Tech Talk for Friday August 23rd 2013

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 23rd

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 1 point in pre-opening trade.

Canada’s inflation rate dipped slightly in July. Consensus for the year-over-year Consumer Prices Index was an increase of 1.4%. Actual was a gain of 1.3%. Consensus for month-over-month was an increase of 0.1%. Actual was unchanged.

Brookfield Asset Management (BAM $34.98) is expected to open lower after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform.

Staples slipped $0.11 to $13.96 after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral. Target is $15.00.

 

Interesting Charts

U.S. equity markets recovered from deeply oversold levels yesterday

· Stochastics at 4.83/2.89

· RSI recovered from below 30% to 31.15%

· MACD well below the zero line.

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The trading halt by NASDAQ clearly had a big impact on volume yesterday.

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Jon Vialoux on BNN Television

Following are links to yesterday’s Market Call:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip989115

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip989120

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip989122

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip989133

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip989139

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip989150

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip989151

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip989148

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated recently. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY) Seasonal Chart

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LLY Relative to the S&P 500
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LLY Relative to the Sector
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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC August 22nd 2013

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Sponsored By...



33 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday August 23rd 2013”

  1. tony Says:

    OK Balmer leaves Mr Softy in 12 months and the stock jumps 6% on the news

    Imagine what will happen once he is gone. Hope he has to sell his shares and miss out on the rally.

  2. tony Says:

    Jon V

    great informative show as always

  3. Freddebuoy Says:

    WLM, from yesterday, here is a chart of HNU.TO all doctored up to show my interpretation of it. Momentum is looking good but there are two major hurdles to overcome, as the chart will show. Seasonals begin very soon so it is certainly a watch.

    All that said, I’m not fond of leveraged inverse or long funds – I’m looking for a good non-leveraged Canadian ETF with half decent volume on Natty I may go U.S.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HNU.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p01407532005&a=313571226

  4. Freddebuoy Says:

    As a follow-up on my long-winded interpretation of the Manulife chart, here is one more, a comparison of the US 10 year bond yield with MFC.TO and SLF.TO. It clearly shows that the lifecos are a bet on interest rates. Any economist and other gurus I’ve read recently strongly believe interest rates are on the rise. I have to agree but economists can be wrong – can’t they?

    And, all that talk here yesterday here, about mortgages rates going up – well, yes! That’s what mortgages do when interest rates start to rise. The central banks/governments control the short term, the markets control the long term; the markets precede the central banks.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p88754607632&a=213198794

  5. Freddebuoy Says:

    Here’s another chart of TNX vs. MFC and SLF but a 10 year time span. I’m keeping the Lifecos on my watch.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55270509707&a=213198794

  6. Ranger Says:

    techtalk
    or
    don or jon vialoux,

    are you having any issues in receiving or posting any questions directed to you folks?
    i’m having trouble in posting questions to you here on this forum for past 14 hours.
    thx.

  7. tony Says:

    Ranger

    I know they monitor whats goes across the site. but there are questions they aren’t allowed to talk about because it can be in conflict of interest.

  8. Ranger Says:

    tony –
    if you read carefully, i wrote about difficulty in posting a question. besides, what’s wrong with a posting of a question?

    i know about conflict part but that deals with answering the question, right?
    and what i’ve asked is in a ‘no conflict’ zone for sure.
    it’s about a seasonal chart on the equityclock site.

    looks like vialoux family is enjoying the summer vacation and i wouldn’t blame them as weather seem to be really great after much cooler summer so far.
    np, i can wait.

    thx anyways.

  9. StagDeflation Says:

    So isnt there a lot of resistance around $13 for XGD? So if it closes above this we can expect to head higher?

  10. StagDeflation Says:

    For fans of G.TO: theres some insider selling at these prices:
    http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=G
    Nobody important, just the CFO … ;)

  11. StagDeflation Says:

    While over at Dundee REIT, the CEO is “eating his own dogfood”.
    http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=D

  12. Freddebuoy Says:

    Ranger, as far as I know, no questions on this site are answered as it would be in violation of their contracts. But I have found that sometimes questions are answered in the context of their blog material, if you read it carefully.

  13. Freddebuoy Says:

    StagDeflation, You are absolutely right, 13.04 is resistance and XGD.TO has been consolidating around that price for six sessions now. It looks about to begin its next leg up. As a minimum, you can expect the final price at 15 to 15.50.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p01407532005&a=310234601

  14. Freddebuoy Says:

    StagDeflation, re #10 and 11, it is gratifying to note that the selling of G.TO is very small. And is the buying at Dundee a signal that the bottom is in or at least near?

  15. FishFat Says:

    Freddebuoy
    Nice chart work on the XGD.to.
    One question:
    You have the ROC circled. I am not familiar with that indicator. Is it signaling overbought or just very bullish or what something else? Thanks in advance.

    FF

  16. DD Says:

    Precious metals rebound opportunities review:

    http://www.gettingtechnicalinfo.blogspot.ca/2013/07/precious-metals-rebound-opportunities_22.html

    I plotted them into charts, just add http: to the beginning of the address.

    Low risk recovery:
    //stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FVi.TO,tho.TO,agi.TO,kgi.TO,tnx.TO,nsu.TO,g.to,ptm.to|B|H14,3

    medium risk recovery:
    //stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?P.TO,PAA.TO,NMC.TO,SVM.TO,NGD.TO,TXG.TO,BTO.TO,PDL.TO,AUQ.TO,AEM.TO,K.TO,SAS.TO|B|H14,3

    high risk recovery:
    //stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?rgl.to,eld.to,gbu.to,sso.to,rmx.to,ng.to,gpr.to,ric.to,smf.to,abx.to,edr.to|B|H14,3

    question of survival recovery:
    //stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?osk.to,img.to,lsg.to,wdo.to,vgz.to,ogc.to,vgz.to,cg.to,dgc.to,tgz.to,gsc.to,edv.to|B|H14,3

  17. kam Says:

    Ranger,
    re-posts,

    It has happened to me before. it still happens once a month or so that it didn’t get posted at all. about 1 or so ago i remember i had some posts telling folks not to Hold HNU as it lose value consistently and those posts never made it to “Print”. happened 2-3 days in a row.
    So one thing i did was change my email address which I write in “mail”area to write a comment. First one might be delayed then computer will start recognizing your new email address to post your comments rightaway. It might work so try that.sometime writing a long essay won’t post your comment either. Or putting too many links might stop or delay it. It should be working soon. I will also try to delete cookies of the TTM site for it to start fresh “surveillance” :( on your IP address. later.

    did U trade Natty this report? looked like a boring day to trade. I am in gold stocks and xiv and tna etc. Bias in spx looked to upside atm towards 1675-1680 but have to use caution all the time.

  18. Ranger Says:

    freddebuoy & kam –
    muchas gracias for your time and efforts.
    nothing applies in this case, at all.

    will leave it up to the site admin. to clarify this; if & when they decide to.

    part of my post (without addressed names) is here – if this one (this post) decides to show up here…holding my breath.

    Need your help on these natural gas and crude oil seasonal charts from your equity clock dot com site, please.

    How do i get a proper sized (and NOT the thumb-nailed size) ‘continuous contract chart’ for natural gas futures and a crude oil (WTIC) futures?

    On that site when searching under the ‘charts’ and putting ‘natural’ as the search word, you get a ‘Natural Gas Futures (NG) Seasonal Chart’ (this link has 3 charts) and a ‘Natural Gas miNY Futures (QN) Seasonal Chart’ (this link has one chart).
    None of these are ‘continuous contract’ charts.
    okay, may be I’m not being clear enough.

    Let’s see this way.

    After doing the search for ‘natural’ under the ‘charts’ tab the very first link you get for ‘Natural Gas Futures (NG) Seasonal Chart’ has a mini chart or a picture before it which (inside the chart) reads ‘Natural Gas Futures Continuous Contract Seasonality’ – this one differs from all these 3 + 1 charts i.e. Natural Gas Futures Seasonality, FUTURE NG1 Relative to the S&P 500, FUTURE NG1 Relative to Gold and at last the Natural Gas miNY Futures (QN) Seasonal Chart.

    Same is the case when searched for ‘crude’ under ‘charts’ tab.
    Funny thing is some where else on the web I saw full sized ‘natural gas futures continuous contract seasonality’ chart from equityclock stamp on it but when tried looking for the same on your site couldn’t find it. Same is the scenario for the crude oil.

    Essentially, I am looking for a full size or big enough charts for Crude and NatGas that shows ‘Natgas/Crude oil Futures Continuous Contract Seasonality’.

    Hope I’m being clear enough as to what I’m asking for.

    Will greatly appreciate your reply here as well as those two additional charts on equityclock site. (have not checked the same for Gold or Silver yet, may be same thing exist there too?)

    now tell me what’s wrong with this post?
    there is no boundaries that they would be crossing by answering this, let alone allowing me to post this here…right?

  19. Ranger Says:

    soooooo…finally this partial post from my original one got posted here

    here is the missing part from the top
    “TechTalk
    or
    Don or Jon Vialoux – ”

    and at the bottom
    “Thanks a bunch”

    some crazy thing is going on on the site or some glitch.
    there is nothing offensive or wrong with this, right?

    anyhow, now hopefully they can answer??
    thx.

  20. Ron/BC Says:

    Ranger.

    Here is a site I use for futures as it gives open interest and volume which is nice to see the most active contract and backwardation or contango on them all. Click just above the major chart on the site in small print marked ENERGY. That will bring up just energy selections with all the data to the right. Click on any of them and you’ll get a chart with interactive tools for indicators of your choice. Just thought that might help as it is a good site for that. And the 2nd site I’m posting is very good as well.

    http://futuresdaily.com/quotes/futures/Default.aspx

    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

  21. Ranger Says:

    kam –
    apart from decency & language rules, i know one can’t make a mistake in the name or e-mail address field or else it WILL be held up for moderation (and i know sometime it takes up to few days). also, one can’t be firing too many posts too fast or else they will be held up. cookies, temp. files, histories, browser settings, privacy etc. was looked after.
    strangely, my third post that day was allowed after failed attempts to post the above mentioned one.
    techtalk will, hopefully, find out what happened & why.
    till then i will call this incident as some voodoo curse. lol.

    okay, as for notorious nasty gas i have only 2k units of dgaz and that were recently purchased at roughly 3.41 – 3.38 prices. no hnd, no options on ung. actually, not much done in past week or 2. even simply holding on to rather large amounts of hod, sco & uso-options- without trading.

    fatigue? exhaustion? laziness? lack of confidence?
    may be all combined.
    sometimes, a day or two goes by and I just take a casual glace at spx, vix, oil & natgas prices on live tv. that’s it. no computers, no looking at the charts or blogs.
    feels like i’m losing my religion?!

    keep up your energy on gold, vix & iwm derivatives.
    best as always!

  22. Ranger Says:

    ron/bc –
    thx for the sites and the help.
    i am familiar with those.

    the grand daddy of all commodities data is the datasuite from cme for small investors and traders who don’t have access to bloomberg or reuters terminals.
    datasuite is being closed as a free product soon. too sad. generally it is down for maintenance on saturdays. a very accurate, up to the second & reliable data on all contracts, spreads etc. you can get all commodities here milk to cheese, to industrial & precious metals, energy, agriculture – any one can think of. it’s a java product that updates by itself in real time. investing dot com often lags or gets frozen when 1030am report time on thursday and wednesday. this one, never.
    http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/dataSuite.html?template=fut&productCode=NG&exchange=XNYM&strategyType=SP&selected_tab=energy

    the other one -from cme again- is (remove the space after the double fwd.slashes)
    http:// http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas_quotes_globex.html
    this one will be still available for free but it’s a 10-15min. delayed data. but has ample amount of info. like time&sales,options,volume, contract specification,margins, settlements, product calendar. this second link is for HH NatGas.

    you can choose any other energy product including CAPP coal, uranium, gasoline, cl, brent, financial product, even crude volatility index from the drop down list just under where it says ‘energy products’ on the left top side of the page where a picture of pipes & valve shows up.

    a similar one is
    http:// http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/

    cheers!

  23. Ranger Says:

    an observation:
    no need to bother with these
    “(remove the space after the double fwd.slashes)”

    looks like one can post with more than one link without being moderated.
    an improvement, i must say.

    thanks techtalk.

  24. Kam Says:

    Ranger,
    Look like they let u post. I think this blog is run by someone in the basement. There is no ads, force feed or spam , editing allowed etc so it’s like Internet in Stone Age . After all these flaws it’s the best place to still post for us without being spammed . So we have take good with bad .

    Anyways NTR
    If any punjabi folks in Vancity area are at Gudas Maan show in Abby , you are welcome and a offer of Hieneken is still valid on me here. Just post here before show is over. Let me know where can I find u afterwards. We are in upper suites and luge area .

  25. Ron/BC Says:

    I can’t post the text of what John Murphy sends out from Stockcharts.com but here is the headline above his report. Never truer words spoken. The U.S.$ directional move determines most prices on a regular basis. And right now it is right at critical price support. A rally back up again will trash inverse markets and a breakdown will see inverse markets soar,regardless of the fundamentals of the underlying market. That is something everyone should right on the wall in felt pen…….Definitely time to pay close attention to the U.S.$.

    – DOLLAR IS TESTING IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL
    — WHAT IT DOES FROM HERE WILL IMPACT THE DIRECTION OF COMMODITIES
    — EMERGING MARKETS STOCKS AND CURRENCIES ARE TESTING SUPPORT LEVELS AS WELL

  26. Freddebuoy Says:

    FishFat, ROC is another momentum indicator and just like the others, you can set the time frame to whatever makes sense for you. Ron’BC likes RSI 8, Pring, in his book Technical Analysis Explained likes RSI 9 with the oversold/overbought lines set at 20/80 for many.

    On XGD, if you use the default setting of 12, the ETF is vastly overbought (set the horizontal lines at -10,10) but this is not a bad thing. But if you change the time setting to 9, you will find momentum falling off but that is not a bad thing either because it is common to have momentum drive very strongly at first then even off. As Pring describes it, think of it as trying to break down a locked door. It takes a tremendous amount of energy to get through but much less once the door is open.

    I like ROC and I like RSI. Both are very useful for delineating oversold/overbought conditions and divergences.

    StockCharts ChartSchool has a good description of ROC. And of other indicators as well.

  27. Ron/BC Says:

    Freddebuoy

    I was flipping through Prings book Technical Analysis Explained 1980 version and realized just how out of date it was. The data shown was up til the end of 1977. While that isn’t a big deal when explaining technical patterns and good old fashioned technicals etc, it isn’t usable info on a lot of stuff today. (I don’t need over 100 pages of printed stats on the Dow’s close,lol.) Back then no one had a computer to trade with so his work wasn’t well read by the average trader/investor. So I guess you have the ‘up to date’ version of his book. Perhaps I should get me a copy. Always love to go over that stuff that is truly relevant to technicals. Especially from someone who knows what he’s talking about like Pring. Did you say Pring has a blog to read online????

  28. Freddebuoy Says:

    Hi Ron, my version is 2002. There are lots of old charts but, as you say, the basics don’t change that much. The next update is due in February of 2014 but I didn’t want to wait that long even though I fully realize some of the newest ideas will show up in the new edition.

    But I must say, the investment of about 70 bucks is the best investment I’ve made this year. Not only has my knowledge base grown exponentially, my confidence level is far, far and away better than it was. And I owe it to Keith Richards’ book, Sideways for getting me going.

    My favourite set-up, I think, is to look for RSI and/or ROC to go oversold, the more the better, then draw trend lines on the price chart for the actual entry.

    My apologies for quoting and referring to Pring but he has been a tremendous influence.

  29. Freddebuoy Says:

    Here is Martin Prings website address:

    http://www.pring.com/pring_bio.htm

  30. WLM Says:

    # 3 Freddebuoy

    Thank you, I put your HNU.TO chart [also Ron/BC charts], with excellent explanations to my favorites.

  31. Ron/BC Says:

    Freddebuoy

    Yes the Sideways book was good. Especially for a book of about 100 pages of good solid technical stuff without the fluff. I think I will wait for Pring’s latest book that comes out in January to see what his priorities are now. Thanks for the link to his site. And be sure to be on your toes to see what the U.S.$ does from this point onward. It will make or break a lot of trades soon.

  32. mick/nv Says:

    Ron/BC – Freddebuoy

    You’re ignoring his best book, Investment Psychology Explained, give it a read sometime.

  33. Ron/BC Says:

    mick/nv

    Are you referring to the 1995 edition or the 1999 book? I don’t know what the difference between them is. (I don’t have either.)

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