Tech Talk for Friday September 29th 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday September 29th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 1 point in pre-opening trade.

Equity index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for August Personal Income was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in July. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. Consensus for August Personal Spending was an increase of 0.1% versus a gain of 0.3% in July. Actual was an increase of 0.1%.

The Canadian Dollar dipped to US 80.43 cents from US 80.48 cents following release of Canada’s July GDP report. Consensus was a month-over-month increase of 0.1% versus a gain of 0.3% in June. Actual was no change. On a year-over-year basis, Canada’s July GDP grew at a 3.8% rate versus a 4.5% rate in June.

JB Hunt (JBHT $108.90) is expected to open higher after Stifel Nicolaus upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold.

PayPal gained $0.25 to $64.18 after Susquehanna raised its target price to $75 from $67.

Blackberry (BBRY US$10.47) is expected to open higher after RBC Capital raised its target price to US$10.50 from US$9.50.

KB Homes gained $1.00 to $23.22 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly revenues and earnings.

MasterCard added $$0.49 to $140.69 and Visa gained $0.54 to $105.12 after Canter Fitzgerald initiated coverage with Overweight ratings.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/09/28/stock-market-outlook-for-september-29-2017/

Note seasonality charts on Dow Jones Transportation Average, Russell 2000 Index, U.S. Dollar Index, Weekly Initial Claims, Natural Gas Storage and Natural Gas Futures

 

Jon Vialoux on BNN Television

Join Jon on BNN’s Market Call Tonight at 5:30 PM EDT today

 

Observations

Lumber prices continue to press higher.

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Lumber stocks and related ETFs are anticipating even higher lumber prices. Tariff on Canadian lumber that limit production entering the U.S. is contributing to expectations.

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Home builder stocks and ETFs are tracking lumber prices.

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Support for Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks radio show

We’re into the last weekend of the fall radio ratings season and we’re ending it with Michael broadcasting live from Tampa Bay from the office of the always entertaining Martin Armstrong. Three years ago at the World Outlook Financial Conference Marty posited that the Dow could hit 25,000 by 2018 due to the relentless flight of capital from more problematic markets. While some folks scoffed, others have made a lot of money as it has steadily risen not to 22,340. And he told us in no uncertain terms last Oct 22nd on MoneyTalks that Trump was going to win the election!

I’m hoping you can help us boost our numbers by sending a promo to your subscribers, social media feeds and databases tomorrow encouraging folks to tune in on Saturday, either by Listening Live, Downloading the Podcast or getting it via iTunes.

Editor’s Comment: Michael’s radio show is available tomorrow (Saturday) on CKND between 8:30AM-10:00 AM Vancouver time (11:30 AM-1:00 PM Toronto time)

StockTwits Released Yesterday

Inter Pipeline $IPL.CA moved above $25.53 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quietly bullish. Breakouts: $MKC $HAL $BLK $NDAQ. No breakdowns.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included OI, GS and FFIV. Breakdown: AWK.

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Pembina Pipelines $PPL.CA moved above $43.64 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Goldman Sachs $GS, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $235.03 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 28th 2017

 

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 28th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 28th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Schachter Energy Report

Josef’s September report has just been released. The report as a paid subscription is available at

https://www.schachterenergyreport.ca/ The report includes lots of interesting charts and data on the sector. Josef continues to rate the energy sector as cautious for value, bearish for sentiment and bearish for technicals.

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 1.00 to 66.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 2.89 to 70.25 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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26 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday September 29th 2017”

  1. Mick/NV Says:

    the cdn banks have been trending higher for about a month now, yesterday bmo.to moved above the r2 pivot point resistance , this morning opened above that level and holding. The stock is up around 6% since the sept low, but up just under 1% ytd, however bmo.to is now overbought and at some point will pullback. I have a full position in this one so won’t add more but a drop to around $91 or below would be a good entry point. There is still a gap at around $90 that may get covered at some point but am not sure if the next pullback will take price to that level. This has been a nice hold for me the last couple of years.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p82602975219&a=454513450

  2. Mick/NV Says:

    As we approach the calendar quarter end, been looking at my portfolio performance, off considerably from last year but then the TSX was up around 13% at this time last year. I am up 8.5% ytd, with my biggest holdings still T.to, enb.to, fts.to ,ry.to and aapl, the performance is good compared to the TSX (2.5%) and inflation (bc) up around 2%, but certainly could do better , the pipelines have been the laggards ( or should I say ENB.to, down 4.5% ytd).

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    The Canadian dollar $CDW has pulled back to important price support at $80. This was the breakout point that had been resistance in 2016 and 2017. A break below 80 that holds would suggest a weaker CD$ with sideways to lower prices expected. Seasonal trends show a top in late September and a downward zig zag into a late January low. $WTIC has a similar pattern from here and they both track together as a rule.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46732900221&a=522673478

    http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/futures/FUTURE_CD1.PNG

  4. Bernie Says:

    Mick/NV,

    Its great to see how others have done with their investments. Thanks for sharing & congrats on beating the TSX, if that’s your goal!

    I’m only up 1.8% YTD, probably because of my U.S. content and $USD drop. That said, I don’t care as I measure mostly for dividend income growth. That is up 11% YTD thanks to exponential compounding from reinvesting the dividends. My organic DGR is about 7.6%. I continue to like my DGI strategy! My plan is to start tapping in next year.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart that I posted awhile back after Tawny posted a link with this info on. I just reproduced it for her with a Stockcharts chart for anyone wanting to save it or reproduce it on other charting software. It is the difference in ‘yield’ between the U.S.10 year treasury and the ‘yield’ in German 10 year treasuries. Big money parks cash in treasuries that pay more than the others all things being equal. This affects the value of the currency. The yield difference (black line) is once again bumping up against 1.82 for the 4 time. Clearing this level would suggest higher yields for U.S.treasuries relative to German treasuries and a continued rise in the U.S.$. The U.S.$ sold off from December to September to long term major support and this is one more confirmation of a reversal in trend back to up again. How far up is anyone’s guess. But the change in the U.S.$ will have an impact on all financial markets on Canadian and U.S. exchanges.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST10Y-%24DET10Y&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61052640656&a=532603836

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59298191990&a=388965041

  6. NRG Says:

    Mick/NV, Ron/BC

    NTR

    Thanks guys for your continued contributions and charts to this website. As you can see I have backed off on my contributions since retirement. Three weeks until my wife joins me in her retirement. We have built up quite a portfolio of div/int stocks, ETF’s, GIC’s.
    With our income going down 80% we will be counting on our portfolio on a monthly basis to pay for our retirement. I hope not to draw down no more than 1% of my principle as I worry too much of the unknowns ahead of us. Keep up the great work as I continue to read this blog on a daily basis. If any readers are in the Phoenix/Surprise area of Arizona this winter let me know. Always have a stocked fridge and I know how to cook.

  7. roy Says:

    Hello Mick/NV – was wondering the same about ENB. Have held it and ENF for a while collecting the dividend,but maybe its getting ready to make up the under performance soon? Thank you and others (Ron/BC,Dutchcanuck,Bernie etc) for your great advice.

  8. BrianK Says:

    Dutchcanuk, surprisingly I got stopped out of the second half of my Veresen yesterday at $ 18.85. Not bad, the offer price was $ 18.65 but PPL was up yesterday. What about you?

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    NRG
    NTR

    Glad to see you have a plan and are working the plan. And if I and others have helped keeping things on track so much the better. And thanks again for your hospitality showing me around when I was in Arizona. Festival Arizona is quite the place all right.

  10. Mick/NV Says:

    Roy

    Here is a performance chart of enb.to, enf.to and trp.to, I am overweight in both enb.to and trp.to, ytd they essentially cancel each other out, I have a full position in enf.to

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENB.TO&p=D&st=2017-01-01&en=today&id=p06802212377

    their 5 year chart is much better, so if you held for this period you would have done well, not doubled your money but well ahead of the tsx. Since I have most of my investments in canada, I measure against the tsx and inflation (which is my Mer), as long as my real return is ahead of the tsx my portfolio is increasing in value, which is what it has done, no need to sell shares for any extra cash, dividends take care of that, at least for me.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENB.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08625940397

  11. Mick/NV Says:

    NRG

    I will be in Palm Springs for march, not sure if I will get over to arizona, but if so, will touch base with you

  12. roy Says:

    Hello Mick/NV – re # 10 – Looks like ENB and ENF are starting to claw their way back,but may soon be overbought? Still the trend is right and these to me are long term holds as well. Thanks for your response above.

  13. Mick/NV Says:

    RY.to has gone into a parabolic rise since the beg of sept, a 7% gain and now up 9.6% ytd. Like other banks, is overbought and I would expect a pullback of some sort. I do prefer seeing a gradual rise as I think they would be more sustainable than what I see in ry.to. I do have a full position in this one so wouldn’t be adding, actually wouldn’t be buying any banks at the moment. For ry.to, a drop to around the $93 level or below would be an excellent entry point for a long term hold.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p58190005457&a=402353557

  14. Paula Says:

    Mick/NV,
    You are correct that the banks have run up and look overbought. But if you change your daily chart to a weekly, it changes the picture:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p53292736840

    I am enjoying the gains in TD and BMO bought in August. Trying to hang on and stay with the trend instead of selling too soon. Who knows when it will end? Markets can stay overbought longer than we can imagine just like they can stay oversold…

  15. Paula Says:

    Similar picture on SU.TO on the daily vs the weekly.I bought back (partial position) into this on Monday after selling too soon last week. It’s hard for me to buy something at a higher price than what I just sold it at. This is part of recognizing a strong trend and staying with it, instead of trying to pick tops.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95484578399

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p13117017106

  16. tony Says:

    Paula,

    I think Mick was just putting up his number for this year and not from when he purchased is stocks.

    because if I do so then na.to is 13% fgor the year but since I bought it its up 50%

  17. tony Says:

    Paula

    15

    I don’t see why you came to sell last week the chart was positive.

    looking at your charts they have something my charts have but seems you are missing something in your trading that will make your buys winners most of the time.

  18. Larry/ON Says:

    David Prince on BNN giving a good technical analysis of turn in the US$ and where $CAD will go which he says is ultimately low 70s. Don’t know how sure I would be of that big a drop but he makes a good case for the change of direction. Look for the video on BNN.

  19. dutchcanuck Says:

    BrianK #8
    Still sitting with mine. Came close to pulling the trigger. Pembina is getting one hell of a deal, since Veresin is stsrting to click on all cylinders.

  20. NRG Says:

    #11 Mick/NV

    That would be awesome.

  21. Larry/ON Says:

    There is the video clip on David Prince re GDP growth and $CAD – He is an impressively smart guy.
    http://www.bnn.ca/video/how-raising-rates-too-soon-hits-canada-s-economic-growth~1221678

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    The 10 year yield difference chart I posted earlier that was bumping up against resistance broke out today in favour of the U.S. 10 year treasury yield over the German treasury yield. One more bullish confirmation of a trend change for the U.S.$ to up again. The CD$ continues to hold above 80 cents and while both tend to trade inverse to each other don’t always do so. Watch for the CD$ to hold or break below 80 cents for direction. Seasonals are bullish for the U.S.$ and bearish ahead for the CD$ as well. A pullback to 92 area for the U.S.$ would be typical first to test the breakout area. As always the charts will tell the tale best, as unlike analysts and letter writers, the charts have no skin in the game. That’s what I like about the charts,no b.s. to sell. Just like the old show Dragnet: “Just the facts ma’am.”

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST10Y-%24DET10Y&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61052640656&a=532603836

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07934008046&a=247355082

  23. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of DLR.to which is an ETF that holds U.S.$. DLR.to is bought on the $TSX with Canadian dollars for those that wish to hold U.S.$ in Canadian funds within an ETF. I have overlaid DLR.to chart with the U.S.$ ETF:UUP that trades on the NYSE along with the U.S. dollar chart of $USD. Both these trade closely together of course. The point is a person can buy DLR.to with CD$ on the $TSX if they believe the U.S.$ will outperform the CD$ and can stay in CD$. Note the above ratio chart of $USD:$CDW that acts as a guide to how the ratio is trending without watching the daily zig zagging a single price chart tends to do.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DLR.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94226739593&a=398695394

  24. Kam Says:

    I went thru last couple of weeks of posts as been busy so here is my comments and other 2 $cad cents.

    Mick/Nvan,

    Thank you Sir for patting my back for posting what I trade, wins or losses.I appreciate you taking time saying that. Means a lot coming from you.I have shoulder pain patting my own back for some time.
    All fun aside,I consider this blog as a place where mostly sincere and experience traders post charts or talk about trading and I just do my share of posting to give heads up what I trade in case some wants to do that.I have my head handed too in some of them but it is what it is. I can’t be just posting my winners which doesn’t happen at all to anyone. I thank you for posting your gains for the year. I won’t do mine till year end, as with my trading style I won’t know where I will be.

    Paula,
    thanks for your comments too on same thing.

    Ron/BC,
    I find Wave charts on paid EW and compare them to yours and then make up my mind.I like your USD,CAD or other charts and take them over most others so stay long and strong.

    Here is what I think about other things

    going back last few days I have read some posts here telling folks to keep buying market as its going up up and don’t be left behind without giving much of a reason and then few days after posting to stay away or be cautious. I hope people also post some charts or reason behind their original posts and sudden change of heart couple of days after. I have had posts which might sound like that but my reasons are EW theory as I follow it and posts targets. No reason taking people to slaughterhouse, imo.

    SPX,

    As per EW, Primary support is up to 2496 now on SPX and a break below 2487 and then thru 2480 will say that the Rally is over off Aug lows. As we are in ED and if it breaks then those crash like drop can happen. However as long as that support holds we could be setting up for another 50 points rally towards 2550-60 from 2500ish. Later

  25. Ron/BC Says:

    Kam
    Here is a Weekly chart of the $SPX. So far looking good but the last few months see a loss of momentum suggesting a pullback like the other times the Weekly chart saw this. I see price support at 2134/2200 which is the 2015 high that price broke above and then tested it successfully as support last October with new highs after that. I would expect the pullback to happen from October into January. Meanwhile we can all enjoy whatever ride we are on. That’s what stop losses are for. It’s not a marriage. And yes, there are flag wavers when the market rallies that become flag burners when it sells off,lol.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94023353758&a=386958827

  26. Paula Says:

    Tony, Thanks for your comments. I am just now catching up on the weekend posts. I understand your post # 16.
    I don’t understand the last part of your post # 17: “seems you are missing something in your trading that will make your buys winners most of the time.” I know that I often sell too soon even when the chart is positive. I am working to recognize trends and stay with them. It does not come naturally to me.

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