Tech Talk for Monday June 12th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday June 12th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 4 points in pre-opening trade. The NASDAQ Composite dropped another 60 points.

Apple slipped $2.93 to $146.05 after Mizuho Securities downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.

General Electric added $1.00 to $28.90 after the company announced its choice of a new Chief Executive Officer.

According to Deutsche Bank’s strategist, “the next move of 5% is more likely down than up”. Accordingly, the Bank recommended lowering preferred equity exposure in investment portfolios to 60% from 70%.

Amazon.com dropped $10.31 to $968.06 despite an increase in target price to $1200 from 1050 by Piper Jaffray.

Adobe dropped $3.90 to $134.15 after Pivotel Research downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold.

EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/06/09/stock-market-outlook-for-june-12-2017/

Note seasonality charts on the NASDAQ Composite Index, U.S. Financial Sector, Technology Sector, British Pound, Wholesale Inventories, Wholesale Sales and Amgen.

The Bottom Line

The natural time for start of a correction between June 15th and October 15 by most world equity markets is about to be reached at a time when equity markets are intermediate overbought and showing early momentum signs of rolling over. Exceptions exist (e.g. China and related equities)

 

Earnings News This Week

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Economic News This Week

May Producer Prices are to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday. Excluding food and energy, May Producer Prices are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.5% in April.

May Consumer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to be unchanged versus a gain of 0.2% in April. Excluding food and energy, May Consumer Prices are expected to increase 0.2% versus an increase of 0.1% in April

May Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in April. Excluding auto sales, May Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in April.

April Business Inventories are to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to drop 0.1% versus a gain of 0.2% in March.

FOMC meeting results to be released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday are expected to see a 0.25% increase in the Fed Fund rate to 1.00%-1.25%.

Initial jobless claims are to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to dip to 242,000 from 245,000 last week

June Empire State Manufacturing Index is to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 5.0 from -1.0 in May.

June Philly Fed Index is to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to dip to 27.0 from 38.8 in May.

May Industrial Production to be released at 9:15 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 1.0% in April. May Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 76.8% from 76.7% in April.

May Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 1.22 million units from 1.172 million units in April.

June Michigan Sentiment Index is to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to remain unchanged from May at 97.1.

 

Observations

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks was mixed last week: Thirty one stocks broke intermediate resistance and 21 stocks broke intermediate support. Notable on the list breaking intermediate resistance were Financials and Materials stocks. Notable on the list breaking intermediate support were Consumer Discretionary stocks. Number of stocks in an uptrend increased to 280 from 267, number of stocks in a neutral trend dropped to 47 from 51 and number of stocks in a downtrend dropped to 173 from 182. The Up/Down ratio increased last week to (280/173=) 1.62 from 1.47.

U.S. economic news this week is expected to be quietly bearish implying a slight slowdown relative to the previous month. Focus this week is on news following the FOMC meeting. Overwhelming consensus is that the Fed will increase the Fed Fund rate by 0.25%. Traders are watching closely for guidance on futures increases this year.

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks by short term technical indicators (momentum, above /below 20 day moving average) remained positive last week for most equity markets and sectors. Indicators generally are overbought, but have yet to show signs of rolling over. The exception was the Technology sector that recorded a significant drop in momentum on Friday. The trigger was a breakdown by Apple and its formation of a double top pattern.

Intermediate technical indicators (Percent trading above 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index generally moved higher last week to more overbought levels. Some have rolled over.

The outlook for S&P 500 companies remains promising. Earnings and sales estimates were virtually unchanged last week as the period of corporate silence prior to second quarter reports was entered. According to FactSet, second quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to increase 6.6% while sales are expected to increase 4.9%. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 7.5% and sales are expected to 5.2%. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.4% and sales are expected to 5.2%. For 2017, earnings are expected to increase 9.9% and sales are expected to increase 5.4%.

Seasonal Influences by North American equity markets tend to be mixed in the month of June. Long term returns since 1950 indicate an average return per period by the TSX Composite and S&P 500 Index near zero. On average during the past 20 periods, the TSX Composite Index has reached a seasonal peak on or about June 9th and a second peak in mid-July. Frequently, the S&P 500 Index has reached a peak near June 15th with a second peak in mid-July. Momentum spikes frequently occur in the June /mid-October period. Spike by the VIX Index four weeks ago proved to be a false alarm. However, short term overbought conditions and unsettling political conditions continue to suggest watchful waiting. If an upside surprise occurs in North American equity indices, it likely will happen late in June/early July coinciding with the seasonal Independence Day trade.

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U.S. equity markets have a history of moving lower from mid-June to mid-October in Presidential cycle years after a two term President has been replaced (as indicated this year). See red line in the chart below.

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Friday is Quadruple Witching Day. Expect higher than average volume and higher volatility.

 

Ratings on Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 9th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Calculating Technical Scores

 

Technical scores are calculated as follows:

 

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          Higher highs and higher lows

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          Not up or down

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          Lower highs and lower lows

 

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

 

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

 

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

 

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

 

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower.

 

The S&P 500 Index slipped 7.31 points (0.30%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 moving average. Short term momentum indicators began to trend down on Friday.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (also known as the S&P 500 Momentum barometer) increased last week to 69.80 from 67.40. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average slipped last week to 72.80 from 73.60. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week to 69.60 from 69.20 and moved above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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Bullish Percent Index for TSX stocks dropped last week to 68.40 from 70.00. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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The TSX Composite Index added 30.46 points (0.20%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down (Score: -2. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative (Score: -2). The Index moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday (Score: 1). Short term momentum indicators are trending up (Score: 1). Technical score increased last week to -2 from -6.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (Also known as the TSX Momentum Barometer) increased last week to 45.71 from 45.53. Percent remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average slipped last week to 54.69 from 54.88. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 65.68 points (0.31%) last week to close at an all-time high. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from negative on Friday. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 2.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial stocks increased last week to 80.00 from 76.67 and moved above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week to 61.10 from 59.69 and moved above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 97.88 points (1.55%) last week with the entire drop occurring in the second half of trading on Friday. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed on Friday to Neutral from Positive. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators rolled over on Friday. Technical score dropped last week to 2 from 6.

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The Russell 2000 Index gained 16.31 points (1.16%) last week. Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on Friday on a move above 1,425.70. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4.

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Dow Jones Transportation Average slipped 3.84 points (0.04%) last week. Intermediate trend remained Neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Positive. The Average remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 4.

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The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index dropped 105.60 points (1.81%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to -6 from -4.

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The Nikkei Average dropped 164.02 points (0.81%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Neutral. The Average remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 4

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Europe iShares dropped $0.75 (1.63%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Positive. Units dropped below their 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over. Technical score dropped last week to -2 from 4.

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The Shanghai Composite Index gained 52.86 points (1.70%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Neutral. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from 0.

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Emerging Markets iShares slipped $0.15 (0.36%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. Units remained above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical scored dropped last week to 2 from 6.

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Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index added 0.23 (0.24%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold and showing early signs of bottoming.

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The Euro dropped 0.87 (0.77%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Euro remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over.

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The Canadian Dollar added US 0.09 cents (0.15%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Canuck Buck remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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The Japanese Yen added 0.12 (0.13%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Yen remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are rolling over.

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The British Pound dropped 1.63 (1.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Pound remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Commodities and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 9th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

The CRB Index dropped 1.20 points (1.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Gasoline dropped $0.15 per gallon (4.76%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Negative. Gas remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained at -6.

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Crude Oil dropped $1.83 per barrel (3.84%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Crude remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -6.

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Natural Gas added $0.04 (1.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. “Natty” remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -4.

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The S&P Energy Index added 9.82 points (2.06%) last week with the entire gain recorded on Friday. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Negative. The Index remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have just turned up. Technical score improved last week to -4 from -6.

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The Philadelphia Oil Services Index slipped 0.16 points (0.12%) last week. Intermediate trend remained down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have just turned up. Technical score increased last week to -4 from -6.

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Gold dropped $8.70 per ounce (0.68%) last week. Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move above $1297.40. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. Gold remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to 2 from 6.

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Silver dropped $0.30 per ounce (1.71%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Silver remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over. Technical score dropped last week to 2 from 4.

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The AMEX Gold Bug Index gained 4.79 points (2.50%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have just rolled over. Technical score last week increased to -2 from -4.

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Platinum dropped $13.10 per ounce (1.37%) last week. Trend remains down. Relative strength remains Neutral. PLAT remains below its 20 day MA. Momentum trending down.

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Palladium gained $22.15 per ounce (2.66%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Positive. PALL remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remains at 6.

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Copper gained 7.4 cents per lb (2.87%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive. Copper moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -2.

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BMO Base Metals ETF gained $0.44 (4.69%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to Up from Down on a move above $9.69. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. Units moved above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from -6.

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Lumber gained $10.80 (3.05%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Relative strength remains Negative. Moved above its 20 day MA. Momentum turned up.

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The Grain ETN gained $1.11 (4.08%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Units moved above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased to 2.

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The Agriculture ETF gained $0.39 (0.78%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Positive. Units remained above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Interest Rates

Yield on 10 Year Treasuries increased 4 basis points (1.85%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Yield remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up.

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Conversely, price of the long term Treasury Bond slipped $1.22 (0.98%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average.

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Volatility

The VIX Index added 0.61 (9.33%) last week after briefly touching a 24 year low on Friday. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday.

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Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 9th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

StockTwits Released on Friday

Natural gas at risk of completing a Head & Shoulders top coming into period of seasonal weakness. See http://www.equityclock.com/2017/06/08/stock-market-outlook-for-june-9-2017/

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quietly bullish. Breakouts: $FCX $MYL. No breakdowns.

Editor’s note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included FITB, SCHW, USB, DD, EMN, AFL, MTB, JEC, EMR, BRK.B, IBM, LYB,TROW, UA. Breakdowns included AAPL, DXC and CTXS

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Southern Copper $SCCO, world’s largest copper producer moved above $36.51 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Hudson’s Bay Company $HBC.CA moved below $9.40 and $8.93 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Home Capital Group $HCG.CA moved above $11.06 establishing an intermediate uptrend.

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FT Biotech ETF $FBT moved above $109.00 to an 18 month high extending an intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season!

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Wholesale sales down 9.3% in April, over 3 times the historical average decline.

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Fertilizer stocks higher on rumored Uraikali/Belarus talks. Double bottom patterns by $AGU.CA $POT.CA $MOS also strong.

Seasonal influences positive for $POT and $AGU from late June to early September.

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Apple $AAPL, a Dow Jones Industrial stock completed a double top pattern on a move below $149.71

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Cdn. Pacific $CP.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $205.90 completing a double top pattern.

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TMX Group $X.CA moved below $69.47 developing an intermediate downtrend.

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Accountability Report

Loblaw (L.TO $76.01) originally was supported as a seasonal trade with StockTwits and Tech Talk comments on April 24th at $73.68. Its period of seasonal strength ends in mid-June. Technical parameters have deteriorated recently: Although trend remains up, strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index has turned Negative, short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and the stock dropped below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Accordingly, the stock no longer is supported as a seasonal trade.

Metro (MRU.TO $44.38) originally was supported as a seasonal trade with StockTwits and Tech Talk comments at $40.28 on March 14th. Although seasonal influences remain positive until mid-July, technical weakness suggests truncating the trade. On Friday, the stock broke support at $44.74 to establish an intermediate downtrend. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite has turned negative. The stock recently dropped below its 20 day moving average. Its short term momentum indicators are trending down. Accordingly, the stock no longer is supported as a seasonal trade.

Software iShares (IGV $136.28) originally were supported as a seasonal trade with StockTwits and Tech Talk comments at $127.36 on April 19th. Although seasonal influences remain positive until mid-July, technical weakness suggests truncating the traded. On Friday, the stock started to underperform the S&P 500 Index, its momentum indicators turned negative and the stock broke below its 20 day moving average. Accordingly, the stock no longer is supported as a seasonal trade.

 

WALL STREET RAW RADIO – JUNE 10, 2017 -  WITH HOST, MARK LEIBOVIT – STARRING DON VIALOUX, HENRY WEINGARTEN, HARRY BOXER, SINCLAIR NOE, CRAIG SMITH AND CHRIS KIMBLE.   http://tinyurl.com/y8hfwqch

 

Here is a summary of Don Vialoux’s comments:

 

Equities in China have come alive during the past four weeks. Strength is related to record export data reported last week. China large cap iShares (FXI) were up 8.2% during the period.

Strength in China is pouring into related North American equities, most notably into metals and mining stocks. Notably stronger with short term breakouts on Thursday included iShares Metals and Mining ETF (XME) in the U.S. and BMO Base Metal ETF (ZMT) in Canada.

The sector is lining up for an interesting seasonal trade. Seasonal influences for Metals and Mining stocks are positive from early June to the end of July.

 

June 14th could be an important date for U.S. equity markets:

 

· The Federal Reserve is expected to increase its Fed Fund rate by 0.25% to 1.00%-1.25%. Watch for guidance on future increases

 

· On average during the past 20 years, U.S. equity markets have reached a seasonal peak either on June 15th or July 15th

· June 14th is President Trump’s birthday. According to Henry Weingarten, his birthday could have astrologic significance that could influence equity markets

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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20 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday June 12th 2017”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Trade reversal out of tech and into financials continues.

  2. Mick/NV Says:

    Aapl dropped below s1 pivot point support this morning, tried to buy but price took off after I put in my bid, always seem to be a bit late. Regardless, stock is still up 25% ytd, ahead of both the s&p and Nasdaq, already own it, would have been nice to add. Might drop further, not quite oversold.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p22049006420&a=382463347

  3. roy Says:

    Hello Mick/NV
    what are your thoughts on IAC – Interactive. Has had a tremendous move in the last year?

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    The big CD banks all jumped up this morning and bumped their broken uptrendlines and sold off sharply. They’re presently trading at their lows of the day. Lots of work ahead for them to regain their uptrends again.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07724927381&a=518016426

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p77380798088&a=441076408

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    The CD bank ETF:ZEB.to bumped its 4 month downtrendline from February and pulled back. Resistance levels need to be cleared and held to suggest an uptrend has resumed. Meanwhile the battle continues. The XIU.to has been in a one dollar trading range since December 2016 and is just trading sideways. It also pulled back today so far as Financials are a big part of this ETF.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZEB.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p77151989838&a=525411284

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIU.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p48090547646&a=514385735

  6. Sherri Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks for the bank charts. I don’t own any but would like to buy a couple once they’ve finished their correction! If you have time, could you do a chart for AQN.TO (Algonquin)?
    I sold recently as I thought it had gone a bit parabolic – hoping to buy back in after a pullback but that’s always a risky game with this one. Thank you for your time.

  7. Mick/NV Says:

    Roy

    This is another one of those stocks that I never heard of until mentioned here. Nice looking chart, concern would be that gap at around $83 or so, gaps tend to close. It did cut it’s dividend in 2015 but that does not appear to have hurt it’s performance.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IAC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p87512306649&a=529030443

    Over the past 5 years stock is up around 138%, ahead of all indices. For myself, with no dividend and that gap I am seeing, would not be buying, someone willing to take some risk, a drop below the main pivot point might be a good entry point.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IAC&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14918475946

  8. Larry/ON Says:

    Re 4.RON/BC – I have to agree with you and your assessment of more work to be done on Cdn banks. The bellweather for financials XLF hit a new high just below significant resistance at 24.53 and reversed. I did some profit taking. $CAD looks interesting.

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    Re:AQN.to.
    Nice steady uptrend unlike a lot of erratic stocks today. The uptrendline is at about $13.80 but the last 3 days have seen resistance at $14 since topping out and pulling back. Price seems to like to trade in tight bands and then breakout and run. A buy at $13.80 with a stop below the uptrendline at your comfort level would work. Always keep in mind any stock or ETF that breaks an uptrendline tends to trade sideways or lower for some time so leave them alone until they form a bullish chart pattern after consolidation. So far this chart is bullish and steady as a rock. Also clearing AND holding above $14 would suggest a run to the previous high. I’ve got 3 oscillators on the chart as the RSI often doesn’t give a buy signal below/above the 30 line when price is choppy. MACD and Stochastics tend to give those signals but often too many of them. So I put on all 3. The lower RSI 21 shows price very overbought and pulling back. So while the stock is in a bullish uptrend and close to support I’d just be sure price stayed above the uptrendline if buying and all should be well. Volume seems to be good as well. Seems like a good solid sensible choice looking at a one year chart. .BUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT look at the 2nd “long term” chart and like most stocks now see the very steep uptrendline which tends to be unsustainable historically. A break of the present steep uptrendline would not be the end of the world and would signal lower to sideways prices. But if I was looking to buy this for the long term I’d prefer to buy it at the $11.50 to $12 level.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AQN.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86000255804&a=518199055

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AQN.TO&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94543626837&a=529045370

  10. Sherri Says:

    #9 Ron/BC
    Thank you so much Ron! Sound advice. Did buy it last time it touched support on the 3 year chart around 10.50 but decided to sell it and try to buy back after it blows off some steam. May end up buying back in if it holds and doesn’t break down…thanks again.

  11. Bernie Says:

    Do you want safe dividend paying stocks with some potential upside? According to Norm Rothery the Safer Dogs of the TSX stocks are a good value right now.
    http://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing/safer-dogs-of-the-tsx

  12. Mick/NV Says:

    Speaking of cdn banks, td.to is a good example of a stock that closed above the r1 pivot point resistance on Friday but that new support level has not held up today. Own this one and if drops to around $62 or below would add, would not add at this level. Price is essentially flat for the year including dividends, well below its peers ry.to and bns.to.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p55062134466&a=402003323

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&st=2017-01-01&en=today&id=p21221017864

  13. roy Says:

    Thanks Mick/NV -Your response is much appreciated

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    Good for you. Nothing wrong with banking profits along the way and exiting on these stretches higher and waiting until it goes on sale again. One is more objective when flat.

  15. Ron/BC Says:

    The Canadian dollar jumped up sharply gaining .79 to over 75 cents today. The chart was showing bullish technicals short term when it re-cleared the 73.50 breakdown point plus cleared and held above 74. There is always some group that knows what’s going on and the charts reflect their foot prints. And no,I didn’t get in on the jump. Still in a long term downtrend with lots of work to do in order to be in an uptrend again but could increase its range and start some serious short covering. Apparently there is some talk about the B.O.C. could be considering raising rates with the strong economic numbers. Would love to see rates soar especially deposit rates………….

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07415422325&a=522673478

  16. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Just a thought for you…
    Instead of collecting ultra low interest on your cash why not put some of your funds into FC.TO and collect monthly distributions which are always close to 7% yield. The company is well run and has paid the same interest distribution every month since late 1999. There is very low volatility in the stock, beta is currently 0.000938 which is more than 100x less volatile than SPY. With your technical skills I’m sure you could even squeeze out some capital gains along the way. Here is a long term weekly chart (free version):
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FC.TO&p=W&st=1999-09-01&en=(today)&id=p83395898170

    This is the company description per reuters:
    “Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corporation is a Canada-based mortgage investment company. The Company is a non-bank lender that finances a range of properties, which include residential houses, small multi-family residential properties consisting of approximately six units, residential apartment buildings, mixed-use residential apartments and store-front properties, investment properties, land and development sites, and development and construction projects. It also invests in all forms of short-term bridge financing for residential and commercial real estate (including, primarily, construction loans for such properties) for owners and developers. Its investment portfolio includes conventional first mortgages, conventional non-first mortgages, non-conventional mortgages, discounted debt investments and related investments. Its non-conventional mortgages include equity and participating mortgage loans; joint venture financing, and mezzanine and subordinated mortgage debt.”

  17. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: FC.TO These are the annual total returns (price + distributions) since 2002
    2002 17.98%
    2003 16.43%
    2004 14.12%
    2005 2.67%
    2006 6.22%
    2007 7.02%
    2008 -0.49%
    2009 24.79%
    2010 23.62%
    2011 18.36%
    2012 10.77%
    2013 -3.13%
    2014 9.59%
    2015 10.09%
    2016 16.32%
    AVG 11.62%

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Thanks for thinking of me. Oddly enough my partner’s condo is managed by Firm Management. Here is the 5 year chart of FC.to. Price did break its steeper uptrendline and has sold off somewhat. The major uptrendline is still intact. I do like the business they are in as that is usually very steady income unlike most companies that are often shocked with one thing or the other. I’ll watch it and perhaps get onboard at some opportune point when oversold. Not much actual price movement but that can be a blessing as well on selloffs.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FC.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27240322868&a=505850454

  19. Mick/NV Says:

    Don’t know anything about fc.to, never owned it or even looked at it. When I see a stock that has a 7% yield I do wonder how it has performed over the years. Over the past 5 years, the stock is essentially flat, no cap appreciation. If you look at ry.to which has a 3 5% yield , if you exclude the dividend, the stock is up 86%, ahead of fc.to performance with the dividend. As long as the dividend is safe, a 7% yield might be better than no yield, but in the case of fc.to there is little room for error, you always hope any dividend you receive will be greater than any potential decrease in capital, and you always hope that there is capital appreciation along with your dividend. Hope fc.to does well over time, and any bad news with regards to hcg.to does not affect fc.to, although not a dividend grower it has been paying a dividend for a number of years

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FC.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61602430785

  20. Bernie Says:

    Re: #19,

    Mick, FC.TO pays a bond-like interest distribution rather than a dividend so it might be preferable to compare it to a high yield bond or a REIT rather than a financial Corp. The payout ratio is typically near 95% by plan. The net profit margin is 60% which is also in-line with the long term average.

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