Tech Talk for Wednesday August 9th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday August 9th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. The S&P 500 Index dropped 11 points in pre-opening trade. Futures are responding to growing political tensions following comments by North Korea about selecting Quam as a potential nuclear bomb target.

The Nikkei Average quickly responded to the threat. The Nikkei Average dropped 257.30 points to 19,738.71, breaking support at 19,864.65 and setting a new intermediate downtrend.

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The Canadian Dollar slipped U.S. 0.13 cents despite release of an encouraging July Housing Start report. Consensus was a drop to 205,000 units in July versus 213,217 units in June. Actual was 222,000 units.

Quarterly reports continue to pour in. Reports released since yesterday’s close included Hertz, Lions Gate, Monster Beverages, Priceline, TripAdvisor, Walt Disney, Wendy’s and Zillow.

Disney, a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock plunged $5.33 to $101.65 after reporting lower than consensus quarterly revenues. The stock is expected to open below support at $102.41, setting a new intermediate downtrend

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Macy’s fell $0.20 to $23.32 after UBS lowered its target price to $26 from $34.

Kohl’s dropped $0.36 to $42.46 after UBS lowered its target price to $38 from $26.

General Electric eased $0.07 to $25.49 after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to Sell.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/08/08/stock-market-outlook-for-august-9-2017/

Note seasonality charts on MSCI World ex U.S. , Job Openings and the Household Products Industry.

Observations

OOOOPs! U.S. equity indices moved higher until approximately noon yesterday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index moving to all-time highs. Then, a Washington Post article reported than North Korea is close to capability of placing a small nuclear weapon on top of an ICBM. In addition, President Trump added to North Korea’s recent threatening rhetoric by issuing a warning to North Korea. North American equity markets quickly came under profit taking pressures. The equally weighted S&P 500 Index and its related ETF dropped below their 50 day moving average. In addition, the VIX Index spiked and precious metal prices and related ETFs moved higher.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Markets on the move following strong employment reports in Canada and the U.S. See

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/08/06/stock-market-outlook-for-august-8-2017/

Russian ETF $RUS moved above $20.36 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Oil Services ETF $OIH moved below $$23.63 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Bearish. Breakout: $AES. Breakdowns: $EXPE, $MNK $ZTS $CMG

Editor’s Note: After 10:15 AM EDT, breakouts included BAC, JPM, CNP, BMY, FL. Breakdowns included HAL, ZBH and MOS.

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JP Morgan $JPM, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $94.51 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Power Corp POW.CA moved above $30.79 extending an intermediate uptrend

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Power Financial $PWF.CA moved above $34.32 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Leveraged zinc ETN $LZIC.L moved above $8.68 extending uptrend. Zinc stocks followed: $HBM.CA

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Editor’s Note: In addition to higher zinc prices, copper, aluminum, nickel prices and their related ETNs virtually exploded to the upside

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Homebuilders SPDRs $XHB moved above $39.22 to a 10 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Pembina Pipelines $PPL.CA moved below $42.02 setting intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 8th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 8th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 8th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

WAIS Conference in Niagara Falls

on September 13-15th

Mr. Vialoux is attending the WAIS conference. Following is information

image

 

Presented by:

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“WAIS Canada is Canada’s premier alternative investment event when it comes to the scope, depth and breadth of its attendees, be it hedge fund managers, exempt market product providers and dealers, investors, advisors, financiers, service providers or other industry experts.”

 

 

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped another 4.61 to 58.12 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 0.19 to 45.19 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and is rolling over.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



25 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday August 9th 2017”

  1. Tawny Says:

    Sherri

    Hola. Wonder if you could share Armstrong private on August and turning point. Would be so appreciated. BTW, did you ever go to one of the conferences?

  2. NRG Says:

    VNR. Valener

    Increased dividend 3.6% today. Dividend now 5.03%. Long term holder of this stock.

  3. Sherri Says:

    Tawny
    Never been to a conference of his, just seen him on video conferencing at the World Outlook here in Vancouver every Jan/Feb.

    Lots of charts that I can’t show you but here’s the jist:

    “We have reach the target period of August. In Hong Kong, I stated August appeared to be where “something” would unfold. War certainly cyclically favors August for some reason. Beware that August 9th is a turning point on our daily models both in the Dow and the S&P500.”

    “In the S&P500 Socrates wrote today:

    S&P 500 Cash Index UPDATED AS OF THE CLOSE OF Tue. Aug. 8, 2017: This market has been making a new historical high this month on Tue. 8th at 249087. Closing support on a weekly basis now lies at 241200. A weekly closing below this level will signal a short-term correction is beginning. From a technical trading risk perspective, long positions should be exited if this level is broken on a weekly closing basis.

    In the DOW, it wrote today:

    Dow Jones Industrials FORECASTING ANALYSIS FOR CLOSE OF Tue. Aug. 8, 2017: This market has been making a new historical high this month on Tue. 8th at 2217911. Closing support on a weekly basis now lies at 2127900. A weekly closing below this level will signal a short-term correction is beginning. From a technical trading risk perspective, long positions should be exited if this level is broken on a weekly closing basis. ”

    “August has been the target for a turning point all year. We have just arrived. Whether the events in North Korea play into this remains to be seen. However, the targets for confrontations with North Korea will be this coming weekend August 12/13th then September 11/12th.

    In the Dow, we must watch 21965 intraday and 21980 on a close.The trading cycle was due the 8th and the Panic Cycle was also due the 8th. We achieved that Panic Cycle since it was an outside reversal to the downside. Panic Cycles reflect big moves or outside reversals. This is distinguished from just volatility, which need not produce an outside reversal.

    So stay on guard, we may be in for a one-month correction into September than look at October with big volatility coming down.

    We will do more updates here for clients for this move.”

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    A lot of reading of the tea leaves. I think most technical analysis reports over the past three months citing resistance levels, overbought conditions, roll over of technical indicators etc etc have been proven wrong if you go back and review them. Today the SP500 has collapsed 0.20% on some sabre rattling. I will save everyone a lot of time and effort by simply saying that September is a bad month.

  5. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    I am wondering if you could comment on trendlines, specifically, on ECA.TO. I have the same trendline extending from the top ~ 18.13 earlier this year and moving down through the same price points: 16.40, 16.00, yet your line currently bissects ~ 13.5, whereas mine is more like 14.20. I did draw these lines some time ago, before seeing your chart. Does the difference have something to do with the scale? Does it really matter? I have been drawing areas of support and resistance (learning from Arthur Hill on stockcharts), rather than lines. I always question angled trendlines rather than support and resistance b/c these are artifical, rather than where prices actually stopped. I believe you agree with this concept. Still, trendlines do help when there is a trend. Thanks.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ECA.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p13441044598&a=538774777

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    I know what you are dealing with and it can be frustrating at times. What you have done is drawn angled lines down from the high bar to the lower high points on each bar which is correct. And often that works well and I often start with that and leave it. But keep in mind those high points were created by short covering and dumb money buying at highs etc much of the time and do not reflect the true downtrend. Experts in the subject of technical analysis say “Amateurs determine the opening prices and professionals determine the closing prices.” And in the middle is everyone else buying,selling and bouncing off the walls with open orders etc with every new scrap of news they react to. So to get the best angled line switch the OHLC bar chart to a Line Chart which are closing prices only. Draw your line across those closing highs on your line chart downtrend. Then once that line is set change the chart bars back to OHLC. I have done that with this chart of ECA.to so you can see. And yes angled lines are not actual support and resistance prices but simply a ‘rate of decline’ or ‘rate of incline’. But most stock & commodity trading by far is based on technical analysis today and traders will buy and sell at those angled lines of support and resistance. Actual support and resistance lines that are determined by horizontal lines are best as that’s where buyers and sellers will react and breakouts and breakdowns tend to see follow through in that direction. So when the angled lines AND even the horizontal lines are questionable switch to a line chart and draw them and then switch back to OHLC bars. You’ll see a more realistic picture then. Note the false breakdown on this chart that reversed quickly. Support now is $11.50 with resistance at $13.50. NG seasonality coming up in September too but not on top of the correlation between the commodity and the NG related stocks as they differ a lot. I’ve got the oscillator buy signals marked on this chart with vertical dotted lines so ignore this regarding angled and horizontal lines. I do find them helpful so like them on a chart.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ECA.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47661494739&a=479508639

    http://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart

  7. Tawny Says:

    Sherri
    #3 – thank you so much for this post… don’t know how you get the info – doesn’t matter – just so grateful you pass it on. I have been taking profits and losses – not much, TG for the past couple of weeks. Bad time of year and I am wanting to reduce stress and time spent on investments. So, I am taking a couple more profits and will be in cash until October, I guess. If market goes up – that’s fine… I can buy higher… as Ron pointed out it is done all the time.

    I did make one purchase – accidentally came across ACB.to announcement from venture to TSE and I saw a very nice cup and handle pattern – could not resist a buy/try. It did well yesterday in spite of market weakness but not sure it will succeed against a correction.

  8. Sandra Says:

    Paula Re: 6. Thanks for asking the question.

    Ron/BC: Thanks for the explanation on ECA.TO !
    Ron, I would like to buy FM.TO when copper becomes bullish in the meantime can you share a chart like ECA.TO. Thanks!
    Feel free to comment on mine.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FM.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40298593837&a=538797588

  9. polish1 Says:

    Financial Crisis Began 10 years ago today
    On this day 10 years ago, money markets started to seize up as BNP Paribas closed three funds linked to US mortgages, requiring heavily-coordinated central bank action that launched an extraordinary period of central bank activity that is still in full swing today.
    The SPX hit a high of 1503.89 that day (8-9-07) and then fell back to an intra-day low of 1370.60 on 8-17-07 before starting an ECB/Central Bank fueled rally that carried it to a then all time peak on 1576.09 on Oct 11th – some 16 months later the SPX would bottom at 666.79 on 3-5-09 – a 57.69% decline. It would then take until 4-10-13 to surpass that 1576 peak once again.
    Not counting dividends, the current SPX level of 2470 this morning means that the SPX has averaged 5.0867% a year over the last 10 years. With dividends CNBC reported this morning that this 10 year annualized return was over 7+% a year. The commentators used this data to once again pronounce that investors need to just “hang in there” as this 10 year period again proves that “the market always comes back”. According to these ‘experts” trying to go in and out of the market just doesn’t work.
    I would suggest that there are very few “investors” who could psychologically take a 57% hit to their account, and would “just hang in there” and have enough faith to wait 4 years for the market to break even again.

  10. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC and Dutchcanuck.
    FYI – I replied to your comments last night.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    Copper is already bullish as it broke out over its downtrendline plus cleared 1st resistance at $2.40 last November. Price is now bumping up against 2.95 resistance. FM.to does track Copper fairly well but has a much higher beta meaning higher highs and lower lows on the rallies and selloffs. Your horizontal support lines are ok. Your angled lines under the oscillators shouldn’t be there as there is no positive divergence on price as the rising line under them suggests. You would need to see a lower price low and a higher oscillator low to see a positive divergence on the oscillators. The 2nd chart is FM.to. Price needs to hold above the $12.90 breakout point but is looking good now. I always like to see the oscilltors pullback to the signal line when price pulls back to support. Not really seeing that here but price has not pulled all the way back yet….and it might not either. “OR” price along with the broad market may selloff and you’ll see price breakdown below $12.90 which then I would exit if long.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=D&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85108650814&a=484644368

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FM.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69491723798&a=533126174

  12. Sandra Says:

    Anyone buying GOLD or silver shares?

  13. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC:

    1st impression….your charts make me dizzy!!!!!!!

    OK now I will read them. Thanks!

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Polish1
    Very good point. I recall that big selloff in 2008 and many other bear markets before that. And as you pointed out very few I knew could mentally handle plunging prices with the value of their stock accounts plunging every month. And then just to totally convince them to bail out many stocks went right off the board including large brand named stocks like GM,Enron,Nortel and many others like it. And if they could handle the selloff that never seemed to end their spouses flipped out on them and told them to exit everything and if nothing else put the money into the kids education fund and stop being so stubborn and self centered. This occurs over and over again just like the movie Groundhog Day. It will happen again too as prices always go beyond reality and then sells off for a year or so wiping out all the excess and then some to the point of being under valued once again. There is theory and reality and reality always wins out.

  15. Mick/NV Says:

    CNR.to which recently dropped approx 10% from its July high, looks like it is starting to claw it’s way back. Yesterday, closed above the main pivot point resistance, and for the moment that new support level appears to be holding, will see what happens at the close. The stock is up around 13% ytd , 147% over the past 5 years and a dividend that has been increasing each year for the past 20+. Missed adding when price dropped to the $98 level,would like to see it drop to that level again before buying more.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNR.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p60141330383&a=450854173

  16. dutchcanuck Says:

    Bernie
    Are you hibernating during the summer also?
    Miss your friendly face around here.
    I know it’s golf and football season. Butttt
    Pipelines are selling off here. The anti forces keep flexing their muscles and seem to be having quite an impact. How are you handling this? Just sitting with what you have?

  17. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Thanks so much for the explanation. Of course – using closing prices is the key. That explains why my angles are different.
    Really appreciate your time and effort.

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    The Gold stock ETF:XGD.to broke down below $12.25 which was the flat base of a bearish Descending Triangle. Price has consolidated just below this breakdown level for a month now and is presently bumping up against this $12.25 breakdown point resistance. Price needs to clear and hold above $12.25 to suggest a rally to $13.00 resistance and downtrendline.

    The $GOLD ETF:GLD is bumping up against its one year downtrendline with plenty of price resistance above at $123 and $124. Price needs to clear these levels to expect some fireworks on the upside.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p77347994066&a=475523461

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44328309023&a=469156500

  19. Mick/NV Says:

    Here is a chart of fts.to from around 2006 to today, during the 2008-09 period, the stock dropped approx 30%, not only did it keep paying it’s dividend, but increased it.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTS.TO&p=D&st=2005-0801&en=today&id=p44236947816&a=443111650

    Since the beginning of 2008, the stock is up 120%, well ahead of the TSX and even the S&P

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTS.TO&p=D&st=2008-01-01&en=today&id=p83497117769

    Similar can be said of other stocks. It comes down to knowing what you own , not all stocks perform the same.

  20. Bernie Says:

    dutch,

    Re: #16
    I’ve actually been hibernating, or at least have been passive all year. I’ve haven’t bought or sold a stock in quite a while but am still adding monthly to my defensive mutual fund “BMO Tactical Dividend ETF D”. Its a steady eddy that pays close to a 4% yield. Its up 5.3% YTD. My 5 pipe stocks are down an average -7.8%. I’m not concerned so long as they continue to increase or maintain their dividends. I haven’t posted lately because I haven’t really had much to add to the conversation. As for football and golf, my CFL team is undefeated so far and I’m happy with my links play 🙂 What everyone is praying for around here is some rain. Its been calm, +30 for highs (as high as +41), dry and smoky for over a month now.

  21. Wayne Says:

    Sandra,
    Just noticed your post.
    Bot SLV @ 15.06 on Aug 12.

  22. Wayne Says:

    Sandra,
    Yikes.. I mean July 12. I was stopped out last Friday after the NFP report – back in on the 8th @ 15.56.
    Also short the Loonie from 79.57

  23. Neil/Ab Says:

    So after today it looks like I’m no longer overweight Kinaxis. LOL.

  24. Neil/Ab Says:

    Bernie, mi amigo (if I may be so bold)
    So where do you golf in Nelson? Are there some good courses? I played Kokanee Springs a number of years ago (kind of a strange course as I recall it) but I think that is quite a ways from where you are. At least a ferry ride. I’m sure there is a good muni in Nelson, just never got there.
    Just trying to awaken you from your hibernation though I think I understand where you’re coming from. I’ve done nothing but work this whole year – landscaping one property, renovating another. The only thing I’ve come to enjoy is sleep. I wish it could last forever. All that keeps me going is knowing that, given my lifestyle, forever sleep can’t be far away. LOL.

  25. polish1 Says:

    This is now 16 days of SPX closes, 3 weeks and 1 day, never in history. 2473 2473 2472 2470 2477 2477 2475 2472 2470 2476 2477 2472 2476 2480 2474 2473

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