Tech Talk for Friday May 19th 2017

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Editor’s Notes: Next Tech Talk report is released on Monday. Thereafter, next Tech Talk report is released on May 30th.

Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 19th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 6 points in pre-opening trade.

The Canadian Dollar added 0.14 to US 73.64 cents following release of Canadian economic data at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for April Canadian Consumer Prices was an increase of 0.6% versus a gain of 0.2% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis April CPI increased 1.6%. Consensus for April Canadian Retail Sales was an increase of 0.6% versus a gain of 0.2% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.7%.

Deere gained $7.73 to $120.40 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results.

Applied Material added $1.09 to $45.00 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly earnings. Pacific Crest and Stifel Nicolaus raised their target price on the stock. gained $2.35 to $90.10 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results. Stiffel Nicolaus, JP Morgan and Pacific Crest raised their target price on the stock.

Campbell Soup fell $2.07 to $54.50 after reporting lower than consensus fiscal third quarter earnings and revenues.

Foot Locker $7.20 to $63.40 dropped after reporting lower than consensus first quarter earnings and revenues.

Wal-Mart added $0.21 to $77.75 after RBC Capital raised its target price to $74 from $67.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

Note seasonality charts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Equally Weighted Index, Bovespa, Philly Fed and Initial Jobless Claims

Editor’s Note:  Mr. Vialoux is contributing to Mark Leibovit’s weekly radio show that is available on the internet at 10:00 AM EDT each Saturday. Station is KFNN 1510 in Phoenix. The show is repeated at 10:00 AM MNT on Sunday and a link to the show normally appears in Tech Talk on the following Monday (not this week due to holidays). Mark is a former Wall Street Week Elf and has won many awards for his service. See for background. The radio show normally includes 4-5 segments featuring well known investment professional that focus on trading opportunities. Mr. Vialoux provides a Canadian/technical analysis/seasonality analysis flavour to the show.



Bad news about politicians frequently leads to bad news for equity prices.



StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Break of horizontal support around 2325 on S&P 500 projects downside potential toward 2250.


Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to Noon: Bearish. Breakouts: $AAP $ES. Breakdowns: 17 stocks.

Editor’s Note: After Noon, HSY broke up and no stocks broke down.

Cisco $CSCO, a Dow Industrial stock completed a double top pattern on a break below $32.42.


Agriculture iShares $COW.CA moved below $36.65 and $36.36 setting an intermediate downtrend.


Mexico iShares $EWW moved below $50.42 completing a double top pattern.


Palladium ETN $PALL moved below $73.73 setting an intermediate downtrend.


SNC Lavalin $SNC.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $50.42 extending an intermediate downtrend.


Leveraged zinc ETN $LZIC.L moved below $7.00 completing a modified Head & Shoulders pattern. Stocks under pressure.


Celestica $CLS.CA moved below $18.34 completing a double top pattern.


Methanex $MX.CA moved below $56.95 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.


IGM Financial $IGM.CA moved below $39.18 completing a double top pattern.


Weakness in $KMI and Cdn. Oil Sands producer stocks does not bode well for a favourable final B.C. provincial election count early next week.





Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 18th 2017


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 18th 2017


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 18th 2017


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


S&P 500 Momentum Barometer


The Barometer added 2.00 to 46.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and in a downtrend.


TSX Momentum Barometer


The Barometer slipped another 0.99 to 43.72 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and in a downtrend.


Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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51 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday May 19th 2017”

  1. DH Says:

    For those trying to pick up Canadian banks at a ‘discount’, correct me if I’m wrong, but BNS-T looks like it has yet to break out of a downward channel and most of the recent trade volume is by sellers not buyers. I see $69 as a possible entry point down the road, but of course that may be ‘optimistic’.

  2. DH Says:

    With most commodities (esp. oil & gas, metals) resuming their long-term downtrend, I don’t see a lot in the Canadian markets to inspire confidence. Canadian financials are of course great, but will be cheaper down the road.

    For the past several months, there has been more to like in emerging market stocks, etfs and mutual funds (Chinese internet stocks like MOMO, BZUN, Weibo), along with a few Canadian special situation plays like SHOP (up over 160% since I bought a year ago) and KXS and some gold stocks. After a good run in these, I I’ve now retreated to the tried and true safety of cash and Mawer Balanced to enjoy the summer! I took the spike in the VIX on Wed. (after a long period of remarkably low volatility) as a wake up call. Not worth seeing where the lunacy south of the border is going or finding out what havoc it could wreak on the portfolio!

    A chart showing inverse correlation between VIX and inverse volatility etf. (Might actually be a good point to go short on HVI if one can assume the markets will go back to a state of paralytic anxiety as the Trump investigation slowly deepens).

  3. DH Says:

    By ‘go short’ I meant a short term play on HVI (which has, by the way, been among the top-performing etfs this year!)

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    BMO starts with earnings on Wed followed by RY, TD and CM on Thrs, BNS on May 30th. As far as picking up BNS at $69 my bet is that you probably would need it to decline that much by Thursday because when earnings come out for the first four they are likely to be quite good. We didn’t quite have a key reversal day yesterday but we had new lows yet closed higher and we bounced off of support at the 200 day MA. I’m scaling in. If you want to buy cheap the next support level for BNS is at 71.99 at which point I would take a full position. It is questionable that it will get that low and sometimes you can completely miss the trade holding out for some bargain price that never happens. They are set to open higher this morning.

  5. DH Says:

    Larry #4: it will be interesting to see how the banks respond to earnings. At around $70, BNS would be a solid buy, but as you say it may not get that low for awhile! I am a bit funny with the Canadian banks – I want to get them as cheap as possible and then going very long. I regret not loading up after 2008 and holding on forever.

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    $CAD – There has been enormous short interest and it looks like we are in some kind of short covering rally. There was important resistance around $0.7366 or so. I had a look at an FX chart and the next major resistance should be around $74.50. I am thinking $CAD ultimately heads lower below $0.72 because of US fed hikes but we go higher first.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the CD bank stock with the major CD banks overlaid. As always draw your own conclusions.

  8. Ana Says:


    I think we might be done here with the IH&S. There is a very small I H&S on on the one day, five minute, with the right shoulder to be completed. I will try to trade that.

  9. Sherri Says:

    Thanks, Ana. I see what you mean. I guess the H&S pattern doesn’t have to be quite so symmetrical as I thought. Time to re-read my chart pattern books. Appreciate you pointing these learning opportunities out. Good luck with the trade! (I slept in as I was exhausted so missed this rebound)

  10. Bernie Says:


    Re: #2 Mawer Balanced Fund
    I find it interesting that you’re parking funds in MAW104 for the summer. I’ve been wanting to construct a seasonality table on the fund. I completed one for another fund I like, Sentry Small/Mid Cap Income Fund (NCE721). It has very high seasonality from Nov thru May averaging 11.33% vs 1.14% in Jun to Oct. The trouble is I don’t know of a site or tool to put the table together other than manually adjusting the dates within the “Growth of $10,000” table in The Mawer fund dates back to 1988, vs 2005 for the Sentry fund, so it will take longer to finish. I should have done this during the winter.

    Jon Vialoux,
    It sure would be nice if a site like Equityclock would add prominent Canadian Mutual funds to their coverage…hint hint 🙂

  11. Sandra Says:

    All the worries we had on Wednesday evaporated! Hehe!!

    I am going to take profits from my buys from the pullback. Long weekend and Trump stories ..don’t trust the market so will not hold. I could be wrong but gut says take profits !

  12. Ana Says:

    #9. Sherri,

    I left my position in over night for the I H &S on $ES. My target was 2385 – 2387 on the I H&S.

    I find it easier to see patterns on $ES.

    I hear you about being tired. Take care of yourself.

  13. Sandra Says:

    Hi Ana, Sherri:
    How are you ladies? Hope Sherri you are doing ok health wise too.
    I bought some shares on Wed. to trade which ran up today so will sell them. I think this volatility is good for making a buck or 2 and sell. I think I will do this until Trump resigns or gets impeached or closes his twitter account or learns to keep his mouth shut to let the markets stabilize. LOl!

  14. Sherri Says:

    #12 Ana
    When you say $ES is that the S&P Futures? I haven’t seen those symbols used anywhere.
    Thanks for letting me know what you’re doing.
    You take care too…thanks 🙂

    #13 Sandra
    I’m okay – just get extra tired once in a while. Hormone/no thyroid issue, I think,
    and maybe just not getting enough sleep!

    Wish I was better at trading short term. Can’t seem to get the timing right.

  15. Sherri Says:

    #12 Ana
    So, are you trading by the target numbers (2385-87) or by the pattern in the HVU as it seems the pattern did not work out but your target numbers did?

    With the markets closed Monday you must be pretty confident in your trade! 🙂 Good luck.

  16. Sherri Says:

    #12 Ana
    My brain is two hours behind my mouth, it seems. I misunderstood what you said about leaving your position in on the I H&S – I gotcha now. Please ignore my previous comments!!

  17. Ana Says:

    #15. Sherri,

    Those numbers ( 2385 – 2387) were $ES numbers, based on the I H&S that I posted the pattern from. The high of the day was exactly 2388, please keep in mind these are $ES (FUTURES).

    I cashed out from that and started to trade

  18. Ana Says:

    #14. Sherri,

    I use the live feed chart for $ES.

    Just like the charts that I post to show the patterns.

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    The U.S.$ has broken its 3 year uptendline from 2014. Price rallied a perfect Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2008 selloff up to the 103 area. Long term major support is the 92 breakout level. The steep selloff in 2017 could see a rebound to the broken uptrendline which is now about 100. But odds favour a test of the 92 or at least a sideways base building pattern between 92 and 100 for some time. This lower dollar fits perfectly with Trump’s desire for a lower U.S.$ to make them more competitive. It also makes the Euro more expensive. The Canadian dollar jumped up more impressively today for a change and for a Friday close was something to notice. It did stop cold at the March lows but regardless was a nice bounce clearing 73.50. Price does need to clear and hold above this 73.50 area and battle its way back again. If in U.S.$ and wanting CD$ simply buy FXC on the NYSE. Not a lot of volume as few want CD$ but it’s a trade that can work if patient.

  20. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the Euro. A classic pattern of breaking out over 108 resistance and rallying to 110 with a pullback to the 108 breakout point and then soaring with breakaway/runnaway gaps to 112. Very overdone on the upside and some consolidation needed to get real but a big bullish breakout and run up regardless. Precious metals are still weak and not showing much on the upside with the GDX:GLD ratio along with the $SILVER:$GOLD ratio both weak. The U.S.$ selloff ‘should have’ seen precious metals rally. Seasonal trends are very bearish for precious metals into a summer low to June/July typically.

  21. Ana Says:

    So here is one option:

    I H & S with target of 2486

  22. Ana Says:

    So here is another option:

    H & S with target of 2177

  23. Ana Says:

    #16. Sherri,

    Sorry, I did not refresh my screen to read your message prior to sending you #17.

  24. Ron/BC Says:

    Both those sites don’t show up. Never did know what you were doing actually. I used to trade the ES with 5 minute charts using Qcharts live charts that were not delayed. Expensive charting service that cost around $200 per month but I could drag a chart backwards after the close for months and slowly drag it forward to see how various indicators signaled buys and sells. Loved the service but not the price. Gave it up man years ago but do miss them. Don’t know where you are getting live futures charts now that are not delayed.

  25. DH Says:

    Bernie #10,

    Sorry to not get back to you sooner. You raise a good point about the seasonality of mutual funds. It is something that needs more clarity. I am parking $ ‘mostly’ in Mawer Balanced (with a bit of Mawer Global Small cap for spice, and Mawer Tax-Effective Balanced for non-registered accounts) as a way to not be completely out of markets during summer while I am away from my computer for prolonged periods. (Heading to Ladakh for research trip soon). As a fund of funds, the global and sector diversification in MAW104 mitigates risk while long-term annualized returns have been around 8% over past 20 yrs. I like the way it has held up when TSX is going down. No big expectations for the summer anyhow. The past year has been rewarding enough.

  26. DH Says:

    Wish I’d followed my own hunch and taken a short position on HVI (reverse volatility etf) which was up 7% intraday.

  27. DH Says:

    Excerpt from John Murphy’s Market Message Fri, May 19 2017 3:38 PM ET:

    “S&P 500 REGAINS 50-DAY AVERAGE, BUT ON LIGHTER VOLUME … Chart 7 shows the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) trying to end the week back above its 50-day average. The candlevolume bars, however, still show some cause for concern. Candlevolume bars are adjusted for volume. The heavier the day’s volume, the wider the box. And it shows how ominous Wednesday’s price really looked when adjusted for volume (and makes Friday’s rebound look less impressive). Wednesday’s overhead price gap may also produce some overhead resistance. A couple of key market groups may hold the key to market direction. Chart 8 shows the Financial SPDR (XLF) rebounding modestly off potential chart support along its 2017 lows. Chart 9 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap iShares (IWM) trading modestly higher as well. Both remain below their 50-day averages, however, and are attracting light Friday trading. Those two groups may help determine if the market is able to shrug off Wednesday’s heavy selling and regain its composure.”

  28. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a long term chart to give perspective of the CD$ and $WTIC along with the CD$ relative to the U.S.$.

  29. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is another long term chart to give perspective of $GOLD and $Gold Stocks along with the $Silver to $Gold ratio relationship. Still all weak. $GOLD needs to clear $1300 just for starters to suggest a reversal in the major trend. Historically $GOLD stocks and $Silver tend to lead the price of $Gold so should be watched for a change in trend first.

  30. JP/BC Says:

    Ron/BC: If you had to guess where the CD$ will be against the US$ in six months what would you say? I won’t hold you to it !

  31. Ana Says:

    #24. Does this chart show up from my post on the 18th?

    Ana Says:
    May 18th, 2017 at 2:27 pm
    #2. Sherri,
    Glad to be of some help. This is how I day trade.
    Do you see the I H &S on the $SPX $ES today?

  32. Ana Says:

    #31. Ron/BC

    Sorry, I forgot to address that post to you.

    I am simply trading and on the futures chart of $SPX.

  33. Ron/BC Says:

    OK,thanks. Don’t know why you’d be using a futures chart with an ETF on the $TSX. I guess the futures chart you get is free and perhaps not delayed. I can’t believe people are expected to trade or even invest with delayed charts. I just use Stockcharts Extra with real time data for CD and U.S. charts. Don’t often look at 5 minute charts anymore though. The trading system I was trained on for 5 minute charts was with ES futures. It only went long when the 21ema was above the 50ema and only short when the 21ema was below the 50ema. The instructor never used chart patterns which is what I originally learned T/A on mainly. Amazing what he missed at times as they can be very predictive. Anyways I’ll look at a 5 minute chart with and and see what I see………I know Stockcharts doesn’t allow any member to post intraday charts anywhere and will simply substitute a Dow chart when trying to post an intraday chart. Only another member can see intraday charts.

  34. Ron/BC Says:

    Yes I see your chart in #31……

  35. Ron/BC Says:

    What is critically important is for the CD$ to cross above 78 cents. That was the 2009 recession low bottom that failed to hold as support in 2015 and broke down then with the price of Crude.Price poked its nose above that level last year but couldn’t hold above it. Notice that is also its multi year downtrendline as well so a cross above 78 that even holds and tracks sideways will suggest a reversal in trend. But with our B.O.C. governor Stephen Poloz being the former head of Export Canada he is an expert in keeping our currency low relative to the U.S.$ especially as Canada exports 76% of its total world wide exports to the U.S. BUTTTTTTTTTTTTT now with Trump publicly stating the U.S.$ is too high and wants it lower this could change as he wants to crank up the U.S.manufacturing industries and export heavily once again. So it’s a battle between CD and the U.S. regulators to determine which currency gains on the other. All I know is as long as the CD$ is below 78 it’s bearish. On the short term $CDW did reclear 73.50 Friday with some conviction and if it holds could run to 76. The price of Crude will have a lot to do with the CD$ price. One can stay in U.S.$ and buy FXC on the NYSE to catch a CD$ rally but there is low volume on it.

  36. Ron/BC Says:

    A major factor ahead for the CD$ is the NAFTA agreement that is not likely to be as positive for Canada when re-written by the Trump led Republicans. And being the U.S.buys most of what Canada exports I don’t think it will help the value of the CD$. But I prefer to let the charts tell the tale as they are always right………..with fundamentals there are always too many variables to accurately quantify. One small change can and does have major consequences and there are always those off the wall ‘details’ to throw logic out the window.

  37. Aldoman Says:

    the free future charts can be found at;


  38. Ron/BC Says:

    The ETF has reached a price point around $5 that should see it revised back to a higher value like what tends to happen with those leveraged ETFs.

  39. JP/BC Says:

    Ron/BC: Thanks. You know the expression “buy the rumour and sell the news”. Some the Trump affect may be baked into the lower price of the loonie already. That would explain why it is falling against the US$ while the Euro is rising. I have learned to discount much of what a market “should do”. Like you say, the charts will tell the story.

  40. Ron/BC Says:

    Also keep in mind the CD$ has extremely high short positions on it by speculators and they always get blown away at extremes. I suspect the CD$ rally Friday was short covering but this coming week should tell the tale. When the CD$ starts to rally these highly leveraged speculators have no choice but to cover their shorts and the big boys with deep pockets will chase them right out of their short positions and enjoy the ride up to boot. Nothing to do with fundamentals………………but there is always a story to be told for those that need one.

  41. JP/BC Says:

    Ron/BC: I came across this futures site for the CD$: . Are you familiar with futures that forecast this far ahead (June 2019)? I wonder how accurate they are.

  42. NeilAB Says:

    Been a busy w /e so haven’t had as much time as I’d hoped to consider your well reasoned responses to my ill formed questions.
    But, here goes a more off the cuff than I would like rejoinder.
    Re: “I’m too old for DGI.”, and your response that one is never too old. Consider, I have one year left to live. I have, say 10000 cash. I for whatever reason want to maximize the estate the circling vultures will get. Assuming, as we have to here, all factors are equal, would I buy a growth stock with a 10% upside or a DGI stock .with a similar 10% dividend growth rate. The math suggests to me the former. 10k x 10% = $1000. The DGI stock, assuming an original 5% divi, would grow that by 10% which equals $550. (500 on the original 10000 outlay, plus $50 on the increase.) and recall, the increase would probably take effect after my death – but let’s be generous.
    Now, you may argue that the DGI stock, may also appreciate in capital. And that could happen, however, recall we are here discussing simply investing on the basis of divi growth.
    So, we are now on a slippery slope. I chose a one year scenario. Longer term, with divi growth compounding, and growth stock going the way of so many, the divi growth approach becomes more compelling. But, when does that occur? 3 years, 5 years? So, when am too old? No idea where the inflection point is but I fear it may well be beyond my years.

    The more I think about it, it seems to me, the DGI investment thesis is perhaps not ground, as I thought, on the actual compounding that occurs with the dividend, but rather on the assumption that companies that grow their dividend are good companies to invest in because they are confident enough in their future. But, if that is the case, DGIng is just investing based on one of many metrics of what some determine a ‘good’ company to invest in. Ie. The magic is not in the compounding, but in the metric.

    BTW, I think I was totally wrongheaded on the ‘disincentive to buy more thing’. Sorry for that. The disincentive, it seems to me, comes in the selling. For a somewhat painful personal example, I bought IPL when it bottomed (24ish). Yield then was like 7% with an increase coming. YTD it is down 9% (though still above my purchase price) and still nice divi coming in every month.
    Problem I find is that the divi yield tends to make me not want to sell a stock which I otherwise would have. Divs, it seems to me, make you hold on to losers.
    I know you’re not keen on YOI, as a factor. Seems to me a div. Growth guy would be. If you get a chance, please advise as to why. I think that would be most interesting and may well alleviate some of my concerns.
    Sorry to Bernie and all who have bothered to read for the length of this. I’ve been building IKEA kitchen cabinets all day, I’m totally frazzled.

  43. Ron/BC Says:

    Yes they trade that far out. Those futures are especially useful for companies and people that need to know what each currency will be worth basically a year or so out as the currency’s value will determine their strategy in selling or buying products or services in a currency other than their own.

  44. Ron/BC Says:

    Another chart that give some perspective is Dividend stocks and their ETFs. Here is a chart with some well known ones on the $TSX. Note the “pullback” from September 2016 through February 2016, or about one and a half years. Every group gets its turn getting trashed.

  45. Sherri Says:

    #21,22,31 Ana
    Yes, thank you for the charts. I do see the patterns. It’s been helpful – just have
    to get my timing right and have my head in the game while I’m trading and not get distracted!

    Thank you – look forward to Tuesday!

  46. Ana Says:

    #33. Ron/BC

    I use the $SPX Futures for trading &, $WTIC Futures for trading & and $NATGAS Futures for trading & I can see patterns on the Futures easier.

    Just like in my post #31, to catch the I H &S. I also check $VIX if I am trading & has a live feed for free and that is why I use it. I also can copy the link, which usually works.

    I do trade the 5 & 15 minute, often to churn out my goal for the day.

    But I do spend time looking for larger patterns. I am just repeating what has worked and trying to refine it.


    I do not have luxury of “collecting money” so I am very pragmatic about my approach to

  47. Ana Says:

    #45. Sherri,

    I am glad that you can see the charts in #21 & #22. I wonder why Ron/BC can not see them?

    Will do some work tomorrow night on a shorter time frame to see what might happen on Tuesday.

    Nice to have the entire day off tomorrow!

  48. Ron/BC Says:

    At home on my desk top computer I can see your charts on #21,#22 Daily charts & #31 five minute chart. Didn’t see them earlier on my laptop. Don’t know what all the Ns stand for.

  49. Ana Says:


    Those Ns stand for news clips. I do not usually post my links from the “interactive chart” that has the 5 hour chart on it. I could not find a link to the interactive chart so I posted the technical chart.

    Here is the link for the interactive chart:

  50. Ana Says:


    Here is the link for the USD CAD interactive chart:

  51. Ana Says:


    You can draw lines with the features on the side of the chart.

    You can use different times with the time frames at the top of the chart.

    You can use different indicators that are listed under “indicators” at the top of the chart.

    You can use different price types that are listed at the top of the chart to change from candlesticks.

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