Tech Talk for Friday September 8th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday September 8th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 6 points in pre-opening trade.

The Canadian Dollar dipped slightly after release of Canada’s August Employment report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for August Employment was an increase of 19,000 versus a gain of 10,900 in July. Actual was an increase of 22,200. Consensus for August Unemployment Rate was an increase to 6.4% from 6.3% in July. Actual was a decrease to 6.2%.

Equifax plunged $18.70 to $124.02 after the company announced a massive data breach by a cyberattack.

FireEye, an internet security company gained $0.27 to $16.00 after Morgan Stanley raised its rating to Outperform.

Mexico ETF (EWW $56.41) is expected to move lower following damage in Southern Mexico from the strongest earthquake in over 100 years.

MasterCard (MA $136.53) is expected to open higher after KeyBanc and Susquehanna raised their target price on the stock.

Yum Brands (YUM $76.47) is expected to open higher after Oppenheimer raised its target price to $85 from $80

United Continental (UAL $58.58) is expected to open lower after Imperial Capital lowered its target price to $61 from $77.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/09/07/stock-market-outlook-for-september-8-2017/

Note seasonality charts on the U.S. Bank Industry, Telecom Sector, 10 Year Treasury Notes Futures, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply and Crude Oil.

Don Vialoux on BNN’s Market Call Today

Feel free to call your questions into the show today starting at 1:00 PM EDT today

 

Jon and Don Vialoux at the Toronto MoneyShow Tomorrow

Join us tomorrow for a presentation at 1:45 PM EDT

 

Recommended Presentation at the MoneyShow

Ralph Acampora gave a presentation to the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts yesterday. Ralph is known as “The Godfather of Technical Analysis” because of his tireless efforts to support and develop technical analysis services in North America during the past 50 years. His presentation was both interesting and entertaining. Well worth seeing today at the MoneyShow!

 

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Don and Jon Vialoux are speakers at this year’s MoneyShow Toronto: September 8-9th

Topic: Expected equity trends during the first 18 months of a Trump Administration

History shows that election of a Republican president following a two term Democrat president does not go well during the first nine months of his Presidency. Changes in Washington move slower than anticipated and the President’s mandates are delayed. Thereafter, a bull market in the U.S. ensues and the Canadian equity market goes along for the ride.

 

The MoneyShow Toronto 2017

Our presentation: September 9th at 1:45 PM EDT 2017

Metro Toronto Convention Centre

The MoneyShow Toronto 2017 is the premier education event for self-directed investors and active traders in Canada. Your no-cost, two-day pass will give you unlimited access to meet and hear from the most successful experts in 60+ interactive workshops covering exciting array of topics to fit your investing and trading needs. Join us as we speak about the topic above. Whatever your experience, portfolio size, or risk posture, you simply cannot afford to miss this event. Visit https://goo.gl/PMkw5X for information on registration, speakers, workshops, and more!

 

Observations

The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure.

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Weakness in the U.S. Dollar triggered a breakout by the Japanese Yen to a 10 month high

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Weakness in the U.S. Dollar triggered a breakout by the CRB Index

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Gold and gold stocks are the poster child for strength triggered by weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Two seasonally strong sectors into September on the move…. in opposite directions. See http://www.equityclock.com/2017/09/06/stock-market-outlook-for-september-7-2017/

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks today: Mixed. 15 stocks broke intermediate resistance. 16 stocks broke intermediate support.

Prominent on the list of S&P 500 stocks breaking support were Financials: $AMG $BBT $BRKB $C $GS $L $CFG $PGR $TROW $UNM $USB.

Prominent on the list of S&P 500 stocks breaking intermediate resistance were Health Care stocks: $ABC $AMGN $BSX $CERN $ZTS.

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Financial SPDRs $XLF lead U.S. equities lower after extending a modified Head & Shoulder pattern.

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European ETFs $EZU $IEV moved to new highs extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: Nice breakout by the French ETF extending an intermediate uptrend!

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Cdn. Financials move below support: $PWF.CA $POW.CA $XFN.CA

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S&P Bank SPDRs $KBE move below $140.36 setting intermediate downtrend.

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Editor’s Note: Regional Bank ETF $KRE has a similar pattern.

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U.S. Telecommunications ETF $IYZ moved below $30.88 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Editor’s Note: In Canada, Telus was hit. Its move below $44.38 completed a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Norbord $OSB.CA moved above $44.65 extending an intermediate uptrend. Hurricane beneficiary?

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Walt Disney $DIS moved below $100.50 extending an intermediate downtrend. Hurricane victim?

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Hudson’s Bay $HBC.CA moved above $12.38, $12.68 and $12.72 completing a base building pattern.

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Extendicare $EXE.CA moved above $9.47 completing a base building pattern.

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Dollarama $DOL.CA moved above $$132.22 to all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Editor’s Note: Momentum scores have turned down for most equity indices

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 7th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 7th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 7th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Keith Richards’ Blog

Keith asks, “How much left for the Loonie”? Following is a link:

http://www.valuetrend.ca/much-upside-left-loonie/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer slipped 1.40 to 54.80 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer slipped 0.63 to 51.25 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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22 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday September 8th 2017”

  1. Bernie Says:

    Dutchcanuck & Neil/Ab,

    Re: Pacific Insight PHI rival bid

    Fabrice Taylor has been covering PHI since he recommended it last summer. I copy & pasted the following excerpt from his (free) daily Capital Ideas Research newsletter sent this morning:

    Pacific Insight Electronics Corp. (PIH-T) Here’s an update on this recent cover story idea which was trading under $10 a share when we wrote about it and since then has received two takeover offers. The stock closed Thursday at $19.25. PIH has confirmed Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology Co. Ltd., has offered to buy PIH for $24.35 per share in cash, or about $190 million.

    The market isn’t convinced this potential deal will go through because PIH’s management has rejected the bid as not a “Superior Proposal” to the cash offer it got from Methode Electronics at $18.50 a share.

    One of the reasons for the rejection is that Kaizhong’s bid requires that company’s shareholders to approve it, which would violate PIH’s agreement with Methode.

    PIH has called for a Special Meeting of Shareholders on September 26, 2017. “The directors of the company and I have unanimously confirmed that we continue to support the transaction with Methode as being in the best interests of the company and recommend that shareholders vote in favour of it at the meeting on September 26, 2017,” said Stuart D. Ross, CEO of PIH, who holds more than 10% of the shares.

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    BAM/A.to pulled back to important price support at the $47.80 ‘area’ and its uptrendline and is testing this support area presently. With the 2017 H&S price pattern a Friday close that holds below this $47 level would be very bearish and suggest a sharper pullback. Price is already very oversold and could rebound here as well. Important price point now. The long term 2nd chart show a far less steep uptrend with solid support at $37.50. Time to pay attention to charts like this as the shorter steeper uptrendlines and price support levels need to hold or will come back down to their major long term trendlines and major support levels at much lower prices.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAM%2FA.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54173611388&a=503702433

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAM%2FA.TO&p=D&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68301888579&a=502811388

  3. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC:
    Thanks for information on CNQ.
    Yesterday, I was wandering if some of the stocks would come to supports I was watching for. Today it looks quite possible !
    Teck.B/TO has entered oversold zone on daily chart but not turned around.

    I need some guidance Ron/BC. I know you can never get the price entry or exit exactly perfect. But what should I watch for on hrly or daily chart to ensure stock has turned around. I have watched so many videos and read about it but don’t seem to find a method that works for me. You have any suggestions! I am looking for that one method that I can always use. One thing I have done is gotten rid of PIVOT points on my charts as they did make my indecisive.
    Thanks!

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    Start with long term charts and draw lines across price highs and price lows that repeat. Then draw angled lines under pullback lows and across falling highs. A multi year chart then should tell you the trend long term and short term. Stop bottom fishing in falling trends and choppy volatile stocks & stick to buying pullbacks to support prices and uptrendlines in good uptrending stocks which are easier to read. AND most important decide what price you will exit the stock if it goes below your entry price BEFORE you buy the stock and write it down and stick to it. You can always get back in if it turns up again. NEVER ride it down. That is the biggest reason investors wipe out their account. You only need the odd one that crashes to wipe out your account. It’s not a marriage just a casual relationship.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    After you’ve done a long term chart do a 1 or 2 year chart for more recent technical info. And couple of going oscillators like the RSI 8 or RSI 4 PLUS A 5,8,3 MACD or Slow Stocastics coming back from oversold recrossing over their signal lines tell you momentum has reversed to up short term. They may only signal a dead cat bounce so don’t get your life on them. And always be ready to exit a stock. This is a survival game so preservation of capital is always job #1. Don’t worry about missing anything. Leave that for the trading junkies.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    Regarding oscillators I always mark with a vertical line when the RSI 8 or RSI 4 recrosses back above the 30 line. Other oscillators such as the ones I mentioned in the previous post do much the same and sometimes better as they tend to drop down far enough to cross back better than the RSI at times. But the main thing is if you draw a vertical line when the oscillators are crossing back above their signal line. You’ll find each stock has a different beta meaning it changes price faster or slower than the major indexes. Soooooo, you use an oscillator that catches price lows “MOST” of the time. It may be the RSI 4 or 8 or 14 or even RSI 21. Or another oscillator that tends to signal when price is turning up again off a low point. That is a huge help in ‘timing’ your purchase if price is at or near support. And then you must insist price stays above support or you exit on a failure to hold support. DISCIPLINE is key as in most things in life. You’ll find one that works on some stocks but not others as some stocks may be too ‘volatile’ and perhaps should be avoided due to the lack of good signals. And with those too volatile you’ll see price all over the place. Those stocks make headlines but forget them as they are a coin flip. That’s what I see and believe but there are much richer,smarter and better connected people than myself, so check out other systems. Just insist whatever you check out works ‘before’ spending your hard earned money. The proof is in the pudding.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Re:MDI.to. Well there is the drop to $7.00 the chart suggested could occur on a support and trendline breakdown. Price is also very oversold. Doesn’t guarantee price won’t continue lower either. Need to see price clear $8.00 to get out of the woods.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MDI.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29082073067&a=543042645

  8. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC
    I like $$6.79 where I load up. Metals market got spooked today when it looked like China will not grow as well as expected. So much noise, you’re right “only the charts tell the true story”

    Been trying to figure out why bond prices continue to rise. Is some country buying US treasuries?

  9. Neil/Ab Says:

    Ron/BC; Dutchcanuck
    Re: MDI
    Don’t know much about this company, certainly not the fundamentals. Started following when Dutch mentioned it a couple of days ago. Obviously the market didn’t like the quarter. Also, noted a downgrade this morning (sorry don’t remember who). Also, the CEO’s statement wasn’t awe inspiring, being along the lines, “at sometime in the near future, things will turn around and our specialty drilling will again be needed.”. OK, could happen.
    So I pulled up a five year chart. Present resistance, high 8s low 9s actually goes back to 2014. I would think this resistance to be thus pretty strong. On a 5 year chart the more recent action does look bullish despite the very recent significant haircut. From here to resistance could be a good trade.
    So, while not for me, I can appreciate one’s interest.

  10. Neil/Ab Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Re: bond prices
    Don’t follow them as much as I should. If you’re looking at longer term, then you also have to wonder how much the FED is buying back to avoid an inverted yield curve signalling recession. So many moving parts!!!

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Neil/AB
    Agree with the $9 price resistance being a major one to clear. Here is the 2nd chart I posted yesterday to Dutchcanuck #22 post that shows the long term trend and resistance pts.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MDI.TO&p=D&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22210860034&a=543017040

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck

    Recall Bill Gross who founded Pimco that was the largest Bond trading company in the world with just under $300 billion to trade was dead wrong on interest rates and bond rates for a year or so or more and finally quit or was fired. So if he and his expert staff and their connections can’t get rates correct I don’t think anyone can with any certainty. When you think about it who would have believe rates would be this low over 8 years after a recession low and a descent recovery, along with the broad stock market indexes at record highs. And the U.S.$ selling off this much in 9 months but Gold still trying to breakout over long term downtrendlines. Quite an unbelievable combination of events……….

  13. Mick/NV Says:

    A lot of interest in MDI.to not sure why at the moment, did not have a great quarter and has not made money in a number of years. It is up 81% the past 2 years though as the mining sector has picked up

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MDI.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08920651925

    but the company is still a shell of what it used to be. GEO.to one of it’s peers has increased substantially over the same period and might be a better bet as it is winning drilling contracts over some of its peers. The 5 yr performance does not look good for MDI.to, better for GEO.to (at least a head of the TSX and the mining sector in general)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MDI.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62271509077

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a great site to find stocks in each sector with their prices,volume and other important data. Select which country you want and what metal etc. It’s called MiningFeeds. Check it out.

    http://www.miningfeeds.com/gold-mining-report-canada

  15. rick Says:

    Ron/BC , Neil/AB

    Check these links regarding bonds , QE and QE unwinding

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#US_QE1.2C_QE2.2C_and_QE3

    http://business.financialpost.com/investing/the-feds-us4-5-trillion-question-how-to-handle-the-great-unwind

  16. Kam Says:

    Usd.

    I have been holding USDCAD short for some months now since 1.33ish. Closed 75% and put a stop loss on rest at 1.2385. It might keep in dropping but I have no interest in squeezing the stone anymore.
    Later

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Rick
    Thanks for the links. I don’t think the issue is solvable but I’m sure all the countries will just keep cranking out I.O.U.s and keep the game going. Not much choice to do anything else and trying to solve the problem is political suicide.

  18. Neil/Ab Says:

    Mick/NV
    13

    I’m must admit to being a tad surprised to hearing you mention GEO.t. This is a very small (under 100mil market cap) company which is quite illiquid (often only trading a few hundred shares a day). I’ve held a small position since early 2016. It is my only holding in the ‘sector’. To hear you, with your knowledge and larger cap focus, mention it is encouraging. Thanks for the post.

  19. Mick/NV Says:

    Neil/Ab

    If you have held geo.to since early 2016 then you are probably up around 300%, congrats. I don’t own it myself but in comparison to mdi.to it has nicely outperformed, obviously not a trading stock though, but don’t need to trade to make money.

  20. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Filled the gap and down, down, down.

    Interesting day tomorrow.

    Glad to live in a city with a high elevation!

  21. Kam Says:

    Hi Ana,

    Spx,ES

    Bears have the setup to gap it down today but didn’t show up. Now with this gap up bulls have the ball in their hand to keep rolling up. If this stays up in the morning we have a gap and go towards 2500-2510 if it passes 2480.2455 is the support line now. BTFD is back .

    As this is 4th wave so I am keeping position small. I am short a little spy and xiv which most likely will be in red at this speed. Will decide tomorrow what to do with those.

  22. Ana Says:

    Kam

    $SPX $ES contract rolled over to Dec 17.

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