Tech Talk for Thursday June 15th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday June 15th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 16 points in pre-opening trade. Futures responded to a Washington Post report that President Trump is to be investigated for possible obstruction of justice.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for the June Empire State Manufacturing Index was an increase to 5.0 from -1.0 in May. Actual was an increase to 19.8. Consensus for the June Philly Fed Index was a drop to 27.0 from 38.8 in May. Actual was 27.6. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was a dip to 242,000 from 245,000 last week. Actual was a drop to 237,000.

The Bank of England maintained its overnight lending rate at 0.25%.

Starbucks fell $0.42 to $59.85 after Wedbush Securities downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform.

Urban Outfitters lost $0.64 to $20.45 after RBC Capital lowered its target price to $17 from $21.

Kroger dropped $3.68 to $26.60 after lowering its 2017 guidance.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/06/14/stock-market-outlook-for-june-15-2017/

Note seasonality charts on Consumer Staples Sector, Utilities Sector, Retail Trade, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply, Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index, Hang Seng Index and BSE Sensex Index

Accountability Report

News that President Trump is to be investigated for possible obstruction of justice virtually ensures a period of greater volatility in U.S. equity markets this summer. Accordingly, a series of previously supported seasonal trades in U.S. equities and ETFs no longer are supported. They include:

U.S. Health Care Providers iShares (IHF $145.98) originally supported on April 26th at $136.75

First Trust Biotech ETF ($FBT $109.93 originally supported on May 1st at $108.17

Boeing (BA $192.38) originally supported on May 8th at $185.18

First Trust Healthcare ETF (FHH $24.05 Cdn FXH $65.82 U.S) originally supported on June 1st at $24.31 Cdn and $65.50 U.S. .

Metals & Mining SPDRs (XME $29.43) original supported on June 8th at $30.20

Canadian equities and ETFs also are vulnerable to a spike in volatility during the June 15th to October 15th period. Average decline per period during the past 20 periods from the post June high to bottom of the summer correction is 13.7%. More information will be posted in tomorrow’s Tech Talk report.

 

Observations

Responses to the increase in the Fed Fund rate by 0.25% at 2:00 PM EDT and were mixed:

S&P 500 Index initially moved lower, but recovered to close near break even by the close

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Ditto for the long term Treasury Bond ETF!

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The U.S. Dollar Index moved higher

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Fertilizer stocks look set to move higher within period of seasonal strength. See

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/06/13/stock-market-outlook-for-june-14-2017/

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quietly bullish. Breakouts: $CLX $AWK. No breakdowns.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included DHI, PHM, MCO, FFIV, GPC and SYF. No breakdowns.

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Real Estate iShares $IYR moved above $81.18 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Russian ETF $RSX moved below $19.20 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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“Gassy” stocks on both sides of the border breaking down: $PXD $FRU.CA.

Editor’s Note: Other Canadian “gassy” stocks that subsequently broke support extending intermediate downtrends included CR and ARX.

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Suncor $SU.CA , a TSX 60 stock moved below $39.65 completing a double top pattern.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 14th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 14th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 14th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 2.80 to 72.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 12.20 to 32.11 yesterday. It has dropped to an intermediate oversold level and continues to trend down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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10 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday June 15th 2017”

  1. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    NTR
    with chipping its especially important to keep the arms more rigid, like with putting. If you’re leaving your chips short try moving down to a less lofty iron. It never hurts to take another lesson.

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    The Canadian dollar $CDW rallied up to its downtrendline resistance and typically bounced back. Much of the two cent rally from 73.50 has been short covering with speculative futures traders scrambling to exit their positions. Price would need to clear this downtrendline AND clear 77 to suggest a rally to 80 cents. The price of $WTIC will be the major influence on that as even with the U.S.$ selling off for six months the CD$ did not rally. The $CDW has been weak even against $WTIC so needs to make a major change in relative performance to suggest strength ahead.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p08951194221&a=511944637

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44444269911&a=477936539

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p39044724852&a=511944637

  3. Mick/NV Says:

    Ron/BC

    Ntr

    Talked with a golfer buddy yesterday he mentioned the Taylor M2 driver, supposedly you can adjust loft, angle etc, might be a bit expensive though, golf town may have it on sale.

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    SP500 – Tagged the mid-point of the Bollinger Band and snapped back. US financials holding up better than the overall market while tech weakest and is at support at the 50dayMA on QQQ. Nothing broken down at this point. Financials should lead the market. My opinion is that buyers are stepping into the Cdn banks on weakness. There is accumulation going on.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV

    NTR

    Ok,thanks. I’m going to go to Golf Town with my partner and get tested for a driver. My partner sold her old golf clubs and bought a newer higher quality set of clubs last year. Unfortunately she hasn’t been doing well with the new driver and woods regardless of the higher quality etc. So perhaps Golf Town can sort that out for the both of us. I’ll ask about the Taylor M2 and see what they suggest after getting sized or whatever they call that.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the $TSX 60 ETF:XIU.to. Price has pulled back to the bottom of its 6 month sideways channel support at $22.25 for those that like to trade channels and believe the channel bottom will hold. Statistically odds suggest a channel formed after a steady uptrend in price will break out to the upside. I believe the odds are 75%. But then again there is still a 25% chance it wont either,lol……………One can wait for the breakout or breakdown to take the trade as well and not try and 2nd guess it. After all it is summer time now and odds also suggest major corrections happen in this time frame right into October.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIU.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p54483963628&a=514385735

  7. Neil/AB Says:

    Ron/BC
    Ntr
    Calloway have a reputation for making quite forgiving drivers. I don’t have one but might be worth considering. You can often pick up a new but last years model at Golf Town fairly reasonably priced.
    Re: chipping – lots of different methods but for your basic really just two rules apply. Open your stance a little to get the hips out of the way and put most weight on your forward leg. This will promote a descending stroke into the back of the ball. But don’t be afraid to experiment. I often use a hybrid to chip with.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Neil/AN
    I’m going over to Golf Town this morning so I’ll ask about them,thanks.

  9. still_learning Says:

    Ron/BC
    NTR
    Try chipping with a cross-handed grip (left hand low) and using a putting stroke. Impossible to chilly dip it using this method. Vary the club (8IR to PW) to get more or less distance. Only good for 20 yards in, but has saved me a lot of strokes and embarrassment …smile.
    Bernie

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    still_learning
    NTR

    I’ll give it a try next time out. I did like the left hand low on putting until the magic disappeared but I know the feel of that so will try it with the next pitch to the nearby green.

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