Tech Talk for Thursday January 12th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday January 12th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 6 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the Weekly Jobless Claims report. Consensus was an increase to 245,000 from an upwardly revised 237,000. Actual was 247,000.

Crude oil, natural gas, silver, gold and copper futures moved higher on weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index

Delta Airlines slipped $0.14 to $51.30 after reporting lower fourth quarter earnings.

IBM gained $0.35 to $168.10 after Stifel Nicolaus raised its target price to $192 from $165.

Boeing eased $0.74 to $158.66 after RBC Capital initiated coverage on the stock with an Under Perform rating

KB Homes was unchanged at $16.60 after reporting slightly higher than consensus quarterly earnings and revenues

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/01/11/stock-market-outlook-for-january-12-2017/

Note seasonality charts on the Biotech Industry, Crude Oil Days of Supply and Gasoline Days of Supply.

Observations

Base metal stocks led the advance by the TSX yesterday. ‘Tis the season!

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Nice breakout by VALE above $9.35 extending long term reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

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‘Tis the season for strength in VALE to the end of April!

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @equityclock

Positive momentum divergence on the VIX could be providing a warning signal.

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Mixed. Breakouts: $DGX $AKAM $ALB. Breakdowns: $CB $WFC $JNPR

After 10:00 AM EST, breakouts included HIG, HSY, SJM and CERN. Breakdowns included PRGO and ENDP.

Wells Fargo $WFC, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $54.03 completing a double top pattern.

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TransAlta $TA.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $7.66 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Gildan Activewear $GIL.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $32.99 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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ARC Resources $ARX.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $21.46 completing a double top pattern.

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Bank of Nova Scotia $BNS.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $77.38 to an all-time high extending uptrend.

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Power Corp. $POW.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $30.81 to a 19 month high extending uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 11th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 11th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 11th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Adrienne Toghraie’s ‘Trader’s Coach” Column

Becoming the Forerunner for Taking Opportunity

Do you see this time in history as a time for opportunity in the markets or are you coming from a position of fear?

Many of us know someone in our family who went through the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Very often these survivors would pass down their need for frugality to their children. This would define their lives as well, even after many were set for life financially. There were, however, those few who saw this period as a time of great opportunity and passed that kind of thinking down the family tree.

Scared Joe

A trader by the name of Joe called me the other day. He said that he made a fortune in simulation, but as soon as he traded real money, he was not able to be consistent. Joe obviously was calling me because he thought he needed to work on the psychological aspect of his trading, but when I suggested that he start by taking my Trader’s Evaluation to pinpoint the issues, he gave me ten reasons that he should be able to do it on his own.

On further questioning, I found out that Joe did not want to spend any more money on becoming a trader. He told me that he already invested five thousand dollars and lost ten thousand. Joe had over several hundred thousand to trade. He already proved that he had a viable strategy, but he was not willing to take the next step.

What do you think should be Joe’s next step?

While it is easy making choices for others with their money, how do you fair with your own in making choices?

Of late, families are making the choice of saving and giving up discretionary spending. This is a good idea. What is not a good idea is to dampen the prospects of opportunity by not investing in yourself.

There is only a small percentage of people who can make a living from trading. If you are one of those people who know that this is possible because you have proven your strategy to work, the only thing between you and success is the “you” factor.

“You” factor

People are brilliant and creative money making machines or they are not. Fear keeps a person from thinking clearly to make competent decisions and take calculated risk. The fear factor will keep the competent “you” factor from attaining your full potential.

Fear driving bad bank decision

Years ago there was a bank in Europe that hired me to work with their traders. The traders were already a winning team because of the manager. He wanted to make sure that the team stayed on top of their game and that is why he hired me. While the trading team was making money, the bank was losing money. There had to be cuts in personnel and spending.

The heads of the bank, who were elected officials with little managerial experience, decided to cut all departments by ten percent. This meant cutting the manager of the trading department and cutting the personnel that supported the traders. The bank fell deeper into debt the next year, because the balance of the trading team was destroyed.

Making the right choices

After you make the choices for what you will save and how you will cut expenses, the next step is to plan for how to create opportunity. Here are a few strategies for making a decision:

1. Put yourself in the mindset of someone you know who is very successful. From this person’s point of view, what choice would he or she make?

2. Write down all the pros and cons for making the decision and discuss it with your family. Notice if they are making choices that are from logic or fear. Then consider checking out the family choices with a financial advisor.

Conclusion

Making sound money decisions is the only way to financial freedom. If the only thing that is keeping you from becoming a successful trader is your ability to follow your rules, then it make sense that you handle those issues as soon as possible.

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer gained 2.20 to 76.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and continues to show early signs of rolling over.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 1.27 to 75.11 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and shows early signs of peaking.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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73 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday January 12th 2017”

  1. Wayne Says:

    I have been following the discussion concerning Uranium.
    Did anybody watch the PBS episode last night – “The Nuclear Option”?

    Interesting article on SA this morning concerning the sudden moves in U stocks. The discussion that follows is very informative.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4036076-uranium-pops-rally-real-time?lift_email_rec=true

  2. Ana Says:

    #1. Wayne,

    There you are! Are you somewhere warm or still in Canada?

  3. Ana Says:

    $SPX Looking for 2241 – 2243 for the target of the H&S pattern.

  4. Wayne Says:

    Ana,
    I was in New York City for a couple of weeks. Celebrated the New Year near Times Square with a gazzillion others! Just returned to Can in time for the January thaw. How goes the day trading?
    I am still long Gold from Dec 23…….

  5. roy Says:

    Hello Mick/NV – CNQ.TO – is it at your buy price yet?

  6. DH Says:

    Wayne,

    Thanks for the link. Hope the uranium rally is not yet another pop and fizzle. I’ve stayed out so far because I’ve seen it happen too many times. Don’t want to jump aboard and then get “nuked” out of my positions. lol.

    I just received a TD report on uranium from a friend which looks quite positive. Might be worth waiting for prices to consolidate a bit before taking any positions since they went parabolic right out of the starting gates.

    TD Securities
    Industry Note
    Equity Research January 12, 2017

    Metals & Minerals
    Uranium Supply Discipline Setting the Stage for Higher Prices
    Increasing our uranium price deck for 2017-2020

    ■ Kazatomprom announces 10% production curtailment — On January 9,
    Kazatomprom announced that it will lower production by ~10% or 5.2mmlb in
    2017 (~3% of global supply) and, along with its JV partners, will continue to
    apply production discretion in light of market developments. The Chairman of
    Kazatomprom further noted that to continue “putting more and more uranium into
    an oversupplied market does not serve our various stakeholders’ interests”. On
    the back of Cameco’s capacity curtailments in 2016 (~7mmlb annual production),
    Kazatomprom’s announcement finally indicates that the two largest producers are
    serious about correcting what has been an oversupplied market and likely marks
    a bottom in the spot price. In our view, the curtailments do not re-balance the
    market; based on our estimates and Ux Consulting (UxC)’s forecasts, we believe
    that the uranium market will remain oversupplied by ~20 mmlb in 2017.
    ■ Curtailments could trigger utilities to return to the term market — We believe
    that the production curtailments at Kazatomprom may trigger more long-term
    contracting activity by utilities as they seek to fill uncovered demand beyond 2020.
    We caution that a substantial recovery in uranium prices could take time as utilities
    are well-supplied and the total supply will continue to outstrip demand for the next
    several years.
    ■ Term market expected to pick up heading into 2017 — Recent term demand
    is light to moderate, according to UxC. We note that several U.S. and nonU.S.
    utilities are evaluating offers for term delivery for the period between 2020
    and 2030. The pick-up in utility term demand beyond 2020 is encouraging and
    suggests that utilities are starting to consider covering LT requirements into a timeframe
    when mine supply will start getting tighter.
    ■ We have raised our uranium price assumptions for 2017 through 2020 by
    $3/lb to $27/lb, $29/lb, $31/lb, and $33/lb, respectively. Our revised price deck
    reflects our view that the Kazatomprom curtailments will positively affect sector
    sentiment and possibly lead to renewed term contracting interest from utilities. We
    continue to believe that the incentive price for uranium projects is in the range of
    $55/lb, but recognize that the need for new mine production is beyond 2020 —
    our LT price of $55/lb (unchanged) starts in 2023.
    ■ We have upgraded Cameco to BUY (from Hold) based on our higher uranium
    price forecasts and improved outlook for the sector. We have also updated
    our estimates for UPC and are maintaining our HOLD rating. Please see
    our separately published Action Notes for more details. We are leaving
    our estimates for Denison and NexGen unchanged as the project development
    time frames fall outside of our price forecast changes. For Paladin, we are
    maintaining our estimates due to uncertainties surrounding the ongoing balance
    sheet restructuring.

  7. Wayne Says:

    DH,
    Thanks for the info. One of the surprising developments that was featured in the program was a start up company sponsored by Bill Gates. The Fukushima plant was designed on out dated technology – thus the failure. The program is well worth watching.

    The decisive factor in returning to nuclear is the realization that fossil fuels will continue to accelerate climate change. China has constructed a reactor using technology developed by the Gates co.

  8. DH Says:

    I hope the markets stop reacting to everything Trump says. His parents obviously never told him to think before he speaks. He seems to crave attention, even negative attention.

  9. DH Says:

    Wayne, that does sound interesting. My cousin works for the Gates Foundation. A very impressive, forward-thinking, group of people.

  10. DH Says:

    Too bad Gates’ nuclear energy tech company TerraPower is not publicly traded. Guess it doesn’t need to raise any capital!

  11. DH Says:

    I think we’re going to see a lot of Trump dumps and Trump dumps in the markets for the next while.

  12. DH Says:

    correction: Trump jumps and Trump dumps

  13. Wayne Says:

    DH,
    NTR
    HA!!
    Friends in New York call him Donald Duck. This Duck has no quack!
    They know him as a con man from all of the games he’s played over the years. The first president who has gone bankrupt SIX times.
    Abe Lincoln declared bankruptcy once. The Duck is no Abe Lincoln.

  14. DH Says:

    No Abe for sure. I just picked up some EFR shares. Nice pullback today. We’ll see…

  15. DH Says:

    Here is the PBS documentary “The Nuclear Option” for anyone following this meandering thread:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBAZc-nQISw

  16. Mick/NV Says:

    Roy

    #5

    I put in a bid a bit late at $39.99 which currently is the low, so if it drops back down to that level should be able to pick it up. Can never get the perfect price but I think a price below the s2 pivot point support would be a good entry point.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p00851195733&a=485258366

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    CCJ broke out over $10.50 and ran up to $13.20 resistance, and after poking its nose above has backed off and is trading near the lows of the day and is already overbought. Lots of price resistance at $13 and $14. Price may go to the moon but on the short term is more likely to pullback to the breakout point around $11.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CCJ&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81940347475&a=493936232

  18. DH Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Definitely worth waiting on CCJ. Some of the smaller players like FCR and FCU are having nice pull backs today.

    My gold trades are working out well.

  19. Larry/ON Says:

    Ron Meisel’s Technical Outlook For Market Correction. Looks like the party is over temporarily in the US market. I am keeping some powder dry, not panicking and picking my entry points slightly above what is forecast.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/research-reports/article33564212.ece/BINARY/MKT-406.pdf

  20. DH Says:

    sorry, that’s EFR and FCU

  21. Ana Says:

    #4.

    New York City for New Year Celebration, must have been amazing! I have only been in New York once and enjoyed the Broadway Plays! It is a big city for a girl from Saskatchewan!

    Good job on the Gold. I do not have a position anymore. I got out of my short yesterday, not at the high. Just going to wait and watch Gold for a few days.

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    DH
    Well anything can and does happen. But quantifying risk is always key to preservation of capital. That’s where the charts give a heads up with risk. As far as Gold trades go since switching to U.S.$ in December I was able to buy GDXJ just before Christmas and exited with a $5 gain. It did rally over $10 but I was happy to take a nice piece of it. But when I was in CD$ I was trading XGD.to several times last year. Notice the rally from Christmas to the recent high was only about $2.50 and the GDXJ over $10. The charts look much the same but the profit potential is 4 times with GDXJ! But my concern now is the price of $GOLD. The major support breakdown was $1200 and here we are today with price poking its nose above this level. Odds of it simply blowing through that resistance is slim. So “IF” price breaks out and holds I’ll treat $1200 as support again. Until then it is important price resistance and if it pulls back so will the Gold stocks despite some nice looking charts. (this chart wont update until end of day)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85708332507&a=482481318

  23. roy Says:

    Hello Mick/NV – Thanks – does seem over sold

  24. DH Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Thanks fo the info. I have noticed Gold juniors are outperforming. I have a few names like Belo Sun, Premier, Semafo, Seabridge, Nighthawk, Richmont and watch them carefully. Will sell at any sign of technical weakness to lock in profits. As you have noted, it is important to monitor price of gold and USD/CDN like a hawk. Current strength of Canadian dollar is certainly helping.

  25. DH Says:

    I am certainly no gold bug but bought on what seemed to be an overreaction to the downside. Happy to sell in a reverse scenario. In the meantime, I’ll let the charts tell the tale. Strangely enough, Trump’s ill-considered tweets and bleats are helping the Canadian markets.

  26. LonyJ Says:

    Yesterday gold went up approx 1% and $CDN went down approx 0.4%.
    HGU.TO the bull plus etf went down approx 0.5%.
    Could someonf explain how this can be correct?

  27. Ana Says:

    $SPX Anyone day trading?

  28. Ron/BC Says:

    The “tradable” Canadian dollar on the NYSE being the ETF:FXC is bumping up against its downtrendline and December high resistance and is overbought. This needs to be cleared and held to become support rather than resistance. Not a lot of volume on this CD ETF. No one seems to be that interested in the CD$ ETF.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46782001843&a=493997423

  29. steve Says:

    RON/BC
    Re- Refined Renko settings for short term trading.
    I have not come up with any new indicators. However, I have come up with a simple system that I used for my last 5 trades .
    I use the following:
    1- RSI 8 with emphasis on the 70 and 30 % lines
    2- MacD Histogram 5,8,3
    3- .001 box size to always give “AT LIMIT” settings
    4-Range Fill the chart
    5-The daily and weekly Histograms must be on the 0.000 line together and you wait for the weekly Histogram to go positive to establish your trade.
    While you wait for the change in direction you can look at the weekly boxes to see at what price a new box will be established.

    Take a look at your GDXJ trade the weekly and daily Histogram went positive on Dec. 27, 2016, and the weekly is still positive , getting ready for a change in direction.
    I am not a subscriber to stock charts, if you have the time can you do a chart on GDXJ.

  30. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the Gold stock ETF:GDX. Nice breakout over the falling channel and has been holding in a tight range above this breakout. That is very bullish. BUTTTTTTTTTTTT $GOLD is also bumping up against $1200 breakdown point resistance. So either this ETF breakout is going to fail with a pullback from resistance on $GOLD “OR” $GOLD is going to breakout over $1200 and both will rally higher. Also see the GDX:GLD ratio chart breakout on the upside. Mixed emotions………….So in the interest of preservation of capital I’ll wait for proof of the pudding before I eat either again. Would be nice to see the overbought RSI above drop back to that 30 line again as it does have a good track record of signalling price lows.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91427246998&a=473653999

  31. Sherri Says:

    #27 Ana

    Nope – hope you’re making your quota for the week, though.

  32. Ron/BC Says:

    Steve
    Thanks for the info. I’ll post a chart later as I am leaving soon. Let me know after I post if I have left something out or screwed up the settings.

  33. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC:

    I had CCJ ‘s counterpart CCO.TO which too went up very quickly and was overbought. I sold it this morning and want to re-enter would around $15.20 be a good price to get in as it seems to have lot of support here.
    Thanks!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CCO.TO&p=D&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p60369321612&a=499132559

  34. Ana Says:

    #31. Sherri,

    Well, miscalculated the I H&S on the 5 minute, so entered back into hvu.to too soon at 2266. So watching $SPX closely.

  35. LonyJ Says:

    This might be of interest.
    This map shows how much it costs to transport oil across the US.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-shipping-cost-in-the-us-map-2017-1?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_content=COTD&utm_campaign=Post%20Blast%20%28moneygame%29:%20This%20map%20shows%20how%20much%20it%20costs%20to%20transport%20oil%20across%20the%20US&utm_term=Markets%20Chart%20Of%20The%20Day%20-%20Engaged%2C%20Active%2C%20Passive%2C%20Disengaged

    That is a strange ling but it works.

  36. Ana Says:

    #35. LonyJ

    Yes, rail has been the major transport of oil in the north east, north central and north west!

    Now, whose owns that railway? That is the answer why no pipelines have been approved from the north.

  37. Rol Lew Says:

    #26 LonyJ HGU.to

    I am trying to understand this also & I am building with it.
    http ://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HGU.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83041732253&a=473653999

    Maybe it fell on Wed due to the USD/CAD relationship, because GDX finished flat yesterday @ 22.58
    while HGU.to finished down a wee bit @ 16.23

    Looks like a minority of the junior gold producers & little explorers have just got started
    http ://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MUX.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p66498003290
    http ://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CGT.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57805734569
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IMG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p24332189386
    http ://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KSK.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p54305348944 (building this)

    but to me, looks like GDX & HGU.to are not quite ready yet, to make a move like last Feb,
    http: //stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p19968124438
    http: //stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HGU.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p37620699551

    So with HGU.to I am just building a position (6 buys), hoping that it will eventually poke through the cloud also like the juniors. HGU regained all of yesterday’s fall (went to 15.45 lo on Wed to 17.07 hi Thur)
    If you look at at last Nov-Dec-Jan, there were a few false starts & some constipation before HGU-to finally got moving at the end of Jan.

  38. Rol Lew Says:

    Seeking Alpha .. Taylor Dart on Gold Sentiment

    “” What seems to be occurring is that the gold market is changing. We have moved from a market where strength was suppressed, to a market where weakness is accumulated. These are often signs of a market transforming from a bear to a bull, and it’s worth monitoring if this continues going forward.””

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4036197-gold-tail-two-types-markets

  39. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    CCO.to ‘should’ find support at the breakout point of $14.40 but could also find support at May and June highs of $15.50 with this big breakout. If you bought at $15.50 the only risk technically would be a further one dollar drop to $14.50

  40. Bernie Says:

    A deep dive yields generous income-producing stocks coupled with some downside protection. A deep dive yields generous income-producing stocks coupled with some downside protection.
    20 U.S. dividend stocks worth exploring:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-dividend-stocks-with-yields-up-to-75-and-these-companies-are-set-for-sales-and-earnings-gains-2017-01-11

  41. Ron/BC Says:

    Steve

    Here is the Renko chart with your parameters. Daily and Weekly. If something is missing let me know. And if there is more info on trading it let me know. I didn’t put an ema on the RSI 8 or the MACD Histogram but I do find it is useful in eliminating a lot of false signals.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p12949925841&a=499158226

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p26050367825&a=499159269

  42. LonyJ Says:

    Ron/BC
    Could we have your thoughts on this gold issue.

    Yesterday gold went up approx 1% and $CDN went down approx 0.4%.
    HGU.TO the bull plus etf went down approx 0.5%.
    Could someone explain how this can be correct?

    and Rol Lew thanks for the input.

  43. Ana Says:

    I am not asked, but will provide my opinion on HGU.TO

    I am waiting for this to get closer to the other side of the multi year Head and Shoulder.

    This is also the bottom of the bollinger band.

  44. Ana Says:

    # 43. Sorry that is the other side of the inverse head and shoulder.

  45. steve Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thank you for the chart. No need for volume. I find the daily charts gives far too many whipsaws so i only rely on the weekly charts.
    You or any other Renko followers may want to experiment with these settings. DH mentioned FCU.to today provides a very good chart getting ready for the next reversal down.

  46. Sherri Says:

    For those who like Bonds, from Armstrong:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/bonds-v-shares/

  47. Mark/BC Says:

    steve,

    Thank you for sharing how you’re using Renko as it’s on my list of “to learn” for this year. It saves me from having to find all of the Renko discussions from a while back.

  48. Ron/BC Says:

    Steve
    So what ‘exactly’ are you looking for with a buy or sell signal? The Macd Histogram And with the RSI confirming? Or is a box color change most important as it is price based? Or do you also put on trendines or horizontal support and resistance lines on the boxes? Just trying to prioritize those indicators.

  49. Ron/BC Says:

    LonyJ%
    They all have a different beta. In other words each has its own level of volatility. And that is accentuated with HGU.to being a bull ‘Plus’ ETF. Gold is influenced by the value of the U.S.$ and while the CD$ is also affected much the same way it is not affected exactly the same. The CD$ is about 9% of the U.S.$ Index basket. Bottom line: they all have different relationships. Never count on each tracking each other ‘exactly’ as they never will. A weekly chart would smooth out the data better as well. Not so much with Bull Plus ETFs though.

  50. Paula Says:

    NeilAB re your post #49 from January 10th (which I did not see until the next day – I’ve had lots of social commitments, so delayed in replying), after my post and logging off, I actually went to look for my copy of “Thinking Fast and Slow”. It had been mentioned in the book I spoke of and I figured it was about time I read it – had bought it several years before but been meaning to read it. So I thought it was funny that you are reading it at this time.

  51. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC re your post #42 from January 11th on sector rotation. Mark/BC had some good suggestions using StockCharts, of which you are already a member. StockCharts also has this Sector ETFs, which you can play around with the time frames in the bottom right hand corner:

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?%5BSECT%5D

    There are also the Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG). Have you see these?

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/rrg/

  52. Mark/BC Says:

    RE: CNQ.TO & POU.TO

    I wanted to buy CNQ.TO today with its $1 annual dividend and its 16 year dividend growth history and tons of volume. But I went with POU.TO instead despite the much lighter volume to start positioning for the upcoming seasonal strength in XLE which Tom Bowley has been talking about for a while. The months of February, March and April are XLE’s strongest months in terms of average outperformance of the S&P 500 over the past 20 years (see his Jan 7/17 blog on sector relative strength).

    POU.TO bounced off the bottom of its uptrend channel on the daily charts today, and remains well above its 200 EMA. Also, the SCTR is at 80.9 and did a nice “V” reversal today at the 75 line which Greg Schnell likes to see as confirmation of a reversal. On the weekly, it bounced off the 20 EMA so far this week and remains clearly in an uptrend.

    CNQ.TO broke thru the bottom of its uptrend channel on the daily charts a couple days back and hit a low of $39.99 today, bouncing off its 200 EMA at $40.05 & $40 support/resistance and S2 pivot levels, before closing above at $40.41. Also, the SCTR is much weaker at 14.9. On the weekly, CNQ.TO has broken well below its 20 EMA of $42.10 so far this week. So I’m waiting on this one.

    Keeping my fingers crossed that oil/CAD$ doesn’t tank now that I’ve starting going long…

  53. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV
    Thanks for the link. I do read Thackray’s monthly letter as I get it in the mail. I see that’s the January letter and I didn’t see it yet.I just noticed my email was somehow changed to subject rather than ‘received’. This new laptop is fast but sure does some kinky things especially while typing,especially when posting on this site. I find most stock sites are vague and not that timely which is most important to me. I think I’ll just have to read letters such as Thackray’s along with Stockcharts Sector info and just do some ratio charts and look for trendline breaks etc. Just trying to reduce decision making on the trading or investing and just ride trends with the sector ETFs. Thanks again.

  54. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    Thanks for the links. I haven’t see the RRG info before.

  55. steve Says:

    RON/BC
    The box colour change is the most important part in this short term trading.
    So far for a buy signal i look for the daily and weekly MacD Histograms to coincide on 0.000 line. I also check what price movement is needed for the box to change colour if you are sure you can put in a buy on stop order at this point. I keep an eye out for the location of the RSI. When the box colour changes I place my order.
    It is sometimes difficult in the morning on a strong opening to get a good fill. However, one can use a buy on stop.
    To place a sell order in a trade that I am long I only wait for the weekly MacD Histogram to go negative below the 0.000 line and for the box colour to change. You can also use the sell on stop order.

    When I was back testing this I found that it worked best when the daily and weekly MacD Histograms coincided to establish a position. I have not paid much attention to the sell side I take what the market gives me and move on.

    It is interesting to note that MIck/NV is looking to buy CNQ so am I, only waiting for the box colour to change, similar for PEY.to

  56. Ron/BC Says:

    Steve
    Ok,thanks for the details. I thought the box change would be critical along with confirmation with the Histogram and RSI. I’ll look at some stocks with it again as it’s been awhile since I’ve actually used it. Using Weekly charts would reduce the whipsaws also.

  57. Bernie Says:

    Re: #56 Renko
    Interesting strategy Steve. Do you still use the “at limit” .001 point box setting?

  58. Ron/BC Says:

    Steve
    Here is the Weekly Renko chart of CNQ with the RSI 8 and Histogram 5,8,3. I see this stock runs up and down from top to bottom and back to top about $4 each time. I would think stocks that have a much higher dollar move up and down would be preferable. Ex: XGD.to rallied up roughly $2.50 since Christmas but GDXJ rallied up about $10. I’ve noticed many nice looking charts don’t move much in ‘dollars’ while some move up a lot of dollars with a same looking chart. So with the big dollar change stocks you would likely make a lot more money after buying and selling on the signals. I noticed this particularly after trading XGD.to as well as GDXJ.

  59. Ron/BC Says:

    Steve
    Forgot the chart

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p09734524955

  60. steve Says:

    Bernie
    Read #29

  61. Ron/BC Says:

    Steve
    Here is the Weekly Renko chart of the U.S.Energy ETF:XLE. I’d prefer to buy a well balanced ETF like this than a single stock I think. Nice solid signals using the RSI 8 with the 2ema along with the Macd Histogram with a 2ema to reduce false signals. I’ve drawn vertical dotted lines at the buy signals on the RSI 8 at the 30 line and they seem to be working well to date.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p41363964191&a=499217503

  62. NeilAB Says:

    Paula
    #51
    “Thinking…” is quite fun, though a bit sloggy at times. I’m only about a third of the way through. I question his grand division of our thought processes into basically 2 “systems” but I’m too early in the book to know where he is going with it.
    I should be through it in a week or two, depending on how my other reads go… I’m also reading “All the light we cannot see” which I’m really enjoying, and re-reading, for like the fifth time but not for many years, “Crime and Punishment” by Dostoyevsky.
    Of course, as usual, I keep getting them mixed up so I’m never really sure what is happening in any of them. Just like life.
    Anyway, if I ever actually make it through “Thinking…” I’d be happy to share my thoughts.
    BTW ,interesting, Michael Lewis’ (“the big short”, “moneyball” “liar’s poker” etc.) latest book is about Kahneman an his sometimes cohort Tversky.
    Who knew this kind of stuff could be a major feature film??? I would just love to watch the exchange between Tom Cruise and Dwayne Johnson discussing behavioural economics. A can’t miss blockbuster if I’ve ever seen one.

  63. Mick/NV Says:

    Ron/BC

    The problem with some of these etf’s are the % of the components in the etf. For xle , xom and cvx comprise a little over 30% of the etf, the etf’s performance last year at least, assuming that the % stayed the same, was essentially the performance of these 2 stocks , so having these 2 stocks in your portfolio should mimic the etf, you will get a better dividend and not have to pay a MER although in the case of xle the MER is a reasonable .14

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&st=2016-01-01&en=2017-01-02&id=p13512340159

  64. Wayne Says:

    Ron/BC, Steve,

    Re: Renko. I wish that it could be this easy.

    I have discovered that Renko only works with low beta stocks. Forget using the leveraged double and triple ETF’s. The single ETF’s work best.

    The big question concerns whether you use intra day price – or the close for buy/sell triggers.
    Where do you place your stops? You can be stopped out on an intra-day price spike, and have the etf close up on the day.
    I analyzed several etf’s last year and adjusted the size of the box to accommodate large price moves. I found a box size of .25 to work best.
    But, there were times when the intra day price moved down several boxes – stopped me out and resumed the uptrend at the close.

    No holy grail yet…..

  65. steve Says:

    Ron/BC
    Its not easy in this 8 year bull market to find a lot of bargains.So short term trading appeals to me right now. During this latest cold weather period I have been spending my spare time near a warm wood stove and played around with Renko to come up with the latest twist. For this system to work well for you, you need a list of securities that provide enough volatility between trading signals. Tawney mentioned some time ago WHR-N take a look at that chart. There are many others e.g. TECK,CP,CNI,LNR.to etc. If you really want some action take a look at $SPX,$OEX $WTIC.
    Will be interesting to see how I make out over a longer period of time what the net gain will be. As you know there are only two guarantees in life and stock trading is not one of them.

  66. Ron/BC Says:

    Steve
    I’ve got the 10 Sector ETFs on the NYSE saved and with one of them in Renko settings I can quickly change XLE to XLY or any of the others and get a quick look at the Weekly charts. And I’ll add SPY and IWM and QQQ. I agree the Daily charts with Renko are all over the place which is why I didn’t trade with them. Too much whipsaws. But the Weekly smooths out the signals nicely. Ex:XLE looks like it’s setting up. I’ll keep track of those 10 Sector ETFs and see just how well they pan out. So far some of them look good but even with the Weekly charts some do give signals that only run up a buck or two which when getting in and out again doesn’t leave much wiggle room. Prefer longer spans of up and down. Good to take another look at them again and with Weekly charts they have more potential for sure.

  67. Bernie Says:

    steve,

    Re: Renko
    Lots of posts today and I’m late to the party. Thanks for sharing your strategy & indicators.

  68. steve Says:

    Wayne
    Agreed no holy grail yet.
    I don’t use intraday data any more too many whipsaws. I will give this a good shot with using weekly data with ” AT LIMIT” box sizes.
    Do a paper trade yourself and see if it works for you.

  69. Wayne Says:

    Steve,
    I use weekly charts on most of my positions – (Gold, Crude) they give you a better picture of trend. I slowly came to the same conclusion regarding intra-day moves – NOISE!! The only price that mattered was the end of day price. Weekly chart gave you the trend, S/R areas etc…
    Appreciate your time and effort.

  70. steve Says:

    Wayne
    I just checked out your .25 box size on QQQ the charts are very similar it turns out that the “AT LIMIT” box size is .21.
    I find that by using .001 it will give the “AT LIMIT” box size every time irregardless of stock price thus providing consistency.
    I assumed you had gone away from using RENKO.nice to have company.

  71. Ana Says:

    $SPX Possibility?

    https://invst.ly/327si

  72. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Here is the Daily chart of the $SPX. Spinning its wheels at the top of its channel with a large negative divergence. Doesn’t guarantee a selloff but I wouldn’t bet a dime on more upside next. Right now in post market trading price is up two points.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p26769718005&a=475593806

  73. Ana Says:

    #73. Ron/BC

    Thank you for your chart and comments.

    Usually the patterns that are made on the 15, 30 and 60 minute work out. I just thought I would try to see what was working on a longer scale!

    I had a good day today as I bought hvu.to on Wednesday at the close. The volume was very light today on uvxy because it split on Thursday, so many people could not trade it. No shares were available at the new price.

    Will see tomorrow where we go. Might be a light day for volume for Friday because Monday is a trading holiday in the USA for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Keep that in mind if you are trading tomorrow.

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