Tech Talk for Thursday March 7th 2013

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday March 7th

U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 5 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved slightly higher following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for weekly Initial Jobless Claims was an increase to 355,000 from 347,000 last week. Actual was 340,000, down 7,000. Consensus for revised fourth quarter Productivity was an improvement to -1.6% from the initial estimate of -2.0%. Actual was -1.9%. Consensus for the January Trade Deficit was $43 billion versus a revised $38.14 billion in December. Actual was 44.45 billion.

Canada’s January Trade Balance was better than expected. Consensus was a deficit of $600 million versus a revised $330 billion in December. Actual was a deficit of $240 million. The Canadian Dollar gained 0.12 cents U.S. on the news.

The European Central Bank maintained its overnight lending rate at 0.50% and the Bank of England maintained its overnight lending rate at 0.75%.

Costco, TJX and Limited reported higher than expected February retail sales.

Methanex (NYSE:MEOH;TSX:MX) – $39.95 is expected to open lower after UBS downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.

Colgate Palmolive gained $2.09 to $117.44 after announcing a two for one stock split and a 10% increase in its dividend.

 

Interesting Charts

Finally, a strong short cover rally in the gold stocks from a deeply oversold level!

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Weekly Select Sector SPDRs review

Technology

· Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above $30.02.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral(with positive overtones)

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but trending up.

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Materials

· Intermediate trend is down.

· Units moved above their 20 and 50 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is negative but showing early signs of change.

· Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Consumer Discretionary

· Intermediate uptrend was confirmed when units moved above $51.23 to an all-time high

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from neutral to positive

· Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Industrials

· Intermediate uptrend was confirmed when units moved above $41.42 to an all-time high.

· Units remain above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from positive to neutral

· Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Financials

· Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a break above $17.94.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 has changed from neutral to slightly positive.

· Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Energy

· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 50 and 200 day moving averages and moved above its 20 day moving average.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from neutral to negative.

· Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Consumer Staples

· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive, but showing early signs of change.

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought.

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Health Care

· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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Utilities

· Intermediate trend is up.

· Units remain above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages

· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

· Short term momentum indicators are overbought.

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Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated recently.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

Technology Sector Seasonal Chart

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TECHNOLOGY Relative to the S&P 500
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Jon Vialoux on BNN Television Yesterday

Following is a link to the interview:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip879243

 

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

 

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC March 6th 2013

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15 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday March 7th 2013”

  1. tony Says:

    Harry

    I’m guessing your using an hourly time frame.

    if you put a 200MA this has been recent resistance or failed support on a 15min, 30min, 60min time frame.

    now from what I have learned we have a bullish engulfing bar followed by a 3 soldier step (three bars that moved higher)

    so these are bullish signs.

    but here is the bear case, our friend Frank would draw trend lines, and what do you think he would say this is a bearish trend channel that started on the week of feb 21st it made 3 lower highs 3 lower lows. Drawing these trend lines you should see the price always broke tru the 50MA so do I think the 50MA will be resistance here no, but resistance should be seen shy of 15.40 a pullback at that level would mean the trend didn’t brake so the bears will continue to control.

    finally we “aren’t in the sweet spot”
    So for the time being ride it but set a tight stop below the 50MA.

    one final tought is that the jan 28th feb 11th yri traded in a range so this range could be overhead.

    as I can not predict the future but just make wild guess not sure I would want to trade yri at this point in time to many bears at the moment.

  2. Michael Says:

    Hi all. I thought that I would follow up on my comments on SLW.to from a few weeks ago. Stochastics have generated a buy signal and there’s a gap (gaps tend to close 75% of the time) at $36.41 that could close, which is also the top of its downward trendline. Keep in mind that from mid-February to early April, silver tends to go down, tho silver hasn’t been following seasonality this year. They report on March 21, and they have a habit of reporting disappointing record earnings.

  3. tony Says:

    leaving for a few days so will try keeping contact but not sure when

  4. CJ Says:

    #3
    Safe Journey’s Tony!

  5. CJ Says:

    Tech Talk:

    The link above to BNN is NOT the Jon V. clip – can you post correct one please?

  6. Muntazir Says:

    Kam,
    Thanks for clarifying yesterday.
    Michael,
    Nice to see your post on SLW. Missed on Mon when went <31.
    Do you follow cgx as well or am I confusing you with another person??

  7. Roy Says:

    Safe trip Tony.

    Anyone here able to give a TA opinion on DOW.NY? Thanks

  8. Muntazir Says:

    CJ,
    Click on link. Next click video library. Choose wed & scroll down to 4.30 pm & voilla
    You have your video.
    Enjoy xlf

  9. CJ Says:

    #8
    Thank you Muntazir – found it!

    Am in XFN.to – still cash poor – especially in $us funds. XOP is beginning to look profitable, so perhaps I will be selling that in a few days and will look to XLF or XLY

  10. CJ Says:

    Roy #7

    I had a look at DOW and would not jump in here!
    50ma appears to be resistance.
    18ma is below 50ma.
    9ma turning up but not yet crossing 18ma
    of the 5 indicators I watch – only 2 are positive
    It would appear that the ending day chart confirms the SELL IF suggestion at American Bulls:

    http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=DOW&MarketTicker=NYSE&TYP

    Hope that is some help and not too late!

  11. Freddebuoy Says:

    Could any of you techies offer me an opinion as I’ve never seen this done before – does it make any sense?

    In checking out the Dow chart for Roy, I stumbled on a self-made comparison of $INDU with its correlation to $GOLD. Here’s the chart. What I get out of it is that there is a correction in the offing and it could be a biggie.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p98436104365

    Roy, based on the above, I’d be very cautious with the Dow. Many of the charts show little to be concerned with except that it is very overbought in the RSI, Stoch and MACD. Volumes are lowish but not seriously so, consistent with a continuation pattern and prices are riding the upper Bollinger, also consistent with a continuation.

    If I was in the advice giving business, I would say, don’t buy, wait for a correction. If you currently own a Dow ETF, take some money off the table, especially if you have made some.

  12. Michael Says:

    Hi Muntazir. Re SLW, stock futures are down right now, so you may get another chance at buying closer to $31.

    As for CGX, I unfortunately don’t own it or follow it; however, it’s a beautiful looking chart. A word of caution: there looks like there’s a gap around $32.45 that could fill; if it moves below that, it will likely be forming a downtrend.

  13. Neil AB Says:

    Sandvine – good looking chart

    I don’t own this stock though it is looking to me like close to a buy at this point.
    If you pull up a two year chart you will see it hit resistance Nov ’11; Mar ’12; and Apr ’12 (around 1.75-1.80) and couldn’t get through that resistance. It then broke through that resistance, finally, in Jan 13. It has since tested that level (resistance, now support) twice and bounced higher each test. This is very positive.
    DMX just flashed a buy signal, but it is not yet a buy for me. I am concerned about the neg. divergences on rsi and macd re: the latest highs and, for a buy I require both the Macd to cross its signal line and the 8EMA to cross the 20 sma.- these haven’t happened. But, it is getting close.
    I would think this is one that should be kept an eye on.
    I don’t know anything about the company. i think they are in the tech space but don’t know much about what they do there.
    I only mention this one because, chart wise, it is showing IMHO enough that one should be taking notice.

  14. Neil AB Says:

    Sorry,
    Just to complete my analysis – there is some minor resistance at 2.00 and 2.10 (or so) if it breaks through that and holds, then next major resistance is around 2.40. I think a break and hold through the minor resistance would most probably indicate a buy.

  15. Kam Says:

    Muntazir,
    re gold stocks.
    They are little suckers aren’t they!But I certainly think they should be close to bottom around this or $35 area(gdx) keeping in mind that bottom of chart doesn’t mean bottom of price,lol. If it won’t stand then $28 might be the next stop. As Michael said you will get another chance to get SLW within this price range or lower.I have one silver on radar too.
    My temporary commitment to gold stocks is off again.When they went up in first 10 mins of market open,I just moved my stop to 5.38 hgu hope to buy it cheaper later if hit because they just can’t fly from 35.57 to past 38 and never look back. Well my stop got hit within first 15 mins and I put a buy under 9ma of GDX equi. to hgu.to at 5.19 but just cancelled it. So my position in hgu turned out to be one night stand,lol. hey ,i have winning trade on hgu after few tries so can’t resist,haha.
    Being said that now I am actively watching them so will try again soon higher or lower than 5.38 i sold for.
    By the way “Nugt” will be $25 or higher soon by April.Crazy kam!!…

    … It is getting a 1 for 5 reverse split starting April 1,2013.

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