Tech Talk for Monday March 20th 2017

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Editor’s Note: Next Tech Talk report is available on Monday March 27th

The Bottom Line

Highs set by U.S. equity markets on March 1st (2,400.98 for the S&P 500 Index and 21,169.11 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average) likely will prove to be intermediate highs lasting well into April and possibly longer. North American equity markets rallied briefly last week following release of the FOMC announcement, but failed to move to new highs. Traders continue to look for excuses triggered by short term technical indicators to take profits in North American equities. International equity markets (particularly emerging markets) continue to offer better opportunities for equity investors during their current period of seasonal strength lasting into at least early May.

 

Observations

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks was mildly bullish last week: 47 stocks broke intermediate resistance levels and 11 stocks broke intermediate support levels. However, most of the stocks breaking resistance already were in uptrends. Number of stocks in an uptrend increased to 337 from 335, number of stocks in a neutral trend remained at 51 and number of stocks in a downtrend slipped to 112 from 114. The Up/Down ratio increased last week to (337/112=) 3.01 from 2.94.

Short term technical indicators (e.g. 20 day moving averages, short term momentum indicators) for a wide variety of equity indices, sectors and commodities) recovered slightly, but in many cases have returned to overbought levels.

Intermediate technical indicators (e.g. Percent of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index) remain intermediate overbought and are trending down.

Prospects for S&P 500 companies for the first quarter and 2017 remain promising. According to FactSet, first quarter earnings are expected to increase on a year-over-year basis by 9.0% and revenues are expected to increase 7.2% (unchanged from the previous week). 78 companies have issued negative first quarter earnings guidance while 32 companies have issued positive guidance. Consensus for 2017 calls for a 9.8% in earnings per share and a 5.3% increase in revenues. Consensus for 2018 calls for a 12.0% increase in earnings per share and a 4.8% increase in revenues.

Economic focus this week in the U.S. is on New Home Sales on Thursday. A small increase is anticipated.

Economic focuses in Canada this week are on the Budget on Wednesday evening, January Retail Sales on Tuesday and February Consumer Prices on Thursday.

Earnings news is quiet this week. U.S. focuses are on Nike on Tuesday and KB Homes on Thursday. Canadian focuses are on Lennar on Tuesday and Power Corp on Friday.

International focus is on the G20 Finance Ministers meeting that occurred over the weekend.

History shows U.S. equity markets struggle in March and April after a first term President is elected. Election promises prove to take longer than expected to implement due to time needed to install a new cabinet and working through the Congressional process with new political friends and foes. Trump’s tenure to date as President has been controversial at best and uncoordinated at worst.

Thought on the Financial Services sector: Bank stocks on both sides of the border recorded significant technical deterioration last week. Notable was weakness in the S&P Financials Index on Friday when Relative Strength turned negative and the Index dropped below its 20 day moving average. Momentum indicators already had turned down.

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Ditto for the Canadian banks! ZEB.TO completed a double top pattern on a move below $28.03

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Thoughts on the precious metals and precious metal equity sectors: Their periods of seasonal strength from mid-December to late February expired on scheduled this year. After losing approximately half of their gains since the third week in February, they reached short term bottoms 10 days ago and recovered nicely last week. Short term technical indicators (momentum, 20 day moving averages) turned positive last week. If continued to be held, stick with the trade until short term technical indicators become overbought and show signs of rolling over. It’s a question of “When do I take trading profits”? Stay tuned.

Thoughts on the U.S. and Canadian Energy sectors: The TSX Energy Index is in the early stages of forming a potential double bottom pattern. Relative strength improved to neutral and short term momentum indicators turned higher last week. The S&P Energy Index also showed improved short term momentum indicators. These are encouraging technical signs during a period when their seasonal trends are positive until mid-May. However, improving technical signs to date are not yet sufficient to introduce/add to positions for a seasonal trade. Stay tuned!

 

Economic News This Week

Canadian January Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 1.1% versus a decline of 0.5% in December. Excluding auto sales, Canadian January Retail Sales are expected to increase 1.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in December

February Existing Homes to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to slip to 5.54 million units from 5.69 million units in January.

Canadian Budget is released at 4:00 AM EDT on Wednesday.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to dip to 239,000 from 241,000 last week.

February New Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 560,000 units from 555,000 units in January.

February Durable Goods Orders to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 1.3% versus a gain of 1.8% in January. Excluding Transportation, February Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase 0.7% versus a decline of 0.2% in January.

February Canadian Consumer Price Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.9% in in January.

 

Earnings News This Week

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 17th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Calculating Technical Scores

Technical scores are calculated as follows:

 

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

        Higher highs and higher lows

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

        Not up or down

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

        Lower highs and lower lows

 

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

 

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

 

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

 

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

 

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower.

 

The S&P 500 Index added 5.65 points (0.24%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (Also known as the S&P 500 Momentum Barometer) increased last week to 69.00 from 68.80. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 80.00 from 76.20. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index was unchanged last week at 76.60% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks dropped to 72.29% from 73.09% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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The TSX Composite Index slipped another 16.27 points (0.10%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from up on a move below 15,396 (Score: -2). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative (Score: -2). The Index remains below its 20 day moving average (Score: -1). Short term momentum indicators are trending up (Score: 1). Technical score dropped last week to -4 from -2

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (Also known as the TSX Momentum Barometer) increased last week to 46.94 from 44.67. Percent remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 64.08 from 63.52. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 11.64 points (0.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index slipped to Neutral from Positive. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to 2 from 4.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks increased last week to 86.67% from 83.33% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week to 64.36% from 64.08% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 39.27 points (0.67%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 0.

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The Russell 2000 Index gained 26.26 points (1.92%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -2.

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The Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped 144.31 points (1.55%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicator remains down. Technical score remained last week at -2.

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The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 29.60 points (0.51%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index improved to Neutral from Negative. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 4 from 0.

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The Nikkei Average dropped 83.02 points (0.42%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Neutral. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Technical score remained last week at 4.

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Europe iShares gained $0.92 (2.25%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Units remained above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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The Shanghai Composite Index gained 24.69 points (0.77%) last week. Intermediate trend remains Neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index improved to Neutral from Negative. The Index slipped back below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 0 from -4.

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Emerging Markets ETF gained $1.50 (3.85%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Negative. Units moved above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 6 from -2.

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Currencies

The U.S. Dollar dropped another 0.93 (0.92%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Dollar moved below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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The Euro added 0.46 (0.43%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Euro moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The Canadian Dollar gained US 0.70 cents (0.94%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Canuck Buck remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The Japanese Yen added 1.54 (1.77%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Yen moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The British Pound gained 2.19 (1.80%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Pound moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 17th 2017clip_image002[9]

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

The CRB Index gained 1.83 points (1.00%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to -4 from -6.

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Gasoline added $0.01 per gallon (0.62%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Gas remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to -4 from -6

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Crude Oil gained $0.82 per barrel (1.69%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Crude remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to -4 from -6.

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Natural Gas dropped $0.16 (5.32%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. “Natty” remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 0 from 2.

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The S&P Energy Index gained 1.67 points (0.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to -4 from -6.

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The Philadelphia Oil Services Index added 1.24 points (0.74%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score improved last week to -4 from -6.

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Gold gained $28.80 per ounce (2.40%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. Gold moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 4 from -2.

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Silver gained $0.49 per ounce (2.90%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Silver remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -2.

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The AMEX Gold Bug Index added 8.82 points (4.73%) last week. Intermediate trend remains Neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 2 from -4.

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Platinum gained $24.80 per ounce (2.64%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Relative strength remained Negative. Trades below its 20 day MA. Momentum turned up. Score: 0

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Palladium gained $30.65 per ounce (4.11%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. PALL moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum trend up. Technical score increased to 4

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Copper gained $0.09 per lb. (3.46%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. Copper moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from -2.

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The BMO Base Metal Equity ETF gained $0.37 (3.81%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -2

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Lumber dropped $0.70 (0.19%) last week. Trend changed to down. Relative strength remained Negative. Trades below its 20 day MA. Momentum remains down. Score down to -6 from 0

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Grain ETN slipped $0.02 (0.07%) last week. Trend remains Neutral. Relative strength remains Negative. Units trade below their 20 day moving average. Momentum turned up. Technical score improved to -2 from -4.

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The Agriculture ETF added $0.22 (0.41%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. Units moved above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -6.

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Interest Rates

Yield on 10 year Treasuries dropped 8.1 basis points (3.14%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Yield remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down.

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Conversely, price of the long term Treasury ETF gained $1.39 (1.19%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving average.

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Volatilty

The VIX Index dropped 0.40 (3.43%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index dropped below its 20 day moving average.

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Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 17th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

StockTwits Released on Friday

Job increases show weakest January increase on record.

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Breakouts: $TIF $MMC $CTAS $ECL $ALL. No breakdowns

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included CERN, UPS, FFIV, CHD, GD, PG, RTN, AEE and RHI. No breakdowns.

Coal ETF $KOL moved above $$13.70 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Procter & Gamble $PG moved above $91.89 to an all-time high extending an uptrend.

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Accountability Report

Financial SPDRs (XLF $24.45) was selected for a seasonal trade on January 13th at $23.73 when its technical parameters turned positive. Its technical parameters turned negative on Friday: Relative strength turned Negative, units dropped below their 20 day moving average and short term momentum indicators already had turned down. Accordingly, units no longer are supported.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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80 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday March 20th 2017”

  1. LonyJ Says:

    Bernie – re REITs discussion on the weekend
    Are there sources beyond the Dividend All Stars that you look to for dividend growth stocks?
    What is your expectation for Canadian REITS in general?

  2. Dave/ab Says:

    Hi Dee.
    Back on March 16th I left a comment for you. You replied

    “Thanks, but I did not understand the phrase: “Problem is the left hand side of this graft is pretty daunting task to overcome.” Can you please explain.”

    I was looking at the graph on tho.to I was comparing the left hand side of the graph to the right hand side or the more recent activity versus the further past on the left hand side of the graph. The right hand side has lots to over come

  3. NeilAB Says:

    Bernie
    Sorry to hear about the indoor swimming pool. Ouch.

  4. JP/BC Says:

    There have been rumors that the Feds will increase the capital gains tax rate this Wednesday as part of the new budget. It sounds like there won’t be a grace period. It will either come into affect immediately or be retroactive to Jan. 1. Has anyone given thought to how an increase will impact the Canadian stock markets?

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    JP/BC
    I don’t think this Wednesday’s Federal budget will make Canadians very happy for more than one reason regardless and there will be consequences. This SPX/TSX 60 ETF that reflects the broad market saw a 2014 and 2015 double top at 2275, with price breaking out above a few months ago is right now being tested as support. A break below this 1275 level will see a correction of some magnitude and suggest many months of lower to sideways price action. This present pullback to 2275 support is the acid test of the broad market and is time to pay close attention to this ETF. One could argue there is a bearish Head and Shoulder pattern here but if you look for H&S patterns you’ll find them everywhere. Time to start holding your breath if long………………..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=_XIU.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58641452938&a=489178782

  6. JP/BC Says:

    Ron/BC
    A very telling chart. I see an image of a mountain climber having reached the summit and peering over a cliff.

  7. roy Says:

    Hello Bernie
    Sorry to hear about the issue at your home. Hope the damage to your basement and home is not too extensive and expensive.

  8. sandra Says:

    capital gains history :
    Period Inclusion rate
    1972 – 1987 50%
    1988 – 1989 66.66 %
    1990 – Feb 27, 2000 75%
    Feb 27, 2000 – Oct 17, 2000 66.66%
    After Oct 17, 2000 50%

    GOVT. is trying to encourage small businesses so hoping rate may not be increased.

  9. KC Says:

    Hello,

    Wonder if anyone here has been a long term holder of the Templeton Growth Fund Series A (cdn). Any opinions on its performance over the past 15 to 20 years ? How does it compare to other ones in its class of Global Equity please ?

    Thanks,
    KC

  10. Tawny Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks for 5… I am watching and holding breath…on watch for all but Canada really not doing – my worst holdings.

    Also I much prefer holding ETF’s – easier in and out… no earnings reports that can be nerve wracking and my research tells me one is better off… esp. holding ultras (2x) during bull – can switch to bear 2x too.

    I am trying to figure out best opp to divest my individual stocks… any ideas>

    NTRL Weather here has been really warming up – but not humid. Currently at about 24 at noon – yesterday high was 28 ish. But does not feel hot.
    Lots been happening here.. my health still not back to pre toxic poisoning from antibiotic mid Dec. The my Tawny dog had a leg amputation above the knee on a hind leg. She is now Tripawd Tawny. It has been a stressful time but she is okay. Both old dogs doing well for 15.

  11. still_learning Says:

    re #4,

    If Trudeau increases the tax on cap gains and dividends by a lot, I’m going to scale back my stock investments. Getting too old (68) to keep playing this ‘game’ with more risk for less and less return. In fact, I moved some money out of stocks into GIC’s last week. Depends on one’s position in life and tolerance for change I suppose?

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Tawny
    I also prefer ETFS for the same reasons. I refuse to hold stocks below my purchase price so a diverse ETF does smooth prices out. Wednesdays budget will determine a lot.

  13. JP/BC Says:

    Bernie: I’m so sorry to hear about your flood. I hope you get it remedied quickly. I have dealt with the same, so can empathize.

    Tawny: Too bad about your dog. I hope your health recovers to normal levels. I am envious of your temperatures. We have been below normal since last Decemeber. I am ready for real spring weather.

  14. Tawny Says:

    Ron/BC and any one who has a suggestion

    Ron, first thanks for 12… it is amazing that even my 3x MIDU and 2 x HQU have far less volatility than stocks… so much easier in my opinion to handle… a lot less work. Easy enough to set stops (mental or hard) on when to get out and or resume. I do not need to beat the markets but if you do charts and include doubles .. the returns are awesome in a bull.

    I wish to divest my stock holdings – any suggestions on a method – a chart or?
    Or should I just take the bull by the horns and do it all at once.
    Truly open for suggestions…. I need to simplify this area of my life.

  15. Bernie Says:

    Tawny,

    Re: suggestion for an ETF
    A while back I posted a link to an article by Gordon Pape titled “Stock Smarts: An ETF That Offers A High Yield And Growth”. When I posted it I was thinking that you might be quite interested in this one. Don’t know if you caught my comment but here’s the link again: http://www.everythingzoomer.com/etf-high-yeild-growth

  16. Bernie Says:

    Thanks for the kind comments regarding our basement flooding issue. Its been a stressful five days and counting for my wife and I. When we purchased our home last May we knew they had a previous bout of flooding in the past but felt the problem had been fixed. What the realtor and previous owner (heirs) didn’t know about or want to reveal were the “other” water damage issues in the past. In chatting with neighbours we’ve learned there have been 4 or 5 other flooding problems since the house was built in 1980. Had we known about this we wouldn’t have purchased in the first place. What is really unfortunate is there is no evidence of intent to deceive or insurance for flooding caused by ground water.

    The restoration specialist we hired has been a godsend. He not only knows his stuff but he also must be a Psych major. He’s really kept us level headed and on the path to “getting things fixed” right. We’ve lost some goods to water damage but 90% of our basement belongings were ok and have been moved into a seacan sitting in our driveway. Its quite noisy around here today. Plumbers are installing a sump system in the furnace room.

  17. Ana Says:

    Hi Bernie,

    I posted this on the wrong date!

    Ana Says:
    March 20th, 2017 at 4:29 pm
    Bernie,
    I am so sorry to hear about your flooding basement. I had to do most of the labour when my mother’s basement flooding in Saskatchewan. It was a mess. There were no companies available because the entire region was hit with high ground water. Do you have a sump pump installed in the basement? That would be of great value.

  18. Tawny Says:

    JP/BC

    Thanks for your kind words… my Tawny dog is 15 – she is alive and quite healthy. Dogs are quite adaptable, though like people younger is easier. It is now 3 weeks – she has healed and is learning. At this age they pretty much sleep and eat .

  19. Tawny Says:

    Bernie

    That flood is not nice – sorry for you. You know realtors have an obligation of disclosure – you may have a claim on this if you want to look into it. But a word of caution – it is always the lawyers that win… still it may be a cut and clear case – worth a check ?

  20. Tawny Says:

    Bernie,

    Thanks for the ETF in #15… I like it. However, I just ran a one year comparison:
    TSF 25% (+ dividends) vs HQU 46%. Of course the latter is more volatile but, in a good bull market ???
    But I might use TSF in a reg’d plan. Also bought ZWH.to a couple of days ago – good 5 star ETF and the chart holds a cup and handle in MHO.

    Can you tell me why I should continue to hold AD.to and EIF.to. ?? What are your thoughts?
    As said I hope to divest most stocks and switch to just a few ETFs.

    Thanks for all your help.

  21. Bernie Says:

    Ana,
    Re: #17
    Sump system is not in place. After the cleanup, drying and checking for moisture we’ll likely put everything on pallets for 2 years to see if flooding comes back.

    Tawny,
    My wife did check with our lawyer today. As we were told of the flooding which occurred last winter and there is no evidence of intent to deceive we really have no legal recourse. Apparently, realtors don’t HAVE to disclose this stuff anyway.

    Lesson learned…independently talk with neighbours about possible issues BEFORE making an offer to purchase. We’ve also become flood experts according to our restoration specialist.

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Tawny
    Been out all day as usual but read Bernie’s comments about TXF.to. Here is the chart and one can’t argue with success. Nice looking chart for sure,to date. Not much volume but ‘they say’ that doesn’t matter with ETFs. ZWH.to has a nice chart as well. I’ll be glad when Wednesday’s Budget comes and goes.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TXF.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99515369766&a=513827584

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZWH.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47596013559&a=448231121

  23. Tawny Says:

    Ron/BC
    #22. Yes they are both looking good. Both US holdings and these days the US has a lot more momentum. Nice dividend. Wow I just took my comparison chart and changed to 5 year. HQU has a
    638% return ! ZWH not performing nearly as well as TSF – we are living with advancing technology.

  24. Bernie Says:

    Tawny,

    Re#20
    Morningstar shows TXF 1-yr TR of 34% vs HQU 47% but the ETFs are different beasts. I thought you wanted income, ie; TXF yield is 5.54% vs HQU 0.00%. Also HQU is 2x leveraged so risk is much greater.

    As for AD and EIF. I own them for income and dividend growth. I see no reason for a dividend cut so I’m quite happy to hold them. I don’t worry about price fluctuations because I’m not looking to buy or sell.

  25. Bernie Says:

    Ana,

    Re: #21
    Sorry, meant to say sump system is now in place.

  26. Tawny Says:

    Bernie

    Thanks for all. Good explanations. For me increased capital is also available money to spend.
    I will have holdings for cap gains (if I play my cards right) and some for income in a few portfolios too. Yes, HQU and all the leveraged are increased risk and must be closely watched but not so hard to watch just a few holdings and cut when trend changes. I understand your income approach… appropriate for some of my portfolios too.

  27. Deb Says:

    Tawny – NTR,

    When you have a chance, would you mind e-mailing me at gstener889@gmail.com? Several months ago we were looking into the Law Chapala area – but I got cold feet due being a bit concerned about driving there. We are looking at it again and do know someone there who drives from Arizona to there. We are thinking we would like to go for part of the winter next year. Wouldn’t mind keeping in touch in case we have any questions. We are a little late looking for rentals for 3 months at the moment I think, but may be able to get a rental for longer if we wait for those who are unable to get a 12 month renter. I realize you are in Ajijic – we are looking at that area – tan between trying for a rental in a quiet area vs experiencing Mexico.

    Look forward to chatting with you.

    Deb

  28. Ana Says:

    Bernie,

    Glad to hear that the sump pump has been installed. Now just make sure that the discharge from the sump pump is far away from the backfill zone. Check the downspouts too, to be sure that the downspout extensions are far away from the backfill zone. There should be also a positive drainage away from the exterior foundation wall. (Just a few things that I have been exposed to in my past experiences!)

    Good luck with the clean up! A dehumidifier is a great addition to a basement with humidity.

  29. Bernie Says:

    Ana,

    NTR
    Thanks for your thoughts. The newly added sump pump discharges into the floor drain so no issues there. No problem with downspout extensions on three corners of the house but the other corner is questionable and will be modified and extended from the structure. Its also been recommended we excavate soil from the foundation, inspect and then waterproof and/or replace weeping tiles.

  30. Bernie Says:

    LonyJ,

    Re: #1

    Until recently, only REF.UN and PLZ.UN were on the dividend All Stars. Still very few view REITs as dividend growers per se. My sources for info on REITs in general are far and wide, ie; Seeking Alpha, BNN, Motley Canada, various blogs, etc. I haven’t looked at REITs in action during rising interest rates so I can’t say for sure how they’ll do. I suspect they’ll be ok if rates rise slowly as they tend to adjust to inflation fairly well. I suggest you not overload REITs or any sector, for that matter, in your portfolio. Its probably wise to diversify across the sectors.

  31. LonyJ Says:

    Bernie – as always – thanks for the good advice

  32. Mick/NV Says:

    Bernie

    Ntr

    Sorry to hear about your flooding, you might be surprised to find out that you do not have drain tiles around your foundation, depends on when the house was built, regardless I suspect you still have a nice place in a very nice city. Hope everything works out.

  33. Paul Says:

    Bernie, you should also install an UPS (Un-interupted Power Supply / Battery Backup) with a power failure alarm for your sump pump. It will help cover / alert you if you lose power to your pump (e.g.: your panel breaker trips) or if there is a neighbourhood grid power failure during a storm. They’re not expensive. Thanks for all the great info you’ve posted here that I’ve been fortunate to benefit from. Paul

  34. Mick/NV Says:

    Having a look at TD.to this morning, it appears the bad news of last week is still having an effect on the stock price as the trend is down with no sign yet of flattening out. It does look interesting at this level though but would wait to see whether it tests the S1 pivot point support, will see if the budget has any affect. Own this one but will hold off buying until I see that flattening or change in direction.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p55062134466&a=402003323

  35. Sherri Says:

    Sobering insight into today’s markets. Worth a read anyway:

    https://jugglingdynamite.com/2017/03/21/spending-years-making-back-losses-is-not-wise-capital-management/

  36. DH Says:

    Bernie,

    Sorry to hear about the flooding. Glad your sump pump is up and running.

  37. Ron/BC Says:

    BNS.to that tends to be the most volatile CD bank was testing price support and its uptrendline but unfortunately is breaking down. Thought it might be a good trade on the test but ‘so far’ isn’t looking positive like a lot of stocks etc. Then again looking at the 20 year trend of the CD banks, prices are stretched out like a rubber band and very overdue for a serious pullback like the rest of the broad market. Not a good time to fall in love with stocks from what I see.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BNS.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84772962537&a=513554609

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75487217554&a=422272328

  38. Ron/BC Says:

    To make the point about my #37 post (2nd chart on the CD banks) here is the TD.to chart that is approaching its one year uptrendline. This chart is typical of many stocks and ETFs. The 2016 steep stock market rally looks like it is the long term trend of stocks. But looking at a long term chart one can see the 2016 rally of the broad market was very steep and not the long term trend that tends to rise on a 45 degree angle. Most charts shown on stock sites are a few months at best that look dramatic and exciting while on a longer term chart are often very overbought and stretched out to extremes. Just something to keep in mind. Shorter term charts are best for ‘short term’ trading but a long term chart shows the ‘relative’ performance of a stock or ETF. The 2016 stock market rally was steep and will likely break this uptrendline and pullback to its long term uptrendline support areas at some point. Presently this long term uptrendline on TD.to is at about $53 which is also solid price support. Doesn’t mean this one year steep uptrendline won’t continue for now but definitely keep this long term trend in mind as price will test this long term trendline again like all stocks do even if the long term uptrendline continues.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19030436278&a=505259409

  39. dutchcanuck Says:

    Bernie
    See that AD announced their dividend. Still “no rise” as the Brits like to say?

    Hope things are getting back to normal for you, friend.

  40. Sherri Says:

    Latest from Armstrong:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/market-recap-4/

  41. Tawny Says:

    Don’t like this 🙁

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/market-recap-4/

  42. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie NTR
    I once had a house that had a natural spring in the back yard. Always had green grass but the back yard was always soggy. So I dug a deep trench from the back of the yard to my drain tiles at the house and filled it with drain tile and drain rock and that took care of the spring. I could always hear water running through the tiles even in the hot summer with no rain. Did not have a basement though. The 1st house I bought did have an occasional flood in the part basement and it had a permanent sump pump set up just for when it flooded. My last house I closed in a carport to become a garage but the driveway and carport floor was only less than an inch difference in height. So even though there was a drain at the end of the driveway, leaves,fir tree needles etc would plug the drain cover and water would then fill the garage up. Just never know when the water will make your life miserable. On the West Coast the biggest damage of water is the rotting of wooden sundecks. Should be a law preventing sundecks to be make of wood. Even the railings and uprights and steps rot regardless of good maintenance. Very expensive to replace and most homeowners don’t realize just how bad the condition is before calling a contractor. But I guess the problem is not as bad as the leaky condo problem was on the West Coast. Last summer my partner and I bought a nice condo 2 blocks from the waterfront but after reading the inspection report and strata minutes we would have had to spend somewhere between $30K and $60K for a complete remediation of the building due to water damage. So we rescinded our offer that was subject to inspection and walked away. Just can’t beat water problems.

  43. dutchcanuck Says:

    Bernie
    Is your drinking water OK? Understand that with previous floods it got contaminated.

  44. Tawny Says:

    Sherri 🙂

  45. Sherri Says:

    Tawny 🙂

    Great minds………. I’m planning on trading the HVU and HXD a little during this pullback and then finally put some of my cash to work when the good stuff is oversold. That is if everything goes to MY plan!!!

  46. Martine Says:

    Bernie,

    Sorry about your troubles with your basement. I saw your last comments about waterproofing. It might not be a bad idea at all. However, I thought I should share my story about my damp basement. When I bought my house some 20 years ago, we bought as is as it was old and needed a lot of work besides the issue with the basement which came afterwards. It smelt really bad. We cleaned up and everything, but it remained damp and it flooded once. We had the pipes to the street replaced but it would not do it. We got two estimates for water proofing. One guy said you need to do it, but the other said don’t bother. $20M about 20 years ago. Money I did not have. We got two more estimates. Same thing. Who to believe? My partner at the time with a laborer we hired decided to break the floor where it always remained wet. It was just sand. I live by the lake. In three different spots, they removed the sand and replaced with crushed stones,then poured concrete. That was 20 years ago. I never had an issue again and saved $20M. You might want to talk to a few more people even if, by the look of it, you seem to be in good hands. That’s my two cents’ worth. Best of luck.

  47. Ron/BC Says:

    The U.S.$ has pulled back to the 99 ‘area’ support once again. This is also the uptrendline from August and must hold to maintain the existing uptrend. The new U.S.government would create a lot more jobs with a lower dollar and that does seem to be the main goal of theirs. Bottom line: Watch this 99 level to hold or break to determine direction. Inverse markets would rally sharply on a breakdown of the U.S.$ as well. Note the ratio chart above of $CDW:$USD for a breakout above the downtrendline “if” the U.S.$ breaks support. Tomorrow’s Canadian Budget should cause some market reaction as well.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0

  48. Ron/BC Says:

    WRONG CHART in #47
    This ‘should’ show the U.S.$ with technicals…..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89225595896&a=477936539

  49. Bernie Says:

    NTR
    Re: flooding
    Thanks again for all the kind comments and helpful suggestions…lots to think about! Our house is drying nicely now. So far no drinking water issues. We should be fine although with a big hit to our savings. I imagine the gov’t will deliver us another one today.

  50. NRG Says:

    49 Bernie

    NTR
    I had a similar experience. I ended up hiring a crew to install interior weeping tile on one exterior wall. They jackhammered a trench and removed buckets and buckets of mud. Added gravel and weeping tile leading to a new sump and pump. No issues after that. Good luck.
    Price 25 years ago about $2300.

  51. Mick/NV Says:

    TD.to nicely gapped down below the s2 pivot point support at the open and I decided to pick up some shares. The gap has since closed. I certainly may be in early and who knows how stocks will be affected tomorrow morning after the budget. TD is a quality company in my view regardless of the recent media frenzy about it’s, yet, unproven selling techniques, most of all the dividend is safe.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p55062134466&a=402003323

  52. dutchcanuck Says:

    BIP/UN one of 3 highs on TSE today.

  53. Ana Says:

    #45 Sherri,

    If you are trading Hvu.to I would watch for a rebound here in the $SPX and maybe look for another opportunity after the American Health Care Act is passed or not. I am not sure on the timing of this vote. Maybe some one else following could help with the time line.

  54. Bernie Says:

    NRG,

    Re: #50
    Flooding problems are much more expensive these days. Our cost to date is roughly 4X your outlay of 25 years ago and will be much higher after the new downspout/trenching/waterproofing is done, hopefully in the summer. Such is life.

  55. Sherri Says:

    #53 Ana
    Thanks for that. Didn’t get in on it today.

  56. dutchcanuck Says:

    Mick/NV #51
    Well done on TD. Your patience paid off. I paid $66.01 for mine earlier.
    Huge insider buying on AQN. I believe you own it.

  57. dutchcanuck Says:

    Federal Budget
    No increase in taxes on capital gains or dividends. We’re safe till the fall when the budget update gets tabled.

  58. Mick/NV Says:

    DutchCanuck

    One never knows what will happen after you purchase a stock, TD.to is a good company but could still drop further tomorrow, I am happy with my purchase though. I think the budget today is a non event and may not have any impact on the market tomorrow.
    Thanks for the AQN info, wasn’t aware of insider buying which is always nice, insiders can sell for many reasons but buy for only one.

  59. Sherri Says:

    And the plot thickens….

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/its-confirmed-trump-was-spied-on-during-transition/

  60. roy Says:

    Hello DutchCanuck
    When was the insider buying done on AQN? Ive owned for quite a while now.

  61. dutchcanuck Says:

    Mick/NV & Roy
    Ian Robinson, CEO bought 551,663sh at $12.54 to hold 1.823,954.
    No exec sales in the past year-buys only, according to Baystreet.com

  62. roy Says:

    Thanks Dutchcanuck
    AQN has not moved up much yet since the insider purchase.

  63. NRG Says:

    FSZ. Fiera Capital

    Good quarterly results and increased dividend by 6%. Second increase in the last 12 months. Own it and may purchase more shares.
    5I recommended.

  64. Tawny Says:

    Wow – Canada, eh? So far, I am happy to be living in Mexico – mostly the climate and most of the Mexicans… lovely people, oh and the low cost of living.

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/marxist-socialism-now-relabeled-as-the-sharing-economy/

  65. Ron/BC Says:

    Tawny NTR
    BUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT, are there golf courses there and temperatures that are ‘moderate’ to enjoy??????

  66. Mick/NV Says:

    BCE.to has been in a trading range between $57.25 and $59 for most of 2017, looks like it is trying to test the R1 pivot point resistance at $58.97. If price can break thru that and hold, should run up to around $60 before pulling back. Yields around 4.8% with a dividend that has increased for the past 8 years. Whether the MTS purchase changes things in that regard don’t know but I think the dividend is safe going forward. Don’t own this one as I own Telus instead , wouldn’t buy at this level but if it dropped back to around the $57 level would be a good entry point for those looking for an investment.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p34232862345&a=413977083

    Over the past 5 years the telecoms are fairly equal in their performance, all 3 are well ahead of the TSX

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79956032754

  67. Ana Says:

    #59 and #64

    This guy, Martin Armstrong is so full of it!

    #59. This entire article by Armstrong is so off the mark. House Intelligence Committee Chair Devin Nunes (R-CA) might have jeopardized the committee credibility by not informing the rest of the committee prior to having a press conference or revealing the details to Trump. Now Nunes is in a conflict of interest situation because of his own personal ties to a company in Russia.

    #64. He is referencing a conversation with “some socialist?” In grade five, one learns how to reference the person whom you are quoting.

    These two articles are so unprofessional and sway so heavily on the side of the Republicans, it is hard to keep a serious face when one reads these!

    Stick to his forecast model not to his political comments.

    It is quite funny, really!

  68. Mark/BC Says:

    Good read on leveraged ETFs from Bloomberg:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-23/sec-may-regret-the-day-it-allowed-leveraged-etfs

  69. Bernie Says:

    Mick/NV,

    Re: #66 performance chart
    How are you able to get the different colours on your comparisons with the free version? When I change one of your indicator parameter stocks from RCI/B.TO to SJR/B.TO all three comparisons turn to black making them difficult to figure out which is which.

  70. Sherri Says:

    #67 Ana
    You’re right, it is quite funny. I’m amused quite frequently, especially with the predictable nature of human beings. Glad I could brighten your day!! 🙂

    NTR
    Ron/BC
    Missing the sunshine in Arizona yet? 😉

  71. Mick/NV Says:

    Bernie

    The color for indicators is only available to subscribers, that area is not visible on the free version. Sjr/b is attached, not done as well as the others but still well ahead of the tsx

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76070493310

  72. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri NTR
    No not missing 90 to 100 degree heat at all. Hot weather just sucks the life out of me. Victoria weather is great right now other than a few showers now and again. Was going to go golfing yesterday but it was predicted to rain and even sprinkled a bit so we didn’t bother but after a Tims coffee and some running around walked around the golf course for some exercise and sure enough there were golfers all over the place enjoying their game in the sunshine for a few hours. Plan on going this afternoon after some chores. Nice moderate temps around 10 to 12 suits me just fine. And the cost is in Canadian dollars and also cheap at a few places.

  73. Bernie Says:

    Re: #71 Thanks Mick and sorry I thought you had the free version.

  74. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    NTR
    Re: golf
    Over the past few years the golf course here (Granite Pointe) opened the last week of March. This year they’re projecting the course will open near the Easter weekend. What a difference a snowy winter makes!

  75. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie NTR
    The winter weather here was worse than normal too but all that should be behind us now. Still need to see the fairways dry up some now though. The rain doesn’t help. So we plan on spending time at the range to improve our technique regardless.

  76. Ana Says:

    #70. Sherri and Tawny,

    Yes, please do keep on posting from Martin Armstrong. It is an education! Thank you!

  77. JP/BC Says:

    Re: 72 & 75: Ron/BC: This week is a classic example of why we live in Victoria rather than the rest of BC. Yesterday the rain shadow​ caused by the Olympic Mountains gave a sunny​ mid day from the south end of town north to midway up the Saanich Peninsula. All places north of there were rainier, including the the airport where Victoria weather forecasts​ are (unfortunately) for. I got up to 15C and was gardening without a jacket.

  78. Bernie Says:

    Re: #77

    It’s sunny and 9C in Nelson right now but there’s still about 1 foot of snow in my area of town where the golf course resides. In the lower areas near the lake where it never freezes there is almost no snow. Spring has sprung.

  79. Bernie Says:

    Should you buy these bailed-out manufacturing stocks?
    https://www.adviceforinvestors.com/news/manufacturing-stocks/should-you-buy-these-bailed-out-manufacturing-stocks/

  80. Bernie Says:

    Paul,

    Re #33 UPS (Un-interupted Power Supply / Battery Backup)
    I want to purchase one of these but not sure of what to look for specifically or what is a fair price. If you have a moment could you please provide a link to an example of what you’re referring to. Thanks, again for your input.

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