Tech Talk for Wednesday September 13th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday September 13th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 3 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the August Producer Price Index. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in July. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, consensus for the August Producer Price Index was an increase of 0.2% versus a drop of 0.1% in July. Actual was an increase of 0.1%.

Nordstrom gained $2.95 to $48.00 on news that it has taken steps to go private.

DowDupont added $0.03 $68.55 after Cowen and SunTrust raised their target price on the stock

Fitbit (FIT $6.26) is expected to open higher after announcing plans to develop a diabetes monitoring product.

American Airlines dropped $0.04 to $46.25 after lowering third quarter revenue guidance.

Micron added $0.42 to $46.25 after Goldman Sachs raised its rating to Buy from Neutral.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/09/12/stock-market-outlook-for-september-13-2017/

Note seasonality charts on the Health Care Sector, Materials Sector, Apple, Telecommunications Sector, BCE and Job Openings.

Another Milestone

Over 42,000 followers receive StockTwits comments from EquityClock. Previous milestone was set on August 21st when over 41,000 followers received comments.

Observations

Apple: Traders sell on news?

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The U.S. Dollar Index recovered yesterday against major world currencies except against the British Pound. Anticipation of a reversal of Brexit is having a positive impact on the Pound.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

S&P 500 Index $SPX moved above 2,490.87 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

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Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF $DIA moved above $221.14 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Job openings up 7.0% (NSA) in July, short of the 9.8% average gain for the month.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Bullish. Breakouts: $KSS $AMG $EMR $JEC $LLL $APD $CFG $MOS. No breakdowns

Editor’s Note: After 10:15 AM EDT, breakouts included ROST, DHI, TIF, ANSS, CVS, TROW and GPN.

Material SPDRs $XLB moved above $55.92 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Homebuilders SPDRs $XHB moved above $39.24 to a 10 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: The Home Construction ETF $ITB also broke to a new high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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“Gassy” stocks and ETFs $FCG $ZJN.CA responding to a 3% hike in natural gas futures. ‘Tis the season!

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Natural gas prices move higher from late August to mid-December $UNG

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 12th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 12th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 12th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer added 0.60 to 64.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer gained 6.22 to 54.77 yesterday. It has returned to intermediate overbought.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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20 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday September 13th 2017”

  1. vik Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Good read on TECK/B / TECK. It has been dropping back down for several days now.
    As they say its the slow ride up and fast slide down…

    It has now gone through 38% Fib. Do you still see potential support at $26?

    http://schrts.co/frCvf3

    Thanks,
    Vik

  2. Mick/NV Says:

    Not sure whether this will appear twice as my first post disappeared.
    Both RY.to and BMO.to covered gaps this morning, BMO.to moved above the main pivot point resistance yesterday but could not hold, today it opened above that level and for the moment is holding. If this level can hold price will probably move to around $92+, there still is a gap at around $89.90 that needs to be covered, a pullback may cover that level and would be a good entry point

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p51297586989&a=454513450

    For those that believe in seasonality, looks like BMO starts its seasonal period around mid Oct, so a pullback would also suggest a buying opportunity

    http://charts.equityclock.com/bank-of-montreal-tsebmo-seasonal-chart

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV
    I’ve been tracking NA.to as it has outperformed the big banks and is once again bumping up against its Feb/March highs at the $57 mark trying to breakout. Compared to the major banks it does seem to have more stamina than the rest and you don’t hear much about it,which I like. Not crazy about ‘belle of the ball’ stocks. AND it’s in CD$ on the $TSX and the chart still looks good! Just wondering what thoughts you have on this bank stock as I don’t track fundamentals much. Seems to have reasonable volume as well. But the chart has been impressive relative to the other banks.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NA.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36466128680&a=539541699

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NA.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p16700667832&a=384806970

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV
    Here is the long term chart of NA.to. It has outperformed most of the major banks since the 2009 low as well right up until the 2016 low and since then the nonperformance has not been as obvious.
    If anyone else as well has any thoughts on this stock please say so.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NA.TO&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88488450733&a=544307489

    http://charts.equityclock.com/national-bank-of-canada-tsena-seasonal-chart

  5. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC #3
    NA has no investments in the US which helps current performance.
    One friend I talked to this morning has the opinion that foreign investors are selling US bonds and buying Canadian paper. This might explain some of the currency trends.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Thanks for that. I guess not having U.S.investments would help the bottom line since the U.S.$ has sold off so hard since late last year. I also heard to everyone’s surprise that Canada recently was paying more interest on CD bonds than the U.S. I’ve never been a bond guy although I know I should have focused on that more than stocks. Interest rates and currencies are where it’s at. But the NA.to chart looks like a buy once it clears the present resistance. Would prefer a pullback to get long though.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Vik
    TECK/B.to is a real basket case with China politics involved as well as they sold off a huge chuck of this stock. But technically $26 is support and is a 50% retracment of the last rally and was the March low as well for support. But is a volatile stock to trade for sure. Similar chart with TECK on the NYSE. Very,very oversold but doesn’t mean price can’t get more oversold or have a dead cat bounce and selloff again. No techncial sign of a turn around yet.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TECK%2FB.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39478142486&a=491071783

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TECK&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89644690703&a=497769880

  8. Mick/NV Says:

    Ron/BC

    I used to own na.to, had owned it for quite awhile but it was underperforming the other banks , finally sold about 2 years ago and bought bmo.to , until the last month, bmo.to has been outperforming , essentially even now. Na.to was the first bank to increase its dividend after the 2008/2009 period, think it wanted to increase earlier but was asked not to do so by the Feds. There are advantages/disadvantages in being a ‘localized’ bank, I guess it depends on the outlook, it had a fair bit invested in the oil/gas sector which I believe caused the more recent underperformance, haven’t been following it after I sold so don’t know its status now but like all banks it would not be a mistake to buy it at the right price.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NA.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42656825008

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV
    Thanks for #8. I wonder if NA.to is still into the oil and gas sector. Regardless, the chart is bullish especially if it can clear that $57 resistance.

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of the U.S.$ ETF:UUP. Price is testing major long term support and has pulled back just a tad below that level. Since December the U.S.$ has sold off but has now reached a point where the rubber meets the road. A lot of price action in many stocks has been influenced by the U.S.$ selloff. What is critically important now is if price reverses back up again as that would have the reverse effect we’ve seen on many stocks since December. A rising U.S.$ would also see inverse trading markets selloff from here as well. And the charts of the Canadian banks on the NYSE would no longer outperform the same bank stocks on the $TSX. “IF” the U.S.$ reverses its trend here at major support the Canadian bank stock charts should rise sharply or at least outperform the same bank stocks on the NYSE which is the opposite of what has occurred up until now. And with the strong seasonal trend for CD bank stocks along with stocks and commodities that trade inverse to the U.S.$ this could be a major turning point in many markets. UUP is up sharply today but the trend down is still intact until further upside is seen. The U.S.$ chart won’t update until end of day.

    My big question is “IF” the U.S.$ is about to reverse back to up again what markets would you buy now??????? To me this is the most important question. And keep in mind the C.O.T. Futures Speculators are very, very short the U.S.$ and they always end up getting blown out of the water when they are all on one side of a market.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50925318771&a=537591283

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07934008046&a=247355082

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    I see FTS.to just broke down below its tight channel between $45 and $46. It also broke a 10 month uptrendline but is testing support just under that at $44.30 area. One can see on the long term 2nd chart that prices like many stocks now are a long ways away from their long term uptrendlines and price support areas despite good looking charts since the 2016 low. Always pays to respect those long term charts for timing. This is still September and historically is the worst month of the year for stocks.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTS.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p80668088419&a=505251651

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTS.TO&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20243002827&a=482742096

  12. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC
    NA is still heavily invested in the O&G business, but they have limited their exposure to cashflow positive, not heavily indebted cos. As a result they are now profiting from the industry.
    NA also made a new annual high today. Do not own but have come close several times.

  13. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC
    Fortis like other Canadian infrastructure cos invested heavily in the US in the past few years.
    This worked well until the US$ nosedived. Like everything else it worked until it did not.
    Been waiting to buy FTS and will when the currency reverses. Question is when and that’s why I appreciate your charts.

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Thanks for the info. Am presently at the golf course by myself. Partner is out of town today. I’d like to see a market sell off to major support levels. Almost bought FTS.to yesterday. Gotta watch getting too eager…

  15. Sherri Says:

    Anyone know what’s going on with T.BIP.UN? It’s all over the place recently. Thx.

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    BIP/UN.to gaped down on high volume. Don’t know why or care as it just did. More sellers than buyers is the real reason,lol. But if it can’t hold those July lows at $49.94 it has a lot further to go on the downside. I see BAM/A.to which is another Brookfield company also sold off hard and is trying to hang onto support. That was another one I was considering buying. Gee, perhaps I should stop looking for something to buy for awhile. You should consider yourself a winner by holidaying just ahead of those hurricanes in the Bahamas area. A little later booking date and you’d be a survivor in a tent somewhere,or worse.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIP%2FUN.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14999989990&a=535548556

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAM%2FA.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71668452367&a=503702433

  17. Sherri Says:

    #16 Ron/BC
    Thanks Ron. I’ve also been looking to buy this one for a while but will wait.

    NTR

    Yes, I am so upset. We shopped in St. Thomas in the USVI, then the next day we were snorkelling at The Baths on Virgin Gorda in the BVI, one week before the hurricane hit them. Such beautiful islands. Keep thinking about the people we met there. I really hope they get the help they need to rebuild, hopefully stronger structures as I can’t imagine this will be the last hurricane to blow through. Poor iguanas and lizards we sunbathed with in St. Thomas. Probabaly got blown out to sea!
    It was an amazing trip that I won’t forget soon in more ways than one 🙂

  18. Mick/NV Says:

    Ron/BC

    I am surprised you were considering buying fts.to as it is not a trading type stock but a dividend paying investment stock. I think if it drops below the s2 pivot point support which it almost did today it would be a good pickup, a drop to around $43 would be better but not sure if it will fall that low.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTS.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p26252532428&a=443111650

    The stock is up 10% this year well ahead of the tsx and it’s closes peers, and with a dividend that has increased each year for the past 43 which is likely to continue it is hard not to like it. Own a lot of this one and will be tempted to buy more if it drops further

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTS.TO&p=D&st=2017-01-01&en=today&id=p40319716111

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/nv
    I just liked the steady uptrend that never seemed to plunge like most stocks. And even a bounce of a couple of bucks makes a good trade with a thousand shares or even 500 shares. Easy money with a steady stock like this that doesn’t tend to sell off badly. The dividend is just a bonus if I held it awhile. But the long term uptrendline like most stocks is lower so will wait.

  20. dutchcanuck Says:

    Sherri #15
    BIP/UN floated a new issue for about $1B. Investors do not like the dilution.
    Short term pain for long term gain.

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