Tech Talk for Friday June 16th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday June 16th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved slightly lower following release of May Housing Starts at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase to 1.22 million units from a revised 1.156 million units in April. Actual was 1.092 million units.

Kroger dropped $0.46 to $24.10 after JP Morgan, RBC Capital and BMO Capital lowered their target price on the stock.

Nike fell $1.03 to $51.87 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight. Target was reduced to $58 from $61.

Electronic Arts added $0.87 to $111.40 after Pacific Crest raised its target price to $134 from $122.

Valeant gained $0.47 to $12.59 after Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

Note seasonality charts on Gold, Industrial Production, Philly Fed Index and Empire State Manufacturing Index


The TSX Composite Index moved below 15,164.73 extending an intermediate downtrend. The Index closed at a 7 month low and has been the weakest equity indices among developed nation indices during the first half of 2017.



StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

The rise in the domestic production of oil starting to level off as price of commodity weakens.


Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to Noon: Bearish. No breakouts. Breakdowns: $DLTR $MAT $KR $KLAC $SYMC $XRX

Editor’s Note: After Noon, breakouts included BEN, MO and CMI. Breakdowns included NUE and MYL

June Manufacturer surveys remain upbeat: Philly & Empire both above seasonal averages $STUDY $MACRO #manufacturing


Magna Int’l MG.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $59.32 completing a double top pattern.


Industrial Production higher by 1.4%, much more than average increase for May of 0.5%. $STUDY $MACRO #Manufacturing


Barrick Gold $ABX, a TSX 60 stock moved below US$15.83 extending an intermediate downtrend.


Celestica $CLS.CA moved below $18.13 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.


First Service Corp $FSV.CA moved below $82.11 completing a double top pattern.


Another “gassy” stock breaks support extending an intermediate downtrend: Bonavista Energy $BNP.CA



Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 15th 2017


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 15th 2017clip_image013

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 15th 2017


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


Keith Richards’ Blog

Headline reads, “One momentum indicator suggests trend change coming”. Following is a link:


TSX Performance during the mid-June to mid-October period.

The TSX Composite Index, like major U.S. equity indices, has a history of moving into a corrective phase in the summer time. During the past 20 periods from its high after June 15th to its subsequent low before October 15th, loss by the Index has been as low as 2.9% in 2013 and as high as 43.4% in 2008. Average loss per period was 13.7%. Of equal importance, the TSX Composite normally reached an annual low during this period (with one exception in 1999 when the Index completed a double bottom pattern) and a buying opportunity was presented. Following is the data:


thurs nite june 15


S&P 500 Momentum Barometer


The Barometer was unchanged yesterday at 72.20. It remains intermediate overbought.


TSX Momentum Barometer


The Barometer added 0.81 to 32.92 yesterday. It remains slightly intermediate oversold and in a downtrend, but signs of a bottoming have yet to appear.


Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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54 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday June 16th 2017”

  1. sp Says:

    seasonality not working this year with oil/gas company.After Calgary trumpee show now any time, we sell oil/gas stocks, this year i have a loss, i am holding,, keep going down. I losser I don’t want to add more until see trend change. Any thought or options. or precaution not to generate more losses.

  2. Sandra Says:

    Hope everyone is enjoying the good weather.

    Amazon bought whole Foods so all food stores are down.
    Any good one a buy (with dividend)?


  3. roy Says:

    Hello Sandra
    What about Walmart? WMT? 2.75% dividend

  4. Mick/NV Says:

    Market tends to overreact, big gap down on WMT, was able to pick up some shares as it dropped below $74, decent yield , 2.75%, dividend has increased every year for the past 44, don’t expect that to change.

  5. roy Says:

    Hello Mick/NV – WMT seems to have done quite well since Warren Buffet dropped it.
    WMT just bought an online retailer as well, so that may be another factor as well.

  6. Mick/NV Says:


    I expect WMT shares to be volatile today, maybe into next week, but gaps tend to close, one could buy and hold or trade this one successfully

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    New $TSX lows for 2017.

  8. roy Says:

    Thanks Mick/NV – Got WMT and IAC on my watch list to maybe buy over the summer months

  9. Bernie Says:


    How did your Golf Town visit go?

  10. Sandra Says:

    Thanks Roy and Mick/NV. Will add to my watch list. I agree with #5. Great one to trade.

    Thanks for TSX chart. TECK broke $20 today, having a nasty day due to coal prices. Will it apply brakes @19 or go down to $12 ?!

  11. Sandra Says:


    What do you think of CNQ-N and ECA.TO charts? CNQ is a strong buy. ECA is recommended as strong performer. I have traded both in past. CNQ has pulled back quite a bit and has yield 3.53% as of today. Indicators show a positive divergence building up. Would you wait till around $24?
    ECA.TO too has come down full circle to Sept lows. Wandering if it will go to 10.75. What do you see?

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    I was thinking about you today when I saw TECk/ plunging to new lows and wondering if you still wanted the stock. Price is very,very oversold and has pulled back a Fibonacci 50% retracement of the entire 2016 rally. Doesn’t mean it won’t continue to selloff and catching a falling knife isn’t the best policy as a rule. Butttttttt,a reversal in momentum might be something to watch for if you are thinking of trading it. Long ago I used to buy some very cheap out of the money Call Options on something like this and they often paid off nicely. They often expired too,lol.

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    I went to Golf Town and spoke to a well informed golf guy. He suggested a Cobra F-6 light flex driver. They are on sale now until Sunday for $225 which is 50% off. Very tempting as my clubs are Cobra graphite as well so it’s a good fit I guess. It has an adjustable loft as well and is weighted. Tough decision as I’m not used to paying that kind of money for clubs. I guess I should look at it like I did handguns when shooting competitively and paying an easy $1000 for a new gun and then spending about the same on fine tuning to make it competition ready. Same thing I suppose. So for now I put in a wanted ad to see if anyone out there has one 2nd hand for sale. If not I guess I should bite the bullet and just buy it. Only thing that bothers me is not so much the cost but if I don’t like the driver then what do I do,lol………….

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Price has some history of support over the last year at $28 and price is now playing with that level. Would not want to see a Friday close below $28 by much. Price compared to XLE has been improving over the last 18 months. Price compared to $WTIC has been choppy though. Watch this $28 level for support as a breakdown there would be bearish.

  15. Sandra Says:

    Thank you for thinking of me, I am interested in buying TECK/B.TO . I am hoping for momentum when it reverses and will be trading it not holding. Did you look at weekly chart, looks like near support.

    For your golfs did you try in your area? Plenty of 2nd ones on sale usually. In spring, we sold lot of useless (for us) stuff. Lot of people visit the site for buying and selling.

  16. Mick/NV Says:



    You should be able to take the club back, they do have a reasonable return policy, not sure if you had asked. 50% off is a good deal, probably clearing for the new models.

  17. Mick/NV Says:

    Soemone was asking about Telus a while ago, has had a good couple of days, today moving above the main pivot point resistance in a big way, and flirting with a record high. If this holds will probably test R1 resistance before pulling back a bit. This is my biggest holding so will not be adding, but this has been a good buy and hold stock.

  18. Bernie Says:


    I don’t keep up on models but I’d say that is a really good price for a quality brand name driver. If you haven’t already I’d suggest they custom fit you and you actually test drive the club first. A “light flex”, especially with a graphite shaft, is too whippy for me but if its the same as your other clubs and you’re used to that flex then that is the way to go.

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra…Price is presently testing important support now at $11.50. Would not want to see a Friday close below this level. But support is support and it is oversold. If $11.50 holds a $2 bounce to $13.50 would be typical. Breaking support would be an automatic exit and wait for a lower support to be tested. How much of a break depends on your own comfort level. Your $ risk should be predetermined ‘before’ you buy something. And you don’t have to ride price down either. Getting off a bad trade ‘before’ it goes over the waterfall protects your trading account.

  20. Mick/NV Says:

    Tried to pick up some shares yesterday as it dropped below the s1 pivot point support but missed it, today put in another bid and price dropped below my bid price but was not filled, not sure why.
    Price is down 9% since the Jan high , will see what happens next week but I think this is a good buy below s1 support.

  21. Bernie Says:


    I forgot to mention that Gold Course Pro Shops will often match competitors prices and will let you try out clubs on their driving range before purchase. They might even do some custom fitting for you.

  22. Pat/Vic Says:

    Could you put up a chart of MX.TO if you get a chance ?
    I am wondering if I should add more or wait.
    Thank you,Pat

  23. Ron/BC Says:

    Not at a computer now and not smart enough to use my smart phone to post a chart here with it.I also don’t know how to stream a Netflix movie off my phone or computer to the TV either.

  24. roy Says:

    Through this choppy market, a couple of US stocks are at highs
    WM – Waste Management
    AWK – American Water Works
    To me they dont look overbought either and have decent dividends. Held these for a while

  25. Ana Says:


    Bollinger Band top is $14.61, currently at $14.31. So $SPX will be turning down again next week.

  26. Ana Says:


    Read your rant of the NDP a few weeks ago. The Sask Party is certainly not the answer there.

    Poor Saskatchewan!

    Took my mother in for an appointment to Saskatoon and went to Tim Horton’s. $10.00 for lunch, $2.00 for taxes!

  27. Tawny Says:


    What the hey happened to today? Dow over 8% today? going bankrupt? . looks like a wipe out of my investment. My stupid for holding.

  28. Ana Says:


    Looked up EIF.TO for you.

  29. Mick/NV Says:


    I agree, need to stay away from these high dividend yielding stocks, especially with large insider buying, always trying to fool investors, sometimes it is best to do the opposite. Good luck!

  30. Tawny Says:


    Re EIF – thanks for info Ana. Mick you agreed with who? Me and my stupido? It was NOT a high yield stock when I bought it and it was touted on this board to be a super dividend stock with good history. Down more than 18% on this one:(
    And some worry about stocks like TESLA. A little scary but Teslat has a huge following and I am up 36% in short time. I am down 🙁 on divie stocks!! I will likely hold onto EIF – predict there will be buying on Monday — it would take mega guts to buy at this oversold level to correct a little on the losses, eh. hmm???

  31. roy Says:

    Hello Sandra Re: # 2 above
    ATD.B -TO – Alimentation Couche Tard has not had a great year, but it looks like it may start to move up. Maybe Mick/NV,RonBC or others can give you more details on this one.

  32. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is Price typically double topped at the 2015 high just like the $TSX. Double tops are major price resistance and tend to stall out there and roll over. Then you watch to see what price pattern it forms. This stock just rolled over and sold off over 20% so far. No obvious price support until $47 to $50. Usually a good idea to exit just before the double top and wait for the next pattern to form and insist on a breakout that holds to get back on again. Watch the downtrendline for a clue as well as clearing it just might signal another run up again. I don’t know anything about the fundamentals of the company, just what the chart pattern is saying. Lots of price volatility with the stock and could be traded in a short time frame as well.

  33. Bernie Says:


    Re: #27 EIF.TO
    Sorry, I’m not up to speed with the daily news. I have no idea why it dropped today. I think it was Sherri who mentioned EIF was highly touted by Keystone earlier this year. If she’s a subscriber she might be able to get their current take on the stock. I’ve owned EIF since 2009 for dividend income and income growth. In my RRSP its one of 36 equal weighted by income holdings so its only a 2.7% position. Its a much larger holding in my non-registered account. I’m reluctant to sell there because of my huge capital gain on paper, I’m still up about 133% not including dividends. I can understand being a bit concerned if holding it for capital gains and being underwater, especially if its a large holding. If you hold it in your non-registered account and want to sell at a loss you might be able to declare a capital loss at tax time.

  34. Bernie Says:


    Re: #26
    Wow, 20% tax on your meal, that’s crazy! I haven’t kept up on SK’s taxes since I lived there from 1990 to 1994. I find it hard to believe the provincial tax on eating out is 15% over there. Are you sure your figures are right? Are you factoring in the tip by chance?

  35. Ron/BC Says:

    I posted this chart long ago after recommended it a couple of times. Didn’t mean anything to me as I wasn’t interested, but I do recall others commenting on it positively as it did double from the first recommendation. He also recommended again a few weeks ago on Money Talks. I also recall posting this chart when it broke its uptrendline and started selling off and commented on the breakdown with a chart a couple of times as it was bearishly selling off. But the stock has been selling off since December but is very oversold as well. Doesn’t mean it can’t go lower and trying to catch a falling knife isn’t usually a good idea. But price has pulled back a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement which often serves as support. It really doesn’t pay to step in front a stock that has broken its uptrendline and is selling off. Buying the pullbacks in an uptrend has much higher odds of success.

  36. Ron/BC Says:

    So you think a Light Flex Driver is too whippy? Is a medium to stiff flex shaft a better choice overall? I just have no idea.

  37. Bernie Says:


    Re: #35 EIF.TO
    I don’t plan any changes to my positions but Tawny and others on here who own the stock may find your comments and chart quite useful. Thanks for posting!

    Re: #36 NTR
    Ron, I wasn’t suggesting the lite flex was too whippy for you. I was just referring to my swing. I’ve been using the same clubs with stiff flex shafts for many years. I don’t know if that flex is right for a 66 year old me anymore but I will continue to use them for a while yet. I don’t know your swing so I can’t recommend a shaft flex for you. I’m certainly no pro either to be giving advice either…lol.

  38. Bernie Says:

    Re: #37
    Wow, two “eithers” in one sentence. Senior moment…lol

  39. Ron/BC Says:

    I never noticed your double eithers either. Either I’m having a senior moment too or I’m just losing it. Oh,oh…………….

    I guess I’m just feeling pressured to buy that Cobra F-6 by Sunday for $225 which is 50% off. I’ll see how my wanted ad goes on a couple of web sites. And I’ll browse around some 2nd hand stores and see if I get lucky. Not much time though. I looked at a ton of for sale ads on drivers but don’t know much about them. I did notice most drivers for sale were stiff flex. But then again that was the norm up until more recently so may just be older drivers. There is also regular flex and light flex.

  40. steve Says:

    re- EIF.To
    eif is a good example of what Ron/BC is preaching about, whatever goes up also goes down. On the 5 year Renko chart the last time the RSI was above the 70 % line was in Dec. 2016 since then the trend is down.If we get a further market correction we may well see the 26 dollar area.

  41. Mick/NV Says:

    here is a weekly chart of ATD/, looks like it has been in a trading range for the past 8 months between $57 and $65. Had looked at this stock in the past but never bought, over the past 5 years the stock is up 360%, ytd though up 2.5%. Doesn’t have a big yield, under 1% but that is ok as it has been increasing its dividend each year for the past 7.

    Hit the s1 pivot point support friday, if I had been watching probably would have tried to buy, if it breaks above the main pivot point resistance next week will probably run up to around $65 before pulling back. If price drops down to the $60 level again or below, I think it would be a good pick up for a hold.

  42. roy Says:

    # 41 – Thanks MickNV – awesome analysis of ATD.B

  43. Bernie Says:


    Re: #40

    Thanks for your comment and graph.

    I’ve adapted Warren Buffet’s famous two rules of investing to fit my investing strategy. Rule #1 – Don’t lose income. Rule #2 – Never forget Rule #1. I agree stock prices go up and down. I try to not concern myself with prices too much. Dividend income mostly goes up or sideways, it rarely goes down. When it does my policy is to sell on the announcement of the cut or suspension. I have had five cuts since I started with DGI in mid 2008, including two during the recession. The other three were with risky high dividend stocks which I shouldn’t have bought in the first place. My dividend income has been averaging 8% organic growth annually. Per my investing strategy I would have to have 3 of my 36 holdings completely suspend their dividends for my annual income to drop. For the same effect 6 out of 36 would have to cut their dividends by 50% or 12 by 25%…etc.

    The beauty of having a large stock portfolio instead of an ETF is the ability to access and purge individual members if need be instead of having to cut the whole kit and caboodle. I wonder how many ETF holders ever look at their fund’s constituents and then decide to sell the ETF because 2% of the holdings are slightly in the red with respect to price performance even though the ETF is doing well?

  44. Ron/BC Says:



    I had Golf Town put the Cobra King F-6 Driver aside until tomorrow at 6pm when the sale ends. Have to make a decision by then. I also chose the Regular Flex shaft as the guy said a Light Flex can cause slicing more easily. So I just thought of the 3 bear story where one bowl was too hot and the other bowl was too cold and the one in the middle was just right. Somehow it makes sense to me to pick the one in the middle. Meanwhile my phone and email haven’t produced a single call.

  45. Ana Says:

    #39. Ron/BC

    Why do you believe that you do not deserve a $225.00 new club?

    If it will bring you some joy just buy it.

    You do not seem like an extravagant person, so let this be your father’s day treat!

  46. Ron/BC Says:

    Yes that’s a good point. It’s not a lot of money either relative to many sports or activities. I guess I’m thinking that not being an expert in the subject what if I don’t like the club and it isn’t an improvement to the clubs I have already. Haven’t spent much on golf yet as I bought an excellent brand named set at a very good price a golf pro put me onto last year. I did have the shop put the driver away for me until 6 pm tomorrow. Have to make a decision before then. So yes, whether I deserve it or not I just might buy it regardless,lol…………

  47. Pat/Vic Says:

    #32 Thank you !

  48. Tawny Says:

    Ana, Ron/BC, Bernie, Mick

    RE EIF: First of all my apologies, I was in a hurry when I wrote because I had to run to an appointment. When rereading later, my writing on EIF sounds angry and this is not correct. I am a little upset with MYSELF for holding as I feel I should have sold long ago. My attention was in other directions. And, I take full responsibility for my investment decisions at all times.

    Ron/BC thanks for charts, see my note to Ana for my thoughts.
    Bernie, your buy and hold has been successful. I bought at the wrong time… my bad. At the time of purchase – about 2.9% of total portfolio funds so not a disaster overall.
    Ana, again thanks for your posting in #28 and this is important. I had a good read which is why I said EIF will probably go up on Monday. There are many different ratings of this stock by different firms… and recent downgrade likely triggered the sell off which escalated.
    To me the most important info in the write up is the recent purchases by EIF directors and overall insider stock acquisition…. if this is to believed (will go by the info – but who really knows). So if a director purchased on June 12 and $32.75 and another on May 11 at $35.45… I am going to assume stock is oversold and will bounce back next “market up day.” The consensus average is a “Buy” with price target of $45.22. Only an average – some are right, some wrong, but I will hold and may buy more to regain quicker depending on stock action.
    When are next earnings due?

  49. Bernie Says:


    That is a very good price for the Cobra driver! I’m sure you’ll adapt to it with some practice, especially if the flex is similar to your other clubs. The newer tech drivers are also a lot easier to hit. I’d confirm the return policy with Golf Town before paying if you feel you may want to bring it back. Good luck with your choice and Happy Father’s Day!

  50. Ron/BC Says:

    Thanks and I think I’ll just buy it as I tend to analyze things to death and after all is considered I’ve realized most drivers out there for sale are not adjustable so many are for sale as the loft is too low or too high for them now while an adjustable one today like the Cobra F-6can be reset from 9* to 12*. So if I don’t care for the loft I simply have to adjust it and stop blaming the driver. No excuses for selling it with an adjustable one I think. Plus one can have the graphite shaft changed from Regular that I’ve decided on to Light if I wish. So with all the technical aspects analyzed I see it as a “buy signal”,lol……And yes, Happy Father’s Day to you as well as all the fathers on the site. This is the 1st fathers day I’ve ever had where I won’t see one of my kids. And my partner is spending the day with her buddy. But we do plan on diner later.

  51. Mick/NV Says:

    Here is a 5 yr performance chart of, including dividends. Stock has not performed badly, well ahead of the TSX but below one of its peers One can always find other stocks that have performed better/worse, but on average has not done too bad in the mid to long term. They have been issuing shares/debt the last few years to fund their cap ex (which has also been increasing). Their payout ratio based on eps was 98% last year and well over that the years before, however their free cash excluding cap ex appears to nicely cover the dividend. I suspect the concern might be whether there will be a decline in earnings going forward, if so that will increase their payout ratio based on eps and reduce their free cash and lessen the chance of a dividend increase. They report again on Aug 10th, that might clear up any issues on the dividend going forward, wouldn’t buy the stock at the moment, not much support between current price and around $26 or so.

    10yr performance chart below, including and excluding dividends

  52. Ron/BC Says:

    Just thought I’d comment further on the CD$ as it is of such importance to you. As my previous posts with charts showed the CD$ ran up to the two year downtrendline just under 76 and backed off which was expected. Next “price resistance” is 77 “if” that downtrendline is broken. I have just learned that the high speculative short selling on the CD$ is still intact which means another short ‘squeeze” could occur again as there is too much bearish sentiment on the CD$ with too many speculators on that side of the boat. Clearing that downtrendline and holding would be a heads up for the CD$ and suggest a bounce up to important price resistance at 77 cents. That is where I switched from CD$ to U.S.$. The 77 cent level from there would be what to watch as clearing 77 and holding would suggest a run to 80 cents and would change the picture from bearish to bullish ahead. As long as price remains below the present downtrendline the chart is bearish and in a downtrend. Clearing it and testing 77 would suggest something more on the upside. The CD$ is and will continue to be weighed down by the price of $WTIC which is like a lead ball to carry around. The two charts above the main one need to be watched for a change in trend. The U.S.$ sold off and pulled back a Fibonacci 61.8% and seems to be holding. Both the U.S.$ and the CD$ can go in the same direction for awhile as history has shown. The U.S.$ selloff from December through June also saw a weak CD$ due mainly to the weak Crude price. See the 2nd chart of the U.S.$ and note the November low selloff to 96 support which is where price is now. No guarantee but is what I see here. And with Trump wanted a lower U.S.$ to be more competitive for U.S. manufacturers as well as our B.O.C. Governor wanting a low CD$ for the same reason as well it won’t be easy dealing with the two currencies. Just thought I’d give you my thoughts on the two fwiw…….

  53. Tawny Says:

    Ron re #52

    Thank you so much. Will save this to watch. You are so good at charting and analysis, I think you missed your calling!

  54. Ana Says:

    Happy Father’s Day to all of those fathers who nurtured children and keep close relationships with their children !

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