Tech Talk for Friday August 4th 2017

Daily Reports Add comments

ShareThis

 

Editor’s Note: Don Vialoux is scheduled to appear tonight at 5:30 PM EDT on BNN’s Market Call Tonight

Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 4th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 3 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for July Non-farm Payrolls was 183,000 versus an upwardly revised 231,000 in June. Actual was 209,000. Consensus for July Private Non-farm Payrolls was 175,000 versus 187,000 in June. Actual was 205,000. Consensus for the July Unemployment Rate was a slip to 4.3% from 4.4% in June. Actual was a drop to 4.3%. Consensus for July Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.3%. Consensus for June U.S. Trade Deficit was $45.6 billion versus $46.5 billion in May. Actual was $43.6 billion.

The Canadian Dollar dipped US 0.15 cents to $79.33 following release of Canada’s July employment report. Consensus for July Employment was an increase of 10,000 versus a gain of 45,300 in June. Actual was an increase of 10,900. Consensus for the July unemployment rate was unchanged from June at 6.5%. Actual was a drop to 6.3%.

ADP gained $2.63 to $114.40 on news that activist investor, Bill Ackman is seeking control of the company.

Mylan dipped $0.30 t0 $34.40 after RBC Capital lowered its target price to $33 from $41.

Teva Pharmaceuticals dropped $0.65 to $23.10 after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Underperform. Target was cut to $21 from $37.

 

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/08/03/stock-market-outlook-for-august-4-2017/

Note seasonality charts on Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Payrolls and Manufacturers’ New Orders

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Oil testing declining trendline resistance as investors react to declining inventory levels. See

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/08/02/stock-market-outlook-for-august-3-2017/

Clearwater Seafood $CLR.CA moved below $10.89 completing a double top pattern.

clip_image001

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Breakouts: $WBA $HUM $PWR. Breakdowns: $AN $LB $CHD $MYL $PRGO $CTXS

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included LOW, PEG, PFE, RF, PCG and XEL. Breakdowns included LVLT, NBL, PAYX, APA, PRU, MNK and DISH

Russel Metals $RUS.CA moved above $25.95 and $26.78 setting new intermediate uptrend.

clip_image002

ARC Resources $ARX.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $16.14 extending an intermediate downtrend.

clip_image003

More fallout from the drop in natural gas prices: $APA moved below $44.36 extending an intermediate downtrend.

clip_image004

 

Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 3rd 2017

clip_image006

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 3rd 2017

clip_image008

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 3rd 2017

clip_image010

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Index Momentum Barometer

clip_image011

The Barometer dipped another 3.20 to 60.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

clip_image012

The Barometer dropped 4.22 to 43.28 yesterday. It dipped back to a slightly intermediate oversold level, but has yet to show signs of bottoming.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



36 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday August 4th 2017”

  1. Sherri Says:

    Ron/BC
    I responded to your emails late last night. Thx.

  2. NRG Says:

    Dutchcanuck

    I responded to your comment last night.

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Bull Market Continues – SP500 Heading For New All-Time Highs in August- I am continuing my kamikaze seasonality defying all-in strategy. I may be changing my name to Larry/ON-Kamakazi. Either that or “bag holder.” CM is my number one bet.

  4. dutchcanuck Says:

    NRG #2
    It was good to hear from you. Do you own Reuters(RTI.TO)? Considering it as a buy.

    Larry/ON #4
    I was sorely tempted to buy CIBC, but it’s the most exposed Canadian bank to the housing market.
    Like their strategy of dealing with the rich and famous with their LA bank.

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    DutchCanuck – It’s all scary stories that create uncertainty and opportunity. By the time the uncertainty is gone in a stock the share price has already run up. Try EQB – Earnings report August 10th.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    The U.S.$ touched major price support at 92 and is bouncing back sharply. This bounce back is trashing the Euro,Gold and other inverse markets. Friday’s data won’t update until end of day.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81110621194&a=388965041

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Soooooooooooooo, Doesn’t anyone here know of a site where you can type in a $TSX stock symbol and simply get an earnings date? I would have thought some traders/investors reading this site would know of one. I presently use this Zacks site for getting U.S. listed stocks earnings dates.

    http://zacks.thestreet.com/CompanyView.php

  8. Sandra Says:

    Hi Ron/BC: not sure if you use TDW

    If you do use TDW advanced dashboard, you can create a watch list of your stocks and link (has button) to earnings analyzer component. You will get earnings date, estimate and recommendation for stocks in watch list. Also tells you before/after mkt.

    or
    https://web.tmxmoney.com/earnings_cal.php
    can also set up alert here.

  9. roy Says:

    NRG – Thanks for your response yesterday to AGT. Watching this one.

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    Thanks for the info. I dont deal with TDW. I only want the earnings date on $TSX stocks,nothing more. The Zacks site is a simple entry so want to have the same type of thing.

  11. polish1 Says:

    Ron/BC
    I’m not aware of any such site for $TSX reports

  12. Neil/AB Says:

    Ron/bc
    I know this isn’t what you want and would be kind of cumbersome but it’s the only one I can think of. On google finance you can set up a portfolio of stocks you are interested in. Then when you go to “my portfolio” it will show upcoming events for all the stocks in your portfolio. Unfortunately it only seems to go about a month or so out. It is easy to change and add/ delete stocks to the portfolios. Sorry.

  13. Neil/AB Says:

    Ron/BC
    Oh and you might have to set up a google account if you don’t have one.

  14. dutchcanuck Says:

    I have watched and tracked AGT for years. A couple of fund managers are high on the management of this company. They do a business in pulses(beans, lentils etc) on a worldwide basis. Their debt has stopped me from buying them and they need to go to the market for more. Current problem is that India had an alltime high in lentil production and that scuppered the price.
    Be pvery patient with this one.

  15. roy Says:

    Hello Dutchcanuck Re # 14 – Wonder why Fairfax Financial invested almost 200 million in this one? Should that not cover at least some of their debt?

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    Neil/AB
    Thanks. Perhaps I should just email Zacks and see if I can punch in $TSX symbols somehow on their Events site like I do U.S.Stocks. I did try CA and T and .to but it didn’t work.

  17. Mick/NV Says:

    Ron/BC

    If you go to google finance, sample attached for bce.to, under events will show next earnings date and last earnings date

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE%3ABCE&ei=3AOFWZnQNsOo2Ab9-4h4

  18. Neil/Ab Says:

    5NPlus (vnp.t)
    Just wondering if anyone knows anything about this stock. I don’t. What caught my attention was that it just broke out of a several month consolidation pattern on strong volume after having doubled over the previous few months. The long term chart is not impressive.

    I did some very basic research. They seem to deal with bizarre sounding chemicals and metals. I went to 5I, only two questions asked about it, both from May of this year (just before the double). At that point Peter didn’t seem too interested though he did note they had paid down a lot of debt and were looking more promising.
    They just reported, so I read the press release and wasn’t terribly impressed. Even more ‘adjusted’ this and that and a totally incomprehensible explanation for a small decline in revenue. However, the street seemed to like it. Up 8% today.
    This one kind of interests me so I think I’ll send Peter a question on it, but in the meantime, would be happy to hear from anyone who knows anything about it. Thanks.

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV
    #17. Thanks Mick. You must have sensed me thinking that you would know what I was looking for and wondering where the he– you were,lol. That looks like a good site for $TSX earnings,thanks again.

  20. Neil/Ab Says:

    So, I sent Peter a question on the above. If any smallcappers are interested in his response, let me know and I will share. Otherwise, I won’t bother you any further with this.

  21. dutchcanuck Says:

    Neil /AB
    Picked up on this the other day with intent to get more info on it.
    Any research on this one will be greatly appreciated.

  22. dutchcanuck Says:

    Roy #15
    The $200M went to operating capital not debt.
    Also Prem at Fairfax has more patience than I do.
    Better to buy Fairfax India (IMHO)

  23. Neil/Ab Says:

    Ron/BC
    So, I sense that you and I have ‘issues’. And, politics apart -and most of that is just good fun – it’s not like either of us are going to change the world with our opinions, I really don’t understand why that is. But, the above with my suggestion and Mick’s, being essentially the same, and your responses kind of brought it home.
    You and I have been posting on this site longer than anyone, basically since it got up and running. I have repeatedly extolled your virtues as a teacher and as the person I have learned the most from. I know I from time to time challenge your views, but that is what a good student does.
    So, I kind of don’t get it. What is the issue between us?
    I’m in Parkville the last two weeks of August, I’d be happy to bop down to Vic to meet up, but I doubt you would be interested. If you see a problem, as I do, why not just tell me what it is.

  24. Kam Says:

    Just going thru all comments from past Monday till today.
    I remember writing about probability of market at the brink of finishing 3rd wave and heading down. Right of the bat the first comments came from Larry and Dutchcanuck which can be seen here.

    http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/2017/07/31/tech-talk-for-monday-july-31st-2017/#comment-553162

    Larry/ON, I will just say this, “Welcome to the group,Sir.”

    I have made calls here too. Most are based on EW Probability & some have worked( Gdx in 2015, buying bottom in Early 2016,elections 2016, spx to 2300 and 2500(almost there)) and some haven’t worked (GDX, GLD this year).
    Going outright that market will be picked up right away and won’t hit 200MA this year are pretty bold. Well pat your back if it works and if it don’t then as DutchCanuck said Mr Market will do the chopping.

    This is the way the market has been and frustrating specially 3rd waves are known to do that to people. Most give up on chasing as buy and hold looks like the best deal at the moment with BTFD buyers have been the name of the game for last few times it look like market might correct. 3rd waves will also have some perma bears throw in the towel right when they are ending too.
    I will not go compliance here but everyone is different.
    I still think 3rd might not be finished yet unless we go below 2450.
    http://tiny.cc/rdvvmy

  25. Ron/BC Says:

    Neil/AB
    Your #12 and #13 suggested setting up a portfolio of stocks to get the earnings dates so I didn’t look at the Google site you mentioned as I don’t have or want a portfolio list to check. Mick/NV posted a link with an example of BCE on the $TSX that when I looked at it showed under Events a box just like Zacks to type in a $TSX symbol for the earnings date. Mick’s link that showed the $TSX stocks earnings box was simple without a lot of searching. I don’t really like scrolling through a bunch of data to find things as it drives me crazing looking. There is far too much financial data to go through with all these sites for my liking that’s why I stick to charts with the odd exception. So that’s about it. No issue with you to deal with really. So if you are inclined to come to Victoria please do so. I’ll even buy lunch.

  26. roy Says:

    dutchcanuck : re your response # 22 – Thanks I’ll remove that one from the watch list. Better safe than sorry

  27. NRG Says:

    #4 dutchcanuck

    RTI.TO. Due you mean TRI.TO? Thomson Reuters
    Never have owned them as I thought the newspaper industry was going bust. However they have adapted to change and are still around.
    Good long term play. Big blue chip. Positive comments from 5 I research. 2.9% div. I will watch it for awhile and set some target prices to buy at. Thanks.

  28. FishFat Says:

    Natural Gas closed the week testing the lower trend line of its consolidation pattern.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NATGAS&p=W&st=2012-07-02&en=2017-08-05&id=p29220262303&a=423239967

  29. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat
    Now “THAT” is a nice looking Symmetrical Triangle. And it’s at the the critical 3/4 point mark in the pattern that typically sees price breakout as well and is at support in the pattern. A breakout would project a rally to 4.75. Also good support at 2.50 even on a breakdown so one could exit there and a bounce back with a small loss. Too bad this is NG which is a very erratic commodity with many influences.

  30. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC
    Nat Gas seasonally turns positive early September.
    http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/futures/FUTURE_NG1.PNG

  31. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat
    Here is a Daily chart of $NATGAS. The uptrendline part of the triangle is not very steep like the downtrend line is, and technicals of the oscillators are weak and look threatening. A break below 2.75 would suggest a test of $2.50 where there is solid price support. And since mid May price has been having lower highs and lower lows. I would wait for a test of $2.50 to occur before jumping on. And with a stop below $2.50 at your comfort level. Or a break above the downtrendline. NG is a wild card at the best of times. And as you suggested September is the strong seasonal trend time and it’s only early August now.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NATGAS&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17430418059&a=538140339

  32. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC #31
    Looks like a H&S pattern to me. Always appreciate your charts and thanks for all the info you pass along.

  33. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Thanks. And yes there is a bearish H&S pattern as well with price right on the neckline. But there is also solid support at $2.50. I would just let the chart play out as it has many possibilities especially being Nat Gas. It would not be unusual to see price pullback to $2.50 support and fail to follow through further and then rally. It would be worth a buy at that support price with a stop below.I’ve avoided NG due to its erratic nature and one would need to trade the futures market to make it worth while. Perhaps some NG stocks or ETFs might be a better bet. There is a strong seasonal trend in September as FishFat mentioned. That ‘should’ have an effect.

  34. kam Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Natty,
    Does that triangle break to the downside also means we could go to 2016 lows of 1.60?
    I don’t have much knowledge of this but think one draws a parallel line towards lows.

  35. dutchcanuck Says:

    Nat Gas
    Yes, kam if the neckline breaks we could go down to about 1.60 or slightly above measured from the upsloping neckline. NatGas is hard to trade, one school says we are exporting more and more LNG and the other says we are once again building inventory as we have had a very cool summer in NA. I would play it from the short side as that is where I have made most of my moolah ytd.
    Potential pair trade would be long oil and short natty.

  36. Ron/BC Says:

    Kam
    Nat Gas trades much like the grains that are depended on weather. With the grains its all about rain and with NG all about the heat or cold. Bottom line: It’s a basket case to trade when you look at a chart. Not all H&S patterns follow through,especially with NG. See the 2009-2010 pattern. In fact it’s hard to even put on a trendline on NG that is respected. Something that has been very consistent with nat gas over the last 10 years is its respect for the $2.50 price level. It has served as support when price is above and as resistance when price is below very consistently over time. So I’d buy it at $2.50 if I had a gun to my head,lol. Or a breakout over its downtrendline could be profitable. There are better fish to fry though.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NATGAS&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11774053473&a=243758239

TopOfBlogs Finance Blogs
Entries RSS Comments RSS Log in