my big decisions. Follow me or vote for me if you wish. I have not activated button for daily notifications as that is only for daytraders. I want to save long-term investors from blowing their brains out next time there is a collapse so I am starting early. That is, predicting eventual tops. No fear right now, and we are a long way from acceleration on the downside. It should be an easy ride to the top line.
I will be updating my charts to inform my friends, family and buds and whomever else wishes to learn about the way markets really work. Just go there once in a while. Have a look at it. Tell me what you think.
http://stockcharts.com/public/1720655
Have fun, man!
Frank.
March 5th, 2013 at 2:57 pm
Tawny
I hate saying this but why battle the trend, when you can follow it. at least you don’t get to beaten up.
I have pre.to i’m up 5% in just over a week.
and am contemplating a few other companies. that are at a resistance high.
maybe we have a few extra positive weeks. in the last few years(except 2009) the market changed direction in early april.
we have two choices either we buy depressed assets or buy overbought assets.
something that is falling is always controled by the bears. something that is rising is always controled by the bulls. so I am going with stocks that are above their 18MA and have been rising. especially those that broke above resistance.
March 5th, 2013 at 3:28 pm
Tony #8
PRE.to steady as she goes – have held for quite a while, but enough shares to get into the green as yet!
PPL.to – nice bounce and took my profit today; will get a bit more (divs) on the 15th;
bought Telus and XFN.to today. Still under water thanks to big loss on FNV.TO – staying away from shiny metals for a long while
March 5th, 2013 at 4:15 pm
Frank
Impressive charts and well annotated. I will watch them so keep up the good work.
A little late to see them now, but never too late!
March 5th, 2013 at 4:16 pm
May you live in interesting times.
Equity prices are up on the major indexes.
Momentum indicators (MACD, RSI and Stochastics) are down for most indexes, S&P500, TSX, Dow, NYSE and many of the sectors.
The Advance/Decline line on the NYSE is trending down.
Volume on the NYSE has been trending down since the end of 2011.
AAII investor sentiment was extreme just a few weeks ago. This week it has dropped to less than 30%.
Clearly, the markets are abnormal. Who is going to win, the prices or all the indicators? Do you go long or short?
Fascinating.
March 5th, 2013 at 4:29 pm
Hey, Tawny:
Not late at all! I am way early as a matter of fact. I actually predicted this move up in markets long ago. Just look at the lines. Early on buys as well. I am talking long, long term. Also, have a look once in a while, you will see the big picture much better. “The money is in the Big moves!” Actually, some of the stuff you pay attention to, they also have a clue.
Enjoy.
Frank.
March 5th, 2013 at 4:33 pm
Freddebuoy:
Just look at your charts, never mind the noise. Your charts are better than most of the famous clowns out there. Look for the co relation to previous huge tops such as 2000 or 2008. I bet you find similarities.
Have fun
Frank.
March 5th, 2013 at 5:00 pm
Hey Man
great charts, as long as the charts are intact to be a cowboy and go on a limb trying to be the best contrarian as you can lose more then your shirt.
price is king so let it ride above the 18MA once it breaks get out thats my philosphy… and lets not forget the how much they earn as the more they earn the more it will increase if spx avg pe is around 14, so until we don’t get a 16-17 pe we are good to go.
recall Guy adami said we should see 1560 area as a possible resistance for spx.
March 5th, 2013 at 5:01 pm
Frank, I really enjoyed your charts and commentary in #7 and I hope you keep them coming. Too many of us concentrate on the short term without reference to the long term. Several market commentators have been predicting a big, big drop in the markets this spring, one of whom is Keith Richards.
We may or we may not have another month to go.
March 5th, 2013 at 5:07 pm
CJ
great call on pre its been a steady winner.
ppl I would have kept it… unless its about the ex-div is close by.
T is a winner. for the time being go 3-4% upside at a time and only time will tell
xfn seems to have broken its long time resistance but at the same time candlesticks looks like a shooting star maybe it will reverse.
fnv I would cut my loss and here is why as it decreases it will accelerate on its way down.
as I mentioned earlier when bears are in control they will push it lower and when bulls are in control they will push it higher. FNV is controlled by the bears.
March 5th, 2013 at 5:23 pm
#12. Frank
I wouldn’t dig my cleats in!
March 5th, 2013 at 8:31 pm
Freddebuoy:
Yes, thanks. However, don;t forget that when the markets come down, USD goes up, possibly up much more than people think. You never know — 80 or more. I am talking way out here.
Ana: (Oil is your fave, right? You and Jed Clampett) That’s it! That’s what we should call Wayne! But I digress. Yes, you also are correct. Please note I have told many people here and elsewhere that I sold almost all my Golds way back in 2011 and made money twice on the short side since then.
Also, although I thought originally that we would have an instant replay of 2007-2008, with Golds going up 1 more time while markets built tops, my lines were set long ago. We have breached that line with big sell volume along the way. About once every couple of weeks or so, I check the top 10 golds. They look horrific, with increased selling as they broke inportant levels. Stay away. My point about big picture is that I never guess tops or bottoms with my money. So on the golds, I will wait for higher highs and higher lows. I caught a little in August and September, then short in October.
I bet the Powers-that-Be will ruin all the late-comers to the Gold party, before they decide to buy once again. I wonder how many people will be talking about Gold’s demise by then. Interesting.
Have fun.
Frank.
March 6th, 2013 at 2:13 am
#18 Frank
I actually think that anytime the market has an achievement of any significance, it pulls back to try again another day. We will see tomorrow!
Volume was not that high today.