Tech Talk for Wednesday March 6th 2013

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Making a guest appearance on BNN television this afternoon at 4.30 eastern time, will be EquityClock’s Jon Vialoux.   Be sure to tune in for his views on the market!

Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday March 6th

U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 7 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures improved slightly following release of the February ADP Employment report. Consensus was a decline to 175,000 from 192,000 in January. Actual was a gain to 198,000. The report also is a predictor of the February employment report to be released on Friday.

Microsoft eased $0.17 to $28.18 after the company was fined $561 million Euros for antitrust violations in Europe.

Bristol Myers is expected to open higher after William Blair initiated coverage with an Outperform rating.

JC Penney fell $0.16 to $414.80 after Citigroup downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.

Qualcom eased $0.53 to $67.44 after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Conviction Buy to Buy.

Pembina Pipeline (PPL $30.46) is expected to open higher after RBC Capital upgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Outperform.

Best Buy gained $0.58 to $18.98 after Jefferies upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.

MasterCard dropped $1.39 to $525.71 after Argus downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.

Apple added $1.86 to $433.00 despite a downgraded by Berenberg Bank from Buy to Sell. Target was reduced from $800 to $360.

 

Interesting Charts

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded to an all-time high after moving above its 2007 high at

14,198.10.

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The NASDAQ Composite Index moved to a new high not seen since October 2000.

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Three more sectors and their related ETFs broke to new inter-day highs. The Industrial SPDRs closed at an all-time high.

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Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column

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All Things Are Not Equal

By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach

www.TradingOnTarget.com


Over the many years that I have worked as a trader’s coach, I have heard people tell me that their strategy makes money for other traders, but not for them. I have also heard innumerable times that a trader does not understand how other traders can make so much money in the markets when this kind of success alludes them.

Just because someone else makes money using a strategy does not mean
that you will earn the same profits.

Just because other people make huge amounts of money in the markets

does not mean that you will.

While these statements seem elementary, questions along this line keep coming my way.

Doing everything right, but still not making a profit

A trader by the name of Jim called me the other day and said that he had been trading for over ten years, but still was not making any money. He did admit that for the first two years he was cocky – thinking that he could just make decisions based on fundamentals. He figured that he was a smart guy having advanced his education to the level of having a doctorate in biotechnology. He kept up with three major newspapers per day, so he felt he was up on the trends of the markets.

The next three years Jim studied technical analysis and decided he was going to develop his own strategy. Naturally, he felt that he should be able to come up with a better strategy than anything out there in the markets, since he was such a highly educated man. Everything he tried was never good enough.

Jim was then at the next stage of his development and wanted to purchase a strategy from someone else. It took him two years to find a strategy and a trader he felt he could trust. He based this confidence on attending a seminar where there were graduates of the methodology who were all making great profits. Figuring that he was more intelligent than most of these traders, he believed that he should get even better results.

Jim attended a Webinar that I recently presented and asked me why others can make money from the strategy that he uses and he remains flat. The obvious answer is that he is not interpreting the strategy in the same way, not taking the same amount of risk or not following his own rules.

I happened to be aware of the strategy that Jim was following because I had several clients who were successful in following that strategy. The first problem was that this strategy was a highly discretionary strategy where intuition played a big part in its success. The second issue was that Jim did not take the same amount of risk on the better trades as the other traders. And finally, Jim tweaked the strategy to be able to conform to the hours of the day that he could trade.

Always on the other side of the trade

Another question that comes up frequently is, “Why am I always on the other side of the trade, even when I try to go against what I believe to be the right move?”

This question is difficult to answer, because many times unless you agree with the trader that he is unlucky or has a curse on him, there will be an argument. The fact is that there are only so many things that can be wrong with why a trader loses in the markets.

· The strategy does not fit his style or his resources

· He is not following the rules of that particular strategy

· The strategy has discretionary/intuitive elements that must be developed

· He has not developed a business plan, which has a set of rules for the markets for him to follow

· He has not overcome the psychological barriers that keep him from following his rules

· He is not willing to accept that one of the above issues is a problem for him

Conclusion

It is hard for some traders to imagine that there are many people earning a great deal of money from trading. If trading is not working for you, there is a reason, and if you are not willing to face up to that reason, you will continue to ask why you cannot make money from the markets.


Adrienne’s Free Webinars

Adrienne presents free webinars on the psychology of trading

Email Adrienne@TradingOnTarget.com

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated recently.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

Energy Sector Seasonal Chart

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ENERGY Relative to the S&P 500
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FP Trading Desk Headline

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Loonie set for a correction and significant buying opportunity”. Following is a link to the comment:

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/03/04/loonie-set-for-a-correction-and-a-significant-buying-opportunity/

 

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC March 5th 2013

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Sponsored By...



14 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday March 6th 2013”

  1. tony Says:

    Dow was up yesterday and is up today…

    every one who has been analyzing the dow are saying there is no double top or we broke above resistance, or volume are low

    well thats it every turn has happened with either an extreme low volume or high volume.
    and not because someone says buy buy buy or sell sell sell but because the volume has been at extreme levels.

    so let this market move highr and when you will see an extreme level of volume you should say to yourself there is no more room to grow as everyone that wasn’t in is finally in so its time to short the market.

  2. kam Says:

    Hi Goldies,
    GDX hit 61.8% level of $35.57 which I talked about and snapped back.Have to watch out now. So did nugt hit target of $4.72 and gone back. fingers are crossed and wait for how it closes. Gdx have fooled us before but Big boys can follow MR Fibonacci.

  3. Ana Says:

    For all those who trade Direxion EFTs:

    http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20120607/NY20980LOGO

  4. Freddebuoy Says:

    Tony, when the volume starts to drop off in a rising market (Dow) cover your assets. The market has become tired and buyers are losing interest or becoming worried. Then, to see really big volumes, watch as the market corrects – Wow! Take a look at what happened back in 2007 to 2009.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&st=2007-03-06&en=2010-03-07&id=p06948124305&a=295060053

    Now today’s market. Is there a reversal in the offing?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71448424709&a=295060053

  5. Harry Says:

    Tony—re 18/50 can you buy yamana because it moved above the 18 or do you have to wait for yri to cross the 50 also? Thanks for your TA.

  6. mick/nv Says:

    All I keep hearing in the media since Jan. is how the market is ready to correct, yet it keeps going up. If you say something long enough I suspect it will eventually happen, then you will hear, ‘ I told you so ..’ . The S&P has been in an upward trend since Oct 2011, with little corrections here and there, yet it still is making higher highs and higher lows

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p79791955155&a=286343867

    On a ytd basis, the S&P is up over 6%, the TSX which is essentially a resource based index is up 1.5% or so.
    I would be inclined to play the trend as long as possible, take profits based on your sell strategy. Even if the market drops 5 to 10%, it doesn’t mean that all stocks will drop, this is why it is important to have a good diversified portfolio, you may not get hit as much as you think.

  7. kam Says:

    Hi harry,
    If gdx stays like this I am gonna take a position in hgu today.It won’t be easy and hope it turns corner today. there was diversion in CCI atleast on daily chart of gdx. It is heading straight to its 9ma at $37.50 today and once shorts get scared ball start rolling. However it won’t be easy move up like last time. I hope it hit bottom at 35.57 the 61.8% retc. but it has fooled us before. regardless I have to take a position here with stop under 35.57.

  8. Harry Says:

    Kam——the very best to you. I am going to wait to average down I would still be at average of $6.57. I will check tomorrow looks like another ride like last summer.

  9. Harry Says:

    Wayne——-Long time no hear? Wondering if you are still in Dust or switch to Nugt. Don’t be a stranger? All the best to you.

  10. Neil AB Says:

    Mick/NV
    I caught Jon V. on BNN this aft. Contra the correction herd that you note and that we’ve all been hearing, he actually gave good reason to believe that this rally still has some legs. He suggested the upchannel is still well in place and that, in fact, it was looking, on the s&p, like a bit of a reverse head and shoulders which would suggest another 25 or 30 points higher. Don’t worry, you’re not alone.

  11. Neil AB Says:

    Kam
    RE: golds. Checked out GDX again today. Noted shallow double bottom which, more interestingly, shows a positive divergence on rsi (not confirmed on MACD). To me, this is not yet something to play yet, but is something to watch. Some say stocks lead the commodity (others, naturally, say the opposite). And, of course, “‘Tis not the season”. But, these rsi divergent shallow double bottoms are occuring on a number of the gold stocks. It would seem to portend a bit of an oversold rally. As I say, I’m not in yet (really trying to be disciplined with my triggers) , but watching closely.

  12. Tawny Says:

    Mick and Neil

    As I keep saying markets can be so perverse, often managing to do quite the opposite of what is expected.

  13. Muntazir Says:

    Frank,
    Thanks for post #7 yesterday. I have put in my favourites & will try to look regularly.
    Mick
    #6. I share same observation as you. Today was exception heard Irwin Michael on 680news say markets will go up & Neil on post 10.
    Kam,
    Looks you are bullish on gdx.Is it short term ( days) or medium(weeks)??
    TIA

  14. kam Says:

    Neil ab/muntazir,
    I am not bullish at all on GDX.I also saw divergence on CCI which I forgot to post here.
    Neil I saw that rsi divergence too but also is on CCI. Another thing the snap back from $35.57, 61.8% fibo to the penny amazed me. I didn’t expect it to stand a chance.I don’t know what it brings but gold stocks didn’t lose steam as the day passed even when spx and golds went down. It might mean nothing and tomorrow they screwup as been doing that for last few months but I am just trading probability.Buying at $37 is much better than riding all the way down from 50.
    In the end I am going to write what the great trader name “LIN’ says “the bottom of chart is not bottom of the price.” So yes, I have very little patience with this gold stocks trade but I am going to try it here. Where else to try than gdx even oversold on weekly chart and $bpgdm at 3.33. It is only one position and I am gonna put a stop under 4ma.

    http://scharts.co/YB4Tyd

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