Tech Talk for Thursday August 3rd 2017

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Editor’s Note: Don Vialoux is scheduled to appear tomorrow (Friday) at 5:30 PM EDT on BNN’s Market Call Tonight

Pre-opening Comments for Thursday August 3rd

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were unchanged following release of the Weekly Jobless Claims report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was 244,000 versus 245,000 last week. Actual was 240,000.

The Bank of England maintained its overnight lending rate to major banks at 0.25%.

Second quarter earnings continue to pour in. Companies that reported since yesterday’s close included Aetna, AIG, Allergan, Avon, Cheesecake Factory, Chesapeake Energy, Church & Dwight, Clorox, Dish Network, Fitbit, Gannett, IAC Interactive, Kellogg, MetLife, Regeneron, Square, Symantec, Tesla, Teva and Yum Brands.

Tesla jumped $21.52 to $347.41 after reporting a smaller than consensus second quarter loss.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/08/02/stock-market-outlook-for-august-3-2017/

Note seasonality charts for Apple, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply and Crude Oil.

Observations

The Shanghai Composite Index briefly moved above 3,295.19 and 3,301.21 to reach a 21 month high.

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S&P 500 Index Performance in years ending in 7

Art Cashin mentioned this chart on CNBC yesterday. It implies that the S&P 500 Index in years ending in 7 peaks in late July, drops precipitously into late October and recovers thereafter to the end of the year. No recurring annual events were offered to explain the phenomenon. However, it is interesting to note that short and intermediate technical indicators in 2017 currently are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new all-time high milestone yesterday on a close above 22,000. The Average is price weighted, implying that higher priced stocks in the Average had a greater impact on its performance. According to a CNBC report last night, only six Dow Industrial Average stocks accounted for the last 1,000 points gain. Biggest contributors were Boeing, McDonalds, UnitedHealth and Apple.

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A slow summer movie season has impacted the movie theatre stocks

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Financials taking another stab at resistance despite falling yields. See

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/08/01/stock-market-outlook-for-august-2-2017/

Technicals for S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Mixed. Breakouts: $BBY $CB $ILMN $AAPL AME Breakdowns: $AN $PXD $AIZ $ABC $CAH $DVA $GGP

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included TRV, PHM and INTC. Breakdowns included NOV, MAC, BAX and MYL

Tim Hortons increased its price for coffee today. No surprise based on this chart: $JO

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Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH moved below $57.43 completing a double top pattern.

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Travelers $TRV, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $129.60 to all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 2nd 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 2nd 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 2nd 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped another 1.13 to 63.60 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 1.47 to 47.50 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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21 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday August 3rd 2017”

  1. Neil/AB Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Thanks for the note last night on PHO. As for PEO I recall seeing a note from you a few days back. Sorry. Yes, I still own but haven’t added. Like Morneau they are in the HR space but I don’t know enough about Morneau to compare them.

  2. dutchcanuck Says:

    Been reviewing the quarterly results of Canadian energy cos. Find the results truly remarkable.
    Despite all the moaning and groaning most cos are reporting positive cashflow and in many instances positive earnings. Seems they accomplished this by drastically reducing their costs, a slightly better price per boe and higher netbacks. The weak US$ is a drag currently, but that won’t last(IMHO). NA inventories of oil are down from 34 days supply to 28 days and continue to drop. Opportunity knocks, but it’s not for the faint of heart.

    Alaris Royalty took another kick in the pants. Yes, I do own a full position in this one.(alas). They are losing their their best customer due to a buyout. Also Mark Cohodes, the now wellknown US short seller was on BNN the other day and once again trashed AD as well as HCG and EFN.

    NRG, not heard from you for a while. Still pouring cash into div stocks? Always appreciated your input.

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    I’ve been using this Zacks events site to punch in stock symbols to see when the next Earnings dates are for U.S. based stocks. Not that I care what the earnings are but need to know ‘when’ that date is if long or short, as price can react dramatically on those dates. I don’t seem to be able to punch in $TSX stock symbols in that box so I can then put that date on $TSX stock charts to see when viewing the charts. If someone could tell me now to do this please do………… I only want the next earnings date.

    http://zacks.thestreet.com/CompanyView.php

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    Your IPI stock pick turned out to be a big winner. Once it crossed above $2.70 and held it was a winner. Lots of potential ahead but presently very overbought. Short term traders will likely take their profits here.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55987977865&a=533827306

  5. dutchcanuck Says:

    Neil/AB
    PEO like Morneau handles the personnel and staffing admin functions for a company. Seems like a profitable business, but PEO is very expensive. Is this a Hodgson recommendation? Would love to own it.

  6. Sherri Says:

    #4 Ron/BC
    Yup, too bad I chickened out and sold it early – short term thinking and that “fear” still haunting me. One day…..

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    A wise old well known trader/investor years ago when asked what the most important thing to focus on in the market place was said “Don’t lose money.” While at the time it seemed simplistic and flippant and even condescending, I can appreciate his remark more than ever before. Don’t worry about missing things. Just “Don’t lose money,lol”…………. An easy way to trade/invest that no one talks about much is Spread Trades. EX: Buy XLY AND at the same time Sell XLP. So you just purchase the spread if you think the market is rising and consumer discretionary stocks are going to outperform the more defensive consumer staples. There are lots of possible spread trades. You can buy a book on the subject from Amazon if interested. It’s a simple boring way to invest without all the hype of individual stocks and trend better too. Some people like the “RUSH” of individual stocks soaring and plunging so you have to decide why you are investing or trading first.

  8. Neil/AB Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    I got into it because of his chat about it. Never a top pick as far as I know. Believe he still holds it in one of his portfolios however from his more recent comments it doesn’t seem he’s as strong on it as he was before. Partly why i haven’t added.

  9. nizar Says:

    Our dollar higher will impact export,minimum wages going up,housing slow,new rental stooped building as to the rent control,realtors and land transfer tax cut into half if not more,Our GDP forecast totally wrong.Leave in Canada invest in US market seems to be best answer.Comments welcome.i FORGOT
    AMAZON effect on grocery,appliances,and retail leasing.

  10. Sherri Says:

    #7 Ron/BC
    Appreciate your comments and wisdom, always. Why am I investing/trading? To try and make enough for our retirement. Hubby has no pension, so I need to do a much better job of it soon or I’ll have to hand it over to a “professional” which I will hate 🙂 I have never shorted stocks. Something new to learn about.

  11. Larry/ON Says:

    HCG – Selling on Earnings News? – Now Up Today while the other Canadian banks are down – A lot of shares just changed from weak hands to strong hands. That could be a very positive development for the stock.

  12. roy Says:

    Anyone own ATG.TO? FFH recently made a large investment in this company.

  13. roy Says:

    oops – I meant AGT. TO. not ATG.TO

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    I was self employed most of my life and never had a pension to count on. Keep in mind when your husband retires the kids will be long gone (hopefully). And you can sell the house or start using the equity to enjoy life with. I know I considered spending the value of my house by using Manulife Financial where you just pay interest on what equity you’ve used up from them. But I got tired of spending money on the house & yard and exited before I had to spend some big bucks on major repairs not far down the road. So now I’m free from all that worry and costs with more cash than I know what to do with. As a small contractor I met a lot of retired seniors with serious repair bills in front of them and no way to pay for them without eating into their savings. At some point you need to realize it’s time to move on and just enjoy life. So I’m spending my kids inheritance money,lol. But with a Spread Trade you can simply buy the Spread. So you are only betting on the direction of the difference between them.If one sector goes up and another sector tends to go down when the other goes up you can buy a spread of the two. You can always call your broker and ask how they work. And get a Spread Trading book. This is a good site for such things as this site was specifically designed for Technical Analysis and Seasonal Trends. So a Spread trade you can chart is a natural fit. But a Spread Trade with Sector ETFs would trend far better than individual stocks that can swing up and down like a yo-yo.

  15. NRG Says:

    #2 dutchcanuck

    Hi dutch. Enjoying retirement. Traveling, riding the Harley, landscaping, renovating, playing slowpitch and pickleball. Right now I have pneumonia so I am supposed to do nothing. Right.
    Yes I an still piling money into the markets. The markets are very spooked right now, with misses on earnings being punished severely. Still there are some buys out there.
    Recent purchases include BNS, NPI, XTC, KEY, GUD, NFI. FTS, EME, ATD.B, LB, PBH.
    Building up that income stream as my wife has less than 3 months of employment left.
    Good to hear from you. Regards

  16. NRG Says:

    12 Roy

    AGT comment from 5i fyi.

    With the core business in commodities, there can be a lot of volatility in results and some aspects of the business can be out of the company’s control. But the long term demand drivers behind AGT generally are positive (international growth, need for food). AGT has international diversification and growth expectation in the mid single digits are ok but not stellar, but the space in general is a bit slower growth. The involvement of FFH is a nice stamp of approval and the hedge fund involvement provides some catayst potential in the name. The volatility and debt has kept us at bay on this name in general but recent developments do make it look more interesting.

  17. nizar Says:

    High Dollar and higher gas price will also effect tourism after the schools reopen.I wonder which sector will be interesting in Fall?.

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    My partner has a professional service managing her money with a major CD Bank. Last month on her statement she lost thousands of dollars in value. And while that was just one month it does go to show you what an happen even with the U.S.markets hitting record highs. Obviously the professional service looking after her funds were invested mainly in Canadian Financials and Energy. I would have thought her funds would have been far more diversified than that. Typical Canadian investing style since time began. Nothing ever changes.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIU.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79890884288&a=514385735

  19. Sherri Says:

    #14Ron/BC

    Oh Ron if only it was that easy. We do not own a house. We moved a lot with hubby’s work and found it very difficult to build up equity and did not have much luck with timing and housing booms. So, no easy way to retire I’m afraid and so much more pressure to do well with our investments.

  20. Sherri Says:

    #18 Ron/BC

    Had a similar experience with CIBC Wood Gundy and mutual funds. Never again.

  21. Ana Says:

    Sherri,

    I am not sure if we had a discussion on this or not. My apologies if we have covered this topic.

    Are you close to being 60 years old? Many friends of mine have been drawing their retirement funds even though you are suppose to draw them at 65 years old to receive maximum benefit.

    They use these funds for trading or vacations!

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