Tech Talk for Thursday June 8th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday June 8th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 2 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was 240,000 versus upwardly revised 255,000 last week. Actual was 245,000

The Euro weakened slightly after the European Central Bank maintained its current lending rate.

JM Smucker (SJM $130.88) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings and revenues.

Valeant gained $0.45 to $12.62 after selling its iNova Pharmaceutical unit for $930 million.

Nvidia added $5.08 to $154.08 after UBS raised its target price to $168 from $148.

Sherwin Williams (SHW $340.26) is expected to open higher after Goldman Sachs added the stock to its Conviction Buy list.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/06/07/stock-market-outlook-for-june-8-2017/

Note seasonality charts on Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply and Crude Oil.

StockTwit’s Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Price of Gold and T-Bonds break out to highs of the year amidst uncertainties

Corn ETN $CORN moved above $19.35 establishing an intermediate uptrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quietly mixed. Breakouts: $CNC $AMD. Breakdowns: $JCI $IRM.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included WRK, MHK, CME and ALK. Breakdowns included CMG, ETN, EOG, HES, OMC JNPR, MNK and TAP.

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Chipotle $CMG moved below $465.99 completing a double top pattern.

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Eaton Corp $ETN moved below $75.11 completing a double top pattern.

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More U.S. energy stocks break to new lows on lower oil prices: $EOG $HES

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Despite abrupt increase in crude oil inventories, days of supply remain unchanged at 29.7. $USO #OIL

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Uranium ETF $URA moved below $12.47 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Telus $T.CA moved below $44.92 completing a double top pattern.

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Inter Pipeline $IPL.CA moved below $26.06 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 7th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 7th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 7th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Keith Richards’ Blog

Gold and Silver ready for a Seasonal pop? Following is the link:

http://www.valuetrend.ca/gold-silver-ready-seasonal-pop/

Note enclosed seasonality charts.

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 1.20 to 63.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 4.70 to 41.39 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and in a downtrend.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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15 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday June 8th 2017”

  1. Dave/AB Says:

    Hi Bernie

    Yesterday you comment on Alaris

    “Good informative article on Alaris Royalty (AD.TO)
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4079620-alaris-royalty-get-paid-8-percent-wait

    do you have a position or is this on your watch list? I have it on my watch list as It has not broken its downtrend line yet.
    I bought Diversified Royalty Corp a year ago when it broke above its downtrend line.It has done ok.

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    BNS and TD good strength particularly on BNS. CM is looking very interesting as a value stock. The past three weeks show continuing bottoming action on the Canadian banks. Don V, however, in his BNN appearance did not recommend buying the banks due to poor seasonality and predicts opportunity to buy at lower levels between now and October.

  3. Paula Says:

    There have been some interesting (to me) interviews on BNN the last few day. I don’t usually bother listening to economist but David Rosenberg is an exception plus when he speaks, the market listens. Here is David Rosenberg talking about the Canadian economy/housing market, trade/NAFTA, the Canadian $ and the huge short interest…
    Thought this might be of interest to some on this board:

    http://www.bnn.ca/video/rosenberg-4-myths-about-canada-s-economy-debunked~1140277

  4. Paula Says:

    Here is Jean-Francois Tardif talking about the risks of ETFs and other topics…

    http://www.bnn.ca/video/how-etfs-raise-risk-levels-in-the-equity-market~1141902

  5. Sherri Says:

    Interesting article on Commodity bear pattern setups. Thoughts, anyone?

    http://moneytalks.net/article-and-commentary/todays-best-money-making-ideas/energy/19864–the-great-commodity-bear–is-it-finally-over-.html

  6. rick Says:

    Paula ,

    1. JF Tardiff is making money by charging management fees .
    2. If investors are choosing ETFs instead of his funds he will loose money = he will not be happy
    3. of course he has to blame the opposition = ETFs
    4. read what other dividends investors think about him and why

    http://www.myfirst50000.com/2016/06/saying-goodbye-to-jean-francois-tardif.html

  7. Paula Says:

    I think this video is from April: Jerome Hass was shorting Home Capital. I saw him interviewed again this morning and he is still short. I have no position in this stock (and never have) but there is so much discussion around it that it is hard to ignore. Ron B/C was asking about the fundamentals around it yesterday but with regard to investing in the GIC’s offered by their subsidiary Oaken Financial. I expect that the CDIC coverage of $100,000 applies. I believe others have talked about this issue time ago…
    Sorry, I can’t seem to find a link to today’s interview. Maybe it will be available later…

    http://www.bnn.ca/video/home-capital-short-seller-warns-on-the-whole-sector~1109205

  8. Paula Says:

    Rick, thanks for the post and link. Of course, people usually have opinions which match their own best interest. I have been hearing a lot on this topic lately. I believe there is a statistic that there are now more ETFs than stocks:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-12/there-are-now-more-indexes-than-stocks

  9. Bernie Says:

    Dave/AB,

    Re: #1 AD.TO
    I have full positions in all my accounts so its my largest holding. First purchased in 2011 (Non-registered), 2012 (RRSP) & 2013 (TFSA). I’m not looking to add more but have trimmed my position in my RRSP to get it back to equal weighting by income per my DGI strategy. They haven’t raised their dividend since mid 2015 but their long dividend increase streak remains intact because its based on year over year. The management is sound but public sentiment has fallen off due to some soft quarters. I have nice capital gains on the stock and the income has been great. I plan to hold unless they do decide to cut the distribution.

  10. Paula Says:

    Sherri, thanks for the link. It seems to me that long term there is a lot more downside before a bottom is reached. That is what I get from a brief look at those charts. Maybe an idea to sell any remaining holdings in the sector on any rally, which we may be getting now. If XME can clear this resistance area ~ 30, maybe it can get to the next area of resistance ~ 31.50 – 32.25. Here is my adaptation of one of Arthur Hill’s charts (Stockcharts):

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XME&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59746994840&a=504058684

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    The most diversified commodity Index I have ever seen is the Bloomberg Commodity Index which is very broad based in commodities unlike many that are petroleum based. This long term and shorter term charts show the bear is still intact. I have overlaid the Canadian dollar $CDW in gray and reading your article also overlaid the TIP:TLT ratio as well. The shorter term 2nd chart shows a sideways channel for a year now that will either breakout or breakdown at some point which will be the trigger. As always draw your own conclusions. What is aggregating me for awhile now is the Canadian dollar breaking back above 73.50 and above 74 and continuing to hold above that level despite Oil falling out of bed. I do like to catch those currency turns but am not convinced yet on a change. The CD$ also is a good reflection of inflation/deflation.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BCOM&p=D&yr=17&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81299604529&a=497961695

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BCOM&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95807986460&a=500206904

  12. Bernie Says:

    Top Canadian Dividend ETFs – Why we don’t own them
    http://www.tawcan.com/top-canadian-dividend-etfs-dont/

  13. Kam Says:

    Hi folks

    UK elections,

    Looking what happened last time (brexit) I sold my XIV position AH for about 50 -70cents less than I could have in regular hours but I rather stay on side than in. Bought some VXX just in case however market reaction might not be much tomorrow Even if MAY gets majority or not. I am doing what suppose to do– preserve capital and skin another cat tomorrow.
    Later

  14. rick Says:

    Bernie , regarding those 2 investors from http://www.tawcan.com

    Their question is : why we don’t own dividend ETFs ?
    The correct answer should be : because we are better than any of these ETFs
    They should say : our total return in last 5 years is 120 % and the best ETF total return is only 100 % ( for example )
    But they did not said that . Why ?
    If their total return is only 80 % than their explanations for “why we don’t own dividend ETFs ” has 0 value . Actually has a minus 20 % value .

    The final question for them should be : your results are better or not than these ETFs ?without an answer their explanation is just talking ….

  15. Bernie Says:

    rick,

    Re: #14
    The author is clearly a dividend growth investor so he is focused on income. I imagine he also keeps tabs on how he is doing total performance wise but he didn’t state it hear.

    If you want to focus on total return why do you use 5 years for a term? Where do you draw the line to say one is “better than the other”? If you compare a dividend ETF to a dividend stock portfolio neither one is going to outperform 100% of the time. Lets say the dividend ETF outperforms over 2 year and 5 year terms but the dividend stock portfolio outperforms over 1, 3, 4 and 6 year terms. Do you then say the stock portfolio is better?

    The author seems quite young. IMO he should focus more on capital returns during the accumulation stage then refocus to income/income growth when he nears the distribution stage, ie; retirement. That said, its my opinion. He chooses differently. You can’t fault one who invests with the strategy they’re most comfortable with.

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