Tech Talk for Wednesday June 14th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday June 14th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 1 point in pre-opening trade.

Index futures dipped slightly following news that Representative Steve Scalise and others had been shot.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for May Consumer Prices was unchanged versus a gain of 0.2% in April. Actual was a decline of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, consensus for May Consumer Prices was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in April. Actual was an increase of 0.1%. Consensus for May Retail Sales was an increase of 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in April. Actual was a decline of 0.3%. Excluding auto sales, consensus for May Retail Sales was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in April. Actual was a drop of 0.3%.

Starbucks dropped $0.52 to 60.40 after Wedbush Securities downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform.

H&R Block gained $2.59 to $29.58 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter earnings.

Restaurant Brands International, parent company of Tim Hortons added $0.64 to $58.06 after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to Outperform.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/06/13/stock-market-outlook-for-june-14-2017/

Note seasonality charts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, TSX Composite Index, Canadian Dollar and Fertilizer Industry.

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Energy and telecom sectors testing pivotal levels of support as they benefit from technology rotation. See http://www.equityclock.com/2017/06/12/stock-market-outlook-for-june-13-2017/

Rogers Communications $RCI, a TSX 60 stock moved above $46.93 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Coal ETF $KOL moved above $13.03 completing a double bottom pattern.

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George Weston $WN.CA moved below $120.01 completing a double top pattern.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quiet. Breakout: $CINF. Breakdown: $MYL

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included LEN, NDAQ, VLO, L, EFX and DOW. No additional breakdowns.

Home Builder SPDRs $XHB moved above $$38.42 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: The Home Builder ETF: ITB with a greater concentration in Home Construction stocks also broke to new highs.

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Intertape Polymer $ITP.CA moved above $24.30 setting a new intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 13th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 13th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 13th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Josef Schachter on BNN’ Market Call Tonight

Josef appeared on the show on Monday evening. Following are links:

http://www.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/josef-schachter-s-top-picks~1144988

http://www.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/josef-schachter-s-past-picks~1144963

http://www.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/full-episode-market-call-tonight-for-monday-june-12-2017~1141753

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 2.80 to 75.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 2.08 to 44.31 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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19 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday June 14th 2017”

  1. NRG Says:

    Bernie

    Very good article on dividend growth investing vs. indexing from yesterday. I am going to keep that one around and read it again when I second guess my strategy. Thanks.

  2. Mick/NV Says:

    Here’s a good example of a company that appears to be heading to bankruptcy , aim.to cut all their dividends today including preferred shares , the outlook is not good. Can’t remember the last time I have seen negative pivot points. Although I do not own this stock, I do collect aeroplan points, will need to use them soon, if this company goes under not sure what will happen. Good luck to anyone who owns this stock.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AIM.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p02063022342&a=529393875

  3. NRG Says:

    Bernie

    Good question/answer from 5i research on market volatility and holding onto gains.

    Q: Hello 5i
    With talk of capital flow rotation, Pundits claiming dooms day freely in the media, some stocks and sectors seeing chart patterns rounding out in topping formation……..and all the other market topping signs,

    what are the portfolio review activities an investor should be conducting today?

    As you can imagine, some of my longtime winners are giving back gains and other stock prices have stalled. It will be disappointing to me if I just sit and watch as my gains evaporate.

    Short of telling me you are not market timers, do you have thoughts on what an investor is to do in the current environment to hold onto profits, while managing behaviours and emotions?

    Portfolio is widely diversified including pension split between CAD, US and EAFE. There is very little fixed income utilized given expected low and negative bond returns.

    Thanks
    Dave
    5i Research Answer:

    The main options here are (1) Hedging (2) Going to a bigger cash position (3) Sector rotation (4) Doing nothing.

    For various reasons (lack of correlation/fees) hedging is not typically an easy and workable solution. All sorts of products exist to hedge (put options, VXX ETFs, inverse ETFs etc) but we are not comfortable with most of them as they are typically just not that effective as hedges.

    Cash is usually king for those worried about the market (note we are not overly concerned). Cash does not cost anything to hold, and provides of course the maximum amount of flexibility.

    Sector rotation is fine, but requires predictions, and is costly from a trading perspective. We prefer solid diversification so one does not have to worry about any particular sector entering a downturn.

    Doing nothing is typically the best strategy, if your time frame is long enough and your portfolio is diversified.

    Anything other than doing nothing of course involves a prediction. With other alternative You need to decide when to sell, and when to reenter. In addition to trading costs, bid/ask spreads and taxes, it simply is impossible to do on a consistent basis. If we look back in time, there are ALWAYS experts predicting doom and gloom. But, since market are at a record, everyone of them has been wrong, and every single crisis has been a buying opportunity.

    The two things that really matter for stocks are interest rates and earnings. Both are ‘fine’ as far as equities are concerned, for long term positions. Most everything else is just noise.

  4. Bernie Says:

    NRG,

    Re: #1
    Its definitely a keeper. Thanks to Rick for the find!

  5. Bernie Says:

    NRG,

    Re: #3
    Thanks for sharing the Q&A from 5i, timely stuff. As is the nature of my DGI I prefer the buy and hold. If I didn’t already have a diversified portfolio in place I’d be cautious about adding in large purchases in this elevated market. I prefer to add smaller portions to where I see value, especially during the Jun to Oct off-season. Off to golf now.

  6. NRG Says:

    Mick/NV

    Wow. $9 to a buck and a half in one month. death spiral.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the CD$ $CDW once again. Price broke out above the 74.50 level and is presently bumping up against its one year downtrendline. Extreme speculative high short futures positions were a dead giveaway that the CD$ was not going to plunge to 70 cents like many brand named analysts were predicting. The recrossing above the 73.50 breakdown point was a heads up along with clearing and holding above the March lows of 74 cents and consolidating. Regardless of short term moves the CD$ is still in a long term bear market and has a lot of work to do to ever get out of that trend. With our Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz being the former head of Export Canada and knows how important it is to have a low CD$ to U.S.$, I wouldn’t expect the CD$ to get much above 77 cents with an outside chance of reaching 80 cents. Trump also wants a weaker U.S.$ to be competitive again exporting so it will be a battle between the two of them to see who can win this game of competitive currencies. A recovering $WTIC price would boost the CD$ regardless along with a long overdue increase in the BOC rate so 77 to 80 cents is not out of the question. Meanwhile resistance is resistance and all the chit chat about it wont change a thing. The chart will tell the real story.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31415629973&a=511944637

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79118624980&a=462886322

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie NTR (and others who have some ideas on drivers and aren’t 200lb weight lifters)

    Speaking of something important like “GOLF”,any suggestions for a descent driver????? And no I haven’t come to the point where I’m willing to spend $500……(yet)…

  9. roy Says:

    Hello Ron/BC – ENB.To is getting close to support at 50.

  10. Mick/NV Says:

    Ron/BC

    Ntr
    Have you looked at a hybrid club? Golf town tends to have sales on certain clubs, I suspect you are already checking. I did buy my partner a Calloway hybrid when it was on sale, she says it’s great but may be saying that to make me feel good. I find golf to be like skiing, too expensive, rather play tennis, it is free.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Roy
    Price just broke to new sell off lows. Never a good sign. Still some distance from support. But it is oversold and showing a small positive divergence on the RSI 8. Not much to hang your hat on though. Price is king. Even measuring the $4 channel it broke down from suggests a test of $49 or lower. The long term uptrendline is at about $46.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENB.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p54334541471&a=505250832

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENB.TO&p=D&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05063604199&a=431626587

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV

    NTR
    I had a golf pro that gave me and my partner lessons line us both up with a very good set of clubs. And I do have two Hybrids which are exceptional for sure. I’ve been using a 3 wood for a driver but would like a good driver just so I’m in the game on a long drive. Someone here mentioned an Altitude 588 12degree club as they are excellent for the average person or senior. Can’t find one 2nd hand though. But those hybrids are exceptional on the fairways and even teeing off are impressive,thanks.

  13. roy Says:

    Thanks Ron/BC – Will revisit ENB around 49

  14. JP/BC Says:

    Re #7: Ron/BC Thanks for the update on the CD$. I was hoping you would post some CD$ comments/charts today. I’m looking for an entry point for DLR.to.

  15. Canuck2004 Says:

    TSX Broke 200 DMA today, Bearish Signal….

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TSX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p71905316172

    Bearish Rounded Top on Weekly Chart…not good

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TSX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78193932766

    Short Term Bearish Signals as well…

    https://www.canadabulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=%5ESPTSECP3

  16. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #8 NTR
    Sorry, I haven’t kept current with what’s out there in golf equipment. My driver is a Cleveland Titanium Launcher 460 with a stiff flex graphite shaft. I bought it new. Its gotta be 10 to 12 years old but still in great shape, other than being regripped a few times. Its really tough to decide on “the right one” when there are so many choices available. Perhaps check Golftown and ask them for a custom fitting. If I ever buy clubs again I’ll likely go that route.

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Yes that’s a good idea and there is one nearby. Been using a Biocell 3 wood graphite shaft and it’s been doing ok.Just finished 9 holes and we both did badly.My left hand low putting that was working so well vanished it seems. ATTITUDE is everything it seems.

  18. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    NTR
    There is no linear progression when it comes to improving one’s golf game. It can be a most humbling sport. One tends to remember the good shots/holes/rounds and forget the bad ones. I suggest practicing your short game (chipping & putting) more than your woods/irons. That’s where you can really shave off strokes.

    I can’t tell you if a driver will improve your drives overall. Certainly it will go father but it may not be as accurate. The larger faced drivers and newer technology may help you make better contact so long as you don’t grip too hard and/or try to “kill it”. Swing easy…hit hard. Attitude is important, as is not losing your cool 🙂

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie NTR

    Well I’ve got my drives very close to the green now more often than it doesn’t. Took a long time to do that. Just thought a good driver would help with the odd extra long par 4 or 5 type of thing on some other courses. That 3 wood isn’t quite enough on a par 5. But while focusing on that and improving my putting game went all to hell in a hand basket,lol. And my chipping onto the green when very close and using a Wedge or 9 iron just plain sucks. Going to take more lessons along with my partner too.

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