Tech Talk for Thursday August 10th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday August 10th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures dropped 10 points in pre-opening trade. Uncertainties related to North Korea continue to rise. The S&P 500 Index is expected to open below short term support at 2,465 and its 20 day moving average at 2,471.

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Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for weekly jobless claims was 241,000 versus 241,000 last week. Actual was 244,000. Consensus for July Producer Prices was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in June. Actual was a decline of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, consensus for July Producer Prices was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in June. Actual was a decline of 0.1%.

Disney slipped $0.32 to $102.51 after UBS lowered its target price to $126 from $130.

Ralph Lauren (RL $87.05) is expected to open higher after UBS raised its target price to $90 from $73.

Delta Airlines gained $0.18 to $49.85 after Barclays initiated coverage with an Overweight rating.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/08/09/stock-market-outlook-for-august-10-2017/

Note seasonality charts on General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply and Total Vehicle Sales

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Job openings record largest June increase on record while hires struggle. See

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/08/08/stock-market-outlook-for-august-9-2017/

Utilities SPDRs $XLU moved above $54.22 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Finning International $FTT.CA moved above $27.62 to a 3 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Martinrea $MRE.CA moved above $10.85 on better than expected eps.

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United Technologies $UTX completed a modified Head & Shoulders pattern on a move below $117.85.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. No breakouts. Breakdowns: $DIS $TRIP $MMC $AGN $MAS $UTX

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included HD, LLL, IFF and XEC. Breakdowns included ESRX, SCHW and ADS.

Interfor $IFP.CA moved above $20.34 to a 2 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Franco-Nevada $FNV, a TSX 60 stock moved above $76.03 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Husky Energy $HSE.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $14.84 completing a base building pattern.

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Junior gold producer stocks are responding to higher gold prices e.g. $SMF.CA

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 9th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 9th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 9th 2017

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Red: Decrease from previous day

Green: Increase from previous day

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 0.80 to 57.31 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 0.42 to 45.61 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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21 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday August 10th 2017”

  1. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on the DOW

    “So far this was the week where a turning point was likely and that high took place in a spectacular outside reversal right on schedule with the Panic Cycle for this week on the 8th. Here is the technical channel and we can see that we have fallen back to retest it from above. This pattern warns clearly that it is now absolutely PARAMOUNT that the Dow score new highs and then it would test the 23000 level – or second target we projected from the 2009 low.

    However, breaking back below that channel will imply that we have a temporary high in place and we can get a decline into September. The technical support at the top of the channel is 21987 right now. We still should watch 21965 intraday and 21980 on a closing basis. We can close below 21980 yet hold 21965 or penetrate 21965 and then close below 21980.

    Technical resistance today starts at 22090 and to signal a resumption of the uptrend we need to close above 22125. Here is the Weekly Array. Seasonally, corrections like to come around Labor Day – the week of September 4th. So let’s stay on point here. Our info is that retail is starting to reopen accounts with brokers at last but are still mostly on the sidelines.”

  2. Tawny Says:

    Sherri,
    Thanks so much for #1 posting! Grateful.

  3. Ana Says:

    $SPX

    Might be going up here to build the small right shoulder.

    In wave counts up for iv. Maybe

  4. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on GOLD:

    Models on North Korea suggest this may come to a head this weekend. Gold must close ABOVE 1284.20 on Friday (tomorrow) or it will turn back down. Weekly bullish target 1338.40 so we’re still a long way away from confirming a new bull market. Monthly bullish still 1362. Bottom line no major change in trend, YET!

  5. Sandra Says:

    Wayne:

    SLV great chart. You had a good entry point too. Well done. Looks overbought now.
    Will keep an eye on it. Good one to trade.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    For those looking for a Gold Stock trade the XGD.to broke down below a bearish Descending Triangle at the flat bottom of the pattern being $12.25 and after spending about a month below in a tight rising pattern has broken back above $12.25 resistance ‘intraday’. “IF” price holds above this $12.25 resistance level it would suggest a rally to $13 price resistance and downtrendline for starters. The open price was above this level and what is needed is a close above as well to suggest a reversal back up again. A breakdown that doesn’t follow through lower and reverses back up over the breakdown point is very bullish. Recall the CD$ that broke below 72.50 and reversed. False breakdowns with no follow through and reverse back up again ‘catch’ short sellers with their pants down and tend to rally sharply with short covering and smart money chasing them along. Still early in the day presently but as long as price can hold “above $12.25 on the close” this would suggest at the least a rally to $13 resistance. That’s what the chart is suggesting to me in any case. Gold stocks are still underperforming Gold and Silver is also underperforming Gold so no major signal yet for a change in ‘trend’ in precious metals. But it doesn’t mean you can’t make a buck on a trade………….And in the end it’s all about making a buck any way you can.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p67427634970&a=475523461

  7. Sherri Says:

    #6 Ron/BC
    Amen to that!! Thanks for the great charts, as always. I’m happy today as I made some good moolah on my T.HVU trade Probably sold too early but I won’t be here to monitor the rest of the day so took my profits and ran! Always another day, hey? Plus it’s so volatile it’s a bit unnerving.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    Good for you and conrats! Nothing wrong with stuffing your pockets with some cash. And the market is always there to get on board. If prices doubled from here all the investors and traders would be buying at those doubled prices and adding on the pullbacks. Or if the market sold off and was cut in half they’d be doing the same thing. Just like they’ve been doing since the 2009 lows with the big rallies and big selloffs in the various sectors. Nothing ever changes. So take what you can get when it’s on the table for the taking. It’s a great feeling to make some cash and walk away. And when you are flat you can see things more clearly without the bias or ego clouding your judgement. What is also important is to take that profit and spend it on yourself now and again so you can reap the rewards of your efforts and actually see and feel a tangible reward. Then look around for another buy that has high odds of success without any pressure.

  9. Ana Says:

    $SPX

    Might be finished wave v here.

    So working on the small right shoulder, about 2460ish.

  10. kam Says:

    Ana,

    You must be having a ball trading UVXY today 🙂

    Sherri,

    I think I posted this before but Armstrong includes wave counts and pivot points in his weird, confusing writing style, lol. One reason I don’t pay much attention cause he doesn’t talk about SPX much which is the real market. DJIA is a basket of 30 stocks and usually divert from SPX if one big one like apple keeps it floating.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    Here is a chart of HVU.to. I’ve been waiting for it to clear $11 and it did yesterday but I didn’t like the close (waaaaaaaaaaay too fussy) Big jump up today right through $12.38 resistance. But it is a wild one to trade. Time to watch HVI.to perhaps.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVU.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p39474821809&a=388475769

  12. Ana Says:

    #10. kam,

    Yes, wild time trading hvu.to. Trading on a one minute and five minute chart.

    The five minute chart just crossed up. Watching the hvu.to to see if we complete a H&S.

  13. kam Says:

    Hi Folks,

    SPX outlook.

    EW have it so far on the nose. I posted what I knew here a couple of days ago when the minimum target of 2487 was met to finish off wave 3. So far so good.
    I hope most traders here atleast kept it in their mind that along with technical and seasonality, EW theory and sentiments also play big roll in the trading world.
    One can say that reason behind this drop is the call from Trump to NKorea but that might be a catalyst, not the cause.

    Another thing which was still considered that last time spx dropped, it didn’t hit 2455 for the iv target so there was a possibility that once we hit it then v of 3 wave might be heading to 2487-2500. So there is a good chance that this is iv only and we head higher. However once 2450 is breached, and a sustained break below 2440 comes, EW considers that is all wave 3 ‘she wrote’.

    If somehow this market move up and go past 2525 then we have to reconsider. All probabilities as you know. I don’t have any certainty like some traders do that they want to sell their stock at the price they decide. I let market decide my selling price. Usually, those ones sell at the market bottom when pain is extreme. Been there done that 😉

    But keep in mind this thing can’t travel straight towards target of 2300- 2360, otherwise, we can get there by early next week at this speed. there will be ups and downs,abc extra. So if you are holding puts, keep moving further with profits or getting in and out. I will try to post what I will find out.

    I had SVXY,qqq spx puts and vxx call spread ( buy $14 and sell 20). I closed some svxy and qqq puts today for a quick cash and rolled some others into further ones with the newly printed bitcoins, lol.

  14. kam Says:

    Re-VIX

    One thing which sometimes volatility traders don’t consider is that with VIX close to 10 lately, A nominal spike of only $4-5(40-50% that is) in VIX will severely effect XIV HVI.to etc like it did a couple of times in last two months when they fell 15-18% intra day. It is another thing they came back. Now is the same thing too.
    If that same spike of $4-5 comes at VIX being 20 that is only 20-25% spike which won’t effect XIV, HVI.to that much. The more the VIX close to 10-11 the bigger the spike and as XIV is reset everyday, it will move high % with future curve being pushed up too with vix up.
    Later. Lets see if BTFD bots come in today too.

  15. Sandra Says:

    Good job Sherri! Congrats .

  16. Bernie Says:

    Neil/Ab,

    Re: #24 from last night
    I have a membership at Granite Pointe Golf Club in Nelson. Its a beauty, the only course in town and is only a hop, skip & jump from our home. Other courses within a 30 minute drive are the those in Balfour and Castlegar. I’ve played Kokanee Springs several times but not since 2006 when my ex and I took in the 5 day golf school there. The course is about 85 minutes away, including a 40 minute ferry ride across Kootenay Lake.

    I’ve never been into landscaping or renos, especially in retirement. I much prefer sleep and relaxation…smelling the coffee so to speak. I figure I’ve earned it after spending several decades in the work force. Hope you’re enjoying your “work” in retirement but do take the time now and then to relax. Life is short! Good to hear from you Amigo!

  17. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: Your “great day on the golf course” the other day

    I meant to to ask you about it but forgot. Please explain!

    I found it quite remarkable yesterday during seniors play when the subject of “holes-in-one” came up within our threesome. It turns out each of us had at least one in our lifetime. Mine was in 1999.

  18. Neil/Ab Says:

    Bernie
    I went to the Granite Pointe websight and, you’re right, it looks like a beauty. Does your wife golf? Just thinking that maybe next year on one of our sojourns back and forth between Edmonton and the island we could do the far south route so that we could maybe ‘tee it up’ with you.

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    NTR
    Good to hear you are enjoying life in retirement and enjoying golfing. It’s still smokey here as well as the interior of B.C. Getting tired of the heat too as I never did like it hot and get dehydrated easily. I guess I’m a few decades away from a hole in one. I’ve wished there was a video the odd time I’ve got a birdie. The other day I had 3 par threes and was happy with that. I’m getting good at driving to or close to the green but the chipping onto it is an issue. I don’t find chipping to be very exact in distance to the flag even for others that ‘seem’ to know what they are doing. But it’s the putting I’m trying to get a firm handle on. I’m going to try a left handed putter as I do several things left handed so might be the ticket. Plus I can turn my head to the right much easier than to the left due to arthritis. And using a left hand low with the left handed putter might be a good fit. Guess I’ll try it for free at Golf Town 1st before buying another putter. Meanwhile I do love my 7 iron. Instead of switching irons all the time I just adjust the tee height for distance and swing the same each time. Short distance I use a high tee so the momentum (not rsi,lol) is straight up and down.Longer distance shorter tee and very long distance a short tee. It works well when driving a distance that doesn’t require an actual driver and I get to know my 7 iron better for control rather than switching all the time. I do use my 9 iron instead of the pitching iron when pitching onto the green as we get along better.

  20. Bernie Says:

    Neil/Ab,

    Re: #18
    My wife had a few lessons but isn’t really into playing anything more than putt putt. Golf just isn’t her thing. That said, it’d be great to see you and tee it up should you make it out this way.

  21. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #19
    A hole-in-one is far more luck than skill. I know a lot of very good golfers who have never had the good fortune to can their tee shot. For sure skill helps to get the ball close to the hole but luck dictates the rest.

    You might be on to something with your idea of using a left handed putter, especially considering your limitations with arthritis. Have you considered using a blade putter that can be used right or left handed? I’m sure you could find a decent experienced one in the used section or at second hand venues.

    I’m not sure if I understand the use of your 7 iron for varying distances using different tee heights. Hopefully you’re not hitting it harder or softer as well depending on the distance. Its best to execute the same swing speed on all golf shots unless you’re closer than wedge range or hitting it out of the rough.

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