Tech Talk for Monday October 2nd 2017

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday October 2nd 2017

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 4 points in pre-opening trade.

MGM Resorts dropped $1.59 to $31.00 following the largest mass shooting in U.S. history in Las Vegas.

Metro (MRU $42.91) is expected to open higher following confirmation of plans to purchase Couche Tard. (PJC.A $24.30) for $24.50 per share in a cash and stock deal.

Chubb (CB $142.55) is expected to open lower after reducing third quarter guidance related to hurricane and Mexican earthquake losses.

Pepsico slipped $0.86 to $110.55 after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy. Target was reduced to $108 from $133

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/09/29/stock-market-outlook-for-october-2-2017/

Note seasonality charts on Energy sector, S&P 500 Index, Technology sector, Consumer Staples sector, Financial sector, Canada’s GDP, Canadian Dollar futures and the DAX Index.

Don Vialoux on BNN’s Market Call

Join us today at 1:00 PM EDT.

Jon Vialoux on BNN’s Market Call Tonight

Broadcasted on Friday. Following are links:

http://www.bnn.ca/video/jon-vialoux-s-top-picks~1221883 Top Picks

http://www.bnn.ca/video/jon-vialoux-s-past-picks~1221865 Past Picks

http://www.bnn.ca/video/full-episode-market-call-tonight-for-friday-september-29-2017~1213658 Opening Market Comment

 

WALL STREET RAW RADIO

FOR SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2017, WITH HOST, MARK LEIBOVIT.

GUESTS INCLUDE: DON VIALOUX, KYLE DENNIS, HARRY BOXER AND SINCLAIR NOE:

http://tinyurl.com/yba8vdkz

 

The Bottom Line

Equity markets continue to climb a “wall of worry”. Seasonally, North American equity markets currently are in the later part of their traditional period of weakness ending in the second week in October. Watch out for negative third quarter revenue and earnings guidance during the next 10 days related to hurricane damage. Accordingly, caution in equity market is preferred until mid-October. Beyond mid-October, seasonal influences turn positive, particularly for economic sensitive sectors (e.g. Materials, Industrials, Financials, Technology). Weakness will provide a buying opportunity.

 

Economic News This Week

September Manufacturing PMI to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase to 53.0 from 52.8 in August.

September ISM Index to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to slip to 58.0 from 58.8 in August.

August Construction Spending to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.6% decline in July

September ADP Private Employment report to be released at 8:15 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to drop to 150,000 from 237,000 in August.

September Services PMI to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to slip to 55.1 from 56.0 in August.

September ISM Services to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase to 55.4 from 55.3 in August

Janet Yellen speaks at 2:15 PM EDT on Wednesday

Weekly Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 265,000 from 272,000 last week.

Canadian August Merchandise Trade Deficit to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to $2.8 billion from $3.0 billion in July.

August Factory Orders to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.9% versus a 3.3% decline in July.

September Non-farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to drop to 95,000 from 156,000 in August. September Private Non-farm Payrolls are expected to fall to 117,000 from 165,000 in August. September Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from August at 4.4%. September Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in August.

Canadian September Employment to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 15,000 versus a gain of 22,200 in August. September Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 6.3% from 6.2% in August.

Canadian September Employment to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 15,000 versus a gain of 22,200 in August. September Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 6.3% from 6.2% in August.

 

Earnings News This Week

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Observations

Technical action by individual S&P 500 stocks was bullish last week. Notable among stocks breaking resistance were Energy and Financial stocks. Notable among stocks breaking support were Consumer Staple stocks. Number of stocks breaking resistance totaled 48 while number of stocks breaking support totaled 18. Number of stocks trading in an uptrend increased to 260 from 240, number of stocks trading in a neutral trend increased to 93 from 86 and number of stocks in a downtrend decreased to 147 from 174. The Up/Down ratio increased last week to (240/174=) 1.77 from 1.38.

Medium term technical indicators (Percent of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index) remain at intermediate overbought levels.

Short term technical indicators (short term momentum, above/below 20 day moving average) mostly moved higher last week to overbought levels, but have yet to show signs of rolling over.

Seasonality on a wide variety of equity indices, commodities and sectors begin to turn to neutral/positive beginning early in October and continue to improve to the end of October. See changes in seasonality ratings below. During the past 20 years, the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index normally bottom in mid-October.

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U.S. economic news this week is expected to show mild weakness mainly due to impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

Earnings reports are not a focus this week. Seven S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release fiscal third quarter results. However, the normally quiet period for corporate comments between now and first week in October could be busier than usual this year. Several companies lowered their third quarter earnings and revenue guidance last week mainly due to the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Look for more companies to lower guidance during the next 10 days.

The outlook for S&P earnings and revenues remains positive. 76 companies have issued negative third quarter guidance and 42 companies have issued positive guidance. According to FactSet, third quarter earnings are expected to increase 4.2% on a 5.0% increase in revenues. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.2% on a 5.7% increase in revenues. For all of 2017, earnings are expected to increase 9.6% on a 5.7% increase in revenues. First quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 10.3% on a 6.1% increase in revenues. Second quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 10.3% on a 5.9% increase in revenues.

Short term uncertainties remain, including assessment of impact of two hurricanes on the U.S. economy, North Korean “sabre rattling”, slow progress by Congress to pass crucial legislation (notably tax reform) and increased scrutiny by special council on Russia’s influence on the Presidential election.

Prospects beyond the third quarter report season are exceptional for U.S. based companies with international exposure. Consensus for S&P 500 earnings on a year-over-year are expected to exceed 10% in the fourth quarter of 2017, first quarter of 2018 and second quarter of 2018. Earnings will benefit significantly from weakness in the U.S. Dollar on a year-over-year basis when revenues and earnings from international operations will benefit from higher valued foreign currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index averaged 100 in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 101 in the first quarter of 2017. If the U.S. Dollar Index currently near 93 maintains that average in the fourth quarter of 2017, revenues and earnings from international operations will be boosted from currency alone by 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016 and by 8.6% in the first quarter of 2018.

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 29th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Calculating Technical Scores

Technical scores are calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          Higher highs and higher lows

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          Not up or down

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          Lower highs and lower lows

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

 

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower.

S&P 500 Index gained 17.14 points (0.68%) last week to an all-time high. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned back up.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 68.20 from 62.80. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 73.80 from 70.80. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week to 70.60 from 69.00 and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for TSX stocks increased last week to 63.71 from 61.29 and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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TSX Composite Index gained 180.71 points (1.17%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 2). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive (Score: 2). The Index remained above its 20 day moving average (Score: 1). Short term momentum indicators continue to move higher (Score: 1). Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 69.83 from 61.98. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 57.44 from 52.48. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 55.50 points (0.25%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Average remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned back up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks was unchanged last week at 76.67 and moved back above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite Index increased last week to 62.88 from 60.61 and remained above its 20 day moving average.

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NASDAQ Composite Index increased 69.04 points (1.07%) last week to an all-time high. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from 0.

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Russell 2000 Index gained 40.08 points (2.76%) last week to an all-time high. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on a move above 1452.09. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned to Positive from Negative. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 2.

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Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 209.97 points (2.16%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from neutral on a move above 9,763.66. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4.

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Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 4.30 points (0.07%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down. Technical score remained last week at -6

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The Nikkei Average gained 59.83 points (0.29%) last week. Intermediate uptrend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6.

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Europe iShares added $0.09 (0.19%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6.

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Shanghai Composite Index slipped 3.59 points (0.11%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -2.

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Emerging Markets iShares eased $0.57 (1.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Neutral. Units moved below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -2 from 2.

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Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.91 (0.99%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. However, technical evidence of an intermediate bottom has arrived. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The U.S. Dollar has a history of moving higher from mid-October to late November. The Canadian Dollar has a history of moving lower from late September to late November.

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The Euro dropped 1.30 (1.09%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Euro dropped below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Canadian Dollar dropped US 0.90 cents (1.11%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Canuck Buck remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Japanese Yen dropped 0.43 (0.48%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Yen remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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British Pound dropped 0.97 (0.72%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Pound remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Commodities and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 29th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

CRB Index slipped 0.10 (0.05%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed last week to Neutral from Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to 2 from 6.

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Gasoline dropped 3.5 cents per gallon (2.15%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Gas remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -2.

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Crude Oil added $1.01 per barrel (1.99%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Crude remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have just rolled over. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6

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Natural Gas slipped $0.01 per MBtu (0.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Positive. “Natty” dropped below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to -2 from 3.

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S&P Energy Index added 9.31 points (1.87%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Philadelphia Oil Services Index gained 5.93 points (4.35%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to Neutral from Down on a move above 141.21. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 4 from 2.

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Gold dropped $12.70 per ounce (0.98%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Gold remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -2.

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Silver dropped $0.30 per ounce (1.77%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Silver remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -2.

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AMEX Gold Bug Index dropped 3.00 points (1.50%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned back down. Technical score remained last week at -2.

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Platinum dropped $16.60 per ounce (1.78%) last week. Trend remained Neutral. Relative strength remained Negative. PLAT remained below its 20 day MA. Momentum remains down.

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Palladium gained $17.00 (1.85%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. PALL moved above its 20 day MA. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 0 from -2.

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Copper added $0.01 per lb. (0.34%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Copper remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -2.

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BMO Base Metal ETF added $0.11 (0.98%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -2.

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Lumber gained $9.10 (2.31%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength remains positive. Lumber remains above its 20 day MA. Momentum remains up. Score remained at 6.

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Grain ETN slipped $0.08 (0.31%) last week. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Neutral. Units remained above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 4.

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Agriculture ETF added $0.20 (0.34%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6.

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Interest Rates

Yield on 10 Year Treasuries popped 6.4 basis points (2.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Yield remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Long term Treasury Bond ETF dropped $1.44 (1.14%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Volatility

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The VIX Index slipped 0.08 (0.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 29th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

StockTwits Released on Friday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Breakouts: $LEN $MAR $EXPD $FBHS $PNR $SHW $RF. No breakdowns.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included WY, KSU, FISV, MPC and MAS. No breakdowns

Midcap SPDRs $MDY moved above $325.40 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Midcap SPDRs $MDY moved above $325.40 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.9% in October; positive in 58% of periods. equityclock.com/2017/09/29/… $SPX $SPY $ES_F

 

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Canada monthly GDP down 5.6% (NSA) in July, better than the 6.2% average decline for the month. #CDNecon #CAD $MACRO

 

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Accountability Report

A series of gold and gold equity ETFs previously were favourably mentioned in Tech Talk, BNN and StockTwits and supported by price and seasonality charts:

current price for oct 2

 

The period of seasonal strength for gold, gold equities and gold ETFs has ended. Results were mixed at best. The sector has a history of moving lower in the month of October. The sector no longer is supported as a seasonal trade.

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A series of natural gas and “natty” ETFs were favourably mentioned in Tech Talk, StockTwits and BNN and supported by price and seasonality reports

current price for oct 2 part b

 

The ideas were based on expectations for a recovery in natural gas prices from the end of August to the second week in December (helped partially by hurricane season that was expected to shut down production in the Gulf and cause a corresponding decline in U.S. inventories). After a brief upside price move by natural gas prices two weeks ago, storage levels did not come down below seasonal levels as expected, “natty” prices weakened, strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned negative and short term momentum indicators turned down. Accordingly, the sector no longer is supported. Take profits in “gassy” equities and ETFs.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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30 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday October 2nd 2017”

  1. tony Says:

    Paula

    if you’ld like you can contact me, at starwind1973@gm..l.com

    and I’ll be glad to chat over your chart(s) and what you are doing wrong.

  2. NRG Says:

    Emera EMA increased dividend 8.13%

    BRE.UN Brookfield Real Estate increased dividend 3.8% as reported Aug31 payable Sept 30

  3. NRG Says:

    PPL Pembina Pipeline

    Increases dividend 5.9% on top of the previous 6.25% increase in April. Awesome.

  4. NRG Says:

    PPL Pembina Pipeline

    I am so happy I bought another 100 shares this morning.

  5. NRG Says:

    CGY Calien Group

    Announced 1 billion Health Service contract Renewal. Stock up 9%

  6. Sandra Says:

    TSX is overbought and resistance at 15700 ( mid June).
    Will it go higher even if overbought ??

  7. Mick/NV Says:

    CNQ.to gapped down on the open this morning with a red elder bar, that gap was quickly closed and the elder bar is back to blue. With todays and friday’s price drop, along with the associated indicators the stock appears to be rolling over and may test the main pivot point support this week. Of course how far it will drop, if further, will depend on the price of oil which is down about $1 this morning (last time I looked). Would like to see CNQ.to drop to the s1 pivot point support or below as I think that would be a good entry point. I have 1/2 a position in it and would like to add more.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p00851195733&a=485258366

  8. Mick/NV Says:

    Nice to see EMA.to increase it’s dividend as noted by NRG above. The stock looks like it may head higher although essentially flat so far this morning. Up a little over 7.5% ytd, trailing it’s peers fts.to and cu.to, might have been somewhat hurt by the hurricane damage in Florida.
    Also have a 1/2 position in this one and would like to add more, won’t do it at the current price though, if it drops down to the $46 area again or below will be buying as I consider that to be a good entry point for a long term hold.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EMA.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96153003920&a=504889876

  9. Sandra Says:

    MICK/NV: CNQ is on my radar to!

    As per guest Philip Strible on commodity BNN, he sees OIL pulling back with support at $49.
    CNQ-N now support appears at 38% retracement $31.70 and CNQ-TO found support near $40.10 ( moved back up at 40.20) failing that 38% retracement level $40.

    Hopefully, RON/BC will read this and correct me. 🙂

  10. Larry/ON Says:

    RON/BC – What do you think about the trading channel of the SP500? Are we looking at at top around 2550 and then a retreat back to the 50 day MA again if pattern holds or if we get something more of a correction (which would be more healthy) we go down to 2400 to meet the 200day MA just in time for the October season then resetting the market for a winter bull. In any case you are not looking at anything more than 6% downside.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of the Canadian dollar again $CDW. A simple way to make some money is to switch currencies from Canadian to American and back again at key price points. I have all my RIF money now in American dollars that I switched to at the recent high near 83 when it topped out with weak momentum indicators. The pullback in this short time frame is 3 cents which on a $100K account is $3000 profit without the same risk as stocks that all soar and plunge over time for a variety of reasons. The big difference is the worst thing that can happen with the two currencies is you are in one or the other currency or some of each. Not such a bad fate with neither of which is likely to crash or be suspended etc. And you can switch at important turning points again and again. Doesn’t get much simpler. ETFs for this are FXC,UUP,DLR.to or just call your broker but they will charge about .9 cents to switch end of day. Presently the CD$ is at important price support at the 80 cent level. A breakdown here would end this run up for some time. Seasonal trends are bearish from here as is $WTIC which has a strong correlation with the CD$. Add to that the B.O.C. governor now questioning the strength of the Canadian economy and interest rate increases along with what appears to be a reversal back up in the U.S.$ and odds favour a further pullback in the CD$, breaking its uptrend. Meanwhile price is still holding at the 80 level support and hasn’t broken down yet.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08926019865&a=511944637

    http://charts.equityclock.com/canadian-dollar-futures-cd-seasonal-chart

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    NRG

    I came across this stock on the weekend and thought you must own this one. NRG recently cleared $2290 resistance and looks good above this resistance level.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NRG&p=D&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04591139040&a=547940467

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Larry/ON
    Here is a Daily long term chart of the $SPX. The long term uptrendline AND the 2015 high was cleared in 2016 was major price resistance and is also at this 2130 level. That price point is major support. One can see the steep rally from the early 2016 low that appears on many stock charts. It’s that steep uptrendline from 2016 that must hold or there will be much more downside at that uptrendline is now at 2400 which is also its 200ema. I posted a long term chart with more technicals on Friday. The 2nd chart is from the low in 2016 to date which has a much steeper uptrendline than the long term chart. I’ve used ema moving averages rather than simple moving averages as I’ve found they track price better and prices seem to respect them better. In any case note the 20ema riding above the 50ema defines the trend which these two averages tend to do. The 200ema rides along the long term uptrendline which it often does on many markets. I’ve marked support levels on the horizontal lines. First support is 2490 and more significant support is 2400 which is also the uptrendline from that early 2016 low and the 200ema. That uptrendline at 2400 must hold to suggest continued strength ahead and if it fails there would be much more downside towards its long term uptrendline and lower support levels. That’s what I see on the chart fwiw………..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44038091823&a=500281707

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19743187062&a=547946767

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    Look at a long term chart of CNQ.to and where do you think major long term resistance is and then look where price presently is. That’s what would be most concerned about other than a short term trade here and there.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ.TO&p=D&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05041493597&a=502815556

  15. polish1 Says:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ARDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62650456712&a=547188527&listNum=59
    popped today over the trendline

  16. Bernie Says:

    RRIF Questions,

    I’m about to convert my RRSP to an RRIF shortly. My account is with BMO InvestorLine. I had planned on exceeding the annual minimum required amount via monthly withdrawals but just found out BMO charges $50 per withdrawal once the min required is exceeded. I’m not used to paying any brokerage fees outside of commissions. Is the RRIF withdrawal fee a standard thing with discount brokerages? If so, what do other brokerages charge?

  17. polish1 Says:

    A Ray Kroc quote that I thought can be applied to investing

    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more you sweat, the luckier you get.

  18. polish1 Says:

    Interesting read on the shortage of cobalt
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4110450-cobalt-cliff-will-crush-teslas-business-may-restore-sanity-ev-industry

  19. Mick/NV Says:

    So TD.to hit an all time high today, surpassing Fridays high and also Feb 2017 high. Here is the weekly chart, overbought, way overbought on the daily chart, up 12% since it’s aug lows. up 10.5% ytd, can’t go wrong holding any of the big 5 banks, just need to pick a good entry point. Have a full position which is now overweight so won’t be adding or selling.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p42141756904&a=547962324

  20. polish1 Says:

    SPX
    This Sept is officially the lowest volatility of any Sept in history

  21. Mick/NV Says:

    Bernie

    #16

    I assume you are not referring to the withholding tax. I know that I transferred stocks to my cash account from my rrsp (thru TDW) and I believe I was charged $25 to do that, I am a few years away from converting to a rrif so am unsure whether they would charge a fee on top of the withholding tax, but my guess would be yes.

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the $TSX chart. Price is once again trying to clear the 3 year old high from 2014.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TSX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76775337718&a=415291117

  23. polish1 Says:

    Bernie
    #16 With TD there is no extra cost on exceeding the annual minimum required amount via monthly withdrawals.

  24. Paula Says:

    Tony,perhaps you could try explaining what I am doing wrong on this discussion board. That way everyone could learn. Thanks!

  25. Ron/BC Says:

    CM.to is in a battle with the buyers and short sellers at the $109 level resistance level. I price can clear and hold above this price level the short sellers will likely throw in the towel and see price move towards $118. Note the price on CM on the NYSE overlaid in pink and see how well price has been doing due to the falling U.S.$ plus the rising CD$. A reversal in the currencies will see this reverse again with the $TSX listed CM.to outperforming the NYSE listed CM. Will be interesting to watch unfold. Same thing with BMO.to approaching $96 resistance.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CM.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69274050549&a=541033609

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p29369499394&a=519062680

  26. Larry/ON Says:

    CM – Thanks RON/BC for the chart. The one thing I have figured out is that short sellers are not necessarily that smart. They get keep getting caught on the Cdn Banks. All you have to do is wait out the Americans like the Taliban does “They have all the watches but we have all the time” (bad joke). It is fundamentals that underpins everything. Sooner or later the massive discount on CM compared to the other banks has to narrow. If you factor in dividends these guys are already underwater and the pain is going to be ratcheted up. It’s an overhang of buying that will enter the market as some point.
    I start seeing the same chart on financials be it Canadian and US everywhere. It is a triangle with a flat top with a rising 200 day MA slowly closing the gap. XLF popped through this in mid-September and I think we are set up for another leg of the bull-run on US and Canadian banks. BAC just popped through the 52 week high. TD (both USD and CAD) and RY (USD) have done it. CM will do the same. If we have a correction it will be very temporary. Also, everyone has so much difficulty believing that Canadian banks can actually do this this fall. Canadians need to ditch the pessimism.

  27. Ron/BC Says:

    Larry/ON
    The short sellers just trade the charts and really don’t care if they are right or wrong as they enter and exit with their set limits. That’s what many do for a living and do well. I know all the major Canadian banks themselves have rooms full of traders that buy AND SHORT the CD banks and currencies and stocks as well as Americans. They are all just trades to make money and nothing more. All these traders will tell tales trying to spook others into joining them or exiting their positions as it is just business. I know the Canadian banks a few years ago all stated publicly at the same time that the Canadian dollar over valued and was going to fall to something like 62 cents right when the CD$ was at a much higher price support level. They were trying to break it down with their high profile opinions and were extremely short expecting huge gains on the selloff. The CD$ started to selloff and then bounced back and started to rally with short covering and fresh buying. The Canadian banks were one of the biggest short sellers that were covering as the financial news media reported. So they all do the same thing. CD banks are far more diversified and protected and restricted in their speculation than American banks so tend to do well most of the time but do selloff big time like the 18 months from mid 2014 to early 2016. But American banks are viewed by Americans like any other company that can go broke and just fail so will short the CD banks like they would their own. But they’ll just get stopped out more often or make a quick buck and exit. Canadian bank’s long term charts show a wide range of prices so are subject to bull and bear markets like anything else. They just have sustainability unlike most other companies and will bounce back regardless. Some investors and traders are just fussy where their entry point and exit point is as they look for a capital gain not just a buy and hold with a dividends stock to own. As you can see on this RY.to chart you could have bought RY.to under twenty bucks in 2009 and just over $60 in early 2016. And now price is over $97! So where a person enters is very important as well as where they exit.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72589031618&a=422272328

  28. Neil/Ab Says:

    Sold my FNV.t this morning at a 5%loss. I guess not a well thought out trade. I bought when it seemed gold had rebounded and I figured the N. Korean/U.S. war of words could well send gold much higher. Not so it seems. Took the now diminished cash and added a bit to Photon Controls and Premium Brands (PBH.t)
    I also note that ZCL.t has been trading in a pretty tight range between 12ish and 13.50 for about 6 months. Looks like it is a candidate for a break one way or the other. There seems to be really good support at 12, so I suspect the downside is limited. I also suspect the direction of the break will be governed by their next reporting. It has recently been a good divi stock both in terms of increases and specials. Don’t know if this can continue.

  29. Bernie Says:

    Re: 21 & 23.

    Thanks for your reply Mick/NV. Yes, I was only referring to the withdrawal fee, not withholding taxes. That fee may only apply to RRSP withdrawals.

    Also thanks polish1. Would you possibly have a link to the page where this is spelled out? If I could arm myself with the evidence I might be able to get BMO InvestorLine to match TD on this.

  30. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC :
    Re: CNQ.TO Not buying yet.
    Thanks for your reply. Looked at the chart long term. Lot of resistance and made double or triple top so will pullback. Oil has not found as support yet. So not bought any yet.
    CNQ that I trade also is pulling back.

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