Tech Talk for Monday September 11th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday September 11th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 11 points in pre-opening trade.

Helmrich & Payne (HP $45.48) is expected to open lower after RBC Capital lowered its target price to $53 from $65.

FireEye gained $0.49 to $16.50 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight.

Teva Pharmaceutical gained $1.90 to $17.40 after naming a new Chief Executive Officer.

Apple added $1.88 to $160.51 prior to launch of its iPhone 8 tomorrow.

MasterCard gained $2.13 to $139.35 after Guggenheim upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/09/08/stock-market-outlook-for-september-11-2017/

Note seasonality charts on Canada Labour Force, Wholesale Sales and Wholesale Inventories.

Don Vialoux on BNN’s Market Call on Friday

Following are links:

http://www.bnn.ca/video/don-vialoux-s-top-picks~1204669 Top Picks

http://www.bnn.ca/video/don-vialoux-s-past-picks~1204641 Past Picks

http://www.bnn.ca/video/don-vialoux-s-market-outlook~1204623 Opening Market Comment

 

WALL STREET RAW RADIO with Mark Leibovit: September 9th

WITH GUESTS: BILL KOENIG, HARRY BOXER, HENRY WEINGARTEN, ERIC HADIK

http://tinyurl.com/ya2vb7xz

 

The Bottom Line

History is repeating! September historically has been the weakest month for world equity markets. North American equity indices moved lower last week: Tthe TSX Composite Index recording five consecutive days of decline. North American equity markets in the short and medium term are overbought and are vulnerable to additional weakness. Unexpected events triggering a short term correction frequently happen at this time of year. Issues this year that could create instability in equity markets include missile launches from North Korea, ongoing impact on the U.S. economy of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, Congressional inability to pass significant legislation and increasing talk of impeachment of President Trump. Select sectors remain interesting for traders (e.g. precious metals, natural gas and related equities and ETFs). Beyond these sectors, caution in equity markets is preferred until at least mid-October.

Economic News This Week

Canadian August Housing Starts to be released at 8:15 AM EDT on Monday are expected to slip to 216,000 from 222,280 in July.

August Producer Price Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a drop of 0.1% in July. Excluding food and energy, consensus for August Producer Price Index is an increase of 0.2% versus a drop of 0.1% in July.

August Consumer Price Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.1% in July. Excluding food and energy, August Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in July.

Weekly Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 300,000 from 298,000 last week.

August Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.6% in July. Excluding auto sales, August Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.5% in July.

September Empire State Manufacturing Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 19.0 from 25.2 in August.

August Industrial Production to be released at 9:15 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.2% in July. August Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 76.8% from 76.7% in July.

July Business Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.5% in June.

September Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 96.0 from 96.8 in August

Quadruple Witching (Last trade day for equity and index futures and options) occurs on Friday.

 

Earnings News This Week

Nil

 

Observations

Technical action by individual S&P 500 stocks was mixed last week.. Notable among stocks breaking resistance were Healthcare stocks. Notable among stocks breaking support were Financial and Consumer Discretionary stocks. Number of stocks breaking resistance totaled 38 while number of stocks breaking support totaled 35. Number of stocks trading in an uptrend slipped to 227 from 229, number of stocks trading in a neutral trend dropped to 68 from 73 and number of stocks in a downtrend increased to 205 from 198. The Up/Down ratio increased last week to (227/205=) 1.11 from 1.16.

Medium term technical indicators (Percent of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index) remained at intermediate overbought levels.

Short term technical indicators (short term momentum, above/below 20 day moving average) mostly mainly moved lower last week

Seasonality on a wide variety of equity indices, commodities and sectors turned negative at the end of July.

Weakest month for equity markets is September.

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U.S. economic news this week is expected to be mixed. Focus in the U.S. is on August CPI (rising), August PPI (rising) and August Retail Sales (slowing).

The outlook for S&P earnings and revenues remains positive following an encouraging second quarter report season. 73 companies have issued negative third quarter guidance and 43 companies have issued positive guidance. According to FactSet, third quarter earnings are expected to increase 4.9% on a 5.1% increase in revenues. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.4% on a 5.6% increase in revenues. For all of 2017, earnings are expected to increase 9.7% on a 5.6% increase in revenues. First quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 10.4% on a 6.1% increase in revenues. Second quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 10.2% on a 5.9% increase in revenues.

Uncertainties remain, notably assessing economic impact of two hurricanes, North Korean “sabre rattling”, failure by Congress to pass crucial legislation (notably tax reform), etc.

 

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 8th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Calculating Technical Scores

Technical scores are calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          Higher highs and higher lows

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          Not up or down

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          Lower highs and lower lows

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

 

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower.

The S&P 500 Index slipped 15.12 points (0.61%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (Also known as the S&P 500 Momentum Barometer) slipped last week to 55.40 from 58.12. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average dropped last week to 64.40 from 67.33. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks slipped last week to 66.00 from 66.40 and slipped back below is 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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Bullish Percent Index for TSX stocks increased last week to 58.47 from 57.26 and moved above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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TSX Composite Index dropped 206.28 points (1.36%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down (Score: -2). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Neutral (Score: -2). The Index dropped below its 20 day moving average (Score: -1). Short term momentum indicators are trending down (Score: -1). Technical score dropped last week to -6 from 0.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (Also known as the TSX Momentum Barometer) dropped last week to 45.42 from 55.83. Percent turned down to intermediate Neutral and is trending down.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average dropped last week to 42.50 from 50.42. Percent has dropped to slightly intermediate oversold, but continues to trend down.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 189.77 points (0.86%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Negative last week. The Average moved below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned down. Technical score dropped last week to -2 from 2.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial stocks dropped last week to 76.67 from 80.00 and dropped below its 20 day moving average. The Index is intermediate overbought and trending down.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ stocks slipped last week to 56.91 from 57.12, but remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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The NASDAQ Composite Index added 24.86 points (0.39%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have just turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6

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Russell 2000 Index dropped 14.14 points (1.00%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 0 from 2.

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Dow Jones Transportation Average added 27.72 points (0.30%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index improved to Positive from Neutral. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from 0.

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Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index dropped 46.70 points (0.81%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to 6 to 4.

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The Nikkei Average dropped 416.65 points (2.12%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Average moved below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to -6 from -2.

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Europe iShares increased $0.45 (0.99%) last week. Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move above $46.01 on Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned to Positive from Neutral. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4.

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Shanghai Composite Index slipped 1.88 points (0.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned lower on Friday. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6.

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Emerging Markets ETF slipped $0.27 (0.60%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6.

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Currencies

U.S. Dollar Index dropped another 1.44 (1.55%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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The Euro gained 1.75 (1.48%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Euro remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The Canadian Dollar added US 1.54 cents (1.91%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Canuck Buck remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The Japanese Yen gained 2.04 (2.25%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Yen remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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British Pound added 2.51 (1.94%) last week. Intermediate trend remains Neutral. The Pound remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Commodities and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 8th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

The CRB Index gained 0.22 (1.22%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned Positive from Neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are turned down on Friday. Technical score last week remained at 4.

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Gasoline dropped $0.10 per gallon (5.72%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Gas remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to 4 from 6.

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Crude Oil added $0.19 per barrel (0.40%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. Crude moved back below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score remained last week at 0

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Natural gas dropped $0.19 per MBtu (5.86%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. “Natty” moved below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators turned down on Friday. Technical score dropped last week to 0 from 6.

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S&P Energy Index gained 6.07 points (1.30%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Negative. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 2 from -2.

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Philadelphia Oil Services Index gained 2.38 points (1.94%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Negative. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -2.

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Gold gained $20.80 per ounce (1.56%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Gold remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Silver gained $0.30 per ounce (1.68%) last week. Intermediate trend remained up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Silver remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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The AMEX Gold Bug Index gained 3.63 points (1.70%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Platinum gained $3.30 per ounce (0.33%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength remains Positive. PLAT remained above its 20 day MA. Momentum: Up. Score remained at 6.

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Palladium dropped $45.85 (4.69%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength remains Positive. PALL remains above its 20 day MA. Momentum turned down. Technical score dropped last week to 4 from 6.

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Copper dropped $0.08 per lb. (2.56%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. Copper remains above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned down on Friday. Technical score dropped last week to 2 from 6.

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BMO Base Metals ETF dropped $0.66 (5.50%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned down on Friday. Technical score dropped last week to 4 from 6.

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Lumber gained $13.90 (3.71%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Relative strength turned Positive. Lumber remains above its 20 day MA. Momentum turned up. Score : 6
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Grain ETN added $0.15 (0.59%) last week Trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. Units moved above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned down on Friday. Score improved to -2 from -4.

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Agriculture ETF added $0.29 (0.51%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned Positive from Negative. Units remained above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6.

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Interest Rates

Yield on 10 Year Treasuries dropped 9.6 basis points (4.45%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Yield remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Price of the long term Treasuries ETF added $2.25 (1.78%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average.

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Volatility

The VIX gained 1.99 (19.64%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index dropped back below its 20 day moving average.

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Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 8th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

StockTwits Released on Friday

Impact of Hurricane Harvey virtually eliminated the year-to-date increase in the level of domestic oil production. See http://www.equityclock.com/2017/09/07/stock-market-outlook-for-september-8-2017/

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 9:45 AM EDT: Quietly mixed. Breakouts:$DHR $MU $SYMC. Breakdowns: $CMCSA $SYF $EFX.

Editor’s Note: After 9:45 AM EDT, breakouts included HSY, AJG, AIG, AON, WLTW, MCO, MMC, AET, BAX, BCR, WAT, DOV, RSG, SWK, CF, EXR, COO and URI. Breakdowns included NWS, KR, RRC, JNPR and NUE.

EAFE iShares $EFA moved above $67.54 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Enbridge $ENB.CA moved below $49.20 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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23 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday September 11th 2017”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    Very nice bounce off important price support on BAM/A.to. This $47 level does need to hold as a test of solid support to remain bullish.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAM%2FA.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71668452367&a=503702433

  2. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC
    On Friday I indicated that MDI would be a buy for me at $6.79. Guess what happened this morning?
    I’m in. Lets see what the future brings. This probably comes under the heading that “its better to be lucky than to be good”.

  3. dutchcanuck Says:

    AVO.TO an previous stock market darling seems to be breaking out from an 8mths rectangle on the daily chart and a pronounced inverse H&S on the 3yr chart. Some increase in volume on the right Shoulder, just like it says in Edwards and McGee.

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Yes price is testing support at the Fib 38.2% retracement level. Nice catch at today’s low of $6.79 and hopefully that will hold. It is very, very oversold so a bounce back should be seen here. The low volume probably helped the sharp drop too which should work on an upside bounce as well. But the long term chart shows major price resistance at that $9.00 level. All those who bought above $9.00 will be looking to exit if it gets back there.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MDI.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29082073067&a=543042645

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MDI.TO&p=D&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29740280987&a=543017040

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    The Edwards and McGee book Technical Analysis of Stock Trends was the bible of technical analysis. I studied that book inside and out for years. Very heavy book but if one spends enough time on the book it does make a lot of sense that you don’t forget. I have the 5th edition. Great book!

  6. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC
    Own 7 versions of it.

    It sems that the TSE now allows algo computers to front run orders on the exchange. Annoying as hell as it intercepts markets orders on both sells and buys. I have been experiencing this more and more lately.

  7. Kam Says:

    Ana,
    from last night post

    yes, Dec is the chart now for SPX.

    Hi folks,

    Here is what EW thought as ES gap up last night.posting again. I sold my spy and xiv short just before market open and flipped to longs. BTFD 🙂 Not married to dark side neither want to a pig.

    Kam Says:
    September 11th, 2017 at 1:57 am
    Hi Ana,
    Spx,ES
    Bears have the setup to gap it down today but didn’t show up. Now with this gap up bulls have the ball in their hand to keep rolling up. If this stays up in the morning we have a gap and go towards 2500-2510 if it passes 2480.2455 is the support line now. BTFD is back .
    As this is 4th wave so I am keeping position small. I am short a little spy and xiv which most likely will be in red at this speed. Will decide tomorrow what to do with those.

  8. Ana Says:

    #7. Kam

    Was not smart enough to see this on Friday. So did not profit on the gap up.

    So:

    Wave #1 2480.38 (Sept. 1/17)

    Wave #2 2446.88 (Sept 5/17)

    Wave #3 ??? 2500 ???

    Is this what you see?

    I am really a hack at this. Even worse that renko!!! 😀

  9. Mick/NV Says:

    Some of the cdn banks gapped up on the open this morning, not sure the reason but always nice to see. BMO.to has had a tough year so far, down 4% so any upside especially with a green elder bar might suggest either a continued increase or maybe stabilizing, gaps tend to close however so upside may be limited to around the $92 level

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p82602975219&a=454513450

    Stock is still up around 90% over the last 5 years so almost double your money.Has been increasing it’s the last few years and will probably continue to do so going forward, yields around 3.7% .

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64296028755

  10. Kam Says:

    Ana,

    Either B is pushed towards 2490 or this is ED and wave 3. At the moment we should be close to a pullback for 4th and as long as it hold support in 4th from 2473-2480 then 5th is big print of 2500. If price break below 2473 then this could still end up visiting lows of 2430.

    I am still learning this but here is a pic
    http://i1277.photobucket.com/albums/y490/betapro/spx%20sep11_zpsz7cdupgj.png

  11. Ana Says:

    #10. Kam,

    From the measurement of Wave #1, then Wave #3 could also be within the range of:

    2533, 2586 or 2673

    So might be many minor waves in between these.

  12. Larry/ON Says:

    The Bull Market Continues! – But it’s September? The market is supposed to go down not up. When you have multiple sources of bad news from North Korea to hurricanes wreaking havoc and on top of it we are in a seasonally weak period and the market just goes up up it tells you something about the strength of this bull market. We may still see some kind of correction over the next few weeks but there is not going to be anything in the way of panic selling but instead panic buying. There is cash waiting to come in on any dip that takes the SP500 down two or three percent.

  13. Pat/Vic Says:

    dutchcanuck re #6
    Can you explain how this manifests itself ?
    Are you getting bumped out of buy/sell orders?
    I noticed some strange pricing when I was trading Methanex today..quite a difference between the price displayed and the actual price (Questrade)
    Thank you,Pat

  14. dutchcanuck Says:

    Pat/Vic #13
    I put a sell order in on a stock that had a quote of 5.04-5.05.
    Put in a market order at 5.04 and the quote promptly wen to 4.93-4.95.

    Put in a buy order on a stock that had a quote of 42.47-42.48.
    Put in a market order at 42.48 and quote immediately 42.55-42.57.

    Coincidence, I think not.

  15. dutchcanuck Says:

    Bought some ENB.TO today for the grandsons RESP’s at 49.25.
    Can’t understand why it’s so darned cheap

  16. Pat/Vic Says:

    dutchcanuck re #14
    OK..I have had that happen to me a number of times on market orders so I switched to limit orders.Now I will get my price or better “IF” the order fills.
    Cheers,Pat

  17. Larry/ON Says:

    RE: 14. You can’t put market orders on thinly traded stocks without expecting to give up some money. What were your level two quotes showing? Were there a number of orders between 5.05 and 4.95 or just a couple of hundred shares? I repeatedly see split second order changes on thinly traded stocks as soon as I enter a market order after the level two screen is unchanged for the longest time. I know I am trading against a computer. Try trading ADRs were there is no bid or ask provided and all you have to go on is the last traded price.

  18. Bernie Says:

    dutch,

    Re: #15 ENB
    On the most part Americans didn’t like it when Enbridge bought Spectra Energy. I heard a lot of SE shareholders sold on the acquisition news. Canadian stocks aren’t popular in the U.S., especially with the dividend set. They don’t care for the exchange rate, our economy or our lack of support for energy in general.

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    I gave up trying to get fills at the bid/ask price area and always offer more than the present ask to jump over other orders to get a fill. Don’t care about a few cents above the ask if I want the stock immediately. Same thing with the sell orders I put in a sell below the bid and get a fill instantly. I missed far too many trades both ways the regular way especially with the $TSX stocks. Now I’m in or out when I want or need to be.

  20. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    You are correct with the Anti Canadian Oil business mind set. The CD government has far too many environmental rules and regulations and just adds to them which is the opposite of what the U.S. is doing. Apache Oil dumped it’s Canadian holdings for that reason recently and that doesn’t go unnoticed by other U.S. and foreign firms. With Oil at a critically low price and Canadian provinces refusing to allow piping the stuff across Canada and making shipping more expensive and slower I can’t see foreign money pouring into Canadian oil stocks. But as usual the charts will tell the tale best……

  21. Ron/BC Says:

    WATCH the U.S.$. Price has tested the May 2016 low and opened today at the low of the day and closed near the high of the day and right at an important price point. A reversal on the U.S.$ could trash a lot of markets that trade inverse to it including other currencies and precious metals etc. Critical price point for the U.S.$ here. A further breakdown that holds from here will do the opposite and see inverse markets rally much more. The 2nd chart shows the importance of holding at this important price level.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07934008046&a=247355082

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59298191990&a=388965041

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a good example of the effect of the U.S.$ on the Canadian banks. As an example the first chart is the Royal Bank on the NYSE RY. Note price presently at a double top trying to breakout to new highs. Very bullish chart! See the same stock that trades on the NYSE overlaid in pink. BIG difference! The 2nd chart is also the Royal Bank on the $TSX RY.to with the RY on the NYSE overlaid in pink. Price of RY.to topped out in February and after a selloff into May had a much lower high in July and last Friday broke below the May lows. Very bearish chart with lower high and lower low. Price today re-cleared that low point and gaped up and with bullish oscillators looks good for a further rally. But all this with the same stock on two different exchanges using U.S.$ and CD$. BUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT my main point is “IF” the U.S.$ is reversing here the exact opposite effect will occur with the $TSX listed stocks rallying sharply and the U.S. listed stocks on the NYSE acting poorly relative to them. Add that to a reversal with markets that trade inverse to the U.S.$ and you could have quite a change in character ahead. Time to pay attention…………………………

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05769936833&a=527603110

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99940482920&a=441076408

  23. Kam Says:

    Ana,

    3 wave of larger have a target north of 2600.
    I decided to sell my XIV holding in AH so down holding none. Better to stay away then chase to get your money back in this 4th.If we falter here still looking at 2420-30 easily.Either way last pull back is not enough at the moment to satisfy EW wave 4th pull back. We will see.

    Larry/On,

    Please keep posting every few days reminding us it’s a bull market especially on days when it makes new highs.That way I won’t try to STFR.

    Ron/BC,

    Re banks on NYSE and TSX
    my opinion is diff on this one. If the USD ripped up, I don’t know if tsx banks will rally based on that.I think NYSE might fall.
    The rationale is that Canadian banks are only one of the few stock with dual listing where TSX stocks have 3-5 times volumes and are price makers. Nyse listed Canadian banks are price takers. So NYSE one’s will do what TSX one will tell them.

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