Tech Talk for Tuesday October 3rd 2017

Daily Reports Add comments

Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday October 3rd 2017

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 2 points in pre-opening trade.

MGM Resorts (MGM $ 30.75) is expected to open lower after Susquehanna downgraded the stock to Neutral from Positive.

Helmerich & Payne dropped $0.85 to $51.26 after Sun Trust lowered its target price to $37 from $66.

Nabors (NBR $7.93) is expected to open lower after Sun Trust lowered its target price to $9 from $20.

Stifel Nicolaus initiated coverage on Yum Brands (YUM $73.75), Wendy’s (WEN $15.30) and Darden Restaurants (DRI $79.17) with a Buy recommendation.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/10/02/stock-market-outlook-for-october-3-2017/

Note seasonality charts on the Biotech sector, Pharmaceutical industry, Construction Spending, Goods Imported, Goods Exported, U.S. Dollar Index and the Chemical industry.

Don Vialoux on BNN’s Market Call

Taped yesterday. Following are links:

http://www.bnn.ca/video/don-vialoux-s-market-outlook~1222941 Market comment

http://www.bnn.ca/video/don-vialoux-s-past-picks~1222979 Past Picks

http://www.bnn.ca/video/don-vialoux-s-top-picks~1223014 Top Picks

 

Observations

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks yesterday: Bullish. Breakouts included BSX, CA, CERN, CI, CTHS, CTXS, CXO, HCA, ITW, LOW, MAS, MDLZ, MS, PGR, SRCL, STT, WYN and ZBH. No breakdowns.

Healthcare and notably biotech stocks moved smartly higher on news that a Texas court struck down the Treasury Department’s inversion law imposed by the Obama administration. Prior to the inversion law, health care companies were prominent participants in inversions.

clip_image001

Emerging markets (Frontier) ETFs surged to a new high.

clip_image002

Leverage zinc ETN moved above $10.86 extending an intermediate uptrend. Good for zinc stocks!

clip_image003

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Natural gas ETN $UNG moved below $6.40 setting intermediate downtrend.

clip_image004

Gasoline ETN $UGA moved below $27.76 setting intermediate downtrend.

clip_image005

Coffee ETN $JO moved below $16.38 setting intermediate downtrend.

clip_image006

 

Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 2nd 2017

clip_image008

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 2nd 2017

clip_image010

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 2nd 2017

clip_image012

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

clip_image013

The Barometer gained 1.40 to 69.60 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

clip_image014

The Barometer gained another 4.95 to 74.79 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



25 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday October 3rd 2017”

  1. polish1 Says:

    Bernie
    Concerning withdrawal fee
    Called TD and they told me that there is no extra cost on exceeding the annual minimum required amount via monthly withdrawals.Unable to find any documentation.

  2. NRG Says:

    RRSP withdrawl

    I would like to withdraw funds from my RRSP and move to Investing account. This is not a move to a RRIF. I would prefer to do this before I am forced to at 71?
    My reasons would be to delay my CPP until 65 and not having that added income to pay tax on. Has anyone here done this also. What is everyones thought on this?

  3. Mick/NV Says:

    NRG

    I have started moving my RRSP stocks to my cash account, will also move similar to my TFSA at the beg of the year, hoping to have little left for my rrif. The caveat is the withholding tax and fee (depending on the banks) that may get charged to your account and of course the income that will be reported on your tax return. I took my CPP at 60, haven’t regretted it, may not live to 71 or be healthy enough to enjoy the extra money.

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    HCG – I think this is setting up for a spike higher if we get above $14.54 but traders are really moving it in large swings both directions. It has been base building for months and this will just follow what is happening with all banks. EQB is the other laggard. You have to be really patient with these. I think there is a lot of potential with EQB.

  5. Paula Says:

    RE: RRSP Withdrawal. I am also wondering what the advantage is to moving your RRSP money to a RRIF, as opposed to a cash account. That it, if you move it to a cash account gradually, so as not to have too much income in one year. I know about the withholding tax and fee on each w/d (latter is $25 + HST at TD). I believe Mick/NV has talked about a pension tax credit but is that enough of a reason to have your money in a RRIF, where you are forced to move out a certain amount each year? If you have a cash account, you can take as much money out when you want to instead of being dictated to by the government.

    Ron/BC, I believe you now have a RRIF instead of an RRSP. Do you have any thoughts on my question?

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    I moved my RRSP to a RRIF earlier this year and treat it exactly the same as I did within my RRSP including switching currencies back and forth from CD$ to U.S.$ etc. No difference than when in the RRSP. I know that I must now take a percentage each year from my RRIF which I’ve elected to receive end of year rather than monthly so it’s like a bonus to me that I can pay my income tax with and if anything is left over I’ll put in my TFSA as I top it up to the max every year. I do like that end of year plan now with the RRIF payment. I was asked how much I’d like to withdraw yearly and I just said the minimum percentage to make it last. So it is optional what you take. And from what I understood you simply pay income tax on the money you decided to remove. I don’t believe there are any other charges for RRIF payments. I used to phone my accountant for questions like this but he would spend half an hour or more explaining it all and I’d have to make notes and in the end I would be shaking my head,lol. I think the best way to find out is call the brokerage you have your money in and ask for a rep to fully explain whatever particular questions you have. Questrade is good for this sort of thing. I suspect bank owned brokerages will have far more fees than private brokerages as they are experts in fees and last I heard over 40% of their profits are from fees.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    Everyone MUST transfer their money from an RRSP to a RRIF sometime during the year they turn 71. And then of course take a minimum percentage of the balance that Revenue Canada has laid out. And that percentage increases each year I believe. I guess there are also Annuities as well but don’t know anything about them and never heard anything good about them either. I’m sure you know this but thought I’d add this comment. But the point is you can’t hide the money in a cash account and avoid taxes from what I’ve been told. My RRSP and then RRIF is in cash much of the time in both currencies and it doesn’t change a thing. I can’t remove that money for any reason without paying income tax on it. You can remove it all and pay all the tax and then you have free cash to do what you wish with. But all that RRSP or RRIF money will go on top of your income for the year and you will be in a very high tax bracket for sure. But that is one way to get your hands on ‘most’ of your money in a registered account.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    BMO.to is bumping up against its July high price resistance at $96.50. A breakout that holds above would project a rally to its the $99 to $102 highs. Price like many in its group price is very overbought and won’t remain overbought forever. But that’s what stop losses are for. Meanwhile watch for the breakout. Note BMO on the NYSE overlaid in pink and how it has outperformed due to the dramatic currency changes in both over the last few months. Same thing with CM.to that is clearing resistance again after a failed attempt and needs to hold above $110.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p29369499394&a=519062680

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CM.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89825404057&a=541033609

  9. dutchcanuck Says:

    IFC.TO has dropped for the last 2 trading days as it received a downgrade to :Sell from Desjardiens. Came as a bit of a surprise. Analyst said they were subject to natural catastrophes due to climate change and they were highly priced. Other analysts have from Hold to Outperform to Buy on this one. Plan to take no action personally as I have owned it for a longggggggggggg time and expect a stock slit.

  10. NRG Says:

    Mick/NV

    Did you sell your securities in your RRSP and then move the cash (less tax and fees) and then re-buy in your Investing account?
    How did your broker hold back the taxes if you did not. Or did you have some cash in your RRSP that they held instead. I guess I will phone BMO and get the scoop on this procedure.
    Quite the choice to take now or wait until you are 71 and are forced to. I think now is better for my situation. As my wife does not have a pension we will take all of our dividends tax free. She may also do the same and bring the taxable amount up to the top of the income bracket that she is in. Once I start receiving CPP that will push me into a higher bracket so I might as well hold off as long as I can. Of course you have your health to consider and if I was sick or had health problems I would probably start taking my CPP now.

  11. Marcel Says:

    RE: RRSP Withdrawal
    I would be very careful on deciding what to do next with your current RRSP. There is no “cookie cutter” answer to your question as the answer lies in you specific situation such as current and expected future cash flow, current and expected marginal tax rate, current taxable income and expected future income, your age and age of your spouse, OAS or delayed-OAS, OAS clawback, and many other issues that should impact a sound and wise decision. I would not be too worry about the fees as they should be very minimal in the grand scheme of things. I think that doing the right thing with your RRSP for your situation is what really matters.

  12. Bernie Says:

    polish1,

    Re: #1
    Thanks for taking the time to call TD to confirm there is no fee on any RRIF withdrawals. I really appreciate it! I emailed BNS and CM yesterday regarding my concern. They don’t charge any withdrawal fees either. BMO will be hearing from me shortly. I expect they’ll drop the fees now.

  13. dutchcanuck Says:

    Apparently Fortis (FTS.TO) also took a fair bit of damage in the Caribbean with the hurricanes, especially in the Turks and Cacos. Source the Motley Fool.

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    NRG
    Years ago I pondered the question about taking my CCP at 60 or waiting until 65. My accountant said to take it as soon as you are 60 even if you put the money under the mattress. He did the math and showed the difference between getting your CCP from 60 to 65 for 5 years and waiting until 65 to start receiving it. Waiting until 65 you would only be even with the person who started taking it at 60 when you are in your 80’s. I forget the exact numbers but he told me to take it and do anything with it now rather than waiting. I guess there are higher rates of tax on just the CCP if it goes over your present tax bracket but even still it doesn’t pay to wait according to him. He was a former employee of Revenue Canada decades ago and is up on these things. But everyone has a different income and priorities I suppose. Now with the TFSA that CCP money can go in there and be invested as well tax free. I’ll be using my RRIF yearly payment to pay my income tax and put any balance in my TFSA, so don’t have to worry about removing income tax money from other accounts anymore either. Lots of ways to view it I suppose.

  15. polish1 Says:

    Tax tips for retirement income earners
    Take advantage of the federal age tax credit on your tax return. If you’re 65 or older, you may be eligible for an additional age deduction, depending on your income.
    Use the pension tax credit. The first $2,000 of eligible pension income is eligible for a 15%federal pension income tax credit, as well as a provincial tax credit that varies from province to province (some exceptions may apply).
    Generate income from non-registered investments. It’s generally better to draw income from non-registered investments before you use tax-deferred, registered assets.
    Elect on your tax return to include all Canadian dividends received by the lower-income spouse as part of your income in order to maximize the spousal tax credit. This may not be advantageous in all situations, so be sure to check with your tax professional.
    Split CPP benefit payments with a lower-income spouse in order to tax the income at a lower rate. This may help you reduce or avoid the impact of the Old Age Security (OAS) clawback.
    Make sure additional income doesn’t have a negative impact on government payments and credits you may be eligible for. Before you withdraw additional income from your RIF or other retirement plan, find out what impact it may have. For example, if your income exceeds $69,562*, you would be subject to a clawback tax on your OAS payments. Age credits, GST credits and provincial tax credits could also be affected. Check Canada Revenue Agency Tax Guides and your provincial tax office for details.
    Maximize spousal RSP contributions for the spouse who is expected to have the lower taxable income at retirement. This will permit more retirement income to be taxed at the lower rates.
    Apply for the GST credit every year. You may qualify after you retire, even if you didn’t before.
    Combine your – and your spouse’s – charitable donations on a single tax return to maximize the tax credit.
    Transfer unused age, pension, disability, tuition and education tax credits from the lower-income spouse to the higher-income spouse.
    *As of 2012

  16. Bernie Says:

    Regarding RRSP transfers to cash accounts or when to take CPP and/or OAS:

    I agree with Marcel (#11). There is no one solution for all, everyone’s situation is different. If you have any doubts it would be in your best interest to consult with a tax accountant.

  17. Mick/NV Says:

    NRG

    I had TDW transfer the stocks to my cash account, at the price I requested based on how the stock was trading (i.e. high price or low price or current price, if I remember correctly), there needed to be enough cash in my RRSP to cover the withholding tax and fee. So the transfer was essentially a virtual sell/buy or an ‘in-kind’ transfer not an actual sell/buy. I will need include the amount of the transfer as income for tax purposes, so be aware of that.

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    My post yesterday regarding switching currencies I used an example of how a 3 cent drop in the Canadian dollar would transform into a $3000 profit with a 100K balance. I didn’t mean to imply I put ‘another’ 100K in my RRIF as I just switched the balance of my RRIF CD$ cash that I don’t normally switch into U.S.$, as I had already switched my ‘trading’ cash to U.S.$ some time ago. Not that any of this matters, but one can’t put in large random sums of money in a RRIF. Just thought I’d make my post clear. I may have been hasty as well switching as the CD$ is still bullish and holding above 80 support. Only a break below 79 would suggest another downtrend again. Meanwhile if the CD$ can hold above this 79 level it could rally back to 83 and if crossing through it could run all the way to 90. Not that I expect it to but technically it could do this with the present chart patterns. Seasonals are weak ahead for the CD$ as is $WTIC and the U.S.$ tends to get strong from here. So odds favour a break in the CD$ below 79. But whatever happens with the two currencies all one has to do to fix things is wait for a reversal that always comes. Just can’t hold your breath waiting………………..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08926019865&a=511944637

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07934008046&a=247355082

  19. Neil/Ab Says:

    Just wondering if anyone else out there in TTland is a holder of CEF.A and if so any thoughts, plans etc. given the Sprott takeover? Sprott’s release suggested it would “open up $300 million in CEF shareholder value”. But,I don’t know what, if anything, that really means. I’ve never been a big fan of the Sprott empire, but I think that is based more on perceived attitude rather than business sense.

  20. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Thanks for your detailed answer to my RRSP/RRIF question. Thanks to all for this discussion. There seems to be a lot to think about …
    Thanks for the BMO.TO updates. Still holding on to BMO.TO and TD.TO. Instead of selling into resistance/picking a top, I am following the trend with an ever rising stop loss. Of course, I have tried this before and been stopped out for being too close. So staying well back, willing to risk more b/c the trend is strong. Willing to accept that I will not sell at the very top.
    Also appreciate the updates on your thinking about currencies…

  21. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    Glad to help. The main thing about registered accounts is you can’t remove money without them taking the income tax off ‘before’ you get the balance. At least that’s what my account has told me time and time again. And like he said when I complained about paying too much income tax “You get the roughly 80% and they only get roughly 20%”. Somehow that never made me feel better. As far as the BMO.to trade or any other trade keep in mind you don’t marry these stocks or ETFs and shouldn’t look at them like you MUST hold them forever or you will get caught in a bear market and end up riding them all the way down to the bottom. Just look at the bank stocks from mid 2014 to January 2016. And look how many other stocks have not done well at all despite what the experts predicted. There is no need to ride them down even with exceptional stocks like the Canadian banks. You mention stop losses which work well. Just remember if you get stopped out that isn’t such a bad thing as you are then back in cash and can re-assess your position with a clear mind. Not so easy to assess your position when you are holding a stock as the right and wrong mentality come into play along with ego. Tough to make a good decision then. And you can always buy the stock back when it pulls back to a significant support level that you have determined is good solid support. Or be satisfied that group has had its run and you’ve taken a nice big bite out of it and buy into the next sector that the market is favouring and running up. And I think you know where those support levels are and where to get onboard. It’s not a marriage,lol………

  22. Neil/Ab Says:

    Paula
    SU.t and Tony
    First, re: SU.t, don’t know when you got in but given it’s year long trading range, selling as it approached significant resistance is, in my book, a very reasonable thing to do. You were selling near the top of the channel. Can’t see a problem there.
    I thought your response to ‘Tony’ was spot on. It will be interesting to see if he will respond in public as to what he thinks you might be ‘doing wrong’.
    Kind of weird.

  23. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong update on Gold:

    “old has bounced off of our critical number 1362.50 and it has been falling like a stone. It is not ready for prime time yet. As I have said, gold will breakout when the AVERAGE person on the street begins to question government. That is not close yet and we must begin the Monetary Crisis Cycle next year before that possibility even materializes.

    Right now, we have INCREDIBLE support at the 1256.50 level up to 1269.40. A weekly closing below the 1269 will warn of weakness, but a weekly closing below 1256 will signal that a $50 drop is then likely.

    Gold peaked the week of 09/04, and now we are headed into the next benchmark target the week of 10/09.”

  24. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong update on the DOW and the Vertical Market:

    “The week of October 2nd was our target for a Panic Cycle. But this is to the upside for now. We are approaching Pi or 8.6 years from the day of the 2009 low on March 6th, 2009, which works out to be October 22nd, 2017. We are still within the Channel so a full blown breakout into a Phase Transitions has not yet taken hold. Yet this is clearly a Vertical Market move. That means the market trend remains bullish until we elect a Weekly Bearish Reversal. From the August high that was 21278, and the low on the correction was 21600.34.

    The correction in the Dow was largely sideways in dollars, but in terms of Euro, we achieved the 27 week correction bottoming the week of 09/04 and we have already elected TWO Weekly Bullish Reversals in Euro. This is what we have been warning about. Once we get past the German election and Catalonia, there is a clear shift in capital flows as Merkel fell to 32.5% when even Hitler took power in 1933 with 43.9% of the popular vote. The German system which allows for coalition governments has always allowed a leader to take power with less than the majority vote. Unfortunately this time, Merkel is ruling Europe with only 32.5% of the popular vote in Germany.

    The Panic Cycle for this week has materialized on target, but it is to the upside because of the currency influence right now. The Reversals will keep us on the right side of the market and we are nearing the resistance area at the top of the channel.

    Right now, it will take a closing beneath 22200 to create a short-term correction. Resistance stands at 22580 and 22916 with support at 22213. If we see a test of the 23000 level on the 3rd or 4th, this can be a temp high.”

  25. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    Thanks for the Armstrong update. Always interesting. I hope the new job is working out for you. Sometimes I wish I was still working. Back then I could take bigger risks in the market and when I screwed up with a questionable trade that wasn’t such a good set up I’d just work the weekend for the payback.

TopOfBlogs Finance Blogs
Entries RSS Comments RSS Log in