Tech Talk for Thursday February 6th 2014

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday February 6th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 2 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved lower following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 335,000 versus a revised 351,000 last week. Actual was 331,000.

Consensus for December U.S. Trade Deficit was $36.0 billion versus $34.3 billion in November. Actual was $38.7 billion. Consensus for Fourth Quarter Productivity was growth at a 2.4% rate versus a revised third quarter rate at 3.6%. Actual was growth at 3.2%.

The Canadian Dollar slipped lower following release of Canada’s December Merchandise Trade report. Consensus was a deficit of $900 million versus a revised deficit of $650 million in November. Actual was a deficit of $1.61 billion.

The Bank of England maintained its overnight lending rate at 0.5%. The European Central Bank maintained its overnight lending rate at 0.25%.

Companies that reported quarterly results before the opening included General Motors, Twitter and AOL,

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters jumped $32.09 to $112.97 after announcing that Coca Cola had acquired a 10% interest in the company.

Twitter plunged $15.00 to $50.97 after announcing lower than consensus quarterly earnings and revenues. The stock also was downgraded by four investment dealers.

Ford lost $0.13 to $14.60 after Argus downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.

American Express added $0.28 to $84.00 after Janney Capital upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.

Mosaic added $0.39 to $45.25 after HSBC upgraded the stock from Underweight to Neutral

Dupont gained $0.25 to $52.15 after Sun Trust upgraded the stock from Reduce to Neutral.

Dow Chemical improved $0.15 to $45.00 after BGC Financial initiated coverage with a Buy rating.

 

EquityClock.com’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2014/02/05/stock-market-outlook-for-february-6-2014/

 

Mr. Vialoux on “Money Talks” last night

Topic is “Timing the Market” versus “Time in the Market”. Following is a link to the show:

http://www.tdwealthvideos.com/index.php?portal=22&video=199

 

FP Trading Desk Headline

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “How to play the impending zinc supply cut” Following is a link:

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/05/how-to-play-the-impending-zinc-supply-cuts/

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

S&P/TSX Capped Diversified Metals Seasonal Chart

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^GSPTTMN Relative to the S&P 500
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Free Webinar with Mark Leibovit

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"High Power Trading With the VR Indicator"
presented by Mark Leibovit
Tuesday, February 11th @ 7:00 PM ET

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With nearly 40 years of trading experience, including being a ‘Market Maker’ on the Chicago Board Options Exchange, Mark Leibovit has had the opportunity to meet some of the top traders and market strategists in the world and to study numerous technical indicators and trading systems. His 2011 book, The Traders Book of Volume, examines many of these in detail. The culmination of Mark’s work is his proprietary Leibovit VR Indicator which is based on the simple but powerful concept that ‘volume precedes price’.

In his upcoming 60 minute webinar, Mark will present numerous recent examples of successful trades utilizing the VR Indicator while analyzing his thought process for making those trades. As time permits, he will open the Webinar to participant questions on specific stocks and analyze them live.

The goal of the webinar is to familiarize you with the Leibovit VR Indicator and to seriously encourage traders to add this powerful indicator to their arsenal of trading tools.

About Mark Leibovit
Mark Leibovit is the developer of the Leibovit Volume Reversal (aka the Volume Reversal) and the publisher and chief market strategist for the Volume Reversal Newsletters, VRTrader.com, and VR Goldletter.com. His technical expertise is in stock and futures selection, short and mid-term trading, and broad market timing based upon his proprietary Volume Reversal ™ methodology and Annual Forecast Model. You may have recognized Mark Leibovit as one of the ten "elves" on Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week (PBS television) where he served as a weekly consultant for seven years or from the Nightly Business Report (PBS television) where he appears as a regular market monitor guest. You can hear his proprietary Volume Reversal market commentary on numerous radio, television, and financial formats around the US and Canada (most notably CNBC, BNN, Bloomberg, Barrons, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The HuffingtonPost.com, Marketwatch.com, and Moneytalks.net).

Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management (Canada) Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management (Canada) Inc.

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC February 5th 2014

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27 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday February 6th 2014”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    The tradable $SPX ETF:SPY is bumping up against resistance on this very tight pattern of less than 3 points between 173.71 price and trendline support and 176.50 price resistance which was the breakdown point. No cigar yet for the bulls until price can clear and hold above resistance and the short downtrendline. And a break below this support would be meaningful and project a lot of ugly ahead. Meanwhile tomorrow is the employment report and always a good day once a month for the big boys to run stops both above and below prices. Enjoy the ride ……

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72297465289&a=243057852

  2. Ron/AB Says:

    NRG,

    I bought a little ESN.to the past two days for both the O&G services season and the technical profile. Might want to take a look. I heard on the news that ESI is being accused of backdating employee/management options. It doesn’t seem like anything fundamental to operations but could be a short term perception problem among shareholders.

  3. CanJan77 Says:

    Anyone ride GMCR up this morning? – 25% gain in one day – not too shabby. I am staying clear of the oil & gas and letting cafeine provide energy :)

  4. Ron/AB Says:

    CJ,

    Enjoy the ride! Short’s are covering when they heard cola bought stake in GMCR.

  5. Ranger Says:

    two pictures

    expansion of the fed balance sh!t [ ;) ] vs. the spx
    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/431452138707763200/photo/1/large

    and

    the volatility
    http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_19782241.png?1391700092

  6. StagDeflation Says:

    Thanks Ron/bc for the analysis.

    Cola make 500M dollars overnight on an investment – crazy!

  7. kam Says:

    CJ
    GMCR,
    It was up 60% yesterday after hours and if someone holding calls on it had used the formula I wrote yesterday would be up 60% Not just 25%. hopefully someone had. You just have to clean the table when its up 60% and real traders are enjoying fine wine,lol. Coke’s 1.2B investment shouldn’t increase market cap by 7B,is it? Sodastream fell AH to $31+ in sympathy due to KO investment in GMCR. Its trading up to $40 today. Real traders can put things in line if it out of touch AH.

    This is what I wrote last evening. Don’t see many posts after it.Don’t know how many read it but It worked.selling short at $129 and now covering at $105 is $24 you made what you missed in calls not flying that high.Try in future if missed this time.

    “kam Says:
    February 5th, 2014 at 6:19 pm
    Re- GMCR,
    Anyone bought calls on this today. KO took 10% stake in the co and is flying after hours. Way too many shorts in it. From $80 to $130 In AH.I don’t know if it can handle that tomorrow.I think KO took a stake at $75 each.OMAHA. OMAHA(instead of Mr buffet I see another face,lol)
    So maybe if you want to protect your calls at $129 price which is 60%up then Shorting the stock here is not a bad idea IMO. Short for same # of shares as contracts on call. You can;t lose.If stock dropped tomorrow your calls will be worth less but then you cover stock for profit. If it goes even higher then cover short for a loss but calls will be worth more. I don’t have any lotto # like facebook once.”

  8. Ranger Says:

    ——————————————————————————————
    kam Says:
    February 5th, 2014 at 8:08 pm

    Re
    HNU/HND and DGAZ/UGAZ holders,
    I wrote about the roll coming if you guys remember few days ago. Today I just checked the difference in front and April contract. It show about 57 cents now. So all other things being equal if the spread stays like this until the roll ends next tuesday(18feb) HND holders Pockets could be 20% lighter than normal and DGAZ be 30%. Now chances are they will compress the spread somewhat which will decrease the bad taste in mouth but don’t know how much. And if market moves higher and/or spread increase then it will be even worse.As for HND they do it over 8 days 12.5% each day sell march and buy April so exact calculations are hard to get to as spread might be more or less everyday.
    SO hnu/ung/ugaz will be beneficiaries of this all.

    Ok hopefully you guys keeps that in mind while playing natgas next few days.
    ——————————————————————————————–

    kam –
    good to see your post.
    hope that the above mentioned reasons (bearish for Ds) are more than offset by the firming warmer weather outlook and the DJUSB roll starting tomorrow and then the record length per COT can be flushed out. this for next week or two.
    however one never knows, how the upcoming H expiry will be seen by the market participants.
    memories of G expiry or it will be seen as an anomaly this expiry time?
    many questions and more muddy answers.
    may be i’m sounding more hopeful than what i was at ng below 4.50? lol.
    time for the prayer.
    cheers to all.

  9. CanJan77 Says:

    Looking at SBUX next…..anyone buying them out??? LOL

  10. CanJan77 Says:

    Kam #7 Don’t do options and don’t short I did’nt read your note or know about the buy out by KO. I have been monitoring the coffee trade for some time with success in JO; TA told me GMCR was popping and I guess I just lucked out :)

  11. kam Says:

    Ranger,
    u got mail too.

    Talking of prayer room.
    Someone asked GOD- Why don’t you listen to my prayers at the time I do it?
    God answered-I also don’t give you punishment at the same time you do sins either.

    So keep praying.Don’t expect results yet. At the moment GOD is showing results for the prayers of Natty companies who were praying 2 years ago when it hit $1.90.

  12. kam Says:

    CJ,
    So you were holding GMCR? good for you.you still holding it or gone? If feel like maybe sell half and hold other just in case it runup to its all time high towards 115 or so.
    I understand about not doing options. But did you have after hours excess to buy/sell then it is a good choice to have if one want to buy and sell. Believe me I almost bought SODA at $31.95 AH because it sounded like less risky but Then just double clutched and walked away from buy order. Its trading at $40 now!!

    With IB now I have after hours and pre open access to market and love it.

  13. tony Says:

    CanJan

    I agree with post 12 from Kam you should sell some not all of it but some.

    look at icpt it jumped for a full two days and then came back to normalize itself at 301$

  14. tony Says:

    Kam

    Soda

    I think the market is expecting $PEP to buy them out since $KO bought some $gmcr
    but I don’t think it will happen since there’s talk about people concerned for more healthy food and beverage.

  15. tony Says:

    Kam, CanJan

    if ko bought 10% stake of gmcr this means they bought it from whom the retail investors or were there new issues just for them if this is the case we could see price of the shares drop as there’s been dillution of the company.

  16. Tawny Says:

    CJ

    Congrats on your good fortune – it does feel good, eh!
    I have to be content with XI up 8% – but as I bought a little early, I am up 5% as I write.

    5i Watchers – did you see Peter on BNN – one of his top picks CF.to up 17% today.
    When I saw it pop around 7% I said too late to buy. Dah!

  17. CanJan77 Says:

    Sorry Tony – I thought about it, but sold the whole thing. It had already hit a high and was on the way down when I got on, so took the whole thing (I only had 35 shares) Still the most money I have made in a day :)

    Now I have a little cash for the next opportunity. What’s your take on SBUX – is it time?

    Yes Tawny it feels good LOL!

  18. tony Says:

    CJ

    thats’ a good move from you, thats why 15 I asked where did these shares come from if its new then it should be short lived. if Coke acquired the whole company then it would not effect on the greem mountain, but since its only 10% I think a new issue is due otherwise you they would have alted the transactions the time they bought out all those selling without affecting the price until it was resolved.

  19. CanJan77 Says:

    Tawny:
    Have not been following BNN lately, my time for reading or watching is minimal at present. Thanks for sharing those picks – CF.TO is still a possibility!
    A little piece of the pie is ok, don’t often get it all!!

    Tony: Answered my own question – MACD tells me SBUX not safe yet!

  20. Tawny Says:

    CJ

    PEter’s top picks were G (goldcorp) CF (cannacord) and CGX (movies – Tony has talked about this one)
    I would hold on to your money until after the jobs reports tomorrow a.m.

  21. tony Says:

    CanJan

    SBUX
    True MACD says its not a buy I think SBux gets to the 50MA at best and then moves south again (bull trap)

    – I was going to say that SBUX is opposite to JO but after looking at the chart all the ups and down we see from SBUX doens’t affect JO but trend wise JO moved lower as SBUX moved higher.

    Using my trading technique SBUX is a buy tomorrow.

  22. tony Says:

    Tawny

    CGX yes I’m a believer movies will never go out of style (cgx, nflx and whom ever plays in this space)

    Technically CGX should pullback to around 37$ before movie season is upon us and lets not forget cgx moved higher in the last 2 days while it took longer to get at tuesdays low so expect a pull back as this is bear territory pulling the bullish bulls in for a swift clean up.

  23. Tawny Says:

    tony
    Thanks for your info on CGX… Peter’s picks of course do not mean they go up immediately – he wants to look good next time he is on the show. I am not buying any of the three right now – personally feel it is late in the game for CF.to. now.
    Took my profits on XIV – may swing trade it again. hope all goes well with job reports tomorrow

  24. kam Says:

    Tony,
    21
    I think its other way around. Sbux moves lower as JO moves up.Jo has nothing to do with Starbucks, more to do with weather forecast in Bikiniland aka Brazil. Yes Sbux have everything to do with JO as their cost of coffee they buy is cheaper but still sells to us for $5 hence higher margins.
    Sbux might be up with market but JO dropped a lot which should have helped some.

  25. tony Says:

    Kam

    forgot to write the second part of my idea down,

    yes SBUX can’t move prices higher at 5$ for a latte I would prefer to go at an italian bar and get my cappucino for 1/2 the price

  26. CanJan77 Says:

    Coffee futures are in the red, that is why JO and GMCR are curling down, and Kam’s explanation of cheaper coffee being profitable for SBUX was my thought exactly!

    What time of day are those employment reports due?

  27. WLM Says:

    Interesting point of view and … quiz.

    Chart is from yesterday but today’s update plus today’s CCI, RSI [8], confirms the finding of the author ???

    “Pop quiz: here’s the facts, you guess the outcome”
    http://www.smartbounce.ca/?p=2739

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