Tech Talk for Friday August 11th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 11th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Index futures recovered slightly following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for July Consumer Prices was an increase of 0.2% versus no change in June. Actual was an increase of 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, CPI was up 1.7%. Excluding food and energy, consensus for July Consumer Prices was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.1%.

JC Penney dropped $1.08 to an all-time low at $3.63 after reporting a larger than expected second quarter loss.

Nvidia dropped $11.94 to $152.80 despite SunTrust, Raymond James and JP Morgan raising their target price.

Nordstrom gained $0.13 to $45.00 after reporting better than consensus second quarter results.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/08/10/stock-market-outlook-for-august-11-2017/

See seasonality charts on the S&P 500 Index and the VIX Index

 

Observations

Concerns about North Korea continued to roil equity markets around the world yesterday:

The VIX Index soared.

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Ditto for gold and gold equities!

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The S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index dropped below their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

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The Russell 2000 Index already has dropped 5.5% from its high two weeks ago.

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International equity markets also responded, notably the Nikkei Average

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

More gold and silver stocks completing short term base building patterns $PAAS $YRI.CA

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South Korea iShares $EWY moved below support at $66.54.

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Keyera $KEY.CA moved below $37.05 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Breakout: $PRGO. Breakdowns: $JWN, $TIF $WYN $A $PNR $SRCL $SWK

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, one breakout: NRG. Breakdowns included ORCL, CELG, RHI, WRK, M, CBG, CMA, HBAN, CFG, LUV, SIG, BLL, ALK, STX, BK, JNPR and LUV.

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NASDAQ Biotech iShares $IBB moved below $308.49 completing a double top pattern.

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Grain ETN $JJG moved below $26.81 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Editor’s Note: CORN led the drop.

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Healthcare SPDRs $XLV moved below $78.58 completing a double top pattern.

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Another Biotech ETF $FBT moved below support completing a double top pattern.

Editor’s Note: Add $BBH to the list

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Trader’s Corner

Short and medium term technical indicators for a wide variety of equity markets and related ETFs recorded significant weakness.

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 10th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 10th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 10th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer plunged 12.63 to 44.69 yesterday. It has dropped to a neutral level, but has yet to show signs of stopping its downtrend.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 4.60 to 41.00 yesterday. It remains in a neutral level and continues to trend down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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30 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday August 11th 2017”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    NTR
    Never heard of a blade putter. Definitely sounds like a putter I could use. I’ve always had an unusual way of using equipment that defied logic,lol. Even shooting hand guns in competition. I always try to think outside the box and try a wide variety of techniques until I come up with a combination of things that work for my body style, flexibility, vision and all other factors. But adjusting the tee height works well. A high tee with the 7 iron will see the same amount of momentum with ball only it goes much higher and drops straight down. A lower tee will see lower height and more distance and a short tee lower height again with more distance again. Same swing and momentum. But even with a driver the tee height is important from what I’ve found. But using the 7 iron mainly gives me more experience and consistency with that one club rather than changing clubs with various pitches etc all the time. Had to laugh the other day as I found a pitching wedge just inside the water pond. Fished it out and threw it back in,lol. Looks like it’s cooling off somewhat here in Victoria which would be a nice change back to normal.

  2. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    NTR
    It appears it will be cooling off here as well. The Nelson forecast calls for highs in the mid to high 20’s for the next 7 days with a 40% to 60% chance of showers from Sun to Tues.

    By blade putter I mean a flat blade shaped the same on both sides, much like this one for example:
    http://www.discountgolfworld.com/scotty-cameron-by-titleist-american-classic-iii-p2223

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    The major Gold stock ETF:GDX bounced back to its downtrendline and stalled out and is presently trading at the lows of the day. Still not impressive price action. And $GOLD still hasn’t cleared AND held above $1300. Both need to do this to suggest a reversal back to up again. And even then Gold has a lot of resistance to chew through just above. The $GOLD ETF:GLD needs to clear $123 which is price resistance and it’s multi year downtrendline and even then has to deal with the 2016 high of $131 resistance. Lots of work to do for both to suggest a major reversal. Not much signalling a change in trend so far. But perhaps it’s time to start holding our breath………………

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p97764925305&a=473653999

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12979290381&a=237305293

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie

    NTR
    Oddly enough I bought a putter like that at a thrift shop a year ago and has Campbell Canada on the bottom of the blade. Never did use it other than on the driving range green a couple of times. Also bought an Odyssey Duel Force Rossie 2 and had big grips put on it. Too heavy and clunky for my liking. Might be worth spending some time with the flat bladed Campbell along with trying a left handed putter at Golf Town. I read and believe it that the green is what it’s all about even though everyone at the range ignores the practice green and is busy blasting balls to the moon with their $500 drivers. I guess it’s just a guy thing…………..

  5. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #4
    NTR
    Yep, the most strokes are usually taken on and around the green. Someone should open a driving range and name it “Testosterone R-Us” for effect lol.

  6. Vik Says:

    Thanks for the GOLD notes RON/BC.

    Been keeping an eye out to see how gold stocks play out.

    Many of the gold stocks have pulled back today or at least applied the breaks. Others like TECK and some copper stocks are going up. Is this because people are rolling their money out of Golds and into some of these commodity/copper related players?

    Thanks + have a good weekend everyone

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Vik
    If Gold was going to rally strongly on present politics it would have already and everyone would be chasing it as it never waits for everyone to get on board. Never know about the “why”,just what is. Have to accept the reality of the price charts telling you the “what” and how much. The U.S.$ is always the key to commodity based markets and price must hold above 92 major support or we’ll have another rip roaring commodity bull market from what I see. With Trump wanting a low U.S.$ for manufacturing and exporting advantages a break below 92 would not surprise me. But the U.S.$ chart is doing what was expected of it and so far is respecting 92 support and bouncing back. It will tell the story best.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Canadian Banks continue their selloff after a bounce back off their May/June lows to lower highs. Prices are now dropping below their most recent pull back low. Prices must hold above the June lows or a more serious selloff will occur down to their long term price supports and uptrendlines which are much lower. Some are already oversold and the seasonal trend in September is bullish according to Equity Clock. The charts of the CD banks look much better on the NYSE. A CD bank stock that has pulled back to price support is CWB.to with its pullback to the breakout point of $28. (Would not want to see a close below this level.)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CM.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p82452162082&a=515744251

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CWB.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p03178947461&a=434246517

  9. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC: #7

    “price must hold above 92 major support or we’ll have another rip roaring commodity bull market”.
    Can you please explain this further please? Thanks!

    TECK/B.TO
    I am watching this stock to buy to trade. It has not fallen as much as other material stocks. Where do you see support for this stock? Thanks 🙂

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    TECK/B.to has support at the breakout point of $26. “IF” that doesn’t hold up as support then you could see $19 again. Not likely to occur but technically that would be typical if price fails to hold at $26. As far as the U.S.$ needing to hold at 92 goes that is a major price support that had served as resistance for many years until its breakout in early 2015. Price cleared that level and has held above since then and is in a 12 point trading channel ever since. Every commodity is price in U.S.$ as it is the world’s reserve currency. So a breakdown in the U.S.$ would see prices of most commodities and other currencies rally. I realize it is a complex issue and I don’t have answers for what a breakdown would do to all markets. But it would be a major change in many markets and that I am sure of.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TECK%2FB.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24549413584&a=491071783

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81110621194&a=388965041

  11. Mick/NV Says:

    Was able to pick up some wsp.to yesterday as it dropped below the s1 pivot point support, dropped a bit further this morning but has recovered nicely. Just reported , thought earnings were inline so not sure why the drop but to my benefit as I think it was a good entry point. Red elder bar suggest selling pressure still exists but a close and hold above the s1 pivot point would be a positive.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WSP.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p18878626676&a=386213518

  12. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC: Thanks for all the charts and explanations.

    Everyone have a wonderful weekend.

  13. Bernie Says:

    dutch,

    Not sure if you caught this article:
    https://www.5iresearch.ca/blog/canadian-midstream-oil-gas-stocks-investing-industry-analysis

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Watch HVI.to and related trades Monday.

  15. Ron/BC Says:

    NTR
    Clear blue skies in Victoria again and can see the Olympic Mountains across the Juan de Fuca strait once again. Never know for sure in Victoria about what’s causing the gray skies as it’s often the same color light gray with the cloud cover. So it’s nice to see some blue sky for a change regardless. At least we know the smoke is gone now.

  16. Kam Says:

    Hi folks,

    Re- SPX update

    Going with the EWave , Elliotticians have a warning that we may see a crash-like event in market of 2%+ drop taking place to complete wave A of 4th but there is no time zone for it. Most likely within this month or close to end of it.Have your popcorn ready.

    I hoped that Thursday drop of 1.5% was it but sounded like that was not a “crash”

    As always, that doesn’t mean it is certainty but high probability. If anything else changes I will post.
    I hope I am not scaring bulls or acting like a full blown bear saying this. I am just trying to make some $$ and mostly trying to protect my gains as 4th wave are the worst ones to trade with all the whipsaws and can take away lots or gains from traders what they had made before. Doesn’t mean one sell or panic but have a plan to protect your gains so that Mr market don’t chew your rear-end and if someone wants to stay invested and buy more if market drops, then do nothing.

    Imo, I will just day trade this market and if it moves towards 2460-2475 area then will buy puts of QQQ, SVXY etc. I am not planning to hold VXX calls at the moment although I have some skin in the game(300 shares left from friday).
    Another thing I think is that if market cracks, Gold silver and GDX can pop too and along with some seasonality I am already in some stocks and options. Gold complex sounds like a good hedge too these days.

    I will appreciate( some other traders too I assume) anyone’s opinion so please post what else can be done in case we run into this scenario. Tia.

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Kam
    I don’t know what the market will do for sure but the VIXX chart bumped up against 14 resistance and has support at 12. A break above 14 will give you 16 and a pullback to 12 is likely to be a good buy (not good-bye). Odds favour some serious ugly ahead but it won’t likely happen until the market bounces back some first. Several markets are very oversold and I’m sure Mr. Market would love to get more investors and traders on board before it plunges again. A bounce back now would convince many all is well and to join the party again. Just don’t be the 1st mouse…………….

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p42254753953&a=539312702

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVI.TO&p=120&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p83116394578&a=538955475

  18. Muntazir Says:

    Congratulations Kam,

    I will admit I do not follow your trades closely esp vix instruments but I do hold qqq & you buying 140 oct/nov puts & selling them tells me you made some $$. I will try to read comments daily & time permitting will try to monitor your trades more closely & in real time ( I tend to read comments 1-2 times weekly)

  19. FishFat Says:

    The weekly chart of the Dow Jones closed with a Bearish Engulfing candlestick (arguably a Key Reversal Day). This does not mean the market is about to immediately topple, but it is sure not a confidence builder. Note there is also a flat MACD with negative divergence and the RSI(21) is very overbought.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&st=2014-11-03&en=today&id=p68608558909&a=420235557

  20. Tawny Says:

    Sherri

    Wondering if you have access to Armstrong Private Blog for the closing 8-11-2017 ?

  21. Sherri Says:

    Tawny

    Armstrong Gold:

    “We reported that we had three “Minor Weekly Bullish Reversals in gold at 1284.20, 1290.70 and 1298.90. Believe it of not, the precision of the market is once again revealed since this market closed on the 11th exactly at 1290.70. So while we elected the first minor, we closed precisely on the next. For a real breakout we needed a closing above 1298.90. While we can see some follow-through, the closure exactly on the Reversal is NOT an election. The market MUST close above.

    This amazing result warns that we are should not expect to see sustainable follow-through so caution is advisable for expectations of a breakout. Next week the Downtrend line stands at 1319.50. Support is now forming at 1242 and only a weekly closing back below 1220 will be an important sell signal at this time.The main target for a turning point will be the week of 09/04. We still see gold in a consolidation pattern just yet rather than a flight to safety.”

    DOW:

    “The technical resistance target for this week was 22,232.86 and we stopped at 22,179.11. Currently, the market is trading at the time of this post at 21,892.8. Our technical support for the close lies at 21,861.71. A close beneath that should signal follow through to the downside next week. We still see August as the turning point.”

    “Our war models interestingly picked this weekend, which we will go over at the upcoming Orlando WEC. The next target is September 11/12th. Curiously, we do see the potential for an August high and then a Waterfall after Labor Day. This may get the bears on foaming at the mouth claiming they were right all along despite missing the longest bull market of 101 months into August 2017. But what the heck – so they were a little off on their timing. If they cheer the demise is here, then it makes sense that we should have stopped shy of 23,000 creating a correction creating a giant bear trap and then flip the whole thing into a slingshot.

    So today, watch 21,861 for the close. Support is forming at the 21,490 level for next week. A closing below 21,661 will be a very weak signal in the Dow. If this week’s high holds, then a consolidation will be likely into the week of the 21st, a bounce back into Labor Day wee of September 4th, and then we have a potential for a panic to the downside to create a bear trap.”

    For the record, we closed BELOW support at 21858.32.

    Kam – Armstrong talks about the DOW because he says the DOW is where international money flows, but the S&P is more domestic, as far as who invests in it.

    Don’t shoot the messenger!

  22. dutchcanuck Says:

    Bernie #13
    Don’t know how you got a hold of this, but the article is just excellent.
    Thanks a lot for this.

  23. bruce morris Says:

    tuvm Sherri…much appreciated…..

  24. Kam Says:

    Sherri,
    Re- Armstrong

    Sorry, wasn’t intended towards you. Just my opinion on Armstrong writing style. I Should have better choice of words while writing that.

  25. Tawny Says:

    Sherri

    Thanks for Armstrong PB update… much appreciated

  26. Sherri Says:

    #24 Kam
    My “don’t shoot the messenger” comment wasn’t directed at you but everyone who reads my Armstrong post; those who like him and those who don’t! 🙂 Absolutely no worries!!!
    I’m not easily offended and wasn’t at all……….just thought I’d clarify my understanding of how Armstrong thinks.

    Happy trading 🙂

  27. Ana Says:

    #14. Ron/BC

    Thank you! I am thinking that any pop will be another chance to buy into hvu.to. I have to see how much hvu.to sinks on Monday.

    I am in Saskatchewan. I drove last Monday, on one of the worst rain storms that I have ever driven in. Weather here has been beautiful for the past few days.

    Also, for all of those people with back and shoulder issues, I have found the answer. Swimming! Lucky to have a swimming pool where I am in Saskatchewan for laps.

  28. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Good for you. I noticed with the heat wave ending here and cooler wetter weather has returned my neck has been aching once again. Been using the Thumper vibrator on it as it does help. I should try the swimming thing again. A lady I went out with a couple of years ago had a pool filled with salt water which was nice. Here is a Daily chart of HVU.to. I know you don’t use the daily chart but I like them for swing trades. Resistance at $16 and support at $12.38 and $11. I found a cassette tape of a Emini trading course I took in 2001 for $500 U.S. from a guy in Florida. Couldn’t find my notes etc but just found the cassette tape today. Forgot I had a cassette of the course. Don’t have a cassette player anymore though,lol. Can’t find one anywhere but I’ll call some electronic company tomorrow and get them to put the info on a disc. Been a long time since I used the system and that’s when I had Qcharts which was a very expensive charting service. But Stockcharts real time that I have now should work for trading a variety of similar markets.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVU.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p34532101473&a=388475769

  29. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    And here is the flip side of HVU.to being HVI.to with the $SPX overlaid. Very very oversold and due for a bounce back. Probably happen fast and can be hard to ‘catch’.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVI.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p92914086509&a=538952913

  30. Ana Says:

    #28 & #29 Ron/BC

    Thank you for the great charts! I have entered into hvu.to, probably too soon, but I am there, watching a 5 minute chart.

    Visit the lady with the salt water pool again, that is the very best for an aching body!

    I also went down a long slide a few times yesterday and sliced my elbow a bit on something sharp! I never learn, risky personality.

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